美國卡車經(jīng)紀(jì)：App分析顯示規(guī)模是驅(qū)動程序電話戰(zhàn)的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素

1、GlobalResearch8 April 2019U.S. Truck BrokerageUBS Evidence Lab inside: App Analysis Shows ScaleIsAKeyFactorInTheDriverPhoneBattleBrokers, tech facilitators & new brokers all compete for the drivers phoneThis is our second report in which we analyze UBS Evidence Lab monthly app downloadsdata HYPERLIN

2、K /shared/d2HFG8Udjlvwf (thefirstwasinJune2018)andinthisanalysiswehavecastabroader net which includes several of the significant technology companies in addition to conventionalbrokers,appfocused/newbrokers,andloadboards. Webelievethatall oftheseplayerscompeteforspaceonthedriversmobilephone. Thisana

3、lysisprovides insightoncompetitionamongbrokerstoaccesscapacitywithowneroperators.MacroPoint & Uber Freight lead but CHRW & JBHT also have a clear presence Analysis of over 21 different carrier focused Apps shows that MacroPoint has consistently had a leading share of downloads (20% in 2019TD) while

4、Uber Freight hasthenextlargestshareat15%in2019TDandeachofthepasttwoyears.Itisclear thatscalemattersasCHRWhashadasignificantpresence(5%-11%share)overthe past4yearswhileJBHTandTQLhaveincreasedtheirpositionoverthepastyear(4%- 6% share). Technology player Trucker Tools, tech broker Convoy, and the domin

5、ant loadboardsTandDATallhavemeaningfulshare(57%)ofdownloads.App downloads are most relevant for owner operator capacityWebelieveabrokerscommunicationw/evenrelativelysmallcarriersismorelikelyvia other channels (phone, portal, email, files). But for owner operators (1 3 trucks) the Appcanactasanimport

6、antmechanismofcommunicationandawayforthebrokerto efficiently access capacity. For new tech focused players (Uber Frt., Convoy) the app downloads(+recurringusage)maybemoreimportantforaccessingcapacity.Scale provides value for CHRW; but the competitive set is also growingWhileourreportshowsthenewtechf

7、ocusedplayershavetractionwiththeirApps,we believeitalsoshowsthatloadboardsandtechnologyfacilitators(MacroPoint,Trucker Tools,FourKites)areplayingakeyroleinconnectingcapacity. Wecontinuetobelieve thatscaleremainsasourceofadvantageforCHRW,butalsoTQL,Coyote,andJBHT.Transportation ServicesAmericasEquiti

8、esThomasWadewitzTransportation ServicesAmericasEquities HYPERLINK mailto:thomas.wadewitz +1-212-7136116Alex Johnson HYPERLINK mailto:alex.johnson +1-212-7134309Michael AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:michael.triano +1-212-7133822Figure1:Shr.ofDownloadsTypeFigure2:Shr.ofDownloadsBrokers&LoadBoards1

9、00%Total Shr., RankService2018YTD1980%1Uber Freight21%23%60%2Truckloads13%12%40%3DAT Load Board12%10%20%4Convoy; J.B Hunt8%; 11%9%0%Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Truck Broker w/AppApp-Based Truck BrokerLoad BoardNote: Aggregate of iOS and Google Play Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor TowerTruckstop; 123 Lo

10、adboard;TQLCarrier7%; 7%; 6%7%NavisphereCarrier7%6%Note: Aggregate of iOS and Google Play Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 16. UBS

11、does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investmen

12、t decision.Background Why Apps and Downloads MatterThe connection between brokers and trucking companies occurs through a number of different mechanisms. Conventional connections are by phone, fax, email,spreadsheetsandinsomecaseswithlargercarriersEDI(thiswouldbemore commonwithlargeshippers). Newcon

13、nectionmechanismsincludeApps,portals, and APIs. Apps are significant because they provide a connection with the individual trucker which facilitates the flow of information in both directions. If a driver has the brokers app it will provide real time visibility to the location of the loadthedriveris

14、handling. Andifthedriveristheonebookinghis/herloadsthen the app may provide an important mechanism to find loads. The app may also facilitateforwardvisibilitytowhereandwhencapacitywillbecomeavailablewhich is helpful for a broker in booking future loads.We note that the App is one of multiple channel

15、s for a broker to connect with trucking capacity and it is most relevant for owner operator / very small carriers with only a couple of trucks. While an App connection with drivers in a larger trucking company is still useful for visibility / track and trace, this connection is unlikely to play a ro

16、le in booking loads. For a trucking company with more than a few trucks the load booking function is likely done by someone in an office through a computer and phone and not likely an App. In this report, we utilize UBS Evidence Lab monthly app downloads data to analyze the presence and connection b

