公募基金2023年配置展望分析報告：資產(chǎn)荒

010203043

/4

/?161412108:CPI::PPI::555351494745434139373551.9649.240.1020-2-4-6-8-3.605?:70::::50.040.030.020.010.00.014.012.010.08.0120.0100.080.09.860.06.040.04.0-0.4

20.02.00.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-0.70.0-20.0-40.0-60.0-6.2-2.0-4.06??::::160001400012000100008000600040002000030201003500000300000025000002000000150000010000005000000800%700%600%500%400%300%200%100%0%-10-20-30-100%-200%7??M2-M

1M1:M2:161412108121084000035000300002500020000150001000050001500010000500006462402-2-4-60-2-4-5000-100000-50008?37003600350034003300320031003000290028001400013000120001100010000900080007000600050009??3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%8002.26%1.106%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%8001.081.061.041.021.000.980.960.940.920.901.31%-3.25%80010?35%30%25%20%15%10%5%A0%-5%11AAAA5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%-3.00%-4.00%12?AAAAAA16.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%2023-02-012023-03-012023-04-012023-05-012023-02-012023-03-012023-04-012023-05-0113?AAAAAA4.00%2.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%-3.00%-4.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%-6.00%-8.00%-10.00%-12.00%-14.00%1415

/16???17?

理念：抓緊行業(yè)空間和優(yōu)質(zhì)公司兩個點，適當(dāng)放開估值容忍度。?

框架：從宏、中觀角度出發(fā)，優(yōu)選行業(yè)獲取超額收益。在行業(yè)配置基礎(chǔ)上，逆向思維精選個股。?

組合：主動管理組合回撤，提升組合安全邊際。1830%20%10%0%----120%100%80%60%40%20%0%(-)--800-800--10%-20%-30%-20%19?_300_500__300_1000__500_1000_20001.31.251.21.091.071.051.031.010.990.970.951.151.11.0510.9521-1000100060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-1000-10001000--10%22--50%40%30%20%10%0%---90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-10%23-----40%30%20%10%0%10%0%--10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%24------0%-5%-20%15%10%5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%-45%0%-5%-10%25--50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%2627

/28?---(1-3

)(1-3)(3-5)-(3-5

)30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%20172018201920202021202220232.99%5.28%4.69%3.15%4.48%2.88%0.82%3.95%0.51%1.08%7.752.07%5.94%4.33%2.84%4.13%2.16%0.94%3.72%0.62%1.75%6.001.88%6.58%3.91%2.58%3.71%2.72%0.53%3.63%0.71%1.94%5.110.26%8.35%4.55%2.99%4.85%3.00%0.59%4.06%1.37%4.04%2.960.00%2017-1-4

2018-1-4

2019-1-4

2020-1-4

2021-1-4

2022-1-4

2023-1-3.672.131.881.00-5.00%29%%%003078.OF009457.OF004544.OF519226.OF010232.OFAAA2016/12/262020/9/73.890.620.4536.692.942.772.392.552.820.50.350.330.540.462017/6/142017/2/162021/3/150.290.480.5918.3034.8442.92,30?1:91:945.00%40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%++20172018201920202021202220237.25%4.30%9.20%8.08%5.28%-0.12%1.49%5.80%1.91%2.07%3.040.89%4.67%6.38%4.40%7.47%-0.81%1.45%4.02%1.92%2.53%2.092.32%-0.32%10.16%9.12%7.82%-5.07%1.75%4.14%4.27%6.93%0.974.15%0.22%10.97%13.21%5.61%-3.78%1.60%5.16%3.62%5.74%1.43-0.80%5.04%7.03%5.35%5.86%0.89%1.28%4.06%2.20%2.52%1.850.00%2017-1-3-5.00%2018-1-32019-1-32020-1-32021-1-32022-1-32023-1-2.811.590.60.91.6131%%%%%000107.OF485111.OFAB2019-03-132010-08-1611.3214.493.4312.3714.493.943.882.24190.50148.95,A0.002.52,,161115.SZ003637.OF360008.OF2019-01-042021-04-262019-10-090.7513.880.0017.4915.7927.717.4715.2611.623.174.124.102.231.341.9195.9248.8694.17AA32?+2:82:860.00%50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%+201720182019202020212022202310.10%0.71%14.37%14.27%7.92%-2.55%2.31%7.59%3.84%4.63%1.982.32%-0.32%10.16%9.12%7.82%-5.07%1.75%4.14%4.27%6.93%0.974.15%0.22%10.97%13.21%5.61%-3.78%1.60%5.16%3.62%5.74%1.43-0.51%0.61%9.67%7.62%6.01%-1.55%1.88%3.86%3.85%5.20%12017-1-3

2018-1-3

2019-1-3

2020-1-3

2021-1-3

2022-1-3

2023-1-1.640.60.90.74-10.00%33%%%%3.121.942.492.133.12%004738.OF009689.OF000436.OF002701.OF001247.OF