地理類理解正在變化的星球第四章

1、第四章 100億人在地球上如何生存和分布How and Where Will 10 Billion People Live on Earth? nWe live in the century of the city. In 2008, humanity crossed a milestone as it marked the first time that more people lived in urban areas than any other type of settlement. The United Nations forecasts that most of the global

2、 population growth in the coming decades will occur in urban areas.n我們生活在城市的時代。2008年，人類跨越了一個里程碑，它標(biāo)志著居住在城市范圍的人數(shù)第一次超過了其他地區(qū)。美國預(yù)測未來10年全球大部分人口增長將會發(fā)生在城市地區(qū) 。nWorld population is expected to increase by 1 billion to 5 billion between 2007 and 2050 (UN, 2009), yielding a global total of between 7.9 and 12 bi

3、llion people by 2050 depending on fertility and mortality trends (Figure 4.1).n根據(jù)人口出生率和死亡率趨勢預(yù)測，在2005年到2050年間世界人口將增長10億50億人（UN,2009）,因此2050年世界總?cè)丝趯⑦_到79億120億人。（圖4.1）nUnder the medium-growth scenario, world population will be almost 10 billion by 2050, with an estimated 3.1 billion new urban dwellers. N

4、otwithstanding uncertainties around the effect of HIV/AIDS and economic downturns on mortality and urban migration, the current scale of urbanization is unparalleled in history (Cohen, 2004). n在中速增長模擬情景中，2050年世界總?cè)丝跀?shù)將接近100億，其中估計有31億新城市居民。盡管HIV/AIDS和經(jīng)濟衰退對死亡率和城市遷移的影響具有不確定性，但是目前的城市化規(guī)模仍是史無前例的（Cohen,2004）

5、nAn urbanizing global population has significant consequencespotentially positive as well as negativefor resource use, environmental sustainability, and ultimately, the well-being of humanity. The concentration of people and resources in dense urban settlements can reduce the energy consumed for bui

6、ldings and transportation and can lower carbon dioxide emissions (NRC, 2009). Urban areas also provide economic opportunities and, in many places, are the engines of economic growth. 世界人口城市化將對資源利用、環(huán)境可持續(xù)和人類福祉產(chǎn)生顯著的影響，可能是積極的，也可能是消極的。人口和資源在密集城市區(qū)域的集中能夠減少建筑和交通的能源消耗、降低二氧化碳的排放。城市區(qū)域也能提供經(jīng)濟發(fā)展機會，在許多地方，城市是經(jīng)濟增長的引

7、擎。 nMost urban population growth will be concentrated in the developing world, particularly in Africa and Asia. Historically, urbanization has taken place primarily in more developed regions. In 1990, the populations of Europe, North America, Latin America, and Oceania were already more than 70 perc

8、ent urban (Figure 4.2). In contrast, even by 2010, the urban population of Africa will barely approach 40 percent and Asias urban population will be less than half of the total population. n大部分的城市人口增長將集中在發(fā)展中國家，特別是非洲和亞洲。歷史上城市化最早發(fā)生在發(fā)達地區(qū)。1990年，歐洲、北美、拉美和大洋洲的城市人口比重均超過70%（圖4.2）。而直到2010年，非洲的城市人口比重也僅僅接近40%，

9、亞洲的城市人口也不到總?cè)丝诘囊话?。圖4.2 19502050年不同區(qū)域的城市人口比重資料來源：聯(lián)合國nIn addition to an urbanizing population, globally, the number of households is growing faster than population (Liu et al., 2003). In the United States, the average household size has been steadily declining, from 5.5 in 1850 to 4.5 in 1915 to 2.56 i

10、n 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). In particular, the proportion of the population living in single-person households has increased significantly, from 7.7 percent in 1940 to 25.8 percent in 2000. n除了人口城市化之外，全球家庭數(shù)量的增速也超過了人口增速。在美國，平均家庭構(gòu)成人數(shù)一直持續(xù)下降，由1850年的5.5人下降至1915年的4.5人，2008年更下降至2.56人。其中單身家庭人口占總?cè)丝诘谋戎?/p>

11、顯著上升，從1940年的7.7%上升至2000年的25.8%。nThe resulting increase in the number of households relative to population growth poses significant threats to biodiversity and natural resources because per capita consumption of resources is more closely aligned with the number of households than with the population

