電氣10k2設(shè)計(jì)-外文翻譯

電力系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展過(guò)渡的評(píng)， 認(rèn)為在制度變遷展開(kāi)的幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域范圍內(nèi)包括環(huán)境科學(xué)動(dòng)力學(xué)，。機(jī)構(gòu)的互動(dòng)研究了在過(guò)去的一個(gè)世紀(jì)內(nèi)的四種不同的制度，以及這些制度檢查力度提出了并展示了行動(dòng)者網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何從可持續(xù)能源運(yùn)動(dòng)開(kāi)始的前一代就比以往任何時(shí)候更能夠支持可再生能源和能源效率的發(fā)展和壯大并可持續(xù)發(fā)展。。：社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)；可持續(xù)性轉(zhuǎn)變；技術(shù)改造；電力系統(tǒng)；能源政策12008年7月，總統(tǒng)做了一個(gè)重要的決定：在未來(lái)十年內(nèi)―直致和負(fù)擔(dān)得起的，人類文明的未來(lái)岌岌可危。31年前，說(shuō)，與20世紀(jì)70年代的能源有同樣的框架的能源系統(tǒng)改造被視為的國(guó)家將在有生，那么可持續(xù)性轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)陔娏ο到y(tǒng)的前景是什么？它被理解為明顯轉(zhuǎn)向系統(tǒng)的再生能源高效轉(zhuǎn)變。即使在目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)的程度變得的愈發(fā)明顯的情況下，潔能源的發(fā)展是該國(guó)現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇計(jì)劃的部分映了重建國(guó)家能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)在的政治話題中會(huì)發(fā)生重大的轉(zhuǎn)變但是大型社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)在轉(zhuǎn)換的過(guò)程中仍術(shù)系統(tǒng)中本出了一種長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)分析并索出上世紀(jì)四種不同制度的特點(diǎn)和短內(nèi)大幅度向設(shè)想的那種可持續(xù)發(fā)展的過(guò)渡轉(zhuǎn)變的可能性如果統(tǒng)在接下來(lái)的十70度中現(xiàn)在能源領(lǐng)域的特點(diǎn)是持續(xù)增加的電力需求幾乎完全依賴化石而在過(guò)1980在，電力和煤炭消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)均超過(guò)70%，而可再生能源僅增長(zhǎng)至總凈發(fā)電的（如圖1所示。幾乎沒(méi)有分析師，這些犀利的突破趨勢(shì)，及大多數(shù)的減緩氣候變化情景的技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，更接近于能源信息管理局的“正常營(yíng)業(yè)。參考的的6.8%，但仍占2006和2030之間增量的四分之一，年收入約為50億“正構(gòu)構(gòu)成并管理電力系統(tǒng)同時(shí)一些表明一個(gè)越來(lái)越有效的可持續(xù)能源網(wǎng)絡(luò)已經(jīng)吸引了新的角色去傳統(tǒng)的能源系統(tǒng)，相對(duì)于在上世紀(jì)70年代有限的成功，在法律、政策和投資決策的廣泛變化正在逐步影響著這個(gè)行業(yè)。圖1：的發(fā)電的趨見(jiàn)解分析告知能源系統(tǒng)由于經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)獨(dú)特的熱力作用從而成為人類與環(huán)境關(guān)。雖然不是在這研究中大家唯一感的，但已收到相當(dāng)大的關(guān)注。這項(xiàng)工作致力于研究歐洲動(dòng)態(tài)電力系統(tǒng)，從社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)的角度來(lái)看，雖然看到電力行業(yè)發(fā)生的重析了可持續(xù)發(fā)展本文通過(guò)本研究包括休斯考慮電氣早期演化系統(tǒng)中介紹的90制度的兩個(gè)主要變化強(qiáng)調(diào)精英群體在行業(yè)發(fā)展的巨大作用雖然利用這些資源的理論和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，但在在1935年至1978年期間，他們像正弦＆的用處很大的賬也沒(méi)有考慮到最近的，重大的工業(yè)和能源環(huán)境景觀的變化也延伸了社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)的文獻(xiàn)，重點(diǎn)是從過(guò)去的制度變遷中吸取到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)，而也要關(guān)注未來(lái)變化。，在下一節(jié)中的理論將會(huì)闡明的分析。剩余的部分提出了一個(gè)在美國(guó)的電力系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的實(shí)證分析，在理論部分圍繞幾大，包括環(huán)境科學(xué)部，公民社會(huì)，，國(guó)家行動(dòng)和機(jī)構(gòu)，以及它們都是由相關(guān)的資本和技術(shù)的發(fā)展變化決定的，的結(jié)論是突出的關(guān)鍵性分析本研究以行業(yè)的變化和最近的研究電力部門的90傳工作，它涉及了50個(gè)訪談和來(lái)術(shù)界，工業(yè)，公用事業(yè)，倡導(dǎo)團(tuán)體的線人，以及等具有廣泛性的焦點(diǎn)小組。然而此處所有的信息均來(lái)自公開(kāi)可用的記錄2不同的分析的重點(diǎn)放在市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)，政策的結(jié)果，或企業(yè)的行為上，在對(duì)社會(huì)多樣性。該方法的是概念，大型技術(shù)系統(tǒng)是由一個(gè)復(fù)雜的社會(huì)動(dòng)態(tài)配置，包括法AssessingSustainabilityTransitionintheUSElectricalPowerSystemSustainability2010,2,551-575;:10.3390/su2020551ScottJiustoandStephenMcCauley:ThisprexaminessustainabilitytransitiondynamicsintheUSelectricitysystem,drawingonthesocio-technicalsystemsapproach.Weviewsystemchangeasunfoldingalongseveralcriticaldimensionsandgeographicalscales,includingdynamicsintheenvironment,science,civilsociety,discourse,andstateregulatoryinstitutions,aswellasincapitalandtechnologyformations.Aparticularemphasisisgiventotheinteractionofdiscourses,policynetworks,andinstitutions.Wetracefourdistinctregimeswhichhavecharacterizedtheevolutionofthisdiscourse-network-institutionalnexusoverthelastcentury.Theresearchexaminesdynamicsthatpresentachallengetotheincumbentenergyregimebasedonfossilfuels,nuclearandhydropower,anddemonstrateshowtheactor-networksupportingrenewablesandenergyefficiencyhasgrownstrongerandmorecapableofmovingtowardasustainabilitytransitionthanatanytimesincethesustainableenergymovementbeganagenerationago.Keywords:socio-technicalsystems;sustainabilitytransition;technologicalchange;electricitysystems;energypolicyInJulyof2008,formerVice-AlGoremadeaprominentandprovocativecallfortheUSto“committoproducing100percentofourelectricityfromrenewableenergyandtrulycleancarbon-freesourceswithin10years",claimingthatthegoalwasachievableandaffordableandthat“thefutureofhumancivilizationisatstake".Some31yearsearlier.JimmyCarter,speakingfromtheenergycrisisofthe1970s,hadsimilarlyframedenergysystemtransformationas“thegreatestchallengeourcountrywillfaceduringourlifetimes",yetonethat“wewillnotsolveinthenextfewyears，[instead]itislikelytoprogressivelyworsethroughtherestofthiscentury".Subsequentdevelopments-geopolitical,economicandclimate-related-haveproventhislaststatementprescient.Whatthenaretheprospectsfora“sustainabilitytransition"intheUSelectricitysystem.understoodasarestructuringthatsignificantlysteersthissystem,whichpresentlyaccountsforapproximay40%ofbothprimaryenergyuseandgreenhousegasemissions,towardafarmorerenewableandenergyefficienttrajectory?Evenbeforetheextentofthecurrenteconomicdownturnbecameobvious,theObamaadministrationtookofficeonaplatformcallingforinvestmentingreenenergytechnologiestopromoteeconomicgrowthandaddressclimateconcerns.Cleanenergydevelopmentnowformsacentralpartofthecountry'seconomicrecoveryplan,reflectingthebeliefthatamajorrebuildingofthecountry'senergyinfrastructureisrequiredandthatthescopeofsuchaneffortwouldgeneratesignificanteconomicactivity.WhilethesedevelopmentsrepresentamajorshiftinthepoliticaldiscourseintheUnitedStates.theprocessoftransitionsinlargesocio-technicalsystemsremainscomplex,fraughtwithcompetinginterests,andheavilydependentonhistoricalcontingencies.Thisprpresentsalong-termysisofdynamicsinthiscriticalsocio-technicalsystem,exploringfordistinctregimesthathavecharacterizedthesystemoverthelastcenturyandthathaveconditionedthelikelihoodofasubstantialnear-termshifttowardthesustainabilitytransitionGoreenvisions.Shouldthesystemmovesubstantiallyinthisdirectioninthenextdecade,tesisofthistransitionwouldlieinabroadrangeofsocial.environmentalandtechnicalprocessesthatrepresentbothcontinuityanddisjuncturewiththesehistoricregimesandwiththegenerationofsustainableenergyinnovationinitiatedinthe1970s.Agrowingbodyofresearchonsustainabilitytransitionsemphasizesthatshiftsinsocio-technicalsystemsoftenembodyafundamentalruptureincriticalprocessesundergirdinganincumbentsocio-technicalregime.Thisincumbentregimeintheenergysector,characterizedbypersistentlyincreasingelectricitydemandandalmostcompleterelianceonfossilfuel.nuclearandlargehydropowergeneratingplants,hasshowngreatresiliencyoverthepasthalfcentury.Since1980,electricityandcoalconsumptionintheUShavebothincreasedover70%,whilerenewableshavegrowntojust2.4%oftotalnetgeneration(FigureI).Fewystspredictasharpbreakwiththesetrends,andtechnicalandeconomicysesofclimatechangemitigationembracescenariosfarclosertotheEnergyInformationAdministration's"businessasusual"referencecasescenariothatshowselectricityconsumptionandcarbonemissionsincreasingmoreslowlythanpreviously,butstillbyoverone-quarterbetween2006and2030,whilerenewablesincreasetojust6.8%ofnetgeneration.Withannualrevenuesofsome$500billion,"businessasusual"intheelectricalpowerindustryenjoysthesupportofpowerfulsocial.financialandpoliticalinterestsreinforcedthroughpublicandprivateinstitutionsthatconstituteandmanagetheelectricitysystem.Atthesametime,weshowbelowthatanincreasinglyeffectivesustainableenergyactor-networkhasgrownandattractednewactorstochallengeconventionalenergysystemsand,relativetotheirlimitedsuccessesinthe1