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1、the modelling of computable general equilibrium integrated multi-household(cge-imh) model and its application for china binjian yan a* geoffrey hewings b jin fan c yingheng zhou a (a: college of economics and management, nanjing agricultural university, nanjing, p.r. china b: regional economics appl
2、ications laboratory, university of illinois at urbana and champaign, urbana, usa; c:institute of economic and social development, jiangsu administrative institute, nanjing, p.r. china) abstract: this paper tries to build a computable general equilibrium integrated multi-household (cge-imh) model for
3、 china to analyze the impact of macro policy on micro behaviors. this paper first show that the cge-imh is more suitable for this study among the existed cge microsimulation approaches, and then compile a detailed social accounting matrix (sam) with 18035 households based on the macro data from nati
4、onal account of china and the household data from chinese household income project in 2002. after the data work, this paper modify the standard cge model constructed by lofgren et al.(2002) with increasing more households and estimated parameters, and take the agribusiness development policy effect
5、on income distribution as example to illustrate the powerful ability of cge-imh model of china. this paper shows that the cge-imh model is a useful tool for policymakers on issues like policys distributional effect on households. key words: cge-integrated multi-household approach macro-micro analysi
6、s income disparity agribusiness 1. introduction narrowing the income disparity of households is an important goal in the twelfth five-year (2011-2015) plan of china since the arising of income inequality with the economic growth. lots of studies have been focused on this topic both in empirical and
7、simulated areas. the empirical studies mainly on the measurements, causes and consequences of income disparity (yang, 1999; li and zhao, 1999;xu and zou, 2000; gustafsson and li, 2002; chang, 2002; wang and fan, 2004; wan, 2007; sicular et al.,2007;), and give supportive assumptions for policy and e
8、xternal shock simulations. the simulated researches could be classified into three groups according to the methods they adopt: the first group is studying the policy effect on income disparity at macro level which has the economy-wide effect. many literatures of this kind have studied the impact of
9、chinas accession to the wto on income distribution based on a cge analysis (yang et al., 1997; wang and zhai, 1998; zhai and li, 2000; wang et al., 2005). there are also some researches focuses on the impact of growth pattern on income distribution in china (he and kuijs, 2007), * corresponding auth
10、or. e-mail: , . while the other researches focuses on the impact of fiscal dimension of chinas governmental transfer and preferential tax policy on regional income disparity and poverty reduction (wang et al., 2010), and on the impact of rural income support policy on rural incom
11、e inequality (heerink et al., 2006). the second group is studying the policy implication at micro level which considers the difference among micro behaviors, like household or firm. zhang and wan (2008) analyze the impact of income tax system on households income distribution in china based on a mic
12、ro- simulation model. the third group is studying the macro policy effect on micro behaviors into which tries to incorporate both economy-wide effect and heterogeneous micro behaviors. chen and ravallion(2004) study the welfare impacts of chinas accession to the wto at household level using a cge mi
13、crosimulation approach. though these three groups have their merits in policy simulation, they still have their weakness. for example, the first group can not capture the change of households income because they assume representative household in their macro model, the second group can not consider
14、the economy-wide effect of policies at micro level, and the third group is a comprehensive approach based on the first two groups. technically, the work by chen and ravallion(2004) is not a real macro-micro approach due to the disequilibrium in the commodity market. therefore, the existed studies ha
15、ve not dealt the relationship between micro heterogeneity and macro economy-wide well. as the chinese government demonstrates that the economic growth in china should reach an inclusive growth, the policies focus on making all people sharing with the fruits of economic growth are and will be preferr
16、ed by policymakers, and the policy effect on each household should be studied more seriously. since the representative household in the model cannot be used to analyze whether all people have benefited from economic growth or not, it is necessary to build heterogeneous micro behaviors in the model.
