（英文）行業(yè)資料 JPMorgan-EMEA Metals Mining China NPC first take – 2023 GDP growth target‘around 5%’vs JPM Economists5.6% 2023E

EuropeEquityResearch

6March2023

EMEAMetals&Mining

ChinaNPCfirsttake–2023GDPgrowthtarget‘a(chǎn)round

5%’vsJPMEconomists’5.6%2023E

J.P.MorganChinaEconomistshavepublishedtheirtakeonChina’sGovernmentWorkReport,releasedyesterday(link)atthestartoftheNPCmeeting.Ourcolleaguesnotefewsurprisesinthe2023numerictargets,withGDPgrowthtargetedat“around5%”vsJPMChinaEconomists’expectationsof+5.6%forecastfor2023.Ourcolleaguesstatetheydonotexpectextramacropolicystimulusin2023.However,theynotethattheannualgrowthtargetisnolongerabindingconstraint,noranofficialforecastofeconomicgrowth.HavingbeensetinDec’22(ie:inamorechallengingenvironment),ourcolleaguesthink“around5%”couldbeinterpretedasaminimum,withscopetosurpriseasChinareopens.Separately,ourChinaPropertycolleagueshavepublishedtheirtakeonthelatestTwoSessionsGovernmentWorkReportnotingthat“riskmanagementremainsthecorepolicyobjective”(link).Ourcolleaguescontinuetoexpectlocal,demand-sideeasing,butdonotviewthisreportassignallingamovetoaggressivenation-wideeasing,noraretherenewpolicyinitiativesorstimulithatareobviously

targetedatboostingnewconstructionstarts(Propertyis~30%ofChinasteeldemand).

InthecontextofEuropeanMiningequities,ourtoppicksfor2023areGlencoreandAngloAmerican(OWboth).WeareUnderweightRioTinto,onexpectationthatRIO’searningsmomentumwillpeakinQ1withpeak2023ironorepricesandwecontinuetoadvocateusingQ1strengthiniron-oretoconsiderreducingexposurebeforeChinare-openingthemesbecomeoverextended.WeattachalinktoourEMEAMetals,MiningandSteelvaluationsundervariouscommoditypricingscenarioslink.

WeincludeexcerptsfromourChinaEconomistscolleagues’notebelow.

EuropeanMetals,Mining&Steel

DominicO'KaneAC

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dominic.j.okane@

BloombergJPMAOKANE<GO>

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

PatrickJones

(44-20)7742-5964

patrick.jones@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

DhruviKSoni

(91-22)6126-2437

dhruvi.k.soni@

J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited

CatherineCunningham

(27-11)507-0357

catherine.cunningham@

J.P.MorganEquitiesSouthAfrica(Pty)Ltd.

MosesOla

(44-20)3493-0548

moses.ola@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

China:Lackofsurprisein2023numerictargets–2023

growthtarget‘a(chǎn)round5%’

?TheGovernmentWorkReportwasreleasedtoday,withlittlesurprisein2023numericaltargets.Thegrowthtargetis“around5%”.Onthefiscalfront,fiscaldeficittargetissetat3.0%ofGDP(3.88trillionyuan),andthequotaforspeciallocalgovernmentbondis3.8trillionyuan.Onthemonetarypolicyfront,inflationtargetremainsunchangedat“around3%”,andM2andTSFgrowthwillbeinlinewithnominalGDPgrowth.

?Othernumericaltargetsinclude:newurbanemploymentat12million;survey-basedunemploymentrate“around5.5%”;CPI“around3%”;foodproduction

650billionkg;energyconsumptionperunitofGDPwilldeclineby2%.

