汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)

1、中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)開展趨勢(shì)一、<全球角度汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)全球化地趨勢(shì)及汽車需求增長(zhǎng)地國(guó)際格局 汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地全球化集中表達(dá)在特征上：一是汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,包括投資、生產(chǎn)、采購(gòu)、銷售及售后效勞、研發(fā)等主要環(huán)節(jié)地日益全球性配置.例如,過去跨國(guó)公司在本國(guó)建立、保持研發(fā)機(jī)構(gòu),對(duì)于目標(biāo)國(guó)市場(chǎng)采取復(fù)制產(chǎn)品地方式進(jìn)行投資,而現(xiàn)在那么采取將各個(gè)功能活動(dòng)和能力分配給全球市場(chǎng)地方式.由此導(dǎo)致了新地專業(yè)化分工協(xié)作模式地出現(xiàn),特別是整車裝配與零部件企業(yè)之間呈現(xiàn)別離趨勢(shì),零部件地跨國(guó)公司越來越多,零部件企業(yè)與整車裝配企業(yè)之間以合同為紐帶地網(wǎng)絡(luò)型組織結(jié)構(gòu)日趨明顯.整車制造企業(yè)零部件地全球采購(gòu)以及零部件工業(yè)地國(guó)際化,模糊了汽車產(chǎn)品地“國(guó)家特

2、征,使其成為了典型地全球化產(chǎn)品.二是巨型汽車企業(yè)之間地大規(guī)模重組,形成了“6+3地格局,9大汽車集團(tuán)地產(chǎn)量已占世界汽車產(chǎn)量80以上.汽車企業(yè)在全球地大規(guī)模重組實(shí)質(zhì)性地改變了傳統(tǒng)地資源配置方式、產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模式和產(chǎn)業(yè)組織結(jié)構(gòu),并使各國(guó)特別是開展中國(guó)家以往地汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)開展戰(zhàn)略和相關(guān)政策面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn).b5E2RGbCAP資料個(gè)人收集整理，勿做商業(yè)用途從汽車產(chǎn)銷量地地理分布看,歐美興旺國(guó)家,普遍出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重地市場(chǎng)疲軟,而開展中國(guó)家,特別是亞洲國(guó)家地形勢(shì)看好.在亞洲,韓國(guó)、泰國(guó)和中國(guó)等以其良好地成長(zhǎng)性和巨大地潛力,繼續(xù)成為世界汽車市場(chǎng)地亮點(diǎn).據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),從2002年到2021年,全球汽車產(chǎn)量將增加1100萬輛,亞太

3、地區(qū)將新增7百萬輛以上,占到65,而其中將有一半來自中國(guó).p1EanqFDPw二、近年來中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模和市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化 中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)經(jīng)過40多年地開展,已經(jīng)成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)地重要產(chǎn)業(yè).隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)開展水平地不斷提高和轎車開始進(jìn)入家庭,中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為世界上增長(zhǎng)最為迅速地市場(chǎng),對(duì)全球汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生地巨大影響力.2002年全年累計(jì)生產(chǎn)汽車325輛,比2001年同期增長(zhǎng)3849,銷售汽車3248萬輛,比2001年同期增漲371,完成工業(yè)增加值1515億元,同比增長(zhǎng)60.94.汽車消費(fèi)成為拉動(dòng)2002年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)地主要力量.DXDiTa9E3d具有法人地位地汽車生產(chǎn)廠有120余家.2002年一汽、東風(fēng)、上汽等3大汽車

4、集團(tuán)生產(chǎn)集中度為57,比2001年提高了8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；中國(guó)轎車由于企業(yè)進(jìn)入和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)劇烈,銷量前3位地上海群眾、一汽群眾和上海通用占總銷量地534,比2001年前3名地市場(chǎng)份額下降了68個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；其他各類汽車地生產(chǎn)集中度總體來講較之2001年也有一定程度地下降.就單個(gè)企業(yè)規(guī)模而言,中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)地前4名一汽、東風(fēng)、上汽、長(zhǎng)安等4大集團(tuán)汽車生產(chǎn)能力在30萬-60萬輛之間,規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益開始顯現(xiàn).盡管如此,與世界級(jí)地汽車生產(chǎn)企業(yè)相比擬,中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)企業(yè)地規(guī)模仍然偏小.RTCrpUDGiT市場(chǎng)劇烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)帶來地直接影響,一是促使汽車價(jià)格持續(xù)下降,最終到達(dá)合理價(jià)位；二是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)領(lǐng)域不斷擴(kuò)展,不僅包括產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、質(zhì)量、性能

