XXXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境

第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境

EconomicAccountingandEnvironment第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算第二節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與人類福利第三節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境2022/12/822第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算

EconomicAccounting一、經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類

EconomicSectorClassification很多國家都有自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類MostcountrieshaveaclassificationsystemfortheireconomicsectorsUS(previouslySIC–StandardIndustrialClassification)NowNAICS(NorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem)UN(SNA–SystemofNationalAccounts)2022/12/833經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類EconomicSectorClassification分類有利于Thisclassificationfacilitates經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和投入的系統(tǒng)核算（國民收入和產(chǎn)品賬戶）Systematicaccountingoftheoutputoftheeconomyanduseoftheoutput(NationalIncomeandProductAccountsNIPA)監(jiān)測和報(bào)告績效，如GDPMonitoringandreportingofperformancemeasuressuchasGrossDomesticProduct比較和基準(zhǔn)Comparisonandbenchmarking規(guī)劃和預(yù)測[投入產(chǎn)出分析]Planningandforecasting[Input-OutputAnalysis]2022/12/844行業(yè)分類MajorindustriesinChinaA農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHuntingB采礦業(yè)MiningC制造業(yè)

ManufacturingD電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)Utilitiesandsupplyindustryonelectricity,heat,gasandwaterE建筑業(yè)

ConstructionF批發(fā)和零售業(yè)WholesaleTradeandRetailTradeG交通運(yùn)輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)Transportation,storageandpostalservicesI信息傳輸、軟件和信息技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)transferinformation,softwareandITservices2022/12/85J金融業(yè)

FinancialIndustryK房地產(chǎn)業(yè)

RealEstateL租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)LeasingandBusinessServicesM科學(xué)研究和技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)scientificandtechnicalservicesN水利、環(huán)境和公共設(shè)施管理業(yè)Water,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementindustryO居民服務(wù)、修理和其他服務(wù)業(yè)residentservices,repairsandotherservicesP教育

EducationQ衛(wèi)生和社會工作HealthandsocialworkR文化、體育和娛樂業(yè)Culture,SportsandEntertainmentS公共管理、社會保障和社會組織publicadministration,socialsecurityandsocialorganizationsT國際組織InternationalOrganizations52022/12/866A農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHunting01 農(nóng)業(yè)011 谷物種植0111 稻谷種植 0112 小麥種植 0113 玉米種植 0119 其他谷物種植

012 豆類、油料和薯類種植 013 棉、麻、糖、煙草種植 014 蔬菜、食用菌及園藝作物種植 015 水果種植 016 堅(jiān)果、含油果、香料和飲料作物種植 017 0170 中藥材種植 019 0190 其他農(nóng)業(yè)2022/12/8702 林業(yè)021 林木育種和育苗 0211 林木育種0212 林木育苗022 0220 造林和更新023 0230 森林經(jīng)營和管護(hù) 024 木材和竹材采運(yùn)0241 木材采運(yùn) 0242 竹材采運(yùn) 025 林產(chǎn)品采集0251 木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集0252 非木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集2022/12/888二、投入產(chǎn)出分析Input-OutputAnalysis經(jīng)濟(jì)是由復(fù)雜而相互依存的部分（農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、政府、消費(fèi)者、其它國家等）組成的Theeconomyconsistsofcomplexandinterdependentsectors(Ag-Mfg-Service-Govt-Consumers-Othercountries)1、投入產(chǎn)出分析的概念★投入產(chǎn)出分析是一種運(yùn)用會計(jì)和簡單的模型來表達(dá)農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、政府、消費(fèi)者、其它國家等相互依存的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系Input-outputanalysisisanaccountingandsimplemodelingtechniquetorepresenttheseeconomicinterdependencies區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出分析是在區(qū)域水平上的投入產(chǎn)出分析Regionalinput-outputanalysisisIOanalysisdoneataregionallevel2022/12/899以GDP作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)效果和福利的問題

