宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的五個(gè)爭(zhēng)論問(wèn)題課件

1、36Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的五個(gè)爭(zhēng)論問(wèn)題Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? 貨幣和財(cái)政政策制定者是否應(yīng)該試圖去穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)？2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? 貨幣政策應(yīng)該依據(jù)規(guī)則還是隨意指定？3.Should the central bank aim

2、 for zero inflation? 央行的目標(biāo)是否應(yīng)該是零通脹？4.Should the government balance its budget? 政府是否應(yīng)該收支平衡？5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving? 稅法是否需要改革，使其刺激儲(chǔ)蓄？1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyThe economy is

3、inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate. 經(jīng)濟(jì)本身不穩(wěn)定，放任不管會(huì)導(dǎo)致其波動(dòng)。Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations. 為了消除不穩(wěn)定性和嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)，政策可以管理總需求There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts

4、 of the business cycle. 社會(huì)沒(méi)有理由在商業(yè)周期的頂峰和低谷中蒙受損失。Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyMonetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.長(zhǎng)期的和不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的滯后性Many studies indicate that changes in

5、 monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.很多研究說(shuō)明貨幣政策的變化對(duì)總需求幾乎沒(méi)有影響Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyFiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.政策制定

6、是一個(gè)政治過(guò)程It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal policy.執(zhí)行問(wèn)題Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyAll too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations. 政策制定者經(jīng)常無(wú)意中惡化而不是減輕經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)程度。It might

7、be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal. 如果政策制定者可以消除所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)，這可能是好的，但是這不是一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)的目標(biāo)。2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleDiscretionary monetary policy can suffer fro

8、m incompetence and abuse of power.權(quán)力的無(wú)能和濫用To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendarthe political business cycle.政治經(jīng)濟(jì)周期Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleThere may be a discre

9、pancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually docalled time inconsistency of policy.政策的時(shí)間不一致Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent, people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation. 因?yàn)檎咧贫ㄕ呓?jīng)常呈現(xiàn)時(shí)間不一致的特點(diǎn)，當(dāng)央行宣布降低通

10、脹率時(shí)人們會(huì)表示懷疑。Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleCommitting CB to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency.央行應(yīng)該相對(duì)獨(dú)立，比如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)；貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則行事Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule An important advantage of discretionary m

11、onetary policy is its flexibility.靈活性Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances. 不靈活的政策會(huì)限制政策制定者對(duì)變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的反應(yīng)能力。Con: Monetary policy should not be made by ruleThe alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical.

12、所謂隨意性和濫用權(quán)力的問(wèn)題很大程度是人為假設(shè)的。Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear. 同時(shí)，政治商業(yè)循環(huán)的重要性并不明晰。3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation通貨膨脹會(huì)給社會(huì)帶來(lái)各種成本。Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary costs and permanent benef

13、its.反通脹暫時(shí)有成本但長(zhǎng)期受益Once the disinflationary recession is over, the benefits of zero inflation would persist.反通脹所引發(fā)的衰退是暫時(shí)的，一旦結(jié)束，零通脹的好處就會(huì)持久。Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflationZero inflation is probably unattainable, and to get there involves output, unemployment, and social costs tha

14、t are too high.零通脹幾乎做不到，即使做到，付出的代價(jià)也會(huì)太大。通脹的很多成本被高估，比如皮鞋成本、菜單成本等。Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without actually reducing inflation.實(shí)際上可以不降低通脹，但同時(shí)減少諸多通脹的成本4.Should fiscal policymakers reduce the government debt?Pro: The government should balance its budgetBudget deficits impose

15、 an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.代際矛盾李嘉圖等價(jià)定理（Ricardian Equivalence Theorem）認(rèn)為，征稅和政府借款在邏輯上是相同的。巴羅（Robert Barro）在其1974年發(fā)表地政府債券是凈財(cái)富嗎?一文中，用現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論對(duì)李嘉圖的上述思想進(jìn)行重新闡述。這一術(shù)語(yǔ)，最早出現(xiàn)在1976年詹姆斯布坎南（James Buchanan）發(fā)表的題為巴羅的論李嘉圖等價(jià)定理的評(píng)論中。Pro: The government

