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EXPLORINGTHEECONOMICANDNONECONOMIC
DETERMINANTSOFINVESTMENTSINRENEWABLEENERGY
GaziSalahUddin,Md.BokhtiarHasan,DonghyunPark,Md.SumonAli,andChristofferWadstr?m
NO.740
ADBECONOMICS
August2024
WORKINGPAPERSERIES
ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK
ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries
ExploringtheEconomicandNoneconomicDeterminantsofInvestmentsinRenewableEnergy
GaziSalahUddin,Md.BokhtiarHasan,DonghyunPark,Md.SumonAli,
andChristofferWadstr?mNo.740|August2024
TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries
presentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Theviewsexpressed
arethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBor
itsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.
GaziSalahUddin(gazi.salah.uddin@liu.se)
isanassociateprofessorandChristofferWadstr?m
(christoffer.wadstrom@liu.se)isalectureratLink?ping
University,Sweden.Md.BokhtiarHasan(bokhtiar_bank@)isanassociateprofessorat
theIslamicUniversity,Bangladesh.DonghyunPark(dpark@)isaneconomicadvisoratthe
EconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpact,
AsianDevelopmentBank.Md.SumonAli
(mali7@)isPhDstudentattheUniversityofTexasatElPaso.
ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK
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?2024AsianDevelopmentBank
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Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2024.
ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(PDF)PublicationStockNo.WPS240406-2
DOI:
/10.22617/WPS240406-2
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ABSTRACT
Amidashiftingglobalenergylandscapedrivenbyconcernsaboutclimatechangeandfossilfueldepletion,thereisaheightenedneedtomovetowardsustainableenergysources.Althoughtherehasbeenasignificantincreaseininvestmentsinrenewableenergy(RE)globally,thereisstillaconsiderableshortfallinachievingsustainabilitygoals.ThisstudyisthefirsttoexplorethedeterminantsofREinvestments,consideringarangeofimportanteconomicandnoneconomicvariables.Theresearchemploysabalancedannualpaneldatasetcovering36countriesfrom2000to2020.Thefindingsindicatethat,indevelopedeconomies,industrialgrowth,environmentaltaxes,socialglobalization,andclimatevulnerabilitypositivelyinfluenceREinvestments,whileinflationandpoliticalinstabilityhavenegativeimpacts.Indevelopingeconomies,environmentaltaxes,socialglobalization,environmentaltechnologies,andclimatevulnerabilityarebeneficial,whileindustrialgrowthandoilpriceshaveadverseeffects.Thesefactorsaresignificantfor
policy,providinggovernmentsandpolicymakerswithvaluableinformationtocreate
specificstrategiestomeetglobalsustainabilitygoals.
Keywords:renewableenergyinvestments,economicandnoneconomicfactors,developedanddevelopingeconomies,paneldataestimates
JELcodes:C33,F64,Q50,Q42
1.Introduction
Recently,theglobalenergylandscapehasundergoneprofoundtransformations,drivenbyacombinationoffactors,suchasgrowingconcernsoverthenegativeimpactsofclimatechange,diminishingreservesoffossilfuels,theurgentneedtocutdowncarbonemissions,andtheinherentinstabilityinthemarketsforfossilenergy(Kilinc-AtaandDolmatov2023,OmriandJabeur2024).Inthisregard,worldleadershavemadecommitmentstolessentheuseoffossilenergy,acknowledgingitssubstantialcontributiontoglobalcarbonemissions,which,asestimatedbytheUnitedNations(2024),accountforapproximately90%.Escalatingcarbonemissionsisasignificantdriverofthecurrentclimatecrisis,leadingtowidespreadandsevereeffectsontheglobalecosystem(Silva
2008).Wethusfindourselvesinasituationwherefossilfuelreservesarecontinuouslydepleting,andthemarketsforfossilenergy,particularlyoilandgas,haveencounteredsignificantturbulenceinrecentyearsduetovariousgeopolitical,economic,andfinancialuncertainties.