17、etween small carriers and conventional truck brokers, load boards, logisticstechnologycompanies,andnewapp/techfocusedbrokers. Followingare key takeaways from the analysis.Key TakeawaysScale matters as only the largest brokers have traction on downloads Our analysisofAppdownloadsfrom2015through2019TD

18、clearlyshowsthatscaleis a significant factor for brokers in terms of realizing traction in downloads of their carrier Apps. The largest conventional brokers including CH Robinson, TQLand CoyoteallhaveameaningfulpresenceintheAppdownloadlandscapeacrossthe timeframeofouranalysis. Althoughtheyarealargeb

19、roker,Echoappearstohave limitedtractioninAppdownloadswhilemid-sizedbrokerAllenLundalsodoesnot show a meaningful share of downloads. App downloads for these two names mayreflectdifferentstrategiesthatemphasizeusingtechnologyintermediariesto provideappconnectivitywithtruckersasopposedtofocusingontheir

20、ownapp.Technology providers MacroPoint & Trucker Tools also have a strong connection through their App MacroPoint has the highest or second highest share (13% - 20%) of App downloads among our analysis group in each of the pastfouryearswhileanothertechnologyplayerTruckerToolsalsorealizesstrong tract

21、ion with 6% - 17% share over this timeframe. MacroPoint is best known for itstrackandtracefunctionalitywhileTruckerToolshelpsbrokersimprovevisibility and provides a stronger connection with carriers. We believe that these technologyplayerssyntheticallyprovidesomeofthebenefitsofscaletomid-sized broke

22、rs and they enable these brokers to be strongercompetitors.Uber Freight & Convoy show significant traction with their Apps In 2017, 2018, and 2019TD Uber Freight and Convoy show significant traction in App downloadswithUberFreightconsistentlyat15%shareofdownloadsandConvoy in the 4% - 6% range. This

23、indicates a growing connection between these two app / tech focused brokers and owner operators / small carriers. We believethatUberFreightandConvoyhaveplacedgreateremphasisonsourcingcapacityfrom the owner operator / small carrier part of the market compared to conventional truck brokers. Because th

24、e truckload market is so highly fragmented it is difficult toclearlycharacterizethebucketsofcapacityinthemarket. Largecarrierstypically have a portion of their capacity that is from owner operators who only work with them. We estimate that independent owner operators may account for in the ballpark

25、of 10% of industry capacity.CHRW, MacroPoint, Trucker Tools, Truckstop & TQL Have Had a Consistent Presence Across the analysis period (2015 2019TD) several brokers and technology players / load boards have had a consistent presence in terms of the share of App downloads. While we cannot measure use

26、 of an app, we believe that considering the app downloads over a multi-year basis provides a good framework for considering which companies have a significant presence on the driversmobilephone.MacroPoint,CHRW,TruckerTools,TandTQL haveallshowntractionacrosstheanalysisperiodwhichindicatestheylikelyha

27、vea broad based presence with carriers anddrivers.While JBHT, DAT, and Four Kites (Carrier Link) Have Gained Traction Over thePastTwoYearsJBHunt,DATandFourKites(CarrierLink)showedlimited traction with app downloads in the 2015 / 2016 period but they have realized a stronger share in the range of 3%

28、- 9% of downloads in the past two years. While JB Hunt and DAT would offer load booking functionality and visibility we believetheCarrierLinkappwouldbeutilizedmoreforvisibilityandtrack&trace. WealsonotethatdownloadsofCarrierLinkmaybemoreshipperdriven.What does it mean for CHRW and ECHO?Wecontinuetob

29、elievethatCHRWslargescaleprovidessignificantadvantagein terms of both freight volume running through their systems and broad based access to capacity. The app analysis shows that CHRW and other large brokers (TQL, Coyote) have a presence with carriers through this channel of information andcommunica

30、tion. Theanalysisalsoshowsthattechnologyplayers(MacroPoint, Trucker Tools, Four Kites) and load boards (DAT, T) also play a significant role in the brokerage industry. We believe that load boards are critical for small and mid-sized brokers while the technology facilitators likely provide a boost to

31、 mid-sized brokers. As we would expect, the app analysis indicates that Uber Freight and Convoy both have a growing presence but app downloads do notprovideaclearindicationiftheyhavethescaleyettobroadlychallengeCHRW and other large conventional brokers (TQL, Coyote,JBHT).Wecontinuetohaveapositivevie

32、wonCHRWstockaswebelievethatlowerspot rates y/y support gross margin expansion in NAST and solid net revenue growth while operating expense performance is likely to be better than expected against an easy comparison in 2018 when equity incentive comp more than doubledand cash incentive comp was also

