商務(wù)英語閱讀Chapter2AChangedGlobalReality世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局新變化

..Chapter2AChangedGlobalReality世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局新變化Saythisfortheyoungcentury:weliveininterestingtimes.Notquite21?2yearsago,theworldeconomytippedintothemostseveredownturnsincetheGreatDepressioninthe1930s.Worldtradeslowedsharply.Unemploymentlinesgrewlonger,especiallyintheoldindustrialeconomies.Financialinstitutionsthathadseemedassolidasgranitedisappearedasiftheywerenomoresubstantialthanabunchofflowersinthehandsofanold-stylemagician.對于新世紀(jì),我們得這樣說：我們生活在一個(gè)有趣的時(shí)代。差不多兩年半之前,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入了20世紀(jì)30年代經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條時(shí)期以來最慘重的低迷狀態(tài)。世界貿(mào)易進(jìn)程大幅放緩。失業(yè)隊(duì)伍也越來越快,這在舊工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系表現(xiàn)尤為突出。原來堅(jiān)如磐石的金融機(jī)構(gòu)也消失了,似乎還不如老套的魔術(shù)師變的花束看起來真實(shí)。Giventhatthescaleofthedownturnwassoepochal,itshouldnotbesurprisingthatthenatureoftherecoverywouldlikewisebethestuffofhistory.Andithasbeen.AstheymaketheirwaytoDavosfortheannualmeetingoftheWorldEconomicForum<WEF>byhelicopter,bus,carortrain<whichistherightwaytodoit>,themembersoftheglobaleconomicandpoliticalelitewillfindthemselvescomingtotermswithsomethingtheyhaveneverknownbefore.考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退幅度如此的跨時(shí)代,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程會(huì)很慢也是理所當(dāng)然的,對此我們不應(yīng)該感到吃驚。事實(shí)也正如我們所料,復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程確實(shí)很慢。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英乘直升飛機(jī)、大巴、小汽車或是火車前往達(dá)沃斯參加一年一度的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇會(huì)議,此次會(huì)議上,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政治精英會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己開始接受一些聞所未聞的事情。Thenewrealitycanbeexpressedlikethis.Formorethan200years,sincetheIndustrialRevolution,theworldhasseentwoeconomies.Onehasdominatedtechnologicalinnovationandtradeandamassedgreatwealth.Thesecond—muchofitpoliticallyunderthethumbofthefirst—hasremainedpoorandtechnologicallydependent.Thisdivideremainsstubbornlyreal.Therichworld—theU.S.,Canada,WesternEurope,Australia,NewZealand,JapanandthefouroriginalAsiandragons—accountsforonly16%oftotalworldpopulationbutnearly70%ofworldoutput.當(dāng)今的情況是這樣的。自工業(yè)革命以來的二百多年間,世界出現(xiàn)了兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。一個(gè)支配著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和貿(mào)易,累積了大量財(cái)富。另一個(gè)在政治上主要受前者的控制,在經(jīng)濟(jì)上一直處于貧窮狀態(tài)并且在技術(shù)上存在依賴性。兩者的鴻亙古存在。發(fā)達(dá)國家----美國、加拿大、西歐、澳大利亞、新西蘭、日本及亞洲四小龍,以世界總?cè)丝诘?6%輸出著世界將近70%的產(chǎn)品。Butchangeisuponus.Thedevelopedworldofthehavesisstrugglingtorestartgrowthandpreservewelfarestates,whiletheworldoftheoncehave-notshassurgedoutofthedownturn.BigemergingeconomieslikeChinaandIndiahavediscoverednewsourcesofdomesticdemand.PartsofAfricaareattractingrealinterestfrominvestors.Alltold,thestrengthofthedevelopingworldhassupportedtheglobaleconomy.TheWorldBankestimatesthateconomicgrowthinlow-andmiddle-incomecountriescontributedalmosthalfofworldgrowth<46%>in2010.