16、should balance its budgetDeficits reduce national saving, leading to a smaller stock of capital, which reduces productivity and growth. 赤字減少了國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄，導(dǎo)致了較小的資本存量，從而降低了生產(chǎn)力和增長(zhǎng)。Con: The government should not balance its budgetThe problem with the deficit is often exaggerated. 赤字問(wèn)題經(jīng)常被放大。The transfer of debt

17、to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.公債可能導(dǎo)致未來(lái)稅負(fù)增加，但其公共支出也可以使未來(lái)受益。Con: The government should not balance its budgetThe government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nations abili

18、ty to pay the interest on the debt.人口增長(zhǎng)和技術(shù)進(jìn)步會(huì)提高未來(lái)的償債能力5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingA nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity. 國(guó)家的儲(chǔ)蓄率是長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的關(guān)鍵因素。A nations productive capability is determ

19、ined largely by how much it saves and invests for the future. 國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)能力很大程度取決于它儲(chǔ)蓄了多少和為未來(lái)投資了多少。The consequences of high capital income tax policies are reduced saving, reduced capital accumulation, lower labor productivity, and reduced economic growth. 高資本收入稅政策的結(jié)果是減少儲(chǔ)蓄、減少資本積累、降低勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率和減少經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。Con: Tax la

20、ws should not be reformed to encourage savingMany of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄的稅法改革有利于富人，這導(dǎo)致社會(huì)不平等加劇。High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than low-income households. 與低收入家庭相比，高收入家庭會(huì)將收入中的更大部分儲(chǔ)存起來(lái)。Any tax change that fa

21、vors people who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes. 任何有利于儲(chǔ)蓄的稅收變動(dòng)會(huì)有利于高收入的人群1933年之前古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)1929-1933經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條凱恩斯以及凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)1970年經(jīng)濟(jì)滯脹新凱恩斯主義附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦重泿胖髁x新古典綜合新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（貨幣主義II）實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論2008年全球金融危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退未來(lái)會(huì)出現(xiàn)新的理論綜合？第 一章 導(dǎo)論Slide 26附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦执笫挆l與凱恩斯以及凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)20世紀(jì)30年代的世界性經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條1929年10月24日、29日連續(xù)

22、經(jīng)歷“黑色星期三”和“黑色星期二”，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)下跌29.5。隨后，一場(chǎng)股市危機(jī)逐漸蔓延，演變成世界性經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。到1933年，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)出總量比1929年下降30，而失業(yè)率從1929年的3.5上升到1933年的25,而且在整個(gè)30年代平均失業(yè)率達(dá)到18%。 第 一章 導(dǎo)論Slide 27附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦脂F(xiàn)代宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的誕生：1936年Mynard Keynes A General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦謩P恩斯的理論：有效需求不足原理：大危機(jī)是由于有效需求不足造成的，政府可以通過(guò)擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策來(lái)解

23、決經(jīng)濟(jì)的蕭條。價(jià)格粘性原理：拋棄古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的市場(chǎng)出清假設(shè)，認(rèn)為價(jià)格機(jī)制存在各種局限，無(wú)法靈活調(diào)節(jié)。流動(dòng)性偏好假定和貨幣非中性原理適應(yīng)性預(yù)期附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦直尘埃好绹?guó)的羅斯福新政以及二戰(zhàn)后的重建導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)興。和凱恩斯的很多想法不謀而合。凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的形成美國(guó)年輕一代的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家開(kāi)始信奉凱恩斯的通論凱恩斯革命Hansen，Hicks，Samuelson，Modilianni以及Tobin等經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家將凱恩斯理論轉(zhuǎn)化成一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的理論體系，從而形成凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派。在60年代達(dá)到了它的頂峰。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦謶?zhàn)后美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮，使得凱恩斯主義迅速傳播，并成為最大的理論派別。美