?Whatremainstobewatchedout:appointmentofStateCouncilnewteam(March11-12);pressconferencebythenewpremier(March13)

ThedepartingpremierLIKeqiangdeliveredthegovernmentworkreporttothe

NPCtoday.Majornumericaltargetsforthisyeararemostlyinlinewithour

Seepage10foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

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expectations:

?Annualgrowthtargetissetat“around5%”(vs.ourforecastof“above5%”);

?Fiscaldeficittargetis3%ofGDP(3.88trillionyuan),inlinewithourexpectations;

?Thequotaforspeciallocalgovernmentbondis3.8trillionyuan(vs.ourforecastof3.9trillionyuan);

?CPIinflationtargetis“around3%”,unchangedfromthepreviousyearandinlinewithourexpectation;

?M2andTSFgrowthwillbeinlinewithnominalGDPgrowth;

?Employmenttargets:newurbanemploymentis12million(vs.11millionlastyear),andsurvey-basedunemploymentrateis“around5.5%”(unchanged,inlinewithourexpectation)

?EnergyconsumptionperunitofGDPwilldeclineby2%ormore

TheNPCmeetingthisyearisshorter(by3dayscomparedtothe2013NPC).Whatremains

tobewatchedoutinclude:theappointmentofnewpremieronMarch11(LIQiangwillbe

thenewpremierwithnosurprise)andthenewteamoftheStateCouncilonMarch12;the

pressconferencebythenewpremieronMarch13.Itisalsoworthwatchingwhetherthere

willbemajorinstitutionalreforms,ashavebeendecidedinthe2ndPlenarySessionofthe

PartyCongress(Feb26-28).

Is“around5%”aconservativegrowthtarget?

Atfirstsight,“around5%”seemsarelativelyconservativegrowthtargetforthisyear.With

China’sreopeningtakingplacemuchearlierandfasterthaninitiallyexpected,theChinese

economyhasquicklypassedthetransitionpainandenteredpost-reopeningrecovery.Since

thegovernmenthasemphasizedgrowthasaprioritypolicyobjectivethisyear,thequestion

iswhether“around5%”istooconservative?

Theshortanswerisno.

First,theannualgrowthtargetispre-determinedwellbeforetheNPCmeeting,usuallyatthe

CentralEconomicWorkConferenceinDecember.TheevolvementbetweenDecemberand

Marchusuallywillnotaffectthegrowthtarget(withperhapstheonlyexceptionthatno

growthtargetwasannouncedin2020aftertheCOVIDoutbreak).BackinDecember,

“around5%”wasclearlynotaconservativegrowthtargetanditshowstheemphasison

growthstabilizationandgrowthquality.

Second,theannualgrowthtargetisnolongerabindingconstraint.Anditisnotanofficial

forecastofeconomicgrowth.In2021,theannualgrowthtargetwassetat“above6%”to

maintaincontinuityinannualgrowthtarget,butthefinaloutcomeis8.4%.Hence,the

narrativecouldhavechangedbetweenDecemberandnowregardingthegrowthtargetof

“around5%”.WhileitwasperceivedasachallengingtargetinDecember,itcouldbe

interpretedasaminimumatthismomentreflectingthepositivesurpriseinthereopening

process(ourgrowthforecastthisyearis5.6%).

Lastly,2023isdifferentfrom2021.Theexternalenvironmentismorechallenging,with

globaleconomicgrowthexpectedtoslowdownto2.3%basedonJ.P.Morgan’sforecast(vs.

5.9%in2021).China’sexportsrose30%andnetexportscontributed1.7%ptstoGDPgrowth

in2021.Bycontrast,weexpectChina’sexportswillregistermid-single-digitdeclineandnet

exportswilldragGDPgrowthby0.5%ptthisyear.Onthedomesticfront,thebalancesheets

forcorporatesandhouseholdshavebeendraggedbythreeyearsofeconomicturbulence,and

maynotreboundasstronglyasin2020-21.Thedifferencesinquarterlygrowthprofilesalso

suggestthatitismucheasiertoregisterstrongergrowthin2021,as4Q20isthepeakquarter

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6March2023

in2020(threequartersofsequentialreboundin2Q-4Q2020afteralargecontractionin

1Q20)butitisnotthesamecasein2022.

Detailsoffiscalpolicy

Thefiscalbudgetreportelaboratesonthedetailsofthefiscalpolicy,whichisgenerallyinline

withourexpectation.Wemaintainourinterpretationthatfiscalpolicyismodestly

contractionary(comparedtolastyear).