5、,而且涉及市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷、售后效勞、市場(chǎng)應(yīng)變能力等各個(gè)方面；三是技術(shù)進(jìn)步、產(chǎn)品研發(fā)將成為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)焦點(diǎn).通過充分而有效地競(jìng)爭(zhēng)推進(jìn)企業(yè)優(yōu)勝劣汰,勢(shì)不可擋,并將成為推動(dòng)整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)健康開展地主導(dǎo)力量.5PCzVD7HxA三、中國(guó)汽車工業(yè)市場(chǎng)空間、投資時(shí)機(jī)與盈利前景預(yù)測(cè) 未來時(shí)期隨著影響中國(guó)汽車需求市場(chǎng)地價(jià)格、居民收入和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、汽車信貸、消費(fèi)環(huán)境地改善,特別是跨國(guó)公司主導(dǎo)下地汽車合資企業(yè)不斷在全球同步推出適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)需求地新產(chǎn)品,將對(duì)未來市場(chǎng)起到巨大地推動(dòng)作用.預(yù)計(jì)今后10年15年中國(guó)將成長(zhǎng)成為全球最大汽車市場(chǎng),年銷量到達(dá)1700萬輛,汽車保有量超過1億輛.jLBHrnAILg近年來,跨國(guó)公司加快了進(jìn)軍中國(guó)市場(chǎng)地步伐

6、,推動(dòng)了國(guó)內(nèi)汽車業(yè)新一輪地兼并重組熱潮.預(yù)計(jì)今后跨國(guó)公司在中國(guó)地角逐將更加劇烈,國(guó)內(nèi)幾大汽車集團(tuán)依托跨國(guó)公司迅速擴(kuò)張,將進(jìn)一步加速各類整車和零部件生產(chǎn)企業(yè),特別是中小企業(yè)地兼并重組,市場(chǎng)格局劇烈變化,投資并購(gòu)時(shí)機(jī)將不斷涌現(xiàn).xHAQX74J0X目前,我國(guó)汽車行業(yè)地整體利潤(rùn)率高于國(guó)際水平,隨著產(chǎn)品價(jià)格地下降,這極可能降低行業(yè)利潤(rùn)率,但在價(jià)格下降地同時(shí),本錢、費(fèi)用也有較大下降空間,利潤(rùn)總額等總量指標(biāo)可能保持,甚至有可能提高.國(guó)家進(jìn)一步降低一些稅費(fèi),將為行業(yè)內(nèi)大局部企業(yè)提供降價(jià)空間,如果產(chǎn)銷規(guī)模能隨降價(jià)得到有效擴(kuò)大,規(guī)模效應(yīng)將發(fā)揮出來,會(huì)使行業(yè)效益保持在較好水平.同時(shí),零部件進(jìn)口關(guān)稅地下降,將使一些

7、廠家進(jìn)口本錢有所下降,對(duì)采用進(jìn)口部件較多地中高檔產(chǎn)品影響更加明顯.我國(guó)汽車行業(yè)中地轎車工業(yè)開展最為迅速,不僅產(chǎn)量地增長(zhǎng)高于整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量地增長(zhǎng),技術(shù)進(jìn)步地步伐也大大加快.從全行業(yè)來看,轎車、汽車零部件及配件企業(yè)地盈利能力處于行業(yè)領(lǐng)先水平,具有更高地投資回報(bào)率.LDAYtRyKfE四、中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地開展趨勢(shì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策取向 1中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地開展趨勢(shì) (1>預(yù)計(jì)今后10到15年中國(guó)將成為世界最大地汽車消費(fèi)國(guó).國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)說明,人均收入水平與汽車普及率存在顯著地相關(guān)關(guān)系.中國(guó)2002年地人均GDP是7972元,按官方匯率計(jì)算折合910多美元,而按世界銀行測(cè)算地購(gòu)置力平價(jià)方法那么接近4000美元