世界形勢正發(fā)生著變化。在發(fā)達(dá)國家的富人們努力重新刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并維持社會(huì)福利的時(shí)候,曾經(jīng)的窮人們卻已經(jīng)擺脫了經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。像中國和印度這樣大的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)找到了國內(nèi)需求的新來源。非洲的部分地區(qū)也正吸引著對他們真正感興趣的投資者。總之,發(fā)展中國家的力量撐起了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。據(jù)世界銀行估計(jì),20XX,中低收入國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長約占世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一半〔46%。ASighofRelief經(jīng)濟(jì)回暖,令人欣慰Inthelongterm,thisisnothingbutgoodnews.Asbillionsofpoorpeoplebecomemoreprosperous,theywillbeabletoaffordthecomfortstheircounterpartsintherichworldhavelongconsideredthenormalappurtenancesoflife.Butbeforewecelebrateaneweconomicorder,deepdivisionsbothbetweenandwithinnationshavetobeovercome.Otherwise,theworldcouldyettipbackintoabeggar-thy-neighborpopulismthatwillendupbeggaringeveryone.Wearenotoutofthewoodsyet.從長遠(yuǎn)看來,這真的是個(gè)好消息。隨著幾十億的貧苦人們開始變得富有起來,他們也將能夠支付得起發(fā)達(dá)國家的人們所擁有過的享受,而這些享受在富人們眼中僅僅是普通的生活附屬品而已。但是,在慶祝一個(gè)新的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序建立之前,我們必須克服國與國之間以及國家內(nèi)部存在的深層分歧。否則,世界將會(huì)重新陷入以鄰為壑的民粹主義,最終每個(gè)人都淪為乞丐,我們?nèi)晕疵撾x困境。First,though,let'sassesshowthingsstand.Theworldisinamuchbetterstatethanmanyexpecteditwouldbeayearago.Thedouble-diprecessionsomeeconomistsfearednevermaterialized.IntheU.S.,whichseemedtostallinthesummer,thereareearlysignsthatconsumersarespendingandbanksarelendingagain,whilethestockmarketisatitshighestpointin21?2years.ThoughEuropeiswheezingundercascadingsovereign-debtcrises,ithassofaravoidedtheworst-casescenarios—acollapseoftheeuro,adebtcrisisthatspillsfromsmalleconomiessuchasGreeceandIrelandtomuchbiggeroneslikeItalyandSpain,andbittersocialunrestinthosenationsthatarehavingtomassagewagesdownwhilecuttingpublicbudgets.不過首先讓我們評(píng)估一下目前情況?，F(xiàn)在世界的狀況比一年前我們所想象的要好得多。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直害怕發(fā)生的"雙底衰退"也從未出現(xiàn)過。20XX的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎一直停滯不前,但是現(xiàn)在一些早期跡象表明顧客開始消費(fèi)了,銀行也開始發(fā)放貸款了,同時(shí)股市也在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條兩年半之后達(dá)到了巔峰狀態(tài)。盡管歐洲一直在一重接一重的主權(quán)外債危機(jī)下茍延殘喘,但是它到目前為止已經(jīng)避免了最糟糕的狀況-----歐元崩潰,歐元崩潰是一種債務(wù)危機(jī),從希臘和愛爾蘭這樣小的經(jīng)濟(jì)體流竄到意大利和西班牙這樣大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,并且加劇了一些國家的社會(huì)騷亂,這些國家在縮減公共預(yù)算的同時(shí)不得不減少薪資。Amidalltheencouragingnews<oratleasttheabsenceofterribletidings>,GoldmanSachseconomistshaveturnedpracticallygiddy,recentlyupgradingtheir2011global-andU.S.-growthforecasts<to4.8%and3.4%,respectively>.While2010wasthe"YearofDoubt,"2011,theyproclaim,willbethe"YearofRecovery."U.S.economistNourielRoubini,theCassandraofthecrisis,reckonsthatifallgoesrightandnothingterriblegoeswrong,theglobaleconomymightgrownearly4%thisyear.聽到如此多鼓舞人心的消息〔或者至少是沒有很糟糕的消息,高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?guī)缀踝兊幂p率起來,最近他們更新了20XX全球和美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測〔分別是4.8%和3.4%。