投資策略雙周報(bào)：有待下一步130218

1、） 投資策略雙周報(bào) 證券研究報(bào)告 2013 年 2 月 18 日 常宇亮，cfa 分析員，sac 執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號(hào)： s0080511030016 劉剛 分 析 員 ， sac 執(zhí) 業(yè) 證 書 編 號(hào) ： s0080512030003 h 股市場(chǎng)研究部 有待下一步 保持謹(jǐn)慎，等待進(jìn)一步確認(rèn) h 股市場(chǎng)（msci 中國(guó)指數(shù)）在春節(jié)前一周下跌了 2.7%，顯著低于 20022012 年間同期歷史回報(bào)中值 3.1%的水平。 我們?cè)?2 月 4 日發(fā)表的 h 股策略雙周報(bào)維持謹(jǐn)慎，靜待時(shí)機(jī)中關(guān)于股市春節(jié)效應(yīng)事件分析也發(fā)現(xiàn)，春節(jié)假期后 的市場(chǎng)的回報(bào)通常較為平淡。我們維持短期對(duì) h 股相對(duì)謹(jǐn)慎的觀點(diǎn)，考慮到目

2、前市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期已經(jīng)不 低，我們希望等待更為明確的信號(hào)以證實(shí)目前市場(chǎng)當(dāng)前對(duì)未來增長(zhǎng)前景的樂觀預(yù)期后，再考慮大幅提高組合的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 敞口。我們重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的是 3 月 314 日召開的兩會(huì)（觀察有關(guān)改革的線索），以及 3 月 8 日15 日公布的 12 月份國(guó)內(nèi) 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)（尋找經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)重拾升勢(shì)的信號(hào)）。同時(shí)，我們對(duì)密切關(guān)注近期一些國(guó)際事件，如日本、澳洲、英國(guó)央 行以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的會(huì)議紀(jì)要（2 月 1921 日），意大利大選（2 月 2425 日），以及 3 月 1 日即將開始實(shí)施的美國(guó)財(cái)政自 動(dòng)減赤等。 貨幣供應(yīng)充裕，但融資成本仍居高不下 中國(guó)方面，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布的一月份 cpi 和 ppi

3、數(shù)據(jù)基本符合預(yù)期，分別為 2%和-1.6%，而貨幣數(shù)據(jù)卻明顯超出預(yù)期， 其中新增銀行貸款 1.1 萬億人民幣，m1 和 m2 增速分別為 15.3和 15.9，以及創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的 2.5 萬億人民幣的社會(huì)融資 總量。雖然這或多或少和去年春節(jié)錯(cuò)位有一些關(guān)系（2012 年春節(jié)在 1 月下旬，因此基數(shù)較低），但這一融資規(guī)模從任 何標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看都是非?？捎^的。具體來看，社會(huì)融資總量大幅增加的主要貢獻(xiàn)是來自于銀行貸款和承兌匯票（圖 1）， 這與歷年年初由于新批貸款額度帶來大額貸款增加的規(guī)律一致。但是，我們注意到 1 月份貸款占社會(huì)融資總量的比例 只有 42%（圖 2），是過去 10 年以來的最低點(diǎn)，這表明銀行貸款

4、這一相對(duì)便宜的融資方式對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持力度 在下降。實(shí)際情況也的確如此，以 6 個(gè)月票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)利率來近似代表實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)融資成本，我們看到該指標(biāo)仍維持在 5.1% 的高位，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于 09 年上半年 1.6%的水平（圖 53），當(dāng)時(shí)較低的資金成本主要是由于銀行貸款極其充裕（2009 年 1 月貸款占社會(huì)融資總量比例為 116，其他融資方式為凈減少）。鑒于此，我們認(rèn)為不必對(duì) 1 月份大規(guī)模的社會(huì)融資 感到過于興奮，我們可能還需要更多的政策支持，確實(shí)降低實(shí)體融資成本之后，企業(yè)部門才能見到更強(qiáng)勁也更為持久 的盈利復(fù)蘇。 香港市場(chǎng)賣空交易再度活躍，股票再融資升溫 h 股市場(chǎng)方面，我們提醒投資者特別關(guān)注近期