Inlightofthesechallenges,theshifttowardsustainableandrenewableenergysourceshasbecomecrucialontheglobalagenda.Thistransitionisessentialtoaddressclimatechange,environmentaldegradation,andthepressingissuesofenergycrisesandsocioeconomicdisparities.Despitesubstantialglobalrenewableenergy(RE)investments,currentlyaround$2trillionannually,thereisasignificantgapcomparedtothe$5trillionyearlyinvestmentstipulatedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)until2030,andbeyondto2050,fornet-zerocarbonemissions(Lenaerts,Tagliapietra,andWolff2021).Thisshortfallpersistsdespitewidespreadgovernmentalinitiatives.Understandingwhyrenewableinvestmentslagbehindthenecessarylevelstomeetglobalsustainabilitytargetsisacrucialandnotwell-exploredtopic.ThisstimulatesustoinvestigatethepotentialdeterminantsaffectingREinvestments.
ThefactorsinfluencingREinvestmentsarecomplex,involvingacombinationofeconomicandnoneconomicelements.Previousstudiesthathighlightaspectssuchaseconomicgrowth,governmentpolicies,subsidies,incentives,environmentaltaxation,andfossilfuelpriceshaveasignificantimpactonadditionalREcapacity,asnotedinresearchbyBourcet(2020)andRajendran,Krishnaswamy,andSubramaniam(2023).Additionally,noneconomicfactorssuchasglobalization,environmentaltechnologies,
2
climatevulnerability,andpoliticalinstabilityarealsofoundtohaveanimpactonREdeployment(Bourcet2020;Rajendran,Krishnaswamy,andSubramaniam2023).Furthermore,recentstudieshavealsoindicatedthatnoneconomicfactors,althoughtheirexactimpactisnotunanimouslyagreedupon,couldhaveagreaterinfluenceonREcapacitydeploymentthaneconomicfactors,assuggestedintheresearchbyBourcet
(2020)andAbbanandHasan(2021).Thisraisesanimportantquestionthathasyettobeaddressed—whetherthesefactorsinfluenceREinvestmentssimilarlyastheirimpactonREcapacitydeployment.Theextenttowhichthesefactorsinfluenceinvestmentdecisionsandwhethertheyvaryacrossdifferentlevelsofeconomicresilienceremainsunclear.Itisaquestionwarrantingfurtherinvestigations.
Furthermore,thedifferencesinREinvestmentsacrosscountriesarestriking(Reboredo2015,AbbanandHasan2021).AsshowninFigure1,investmentsincleanenergypercapitaarenotablyhigherindevelopedeconomiescomparedtoemerginganddevelopingeconomies(excludingthePeople’sRepublicofChina[PRC]).Evenwithinthiscontext,itisimportanttonotethatthePRC’sinvestmentsalonesignificantlysurpassthoseofotheremerginganddevelopingcountries.AccordingtotheIEA(2022),thePRCledglobalcleanenergyinvestmentsin2021with$380billion,followedbytheEuropeanUnionat$260billionandtheUnitedStatesat$215billion.Hence,itappearsthatREinvestmentsaregrowingbuttheirdistributionacrosscountriesisuneven.Substantialbarrierscontinuetoexist,especiallyinemerginganddevelopingeconomies(AzarovaandJun2021).UnderstandingthesedisparitiesandthefactorsbehindthemisessentialforcraftingeffectivepoliciesaimedatincreasingREinvestmentsandachievingemissionsreductiontargets.
DespitetherecognizedimportanceofbotheconomicandnoneconomicdeterminantsofREinvestments,previousresearchinthisdomainhasexhibitedlimitations.PastliteratureprimarilyfocusedonREdeployment,measuredbyREconsumptionsorsupplyorshareintotalenergyorelectricity,toidentifyinfluencingfactors(Can?eneretal.2018;Bourcet2020;Rajendran,Krishnaswamy,andSubramaniam
2023).Themajorityofearlierstudiesconsideredeconomic,environmental,andenergy-relatedfactorsofREuse,withfewstudiesaddressingpolitical,regulatory,anddemographicfactors(Can?eneretal.2018;Bourcet2020;Rajendran,Krishnaswamy,
3
andSubramaniam2023).Moreover,thefindingsofthesestudies,particularlyonnoneconomicfactors,failedtoproviderobustconsensusonthedeterminantsofrenewableenergydeployment(Bourcet2020,AbbanandHasan2021).
