中國鋼鐵改革 2.0 的全球影響

中國鋼鐵改革2.0的全球影響隨著更多針對中國鋼鐵出口的反傾銷調(diào)查，我們看到了中國新一輪較為溫和的供給側(cè)改革的可能性。這將是全球鋼鐵貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移的一個關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素，為供應(yīng)的區(qū)域化和全球鋼鐵行業(yè)利潤的再提升提供支撐。中國鋼鐵行業(yè)—尋找新的平衡：面對宏觀和出口阻力，中國鋼鐵行業(yè)需要再次通過自律以緩解供給側(cè)壓力，和留住利潤。根據(jù)我們的渠道調(diào)查，一項潛在的新鋼鐵行業(yè)供給側(cè)改革可能會從2025年開始推出。我們認為，鑒于當(dāng)下與上輪周期不同的行業(yè)和經(jīng)濟基本面情況，本輪供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革將比2016/17年的供給側(cè)改革更加溫和，也會更加謹慎。我們還看到了進一步行業(yè)整合的潛力。此外，我們預(yù)計將全面推動鋼鐵脫碳，同時進行有效的監(jiān)督世界其他地區(qū)將從中受益：我們認為，中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量和出口的下降可能會導(dǎo)致其他地區(qū)鋼鐵企業(yè)的市場份額上升和利潤回升。我們看到兩種可能的情況：情境#1:我們宏觀團隊預(yù)測的基準情境是，美國對所有中國進口產(chǎn)品的加權(quán)平均關(guān)稅稅率將在2025年達到26%,然后在2026年達到36%。這可能導(dǎo)致中國到2025年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量削減2-3%,并導(dǎo)致出口減少1000-2000萬噸(15-20%)。這將導(dǎo)致美國熱軋卷價格上漲10-13%。情境#2:在其他條件相同的情況下，更激進的關(guān)稅環(huán)境可能導(dǎo)致中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量減少4-5%,出口減少3000-4000萬噸，從而進一步收緊國際市場。這將導(dǎo)致美國熱軋卷價格上漲15-20%。全球鋼鐵股偏好：我們認為，從全球范圍來看，鋼鐵股并未反映中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)能即將調(diào)整的預(yù)期。估值和近期調(diào)整提供了精選的入場機會。我們認為這些股票是各自地區(qū)的相對受益者：·歐洲：安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)和奧鋼聯(lián)(Voestalpine)·土耳其：Erdemir·美國：美國鋼鐵公司·日本：日本制鐵·大中華區(qū)：寶鋼股份和中鋼(評級上調(diào)至超配(OW))Thistranslatedreportismadeavailableforconvenienceonlyandisexcerptedfrombetweenthetranslationandtheoriginalresearchreport,thSteel:Global/mplicationsofChina'sSteelReform20(19/an2025)Alan.Gabriel@MorganStanleycAdahnaEkoku@morganstR.Anand@morganstanleyYoung.Shin@morganstanleycom+822399-4994MorganStanleydoesandscompaniescoveredinMorganinvestorsshouldbeawareinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirForanalystcertificrefertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheen+=AnalystsemployedwithFINRA,maynotcommunicationswithasubjectcompany,pubandtradingsecuritiesheldb2本翻譯報告僅供參考之便，摘自以英文發(fā)表的原版研究報告。如果翻譯與原版研究報告有任何不一致之處，以原版研究報告中的內(nèi)容為準。原版研究報告可在此處查看：GlobalSteet:Global/mplicationsofChina'sSteelReform20(19/anHelen.Amos@morganstanleycom+44207677-0678行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點行業(yè)觀點印度原材料行業(yè)行業(yè)觀點中鋼(2002.TW)目標價從目標價目標價從到低迷的利潤率和不斷升級的貿(mào)易摩擦正在推動中國鋼鐵行業(yè)走向新一輪的供給側(cè)改革…………這可能會部分重構(gòu)全球鋼鐵貿(mào)易，并支撐其他地區(qū)鋼鐵企業(yè)利潤的提升。國內(nèi)需求低迷促使中國鋼廠轉(zhuǎn)向利潤更高的其他市場，使2024年出口量達到1.1億噸的高位，約占全球鋼材貿(mào)易量的20%。這已在全球范圍內(nèi)引發(fā)70多項針對中國鋼鐵進口的反傾銷調(diào)查，因為各國的政策制定者也在競相保護其國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)。為了適應(yīng)這一新現(xiàn)實，我們認為中國將進行“迷你”供給側(cè)改革以減輕影響。根據(jù)我們的渠道調(diào)查，2025年可能會推出一項潛在的新改革：將根據(jù)運營效率評級系統(tǒng)(例如排放、能耗強度)分配產(chǎn)量。