970s,isnowachievingmorebroad-basedchangesinthelaws,policies,andinvestmentdecisionsaffectingthisindustry.Figure1.Trendsinelectricity-generatingfuelsintheUS(dataPartandparceloftheseenergysectordevelopmentsareevolving,competingtheoriesofhowchangeinthesesystemscan(andshould)occur.Academicsnolessthanothersdebatingthecostsandconsequencesofclimatechangeoperatefromcomplexsetsofdisciplinaryandindividualcommitmentsandsthatareonlypartiallybridgeablethroughrecoursetoempiricalevidence.Keyinsightsinformingourysisare:energysystemsarecentraltohuman-environmentrelationsduetotheiruniquethermodynamicroleineconomicandecologicalsystems;thatverysubstantialandimmediatechangestowardlow-carbonenergysystemsarerequiredtomitigateclimatechange;thatwhiletheresourcebaseoffossilfuelsisofdiminishingquality,theflowofrenewableenergyresources-wind,sun,tidalflows,geothermal,etc.-vastlyexceedshumandemand;thatlarge"nonetcost"energyefficiencyandcarbonemissionsimprovementsareavailablethroughimprovedpolicymeasuresandconcerted,thoughnotheroic,effort;andthatsustainedpolicydeliberationwillbenecessarybuthardlysufficienttorealizethepotentialforarenewablesandefficiencytransition.Theysishereincludes,butextendsbeyond,questionsofpriceandtechnicalefficiencytoexplorehowprocessesofinnovationandsystemchangeunfoldthroughcomplexsocial,environmental,andtechnologicalWesituateourworkinrelationshiptotheliteraturesonsocio-technicalsystems,policynetworksanddiscourses,andsustainabilitytransitions.Asithas emoreevidentthatradicalrestructuringofcriticalsocietalsystemsisrequiredtoachievesustainability,researchoninnovationandsocio-technicalsystemchangehasfocusedonsteeringsystemstowardmoresustainableconfigurations.Energysystems,thoughnottheonlysystemsofinterestinthisresearch,havereceivedconsiderableattention.MuchofthisworkexaminesdynamicsinEuropeanelectricitysystems,assurprisinglylittleresearchhasyzedfromasocio-technicalsystemsthemajorshiftsthathaveoccurredintheUSelectricitysectorandtheirpotentialimpactsonasystem-levelsustainabilitytransition.EssentialliteratureinformingthisstudyincludesHughes'accountoftheearlyevolutionoftheUSelectricalsystemthatintroducedcoreconceptsthatcontinuetosh transmissionlinesandthelike-apanoplyofsocialactors,includinginventers,entrepreneurs,financiers,politicians,andothersdrivingsystemevolutionthrougha"seamlessweb"ofeconomic,political,institutionalandtechnicalprocesses.Hirshcarriesthestoryforwardtothelate1990s,throughtwomajorchangesintheinstitutional andemphasizingmoretheroleofelitegroupsin theindustry'sWhilewedrawonthesesourcestheoreticallyandempiricallythey,likeSine&David'susefulaccountoftheeffectofinstitutionalchangeonelectricalsectorentrepreneurialactivityduring1935-1978,donotforefrontintheirysesimplicationsforsustainability,nortakeintoaccountmorerecent,largechangesintheindustryandenergy-environmentlandsc.Wealsoextendthesocio-technicalsystemsliterature,whichgenerallyfocusesonlessonsfrompastsystemchanges,whereasourquestion,whilehistoricallygrounded,alsoconcernsprospectsforfuturechange.Finally,theworkcontributestoagrowingbodyofworkwhichcenterstheconceptofdiscourseformationintheysisofsocio-technicalsystemchange.Inthenextsection,wediscusstheoryinformingourysis.TheremainingsectionspresentanempiricalysisofdevelopmentsintheUSelectricitysystem,anizedaroundmajorthemesidentifiedinthetheorysection,includingsectionsonenvironmentandscience;civilsociety;discourse,stateactionandinstitutions;andalookatchangesinrelatedcapitalandtechnologydevelopmentdecisions.Weconcludebyhighlightingkeythemesrevealedintheysis.Theresearchisbaseduponysisofsecondarysources,includingpreviousstudiesofsectoralchangeandreportsofrecenectricalsectorinnovationinvestments.Theleadauthorparticipatedinastudyofsustainableenergyadvocacyeffortsinthe1990sthatinvolved50interviewsandafocusgroupwithawiderangeofinformantsfromacademia,industry,utilities,advocacygrou