12、per se (Liu et al., 2003). Not only does each household maintain its own residence, but total per capita living space has been increasing in many countries. In the United States, the average size of single-family homes increased from 1,500 ft2 (139 m2) in 1970 to 2,519 ft2 (234 m2) in 2008, an incre

13、ase of more than 60 percent (U.S. Census Bureau, 2004). Similarly, in China, per capita residential living space has tripled over a 27-year period, from 8.1 m2 in 1978 to 26 m2 in 2005(National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2009). n隨之引起的和人口增長有關(guān)的家庭數(shù)量增長嚴重威脅到生物多樣性和自然資源，因為相比人口數(shù)量，人均資源消耗量和家庭數(shù)量更為密切。不僅每個家庭

14、會擁有自己的住所，而且許多國家的人均居住面積一直在增加。在美國，單身家庭的平均居住面積由1970年的139平方米增加至2008年的234平方米，增長了60%以上。同樣在中國，人均居住面積在27年時間里增長了2倍，從1978年的8.1平方米增加到2005年的26平方米。nIt follows that we need to understand how 10 billion people will be allocated among households and distributed geographically across the world over the next 40 years

15、. What processes create diverse patterns of human settlement? How is accelerating urbanization changing social, environmental, and economic conditions? n因此我們需要了解未來40年這100億人在不同類型的家庭中如何分配，在全世界不同地域如何分布，哪些進程創(chuàng)造了人類聚居區(qū)域的多樣化格局，加速城市化如何改變社會、環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟條件。nThe environmental challenges, resource requirements, infrast

16、ructure needs, energy demands, and governance issues associated with the unfolding growth in urban population raise fundamental, policy-relevant questionsand pose unprecedented opportunities for moving toward sustainabilitythat cannot be ignored as society navigates the urbanizing world of the 21st

17、century.n環(huán)境挑戰(zhàn)、資源需求、基本設(shè)施需求、能源需求以及城市增長人口的管理向人們提出了基本的、政策性問題，同時也提供了前所未有的實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的機遇，這是社會在走向21世紀城市化世界的過程中不可避免的。 nThus, one of the biggest challenges facing humanity is how and where 10 billion people will live so as to reduce their environmental footprint. Given that most of these 10 billion people will l

18、ive in cities, what are the consequences of an urbanizing Earth, and how can we reduce the negative impacts, while enhancing the positive impacts.n因此，人類面臨的最大的困難之一是100億人在地球上如何生存和分布才能縮小他們的環(huán)境足跡；如果這100億人中大部分人居住在城市，那么城市化的地球?qū)a(chǎn)生什么后果；怎樣才能降低其負面效應(yīng)，同時增強其積極影響。地理科學(xué)的作用（Role of geographical sciences ）nThe study o

19、f human settlements is inherently an investigation of humanenvironment interactions, which requires spatially explicit data and analysis, an understanding of the interaction among places and across scales, and knowledge of the trade-offs among different land uses. n人類聚集區(qū)研究本質(zhì)上是人與環(huán)境交互關(guān)系的調(diào)查，它需要精確的空間數(shù)據(jù)與

20、分析、對不同地域與尺度的人與環(huán)境關(guān)系的理解，以及對不同用地均衡的認識。nStudies of the city, urban growth, urban-land-use theory, and the development of human settlements all have long traditions in the geographical sciences (Marsh, 1864). Much of the work on urban areas, their form and function in urban planning, urban economics, urb

21、an geography, and urban sociology, has drawn on the spatial land-use models of von Thnen (1826/1966), Burgess (1925), Muth (1961), Alonso (1964), and others.n城市研究、城市發(fā)展研究、城市土地利用理論研究和人居環(huán)境發(fā)展研究等有很悠久的地理傳統(tǒng)。城市規(guī)劃、城市經(jīng)濟學(xué)、城市地理學(xué)和城市社會學(xué)有關(guān)城市形態(tài)和功能的許多研究都曾引用Thnen (1826/1966), Burgess (1925), Muth (1961), Alonso (1964

22、)及其他地理學(xué)者的土地利用空間模型。nAlthough cities have always depended on complex linkages with their immediate surroundings, as well as with more distant places, the speed, reach, and impact of these interconnections have become truly global, and will continue to be so. Understanding the processes and consequence

