2022年上半年全球貿(mào)易額實(shí)現(xiàn)顯著增長（英）

GLBAL

150

Peliminary

Values

130

110

Volumes

90

70

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

20182019202020212022

update

July2022

Inflationandrisingcommoditypricesdriveglobaltrade

Globaltradegrowth

Thevalueofglobaltradeisfueledbyrisingcommodityprices;tradevolumeshaveincreasedtoamuchlowerextent.

Tighteningpoliciesandgeopoliticalfrictionsareexpectedtonegativelyaffectglobaltradeduring

2022.

deceleratedinQ12022,stillincreasingbyaboutUS$1trillionrelativetothesameperiodof2021.

Theconflictin

Ukraineisstarting

toinfluence

internationaltrade,

largelythrough

increasesinprices.

Risingpricesinflateinternationaltrade

Merchandisetradeinvaluesandvolumes(Index2019=100)

Nowcast

Index2019=100

Source:UNCTADStat.

@UNCTAD@UNCTADtrade

US$trillion

Preliminary

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2018

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2020

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2021

Q1Q2

2022

2

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

Globaltradetrendsandnowcast

ThevalueofglobaltradeincreasedduringQ12022,althoughitsgrowthcontinuedtodecelerate.Overall,thevalueofglobaltradereachedarecordlevelofaboutUS$7.7trillioninQ12022,anincreaseofaboutUS$1trillionrelativetoQ12021,andofaboutUS$250millionrelativetoQ42021.

Tradeingoods(merchandise)andtradeinservicesbothgrewduringQ12022.TradeingoodsreachedaboutUS$6.1trillion(anincreaseofabout25percentrelativetoQ12021,andanincreaseofabout3.6percentrelativetoQ42021).TradeinservicestotaledaboutUS$1.6trillion(anincreaseofabout22percentrelativetoQ12021,andanincreaseofabout1.7percentrelativetoQ42021).TradegrowthisexpectedtoremainpositivebutcontinuestoslowduringQ22022.

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

Nowcast

Services

QuarterlyGrowth

AnnualGrowth

WorldTrade(rightaxis)

Goods

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnationalstatistics.

Note:Quarterlygrowthisthequarteroverquartergrowthrateofseasonallyadjustedvalues.Annualgrowthreferstothelastfourquarters.FiguresforQ42021arepreliminary.Q12022isa

nowcast

.Mostofthemerchandisetradegrowthduringthelastyearwasnominal.InQ12022thevalueoftradewasabout30percenthigherthanthepre-pandemiclevelsof2019.Bycontrast,tradevolumesincreasedtoamuchlowerextent(about6percent).Thedivergencebetweenvaluesandvolumesisduetorisingcommodityprices,especiallyforenergyproducts,andgeneralinflation.

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE3

Globaltradeoutlook

Thepositivetrendforinternationaltrademaysooncometoanend.Risinginterestratesandthewindingdownofeconomicstimuluspackageswilllikelyhaveanegativeimpactontradevolumesfortherestof2022.Volatilityincommoditypricesandgeopoliticalfactorswillalsocontinuetomaketradedevelopmentsuncertain.Overall,theevolutionofworldtradefortheremainderof2022islikelytobeaffectedbythefollowingfactors:

oSIowaJ?UenaxdaO?apaOonom!O6Jow?U

Economicgrowthforecastsfor2022arebeingreviseddownwardsduetorisinginterestrates,inflationarypressuresinmanyeconomies,andnegativeglobaleconomicspilloversfromtheconflictinUkraine.Itislikelythatglobaltradewillreflectthesemacroeconomictrends,withadecreaseintradegrowth.

o3}}aO?o}?UaOon!!O?!nUHJe!na

TheconflictinUkraineisputtingfurtherupwardpressureontheinternationalpricesofenergyandprimarycommodities.Intheshortterm,becauseoftheinelasticglobaldemandforfoodandenergyproducts,risingfoodandenergypriceswouldlikelyresultinhighertradevalues,andmarginallylowertradevolumes.

oOon?!nu!n6OUeIIan6as}oJ6IoqeIsuddI(OUe!ns

Risksanduncertaintiesremainhighforglobalsupplychainoperations.COVID-19mitigationmeasuresmaycontinuetocreatesupplydisruptionsandglobaleconomicuncertaintiesarelikelytomakeinvestmentsriskierduring2022.Moreover,long-termtrendstoshortensupplychainsandtodiversifysuppliersmaystarttoinfluenceinternationaltradein2022.

