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InternationalBusiness
9eByCharlesW.L.HillMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright?2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Chapter11TheInternationalMonetarySystemWhatIsTheInternationalMonetarySystem?TheinternationalmonetarysystemreferstotheinstitutionalarrangementsthatcountriesadopttogovernexchangeratesAfloatingexchangeratesystemexistswhenacountryallowstheforeignexchangemarkettodeterminetherelativevalueofacurrencytheU.S.dollar,theEUeuro,theJapaneseyen,andtheBritishpoundallfloatfreelyagainsteachothertheirvaluesaredeterminedbymarketforcesandfluctuatedaytodayWhatIsTheInternationalMonetarySystem?ApeggedexchangeratesystemexistswhenacountryfixesthevalueofitscurrencyrelativetoareferencecurrencymanyGulfstatespegtheircurrenciestotheU.S.dollarAdirtyfloat
existswhenacountrytriestoholdthevalueofitscurrencywithinsomerangeofareferencecurrencysuchastheU.S.dollarChinapegstheyuantoabasketofothercurrenciesWhatIsTheInternationalMonetarySystem?AfixedexchangeratesystemexistswhencountriesfixtheircurrenciesagainsteachotheratsomemutuallyagreedonexchangerateEuropeanMonetarySystem(EMS)priorto1999WhatWasTheGoldStandard?Thegoldstandardreferstoasysteminwhichcountriespegcurrenciestogoldandguaranteetheirconvertibilitythegoldstandarddatesbacktoancienttimeswhengoldcoinswereamediumofexchange,unitofaccount,andstoreofvaluepaymentforimportswasmadeingoldorsilverWhatWasTheGoldStandard?later,paymentwasmadeinpapercurrencywhichwaslinkedtogoldatafixedrateinthe1880s,mostnationsfollowedthegoldstandard$1=23.22grainsof“fine”(pure)goldthegoldparvaluereferstotheamountofacurrencyneededtopurchaseoneounceofgoldWhyDidThe
GoldStandardMakeSense?
Thegreatstrengthofthegoldstandardwasthatitcontainedapowerfulmechanismforachievingbalance-of-tradeequilibriumbyallcountrieswhentheincomeacountry’sresidentsearnfromitsexportsisequaltothemoneyitsresidentspayforimportsItisthisfeaturethatcontinuestopromptcallstoreturntoagoldstandardWhyDidThe
GoldStandardMakeSense?
Thegoldstandardworkedwellfromthe1870suntil1914but,manygovernmentsfinancedtheirWorldWarIexpendituresbyprintingmoneyandso,createdinflationPeoplelostconfidenceinthesystemdemandedgoldfortheircurrencyputtingpressureoncountries'goldreserves,andforcingthemtosuspendgoldconvertibilityBy1939,thegoldstandardwasdeadWhatWasThe
BrettonWoodsSystem?In1944,representativesfrom44countriesmetatBrettonWoods,NewHampshire,todesignanewinternationalmonetarysystemthatwouldfacilitatepostwareconomicgrowthUnderthenewagreementafixedexchangeratesystemwasestablishedallcurrencieswerefixedtogold,butonlytheU.S.dollarwasdirectlyconvertibletogolddevaluationscouldnottobeusedforcompetitivepurposesacountrycouldnotdevalueitscurrencybymorethan10%withoutIMFapprovalWhatInstitutionsWereEstablishedAtBrettonWoods?TheBrettonWoodsagreementalsoestablishedtwomultinationalinstitutionsTheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)tomaintainorderintheinternationalmonetarysystemthroughacombinationofdisciplineandflexibilityTheWorldBanktopromotegeneraleconomicdevelopmentalsocalledtheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(IBRD)WhatInstitutionsWereEstablishedAtBrettonWoods?TheInternationalMonetaryFund