5、的兩個(gè)趨勢(shì)：1）港股市場(chǎng)賣空交易再度活躍。賣空成交額占市場(chǎng)總成 交金額比例大幅快速回升，最新 5 天平均水平已經(jīng)超出了 10%的警戒線，這表明不少投資者已經(jīng)開始調(diào)整倉(cāng)位，為市 場(chǎng)下跌做好準(zhǔn)備。從歷史規(guī)律來看，賣空成交占比和 h 股指數(shù)（hscei）往往存在非常顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)性，因此我們將 密切監(jiān)控這一指標(biāo)（圖 3）；2）在前期市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁反彈后，股票市場(chǎng)再融資開始升溫，包括配股、增發(fā)、主要股東套現(xiàn) 等。分行業(yè)看，近期上漲幅度較大的板塊如銀行、房地產(chǎn)、汽車等等 9 月以來的再融資金額居前（圖 4）。在我們看 來，這表明公司管理層或部份大股東在當(dāng)前股價(jià)水平上無需過多猶豫即愿意增加股票供給以滿足公眾投資者

6、近期的熱 烈需求。值得注意的是，歷史規(guī)律表明，大規(guī)模股票再融資后，h 股市場(chǎng)指數(shù)往往出現(xiàn)回調(diào)（圖 5）。此外，我們還 看到，對(duì)于一定規(guī)模以上的 h 股（市值大于 10 億美元）來說，再融資后 13 月內(nèi)股價(jià)取得正收益的可能性低于 50%， 而歷史回報(bào)中值為-1%（圖 6）。 最后，h 股 2012 年報(bào)公布期將近，大多數(shù)公司將從 3 月中旬開始發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)。與此同時(shí)，許多公司已經(jīng)預(yù)先披露了業(yè) 績(jī)預(yù)告。通過分析 2012 年報(bào) a 股和 h 股的盈利預(yù)告情況，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)相比 2012 年上半年，盈利預(yù)喜的公司占比明顯 上升而負(fù)面預(yù)警的公司占比有所收窄，這也證實(shí)了我們先前預(yù)計(jì) 2012 年下半年盈利將出

7、現(xiàn)環(huán)比復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期（參見我 們于 9 月 23 日發(fā)表的策略報(bào)告布局復(fù)蘇：2012 年四季度 h 股投資策略。目前我們對(duì) 2012 年 h 股整體盈利增 長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)是 3.3%，其中非金融行業(yè)-5.9%，金融行業(yè) 14%。更多分析請(qǐng)參考第 35 頁(yè)的“追蹤 2012 年報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告”。 注釋：此報(bào)告為 h 股策略雙周報(bào)“more steps needed”的中文翻譯版，原文以英文撰寫，已于的中文翻譯版，原文以英文撰寫，已于 2 月 18 日正式出版。 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀在本報(bào)告尾部的重要法律聲明 jul-10jul-11 may-10may-11may-12 mar-10nov-10sep-10jan-10

8、mar-11nov-11sep-11jan-11mar-12 jul-12 nov-12 jan-12 sep-12jan-13 ener g jan-11feb-11mar-11apr-11 may-11 jun-11 jul-11 aug-11sep-11oct-11nov-11 dec-11 jan-12feb-12mar-12apr-12 may-12 jun-12 jul-12 aug-12sep-12oct-12nov-12 dec-12 jan-13feb-13mar-13 ba rea insu r lest at anc e util ities fina nc au ia

9、to ls nim trend likely to diverge among peers in 2h12, but positive outlook in 1q13. top picks: hsbc, bochk, dsf sg banks: the aggregate constant currency loan growth of 9.7% in fy12 is in line with singapore banks managements fy1213 loan growth guidance. we maintain overweight stance, with dbs as o

10、ur top pick. 1. for february, we maintain our accumulate rating on chinas insurance sector after downgrading the sector on january 8. abc (01288.hk, buy, tp hk$4.21) crcb (03618.hk, accum, tp hk$4.7) hsbc (00005.hk, accum, tp hk$93.92) bochk (02388.hk, accum, tp hk$29.4) dsf (00440.hk, accum, tp hk$

11、46.07) dbs (dbs.sp, accum, tp sg$16.5) insuranceinsurers2. we suggest over-weighting insurers with the highest investment portfolios in thecpic (02601.hk, accum, tp hk$33) banking sector and cpic-a/-h with its solid fundamentals. we also suggest equal- weighting ctih-h and under-weighting china life

12、 a/h and nci a/h. 1. h-share brokers are at 31.7x 2013e p/e and 1.94x 2013e p/b. securitiessecurities2. we continue to see limited upside room for h-share brokers so keep citic-h and haitong-h at accumulate. 1. we believe the positives from an improving financing environment are mostly priced in and