盡管20XX是"令人懷疑的一年",但是高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們宣稱20XX肯定是經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一年,努里爾?盧比尼----美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,這次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的預(yù)言者,認(rèn)為如果一切都順利,并且沒有更糟糕的事情發(fā)生,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年可能會(huì)增長將近4%。Itmustbesaid:noteveryoneagrees.JimWalker,aneconomistatresearchfirmAsianomicsinHongKong,predictsthat2011willbea"yearofreckoning."ThereboundintheU.S.,Walkersays,isamiragecreatedbyexcessivestimulus.HeexpectstheU.S.toslipintothedoubledipitdodgedin2010.Eventhelessbearishworrythattheglobaleconomyisfarfromhealed.Mosteconomistsexpectthereboundtoflattenoutin2011,withgrowthlikelytobelowerthanin2010.Inmid-January,theWorldBankestimatedglobalGDPgrowthwillslowto3.3%in2011from3.9%in2010.StephenRoach,aneconomistatYaleUniversity,believesthattheworldeconomyisstilldiggingitselfoutofthedebtanddistortionsbuiltupduringthelastboom."It'sareallyslowpostcrisisworkout,"Roachsays."I'mnotpreparedtogivetheglobaleconomythegreenlight."有人肯定會(huì)說：并不是每個(gè)人都同意這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。吉姆?沃克----香港亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)分析咨詢公司的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,預(yù)測20XX將會(huì)是"清算之年"。沃克談到,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的反彈只是由過度刺激形成的海市蜃樓。他認(rèn)為美國將會(huì)落入20XX僥幸躲避過去的"雙底衰退"之中。即使是不那么悲觀的人也擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)沒有恢復(fù)。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)20XX經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈會(huì)逐漸消失,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也可能會(huì)低于20XX。一月中旬,世界銀行估測全球GDP增長將由20XX的3.9%下降到20XX的3.3%。耶魯大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬?羅奇認(rèn)為,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍會(huì)極力從上次經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期產(chǎn)生的債務(wù)和扭曲中脫身。"這真是一次緩慢的后經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)考驗(yàn)。"羅奇說道,"我并不準(zhǔn)備給經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)亮綠燈"。Thecautionisunderstandable.Inthedevelopedworld,unemploymentremainssickeninglyhigh<9.4%intheU.S.,10.1%intheeurozone>.Theprivate-sectordebtcrisisof2008-09hasmorphedintoapublic-sectordebtcrisisin2010-11,aresultofthedebtanddeficitsamassedintheprocessofstimulatingeconomiesandbailingoutbanksduringthedownturn.這種謹(jǐn)慎是可以理解的。在發(fā)達(dá)國家,失業(yè)率仍然很高〔美國是9.4%,歐元區(qū)是10.1%。20XX9月的私營部門債務(wù)危機(jī)到20XX11月已經(jīng)演變?yōu)楣膊块T危機(jī)。這是由經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)和救助銀行時(shí)所累積的債務(wù)和財(cái)政赤字造成的。Politiciansarebeingforcedtoscalebackspendingeventhoughtherecoveryremainsweak.InBritain,deepcutsinthebudgetmandatedbyPrimeMinisterDavidCameronwillmostlikelycosthundredsofthousandsofpublic-sectorjobs.IntheU.S.,themiserableconditionofstateandlocalgovernments'budgetsislikewiseleadingtoajob-killingretrenchment.Europe'simpositionofausterityhasledtoheightenedpoliticalconflict.Ballooningdebtsandfeeblegrowthprospectsfortheadvancedeconomiesarereorderingtheinvestor'sperceptionofrisk.NotingthattheU.S."hasnoplaninplacetostabilizeandultimatelyreversetheupwarddebttrajectory,"Moody'sinmid-Januarywarnedthatthecountry'sAAAcreditratingcouldcomeunderpressureifdebtcontinuestomount;afewdayslater,Moody'supgradedIndonesia'srating.