(IMF)fixedexchangeratesstoppedcompetitivedevaluationsandbroughtstabilitytotheworldtradeenvironmentfixedexchangeratesimposedmonetarydisciplineoncountries,limitingpriceinflationincasesoffundamentaldisequilibrium,devaluationswerepermittedtheIMFlentforeigncurrenciestomembersduringshortperiodsofbalance-of-paymentsdeficit,whenarapidtighteningofmonetaryorfiscalpolicywouldhurtdomesticemploymentWhatInstitutionsWereEstablishedAtBrettonWoods?TheWorldBank
CountriescanborrowfromtheWorldBankintwowaysUndertheIBRDscheme,moneyisraisedthroughbondsalesintheinternationalcapitalmarketborrowerspayamarketrateofinterest-thebank'scostoffundsplusamarginforexpenses.ThroughtheInternationalDevelopmentAgency,anarmofthebankcreatedin1960IDAloansgoonlytothepoorestcountriesWhyDidTheFixedExchangeRateSystemCollapse?BrettonWoodsworkedwelluntilthelate1960sItcollapsedwhenhugeincreasesinwelfareprogramsandtheVietnamWarwerefinancedbyincreasingthemoneysupplyandcausingsignificantinflationothercountriesincreasedthevalueoftheircurrenciesrelativetotheU.S.dollarinresponsetospeculationthedollarwouldbedevaluedHowever,becausethesystemreliedonaneconomicallywellmanagedU.S.,whentheU.S.begantoprintmoney,runhightradedeficits,andexperiencehighinflation,thesystemwasstrainedtothebreakingpointtheU.S.dollarcameunderspeculativeattackWhatWasThe
JamaicaAgreement?Anewexchangeratesystemwasestablishedin1976atameetinginJamaicaTherulesthatwereagreedonthenarestillinplacetodayUndertheJamaicanagreementfloatingratesweredeclaredacceptablegoldwasabandonedasareserveassettotalannualIMFquotas-theamountmembercountriescontributetotheIMF-wereincreasedto$41billion–todaytheyareabout$300billionWhatHasHappenedToExchangeRatesSince1973?Since1973,exchangerateshavebeenmorevolatileandlesspredictablethantheywerebetween1945and1973becauseofthe1971and1979oilcrisesthelossofconfidenceinthedollarafterU.S.inflationin1977-78theriseinthedollarbetween1980and1985thepartialcollapseoftheEMSin1992the1997Asiancurrencycrisisthedeclineinthedollarfrom2001to2009WhatHasHappenedTo
ExchangeRatesSince1973?MajorCurrenciesDollarIndex,1973-2010WhichIsBetter–Fixed
RatesOrFloatingRates?FloatingexchangeratesprovideMonetarypolicyautonomyremovingtheobligationtomaintainexchangerateparityrestoresmonetarycontroltoagovernmentAutomatictradebalanceadjustmentsunderBrettonWoods,ifacountrydevelopedapermanentdeficitinitsbalanceoftradethatcouldnotbecorrectedbydomesticpolicy,theIMFwouldhavetoagreetoacurrencydevaluationWhichIsBetter–FixedRatesOrFloatingRates?But,afixedexchangeratesystemProvidesmonetarydisciplineensuresthatgovernmentsdonotexpandtheirmoneysuppliesatinflationaryratesMinimizesspeculationcausesuncertaintyReducesuncertaintypromotesgrowthofinternationaltradeandinvestmentWhoIsRight?ThereisnorealagreementastowhichsystemisbetterWeknowthataBrettonWoods-stylefixedexchangerateregimewillnotworkButadifferentkindoffixedexchangeratesystemmightbemoreenduringcouldencouragestabilitythatwouldfacilitatemorerapidgrowthininternationaltradeandinvestmentWhatTypeofExchangeRateSystemIsInPracticeToday?Variousexchangerateregimesarefollowedtoday14%ofIMFmembersfollowafreefloatpolicy26%ofIMFmembersfollowamanagedfloatsystem22%ofIMFmembershavenolegaltenderoftheirownex.EuroZonecountriestheremainingcountriesuselessflexiblesystemssuchaspeggedarrangements,oradjustablepegsWhatTypeofExchangeRateSystemIsInPracticeToday?ExchangeRatePoliciesofIMFMembersWhatIsAPeggedRateSystem?Acountryfollowingapeggedexchangeratesystempegsthevalueofitscurrencytothatofanothermajorcurrencypopularamongtheworld’ssmallernationsimposesmonetarydisciplineandleadstolowinflationadoptingapeggedexchangerateregimecanmoderateinflationarypressuresinacountryWhatIsACurrencyBoard?Countriesusingacurrencyboardcommittoconvertingtheirdomesticcurrencyondemandintoanothercurrencyatafixedexchangeratethecurrencyboardholdsreservesofforeigncurrencyequalatthefixedexchangeratetoatleast100%ofthedomesticcurrencyissuedthecurrencyboardcanissueadditionaldomesticnotesandcoinsonlywhenthereareforeignexchangereservestobackthemWhatIsTheRole
OfTheIMFToday?Today,theIMFfocusesonlendingmoneytocountriesinfinancialcrisisTherearethreemaintypesoffinancialcrises:CurrencycrisisBankingcrisisForeigndebtcrisisWhatIsTheRole
OfTheIMFToday?Acurrencycrisis
occurswhenaspeculativeattackontheexchangevalueofacurrencyresultsinasharpdepreciationinthevalueofthecurrency,orforcesauthoritiestoexpendlargevolumesofinternationalcurrencyreservesandsharplyincreaseinterestratesinordertodefendprevailingexchangeratesBrazil2002WhatIsTheRole
OfTheIMFToday?Abankingcrisisreferstoasituationinwhichalossofconfidenceinthebankingsystemleadstoarunonthebanks,asindividualsandcompanieswithdrawtheirdepositsAforeigndebtcrisisisasituationinwhichacountrycannotserviceitsforeigndebtobligations,whetherprivatesectororgovernmentdebtGreeceandIreland2010WhatWasTheMexicanCurrencyCrisisOf1995?
TheMexicancurrencycrisisof1995wasaresultofhighMexicandebtsapeggedexchangeratethatdidnotallowforanaturaladjustmentofpricesTokeepMexicofromdefaultingonitsdebt,theIMFcreateda$50billionaidpackagerequiredtightmonetarypolicyandcutsinpublicspendingWhatWasThe
AsianCurrencyCrisis?The1997SoutheastAsianfinancialcrisiswascausedbyeventsthattookplaceinthepreviousdecadeincludingAninvestmentboom-fueledbyhugeincreasesinexportsExcesscapacity-investmentswerebasedonprojectionsoffuturedemandconditionsHighdebt-investmentsweresupportedbydollar-baseddebtsExpandingimports–causedcurrentaccountdeficitsWhatWasThe
AsianCurrencyCrisis?Bymid-1997,severalkeyThaifinancialinstitutionswereonthevergeofdefaultspeculationagainstthebahtThailandabandonedthebahtpegandallowedthecurrencytofloatTheIMFprovideda$17billionbailoutloanpackagerequiredhighertaxes,publicspendingcuts,privatizationofstate-ownedbusinesses,andhigherinterestratesWhatWasThe
AsianCurrencyCrisis?SpeculationcausedotherAsiancurrenciesincludingtheMalaysianRinggit,theIndonesianRupaihandtheSingaporeDollartofallThesedevaluationsweremainlydrivenby
excessinvestmentandhighborrowings,muchofitindollardenominateddebtadeterioratingbalanceofpaymentspositionWhatWasThe
AsianCurrencyCrisis?TheIMFprovideda$37billionaidpackageforIndonesiarequiredpublicspendingcuts,closureoftroubledbanks,abalancedbudget,andanendtocronycapitalismTheIMFprovideda$55billionaidpackagetoSouthKorearequiredamoreopenbankingsystemandeconomy,andrestraintbychaebolHowHasTheIMFDone?By2010,theIMFwascommittingloansto68countriesineconomicandcurrencycrisisAllIMFloanpackagesrequiretightmacroeconomicandmonetarypolicyHowever,criticsworrythe“one-size-fits-all”approachtomacroeconomicpolicyisinapp
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