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1、14 August 2019THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE'S (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF(THE "PRC")AND MACAO)Gradual international and offshore recovery visible in stronger Q2 order intake and well services activity growthBut the North American shale gale lacks mo

2、mentum, and some consensus views on subsea/SURF look optimisticWe update forecasts and TPs post Q2; upgrade SPM to Buy; maintain Buy on FTI and the Big 3 US names; prefer SLBuuuPost Q2 earnings, we revisit the six main European and US OFS stocks; these account for the majority of sector market cap i

3、n their respective regions, but reflect different drivers. The EU names saw strong order intake, with an average book-to-bill of over 2x key questions are whether this is a bubble or a trend, and how (and when) it will impact earnings. The Big 3 US stocks mixed lacklustre growth and oversupply in No

4、rth America with gradual international and offshore recovery: the extent to which this mix supports margin upside is key for any potential re-rating. Our preferred names have good exposure to international growth (as reflected in our above-consensus estimates), self-help potential, and attractive va

5、luations.Key changes: (1) upgrade SPM to Buy from Hold, (2) take a more cautious view on subsea/offshore margins, which we see recovering to 2018 levels by 2022e,(3) despite recent order intake, move subsea book-to-bill slightly lower to around 1x over 2020-22e, and (4) cut our top line and margin f

6、orecasts for the Big 3 US names, reflecting the North American market. The resulting TP changes are shown in the table below. We are below consensus for FTI and SUBC for 2020/2021e, above for SPM, and above for SLB and HAL.Our investment stance: we like the cycle leverage (total net income growth of

7、 over 80% for 2019-21e) and improving cash-flow generation of the Big 3 US names; our preferred stock is SLB (Buy, TP USD53) due to its high international exposure and 5.7% dividend yield. In Europe, we prefer SPM (Buy, TP EUR5.10) due to its Onshore self-help, new order intake potential and discoun

8、ted valuation; and maintain our Buy on FTI (TP USD29/EUR26.10), supported by its long-term backlog cover and market share growth potential in subsea/SURF. Conversely, we see risks to 2020e consensus with SUBC (Hold, TP NOK90) due to a higher than average need (versuspeers) for new orders to fill up

9、vessel utilisation in the medium term. Tarek Soliman*, CFA AnalystHSBC Bank plc tarek.soliman+44 20 3268 5528Abhishek Kumar* AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedabhishek kumarhsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2753David Phillips*Head of Equity Research, Developed EuropeHSBC Bank plc

10、 david.1.phillips+44 20 7991 7558Anshak Singhal* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsGlobal Oilfield Services Key changes to our ratings and estimatesCurrent price TP OldNew Rating OldNewImpl

11、ied upside/downsideMarket cap(USDm)EV/EBITDA 2019e (x)EV/EBITDA 2020e (x)PE 2019e (x)PE 2020e (x)CompanyTickerCurrencyHalliburtonHAL USUSD19.9336.0034.00BuyBuy70.6%17,4510 9TechnipFMCFTI USUSD25 2628.0029.00BuyBuy14.8%11,2785.66.316.116.8SaipemSPM IMEUR4.134.805.10HoldBuy23.4%4,6794.44.22

12、3.418.7Note: Priced as of close at 8 August 2019. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Ba

13、nk plcView HSBC Global Research at:Subsea 7SUBC NO NOK88 28100.0090.00HoldHold1 9%2,96026 9TechnipFMCFTI FPEUR22.0725.0026.10BuyBuy18 3%11,0375.66.316.116.8Baker HughesBHGE US USD24.1431.0031.00BuyBuy28.4%12,4657.86.335.715.7SchlumbergerSLB USUSD35 2154.0053.00BuyBuy50 5%48,6968.16.823.217

14、.1Global Oilfield ServicesPlaying a constrained cycleEquitiesEnergy Equipment & ServicesGlobal獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、4、行研報(bào)告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群。Equities Energy Equipment & Services14 August 2019ContentsExecutive summary4A mixed industry backdropTrying to keep up wi