17、it is also very important to reflect the economy-wide effect of these national policies that implemented by the central government to achieve a harmonious society. therefore, it is useful to build a macro-micro model which has the ability to include the above two elements and can provide accurate po
18、licy simulations for policymakers. there are arising interests in studying income disparity using cge micro-simulation methods which build a linkage between household model and cge model around the world. since the first paper proposed the idea of cge micro-simulation written by decaluw, dumont and
19、savard (1999), dozens of studies were carried out to study the impact of macroeconomic policy on micro behaviors and three main approaches were used popularly(cororation,2003; bourguignon et al., 2003; chitiga et al.,2007; peichl,2008;savard,2010). with the advantage of building the a linkage betwee
20、n the macro model and micro model, cge micro-simulation approach could be used to analyze the impacts of macro policy or external macro shock on micro behaviors, and also could be used to study the impact of micro behaviors on macro economy(bourguignon et al., 2010). the availability of macro data a
21、nd national-wide household survey in china provides a sufficient database for building such kind of macro-micro model. since the introduction of sam into china at the 1990s, a lot of researchers were devoted to compile and analyze sams in the following years at both national and provincial levels on
22、 different issues. these kinds of macro data provide enough material and experience for building the macroeconomic database for cge model. table 1 shows the representative sam in china. in the national-wide household survey, several projects were funded to get the household information for academic
23、purpose or policy purpose. table2 shows the representative household database in china. table 1 representative sam in china levelyearauthorspurposes national1992zhou and deng(1998)focus on financial sector national1997li(2003)general national2002li(2008)focus on financial national2007fan et al.(2010
24、)general national1997lei and li(2006)focus on environmental sector provincial2000fan and zheng(2003)focus on financial sector table 2 representative household databases of china namerangesampleorganizationpurpose census1982,1990,2000 all people in china nbsdemographic uhs(urban household survey) 198
25、6-2008(annual) about 35000 households nbs income, education, employment rhs(rural household survey) 1986-2008(annual) about 67000 households nbs income, education, employment chip(chinese household income project survey) 1988,1995,2002 nearly 20000 households nbs and cass income, consumption and emp
26、loyment chns(china health and nutrition survey) 1989,1991,1993,1997,2000,2004,2006 thousands of households cpc-uncch and ninfs- ccdcp health and nutrition charls(china health and retirement longitudinal study) 2008 about 2685 individuals in 1570 households ccer-pku health and retirement clhls(chines
27、e longitudinal healthy longevity survey) 1998,2000,2002,2005 about 20000 individuals ccer-pku and du healthy of the older (nbs: the national bureau of statistics of china; cass: the chinese academy of social science; cpc-uncch: the carolina population center at the university of north carolina at ch
28、apel hill; ninfs-ccdcp: the national institute of nutrition and food safety in the chinese center for disease control and prevention; ccer-pku: the center of chinese economics research in the peking university; du: the duke university. ) based on the discussion above, it is urgently to build a cge-i
29、mh model for analyzing policy effect on income distribution, while the approach and data for this project is also well developed. the rest of the paper is organized as follows. section 2 presents a comparative analysis about the existed types of cge micro-simulation models with their advantages and
30、weakness, and chooses a suitable one for this study. section 3 describes the procedure of the compilation of detailed sam with 18035 households, including the work of compiling macro sam and balancing the household data with the macro account. section 4 gives a comprehensive outlook of the chinese c
31、ge ihm model. section 5 shows an application of analyzing the impact of agribusiness development policy on income distribution in china. the last section concludes on the usefulness of this approach in china and gives some implications for further study. 2. the comparative analysis among different m
32、odels based on a cge framework, cge micro-simulation includes a household model with detailed information about households income and expenditure, which is necessary and important for the issues like income distribution or heterogeneous households. the three popular approaches of cge micro-simulatio
33、n are cge integrated multi-household approach (cge-imh), cge micro- simulation sequential approach (cge-mss), and cge top-down/bottom-up approach (cge- td/bu) (colombo, 2010). the cge-imh approach incorporates all households from household survey into the cge model after achieving the consistency be
34、tween national accounts for cge model and micro data from household survey. it means that the households behaviors of labor supply and commodity purchase in household model are continue and the same as the assumption in cge model. the cge-mss approach passes the output of cge model under a certain s
35、cenario to the household model based on household survey after making the assumption of linkage between cge model and household model. it means that the households behavior of labor supply is discrete and affected by households characteristics like education, gender, location, etc. the factor market
36、, especially the labor market in this approach is equilibrium, but the commodity market is not market clearing due to the lack of feedback of households consumption. the cge-td/bu approach is an extension of cge-mss with the consideration of the feedback effect from household model to the cge model
37、under the premise that the behavior change of households due to the effect by the cge model will have great impact on the macro economy so that it is important to pay attention to the feedback effect. this approach is also an extension of cge-imh with change the households behavior of labor supply f
38、rom continue choice into discrete choice, and consider more factors that have impact on households labor supply decision. figure 1, figure 2 and figure 3 are frameworks for cge-imh, cge-mss and cge-tdbu approaches in respective in order to understand the mechanisms of these three approaches more smo
