宏觀經(jīng)濟學-通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論-課件

1、六、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT六、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論INFLATION AND UNEM通貨膨脹定義與危害通貨膨脹是指商品和生產(chǎn)要素價格普遍和持續(xù)的上漲。持續(xù)的通貨膨脹會破壞價格機制，使生產(chǎn)者和消費者作出錯誤決策，導致資源配置浪費。通貨膨脹使貨幣貶值，動搖人們對貨幣的信心。不利于本國出口，不利于國際收支平衡。不利于儲蓄者，不利于貸款者。通貨膨脹定義與危害通貨膨脹是指商品和生產(chǎn)要素價格普遍和持續(xù)的Inflation: Its Causes and Costs通貨膨脹：原因與成本Inflation is an increase in the overal

2、l price level.通貨膨脹是價格水平的整體上升 It is a continuous increase （持續(xù)上升）versus a once-and-for-all increase in prices. Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices（平均水平）and not just significant increases in the price of a few goods.Inflation: Its Causes and CostThe Causes of InflationInflation i

3、s an economy-wide monetary phenomenon（貨幣現(xiàn)象）that concerns, first and foremost, the value of the economys medium of exchange.The Causes of InflationInflatiThe Causes of InflationTo understand the causes of inflation we must understand the concepts of money supply, money demand, and monetary equilibriu

4、m（貨幣均衡）.The Causes of InflationTo undeIn the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.Money Supply and Money DemandIn the long run, the overall lMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(

5、Low)1/21/43/411.3324Money Supply and Money DemandQMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice

6、LevelMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324MoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQMoney Supply an

7、d Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney supply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumvalue of moneyMoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQMoney Supply and Money DemandQuantity fixedby the FedQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelAMoney sup

8、ply01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumprice levelEquilibriumvalue of moneyMoneydemandMoney Supply and Money DemandQThe Effects of Monetary Injection貨幣注入效應Suppose the Fed injects money into the economy by buying government bonds. The supply of money curve shifts to the right. The equi

9、librium value of money decreases. The equilibrium price level increases.The Effects of Monetary InjectThe Effects of MonetaryInjectionThe Effects of MonetaryInjectThe Effects of MonetaryInjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice Level01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324The Effects of MonetaryIn

10、jectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effects of Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1The Effe

11、cts of Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS11. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelMoneydemand

12、01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS21. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of

13、 Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .1. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectThe Effects of Monetary InjectionQuantity ofMoney

14、Value ofMoneyPrice LevelABMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M1MS22. .decreases the value of money .3. andincreasesthe pricelevel.1. An increase in the money supply.The Effects of Monetary InjectHyperinflation惡性通貨膨脹Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. H

15、yperinflation惡性通貨膨脹HyperinflaHyperinflationHyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending.HyperinflationHyperinflation oHyperinflationNote the relationship between the growth rate of the quantity of money and the price level.Hyperinflatio

16、nNote the relatioHyperinflationHungary匈牙利Money supply19251924192319221921Price level100,00010,0001,000100Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)Austria奧地利Price level100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money supplyIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)HyperinflationHungary匈牙利Money HyperinflationGermany德國1100 trillion1 million

17、10 billion1 trillion100 million10,00010019251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupplyPoland波蘭MoneysupplyPrice levelIndex (Jan. 1921 = 100)10010 million100,0001 million10,0001,00019251924192319221921Index (Jan. 1921 = 100)HyperinflationGermany德國1100 trHyperinflation and Inflation Tax通貨膨脹稅When the govern

18、ment raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.Hyperinflation and Inflation Hyperinflation and Inflation TaxThe inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms（財政改革） such as cuts in government spendi

19、ng（削減政府開支）.Hyperinflation and Inflation The Fisher Effect費雪效應According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate（名義利率）rises by the same amount.The real interest rate（實際利率） stays the same.The Fisher Effect費雪效應AccordingThe Fisher EffectAccording to the Fisher ef

20、fect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount.The real interest rate stays the same.The Fisher EffectAccording to The Fisher EffectWhen the Fed increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest ra

21、te.The Fisher EffectWhen the Fed 需求拉上型通貨膨脹ASPAD0YAD1AD2AD3AD4P1P2P3P4Y1Y2Y3需求拉上型通貨膨脹ASPAD0YAD1AD2AD3AD4P1成本推進型通貨膨脹ASPYAS1ADP1P2Y1Y2AS2成本推進型通貨膨脹ASPYAS1ADP1P2Y1Y2AS2The Costs of InflationShoeleather costs（皮鞋成本）Menu costs（菜單成本）Relative price variability（相對價格變動）Tax distortions（稅收扭曲）Confusion and inconve

22、nience（混亂與不方便）Arbitrary redistribution of wealth（任意的財富再分配）The Costs of InflationShoeleatShoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.Shoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）ShoeleaShoeleather CostsInflation reduces the real value of

23、 money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.Shoeleather CostsInflation redShoeleather CostsLess cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.Shoeleather CostsLess cash reqShoeleather CostsExtra trips to the bank take time away