15、th crude tracking EU vs US OFSThe challenge of the 3Cs Customer Capital ConstraintOilfield services valuation comparisons over the cycleOur stock views upgrade SPM to Buy (from Hold)HSBC Global Oil & Gas Research Library55681416CompaniesNorth American OFS SLB, HAL, BHGEOur investment view Buy th

16、e Big 3 (still); preferred name SLBEuropean OFS will it have to run just to stand still in 2020?The stocks opportunities despite the offshore outlook1920233540Disclosure appendix52Disclaimer552Equities Energy Equipment & Services14 August 2019The Q2 2019 season in the rear view mirror: selected

17、outlook commentsCompanyOutlook CommentsEventSUBC“.tendering and early engagement teams are busy with new projects. But as expected, these are taking time to convert into firm sign contract .expecting higher order intake in the second part of this year, from the indication we have from clients”2Q 201

18、9 ResultNOVNOV continues to face challenging cross-currents as it navigates a generational oilfield downturn. International and offshore markets are exhibiting growth, while North America land markets are declining as customers slash spending. The increased emphasis on capital discipline from the cu

19、stomer base is driving them to do more with less, and it has become clear in 2Q that this approach is not going away anytime soon.2Q 2019 ResultFTS.seeing softer demand in second half of the year, still expect to generate cash flow of approximately $100 million in2019subsequent to June 30 the Compan

20、y stacked one fleet leaving 20 fleets active today. However, with softening demand in the second half of 2019, the Company currently expects to stack two to three additional fleets in the third quarter2Q 2019 ResultForum Energy Tech.already experiencing increasing levels of inquiries from internatio

21、nal and offshore customers.expect these inquiries to translate into orders across our broad product portfolio. In addition, in the US where our sales are primarily short cycle consumable items.believe the current destocking and cannibalization by our customers is unsustainable.2Q 2019 ResultUS Silic

22、a Holdings.volume will increase by 10% sequentially in the 3Q 2019 (grew 2% sequentially in 2Q as disruption due to flooding in Mid-west- 2 plants offline for 2 months), and expecting softening in the 4Q 2019 as budgets are stretched and activity levels decline.Pricing weakness in the Permian basin,

23、 but some of that pressure may be offset by the rebound in Northern White sand pricing.2Q 2019 ResultDril Quip.use our cash position and clean balance sheet to support expected favourable order activity, make strategic investments where appropriate, and opportunistically buy back shares. Business tr

24、ansformation toize profitability through an array of cost saving initiatives.Company has approximately doubled its addressable subsea tree market.2Q 2019 ResultFluorThese charges (USD714m of pre-tax charges in 2Q 2019) reflect FLR efforts over the past few months to meet with clients, subcontractors

25、, suppliers and our project teams to evaluate and address the status of our current projects. Company is withdrawing all previously issued earnings per share guidance for 2019.2Q 2019 ResultSource: Company Data3LamprellDespite the improving outlook, LAM will not see a year on year improvement in the

26、 financial performance of the business dueTrading Update to a combination of the previously mentioned delays in contract awards and the retention of capability to execute the expected2019 YTD pipeline of new business.Core LabWhile operators continue to focus on generating FCF and returns on investme

27、nt, optimizing well completions remain a2Q 2019 Resultsignificant lever in growing field investment returns while managing within their capital budgets. As a result, Core projects US onshore completion activity to be flat sequentially. Core would expect US energetic sales to exceed the rate of compl

28、etion activity (in 3Q), as they did in 2Q 2019TecnicasPositive medium-term outlook for awards on the basis of a dynamic and high pipeline of opportunities consistently maintained2Q 2019 Resultabove USD 40 billion.bidding in more cost-plus schemes, which diversify risks and improve delivery. It also