與2016/17年的供給側(cè)改革相比，此次改革對鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的影響可能會更?。何覀冾A(yù)計這一次是每年低個位數(shù)百分比的產(chǎn)量下降。我們認為，新的政策目標是在需求放緩的同時逐步退出產(chǎn)能，而不對GDP或就業(yè)造成重大影響。我們探討兩種情境：·#1:我們宏觀團隊預(yù)測的基準情境是，美國對所有中國進口商品的加權(quán)平均關(guān)稅稅率將在2025年達到26%,然后在2026年升至36%。這可能導(dǎo)致中國到2025年的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量削減2-3%,從而導(dǎo)致其出口減少1000-2000萬噸(15-20%)。這將導(dǎo)致美國的熱軋卷價格上漲10-13%?！?2:在其他條件相同的情況下，更激進的關(guān)稅環(huán)境可能促使中國減產(chǎn)4-5%,出口減少3000-4000萬噸，更大幅度地收緊國際鋼鐵市場。這將導(dǎo)致美國熱軋卷價格上漲15-20%。未來利潤率回升：中國鋼鐵出口的潛在緊縮可能會扭轉(zhuǎn)全球鋼鐵價格通縮趨勢，其他區(qū)域的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)商的產(chǎn)能利用率將隨著其市場份額提高而提升。這將為他們的利潤拐點提供支持，特別是在進口增加沖擊最嚴重的地區(qū)。MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH4中國的鋼材出口量達到1.1億噸，我們看到了來自全球的以反傾銷調(diào)查和征收關(guān)稅形式的阻力：中國的出口/產(chǎn)量比率再次超過10%的水平，而中國在全球鋼材貿(mào)易中的份額已經(jīng)超過20%。因此，2024年共發(fā)起74起針對中國的反傾銷調(diào)查，其中34起為新立案，并且在2024年接下來怎么看?中國將開啟供給側(cè)改革2.0:歷史似乎正在重演：房地產(chǎn)和基建行業(yè)需求下降→鋼鐵生產(chǎn)商利潤下降→被迫出口過剩產(chǎn)能(2015年，中國的鋼材出口量為112億噸，占全球鋼材貿(mào)易量觸發(fā)反傾銷應(yīng)訴→供給側(cè)改革。這次有何不同：在第一次改革中，2015-18年期間中國關(guān)閉了1.8億噸產(chǎn)能。根據(jù)我們的渠道調(diào)查，鑒于在目前疲軟的宏觀環(huán)境下需要穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)，我們認為第二次改革不會那么激進。相反，我們認為改革2.0可能會導(dǎo)致基于分級制度的2-3%的產(chǎn)量削減。政策目標是隨著國內(nèi)鋼鐵需求的放緩，逐步去產(chǎn)能和減產(chǎn)，而不會對GDP和就業(yè)造成重大影響。我們認為，幾年后第二輪房改仍將有效解決供過于求的問題。評估影響我們預(yù)計未來三年中國將每年減產(chǎn)1000-2000萬噸，約占其總出口的15-20%,產(chǎn)量每年減少2-3%:這取決于調(diào)查結(jié)果、出口目的地可能發(fā)生的變化，以及執(zhí)行速度。我們預(yù)計美國對中國鋼鐵征收的任何額外關(guān)稅所產(chǎn)生的直接影響都不大：因為關(guān)稅已經(jīng)很高，對美國的鋼鐵出口占中國出口總額的1%以內(nèi)。然而，通過轉(zhuǎn)運形式出口的鋼鐵數(shù)量也可能下降?；鶞是榫诚氯蜾摬膬r格會逐步回升?！ぴ?016年和2017年去產(chǎn)能6%和4%的供給側(cè)改革期間，中國熱扎卷價格分別上漲25%和36%,而出口量則分別下降4%和35%?！び捎诖舜谓祪r幅度較小，我們預(yù)計在此情境下中國熱扎卷價格將上漲5-10%?！み@將導(dǎo)致美國熱軋卷價格上漲10-13%,巴西上漲3-6%?！τ跉W洲，我們預(yù)計價格將上漲10-15%?！び《鹊脑龇赡芗s為5-10%。情境2我們預(yù)計中國將減產(chǎn)超過4-5%,出口減少4000萬噸—關(guān)稅影響上升的可能結(jié)果。盡管中國對美國的直接鋼材出口不到總量的1%,中國的間接鋼鐵出口(即含有鋼鐵的制成品或半制成品的出口)對美國的敞口更大，如果美國對中國商品征收額外關(guān)稅，而中國不能通過繞道出口抵銷影響，間接出口可能面臨風(fēng)險。如果美國征收更多的普遍關(guān)稅，中國對美國以外地區(qū)的出口也可能面臨風(fēng)險?！ぴ谶@種情況下，我們估計中國的鋼材出口將額外損失2000萬噸.我們的預(yù)測表明，情境2將導(dǎo)致中國的熱扎卷價格上漲15-20%…………并對全球熱扎卷價格產(chǎn)生更重大的積極影響，例如：漲15-20%,印度熱軋卷價格上漲約15-20%?！し磧A銷措施確實會在短期內(nèi)導(dǎo)致受援國的國內(nèi)價格上漲……·……而非中國鋼廠可能會搶占中國鋼鐵的部分全球市場份額?！るS著供給側(cè)改革帶來的減產(chǎn)，中國國內(nèi)鋼材價格也可能反彈。MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH6我們認為這些股票是各地區(qū)的相對受益者和Ternium(TX.N)超配)拉丁美洲該地區(qū)從中國的進口大幅增長。我們看好具有擴大市場份額可能性的本土鋼鐵制造商，例如：·我們最看好的個股仍然是ArcelorMittal(超配)和Voestalpin(超配):兩家公司都處于有利地位，資產(chǎn)負債表風(fēng)險小，可從競爭激烈程度減弱的全球鋼鐵市場中受益。日本減少向東南亞出口的主要受益者，同時也受益于中國鋼鐵間接進口量的下降(通過韓國進口)。印度進口下降和任何進口關(guān)稅都會對整個鋼鐵行業(yè)提供支持，所有鋼鐵行業(yè)股票都可能表現(xiàn)·我們認為JSWSteel(超配)最有可能從國內(nèi)價格反彈中獲益：公司擁有有利的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)，可填補中國鋼鐵出口商留下的空白，同時受益于板材產(chǎn)品利潤率的提大中華區(qū)·我們看好寶鋼股份(超配)和中鋼(評級上調(diào)至超配),因為它們是區(qū)域內(nèi)主要的鋼鐵企業(yè)：在中國鋼鐵行業(yè)溫和收縮的情況下，前者有可能鞏固市場份額。