8、.在一些興旺城市、東南沿海相當(dāng)多地地區(qū),人均GDP按官方匯率計(jì)算也到達(dá)四五千美元,呈現(xiàn)明顯地即將進(jìn)入汽車社會(huì)地特征.預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)將在未來10年-15年成長(zhǎng)成為年銷量到達(dá)1700萬輛地全球最大汽車市場(chǎng).Zzz6ZB2Ltk (2>汽車地生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)將在未來相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)時(shí)期成為拉動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)地重要力量.汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)是涉及范圍最廣和涉及效果最大地產(chǎn)業(yè).對(duì)鋼鐵、有色金屬、橡膠、塑料、玻璃、涂料等原材料工業(yè),鑄、鍛、熱、焊、沖壓、機(jī)加工、油漆、電鍍、實(shí)驗(yàn)、檢測(cè)等設(shè)備制造業(yè),機(jī)械、電子、電器、化工、建材、輕工、紡織等配套產(chǎn)品和零部件,公路建設(shè)、能源工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)和效勞業(yè)等,都會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大需求,從而推動(dòng)這些產(chǎn)業(yè)地開

9、展.預(yù)計(jì)今后10年每年GDP增量,有17至16由汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)提供.dvzfvkwMI1 (3>中國(guó)有望成為世界汽車地制造中心.中國(guó)已初步形成相對(duì)齊全地汽車工業(yè)生產(chǎn)體系.這是中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)新開展地起點(diǎn).此外,中國(guó)開展汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)還有如下優(yōu)勢(shì)：一是大國(guó)地市場(chǎng)優(yōu)勢(shì)；二是勞動(dòng)力本錢優(yōu)勢(shì)；三是具有較強(qiáng)地制造業(yè)配套能力.預(yù)計(jì)在今后10到15年,中國(guó)有望成為世界重要地汽車制造基地之一.rqyn14ZNXI2中國(guó)今后開展汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地政策取向 (1>創(chuàng)造積極而充分地、有利于提高汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力地國(guó)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境.應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)各種類型企業(yè)特別是民營(yíng)企業(yè)地進(jìn)入,積極吸引外商直接投資特別是跨國(guó)公司直接投資,給予不同性質(zhì)地企業(yè)

10、以平等地市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)機(jī),通過優(yōu)勝劣汰地市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)過程,形成強(qiáng)有力地市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)結(jié)構(gòu),帶動(dòng)我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)和企業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力地根本提高.EmxvxOtOco (2>改制、重組是新時(shí)期我國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)組織地根本政策取向.在開放、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地根底上,推動(dòng)中國(guó)汽車企業(yè)地改制與重組.在改制過程中,要采取多種方式解決普遍存在地企業(yè)辦社會(huì)、人員過多、債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)重、社會(huì)保障體系不健全等歷史遺留問題,推進(jìn)企業(yè)產(chǎn)權(quán)地多元化,建立有效地公司治理機(jī)制.企業(yè)重組可以在以下方面重點(diǎn)推進(jìn)：一是整合汽車資源,以增量盤活存量,提高汽車工業(yè)資產(chǎn)利用率；二是進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)與汽車跨國(guó)公司地多方面合作；三是推動(dòng)國(guó)有企業(yè)與非國(guó)有企業(yè)之間地合作；四是對(duì)不同類型地

11、汽車產(chǎn)品采取不同地重組戰(zhàn)略；五是在強(qiáng)調(diào)放松進(jìn)入限制地同時(shí),要大力排除退出障礙；六是積極利用資本市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)重組.SixE2yXPq5 (3>有所為、有所不為.在開放中逐步融入全球汽車制造分工體系.改變汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈配置主要依賴國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和國(guó)內(nèi)資源地思路,分階段地逐步融入汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地全球采購(gòu)、制造、銷售、研發(fā)體系,并逐步向高段領(lǐng)域挺進(jìn).在整車上有進(jìn)有出,集中力量開展具有市場(chǎng)和資源優(yōu)勢(shì)地局部產(chǎn)品；要充分利用中國(guó)市場(chǎng)地多層次性以生產(chǎn)中低級(jí)別地轎車作為未來時(shí)期汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)地戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn),逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)和本錢優(yōu)勢(shì),在滿足國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)地同時(shí)占領(lǐng)周邊開展中國(guó)家；同時(shí)要利用現(xiàn)有地勞動(dòng)力優(yōu)勢(shì),扶植國(guó)內(nèi)有條件地零部件廠商要盡

12、快向全球供給商地角色轉(zhuǎn)變.6ewMyirQFLChina's auto industry development trend A, automobile industry globalization trend and automobile demand growth international pattern kavU42VRUsAuto industry globalization embodied in characteristics: one is the auto industry chain, including investment, production, procur

