人力資源需求的預(yù)測(1)ppt課件

1、人力資源需求的預(yù)測.人力資源供求情況分析升職升職招聘崗位編制調(diào)入降職降職離任調(diào)出人才市場競爭對(duì)手其他部門其他業(yè)務(wù)本部門本部門.人力資源需求的預(yù)測A key component of HRP is forecasting the number and type of people needed to meet organizational objectives. A variety of organizational factors, including competitive strategy, technology, structure, and productivity, can infl

2、uence the demand.Forecasting HR RequirementsEstimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need at future datesDemand for firms goods or services must be forecastForecast is then converted into people requirements.Forecasting HR AvailabilityDetermining whether the firm will be able

3、 to secure employees with the necessary skills, and from what sources these individuals may be obtainedShow whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the company, from outside the organization, or from a combination of the two sources.人才貯藏第一年第二年第三年n1n2n3招聘招聘人才貯藏1人才貯藏2n2n人才貯藏招聘需求n3n2人才

4、貯藏2人才貯藏需求人才稀缺度越高人才貯藏越重要規(guī)劃的關(guān)鍵是n1、n2、n3確實(shí)定.定量分析方法(Quantitative Approaches )Quantitative approaches to forecasting involve the use of statistical or mathematical technique; they are the approaches used by theoreticians and professional planners. .趨勢(shì)預(yù)測法 (Trend analysis )“With the past, we can see trajec

5、tories into the future - both catastrophic and creative projections. -John Ralston Saul The Trend Analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response data over time. This is especially valuable, if you are conducting a long running survey and would like to measure differences in perception and re

6、sponses over time. .預(yù)測步驟搜集企業(yè)在過去幾年內(nèi)人員數(shù)量的數(shù)據(jù)根據(jù)這些數(shù)據(jù)做圖，用數(shù)學(xué)方法進(jìn)展修正，使其成為平滑曲線 將這條曲線延伸就可以看出未來的變化趨勢(shì) .例題某企業(yè)過去8年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下表，預(yù)測今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少。年度12345678人數(shù)450455465480485490510525.定性分析法Qualitative analysisQualitative approaches to forecasting are less statistical, attempting to reconcile the interests, abilities

7、, and aspirations of individual employees with the current and future staffing need of an organization.客觀判別法Management forecastsManagement forecasts are the opinions (judgments) of supervisors, department managers, experts, or others knowledgeable about the organizations future employment needs.德爾菲法

8、Delphi technique 德爾菲法：也稱專家小組法，是采用咨詢意見表，利用通訊方式，向一個(gè)專家小組進(jìn)展調(diào)查，將專家小組的判別預(yù)測加以集中、反響，并反復(fù)調(diào)查多次，最終利用集體的智慧得出市場景象未來預(yù)測結(jié)果的定性預(yù)測方法。.差距提交反響修正提交反響修正提交反響同意第一輪第二輪第三輪提交：運(yùn)營方案、編制、人力本錢反響：優(yōu)缺陷、建議、意見修正：運(yùn)營方案、財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)算經(jīng)過反復(fù)的反響與修正縮短運(yùn)營方案與公司總體財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)算的差距。.特征匿名性 匿名是德爾菲法的極其重要的特點(diǎn)，從事預(yù)測的專家彼此互不知道其他有哪些人參與預(yù)測，他們是在完全匿名的情況下交流思想的。 .多次有控制的反響 小組成員的交流是經(jīng)過回答組

9、織者的問題來實(shí)現(xiàn)的。它普通要經(jīng)過假設(shè)干輪反響才干完成預(yù)測。.小組的統(tǒng)計(jì)回答 它報(bào)告一個(gè)中位數(shù)和兩個(gè)四分點(diǎn)，其中一半落在兩個(gè)四分點(diǎn)內(nèi)，一半落在兩個(gè)四分點(diǎn)之外。這樣，每種觀念都包括在這樣的統(tǒng)計(jì)中了，防止了專家會(huì)議法的一個(gè)缺陷。.德爾菲法的實(shí)施步驟： 1 確定預(yù)測標(biāo)題，選定專家小組；2 設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查表，預(yù)備有關(guān)資料；3 咨詢專家初次判別意見；4 綜合整理收回的各位專家初次判別意見，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要闡明。并反響給各位專家，請(qǐng)他們?cè)俅嗡妓?，提出判別意見；5 經(jīng)過反復(fù)咨詢意見后，做出預(yù)測值。.優(yōu)缺陷德爾菲法的優(yōu)點(diǎn)： 1 各專家可以在不受干擾的情況下，獨(dú)立、充分地闡明本人的意見； 2 預(yù)測值是根據(jù)各位

10、專家的意見綜合而成的，可以發(fā)揚(yáng)集體的智慧； 3 運(yùn)用面比較廣，費(fèi)用比較節(jié)省。德爾菲法的缺陷： 在綜合預(yù)測值時(shí)，僅僅是根據(jù)各專家的客觀判別，缺乏客觀規(guī)范，而且顯得強(qiáng)求一致。.PURPOSEThe purpose of the Delphi technique is to elicit information and judgments from participants to facilitate problem-solving, planning, and decision-making. It does so without physically assembling the contrib

11、utors. Instead, information is exchanged via mail, FAX, or . This technique is designed to take advantage of participants creativity as well as the facilitating effects of group involvement and interaction. It is structured to capitalize on the merits of group problem-solving and minimize the liabilities of group problem-solving. .PROCESS Identify the issue and solicit