13、 see more odds on the downside than upside for h-share property. 2. we reiterate our near-term cautious stance and recommend investors take longfor (00960.hk, buy, tp hk$19.5) greentown (03900.hk, buy, tp hk$16.8) real estatereal estateprofits on stocks with relatively weak fundamentals and that hav

14、e had the strongest rally in the past few months. 3. our pecking order: longfor, greentown, sunac china, shenzhen investment, sunac china (01918.hk, buy, tp hk$8.6) shenzhen investment (00604.hk, buy, tp hk$4) sino ocean (03377.hk, accum, tp hk$7.8) sino ocean, crland, coli, franshion, and r the lau

15、nch of china gold etf may also be a catalyst for gold stocks. 1. cement stocks rally to extend to a visible cement price hike post-cny. we favor cnbm, conch and asia cement among h-shares. 2. given the visible price hike, we raise our 2013 earnings forecasts and accordingly raise our tps for conch,

16、cnbm and asia cement to hk$35, 16 and 5.5, implying 2013e p/e of 16x, 8x and 7x before the peak season arrives. 1. among h-shares, an steel and magangs valuation recovered to 0.7x and 0.6x p/b, at a 20% premium and 5% discount to a-shares. 2. we believe the expectation for economic recovery has been

17、 fully priced in; since industrial earnings can hardly expand and results can hardly improve, there is some room for shorting. anton oilfield (03337.hk, buy, tp hk$4.5) spt energy (01251.hk, buy, tp hk$4.5) honghua (00196.hk, buy, tp hk$4.0) cosl (02883.hk, buy, tp hk$20) hilong (01623.hk, buy, tp h

18、k$3.8) yitai coal (03948.hk, buy, tp hk$53.2) china shenhua (01088.hk, buy, tp hk$35.2) vinda (03331.hk, buy, tp hk$13.5) hengan (01044.hk, buy, tp hk$87.5) china moly (03993.hk, accum, tp hk$3.4) jiangxi copper (00358.hk, accum, tp hk$21.2) cnbm (03323.hk, buy, tp hk$16) anhui conch (00914.hk, buy,

19、 tp hk$35) asia cement (00743.hk, buy, tp hk$5.5) angang (00347.hk, hold, tp hk$4) maanshan (00323.hk, hold, tp hk$1.84) construction engineering 1. we advise focusing on stocks driven by central government policies in 1h13 and those with local-government impetus in 2h13 (e.g. cccc-h). 2. railway co

20、nstruction is likely to outperform until 1q13; stay with crg and cut 2013 eps forecasts by 2.7%/20.4%. we advise investors to trade zoomlion-h between a range of hk$812. to reflect weaker-than-expected demand and a worsening industry competitivedongfang elec. (01072.hk, reduce, tp electrical equipme

21、nt landscape, we downgrade harbin power equip. from buy to hold and shanghai electric from hold to reduce, and maintain our call to reduce dongfang electric. hk$8.8) shanghai elec. (02727.hk, reduce, tp hk$1.7) 下頁(yè)繼續(xù) 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀在本報(bào)告尾部的重要法律聲明 7 railways airports / airlines ports marine hardware internet ret

22、ail hk$0.6) power 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 圖表 17: 中金行業(yè)觀點(diǎn)總結(jié)以及股票建議(續(xù)表) sectorsub-sectorsector analyst viewstop picksstocks to avoid reform may bring trading opportunities: 1) railway reform may begin after new government take over in mar. 2) we expect the separation of government body with enterprise e

23、ntity, but no much big progress in 2013. we remain optimistic about airlines as earnings bottomed in 2012 and supply and demand may moderately recover in 2013; we expect earnings to rise 3040% as airfares edge up on recovery of business travel, oil prices could drop and oil rmb might appreciate slig

24、htly. maintain buy on air china. continue to favor hub airports. maintain accumulate for bcia, but suggest taking profits as it faces capacity bottleneck and already has a relatively high valuation. bcia (00694.hk, buy, tp hk$6.39) air china (00753.hk, buy, tp hk$7.73) transportation toll roads now

25、chinas road density is almost comparable to u.s. level, with low utilization. railway diversion makes the traffic growth outlook even worse. government lacks the incentive to maintain toll level if they want to lower the logistics costs in china. 1. given that container throughput growth in 2013 wil