13、ement, sales and after-sales service, research and development and other main link increasingly global configuration. For example, the multinational companies in their establishment, keep r&d institution, to the target market take copy product approach to investing, and now are taking will each

14、functional activities and ability to global market distribution way. This has led to new specialization, especially the emergence of cooperative mode between enterprises with parts of vehicle assembly, parts of separation trend appears more and more multinational enterprise and vehicle assembly comp

15、onents in the contract as a link between enterprises of network organizational structure has become increasingly evident. The vehicle manufacturing enterprise parts of the global sourcing and the internationalization of spare parts industry, which blurs automotive products "national characteris

16、tics," has to typical globalization products. Two giant car between enterprise's large-scale restructuring, and formed a "6 + 3" pattern, 9 automobile group automobile production of world output has more than 80%. Car companies in the world of large-scale restructuring substantial

17、ly changed the traditional resource allocation methods, industrial competitive mode and industrial organization structure, and allows countries, especially developing countries before the auto industry development strategy and relevant policy is facing serious challenges. y6v3ALoS89文檔來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索The geog

18、raphical distribution of car output from view, euramerican developed country, generally there was a serious weakness in the market and developing countries, especially the situation in Asia countries. In Asia, South Korea, Thailand and China with its good growth and the huge potential, continue to b

19、e the highlight of the world automobile market. According to the forecast, from 2002 to 2021, global auto output will increase 11 million vehicles, the region will add more than 7 million cars, or 65 percent, and which will have half from China. M2ub6vSTnP文檔收集自網(wǎng)絡(luò)，僅用于個(gè)人學(xué)習(xí)Second, in recent years China

20、's automobile industry scale and market structure changes 0YujCfmUCwChina's auto industry after 40 years of development, has become an important industry of the national economy. With the development of economic levels rising and cars began to move into homes, China has become the world'

21、s most rapidly growing market, global car industry produce to the great influence. Annual accumulative total production car in 2002 than in 2001 vehicles, 325 38.49% growth from selling auto 324.8 million vehicles, than the same period in 2001, pool 37.1%, complete industrial added value, year-on-ye

22、ar growth of his pupils about 1515 billion yuan 60.94%. Automobile consumption has become pull 2002 the main force of economic growth. eUts8ZQVRd個(gè)人收集整理 勿做商業(yè)用途The legal person status of more than 120 auto manufacturers. In 2002, faw, dongfeng, saic wait for three major automotive group (57%> produ

23、ction concentration than in 2001, up 8 percentage points。 Chinese car because enterprise enters and competition is intense, sales of the top 3 places in Shanghai Volkswagen, faw Volkswagen and Shanghai gm of total sales than 2001 years ago single-month three market share fell 6.8 percentage points。

24、Other kinds of car general production concentration than 2001 also have certain degree of decline. Just a single enterprise scale, China's automotive industry's top four faw, dongfeng, saic, changan automobile production on four big group in 30 million - ability between 60 million vehicles,

25、scale economic benefit began to appear. Nonetheless, the automobile production enterprise with world-class compared, China's automotive industry enterprise's remained small. sQsAEJkW5T文檔收集自網(wǎng)絡(luò)，僅用于個(gè)人學(xué)習(xí)Fierce market competition, a direct result of the price of cars is to make continued to decli

26、ne, and finally achieve reasonable price。 2 it is competitive field, including not only expanded product price, quality, performance, but also related to marketing, after-sale service, market strain capacity, etc。 Three is technological progress and product research and development will be the focus

27、 of competition. Through the full and effective competition of enterprises, unstoppable, and generally will be pushing the healthy growth of the industry's leading power. GMsIasNXkA個(gè)人收集整理 勿做商業(yè)用途Third, China's automotive industry market space, investment opportunities and profit outlook TIrRG

28、chYzgFuture period with the influence of Chinese auto demand market price and income and consumption structure, auto loan, the improvement in consumption environment, especially transnational company leading the car under joint venture unceasingly in the global synchronous launch of new products to

29、meet market demand for future market, will greatly push forward. The following 10 years - 15 years China will become the world's largest car market, the annual sales of $17 million vehicles, more than 1 million cars auto possession. 7EqZcWLZNX個(gè)人收集整理 勿做商業(yè)用途In recent years, multinational companies

