道格拉斯公司銷售數(shù)據(jù)決策案例分析課件

TongjiUniversityMBA2010Group6道格拉斯微波爐案例分析TongjiUniversityMBA2010Gro1小組成員分工1小組成員分工12問題解決方案2原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐銷量調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算問題解決方案2原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐銷量模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)3原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐的家庭擁有量年度197917801981198219831984國內(nèi)銷量110,000125,000150,000180,000220,000265,000總擁有量458,000583,000733,000913,0001,133,0001,398,000家庭擁有比6.10%7.50%9.20%11.20%13.50%16.20%3原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐的家庭擁有量年度1979國內(nèi)銷量1104原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)4份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...53521原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)4份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(25數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)5樣本平均數(shù)計算直接計算平均用戶購買數(shù)模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)5樣本平均數(shù)計算直接計算平均用戶購買6數(shù)據(jù)計算份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...535216樣本購買總數(shù)2122樣本購買總數(shù)3373樣本人數(shù)312樣本人數(shù)312平均購買數(shù)10.81平均購買數(shù)6.80樣本方差179.95樣本方差143.98樣本方差計算數(shù)據(jù)計算份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(20)1856樣本購7平均值置信區(qū)間計算選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=312n2=312S1=13.41s2=12.00置信區(qū)間代入公式計算d1=1.49d2=1.34選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n7大樣本近似計算法d=Zα/2σ/√￣≈Zα/2S/√￣nn計算機計算t分布d=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n平均值置信區(qū)間計算選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.8預(yù)計年銷量151,203,87467,629,51164,178,73086,037,34781,948,558108,236,750102,072,351134,816,033126,668,098167,301,825156,294,794206,432,437預(yù)計年銷量230,033,66744,726,02538,230,62956,932,90948,066,98371,581,17159,870,60889,159,08474,297,260110,643,20191,674,819136,521,796預(yù)計銷量計算平均購買區(qū)間1￣-d，

￣+d9.32~12.31XX平均購買區(qū)間2￣-d，

￣+d5.46~8.14XX預(yù)計月銷量14,266,9895,635,7935,431,5617,173,9466,829,0469,019,7298,506,02911,234,66910,555,67513,941,81913,024,56617,202,703預(yù)計月銷量22,502,8063,727,1693,185,8864,744,4094,005,5825,965,0984,989,2177,429,9246,191,4389,220,2677,639,56811,376,816總擁有量458,000583,000733,000913,0001,133,0001,398,000年度1979198019811982198319848年度12個月預(yù)計年銷量151,203,87467,629,511預(yù)計9總結(jié)分析關(guān)鍵：通過樣本平均值計算置信區(qū)間下整體平均值區(qū)間獲得市場上微波爐的保有量。抽取樣本，計算樣本中平均每臺微波爐的平均產(chǎn)品消費數(shù)量。根據(jù)樣本推算整個市場中產(chǎn)品的在某置信區(qū)間條件下，平均銷售置信區(qū)間，計算整個市場年銷售量的上下限。分別計算不同的售價下的產(chǎn)品銷售狀況，與成本等參數(shù)核算，計算出該產(chǎn)品是否盈利。綜合考慮其他各因素，決定是否投產(chǎn)。進一步思考，如果把數(shù)據(jù)分成兩類，分步計算會如何？分類后產(chǎn)生兩個置信度，一個是比例置信區(qū)間。另外一個是平均購買數(shù)置信區(qū)間。9總結(jié)分析關(guān)鍵：通過樣本平均值計算置信區(qū)間下整體平均值區(qū)間獲得10數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)10兩步法計算計算購買產(chǎn)品用戶比例計算這些用戶的平均購買數(shù)模型工具選取比例置信區(qū)間分析平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)10兩步法計算計算購買產(chǎn)品用戶比例模11原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...53521購買者在樣本中所占的比例第15題為66.99%第20題為40.71%11原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(2012數(shù)據(jù)計算-兩步法份/月12345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)8125269...113831人數(shù)(20)373196...53521樣本購買總數(shù)2122樣本購買總數(shù)3373樣本人數(shù)127樣本人數(shù)209平均購買數(shù)16.14平均購買數(shù)16.71樣本方差182.67樣本方差188.53樣本方差計算購買者在樣本中所占的比例第15題為66.99%第20題為40.71%12數(shù)據(jù)計算-兩步法份/月1人數(shù)(15)8人數(shù)(20)3樣本購買13比例置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=209n2=127Ps1=66.99%Ps2=40.71%