23、s of accelerating urbanization therefore requires tracing the web of connections and interactions that link people, places, and processes together. n盡管城市通常依賴于何周邊區(qū)域的復(fù)雜聯(lián)系，但是城市間相互作用的速度、范圍和影響力已經(jīng)達到了全球化，未來也將如此。因此，理解加速城市化的進程和結(jié)果需要追蹤將人、地方、過程聯(lián)系在一起的交互作用網(wǎng)絡(luò)。n These linkages, which span environmental, cultural, s

24、ocial, economic, and political realms, mean that, for example, urbanization in one location affects demand for resources or waste disposal in another.n n這些聯(lián)系跨越了環(huán)境、人文、社會、經(jīng)濟和政治領(lǐng)域，例如，一個地方的城市化將會影響到另一個地方的資源需求和污染物處理。nThe geographical sciences have a long tradition of examining where, within urban areas, v

25、arious kinds of people live, of investigating the processes that help to create such patterns, and of assessing the implications of residential patterning for variation in access to various opportunities such as jobs, medical care, or recreation. n地理學(xué)長期致力于調(diào)查不同屬性的人群居住在城市內(nèi)部哪個區(qū)域，研究產(chǎn)生這樣的居住格局的過程和機制，評價伴隨各

26、種設(shè)施如就業(yè)機會、醫(yī)療設(shè)施、娛樂設(shè)施的不同可達性而形成的各種居住模式的內(nèi)在含義。nSince the 1960s, for example, studies have documented the ways in which urban settlements are distinguished by segregation along the lines of stage in the life course (e.g., singles, couples without children, families with children, and so on), socioeconomic

27、status, and race and ethnicity. The spatial patterning of these dimensions is different in different regions of the world (Abu-Lughod, 1969), but in every place, the patterns of where people live within cities are the outcome of a mix of public policies and household preferences. n例如，1960年以來的研究已證明城市

28、居住區(qū)會根據(jù)不同的家庭生命周期（如單身、新婚夫婦、滿巢期、空巢期等）、社會經(jīng)濟學(xué)狀況、種族產(chǎn)生分異。這個維度上的空間格局在不同地方有所差異，但是每個城市的內(nèi)部空間居住格局都是公共政策和家庭偏好共同作用的結(jié)果。nModern geographical approaches and methods are generating insights into urban land-use patterns, from intracity to regional and global scales. The routine collection of imagery for most of Earths

29、 land areas by satellites provides an invaluable historical record covering more than three decades. n現(xiàn)代地理學(xué)的研究途徑和方法更易于審視城市內(nèi)部、區(qū)域和全球尺度的城市土地利用模式。遙感衛(wèi)星影像的積累為地球上大多數(shù)陸地區(qū)域提供了超過30年的寶貴歷史記錄。nThis revolutionary development makes it possible to monitor human modification and urbanization of Earths surface across

30、a range of spatial resolution, from 1 m to the global scale (Sawaya et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004). Satellites such as Terra, Aqua, Landsat, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission all provide data on the urban environment (Box 4.1). n這個革命性的技術(shù)發(fā)展使人們有可能檢測基于不同空間分辨率的人類活動對地球的改變和地球表層的城市化，從1m以下分辨率到全球尺度皆

31、可（ Sawaya et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004 ）。 Terra, Aqua, Landsat, and TRMM等衛(wèi)星均可提供城市環(huán)境相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)（專欄4.1）專欄4.1 人類聚居區(qū)方面的遙感應(yīng)用Remote Sensing Applications Related to Human Settlements nThe longest continuous observations of Earth are available through the Landsat Program, which has remotely monitored urban ar

32、eas and urban growth since 1972. From the rate and magnitude of urban expansion, to population density and the global distribution of nighttime lights, satellite data have provided baseline information about the characteristics and geographical distribution of human settlements around the world. n對地

33、球最長的連續(xù)觀察是地球資源探測計劃（ LandsatProgram），它從1972年起就開始監(jiān)測城市區(qū)域及其發(fā)展。從城市擴張的速度和規(guī)模，到人口密度和全球夜間燈光分布，衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)提供了有關(guān)世界人口聚居區(qū)特征和地理分布的基礎(chǔ)信息。專欄4.1 人類聚居區(qū)方面的遙感應(yīng)用Remote Sensing Applications Related to Human SettlementsnThe long temporal record of satellite data is producing a clearer picture of the evolution of urban form (Herold