后者受益于減少的出口競爭。韓國·必和必拓(超配)和MIN(超配)等鐵礦石生產(chǎn)商是我們首選的鐵礦石股：盡管口和國內(nèi)需求的疲軟),特別是中東、東南亞和印度?！の覀冾A(yù)測到2030年，全球鐵礦石需求的復(fù)合年增長率將達到0.7%……·……但預(yù)計在此期間全球進口將每年下降出約10%)。MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH8Scenario2USdomesticHRCpScenario2BrazilianrebarScenario1BrazllanHRCScenario2BrazilianHRCpriceupScenario2LatinAmericaHRCpriceup8-10N.EuropeHRCpriceup10-15%,Brazpriceup5-8%,USdomestiN.EuropeHRCpriceup15-20%,Brazildomestic+109.1%Scenanio2TurkeydoScenario2N.EuropeHScenario1MainlandChiMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHExhibit3:中國按地區(qū)/國家劃分的鋼材出口—2024年1-10(Cases)(Cases)86420Exhibit6:對當(dāng)?shù)貎r格的影響(歷史)T+6,+8.3%T+12,+0Exhibit9:中國鋼鐵減產(chǎn)：基準情境對比悲觀情境Exhibit10:中國出口下降：基準情境對比悲觀情境MorganStanleyisactinconnectionwithapotewouldacquireUSSteel'stwoblastfurnacesatGranitetongranulatedpigironproductionfacility.Uponcompletionoftheproposedfacility,SunCokewouldsupplyU.S.Steelaccessto100%ofthepigIronproductionforthenexttennegotiationandexecutionofadefinitiveagreement,approvalbytheU.S.SteelBoDirectors,andreceiptofallappropriateregulatoryapprovals.US.SteelhasagreedtopayfeestoMorganStanleyforitsfinancialservicesthatarecontingentuponconsummattheproposedtransaction.Pleaserefertothenotesattheendofthisreport.MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHTheirforratonandopinionsinMorganStaneyPesearchwerepreparedoraredseninatedbyMorganStarley&CaLLCandorMorganStanlCasadeBolsa.SAdeCV.andorMorganStanleyCanadaLimtedandorMorganStanley&Ccalhteratonalplcand/Limtedand/orMorganStanleyMUFGSecurtesCo,LtdanPte(Regstratonnumber199206298Zand/orMarganStanleyAsaSingaporeSecurtesPeltd(Regstatonumber20084340,regulatedbytheMonetary(whichacceptsleglresposbltyfortscontentsandshoudbecontatedwthrespectoanymattesarsngfrom,orincomectonwith,MorganStanleyResearch)aTawanLimitedandorMorganStnley&ColhteratonalpleSeoulrench,and/orMorganStanleyAustralaNo.233742,whichaceptsresponsblityforitsconterts),andorMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustralaPtyLd(ABN.No.2408B,whichacceptsresponsbtyforiscontents),andorMorganStarleyhdaCompanyPrwatelLimtedhavngCorporateldernticatiobythesecrtesandExchangeBardofnda(SEBP)andholderoflcensesasaResearchAnalyst(SEERegstationNa.INHO0mos),StockBroker(SEBINo.INZ00024438),MechantBaNDPNSDL5672020havngregsteredfreat8thFlo,Tower2,OneWotdCente,Plot84,upterTetleMlLCompound,Telephoneno.