Withinthefiscalbudget,headlinefiscaldeficittargetisincreasedto3.88trillionyuan(vs.

3.37trillionyuanin2022),or3.0%ofGDP(vs.2.8%in2022).TheimpliednominalGDP

growthis6.9%y/y.Fiscalrevenueisforecastedtogrow6.7%oya,pointingtoastablefiscal

burdenthisyear.Inaddition,thequotaforspeciallocalgovernmentbondissetat3.8trillion

yuan(vs.3.65trillionyuaninMarch2022fiscalbudget).

Inreality,theMarch2022fiscalbudgetwasnottherightfigurestoassess2022fiscalpolicy.

Asmentionedinthefiscalreport,additionalfiscalsupportforinfra-projectsin2022came

fromanadditional5.03billionyuanspeciallocalgovernmentbond(addedinAugust2022)

and740billionyuanspecialfinancialbondbypolicybanks(usedasequitycapitalformajor

infra-projects).TakingintoaccountcarryoverofunusedspecialLGBproceedsfrom2021,

off-budgetaryitems(modestincreaseinLGFVbondandsignificantdeclineinlandsales),

ourestimateofaugmentedfiscaldeficitin2022was12.7%ofGDP,orhigherthan2021by

2.3%ofGDP.

Usingthesameapproach,ourestimateofaugmentedfiscaldeficitin2023willbe11.5%of

GDP,orlowerthan2022by1.2%ofGDP.Thisisbasedonthefollowingassumptions:(i)

noadditionalquotaforspeciallocalgovernmentbond;(ii)anadditional750bnyuanspecial

financialbondfrompolicybankstosupportinfra-projects;(iii)LGFVdebtwillincreaseby

10%;and(iv)landsalerevenuegrowthwillbeflatthisyear.

Thecompositionalshiftinfiscalspendingismoreinterestingtowatchthisyear.Compared

to2022,itisclearthatthefiscalexpenditurewillbesignificantlylowerintwoareas:(i)

COVID-relatedexpenses(weestimatearound1trillionfromheadlinefiscalexpenditure);

and(ii)taxandfeereduction/refund/deferral,whichtotaledover4.2trillionyuanin2022

(including2.4trillionyuanVATrefund,1trilliontaxandfeereductionand750billionyuan

taxdeferral).Howthegovernmentwillusethesefiscalresourcestosupporteconomicgrowth

(e.g.supportingR&D,industryupgrade,greendevelopmentsorruralvitalization,or

supportingconsumptionstimulusmeasures)isakeyfocusofthisyear’sfiscalpolicy.

Monetarypolicy:TakeawaysfromPBOC’spressconference

Thegovernmentworkreportonlyrepeated“prudentmonetarypolicyshouldbetargetedand

forceful.M2andTSFgrowthshouldbasicallymatchnominalGDPgrowthtosupport

economicgrowth”.Meanwhile,thepressconferencehostedbyPBOCseniorofficialson

March3(GovernorYiGanganddeputygovernorsPanGongshengandLiuGuoqiang)

providedsomeinterestinginsightsonmonetarypolicyoperationsthisyear.

First,thePBOC’sconcernsaboutrisinginflationhavebeentoneddown.InAugust2022,the

PBOCwarnedoftherisinginflationrisk(“PBOCMonetaryPolicyOperationReport

2Q22”),forecastingthatCPIwilltrendupin2H22andmaybreakover3%oyaincertain

months.Inreality,averageCPImovedupfrom1.7%in1H22to2.3%in2H22butonly

peakedat2.8%oyainSeptember.AttheMarchpressconference,thePBOCassessedthat

inflationwillstaymodestandinflationpressurewillbeundercontrolin2023.

Second,thePBOCseemstosignalanendofcurrentratecutcycle.Boththegovernmentwork

reportandthePBOCpressconferencementionedthatnewcorporateloaninterestratehas

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6March2023

fallentoarecordlow(4.17%in2022).GovernorYisaidthatcurrentmonetarypolicystance

(policyratelevelandTSFgrowthinourinterpretation)isappropriate,andrealinterestrate

levelisappropriate.Wehaveassumeda10bpreductioninpolicyratesinApril.Itappearsthat

thebiasisthatthePBOCmaykeeppolicyratesunchangedthroughout2023,andinsteadmay

lowermarketinterestratesmodestly(by5-10bps)viafurtherreformindepositandlending

ratemechanism.