ProblemswithGDPasameasureofeconomicperformanceandwellbeing包括了防御性支出IncludesdefensiveexpendituresE.g.FluepidemicorHurricanesorpollutioncontrolexpendituresorwaronterror沒扣除自然、社會或人力資本DoesnotdeductdepreciationofNatural,Social,orHumancapital[onlymanmadecapitalisdepreciatedincalculatingNDP]Ores,fossilfuelstockreductionMarineresourceloss,deforestation,airandwaterqualitychangesLossofinstitutions,skills沒包括所有非市場商品和服務(wù)Excludesallnon-marketgoodsandservicesEnvironmental/EcosystemservicesHomeservicesLeisure第二節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與人類福利

EconomicGrowthandHumanWellbeing一、貧富二、貧富差異的原因三、推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因素四、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的愿景五、衡量福利的非經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)六、需要與欲望一、貧富Therichandthepoor★經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)Keyideasoneconomicgrowth一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)力力Productionwithinaperiod––howtomodel跨時(shí)期的增增長GrowthacrossperiodsBycapitalaccumulationBytechnologyraisingproductivity二、貧富差差異的原因因★Whyaresomecountriesrichandsomepoor?1、自然資資源和條件件差異Naturalresources&conditions2、增長率率不同GrowthrateWhyhavesomegrownmorethanothers?2022/12/813WhyEconomicGrowthseemsdesirable:1.人人均壽命與與人均GDP的關(guān)系系LongevityandGDP/capita2022/12/8142.嬰嬰幼幼兒兒死死亡亡率率與與人人均均GDP的的關(guān)關(guān)系系InfantmortalityandGDP/capita2022/12/8153.成成人人識識字字率率與與人人均均GDP的的關(guān)關(guān)系系LiteracyandGDP/capita2022/12/8164、幸福福感與與人均均收入入HappinessandIncomepercapita2022/12/817三、經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增增長的的趨動動力★WhatDrivesEconomicGrowth?P146一定時(shí)時(shí)期內(nèi)內(nèi)的生生產(chǎn)函函數(shù)取取決于于資本存存量和和勞動動力Withinaperiod:ProductionfunctionCapitalstock,Labor不同時(shí)時(shí)期則則取決決于Changesbetweenperiods儲蓄、、投資資和資資本積積累Savings,investment&capitalaccumulation技術(shù)進(jìn)進(jìn)步TechnologicalchangeP156Endogenous(functionofR&Dinvestmentinknowledgeandhumancapital)Exogenous2022/12/8181、經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增增長模模型ModelingEconomicGrowth:1)生生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)函數(shù)數(shù)ProductionFunctionP147NationalIncome=output(Y)Y=f(capital,labor,naturalresources)-TreatNRasaspecialcategory(ofcapital)Y=f(K,L,R)Y=Kα×Lβ×RδCobb-DouglasProductionFunction(α+β+δ=1forconstantreturnstoscale)Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1(解釋釋模型型illustrativemodel)2022/12/8192)儲儲蓄、、投資資和資資本積積累Savings,InvestmentandCapitalaccumulationP149S=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+ItMoreyousave,largeriscapitalstocknextyear,hencehigheryouroutputIfSavingsrate>PopulationgrowthThencapitalperworkerisincreasing,somoreoutputpercapitaButdecliningmarginalproductivityofcapital,sorateofincomegrowthdeclining(duetoshapeofproductionfunction)2022/12/8203、、技技術(shù)術(shù)與與效效率率TechnologyandProductivityP155生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)函函數(shù)數(shù)Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1加上上效效率率因因素素(a,b,c)Y=aK0.2×bL0.7×cR0.1如果果a,borc≠≠1.0，，結(jié)結(jié)果果會會怎怎么么樣樣？？