24、國(guó)前總統(tǒng)尼克松曾興奮地說(shuō)，“我們現(xiàn)在都是凱恩斯主義者”。主要代表人物：1、阿爾文漢森（Alvin Hansen 1887-1975）；2、?？怂?Sir John Richard Hicks (April 8, 1904 May 20, 1989) ；3、保羅薩繆爾森（Paul Samuelson 1915- ）；4、詹姆斯托賓（Jams Tobin 1918-2002）；5、弗蘭科莫迪利安尼（Franco Modigliani 1918- ）；6、羅伯特索羅（Robert Solow 1924- ）；7、勞倫斯羅伯特克萊因（L. Robert Klein 1920- ）附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想

25、叢林凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的政策主張：經(jīng)濟(jì)是內(nèi)在不穩(wěn)定的，容易受到反復(fù)無(wú)常的沖擊。比如凱恩斯所謂的投資者的“動(dòng)物精神”。經(jīng)濟(jì)受到外在沖擊后，無(wú)法迅速自我均衡。產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)是由總需求決定的，政府可以通過(guò)總需求管理政策來(lái)迅速恢復(fù)產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)水平。財(cái)政政策更為可取。接受價(jià)格粘性和市場(chǎng)非出清假設(shè)以及凱恩斯的上述幾個(gè)假設(shè)附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦中鹿诺渚C合：隨著弗里德曼等人的批評(píng)，以及滯漲等復(fù)雜經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象，凱恩斯主義者開(kāi)始吸收一些新古典微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想，并把政府干預(yù)和自由市場(chǎng)結(jié)合起來(lái)。因此60-70年代的凱恩斯主義者又被稱(chēng)為新古典綜合派。特別是凱恩斯主義者把晦澀的通論簡(jiǎn)化為簡(jiǎn)潔的IS-LM模型（產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)-貨幣市場(chǎng)均

26、衡模型，漢森和?？怂沟热税l(fā)明的）。同時(shí)引入菲利普斯曲線(xiàn)。政策上引入了充分就業(yè)政策，以及宏觀政策微觀化等。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦?0年代滯脹經(jīng)濟(jì)與新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)雙高經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題：高失業(yè)率與高通貨膨脹率并存，經(jīng)濟(jì)在停滯的同時(shí)，陷入了高通貨膨脹。此即滯脹Stagflation。傳統(tǒng)凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)理論認(rèn)為失業(yè)率與通貨膨脹率具有交替關(guān)系，無(wú)法解釋這一經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)借此機(jī)會(huì)興起，并最終導(dǎo)致凱恩斯主義銷(xiāo)聲匿跡。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦中鹿诺浜暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的前身貨幣主義上世紀(jì)50-60年代，M. Friedman建立了貨幣主義學(xué)派，幾乎以一己之力和凱恩斯主義抗衡。貨幣主義的主要思想：貨幣存量的變化

27、是解釋貨幣收入變化的最主要因素經(jīng)濟(jì)是內(nèi)在穩(wěn)定的，除非受到起伏不定的貨幣增長(zhǎng)的干擾。復(fù)興貨幣數(shù)量論。長(zhǎng)期貨幣中性。長(zhǎng)期看，失業(yè)和通脹不存在交替關(guān)系。長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線(xiàn)垂直。通貨膨脹和國(guó)際收支本質(zhì)上是貨幣現(xiàn)象。采取有規(guī)則的貨幣政策。財(cái)政政策作用有限。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦掷硇灶A(yù)期學(xué)派新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的早期版本。 Developed by American economists Robert Lucas (1937- ) and THOMAS SARGENT (1943- ), N. Wallace ，and British economists PATRICK MINFORD (1943- )