oTJepae6Jaaman?senpJa6!oneI!ze?!on?Janps

Tradeagreementsthathaverecentlyenteredintoforce(e.g.theRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipandtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea)shouldprovideadditionalmomentumforintra-regionaltrade.Ontheotherhand,inter-regionaltradewilllikelycontinuetobenegativelyaffectedbyrisingtransportcosts,logisticdisruptions,andgeopoliticalfrictions.

oTJens!?!on?oweJpse6JaanaJ6IoqeIaOonom(

Tradepatternsareexpectedtoreflecttheincreasingglobaldemandforproductsthatareenvironmentallysustainable.Whiletheconsequencesareexpectedtoinfluencetradeinthemediumandlongterms,somemayalreadymaterializeduring2022.Thiswouldlargelydependontheimplementationofgovernmentpoliciesregulatingthetradeofcarbonintensiveproducts.Persistentlyhighenergypricesmayalsoresultinageneralincreaseinthedemandandtradeofproductsrequiredtosupportgreenerenergyalternatives.

oR!s!n6OonOaJns}oJpaq?sus?e!neq!I!?(

Giventherecordlevelsofglobaldebt,concernsofdebtsustainabilityarelikelytointensifyinthecomingquartersduetomountinginflationarypressuresandassociatedinterestratehikes.Theongoingtighteningoffinancialconditionsisexpectedtoheightenpressureonthemosthighlyindebtedgovernments,amplifyingvulnerabilitiesandnegativelyaffectinginvestmentsandinternationaltradeflows.

4

GOODS

IMPORTS

EXPORTS

SERVICES

IMPORTS

EXPORTS

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

Tradetrendsinthemajoreconomies

Theimportandexporttrendsofsomeoftheworld’smajortradingeconomiesfurtherillustratethepatternsoftradegrowthduringQ12022.Overall,tradeingoodsinallmajoreconomieswaswellabovethepre-pandemiclevelsof2019,forbothimportsandexports.Negativequarter-over-quarterratesrevealthatimporttrendsreversedforBrazilandtheRussianFederationduringQ12022.ExportgrowthinthisperiodremainedstrongforBrazilandSouthAfrica.

Dataonservicesisreportedwithalagofonequarter.InQ42021,tradeinservicesofmostmajoreconomieswasstillsubstantiallylowerthanthepre-pandemicaveragesof2019.However,asshownbyquarter-over-quarterrates,tradeinservicesofmostmajoreconomiescontinuedtorecoverduringQ42021,withtheexceptionofBrazil,JapanandtheimportstotheEuropeanUnion.

Importsandexportsofmajortradingeconomies

Q12022RELATIVETO2019AVERAGEQ12022RELATIVETOQ42021

IMPORTSEXPORTS

Brazil30%43%

3%15%

China35%49%

2%

4%

India37%34%

4%

7%

Japan20%

8%

6%

2%

RepublicofKorea39%29%

4%

3%

RussianFederation15%*38%*6%*5%*

SouthAfrica19%46%

8%10%

UnitedStates30%17%

8%

4%

EuropeanUnion37%12%

7%

2%

Q42021RELATIVETO2019AVERAGEQ42021RELATIVETOQ32021

IMPORTSEXPORTS

Brazil27%

0%

2%

1%

China

8%58%3%9%

India16%21%

4%

4%

Japan

5%19%

0%

2%

RepublicofKorea

0%26%3%1%

RussianFederation15%0%7%9%

SouthAfrica15%

0%

1%

0%

UnitedStates

1%8%2%3%

EuropeanUnion

3%10%2%2%

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnationalstatistics.

Note:Growthratesarerelativetoyearaveragesfor2019andofpreviousquarter.Dataisseasonallyadjusted.StatisticsfortheEUexcludeintra-EUtrade.*denotesestimates.

5

vs201930%67%

vs2021

IMP.20%EXP.81\

vs2021vs2019IMP.21%32%

EXP.19%21%

vs2021vs2019IMP.20%26%EXP.13%21%

vs2021vs2019

32%

14%

15%

IMP.

EXP.

33%34%

IMP.24%

EXP.39%

vs2021

vs2019

38%

vs2021vs2019IMP.23%32%

EXP.30%32%

vs2021vs2019

IMP.25%34%

EXP.29%34%

IMP.18%EXP.9%

34%

36%

vs2021vs2019

Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialonanymapinthisworkdonotimplytheexpressionof

anyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,

cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

RegionaltradetrendsinQ12022

InQ12022,tradeingoodswassignificantlyabovethelevelsof2021bothindevelopinganddevelopedcountries.Merchandiseexportsfromdevelopingcountrieswereabout25percenthigherinQ12022thaninQ12021.Incomparison,thisfigureisabout14percentfordevelopedcountries.Tradebetweendevelopingcountries(South-South)wasabout23percenthigherinQ12022thaninthesamequarterof2021,andabout42higherthanpre-pandemiclevels.South-SouthtradeoutsideEastAsiagrewstrongerduringthelastyearandhasnowrecoveredtosimilarlevelsofthetradeofEastAsianeconomies.

Tradegrowthremainsstrongforbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries

Q12022relativetoQ12021andQ12019

Q12022vsQ12021Q12022vsQ12019

IMPORTEXPORTIMPORTEXPORT

Developedcountries

20%

14%

27%

20%

Developingcountries

17%

25%

33%

41%

South-SouthTrade

23%

42%

Developingcountries(excludingEastAsia)23%

40%

32%39%

South-Southtrade(excludingEastAsia)

44%

44%

Source:UNCTADestimatesbasedonnationalstatistics.

Note:Changesareyear-overyear.Dataexcludesintra-EUtrade.Datadoesnotincludetradeinservices.

TradegrowthratesinQ12022remainedstrongacrossallgeographicregions,althoughsomewhatlowerintheEastAsiaandPacificregions.Exportgrowthhasbeengenerallystrongerincommodity-exportingregions,ascommoditypriceshaveincreased.TradeperformanceandvolatilityindicesatthecountrylevelforQ12022areprovidedinAnnex1.

Tradecontinuestoincreaseinallregions,butlesssointheEastAsiaandPacificregions

Q12022relativetoQ12021andQ12019

Source:UNCTADestimatesbasedonnationalstatistics.

Note:Changesareyear-overyear.Dataexcludesintra-EUtrade.Datadoesnotincludetradeinservices.

6

36%

10%

18%

10%

39%

20%

59%

35%

12%

55%

26%

38%

3%

27%

5%

30%

7%

38%

6%

6%

14%

0%

28%

9%

CommunicationEquipment

Energy

Machinery

Metals

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

GlobaltradetrendsatthesectorallevelinQ12022

Mosteconomicsectorsrecordedasubstantialyear-over-yearincreaseinthevalueoftheirtradeinQ12022.Highfuelpricesarebehindthestrongincreaseinthevalueoftradeintheenergysector.Tradegrowthwasalsoaboveaverageformetalsandchemicals.Bycontrast,tradeinthetransportationsectorcontinuestobeweigheddownbymutedairplanesorders.Tradeofcommunicationequipmenthasalsoremainedbelowitslevelsof2021and2019.Finally,theglobalshortageofsemiconductorsandlogisticdisruptionscontinuetonegativelyimpactonthetradeofroadvehiclesandprecisioninstruments.

Energy,metalsandchemicalssectorsdrovetradegrowthinQ12022

Agri-food

Apparel

changesrelativetoQ12019

changesrelativetoQ12021

Chemicals

-20%

-4%

68%

Minerals

Ofice

Equipment

Other

Manufacturing

Pharmaceuticals

Precision

-7%

Instruments

RoadVehicles

Textiles

-50%

-29%

Transport

Equipment

Source:UNCTADestimatesbasedonnationalstatistics.Note:Percentagechangesinworldtradeareyear-over-year.ChangesareestimatedfromHS6digitsdataofChina,EuropeanUnion,andUnitedStates.Dataexcludesintra-EUtrade.

7

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

TradeoftheRussianFederationandUkrainewiththethreemajorglobaleconomies

Year-over-YearpercentagechangeinthevalueofmerchandisetradeduringMarchandApril2022

75

ChinaUnitedStatesofAmericaEuropeanUnion

38

Ukraineexportsto

Ukraineimportsfrom

RussianFederationimportsfrom

-4

-10-10

-18

RussianFederationexportsto

-27

-31

-48

-59

-83

-90

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonthenationalstatisticsofChina,theUnitedStates,andtheEuropeanUnion.

8

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

Annex1:ExportperformanceandvolatilityinQ12022

COUNTRIES

EXPORT

EXPORT

COUNTRIES

EXPORT

EXPORT

PERFORMANCE

VOLATILITY

PERFORMANCE

VOLATILITY

Albania

0.75

0.04

Lesotho

0.53

1.30

Algeria

0.68

1.06

Madagascar

0.86

0.36

Angola

0.89

0.19

Malawi

0.84

1.29

Argentina

0.51

0.24

Malaysia

0.65

0.02

Armenia

0.54

0.30

Mali

0.35

0.37

Australia

0.53

0.05

Mauritius

0.40

0.09

Azerbaijan

0.93

0.12

Mexico

0.63

0.23

Bahrain

0.83

0.96

Morocco

0.71

0.48

Bangladesh

0.75

0.08

Mozambique

0.82

1.03

Belarus

0.59

0.28

Myanmar

0.58

0.11

Benin

0.46

0.40

Namibia

0.44

1.06

Bolivia(PlurinationalStateof)