雖然復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程依舊疲緩,政客們?nèi)耘f被迫縮減開支。在英國,首相戴維?卡梅倫大幅消減預(yù)算很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致幾十萬人失業(yè)。在美國,國家和地方政府糟糕的預(yù)算同樣也會(huì)導(dǎo)致工作崗位的緊縮。歐洲采取的財(cái)政緊縮政策也加劇了政治沖突。日漸高磊的債臺(tái)以及發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的疲軟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景讓投資者們開始重新審視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。注意到美國"對于穩(wěn)定和最終扭轉(zhuǎn)不斷向上的債務(wù)曲線是沒有任何適合計(jì)劃的",穆迪于一月中旬發(fā)出警告：如果債務(wù)持續(xù)攀升,國家AAA級(jí)信用評(píng)級(jí)會(huì)面臨被降級(jí)的危險(xiǎn)。幾天之后,穆迪更新了印尼的評(píng)級(jí)。Theemergingeconomiesfacerisksoftheirown.Themostalarmingisasharpriseininflation—aresultofstrongdomesticgrowth,stimuluspolicies,andcommoditypricespumpedupgloballybyreturningdemand,fearsof<oractual>supplyconstraintsandtheloose-moneypoliciesoftheWest.InearlyJanuary,FatihBirol,chiefeconomistattheInternationalEnergyAgency,warnedthatoilprices,nowover$90abarrel,"areenteringadangerouszone"thatcouldthreatentheglobalrecovery.TheU.N.'sFoodandAgricultureOrganizationsaiditsfood-priceindexreachedanall-timehighinDecember,surpassingeventhenosebleedlevelsof2008'ssurge.Suchspikingpricesforthebasicspeopleneedtosurvivearehardenoughtoswallowinthedevelopedworld."Justatthepointyoustarttoseearecoverycoming,yougethitbycommoditypricesthathitpeople'sincomes,"saysStephenKing,chiefeconomistatHSBC.Inemergingmarkets,thefalloutcanbemuchmoresevere.HighfoodpriceshavealreadycontributedtothecollapseofthegovernmentinTunisia.新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體也面臨著自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最緊急的就是通貨膨脹急速加劇----這是強(qiáng)勁的國內(nèi)增長、刺激政策以及全球物價(jià)上漲的結(jié)果,而全球物價(jià)上漲則是由需求重返、實(shí)際供應(yīng)緊張以及西方寬松的貨幣政策導(dǎo)致的。一月初,國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家法提赫?比羅爾發(fā)出警告：現(xiàn)在的石油價(jià)格每桶已經(jīng)超過90美元,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正踏入一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域,可能會(huì)威脅全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織表示,食品價(jià)格指數(shù)在12月份達(dá)到新高,甚至超過了20XX那令人乍舌的高度。在發(fā)達(dá)國家,人們生存必需品價(jià)格如此暴漲,令人非常難以接受。"就在你剛剛看到經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的曙光的時(shí)候,你立馬被沖擊人們收入的物價(jià)敲了當(dāng)頭一棒,"匯豐銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬?金如此說道。在新興市場,其后果可能會(huì)更加嚴(yán)重。高物價(jià)也加劇了突尼斯政府的衰敗。Fearingtheconsequences,policymakersthroughoutthedevelopingworldhaveswitchedprioritiesfromholdingupgrowthtofightinginflation.Inmid-January,Chinaraisedthereserve-requirementratio—whichforcesbankstoparkmoremoneyathomeforeveryloantheymake—toarecordhighinanattempttocurtailcreditandquellinflation,whichroseatthefastestpaceintwoyearsinNovember.InIndia,ragingfoodprices,gallopingaheadbynearly17%fromayearearlier,havebecomesuchasensitiveissuethatwhenPakistantemporarilycutoffsomeexportsofonionstothecountry,itsparkedaminordiplomaticrow.Thesamemeasuresusedtobustinflation,however,willalsodampengrowth.TheWorldBankpredictsslowdownsforroaringChina<from10%growthin2010to8.7%in2011>andIndia<9.5%to8.4%>.