Third,thePBOCiscomfortableabouttheflexibleexchangeratemovementsasobservedin

2022.ThePBOChaschosenmonetarypolicyindependenceandflexibleexchangerateover

capitalaccountliberalization,andwethinkitwillcontinuetodosoin2023.

Lastly,preventingfinancialrisksremainsanimportanttaskforthePBOCandregulators.The

governmentworkreportemphasizedstrengtheningfinancialregulationandpreventingrisks

forgood-qualitypropertydevelopersandlocalgovernmentdebt.Inourinterpretation,

fundingsupportforgood-qualitypropertydeveloperswillcontinue,anddemand-sideeasing

measureswillfollowinthehousingmarkettopreventfurtherhousingmarketcorrections.For

localgovernmentdebt,measureswillbetakentolowertheinterestrepaymentburdenofdebt

outstandingandlimitthepaceofnewdebtincrease.

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6March2023

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(44-20)7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@

EuropeEquityResearch

6March2023

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(44-20)7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@

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6March2023

WeincludeexcerptsfromourChinaEconomistscolleagues’notebelow:

ChinaProperty:NosurprisefromtheTwoSessions

InthelatestgovernmentworkreportpublishedattheTwoSessions,thepolicynarrativeon

realestateissimilartotheonefromCEWCinDecember2022(more).Riskmanagement

remainsthecorepolicyobjective,andthuswebelievemoreliquiditysupportshouldbegiven

toafewnon-distressedprivatedevelopers.Although“homesarenotforspeculation”isnot

mentionedinthe“worksuggestions”section(itismentionedinthe“review”section),wedo

notthinkthissignalsachangeinpolicydirection.Moreover,as“supportingfirst-homeand

upgradedemand”isreiterated,webelievemoredemand-sideeasingmaycomethrough

graduallyatthelocallevel.Whilewedonotexpectanyaggressivenationwideeasingonthe

policyfront,wethinkmoreproofofsustainablesalesimprovementisstillpositiveforthe

sectoroverthenext3-6months.WegenerallypreferSOEs.Basedonthelatestvaluations,

welikeCOLI>CRLandamongdevelopers;PolyPS>COPH>CRMixcamongproperty

managers.Forhigh-risk-high-returnplays,wesuggestaccumulatingCGSpostresults

(more).

?ThenarrativeislargelysimilartoCEWCinDec2022:Inboth,thementionsonrealestatearegroupedunderthesectionwhichdiscussesmitigatingfinancialrisks.Wecanthusinterpretthatthegovernment’spriorityonthepropertysectorismorefromariskmanagementperspective.“Ensuringhomedelivery”hasbeendownplayed,while“supportingfirst-home&upgradedemand”wasstillreiterated,implyingmoredemand-sideeasingmaycomethroughatthelocallevel.Thesupportforaffordable/rentalhousingisalsomentionedbutthisisnothingnew.

?Noneedtooverinterpretthelackof“homesarenotforspeculation”inworksuggestions:Intheworkreport,thementionon“homesarenotforspeculation”islistedinthereviewsection,butnotinthe“worksuggestions”section,whicharguablyismoreforwardlooking.However,wedonotthinkthissignalsachangeinthepolicydirection,aswebelievethiswilllikelyremainalong-termpolicypillarforthesector.

?Onesmallnewnarrativeis“preventinguncontrolledexpansion”:Whendiscussingimprovingbalancesheets,thegovernmentreportalsoadds“preventinguncontrolledexpansion”.Webelievethisservesasanadditionalreminderthatthegovernmentisnotlookingforanyaggressivescaleexpansioninrealestate,andthisisinlinewithourexpectationthattheChineseauthoritiesarenotgoingtostronglystimulatepropertysalesperse;rather,thesupportforhomedemandismorefromtheperspectiveofsupportingthedownsidetolowersystemicrisk.