28、and MICHAEL BEENSTOCK (1946- ).新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)三大基本假設(shè)：理性預(yù)期假說(shuō)：經(jīng)濟(jì)個(gè)體是理性的最大化決策者，不會(huì)一直形成有系統(tǒng)性的錯(cuò)誤預(yù)期。除非受到暫時(shí)的欺騙。持續(xù)市場(chǎng)出清假說(shuō)：市場(chǎng)具有持續(xù)出清能力，不存在價(jià)格粘性總供給假說(shuō)：廠(chǎng)商利潤(rùn)最大化；居民最優(yōu)配置勞動(dòng)和閑暇，總供給依賴(lài)相對(duì)價(jià)格。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦中鹿诺浜暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的主要政策主張：政策無(wú)效主張。除非政府欺騙居民和企業(yè)，但這只有短期效果。通脹本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)貨幣現(xiàn)象。降低通脹的產(chǎn)量-就業(yè)成本。由于當(dāng)事人理性預(yù)期，通脹的犧牲率可能很小。因而無(wú)需采取相機(jī)抉擇的總需求管理政策。僅僅需要規(guī)則的貨幣政策。動(dòng)態(tài)時(shí)間不一致性

29、，重視宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的聲譽(yù)和貨幣規(guī)則。微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策在提高總供給中的作用。盧卡斯批評(píng)。宏觀模型的參數(shù)不變，而當(dāng)事人會(huì)及時(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊做出反應(yīng)。即參數(shù)實(shí)際上是可變的。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦稚鲜兰o(jì)80年代的新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論（ Real Business Cycle Theory or RBC Theory ）, developed by Robert Lucas, Jr., Finn E. Kydland, and Edward C. Prescott, Robert J. Barro等。其中大多數(shù)人或多或少和羅切斯特大學(xué)有關(guān)聯(lián)。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦謱?shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論的政策主張

30、：當(dāng)事人的目的是在現(xiàn)行資源約束下的效用或者利潤(rùn)最大化當(dāng)事人理性地形成預(yù)期，不會(huì)受到信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的危害價(jià)格靈活，市場(chǎng)持續(xù)出清技術(shù)沖擊假說(shuō)：總產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)的波動(dòng)是技術(shù)的隨機(jī)變化引起（即供給因素，而非貨幣因素）工作時(shí)間的跨期配置假說(shuō)：就業(yè)波動(dòng)是人們工作時(shí)間的自愿配置的結(jié)果貨幣政策無(wú)意義，短期也是中性經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)無(wú)所謂長(zhǎng)期和短期之分。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦謱?shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論推翻了八十年代之前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)形成的共識(shí)：1、總產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)是對(duì)增長(zhǎng)率的某種趨勢(shì)的暫時(shí)性偏離2、總產(chǎn)出不穩(wěn)定降低了社會(huì)福利，所以需要適當(dāng)?shù)恼咧卫?、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)是貨幣因素帶來(lái)的。附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦謩P恩斯主義的復(fù)興新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的理性人

31、假說(shuō)拒絕市場(chǎng)出清假說(shuō)：價(jià)格是粘性的，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)的不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以及價(jià)格調(diào)整成本的存在。新凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上世紀(jì)80年代，針對(duì)新古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的咄咄逼人，特別是盧卡斯宣稱(chēng)凱恩斯主義已經(jīng)死亡之后，一批年輕的天才經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家開(kāi)始試圖復(fù)活凱恩斯，并最終形成了新凱恩斯主義，曼昆和羅默把相關(guān)的論文匯編成冊(cè)1991年出版，并命名為新凱恩斯主義。N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer, eds., (1991), New Keynesian Economics. Vol. 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices, MIT Press, ISBN 0-262-63133-4. Vol. 2: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities. MIT Press, ISBN 0-262-63133-2.附錄：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的思想?yún)擦中聞P恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的代表人物：哈佛大學(xué)的N. David Mankiw.