由于擔(dān)心造成類似的后果,發(fā)展中國家的決策者決定把優(yōu)先保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長轉(zhuǎn)為優(yōu)先抵抗通貨膨脹。一月中旬,中國將存款準(zhǔn)備金率上調(diào)至歷史新高----強(qiáng)制銀行每放一筆貸款就必須在央行存放更多的儲(chǔ)備金,以期減少放貸、抑制通貨膨脹,通貨膨脹在十一月達(dá)到兩年來新高。在印度,瘋狂的物價(jià)較去年已飛速增長了近17%,這已經(jīng)成為了非常敏感的問題。以致于巴基斯坦在臨時(shí)縮減對印度的洋蔥出口時(shí)引發(fā)了輕微的外交爭執(zhí)。然而,消除通貨膨脹的措施也會(huì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。世界銀行預(yù)測發(fā)展迅速的中國和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會(huì)放緩,因?yàn)橹袊慕?jīng)濟(jì)增長由20XX的10%下降到20XX的8.7%,印度由9.5%下降到8.4%。WasItforThis?這就是為了未來而進(jìn)行的所謂的"合作"嗎？Suchnumbers,ofcourse,arebeyondthedreamsofworkersandconsumersindevelopedeconomies.MillionsfromMichigantoMadridwanttoworkbutcan't—leadingthemtoputcountlesssmalldreamsforthemselvesandtheirfamiliesonhold—sotheriskthattheshiftofeconomicpowerwillbreedpopulistresentmentrises.Manyinthedevelopedworldareonlynowbecomingawarethattheglobe'seconomicfuturewillbedeterminednotjustinLondonorNewYorkCitybutinBeijingandNewDelhitoo."TheproblemthatWesterneconomieshaveisthattheyhaven'trealizedthefulleffectoftheriseoftheemergingworld,"saysHSBC'sKing.當(dāng)然,這樣的數(shù)字是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的工人和消費(fèi)者做夢都不敢想的。從密歇根到馬德里,上百萬的人們想要工作但卻不能----這使他們將自己和家人的無數(shù)小夢想都暫時(shí)擱置----因此,由經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力改變引起的民粹主義不滿情緒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大。發(fā)達(dá)國家的許多人就剛剛才意識(shí)到,未來的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅僅由倫敦或紐約這樣的城市決定,也同樣由北京和新德里這樣的城市決定。"西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體所面臨的問題是：他們沒有意識(shí)到新興世界興起的全面影響,"匯豐銀行主席如是說。Onesuspectstheysoonwill.ThesummitbetweenU.S.PresidentBarackObamaandChinesePresidentHuJintaoinWashingtontookplaceinahighlychargedatmosphere.Chinaistiredofbeinglecturedtobythosewhoseemunabletomanagetheirowneconomiesparticularlywell.U.S.politicians,withaneartotheirconstituents,arelobbyingforprotectivetariffsifChinadoesnotallowitscurrencytoappreciate.U.S.businesses,whichhaveinthepastbeensupportiveoffreetradeandengagementwithChina,arebeginningtosingwithdifferentvoices.LargetechnologyandindustrialcompaniesgrumblethatChina'spursuitof"indigenousinnovation"throughregulatoryandprocurementpoliciesisfreezingthemoutofpotentiallylucrativemarkets.有人猜測聽他們很快就會(huì)意識(shí)到這個(gè)問題。美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克?奧巴馬和中國國家主席胡錦濤在華盛頓舉行峰會(huì),氣氛高度緊張。中國厭倦了被那些連自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)都管理不好的國家討伐。如果中國不允許人民幣升值,愿意聽從選民意見的美國政客們將會(huì)游說保護(hù)性關(guān)稅。而且,那些過去大力支持與中國進(jìn)行自由貿(mào)易和合作的商業(yè)家們也開始唱反調(diào)。IntheU.S.andEurope,acertainhelplessnessinthefaceofhugeeconomicforcesisfuelingadisaffection—whichmakesitselffeltindifferentwaysindifferentsocieties—withtheglobalfinancialelitesandthepolicymakerswhoarethoughttohaveconnivedwiththem.TherewasaparticularlypoignantmomentwhenIreland,whichcherishesitsindependencelikeapreciousjewel,wasforcedtogocapinhandtotheE.U.forabailoutinNovember."Wasitforthis?"TheIrishTimesaskedinafamouseditorialonthehumiliation.Thequestion<thoughfewoutsideDublingotthereference>wasanechoofalinefromW.B.Yeats'greatpoem"September1913,"whichexcoriatedabourgeoiscapitalismwhosemerchants"fumbleinagreasytill/Andaddthehalfpencetothepence/Andprayertoshiveringprayer,until/Youhavedriedthemarrowfromthebone."