?Nomentiononachangeinthepre-salesystem:Recently,asmorecitiesproposedaddingtrialson“salesonlyuponcompletion”,someinvestorsworriedwhetherthiswouldbeanationwidepolicy.Thisisnotmentionedintheworkreport,soourtakeisthatthetrialswilllikelybeinitiatedatthelocallevel,moreforlocalgovernmentstoshowthegesturethattheyarekeentoensurehomedelivery.Weexpectmorecitiestorollouttrials,butthescalewillunlikelybesignificantanytimesoonastheappetiteinthelandmarketremainslackluster.Thiswillratherbealong-termandgradualtransformation.Inthenearterm,onlyafewhighlysought-afterlandsmaytestrunthesystemof“salesonlyuponcompletion”,inourview.

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Figure1:Housingtransactionsbysqmin30majorcities

Source:Wind,J.P.Morgan

Figure2:Housingpolicy&housingmarketactivity

Source:NBS,J.P.Morgan

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Figure3:SummaryofpolicynarrativeonrealestateatTwoSessions

Source:Governmentwebsites,J.P.Morgan

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CompaniesDiscussedinThisReport(allpricesinthisreportasofmarketcloseon03March2023)AngloAmerican(AAL.L/3,043p/OW),GlencorePLC(GLEN.L/523p/OW),RioTintoplc(RIO.L/6,144p/UW)

AnalystCertification:TheResearchAnalyst(s)denotedbyan“AC”onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleResearchAnalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theResearchAnalystdenotedbyan“AC”onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst’spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyoftheResearchAnalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbytheResearchAnalyst(s)inthisreport.ForallKorea-basedResearchAnalystslistedonthefrontcover,ifapplicable,theyalsocertify,asperKOFIArequirements,thattheResearchAnalyst’sanalysiswasmadeingoodfaithandthattheviewsreflecttheResearchAnalyst’sownopinion,withoutundueinfluenceorintervention.

AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.

ImportantDisclosures

MarketMaker/LiquidityProvider:J.P.Morganisamarketmakerand/orliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsof/relatedtoGlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc.

Director:AnemployeeofJ.P.MorganoranexecutiveofficerordirectorofJ.P.MorganChase&Co.isanofficer,directororadvisoryboardmemberofRioTintoplc.

AnalystPosition:AnanalystontheEquityorCreditcoverageteam,non-fundamentalanalystwhomayproducetraderecommendations,oramemberoftheirrespectivehousehold(s)hasafinancialinterestinthedebtorequitysecuritiesofGlencorePLC.

BeneficialOwnership(1%ormore):J.P.Morganbeneficiallyowns1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofGlencorePLC.Client:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients:GlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc.

Client/Non-InvestmentBanking,Securities-Related:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-investment-banking,securities-related:GlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc.

Client/Non-Securities-Related:J.P.Morgancurrentlyhas,orhadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingentity(ies)asclients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-securities-related:GlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc.

PotentialInvestmentBankingCompensation:J.P.Morganexpectstoreceive,orintendstoseek,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesinthenextthreemonthsfromGlencorePLC,RioTintoplc.

Non-InvestmentBankingCompensationReceived:J.P.Morganhasreceivedcompensationinthepast12monthsforproductsorservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingfromGlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc.

Broker:J.P.MorganactsasCorporateBrokertoRioTintoplc.

DebtPosition:J.P.MorganmayholdapositioninthedebtsecuritiesofGlencorePLC,AngloAmerican,RioTintoplc,ifany.

"J.P.MorganSecuritiesCanadaInc.and/oritsaffiliatesisactingasfinancialadvisortoRioTintoinconnectionwithsaleoftheRoughriderUraniumProjecttoUraniumEnergyCorpasannouncedon10/12/2022.Thetransactionissubjecttoregulatoryapprovals.Thisresearchreportandtheinformationcontainedhereinisnotintendedtoprovidevotingadvice,serveasanendorsementoftheproposedtransactionorresultinprocurement,withholdingorrevocationofaproxyoranyotheractionbyasecurityholder."