26、l be higher than 2012, and cimc will also do better this year, earnings recovery is sure thing. 2. since cosco pacific is trading at fair value and limited downside, any high- than-expected export data could drive share price. we maintain our neutral view of the sector. however, we now suggest profi

27、t taking after the recent rally as we did not see any fundamental upside surprise in china merchants (00144.hk, sell, tp hk$17.6) transportnthe near term. we expect second bout of opportunity likely to appear at end-2013 to reflect start of a tepid shipping sector recovery in 2014. software: we expe

28、ct the average labor cost for the china it software outsourcing industry to rise 57% in 2012. a 5% increase in labor costs could hurt net profit i.t. software accumulate skyworth and tcl multimedia on rising smart tv popularity and strong sales growth. 1. watch opportunities in 1q13 and 3q13. we are

29、 not optimistic on industry fundamentals and advise investors to focus more on timing and stock selection. 2. for h-shares, we prefer intime (breakthroughs in shopping malls and online shopping) and golden eagle. sunart has the most solid fundamentals among haier electronics (01169.hk, buy, tp hk$11

30、.5) skyworth (00751.hk, accum, tp hk$5) tcl (01070.hk, accum, tp hk5.6) intime (01833.hk, buy, tp hk$12.25) parkson (03368.hk, hold, tp hk$5.85) golden eagle (03308.hk, accum, tp hk$18.85) gome (00493.hk, sell, hk tp$ 0.77) supermarket companies, but valuation and expectations are elevated. we do no

31、t like gome and parkson. 1. overall 1h12 results lower than expected with terminal sales under pressure.anta (02020.hk, sell, tp hk$4.0) textiles cu launched its on october 18. telecom services telecom services we believe the mass-market war is the right strategy and is positive to cu and ct, but qu

32、ite negative to cm. 2. we are negative on cm in 4q as the mass-market war has started and iphone5 china telecom (00728.hk, buy, tp hk$6.0) china mobile (00941.hk, reduce, tp hk$75.0) will be launched. utilities city utilities wind: sector headwinds remain the obstacle to a sustainable rally. order o

33、f preference: huaneng renewables and longyuan power. gas: we expect the sectors strong performance to continue in 2012. order of preference: behl, cr gas, enn, towngas and china gas. water and environmental: policy likely to support healthy growth, and water tariff hikes might be the catalyst. order

34、 of preference: cei, bew, gdte, gdi and cwa. 1. we expect thermal output to grow by 01% yoy and thermal utilization to drop behl (00392.hk, buy, tp hk$60) cei (00257.hk, buy, tp hk$4.8) bew (00371.hk, buy, tp hk$2.2) gdte (01296. hk, buy, tp hk$2) cr gas (01193.hk, buy, tp hk$17.0) enn (02688.hk, ac

35、cum, tp hk$32.0) towngas (01083.hk, accum, tp hk$6) cwa (00855.hk, hold, tp hk$2.0) by some 6% yoy in 2012. we maintain our 2012/13 china power consumption growth forecast to be +5.5% and +7.0% yoy. 2. we reiterate buy on huaneng due to its coastal area exposure, decent dividend payout and nature of

36、 pure thermal generator. we also maintain buy on cr power huaneng (00902.hk, buy, tp hk$7.0) crp (00836.hk, buy, tp hk$20) with its visible profitability improvement and healthy balance sheet. we maintain hold on datang and huadian. 資料來源：彭博資訊, 中金公司研究部 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀在本報(bào)告尾部的重要法律聲明 8 may-12 aug-12 apr-12jun-12

37、jul-12 sep-12nov-12 dec-12feb-12 mar-12 jan-13oct-12 aug-12 apr-12jun-12jul-12 feb-12sep-12 may-12 mar-12nov-12 dec-12jan-13 oct-12feb-12aug-12 apr-12jun-12jul-12 sep-12 may-12 nov-12 dec-12jan-13 oct-12mar-12 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn) 圖表 18: h 股最近兩周下跌 1.2%，盡管在農(nóng)歷蛇年開始 的兩天內(nèi)上漲 1.5% 圖表 19: msci 中國(guó)指數(shù)

38、2013 年至今上漲 3.2%，略微低 于 1 月份中出現(xiàn)的 52 周高點(diǎn) cons. disc. i.t. transportation healthcare utilities capital goods materials 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 3.9% msci china index level 70 2013 ytd return: +3.2% 65 60 55 (hk$mn) 100 52-wk high: jan 18, 2013 90 80 70 60 50 cons. stap. telcos div. financials -0.0%

