spss非線性回歸分析

1、1.課程名稱實用統(tǒng)計軟件實驗項目名稱非線性回歸分析實驗成績指導老師（簽名）日期2011-9-23一實驗目的1掌握非線性回歸的基本原理和算法；能夠用SPSS軟件應用非線性回歸模型解決實際問題。二.實驗內容與要求根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)金屬強度測試.sav利用曲線參數(shù)估計法分析金屬強度（y）與溫度（x）之間的關系。實現(xiàn)書上P189中的研究問題。第一步要選中所有的模型，然后根據(jù)R-square和擬合曲線標準選擇模型！并且要預測到2010年的數(shù)據(jù)！三實驗步驟模型選擇（標準：R-square以及擬合曲線的比較）所選擇模型的擬合優(yōu)度（R-square、擬合曲線）所選擇模型的回歸方程（回歸系數(shù)的估計值）所選擇模型的檢驗問題

2、（模型方差分析表：模型顯著性F檢驗、回歸系數(shù)非零T檢驗）保存關心的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)（預測值、殘差值、預測值的置信區(qū)間）具體操作參見課件非線性回歸分析.PPT四.實驗結果（數(shù)據(jù)與圖形）與分析強度OObservedLinearLogarrtlunicInverseQuadratic-CubicCoinpoiindPowerSGrowthExpaneiitial_-LogisticModelSummaryandParameterEstimatesDependentVariable:強度ModelSummaryParameterEstimatesEquationRSquareFdf1df2Sig.Consta

3、ntb1b2b3Linear.67412.39116.013.719-.002Logarithmic.92573.71216.0002.518-.424Inverse.983346.05116.000-.09155.466Quadratic.94441.91025.0011.171-.0068.416E-6Cubic.993186.30234.0001.485-.0123.409E-5-3.144E-8Compound.992760.86116.0001.324.991Power.93281.77216.0002.136E3-1.833S.69313.53516.010-3.356200.73

4、0Growth.992760.86116.000.281-.009Exponential.992760.86116.0001.324-.009ModelSummaryandParameterEstimatesDependentVariable:強度EquationModelSummaryParameterEstimatesRSquareFdf1df2Sig.Constantb1b2b3Linear.67412.39116.013.719-.002Logarithmic.92573.71216.0002.518-.424Inverse.983346.05116.000-.09155.466Qua

5、dratic.94441.91025.0011.171-.0068.416E-6Cubic.993186.30234.0001.485-.0123.409E-5-3.144E-8Compound.992760.86116.0001.324.991Power.93281.77216.0002.136E3-1.833S.69313.53516.010-3.356200.730Growth.992760.86116.000.281-.009Exponential.992760.86116.0001.324-.009Logistic.992760.84016.000.7551.009Theindepe

6、ndentvariableis溫度.圖中看出Cubic,Compound,Growth,Exponential和Logistic較高，其中Cubic最高，所以選擇三次函數(shù)擬合。OObservedCubicCoinpoiindGrowthExponential-Logistic觀察得，圖形更接近Cubic和Exponential兩種曲線。強度OObservedCubicExponentialCubic函數(shù)在500處為0,有明顯差異。OObservedExponentialSig.y=1.324*e0.009xANOVASumofSquaresdfMeanSquareFSig.Regression

7、14.368114.368760.861.000Residual.1136.019Total14.4827Theindependentvariableis溫度.CoefficientsUnstandardizedCoefficientsStandardizedCoefficientsBStd.ErrorBeta2.-.996-27.584.00010.382.000溫度-.009.000(Constant)1.324.128ThedependentvariableisIn(強度).XyFF1ERR1LCL1UCL150000.9770.628880.348120.042201.21556100

8、000.5660.538910.02709-0.D24821.102641600.2840.4JB94JJ.1GA94-0.098060.99595200000.1720.358970.18697-0.178110.896062500.1200.269004J.14100-0.265340.003353onno.72D172D30IQ7D3-03S9S77179440UU00.029-0.000900.02990-0.569820.568015000.014-0.160040.19484-0.603900.44221CoefficientsaUnstandardizedStandardized

9、CoefficientsCoefficientsStd.ModelBErrorBetat1(Constant).719.1444.982溫度-.002.001-.821-3.520IntervalforBCorrelationsLowerUpperSig.BoundBoundZero-orderPartialPart.002.3661.072.013-.003.000-.821-.821-.82195%Confidencea.DependentVariable:強度0.366,1.072-0.003,0OObservedLinearLogarrtlunicInverseQuadratic-Cu

10、bicCoinpoiindPowerSGrowthExpaneiitial_-LogisticModelSummaryandParameterEstimatesDependentVariable:社會消費品零售總額ModelSummaryParameterEstimatesEquationRSquareFdf1df2Sig.Constantb1b2b3Linear.836137.490127.000-1.372E42.325E3Logarithmic.52730.083127.000-2.442E41.854E4Inverse.1846.104127.0202.764E4-4.756E4Qua

11、dratic.987953.866226.0006.756E3-1.639E3132.133Cubic.9951.816E3325.000230.765768.904-65.2004.385Compound.9955.654E3127.0001.368E31.152Power.856160.241127.000446.2581.322S.43120.448127.0009.905-4.068Growth.9955.654E3127.0007.221.142Exponential.9955.654E3127.0001.368E3.142ModelSummaryandParameterEstima