34、 et al., 2003; Seto and Fragkias, 2005), the impact of cities on prime agricultural land (Seto et al., 2000; Imhoff et al., 2004a), and the footprint of urban areas on local and global climate (Voogt and Oke, 2003; Jin et al., 2005; Shepherd, 2005). Data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectror

35、adiometer (MODIS) provide daily global coverage at 500-m to 1-km spatial resolution on urban characteristics such as land cover, surface albedo, aerosols, and land surface “skin” temperature (Engel-Cox et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2004). n長時間的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)記錄繪制了城市形態(tài)演變的清晰地圖(Herold et al., 2003; Seto and Fragkias

36、, 2005), 城市對原農(nóng)業(yè)用地的沖擊(Seto et al., 2000; Imhoff et al., 2004a), 以及城市地區(qū)對當(dāng)?shù)氐臎_擊和全球氣候的影響足跡(Voogt and Oke, 2003; Jin et al., 2005; Shepherd, 2005). MODIS數(shù)據(jù)提供了覆蓋全球的每一天的城市特征數(shù)據(jù)，如土地覆蓋、地表反照率、氣溶膠以及地表溫度，其空間分辨率為500米和1000米。專欄4.1 人類聚居區(qū)方面的遙感應(yīng)用Remote Sensing Applications Related to Human Settlementsn Since 1992, the

37、Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) has recorded low levels of visible and near-infrared radiance at night, making it possible to detect lights from cities, towns, and industrial sites (see Figure) (Small et al., 2005; Amaral et al., 2006). Below are exam

38、ples of urban applications using satellite remote sensing data. n1992年，DMSP/OLS系統(tǒng)記錄了夜間的低頻可見光和近紅外輻射，使人們能夠探測城市、鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)和工業(yè)區(qū)德燈光（圖4.3） (Small et al., 2005; Amaral et al., 2006)。表4.1為遙感衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)在城市方面的應(yīng)用舉例。圖4.3 北美夜間燈光分布資料來源：全國地圖在線數(shù)據(jù)庫，/atlasftp.html # nitelti(2010-01-20)衛(wèi)星分辨率重訪周期應(yīng)用舉例Landsat15-60米

39、18天城市形態(tài)(Herold et al.2003;Seto and Fragkias,2005)城市發(fā)展和農(nóng)用地流失(Seto et al., 2000) MODIS250-1000米16天城市天氣質(zhì)量(Engel-Cox et al., 2004)；城市區(qū)域制圖(Doll et al., 2001; Schneider et al., 2003)城市氣候?qū)χ脖缓虻淖阚E (Zhang et al., 2004) ASTER15-30米16天城市土地覆蓋 (Netzband and Stefanov, 2004)MISR250-275米16天氣溶膠光學(xué)厚度 (Jiang et al., 200

40、7)；城市土地覆蓋(Doll et al., 2001)AVHRR1100米9天城市熱島效應(yīng) (Gallo et al., 1993)城市地表溫度(Dousset and Gourmelon, 2003) SPOT2.5-20米26天城市土地覆蓋(Dousset and Gourmelon, 2003)；城市監(jiān)測(Baraldi and Parmiggiani, 1990) DMSP/OLS560-2700米1天2次人口測算 (Amaral et al., 2006)；城市范圍(Small et al., 2005)；城市能源消耗； (Elvidge et al., 1997）表4.1 主要衛(wèi)

41、星的探測指標(biāo)nThe growing inventory of geographically indexed data makes it possible to combine satellite images with census and other information to develop analytically useful maps that show the distribution of human population around the world. For example, the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project has gen

42、erated a globally consistent and spatially explicit dataset of urban population distribution. n地理索引數(shù)據(jù)庫存的不斷增加使人們有可能將衛(wèi)星影像和普查數(shù)據(jù)等各種信息結(jié)合，得到展示世界人口分布的重要分析地圖。例如，全球城鄉(xiāng)制圖計劃（Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project）制作了全球一致的、精確的城市人口空間分布數(shù)據(jù)集 nFurthermore, advances in the development of analytical methods for geovisualiz

43、ation, geosimulation, and spatially explicit process models have simulated urban growth (Torrens, 2006); shown the linkages between places and scales over time (Kwan, 2000); and provided new visual representations of data for hypothesis generation (Carr et al., 2005). n地理可視化（geovisualization） 、地學(xué)模擬（geosimulation）和空間精確過程模型sp