置信區(qū)間查正態(tài)分布表Φ(x)=0.975找到Zα/2=1.96帶入公式計算d1=6.38%d2=8.54%選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=Zα/2√￣￣￣Ps(1-Ps)/n13比例置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α14平均值置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=209n2=127δ1≈13.52δ2≈13.73置信區(qū)間代入公式計算d1=1.83d2=2.39選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n14平均值置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值15購買產(chǎn)品的微波爐數(shù)量1227,601336,001353,366427,705444,283537,749553,384669,802686,729831,200847,3501,025,611購買產(chǎn)品的微波爐數(shù)量2147,2966225,563187,496287,125235,737361,000293,626449,649364,380557,998449,605688,510預(yù)計月銷量13,971,4676,038,3265,055,3837,686,3416,356,0829,663,9597,916,92012,037,1009,824,61214,937,60612,122,51318,431,398預(yù)計月銷量22,109,3674,307,5132,685,0675,483,1453,375,9086,893,9024,204,9168,586,8115,218,14910,655,9236,438,63413,148,261預(yù)計年銷量147,657,60572,459,91660,664,59492,236,09476,272,980115,967,50795,003,043144,445,203117,895,342179,251,276145,470,157221,176,774預(yù)計年銷量225,312,39951,690,16032,220,80565,797,73640,510,89282,726,82850,458,996103,041,73862,647,790127,871,07277,263,611157,779,134購買比例區(qū)間1Ps-d，

Ps+d60.61%~73.36%購買比例區(qū)間2Ps-d，

Ps+d32.16%~49.25%平均購買區(qū)間1￣-d，

￣+d14.31~17.97XX平均購買區(qū)間2￣-d，

￣+d14.32~19.10XX預(yù)計銷量計算-兩步法總擁有量458,000583,000733,000913,0001,133,0001,398,000年度197919801981198219831984年度12個月15購買產(chǎn)品的微波爐數(shù)量1227,601336,001購買產(chǎn)16預(yù)計月銷量13,971,4676,038,3265,055,3837,686,3416,356,0829,663,9597,916,92012,037,1009,824,61214,937,60612,122,51318,431,398比較分析預(yù)計月銷量22,109,3674,307,5132,685,0675,483,1453,375,9086,893,9024,204,9168,586,8115,218,14910,655,9236,438,63413,148,261兩步法計算一步法計算預(yù)計月銷量14,266,9895,635,7935,431,5617,173,9466,829,0469,019,7298,506,02911,234,66910,555,67513,941,81913,024,56617,202,703預(yù)計月銷量22,502,8063,727,1693,185,8864,744,4094,005,5825,965,0984,989,2177,429,9246,191,4389,220,2677,639,56811,376,81616預(yù)計月銷量13,971,4676,038,326比較分析17謝謝聆聽！17謝謝聆聽！1718TongjiUniversityMBA2010Group6道格拉斯微波爐案例分析TongjiUniversityMBA2010Gro19小組成員分工1小組成員分工120問題解決方案2原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐銷量調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算問題解決方案2原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐銷量模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)21原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐的家庭擁有量年度197917801981198219831984國內(nèi)銷量110,000125,000150,000180,000220,000265,000總擁有量458,000583,000733,000913,0001,133,0001,398,000家庭擁有比6.10%7.50%9.20%11.20%13.50%16.20%3原始數(shù)據(jù)分析微波爐的家庭擁有量年度1979國內(nèi)銷量11022原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)4份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...53521原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)4份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(223數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)5樣本平均數(shù)計算直接計算平均用戶購買數(shù)模型工具選取平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)5樣本平均數(shù)計算直接計算平均用戶購買24數(shù)據(jù)計算份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...535216樣本購買總數(shù)2122樣本購買總數(shù)3373樣本人數(shù)312樣本人數(shù)312平均購買數(shù)10.81平均購買數(shù)6.80樣本方差179.95樣本方差143.98樣本方差計算數(shù)據(jù)計算份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(20)1856樣本購25平均值置信區(qū)間計算選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=312n2=312S1=13.41s2=12.00置信區(qū)間代入公式計算d1=1.49d2=1.34選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n7大樣本近似計算法d=Zα/2σ/√￣≈Zα/2S/√￣nn計算機計算t分布d=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n平均值置信區(qū)間計算選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.26預(yù)計年銷量151,203,87467,629,51164,178,73086,037,34781,948,558108,236,750102,072,351134,816,033126,668,098167,301,825156,294,794206,432,437預(yù)計年銷量230,033,66744,726,02538,230,62956,932,90948,066,98371,581,17159,870,60889,159,08474,297,260110,643,20191,674,819136,521,796預(yù)計銷量計算平均購買區(qū)間1￣-d，