12、tesDependentVariable:社會消費品零售總額EquationModelSummaryParameterEstimatesRSquareFdf1df2Sig.Constantb1b2b3Linear.836137.490127.000-1.372E42.325E3Logarithmic.52730.083127.000-2.442E41.854E4Inverse.1846.104127.0202.764E4-4.756E4Quadratic.987953.866226.0006.756E3-1.639E3132.133Cubic.9951.816E3325.000230.7657

13、68.904-65.2004.385Compound.9955.654E3127.0001.368E31.152Power.856160.241127.000446.2581.322S.43120.448127.0009.905-4.068Growth.9955.654E3127.0007.221.142Exponential.9955.654E3127.0001.368E3.142Logistic.9967.339E3127.000.001.856Logistic，Cublic，Compound，Growth，Exponential擬合度較高。OObservedCubicCoinpoiind

14、GrowthExponential-Logistic觀察得，Cublic和Logistic曲線更接近觀察值。OObservedCubicLogisticOObseivedCubicModelSummaryandParameterEstimatesDependentVariable:社會消費品零售總額ModelSummaryParameterEstimatesEquationRSquareFdf1df2Sig.Constantb1b2b3Cubic.9951.816E3325.000230.765768.904-65.2004.385y230.765+768.904x一65.2x2+4.385x

15、3StandardizedCoefficientsCoefficientsUnstandardizedCoefficientsStd.ErrorBetaSig.CaseSequence2324.553198.246.91411.726.000(Constant)-13724.6833404.981-4.031.000竺日巨應ntm*n_：:並s號id:HlJi湎筋綽3yF(rFir*F1T_3FTTJFTTJ5FHJIF叮1lETiB362I卻旨11400I芒岳-2433?5-TSI-K6I52碾知KS33BI131S1E3E4I臨S8SD2israIdClift-f.q5KJ-1&HIBi&

16、ESKnisein345.621iCJ：i-mi.o：3Sj：iiL44i：n11W.77K2i：3U2fi.79SS2089.)M3.574W.：3EO3?4i9ai撤曲矽Q1308232M2312292543.&3&S?241262m.l94J!5IES25323425?nn-21DIBI724列呂MH181290陽為IBE1IB4&IEB43?2I27KL7E4EI3WJJOffi6IM3KG7E494aSOG03373T37I41I7S0IG7EDSSI344419M133WM&E4?B3S8DI71d72ffi15313M71跚1166365611SM問喝1W39Q5S3K2J1&I

17、636S3516ffi珅礙uBWWiB.0433S.O14139.71M21阿TOM4454.朋刪.趣隔1翻的噴弓1SS5IH27B271K-2lKil75323JOWl2Z30OJ32002?w.razy5HS0.EOP35wIM?120965810K3084SH1HZF7E1C2ZBS4K4&135珂B754占3=8fi09653E6W5切IB415nI?83I5CM2Snal1S4=-4ai3a20M呂切曲Z33F(KOa4II1233W6t36l1EC451E1541百IDOT.?5s|?E12癒1iO.3SVI.414W.964492ISS.6224I23ff77.E9W別鍛陽瀬7W

18、6.41SP97W&1瞞Tl強換13im1iS667.6B3D0.1iMji.ara23142mOM匚総麗37773.74744am.sraa購斕1W.1E2364ii217B1.5B41EJ51EB1?S9TOI.KQXiCMUTOil99Fi.mS3915IEEE22KG占IUS3?21l3E1胡25?9G42901：-4463323311B9H.3ZIP311BS&I砂3I1I9BS43SIHJ1B5KG1IfiISgBiS迪孚門ELI234卸B6Wssonza:KSsl.DKfe1117398?舊邁924*174499S17W4BW.91K3&I.7smarnn2S117.4O2445

19、MW.K77117U71J5M10B3.730061.276O101.4E19956i.72BD.O281177310酬F.：測F1SCW.ITIO18ECU1CT17W716812&38686Sigire71mE77?4I3041835213DI?99H249151374=4233XB5HI2I3KIE9H353DBIZM77718S593535iser?773n273B93Z?K-373313HBIEr777SE2E12SS140E4B24fi1HE3331354575Z343244XEZlis兇怛占33053241aaESMssSSTSiLfi環(huán)5附2fi93&2Si4i：-49&350

20、7C?3W8K57J91134.7：3P41i-.4M2SWB.HBOfiSSUmiOi2D32203.23380?IO4B.WH2B57y.26S323藏俶：341S.63?7ii：r=(a25572.71K6M4?J422i.36?79.21ES33S7BO.43305201605002AMlI096S2420643172345門06詔SKHH?4?443SIBD51759S23IIZBESfiO29SD2fi6WSfi2no?1B32.74HI3SS44388I44H3Sia=ffi3O茜翊価IT4835312S7I4?2I.7SHS4524EOE64314-404=61ZEaamcMHi53俎彌伯&P72D&M5沏”禹斛E2004-M?L0尊克；肯10336M.1W25O.05S9GIsssiEisraeB9(ra79305備佻迤？63a5.423&4對2LM51838