在美國和歐洲,面對巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力卻無能為力的現(xiàn)象正激起著人們對全球的金融精英以及決策者的不滿,認(rèn)為金融精英與決策者們串通一氣,這種不滿在不同社會(huì)表現(xiàn)形式不同。視獨(dú)立如珍寶的愛爾蘭,11月,為了得到救助,不得不求助于歐盟,這令人感到非常心酸。"這就是愛爾蘭想要的嗎？"愛爾蘭時(shí)報(bào)在關(guān)于屈辱的著名社論中問道。這個(gè)問題〔盡管只有愛爾蘭人才能真正明白其中含義與威廉?巴特勒?葉芝的著名詩作"1913年9月"中的一行詩產(chǎn)生共鳴,它痛斥資產(chǎn)階級(jí)資本主義,因?yàn)樗麄兊纳倘?在滿是油污的錢柜里摸索/一點(diǎn)一點(diǎn)地積攢/不停地禱告直到榨干工人們的最后一滴血。"Howcanadisaffectionwithglobalcapitalisminthedevelopedworldbepreventedfromturningintoabacklashagainstit?Itwouldhelpifthereweremechanismsinplacetomanagethestressesintheinternationaleconomy.Instead,thereissomethingclosetoabreakdowninglobaleconomiccooperation.TheWEF'scloselyreadGlobalRisksreportidentifies"globalgovernancefailures"asanoverarchingriskfacingtheworld."Globalgovernancecapacitiesarehighlyfragmented,"thereportargues."Thereisagrowingsenseofparalysisinrespondingtoglobalchallenges."如何阻止人們對發(fā)達(dá)國家倡導(dǎo)的全球資本主義的不滿演變?yōu)閺?qiáng)烈抵制？如果有適當(dāng)?shù)臋C(jī)制來調(diào)控國際經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力可能會(huì)起作用。而恰恰相反的是,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)合作接近崩潰。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇倍受關(guān)注的全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告指出當(dāng)今世界面臨的首要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是"全球治理失敗"。報(bào)告稱,"全球治理能力高度分散,人們應(yīng)對全球挑戰(zhàn)越來越無力。"Intheeconomicfield,thatisespeciallytrue.TheDoharoundoftradetalks,forexample,isliketheemperor'snewclothesinHansChristianAndersen'sfamoustale:everyoneknowsthere'snothingthere,butnobodywillsayso.Thespiritofcamaraderieforgedintheearlydaysofthefinancialcrisis—allthehopefulmeetingsandoptimisticcommuniquésoftheG-20—hasbeenreplacedbyevery-country-for-itselfthinking.AsnationsscrambletoprotecttheirownpeoplefromthecontinuedfalloutoftheGreatRecession,thethreatofcurrencyandtradewarshasbecomeveryreal.GovernmentsfromTokyotoSantiagohavebeeninterveningincurrencymarkets,imposingmeasurestorestrictcapitalflowsandtakingotherstepstotrytopreventrisingcurrenciesfromdentingexportcompetitiveness."Thecurrencywarisaproxyforajobswar,"saysRoach.Inthemindofeverypolicymakerlooms—atleast,itshould—thedisastrousspiralintoprotectionismthatdeepenedtheDepressioninthe1930s.在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,這種問題更加突出。例如,多哈回合貿(mào)易談判就像安徒生著名的童話故事中皇帝的新裝一樣：每個(gè)人都知道談判不會(huì)有什么結(jié)果,但是沒有人說出來。早期金融危機(jī)鑄就的互助友愛的精神----20國集團(tuán)所有的充滿希望的會(huì)議和振奮人心的公告----都被各國自私利己的想法替代了。由于各國面對日趨嚴(yán)峻的大蕭條境況,都急于保護(hù)本國人民的利益,因此貨幣和貿(mào)易之戰(zhàn)已成為非常現(xiàn)實(shí)的威脅。從東京到圣地亞哥的政府一直都在干預(yù)貨幣市場,采取措施限制資本流動(dòng),并盡力阻止不斷升值的貨幣削弱出口競爭力。"貨幣之戰(zhàn)其實(shí)就是工作崗位之戰(zhàn),"羅奇說道。決策者至少應(yīng)該想到,這種災(zāi)難性的螺旋式保護(hù)主義曾加劇了20世紀(jì)30年代的大蕭條。Yettheunmediatedriftbetweencountries,eachdesperatetopreserv