climate-change-全球變暖PP課件

climatechange全球變暖1、紀(jì)律是管理關(guān)系的形式?！⒎{西耶夫2、改革如果不講紀(jì)律，就難以成功。3、道德行為訓(xùn)練，不是通過語言影響，而是讓兒童練習(xí)良好道德行為，克服懶惰、輕率、不守紀(jì)律、頹廢等不良行為。4、學(xué)校沒有紀(jì)律便如磨房里沒有水?！涿兰~斯5、教導(dǎo)兒童服從真理、服從集體，養(yǎng)成兒童自覺的紀(jì)律性，這是兒童道德教育最重要的部分?！慂Q琴climatechange全球變暖climatechange全球變暖1、紀(jì)律是管理關(guān)系的形式?！⒎{西耶夫2、改革如果不講紀(jì)律，就難以成功。3、道德行為訓(xùn)練，不是通過語言影響，而是讓兒童練習(xí)良好道德行為，克服懶惰、輕率、不守紀(jì)律、頹廢等不良行為。4、學(xué)校沒有紀(jì)律便如磨房里沒有水?！涿兰~斯5、教導(dǎo)兒童服從真理、服從集體，養(yǎng)成兒童自覺的紀(jì)律性，這是兒童道德教育最重要的部分。——陳鶴琴ClimateChangeandSea-levelRise1ClimateChangeinthepastObservationMeasurementTemperatureChange2HumanandNaturalDriversofClimateChangeMethodTheMainRadiativeForcingMethodChangesintheatmosphericabundanceofgreenhousegasesandaerosols,insolarradiationandinlandsurfacepropertiesaltertheenergybalanceoftheclimatesystem.Thesechangesareexpressedintermsofradiativeforcing,whichisusedtocomparehowarangeofhumanandnaturalfactorsdrivewarmingorcoolinginfluencesonglobalclimate.

TheMainRadiativeForcingGlobalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehaveincreasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpre-industrialvaluesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.CarbonDioxideCarbondioxideisthemostimportantanthropogenicgreenhousegas.Theglobalatmosphericconcentrationofcarbondioxidehasincreasedfromapre-industrialvalueofabout280ppmto379ppmin2005.MethaneTheglobalatmosphericconcentrationofmethanehasincreasedfromapre-industrialvalueofabout715ppbto1732ppbintheearly1990s,andis1774ppbin2005.NitrousOxideTheglobalatmosphericnitrousoxideconcentrationincreasedfromapre-industrialvalueofabout270ppbto319ppbin2005.AnthropogeniccontributionsThecombinedradiativeforcingduetoincreasesincarbondioxide,methane,andnitrousoxideis+2.30[+2.07to+2.53]wm-2.SolarIrradianceChangesinsolarirradiancesince1750areestimatedtocausearadiativeforcingof+0.12[+0.06to+0.30]wm-2TheunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehasimprovedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethatthegloballyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming,witharadiativeforcingof+1.6[+0.6to+2.4]wm-2.3

ProjectionsofFutureChangesinClimateandSeaLevelRiseSRESFutureGreenhouseGasEmissionsFutureChangesinClimateSeaLevelRiseSRESContinuedgreenhousegasemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemanychangesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcenturythatwouldverylikelybelargerthanthoseobservedduringthe20thcentury.SRES,thatis,theIPCCSpecialReportonEmissionScenarios.Therearesixscenariogroupsthatshouldbeconsideredequallysoundthatspanawiderangeofuncertainty,asrequiredbytheTermsofConference.Theseencompassfourcombinationsofdemographicchange,socialandeconomicdevelopment,andbroadtechnologicaldevelopments,correspondingtothefourfamilies(A1,A2,B1,B2),eachwithanillustrative“marker”scenario.A1.TheA1storylineandscenariofamilydescribesafutureworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth,globalpopulationthatpeaksinmid-centuryanddeclinesthereafter,andtherapidintroductionofnewandmoreefficienttechnologies.Majorunderlyingthemesareconvergenceamongregions,capacitybuildingandincreasedculturalandsocialinteractions,withasubstantialreductioninregionaldifferencesinpercapitaincome.ThethreeA1groupsaredistinguishedbytheirtechnologicalemphasis:fossilintensive(A1FI),non-fossilenergysources(A1T),orabalanceacrossallsources(A1B)(wherebalancedisdefinedasnotrelyingtooheavilyononeparticularenergysource,ontheassumptionthatsimilarimprovementratesapplytoallenergysupplyandenduse.A2.TheA2storylineandscenariofamilydescribesaveryheterogeneousworld.Theunderlyingthemeisselfrelianceandpreservationoflocalidentities.Fertilitypatternsacrossregionsconvergeveryslowly,whichresultsincontinuouslyincreasingpopulation.Economicdevelopmentisprimarilyregionallyorientedandpercapitaeconomicgrowthandtechnologicalchangemorefragmentedandslowerthanotherstorylines.B1.TheB1storylineandscenariofamilydescribesaconvergentworldwiththesameglobalpopulation,thatpeaksinmid-centuryanddeclinesthereafter,asintheA1storyline,butwithrapidchangeineconomicstructurestowardaserviceandinformationeconomy,withreductionsinmaterialintensityandtheintroductionofcleanandresourceefficienttechnologies.Theemphasisisonglobalsolutionstoeconomic,socialandenvironmentalsustainability,includingimprovedequity,butwithoutadditionalclimateinitiatives.B2.TheB2storylineandscenariofamilydescribesaworldinwhichtheemphasisisonlocalsolutionstoeconomic,socialandenvironmentalsustainability.Itisaworldwithcontinuouslyincreasingglobalpopulation,ataratelowerthanA2,intermediatelevelsofeconomicdevelopment,andlessrapidandmorediversetechnologicalchangethanintheB1andA1storylines.Whilethescenarioisalsoorientedtowardsenvironmentalprotectionandsocialequity,itfocusesonlocalandregionallevels.FutureGreenhouseGasEmissionsTotalcumulativeSREScarbonemissionsfromallsourcesthrough2100rangefromapproximately770Gtctoapproximately2540Gtc.FutureChangesinClimateAdvancesinclimatechangemodellingnowenablebestestimatesandlikelyassesseduncertaintyrangestobegivenforprojectedwarmingfordifferentemissionscenarios.Continuedgreenhousegasemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemanychangesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcenturythatwouldverylikelybelargerthanthoseobservedduringthe20thcentury.BestestimatesandlikelyrangesforgloballyaveragesurfaceairwarmingforsixSRESemissionsmarkerscenariosareshowninTable1.Forexample,thebestestimateforthelowscenario(B1)is1.8°C(likelyrangeis1.1°Cto2.9°C),andthebestestimateforthehighscenario(A1FI)is4.0°C(likelyrangeis2.4°Cto6.4°C).SeaLevelRiseGlobalwarmingcancausetheriseinsealevel.BestestimatesandlikelyrangesfortheriseinsealevelareshowninTable1.4MangroveResponsetoProjectedRelativeSea-levelRiseTherelationshipbetweensea-levelriseandthelossesofcoastalmangrovesThreegeneralscenariosformangroveresponsetorelativesea-levelriseTherelationshipbetweensea-levelriseandthelossesofcoastalmangrovesGlobalsea-levelriseisoneofthemorecertainoutcomesofglobalwarming,itisalreadylikelytakingplace,andseveralclimatemodelsprojectacceleratedrateofsea-levelriseovercomingdecades.Relativesea-levelriseisamajorfactorcontributingtorecentlossesandprojectedfuturereductionsintheareaofvaluedcoastalhabitats,includingmangrovesandothertidalwetlands,withconcomitantincreasedthreattohumansafetyandshorelinedevelopmentfromcoastalhazards.Threegeneralscenariosformangroveresponsetorelativesea-levelriseHereitcanbeinferredthattheforceofsea-levelriserelativetothemangrovesurfaceiscausinglandwardmigration.Therearethreegeneralscenariosformangroveresponsetorelativesea-levelrise,givenalandscape-levelscaleandtimeperiodofdecadesorlonger.Nochangeinrelativesea-levelWhensea-levelisnotchangingrelativetothemangrovesurface,mangroveelevation;salinity;frequency,period,anddepthofinundation;andotherfactorsthatdetermineifamangrovecommunitycanpersistatalocationwillremainrelativelyconstantandthemangrovemarginswillremaininthesamelocation.Relativesea-levelloweringWhensea-levelisdroppingrelativetothemangrovesurface,thisforcesthemangrovemarginstomigrateseaward.Themangrovemayalsoexpandlaterally,displacingothercoastalhabitats,ifareasadjacenttothemangrove,whicharecurrentlyatalowerelevationthanthemangrovesurface,develophydrologicconditionssuitableformangroveestablishment.Relativesea-levelrisingIfsea-levelisrisingrelativetothemangrovesurface,themangrove’sseawardandlandwardmarginsretreatlandward,themangrovespecieszonesmigrateinlandastheymaintaintheirpreferredperiod,frequencyanddepthofinundation.Themangrovemayalsoexpandlaterallyifareasadjacenttot