￣+d9.32~12.31XX平均購買區(qū)間2￣-d，

￣+d5.46~8.14XX預(yù)計月銷量14,266,9895,635,7935,431,5617,173,9466,829,0469,019,7298,506,02911,234,66910,555,67513,941,81913,024,56617,202,703預(yù)計月銷量22,502,8063,727,1693,185,8864,744,4094,005,5825,965,0984,989,2177,429,9246,191,4389,220,2677,639,56811,376,816總擁有量458,000583,000733,000913,0001,133,0001,398,000年度1979198019811982198319848年度12個月預(yù)計年銷量151,203,87467,629,511預(yù)計27總結(jié)分析關(guān)鍵：通過樣本平均值計算置信區(qū)間下整體平均值區(qū)間獲得市場上微波爐的保有量。抽取樣本，計算樣本中平均每臺微波爐的平均產(chǎn)品消費數(shù)量。根據(jù)樣本推算整個市場中產(chǎn)品的在某置信區(qū)間條件下，平均銷售置信區(qū)間，計算整個市場年銷售量的上下限。分別計算不同的售價下的產(chǎn)品銷售狀況，與成本等參數(shù)核算，計算出該產(chǎn)品是否盈利。綜合考慮其他各因素，決定是否投產(chǎn)。進一步思考，如果把數(shù)據(jù)分成兩類，分步計算會如何？分類后產(chǎn)生兩個置信度，一個是比例置信區(qū)間。另外一個是平均購買數(shù)置信區(qū)間。9總結(jié)分析關(guān)鍵：通過樣本平均值計算置信區(qū)間下整體平均值區(qū)間獲得28數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)10兩步法計算計算購買產(chǎn)品用戶比例計算這些用戶的平均購買數(shù)模型工具選取比例置信區(qū)間分析平均值置信區(qū)間分析推算預(yù)計銷量Excel計算數(shù)據(jù)計算分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)10兩步法計算計算購買產(chǎn)品用戶比例模29原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)份/月012345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)1038125269...113831人數(shù)(20)185373196...53521購買者在樣本中所占的比例第15題為66.99%第20題為40.71%11原始數(shù)據(jù)分析調(diào)查問卷數(shù)據(jù)份/月0人數(shù)(15)103人數(shù)(2030數(shù)據(jù)計算-兩步法份/月12345...4045485060人數(shù)(15)8125269...113831人數(shù)(20)373196...53521樣本購買總數(shù)2122樣本購買總數(shù)3373樣本人數(shù)127樣本人數(shù)209平均購買數(shù)16.14平均購買數(shù)16.71樣本方差182.67樣本方差188.53樣本方差計算購買者在樣本中所占的比例第15題為66.99%第20題為40.71%12數(shù)據(jù)計算-兩步法份/月1人數(shù)(15)8人數(shù)(20)3樣本購買31比例置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=209n2=127Ps1=66.99%Ps2=40.71%

置信區(qū)間查正態(tài)分布表Φ(x)=0.975找到Zα/2=1.96帶入公式計算d1=6.38%d2=8.54%選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=Zα/2√￣￣￣Ps(1-Ps)/n13比例置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α32平均值置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值α=0.05n1=209n2=127δ1≈13.52δ2≈13.73置信區(qū)間代入公式計算d1=1.83d2=2.39選取分布模型樣本n數(shù)量較大使用正態(tài)分布替代t分布置信區(qū)間dd=tα/2,(n-1)S/√￣n14平均值置信區(qū)間計算-兩步法選取置信度取置信度為95%數(shù)值取值33購買產(chǎn)品的微波爐數(shù)量1227,601336,001353,366427,705444,283537,749553,384669,802686,729831,200847,3501,025,611購買產(chǎn)品的微波爐數(shù)量2147,2966225,563187,496287,125235,737361,000293,626449,649364,380557,998449,605688,510預(yù)計月銷量13,971,4676,038,3265,055,3837,686,3416,356,0829,663,9597,916,92012,037,1009,824,61214,937,60612,122,51318,431,398預(yù)計月銷量22,109,3674,307,5132,685,0675,483,1453,375,9086,893,9024,204,9168,586,8115,218,14910,655,9236,438,63413,148,261預(yù)計年銷量147,657,60572,459,91660,664,59492,236,09476,272,980115,967,50795,003,043144,445,203117,895,342179,251,276145,470,157221,176,774預(yù)計年銷量225,312,39951,690,16032,220,