Figure1:Per-capitaCleanEnergyInvestmentinSelectedRegions,2020-2022
600
500
400
$billion
300
200
100
0
525
491
412
298
264269
40
42
44
202020212022
AdvancedeconomiesPRCEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesPRC=People’sRepublicofChina.
Source:InternationalEnergyAgency.2022.WorldEnergyInvestment2022.
Furthermore,previousstudiesmainlyfocusedonthenationallevel,withanemphasisondevelopedoremergingeconomieslikethePRC,Germany,UnitedStates,andEuropeannations,whileoftenneglectingdevelopingeconomies(Bourcet2020).OnlyalimitednumberofstudieshavefocusedonREfromaninvestmentperspective,eventhoughREinvestments,measuredbyinstalledcapacity,aredeemedamoreappropriatemeasureforREdevelopment(AbbanandHasan2021).Althoughinformative,thesestudieslackcomprehensiveness,oftenexaminingonlyalimitednumberoffactorsandemployingconventionalmethodologies.Forexample,AbbanandHasan(2021)exploredtheinfluenceofgovernmentsystems(presidentialorparliamentary)onrenewableenergyinvestments(measuredbyinstalledcapacity)across60countries,revealingsignificantgovernmentnatureeffects.Similarly,usingpaneldatafrom34OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesandthe5BRICS(Brazil,theRussianFederation,India,thePRC,andSouthAfrica)countries,Kilinc-AtaandDolmatov(2023)employedinstalledcapacityasameasureofREinvestments,indicatingafavorable
4
impactfromeconomicgrowth,renewablepolicy,andresearchanddevelopmentexpenditures.
Giventhebackgroundoutlinedhereandconsideringtheidentifiedgapsintheexistingliterature,thisstudyaimstothoroughlyinvestigatebotheconomicandnoneconomicfactorsthatmayinfluenceREinvestments.Thisstudyconsidersabalancedannualpaneldatasetencompassing36countriesfor21yearsspanningfrom2000to2020,furtherdividedintotwocategories:21developedeconomiesand15emerginganddevelopingeconomies.Thisdivisionisusedtoexaminewhethertheimpactofsamplefactorsdiffersbetweenthesetwogroups.Severaleconometrictoolsareemployed:PanelCorrectedStandardErrors(PCSE),FeasibleGeneralizedLeastSquares(FGLS),andPanelQuantileRegression(QR).ThePCSEanalysisrevealsthatindevelopedeconomies,factorslikeindustrialgrowth,environmentaltaxrevenue,socialglobalization,andclimatevulnerabilitypositivelyaffectREinvestments,whileinflationandpoliticalinstabilitynegativelyimpactthem.Conversely,indevelopingcountries,environmentaltaxrevenue,socialglobalization,environmental-relatedtechnologies,andclimatevulnerabilitypositivelyinfluenceREinvestments,butindustrialgrowthandoilpriceshaveadverseeffects.ThesefindingssuggestREinvestmentsareshapedbyacombinationofbotheconomicandnoneconomicfactors,withcleardisparitiesbetweendevelopedanddevelopingcountries.SimilarfindingsareunearthedbyFGLSmodelestimations.Therefore,thesefindingsarerobustasfurthervalidatedbyQRestimatesbutevidenceanoticeablevariationinresultsacrossquantiles.
Ourstudycontributessignificantlytotheextantliteratureinseveralkeyaspects.Firstly,itaddressesacriticalgapbyfocusingonthedeterminantsofREinvestments,bridgingasubstantialvoidleftbypriorstudiesthatpredominantlyconcentratedonREdeployment.ByutilizinginstalledcapacityasaproxyforREinvestments,thisstudyalignswiththeforward-lookingaspectsofinvestmentdecisions,offeringamoreaccuratemeasureofREdevelopment.Secondly,unlikeearlierresearch,thestudyalsoadvancestheunderstandingofREinvestmentsbyexaminingabroadersetofnoneconomicfactors,suchassocialglobalization,environmentaltechnologies,climatevulnerability,andpoliticalinstability,alongsidetraditionaleconomicvariables.Moreover,itextendsbeyondtheconventionalfocusondevelopedandemergingeconomiesbyincludingdeveloping
5
countries,therebyuncoveringdifferencesintheimpactofthedeterminantsacrossmoreheterogeneouseconomicconditions.ThisdistinctionisvitalforpolicymakersasitshedslightondisparitiesinREinvestments,emphasizingtheneedfortailoredstrategiesbasedontheeconomicresilienceofeachgroup.