Company-SpecificDisclosures:Importantdisclosures,includingpricechartsandcreditopinionhistorytables,areavailableforcompendiumreportsandallJ.P.Morgan–coveredcompanies,andcertainnon-coveredcompanies,byvisiting/research/disclosures,calling1-800-477-0406,ore-mailingresearch.disclosure.inquiries@withyourrequest.

ExplanationofEquityResearchRatings,DesignationsandAnalyst(s)CoverageUniverse:

J.P.Morganusesthefollowingratingsystem:Overweight[Overthenextsixtotwelvemonths,weexpectthisstockwilloutperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheanalyst’s(ortheanalyst’steam’s)coverageuniverse.]Neutral[Overthenextsixtotwelvemonths,weexpectthisstockwillperforminlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheanalyst’s(ortheanalyst’steam’s)coverageuniverse.]Underweight[Overthenextsixtotwelvemonths,weexpectthisstockwillunderperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheanalyst’s(ortheanalyst’steam’s)coverageuniverse.]NotRated(NR):J.P.Morganhasremovedtheratingand,ifapplicable,thepricetarget,forthisstockbecauseofeitheralackofasufficientfundamentalbasisorforlegal,regulatoryorpolicyreasons.Thepreviousratingand,ifapplicable,thepricetarget,nolongershouldbereliedupon.AnNRdesignationisnotarecommendationorarating.InourAsia(ex-Australiaandex-India)andU.K.small-andmid-capequityresearch,eachstock’sexpectedtotalreturniscomparedtotheexpectedtotalreturnofabenchmarkcountrymarketindex,nottothoseanalysts’coverageuniverse.IfitdoesnotappearintheImportantDisclosuressectionofthisreport,thecertifyinganalyst’scoverageuniversecanbefoundonJ.P.Morgan’sresearchwebsite,.

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CoverageUniverse:O'Kane,DominicJ:Acerinox(ACX.MC),AngloAmerican(AAL.L),AngloAmerican(AGLJ.J)(AGLJ.J),Aperam(APAM.AS),ArcelorMittal(MT.AS),BHPGroupLtd(BHGSJ)(BHGJ.J),BHPGroupLtd(BHPLN)(BHPB.L),GlencorePLC(GLEN.L),Glencoreplc(GLNSJ)(GLNJ.J),Outokumpu(OUT1V.HE),RioTintoplc(RIO.L),SSAB-A(SSABa.ST),SSAB-B(SSABb.ST),Salzgitter(SZGG.DE),ThyssenKrupp(TKAG.DE),Vesuvius(VSVS.L),voestalpine(VOES.VI)

J.P.MorganEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofJanuary01,2023

OverweightNeutralUnderweight

(buy)(hold)(sell)

J.P.MorganGlobalEquityResearchCoverage*IBclients**

48%

47%

37%

45%

14%

35%

JPMSEquityResearchCoverage*

IBclients**

47%

65%

40%

66%

13%

55%

*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmightnotaddto100%becauseofrounding.

**Percentageofsubjectcompanieswithineachofthe"buy,""hold"and"sell"categoriesforwhichJ.P.Morganhasprovided

investmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months.

ForpurposesonlyofFINRAratingsdistributionrules,ourOverweightratingfallsintoabuyratingcategory;ourNeutralratingfalls

intoaholdratingcategory;andourUnderweightratingfallsintoasellratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignation

arenotincludedinthetableabove.Thisinformationiscurrentasoftheendofthemostrecentcalendarquarter.

EquityValuationandRisks:Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithcoveredcompaniesorpricetargetsforcoveredcompanies,pleaseseethemostrecentcompany-specificresearchreportat,contacttheprimaryanalystoryourJ.P.Morganrepresentative,oremailresearch.disclosure.inquiries@.Formaterialinformationabouttheproprietarymodelsused,pleaseseetheSummaryofFinancialsincompany-specificresearchreportsandtheCompanyTearsheets,whichareavailabletodownloadonthecompanypagesofourclientwebsite,.Thisreportalsosetsoutwithinitthematerialunderlyingassumptionsused.

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MorganSecuritiesLLC,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241or2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

OtherDisclosures

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