30、 to speed up the pace of the foray into China market, promote the domestic auto industry a new round of m&a boom. Multinational companies in China in the future is expected to take place more intense, the domestic several big automotive group relying on multinational company is rapid and outspre

31、ad, will further accelerate all kinds of vehicle and parts production enterprises, especially smes, market structure of m&a drastic change, investment opportunities will emerge. Merger lzq7IGf02E文檔來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索At present, China's auto industry's overall profitability higher than international

32、level, as the price of a product, which is likely to reduce down in price, but industry profit rate dropping, costs, expenses also have larger space, total profit dropped gross index such as likely to maintain, there might even improve. Countries further reduce some taxes, will provide for the major

33、ity of enterprises within the industry production and price space, if price is effectively with size can expand, scale effect will play out, can make the industry maintain a good level of efficiency. Meanwhile, parts of the import tariffs dropped, will make some manufacturers to import costs decline

34、d, imported parts more upscale product effect more apparent. The car industry in China's automobile industry most rapid development, not only output growth above the whole car industry product output growth, technology progress also greatly accelerated. Judging from the industry, cars, auto part

35、s and accessories enterprise profitability in industry leading level, and has a higher return on investment. zvpgeqJ1hk個(gè)人收集整理 勿做商業(yè)用途Fourth, the development trend of China's auto industry and the industrial policy orientation NrpoJac3v11. The development trend of China's automobile industry 1

36、nowfTG4KI(1> is expected in the next 10 to 15 years, China will become the world's largest car shoppers. International experience shows that per capita income level and automobile penetration rate significantly correlated. China's per capita GDP in 2002, according to official 7972 yuan is

37、 the exchange rates more than $910 converted according to the world bank, and the PPP methods measuring is close to $4,000. In some developed city, southeast coastal quite a number of areas, according to the official exchange rate per capita GDP also reached four or five thousand dollars, calculated

38、 the obvious characteristics of going into the car society. Expect China will in the next 10 years - 15 years in annual sales growth to 17m become the world's largest car market bus. fjnFLDa5Zo資料個(gè)人收集整理，勿做商業(yè)用途(2> of automobile production and consumption in the future will be pulled very long p

39、eriod of China's economic growth important strength. The car industry is the most widely affected the scope of the biggest industry and spread effect. For steel, nonferrous metal, rubber, plastic, glass, coating and other raw materials industry, casting, forging, hot, welding, stamping, machinin

40、g, paint, electroplating, test and inspection equipment manufacturing industry, machinery, electronics, electrical appliances, chemical industry, building materials, light industry, textile and other supporting products and components, highway construction, energy industry, transportation industry a

41、nd service industry and so on, can produce huge demand, so as to promote the development of the industry. Each year are expected to the next 10 years, have 1 / GDP increment by seven to 1/6 provide auto industry. tfnNhnE6e5資料個(gè)人收集整理，勿做商業(yè)用途(3> China is expected to become the world automobile manufa

42、cturing center. China has initially formed relatively complete automobile industrial production system. This is the new development of China's automobile industry begins. In addition, the development of the car industry in China and the following advantages: one is the power market advantages。 2

43、 it is labor cost advantage。 Three is strong manufacturing supporting ability. Expected over the next 10 to 15 years, China is expected to become the world's important auto manufacturing one of base. HbmVN777sL文檔來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索2. The future development of China automobile industry policy orientation V7l

44、4jRB8Hs(1> create positive and full, to improve the international competitiveness of the automotive industry domestic competition environment. Should encourage various type enterprise especially private enterprise's into, and actively attract foreign direct investment, especially transnationa

45、l corporations, direct investment, given the different natures of the enterprise with equal opportunity, through market competition market competition of the survival of the fittest, forming process the powerful market competition structure, leading enterprises and auto industry in our country the f

46、undamental improve the international competitiveness. 83lcPA59W9文檔來自于網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索(2> restructuring, reorganization is a new period of China's automobile industry organization basic policy orientation. In the open, competitive, and on the basis of Chinese auto enterprise restructuring push with restru

47、cturing. In the restructuring, to adopt various ways to solve widespread enterprise do social, personnel overmuch, debt burden, social security system and the imperfect problems left over by history, promote enterprise property of diversification, the establishment of effective corporate governance mechanism. Corporate restructuring can focus on in the following respects: one is th