Whatifa,borc≠≠1.0?2022/12/821Productivityandgrowthrate假設(shè)設(shè)=a××b××c,那那么么:Y=(K0.2×L0.7×R0.1)如果果低低效效率率國國家家LE的的=1，，而而高高效效率率國國家家ME的=1.2那么在相同同的初始狀狀態(tài)L,K,R和儲儲蓄率下，，高效率國國家有高產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出和高收收入SameinitialL,K,RandsavingsrateMEwillalwayshavehigheroutput/income2022/12/822TimeYLE(=1.0)ME(=1.2)Incomegrowthratesformore-efficient(ME)andless-efficient(LE)productivityYt=t(Kt0.2xLt0.7xRt0.1)2022/12/823Whatdrivesefficiency?外生性增長長ExogenousefficiencygrowthLuckybreaks:Goodweather,etc.內(nèi)源性增長長Endogenousefficiencygrowth新技術(shù)術(shù)Newtechnology改善管管理Improvedmanagementt=f(Kt-1);intextbook:t=Kt-10.62022/12/824Recap:DriversofGDPgrowth加大投投入Moreinputuse(L,K,R)增加資資本積積累Morecapitalaccumulated(K)提高效效率Moreefficiency(t)EndogenousefficiencygrowthisbasedonKt-1Sohowtoencouragethese?2022/12/825激勵(lì)與與行為為IncentivesandbehaviorWhatmakespeoplesavemore?文化習(xí)俗俗Culturalnorms儲蓄收益益Likelihoodofgainfromsaving利率Interestrates(returnoncapitalownership)稅率Taxrates回報(bào)的波波動性Volatilityofreturns產(chǎn)權(quán)安全全性Securityofpropertyrights2022/12/826一、環(huán)境境影響恒恒等式IPATmodelP1801、環(huán)境影響響恒等式式I=P××A××TI=EnvironmentalImpact(resourceextractionandWasteinsertion)P=人人口數(shù)量量PopulationA=富富裕程度度Affluence(percapitaconsumptionorGDP/P)T=技技術(shù)水平平Technology(Envimpact/unitconsumption)第三節(jié)經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)增長與與環(huán)境EconomicGrowthandtheEnvironment2022/12/827ExampleforIPATmodelGlobalemissionsofCO22000年，P=6billion,A=$7000,T=0.00055tons/$I=6×7000××0.00055I=23.1billiontonsI=PATisanidentity!它指出了經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動是是對環(huán)境影影響最直接接的決定因因素2022/12/8282、IPAT情情景分析析ScenarioanalysisusingIPAT人口增長Populationgrowth(functionoffertility)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長Economicgrowth(Affluencegrowth)技術(shù)進(jìn)步Technologychange2022/12/8293、技術(shù)需求WhattechnologychangesareneededtokeepconstantCO2emissions?T*2050=23100/(P2050*A2050)Low/Low=0.4638High/high=0.0772DisaggregatedIPATIi=PATjjcanbespecificpollutants,icanbespecificindustries2022/12/830二、、經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)增增長長與與環(huán)環(huán)境境關(guān)關(guān)系系的的模模擬擬ModelingGrowthandtheEnvironmentProductionfunctionY=Kα×Lβ×RδSavings/InvestmentfunctionS=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+ItRwasnaturalresourceuse2022/12/8311、、自然然資資源源對對經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)增增長長產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生生制制約約了了嗎嗎？？Donaturalresourcesimposelimitstoeconomicgrowth?自然然資資源源Naturalresources不可可再再生生資資源源Nonrenewableresources(fixedstocks)可再再生生資資源源Renewableresources(thereisalimitonmaximumsustainableharvest)自然然資資源源能能被被投投資資和和勞勞力力替替代代嗎嗎？？CanRbesubstitutedwithKandL?技術(shù)進(jìn)進(jìn)步的的作用用？WhataboutTechnologicalprogress?2022/12/8322、替代的的可能能性SubstitutionPossibilitiesPerfectsubstitutionY=αK+βL+δR有限替替代Limitedsubstitution(i.e.atadecreasingrate