+9122618100;CcomplancefierDetalsMrTerarshiHardasTeLNo:+91226181000rEmaltearshihardas@moganstanleHardas,TeLNo:+91226180000rEmatmsccomplance@morganstanleycomwhichaceptsteresponsbltyforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwthrespectanymattersfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch,andtheiFormportantdsdosures,stockpicechartsandequityratinghstaresregardncompaniesthatarethesubjectofthsrepor,plesesetheMorganStanleyReatwwwmorganstanleycomreseachdsdosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentatveorMorganStanlyPesearchat1585Broadway(AttentonrResearchMangement,NewYorForvaluationmetodolugyandisksassocatedwithanyrecommendaton,atingorprietargetreferenedntisreseachrepotpleasecontatheClentSuportTeamHongKong+8522848599;LatinAmerca+1718754544uS);London+4(0)20-7425869;5Sngpore+6568346860;Svdney+6102970(0)368369000.AternatvelyoumaycortatyourinvestmertrepresentatveorMorganStarleyesearchat1585Broadway(ttentiorReseaThefollwinganaystshereycetfythathervewsabouthecompariesandthersecurtesdsusedinthsrepotareacuratelyexpresedandthatheyrecevedrectorndirectcompenstoninechangeforexpreshgspecficrecommendationsorvwewsinthsrepotHelenAMorganStanleyReseachhasbenpublshednacordancewthourconflctmanagementolcy,whichisavAsofDecenber31,2024,MorgaStaneybenefcalyowred1%ormoreofacdasofcommonequtysecurtesofthefolowngcompaniescoveredinMorganCorpofChinaLtd,AngloAmeican,AngloGoldAshantiltd,AnhuHongluStelConstructCompanyCSN,FotescueMetasGroupltd,GanfengLthumCa.Ltd,GerdauSA,GrasmlndustriesLtd,HarmonyGodMringCcomparyLtd,ISoLtd,lukaResourcesLCope,kobeste,LGChem,LynasRareEarths,MneralResourcesLmite,NucorCop,PaladnEnergytd,PLbaraMneralsLtd,pPoSCO,RegsResources,RoThntoLimted,SandfreResourcesLtd,shandongNanshanAluminiumCo,SbanyeStlwater,South32Ltd,SSABAB,StelDmamieshe,thWithinthelast2months,MorganStanleymanagedorcomangdapublcoferng(or144AoferngofsecurtesofAngloAmercan,AngloPlatinuWithinthelast2months,MorganStanleyhasrecevedcompensatonforinvestmentbankingsenicesfromAngloAmerican,BHarwa,JFEHoldings,KobeSteel,LGChem,NipponSteel,Snthenet3months,MorganStaneyexpectstoreceveorintendstsekcompensationforinwestmentbankngseniesfromAficanRainbowMinerals,AumnumCAmercan,AngloPatmumLmted,AngloGoldAshantuLtd,ArcelorMtalSA,BejngOrnentalYthongWateprofTechm,BHPGroupltd,CMOCGrouplt,CommerdalMetalsCcompanyCSN,EvoutoMiningExaroReslmplasLimited,JFEHodngs,JangxCope,JndalSteLAndPowerlt,SWStelLtd,kobeStel,KoreaZnc,LGChem,LotteChMMGLt,Neckelhdustris,NpponStelNorthamPatrumLimited,NorthernStarResources,NucorCop,PaladnEnergyLtdPlbaraMireratsltSandfreResourcesLtd,ShandongGoldMningCo.Ltd,shanyestlwate,SKIhnovationCoLt,South32Ltd,StTanqiLithiumIndustrieslncwithinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasrecewedcompersationforprodutsandenicesAngloGoldAshantLtd,ArcelorMitlSA,Bashanron&Ste,ChiaJush,ChinaStelCorp,ClevedandClfsne,CMOCGroupt,CSN,GlmplasLimited,SWSteLtd,KoreaElecticeP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