29、allows Tecnicas to focus on operational improvements and cost reductions that will protect our profitabilityOceaneeringIn 3Q 2019, expecting a slight improvement in our overall operating results on moderately higher revenue. Expect declines in 2Q 2019 Resultoperating contribution from the ROV segmen

30、t on flat activity levels due to a change in operating mix, a decline in profitability in Subsea Products, due to a greater proportion of segment revenue coming from manufacturing, and relatively flat results in the Subsea Projects and Asset Integrity segments. Advanced Technologies, OII expect reve

31、nue to increase and operating margins to improve to the low double-digit rangeLiberty OFSOperators are managing activity to not exceed their announced budgets and therefore the frac market will most likely2Q 2019 Resultexperience utilization challenges in 4Q 2019. There continues to be an oversupply

32、 of frac fleets in the market which is holding down pricing. We would not expect pricing to improve until supply of actively staffed frac equipment balances with demand.MDRLooking ahead, revenue opportupipeline remains near a historic high and, more specifically, MDR is seeing steady upward2Q 2019 R

33、esultmomentum in a number of key areas. For example, in the strategic area of FEED, awards through the first half of 2019 are already more than double what MDR won in all of 2018 in terms of both man-hours and dollar valueSPM“The subsea sector is showing encouraging signs, although a full recovery i

34、s yet to materialize. E&C onshore significantly2Q 2019 Resultimproved its adjusted EBITDA margin, which proves the effectiveness of our continued turnaround. SPM is on track to deliver the midterm margin targetmaintain the mid-single-digit as the target”FTI“.we continue to see strong order activ

35、ity. The absolute value will really be a function of 1 or 2 very large awards. There's a2Q 2019 Resultfew billion dollar plus Subsea awards that are out there right now that could come in the second half of the year or in the beginning or the first half of 2020.expect 2020 utilization or absorpt

36、ion of our manufacturing footprint to be greater than 2019 given the success that we've had in the first half of the year and our outlook.expect that 2019 isthe trough for Subsea margins”Equities Energy Equipment & Services14 August 2019Executive summaryAnother North American shale slowdown

37、impacts growth and sentiment but somewhat offset by offshore and international activityGood order intake for onshore/offshore E&C, especially from LNG, but we think pace is unlikely to be sustained into H2 2019 and 2020Opportunities from sector de-rating we upgrade SPM to Buy, remain Buy on FTI

38、and on Big 3 US names; preferred name SLBuuuPlaying a constrained cycleOilfield services customers are still careful over investment, some market segments remain oversupplied, and after a 20% fall, oil prices are in official bear market territory. For many, pricing and margin upside continue to be n

39、ext years story. But there is still growth, as evidenced by the 3x book-to-bill at FTI and SPM, and we see IOC capex up 30% (versus 2017) by 2021/22e. We also note de-risking from the current equity market correction, with the sector now around 30% below H1 2014 on P/B, EV/sales, EV/backlog (but not

40、 EV/EBITDA or P/E).For FTI, SPM, SUBC, we see good onshore E&C prospects, given growth in gas infrastructure spend, but do not see much over 1x book-to-bill for offshore. We see risks of consensus over- optimism with subsea, given industry pricing and profit recognition timing (most obvious with

41、 SUBC, least with SPM). On average, we raise EBITDA by 8% for 2019e but lower it by 2% for 2020e and 5% for 2021e. Our target prices are higher for SPM and FTI, but lower for SUBC. Versus consensus, we are below for FTI/SUBC, but above for SPM. Our preferred name is SPM (Buy, TP EUR5.10), supported

42、by self-help, order intake potential, and undemanding valuations.For BHGE, HAL, SLB, North America continues to under-deliver on margins, but with growth from offshore/international and a focus on returns, we raise our free cash flow for the Big 3 for the first time since early 2018. We like the cyc

43、le leverage with total net income growth of over 80% by 2021e. On average, our Big 3 EPS are down by 4% for 2019e, 11% for 2020e, and 12% for 2021e (target prices are 3% lower); we are ahead of consensus for SLB and HAL; our preferred name is SLB (Buy, TP USD53) due to its international exposure and