39、 -0.4% -0.5% 50 +28% 52-wk low: sep 5, 2012 40 30 msci china banks insurance -2.5% -3.2% -1.2% 45 40 52-wk performance 20 10 0 energy real estate -3.4% -3.9% 2-wk performance 圖表 20: 紡織服裝、電腦以及水務(wù)等板塊在過去兩周中 跑贏 圖表 21: 電信、通信設(shè)備、零售和房地產(chǎn)過去兩周中表 現(xiàn)落后 textiles & apparel computers water utilities paper & forest el

40、ectrical equip. automobiles beverages pharmaceuticals marine 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 7.3% 7.0% div. telecom comm. equip. multiline retail real estate mgmt oil & gas electronic equip. insurance food retailing banks -5.6% -5.2% -4.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -2.5% -2.5% household durables4.8

41、% 2-wk performance metals & mining 2-wk performance -1.6% 圖表 22: 過去兩周中，msci 中國(guó)指數(shù)周期性板塊和防御 性板塊表現(xiàn)基本持平 圖表 23: 從 2012 年 12 月中旬以來，msci 中國(guó)指數(shù)小 盤股表面優(yōu)于大盤股 (rebased)cyclicals over defensives (rhs)mxcn cyclicalsmxcn defensives(ppt)(rebased) large over small (rhs)mxcn large capmxcn small cap (ppt) 130 120 52-wk

42、performance cyclicals outperform 40 30 20 130 120 large-caps outperform 12 8 110 100 10 0 -10 110 100 4 0 90 80 -20 -30 90 small-caps outperform-4 -8 70 defensives outperform -40 -50 80 52-wk performance -12 資料來源：彭博資訊, factset, msci, 中金公司研究部 注：“周期性板塊”包括可選消費(fèi)、資本品、能源、it、原材料及交通；“防御性板塊”包括日常消費(fèi)、醫(yī)療保健、電信及公共事

43、業(yè)。 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀在本報(bào)告尾部的重要法律聲明 9 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 圖表 24: 過去兩周表現(xiàn)最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 億美元, 日均成交量us$200 萬美元） 圖表 25: 年初至今表現(xiàn)最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 億美元, 日均成交量us$200 萬美元） company name top performers huaneng renewables corp. byd co. ltd. sino biopharmaceutical ltd. baoxin auto china everbright interna

44、tional ltd. weifu high-technology co. ltd. geely automobile holdings co. ltd. xinyi glass holdings ltd. beijing enterprises water group ltd. shenzhou international group holdings ltd. ticker 958 hk 1211 hk 1177 hk 1293 hk 257 hk 200581 ch 175 hk 868 hk 371 hk 2313 hk sector utilities consumer discre

45、tionary health care consumer discretionary industrials consumer discretionary consumer discretionary consumer discretionary utilities consumer discretionary 2w return 37% 24% 18% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% ytd return 54% 38% 26% 43% 24% 38% 26% 19% 10% 24% company name top performers chongqing chan

46、gan automobile co. ltd. truly international holdings ltd. huaneng renewables corp. yashili international holdings ltd. melco international development ltd. baoxin auto lao feng xiang co. ltd. gcl-poly energy holdings ltd. biostime international holdings ltd. hangzhou steam turbine co., ltd. ticker 2

47、00625 ch 732 hk 958 hk 1230 hk 200 hk 1293 hk 900905 ch 3800 hk 1112 hk 200771 ch sector consumer discretionary information technology utilities consumer staples consumer discretionary consumer discretionary consumer discretionary information technology consumer staples industrials 2w return 5% 9% 3

48、7% 11% -5% 14% -4% 4% 4% 2% ytd return 87% 61% 54% 47% 43% 43% 41% 40% 40% 39% bottom performers bottom performers yantai changyu pioneer wine co., ltd. baidu, inc. hopson development holdings ltd. soho china ltd. china unicom (hong kong) ltd. china vanke co. ltd. sino-ocean land holdings ltd. y, in

49、c. china shenhua energy co. ltd. longfor properties co. ltd. 200869 ch bidu us 754 hk 410 hk 762 hk 200002 ch 3377 hk yoku us 1088 hk 960 hk consumer staples information technology financials financials telecommunication servic financials financials information technology energy financials -15% -13%