24、 from productive activities.Shoeleather CostsExtra trips tMenu Costs（菜單成本）Menu costs are the costs of changing prices.Menu Costs（菜單成本）Menu costs areMenu CostsDuring inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists（更新價格目錄） and other posted prices.Menu CostsDuring inflationary Menu CostsThis

25、is a resource-consuming process（資源消耗過程） that takes away from other productive activities.Menu CostsThis is a resource-cRelative-Price Variability（相對價格變動）Inflation distorts relative prices（通貨膨脹扭曲了相對價格）. Consumer decisions are distorted（消費者決策也被扭曲）, and markets are less able to allocate resources to th

26、eir best use.Relative-Price Variability（相對價Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion（通貨膨脹引起的稅收扭曲）Inflation exaggerates（夸大） the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden（增加稅收負擔） on this type of income. With progressive taxation（累進稅）, capital gains are taxed more heavily.Inflation-Induced Tax Distorti

27、Inflation-Induced Tax DistortionThe income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income,（所得稅把名義利率作為儲蓄所賺得的收入進行征稅） even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation（部分名義利率僅夠補償通貨膨脹造成的損失）. The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.（

28、稅后實際利率下降，導致儲蓄失去吸引力）Inflation-Induced Tax DistortiConfusion and Inconvenience（混亂與不方便）With rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.物價上漲使人們對不同時期的收入、成本和利潤難以進行比較。Confusion and Inconvenience（混亂Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth（任意的財富再分配）Unanticipated infl

29、ation redistributes wealth between debtors and creditors.不可預期的通貨膨脹會造成債務人和債權人之間的財富再分配。This may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.Arbitrary Redistribution of We失業(yè)概念和分類失業(yè)是指有勞動能力并愿意就業(yè)的勞動者找不到工作。失業(yè)可分為三種狀況：磨擦性失業(yè)，是指因工作變動過程為尋找工作轉換而產(chǎn)生的失業(yè)，它被看作是一種求職性失業(yè)。結構性失業(yè)，是指因經(jīng)濟結構的變化，產(chǎn)業(yè)興衰轉移造成的失

30、業(yè)。周期性失業(yè)，是指經(jīng)濟周期性衰退所造成的失業(yè)。失業(yè)概念和分類失業(yè)是指有勞動能力并愿意就業(yè)的勞動者找不到工作Natural Rate of Unemployment自然失業(yè)率The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.Natural Rate of Unemployment自自然失業(yè)率自然失業(yè)率

31、是指在充分就業(yè)條件下的失業(yè)率，主要是指磨擦性失業(yè)和結構性失業(yè)。二戰(zhàn)以來，自然失業(yè)率不斷上升，其原因是：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整速度加快，這是科技進步的結果。失業(yè)救濟金不斷增加，不少國家失業(yè)與就業(yè)之間的效用差別越來越小。最低工資不斷上升，往往高于市場出清水平。勞動供給結構變化，婦女就業(yè)率提高。自然失業(yè)率自然失業(yè)率是指在充分就業(yè)條件下的失業(yè)率，主要是指磨Cyclical Unemployment周期性失業(yè)Cyclical unemployment refers to the fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.圍繞著自然失業(yè)率的波動It i

32、s associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle（商業(yè)周期）.Cyclical Unemployment周期性失業(yè)CycMeasuring Unemployment失業(yè)統(tǒng)計Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)美國勞動統(tǒng)計局. It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.Measuring Unemployment失業(yè)統(tǒng)計UneMeasurin

33、g UnemploymentThe BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.Measuring UnemploymentThe BLS Measuring UnemploymentA person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.Measuring UnemploymentA personMeasuring UnemploymentA person

34、is considered unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, looking for a job, or waiting for the start date of a new job.Measuring UnemploymentA personMeasuring UnemploymentA person in none of these categories is not in the labor force. Measuring UnemploymentA personMeasuring UnemploymentThe labo

35、r force（勞動力） is the total number of workers, which includes both the number employed plus the number unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentThe laboMeasuring UnemploymentThe labor-force participation rate （勞動力參工率）is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.Measuring UnemploymentTh

36、e laboMeasuring UnemploymentThe unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentThe unemMeasuring UnemploymentThe unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.Measuring UnemploymentThe unem奧肯定律失業(yè)

37、意味著愿意就業(yè)的勞動力資源沒有得到充分的利用，從而會使實際產(chǎn)出增長率低于充分就業(yè)時的產(chǎn)出增長率。美國經(jīng)濟學家奧肯(Arthur M. Okun)根據(jù)美國歷年的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)：實際產(chǎn)出增長率每低于潛在產(chǎn)出增長率3個百分點，就會引起失業(yè)率上升1個百分點。奧肯定律描繪了產(chǎn)出增長率與失業(yè)率之間的關系。奧肯定律表明，要保持失業(yè)率不變，實際產(chǎn)出增長率與潛在產(chǎn)出增長率之間的缺口不能擴大。奧肯定律失業(yè)意味著愿意就業(yè)的勞動力資源沒有得到充分的利用，從Why is there unemployment?In an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance t

38、he supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed（充分就業(yè)）.Why is there unemployment?In aWhy the Ideal Is MissedMinimum-wage laws最低工資法Unions工會Efficiency wages效率工資Job search職業(yè)搜尋Why the Ideal Is MissedMinimumMinimum-Wage LawsWhen the minimum wage is set above the level tha