0.65

0.28

Nepal

0.35

0.94

BosniaandHerzegovina

0.58

0.09

NewZealand

0.52

0.05

Brazil

0.56

0.34

Nicaragua

0.63

0.44

Cambodia

0.74

0.09

Nigeria

0.49

0.31

Cameroon

0.57

0.77

Norway

0.84

0.14

Canada

0.60

0.02

Oman

1.00

0.31

Chile

0.53

0.11

Pakistan

0.75

0.08

China

0.54

0.17

Panama

0.41

1.60

Colombia

0.83

0.05

PapuaNewGuinea

0.74

0.33

CostaRica

0.71

0.16

Paraguay

0.56

1.28

C?ted'Ivoire

0.45

0.13

Peru

0.64

0.28

DominicanRepublic

0.56

0.32

Philippines

0.51

0.06

EU-27

0.56

0.01

Qatar

0.80

0.13

Ecuador

0.69

0.25

RepublicofKorea

0.64

0.01

Egypt

0.70

0.53

RepublicofMoldova

0.79

0.01

ElSalvador

0.55

0.03

RussianFederation

0.84

0.16

Ethiopia

0.68

0.26

SaudiArabia

0.77

0.05

Gabon

0.60

0.87

Senegal

0.72

0.41

Georgia

0.57

0.30

Serbia

0.65

0.01

Ghana

0.66

1.33

Singapore

0.64

0.02

Guatemala

0.60

0.04

SouthAfrica

0.47

0.21

Guyana

0.43

0.91

SriLanka

0.57

0.08

Haiti

0.42

0.23

Switzerland

0.60

0.12

Honduras

0.48

0.29

Taiwan,ProvinceofChina

0.65

0.03

HongKong(China)

0.47

0.16

Thailand

0.59

0.02

Iceland

0.59

0.14

Togo

0.85

1.79

India

0.61

0.13

Tunisia

0.67

0.16

Indonesia

0.69

0.19

Türkiye

0.57

0.05

Iran(IslamicRepublicof)

0.68

0.29

Uganda

0.38

0.76

Israel

0.57

0.08

Ukraine

0.73

1.04

Jamaica

0.00

0.13

UnitedArabEmirates

0.62

0.24

Japan

0.50

0.01

UnitedKingdom

0.54

0.20

Jordan

0.72

0.49

UnitedRepublicofTanzania

0.98

0.37

Kazakhstan

0.93

0.41

UnitedStatesofAmerica

0.61

0.01

Kenya

0.48

0.07

Uruguay

0.40

0.49

Kuwait

0.86

0.12

Venezuela(BolivarianRep.of)

0.80

0.41

LaoPeople'sDem.Rep.

0.72

0.50

VietNam

0.63

0.10

Lebanon

0.89

0.44

Zambia

0.65

1.82

Source:UNCTADestimatesbasedonnationalstatistics.

Note:Exportperformanceisacompositeindicatorwhichincludesgrowthrates,performancevspeers,andcompetitivenessinmajoranddynamicmarkets.Agreaterscoreimplieshigherexportperformance.Exportvolatilitytracksexportperformanceacrossthelast6monthstoidentifyvolatilitypatterns.Agreaterscoreimplieshigherexportvulnerability.Dataexcludesintra-EUtrade.

9

54

49%

OilcrudeOilrefinedNaturalgas

Coal

24

77%

22

259%

6

130%

GLOBALTRADEUPDATE

Annex2a:RussianFederationexportstothethreemajorglobaleconomies,March-April2021vsMarch-April2022

ChinaimportsfromtheRussianFederation

Year-over-yearchangesinvaluesandquantitiesMarch-April2021vsMarchandApril2022,selectedHS4-digitsproducts

Valueofimportsin2021

US$Billion

Changein

percentage

quantity

Changeinvalue

Product

percentage

Crudeoil

Coal

Petroleumgases

Copperrefined

41

7

4

4

45%

51%

94%

?45%

?6%

?22%

?58%

?52%

UnitedStatesimportsfromtheRussianFederation

Year-over-yearchangesinvaluesandquantitiesMarch-April2021vsMarchandApril2022,selectedHS4-digitsproducts

Product

Valueofimportsin2021

US$Billion

Changeinvalue

percentage

Changein

percentage

quantity

Oilrefined

Oilcrud