50、 -12% -11% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -7% -11% -6% 11% -1% -7% 22% -2% 18% -9% -11% li & fung ltd. china foods ltd. renhe commercial holdings co. ltd. parkson retail group ltd. foxconn international holdings ltd. golden eagle retail group ltd. hunan nonferrous metals corp. ltd. sany heavy equipment intl ne

51、w oriental edu & tech longfor properties co. ltd. 494 hk 506 hk 1387 hk 3368 hk 2038 hk 3308 hk 2626 hk 631 hk edu us 960 hk consumer discretionary consumer staples financials consumer discretionary information technology consumer discretionary materials industrials consumer discretionary financials

52、 -5% -19% -3% -13% -3% -3% 1% -5% -2% -7% -25% -25% -17% -17% -16% -16% -16% -14% -12% -11% 圖表 26: msci 中國(guó)指數(shù)各板塊過去兩周表現(xiàn)最佳/最差的 10 只股票 sector tickercompany name 2w return ytd return tickercompany name 2w return ytd return top performersbottom performers consumer discretionary1211 hk byd co. ltd.24.2%38%

53、3368 hk parkson retail group ltd.-13.1%-17% consumer staples168 hktsingtao brewery co., ltd.5.5%2%506 hkchina foods ltd.-19.1%-25% energy2883 hk china oilfield services ltd.3.5%7%1088 hk china shenhua energy co. ltd.-7.6%-9% financials3360 hk far east horizon ltd.3.3%-1%410 hksoho china ltd.-11.1%-1

54、% health care460 hksihuan pharmaceutical holdings group ltd.5.2%6%1066 hk shandong weigao group medical polymer-0.7%-3% industrials3898 hk zhuzhou csr times electric co. ltd.9.2%-5%1800 hk china communications construction co. ltd.-3.1%2% information technology992 hklenovo group ltd.7.0%26%763 hkzte

55、 corp.-5.2%8% materials1208 hk minmetals resources ltd.10.0%13%2899 hk zijin mining group co. ltd.-6.4%-8% telecommunication services utilities 552 hk 916 hk china communications services corp. ltd. china longyuan power group corp. ltd. 6.1% 8.9% 13% 35% 762 hk 902 hk china unicom (hong kong) ltd. h

56、uaneng power international, inc. -8.4% -1.5% -7% 9% msci china1211 hk byd co. ltd.24.2%38%506 hkchina foods ltd.-19.1%-25% 圖表 27: 東南亞市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)跑，上證指數(shù)春節(jié)假期前上漲 0.6%；s&p 500 上漲 0.4%而歐洲微跌 0.3% 圖表 28: 原油小幅上漲 0.8%，工業(yè)金屬普遍下跌，黃金 重挫 3.4%；波羅的海干散貨指數(shù)大體持平 indonesia (jci) 2.9%gasoline2.6% australia (as51) thailand (set) s

57、outh korea (kospi) taiwan (twse) 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 2.3% aluminum heating oil crude oil 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% china (shcomp) us (s&p500) us (nasdaq) japan (nky) us (dow jones) singapore (fssti) europe (stoxx 600) uk (ukx) canada (sptsx) hong kong (hsi) msci china (mxcn) usx china (hxc) -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3%

58、-0.3% -0.6% -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% baltic dry lead copper nickel crb wheat soybean gold natural gas -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% -2.2% -3.0% -3.4% -3.4% -4.5% 0.4% india (sensex) russian (micex) brazil (ibx) -2.5% -2.7% -1.6% 2-wk performance corn silver -5.1% -6.4% 2-wk performance 資料來源：彭博資訊, factse

59、t, msci, 中金公司研究部 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)閱讀在本報(bào)告尾部的重要法律聲明 10 jun-05jun-06jun-07jun-08jun-09jun-10jun-11 dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-09dec-10dec-11jun-12dec-12 mscichina insurance i.t. cons.stap.realestatecons.disc. healthcare banks utilities div.financials capitalgoods materials energy transportation telcos transportation healthcare div.financials capitalgoods mscichinacons.stap. insurance telcos utilities cons.disc. materials energy banks i.t. aug-11feb-11aug-12 apr-11jun-10apr-12jun-12 jul-10jul-11jul-12 sep-10sep-11 may-10may-11 nov-11mar-12dec-10dec-11nov-12dec-12feb-13 jan-11mar-10jan-12oct-10oct-12 rea