33、upsignificantly.With respect to ECHO, we believe it has the scale to invest in technology and competewiththeconventionalbrokersandnewplayers. Cyclicalfactorsarelikely notasfavorableforECHO(comparedtoCHRW)becauseithaslessexposureto contract business and the resulting stability in rates / revenue. Nev

34、ertheless, we expect ECHO to benefit from favorable gross margin performance in the current environmentandanoperatingexpensetailwindfromlowerincentivecomp.Brokerage Industry Market Structure and TechnologyCH Robinson has long been the largest truck broker with an unmatched network ofoffices(110broke

35、ragefocusedintheUS)andpersonnelwhoprovideadiverse mixofcustomersacrossverticalsandshippersizeandenviableaccesstocapacity through connections to small, mid and large trucking companies. Over time CHRWhasexpandeditsreachthroughacquisitionandorganicgrowthindomestic less-than-truckload(LTL)brokerageanda

36、lsoinglobalfreightforwarding. Landstar SystemisanotherincumbentwithalargepresencealthoughtheLandstarmodelis more a hybrid than a pure brokerage approach. Landstar has a mix ofdedicated owneroperatorcapacity(BusinessCapacityOwnersinLandstarterminology)and unrelated capacity procured through their bro

37、keragecapability.Figure3:SelectedTruckBrokersGrossRevenue($inmillions)2011201420172018C.H. Robinsons NAST segment18,2009,0009,72911,248Landstar2,6512,9893,3884,280Total Quality Logistics (a/k/a TQL)1,0472,1502,9343,5003Coyote Logistics (a business of UPS)5592,1002,3602,9003XPOsN.A.FreightBrokeragebu

38、siness201,7502,5162,920Echo Global Logistics6031,1731,9432,440J.B. Hunts ICS segment3567181,0251,334Schneiders Brokerage business226413617802Hub Groups Truck Brokerage business339674824nm4Note: (1)NASTsegment(actual)for2017and2018,NASTsegmentequivalent(UBSe)for2014and2011;(2) Includesintermodal,dray

39、age,andexpedite;(3)UBSe;and(4)notcomparablebecauseofdivestitureofMode segment;Hubsegmenttruckbrokeragegrossrevenuewas$497mmin2018vs.$484mmin2017.Source: Company reports, Transport Topics, UBS analysis and estimatesFigure 4: Largest North America Freight Brokers (By Estimated Net Revenues in 2017)$ i

40、n millions1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Source: Transport TopicsWhileCHRWsscaleandreachremainunmatched,anumberofcompetitorshave realizedstronggrowthandhaveachievedsignificantscaleoverthepast10years. Total Quality Logistics (Cincinnati) was formed in 1997 and it has become the 3rd largest(or2

41、nd dependingonhowyoutreatLSTR)withover$3billion(seeFigure3) in gross revenue. Coyote was founded in 2006 and it also followed a sharp growth trajectory rising to over $2 bn in gross revenue in 2014 (Coyote was acquiredandiscurrentlypartofUPSsSupplyChainandLogisticssegment). We believedevelopmentofTQ

42、L,Coyote,andothercompetitorssuchasJBHuntsICS businessdroveincreasedcompetitionforCHRWoverthepasteight-plusyearswith a notable effect in 2011 2013. While the app downloads only measure one dimension of brokerage (connection with owner-operator capacity) they indicate that Uber Freight and Convoy have

43、 a growing presence although we do not believe they have reached the scale of the leading brokers we show in Figure 3, above. We expect Uber Freight and Convoy to add to competition in the brokerage market but it is unclear whether they will meaningfully change the dynamic in the medium term.Incumbe

44、nts vs App Focused vs Load BoardsInthisreportwerefertoconventionalorincumbentbrokerssuchasCHRW,Echo andotherwellestablishedplayersasBrokerswithApps. Whilethedistinctionsin their business models are likely modest, we refer to newer tech focused competitors such as Uber Freight and Convoy as App based

45、 brokers. A third category of players we examine in this report is the load boards. Dial a Truck (DAT)andTarethedominantloadboardsbutthereareothernewer players who offer some load board functionality including Truckloads, 123 Loadboard, Next Trucking and LoadExpress. Loadboards provides a central hu

46、b typeoffunctionwherebrokerscanpostloadsfortruckerstobookandcarrierscan postcapacity. Theimbalanceofloadsvscapacitysuggeststhatbrokersaremore activepostingloadsversuscarriersofferingcapacity. Finally,afourthcategorywe look at new to this report are the technology players that offer services like tra

47、ck-and-trace, and help brokers to find capacity and have a stronger link to carriers. AppsinthisgroupingincludeMacroPointforTruckers,TruckerTools,and CarrierLink.The North American Truckload Market Is FragmentedAs seen in HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Figure 5, below, carriers with 1-5 trucks comprise 89%