39、othly. this paper compares the above three cge micro-simulation approaches in aspects of the behavior and equilibrium in factor markets and in the commodity markets, data consistency and speed of solution found. behavior and equilibrium in factor markets although labor and capital are the fundamenta
40、l factors that could provide households with stable income flow, this paper only discusses the labor market for three reasons: the first one is that labor is the primary factor of households in developing countries, especially in china. the second one is that the interest rate in china is fixed by g
41、overnment, not the capital market, therefore, it is improper to analyze the capital market in general equilibrium model. the third one is lack of data about capital holding at micro level. c:household consumption; p: price vector (goods and factors); i: household income; y: other endogenous variable
42、s; x: exogenous variables of the model; a: parameters of the model; b:marginal propensity to save. base cge model; endogenous (c,p,i,y); exogenous (a,x,b) output to household model (p) household model with continue labor supply behavior endogenous (i,c) exogenous(p) output to cge* (c) cge* model end
43、ogenous (p,i,y,b, c) exogenous (a,x) output to hh model (p) loop to: c(t)-c(t-1)0.000001 or other endogenous variables with different limit values figure 1 the framework of cge integrated multi-household approach base cge model ; endogenous(p,i,z,y) exogenous(a,x); output to household model(p,z) p:
44、price vector (goods and factors); i: household income; y: other endogenous variables; z: consistent variables x: exogenous variables of the model; a: parameters of the model; cc: household characteristics. b,d: fixed and changeable parameters. household model with discrete labor supply behavior (par
45、tial equilibrium) variables (i,z,p,cc) parameters (b,d) household model endogenous (i,d) exogenous(b,p,z, cc) macroshock to micro behavior figure 2 the framework of cge micro-simulation sequential approach c:household consumption; p: price vector (goods and factors); i: household income; y: other en
46、dogenous variables; x: exogenous variables of the model; a: parameters of the model; b:marginal propensity to save. base cge model; endogenous (c,p,i,y); exogenous (a,x,b) output to household model (p) household model with discrete labor supply behavior endogenous (i,c) exogenous(p) output to cge* (
47、c) cge* model endogenous (p,i,y,b) exogenous (a,x,c) output to hh model (p) loop to: c(t)-c(t-1)0.000001 figure 3 the framework of cge top-down/bottom-up approach labor market is widely probed in the literature on the application of cge micro-simulation approaches. in the cge-imh model, the labor su
48、pply behavior is continue and households do not make decision between work or not work, but decide how much time they should provide in response to the change of wage determined by the labor market. this model assumes that the labor market will be returned to equilibrium under external shocks or mac
49、ro policies by wage flexibility, so there is no unemployment in the labor market. in the cge-mss and cge-td/bu models, the labor supply behavior is discrete and households could choose work or not work, and the choices they made are depended on their characteristics or by random. these models assume
50、 that the labor market is not market clearing under certain shocks or macro policies, and there will be workers who could not find job. behavior and equilibrium in the commodity markets the equilibrium in the commodity markets is the essential of general equilibrium theory. both in cge-imh and cge-t
51、d/bu models, the demand of households in terms of commodity is equal to the supply of final commodity by the firm, though this equilibrium in the later model always named as the feedback from household to the cge model. in the cge-mss model, the commodity markets are not in equilibrium since it has
52、only considered the transmission from cge to households in labor market and neglected the feedback to cge model in commodity markets. data consistency in the cge-imh model, it has to compile a detailed sam which includes all households in micro- database. therefore, it is necessary to balance the ma
53、cro data and micro data. but in the cge- mss and cge-td/bu models, since the cge model and household model are relative separate, they do not have to adjust the micro data to macro data. this is the advantage of these two models because the process of balancing the data is a time consuming work, how
54、ever, this is also the weakness of these models since the error in simulations resulted from data inconsistency. speed of solution found the speed of solution found depends on the variables and equations in the model. cge-imh model takes a long time to find the solution due to the enormous variables
55、 and equations related with each household from micro-database. cge-mss model cost the shortest time since there are only several representative households in cge model, and the work in the second step in household model is kind of statistic regression which do not need much time. the time cge- td/b
56、u model needs between cge-imh model and cge mss model, because cge-td/bu has a loop between cge model and household model until solution found. in view of the above comparative analysis, this paper contends that cge-imh and cge-td/bu are both suitable for china under different research purposes, and
57、 cge-mss is not as well as these two models since it does not reach equilibrium in commodity markets. furthermore, since data inconsistency is important in macro-micro framework than the role of discrete behavior in labor supply, and the computation time is not a critical factor, it is more persuasi
58、ve to choose cge-imh model. 3. data data in cge-imh model is a detailed sam which consists of income and expenditure data from household survey and national data in the result of the matrix from the national sam. therefore, this section describes the compilation of the national sam, the balance of h
59、ousehold data and the reconciliation between household data and national account. the compilation of national sam in the national sam showed in table 3, there are eight institutions inside the matrix. the following illustrates the economic implication of the account in the sam: (12) represents the i
60、ncome flow from industry to commodity, which named the commodity as input for production in industry; (14) represents the income flow from household to commodity, which named the households consumption; (16) represents the income flow from government to commodity, which named the governments consump
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