39、t balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.Minimum-Wage LawsWhen the miniMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0WageMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of LMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of Labor0LabordemandWage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsQuantity of LMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWage

40、LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity ofMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wage LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity ofMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWageMinimum wageLDLS LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity ofMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity of LaborLE0

41、Surplus of labor = UnemploymentLabordemandWageMinimum wageLDLS LaborsupplyMinimum-Wage LawsWEQuantity ofUnions and Collective Bargaining工會和集體談判A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. A union is a type of cartel.工會是一種典型的卡特爾Unions and Collective

42、BargainiUnions and Collective BargainingThe process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining（集體談判）.Unions and Collective BargainiUnions and Collective BargainingA strike （罷工）will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.Unions

43、 and Collective BargainiUnions and Collective BargainingA strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.罷工會使有些工人更好，而另一些工人更壞。Workers in unions reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers not in the union bear some of the costs.Unions and Collective BargainiUnions and

44、Collective BargainingBy acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members.Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers.Unions and Collective BargainiAre unions good or bad for the

45、economy?工會對經(jīng)濟是利是弊Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.批評者認為工會使勞動力配置失效和不公平 Wages above the competitive level競爭水平 reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers.Are unions good or b

46、ad for theAre unions good or bad for the economy?Advocates（擁護者） of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote（矯正） to the market power of firms that hire workers.They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.Are unions good or bad for the長期合同理

47、論由于工會的存在，勞資雙方談判成本較高，所以一般都傾向于簽訂長期合同。在合同期內(nèi)，名義工資一般固定不變。也就是說，在長期合同中，雇員的名義工資是剛性的。如果合同期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退，這時雇主不能通過降低工資來擴大勞動力需求，這就使勞動力市場處于非出清狀態(tài)，造成部分失業(yè)。長期合同理論由于工會的存在，勞資雙方談判成本較高，所以一般都內(nèi)部人-外部人理論內(nèi)部人是指那些已在企業(yè)工作的人，外部人是指那些想到企業(yè)工作的人。內(nèi)部人在工資決定上有討價還價的能力，這是因為企業(yè)要調(diào)換內(nèi)部人和雇傭外部人是要花費成本的，這些成本包括：根據(jù)合同條款，解雇內(nèi)部人需作出補償；解雇內(nèi)部人會引起其他內(nèi)部人的不滿；雇傭外部人需花費更多

48、的培訓費用等。內(nèi)部人會團結起來，排擠外部人，這樣就可以使內(nèi)部人將工資穩(wěn)定在高于市場出清的水平。內(nèi)部人-外部人理論內(nèi)部人是指那些已在企業(yè)工作的人，外部人是指效率工資理論為刺激員工的高效率，雇主會主動把工資維持在一個高于勞動力市場出清的水平，這是因為：高工資會增加員工怠工偷懶的機會成本；高工資可以吸引優(yōu)秀人才；高工資可以減少員工變換工作的行為；高工資可以讓員工心態(tài)平衡；高工資可以減少員工聯(lián)合的動機。高于市場出清的高工資，會導致勞動力市場總是存在著過剩的勞動供給，失業(yè)也會持續(xù)存在。效率工資理論為刺激員工的高效率，雇主會主動把工資維持在一個高Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工資

49、理論Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工Theory of Efficiency WagesA firm may prefer higher th

50、an equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Health工人健康: Better paid workers eat better and thus are more productive. Worker Turnover工人流動率: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.Theory of Efficiency WagesA fiTheory of Efficiency WagesA firm may prefer higher than equi

51、librium wages for the following reasons: Worker Effort工人努力程度: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort. Worker Quality工人素質(zhì): Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs.Theory of Efficiency WagesA fi二元勞動力市場理論我們可以把勞動力市場劃分為第一市場和第二市場。第一市場工資較高，勞動條件較好，工作崗位有保障，職業(yè)前景

52、較好。第二市場工資較低，工作條件差，工作具有不穩(wěn)定性和暫時性。這兩個勞動力市場的求職者一般不會相互流動，這是因為第一市場的求職者不愿光顧第二市場；而第二市場的求職者無法進入第一市場。如果出現(xiàn)周期性失業(yè)，第一市場的失業(yè)率要明顯低于第二市場，因為第一市場更多地受到制度的保護。二元勞動力市場理論我們可以把勞動力市場劃分為第一市場和第二市Unemployment and Inflation失業(yè)與通貨膨脹 The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market. Examples include m

53、inimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, and the role of efficiency wages.Unemployment and Inflation失業(yè)與Unemployment and Inflation The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.Unemployment and Inflation TheThe Phillips Curve菲利浦斯曲線Society faces a

54、short-run tradeoff（交替） between unemployment and inflation. If policymakers expand擴張 aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation. If they contract收縮 aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.The Phillips

55、Curve菲利浦斯曲線SocietThe Phillips CurveThe Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.The Phillips CurveThe PhillipsAggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips CurveThe Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations結合 of unemployment and inflation that aris