44、 5.7% yield.Multiple convergence: EV/EBITDA for the major OFS stocks, 2014-present25.020.015.010.05.00.0Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19SLBHALBHGEFTISPMSUBCSource: Refinitiv Datastream; based on consensus data for the Big 3 US = SLB, H

45、AL, BHGE, Big 3 EU = FTI, SPM, SUBC4Equities Energy Equipment & Services14 August 2019A mixed industry backdropSector struggling to outperform crude, with headwinds from customer capital constraint, oversupply, commodity volatilityBut international/offshore recovery increasingly evident, includi

46、ng exploration, gas/LNG infrastructure, and selected deepwaterUpdating forecasts to reflect North American outlook, recent E&C order intake, and realistic view on profit recognitionuuuTrying to keep up with crude tracking EU vs US OFSThe weaker second half of 2018 saw the largest OFS names under

47、perform (in share price terms) crude oil prices their main commodity lead indicator. This year so far has proved only slightly better, but has seen a clear split between the 3 main EU-listed OFS names (which have outperformed crude oil), and the Big 3 US OFS names (which have not). In fact the US na

48、mes (on average across SLB, HAL and BHGE) only slightly outperformed crude until February, and have underperformed ever since; investor sentiment around this sector remains mixed.Within this mix there have been clear shifts of relative performance, with SPM outperforming FTI by 24% over Q1 (but FTI

49、reversing this relative shift by 17% over Q2), and SLB outperforming HAL by 11% in Q1 (on the way up) and by 14% in Q2 (on the way down). On a YTD basis, FTI and SPM are even (up 25%), SLB is roughly flat, and HAL is down over 20%.Keeping up with crude share prices vs. Brent for the Big 3 US/EU OFS

50、(YTD, in USD)As a sector, OFS has mostly failed to keep pace with crude oil prices0.90.8Jan-19Feb-19BRENTMar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Subsea Avg.Aug-19Big 3 US Avg.Source: Refinitiv Datastream; Big 3 US = SLB, HAL, BHGE, Big 3 EU = FTI, SPM, SUBCA key theme we aim to address in th

51、is report is whether given the recent equity market and crude oil sell-off any future OFS share price recovery is likely to be broad-based or selective. Given the changing directions of activity in North America versus International (and offshore versus onshore) we believe fundamental differences ma

52、y prove more important, but lower valuations across the entire sector have somewhat de-risked many names (hence our incrementally more positive stance in this report upgrading SPM to Buy from Hold, alongside our other Buys of FTI in Europe, and SLB, HAL and BHGE in the US).The post market sell-off d

53、ilemma broad based rebound or selective?5Equities Energy Equipment & Services14 August 2019The challenge of the 3Cs Customer Capital ConstraintSetting the spending scene supported by improved operator economics and cash flows, we see IOC capex rising to slightly over USD135bn by 2021/22e, some 3

54、0% above the trough in 2017, but still 33% below the peaks of 2013/14. Of this, we see upstream capex rising to overUSD100bn by 2021/22e, some 27% above the trough but still >40% below the previous peak.See IOC capex 30% above trough levels by 2021/22eCapex and free cash flow (USDm), major oils (

55、2006-2021e)130250110902007015050100302006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022eFCF (+ve/-ve)Cash flowCapex + full dividendBrent price (USD/b, RHS)Source: Company data, HSBC estimates from 2019eNorth America overtaken by international/offshore this capex t

56、rend covers a number ofimportant moving parts: US/North American LTO (light tight oil) and natural gas shale activity, international and offshore well-related activity, and onshore/offshore new capital project awards.Recent quarterly results have already shown signs of a “growth reversal” between North American markets (dominated by shale / LTO) and elsewhere. Challenges for shale/LTO operators include parent/child well interference (i.e.: wells too close together), infrastructure constraints (e.g.: pipelines, gas offtake), and cha