48、of all North America carriers, while carriers with 6-50 trucks comprises 10% and very large carriers with 4,000+ trucks do not register even one-tenth of a percent of all truckingcompanies. WithrespecttoCHRWsuseofcarriersbysize,23%ofthe carrierswith1-50trucksareactivewithCHRW,51%ofcarrierswith6-50tr

49、ucks are active with CHRW and 100% of carriers with over 400 trucks are active with CHRW.Figure 5: North America Carrier Share (CHRW Presentation, May 2017)1-5 Trucks6-50 Trucks51-399 Trucks400-3,999 Trucks4,000+ TrucksTotalN.A.Carriers183,91620,6911,89022722206,746% of Total N.A. Carriers89%10%0.9%

50、0.1%0.0%100%2016 CHRW Active Carriers41,81310,4861,8592272254,407% of Carriers Active w/ CHRW23%51%98%100%100%26%Note: Carriersinclude:Forhire,USA48State,activestatusupdatedin2014and2015 Source: CHRWpresentation(analysisofMay2015FMCSAsMCMISCensusData)UberFreightHasShownAMeaningfulShareOfApp Download

51、sIn2018/YTD19,ButMacroPointIs#1Asseenin HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Figure6,below,basedondatafromUBSEvidenceLab,MacroPointhas achieved 20% market share of “carrier side” truck brokerage / brokerage-related app downloads so far in 2019, pointing to the importance of visibility in trucking. Meanwhile, Uber

52、 Freight has achieved 15% market share so far in 2019. This compares to 15% in both 2018 and 2017 (when Uber Freights app was first available). Ontheotherhand,Truckloadswhichprovidesinformationtotruckers (available parking locations, etc.) and also acts as a load board has seen 8% share of downloads

53、 so far in 2019, compared to 10% in 2018, 22% in 2017, and 33%in2016. Convoy,DATLoadBoard,andJ.B.HuntCarrieraretied/ranked#5 so far in 2019 with 6% share of downloads, compared to high single digits in 2018. Notably,J.B.HuntCarrierapphasseenitsmarketsharerise(generally)over the last few years to 6%

54、so far in 2019 from 4-5% in 2017/16/15 (note: though the 6% so far in 2019 is modestly below the 8% in 2018). In our view this is consistent with JBHTs increased investment in technology and goal to grow in truck brokerage. The analysis of downloads for XPOs carrier app showed a low levelofdownloads

55、,andasaresultwedonotincludeitinFigure6,below.Importantly, while CHRWs Navisphere Carrier app has seen its market share of downloads decrease to 4% so far in 2019, from 5% in 2018 and 7% in 2017, this is still solid market share in our view. We also note that the app presence with carriersisafunction

56、ofthecumulativedownloadsovertime,andCHRWhashada meaningful share of downloads on a multi-yearbasis.Figure6:ShareofDownloadsAllincludingUberFreight,Brokersw/Apps,App-basedBrokers,LoadBoards,&RelayTotal Share, RankService2015201620172018YTD191MacroPoint17%19%14%13%20%2Uber Freight0%0%15%15%15%3Trucklo

57、ads2%33%22%10%8%4Trucker Tools17%8%6%6%7%5CarrierLink1%1%3%4%6%5Convoy0%2%4%6%6%5DAT Load Board0%0%7%9%6%5J.B. Hunt Carrier2%3%3%8%6%9Truckstop8%5%4%5%5%10123 Loadboard12%7%5%5%4%10Navisphere Carrier11%7%7%5%4%10TQL Carrier9%4%2%4%4%13Amazon Relay0%0%1%4%3%14Coyote Carrier7%4%3%2%2%14Landstar Carrie

58、r5%1%2%3%2%16Next Trucking0%0%0%1%1%16Transfix2%2%2%0%1%18Allen Lund Carrier0%0%0%0%0%18Echo Carrier0%0%0%0%0%18LoadExpress0%0%0%0%0%18Loadsmart0%0%0%0%0%Note:AggregateofiOSandGooglePlay;excludesKoubei Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor TowerApp-BasedTruckBrokersHaveSeenARenewedModest IncreaseInShareO

59、fDownloadsInRecentMonthsAsseenin HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Figure7,below,basedondatafromUBSEvidenceLab,app-basedtruck brokershavegrowntoamid30smarketsharepercentage(note:36%inFebruary 2019). This compares to about 28% in October 2018. Meanwhile, load boards also have a mid 30s market share of downloads

60、 recently (note: 35% in February 2019), compared to 42% in October 2018; and truck brokers with apps have a morestablehigh20smarketsharepercentageoverthelastfewmonths.Figure7:Shr.ofDownloadsBrokersw/Appsvs.App-basedvs.LoadBoards90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Examples ofTr