Methodologically,unlikepreviousrelevantstudies,thisstudyemploysmethodologiesthatencompassbothmean-basedandquantile-basedmethods.TheuseofPCSEasamean-basedtechniqueaddressescriticalissuesassociatedwithdataseries,includingnon-normality,heteroscedasticity,serialcorrelation,and,importantly,cross-sectionaldependence.Moreover,thismethodprovesparticularlyvaluablewhendealingwithasmallsamplesize,especiallywhenTislessthanN.ThestudyalsoutilizestheFGLSmodelforrobustness.Additionally,theadoptionofpanelQRasaquantile-basedapproachoffersanuancedexplorationofvariableinteractionsacrossdiversequantiles,rarelydocumentedinexistingliterature.Lastly,ourfindingsoffercrucialimplicationsforgovernmentsandpolicymakerstoformulateeffectivepolicies.ByuncoveringthedistinctimpactofdeterminantsonREinvestmentsindevelopedversusdevelopingcountries,ourresearchprovidesactionableinsightsforcraftingtargetedstrategies.Thisisparticularlypertinentinthecontextofglobalsustainabilitytargets,suchasthepursuitofnet-zeroemissionsby2050,underscoringthepracticalrelevanceandpolicysignificanceofourstudy.
Theremainderofthepaperisstructuredasfollows:Section2explainsthetheoreticalbackgroundandliterature,Section3describesthemethodologyanddiscussesthedataandpreliminaryanalysis,Section4presentstheresultsandtheirdiscussion,andSection5concludesthestudy.
2.TheoreticalBackgroundandLiterature
Aspreviouslydiscussed,determiningREinvestmentsinvolvesacomplexinterplayofeconomicandnoneconomicfactors.Economicdrivers,suchasindustrialgrowth,governmentsubsidiesandincentives,environmentaltaxationpolicies,fossilfuelprices,andinflation,collectivelyshapeinvestmenttrendsinRE.Forexample,increasedindustrialactivitiescanleadtohigherenergydemand,promptinginvestmentsinREtosustainablymeettheincreasingenergyneeds,especiallyindevelopedeconomies.
6
PreviousempiricalevidencesupportsapositivecorrelationbetweeneconomicgrowthandREinvestments(Yangetal.2019,Kilinc-AtaandDolmatov2023),underscoringthepotentiallyfavorableimpactofindustrialgrowthindrivingREinvestments.Likewise,governmentsubsidiesandincentives,includingtaxcredits,grants,andattractivefinancingoptions,alongwithenvironmentaltaxationpoliciessuchascarbonpricingandemissiontaxes,mayhaveasignificantimpactondirectingREinvestments(Yangetal.
2019).Thesesubsidiesandincentivescanpotentiallylowertheinvestmentcostsforrenewableprojects.Additionally,highertaxesoncarbonemissionsornon-renewableenergysourcesmayfurtherincentivizeinvestorstochoosecleanerandREalternatives,makingthemmorefinanciallyappealingforinvestorsandexpeditingtheadoptionofREtechnologies(Shahbazetal.2022,Sarpongetal.2023).Moreover,asfossilfuelpricesriseandbecomemorevolatile,theymaydecreaseindemandwhilesimultaneouslyincreasingtheattractivenessofREoptions(BuckleyandTrivedi2021).However,itisimportanttorecognizethattheimpactofhigherfossilfuelpricesmaynotalwaysbeunequivocallyfavorableforRE.Forinstance,anincreaseinthepriceofonefossilfuelcanleadtogreaterutilizationofalternativefuelsasobservedwhengaspricessurgedin2021,resultinginapartialreturntocoalasapowersourceinsomecountries(Jaller-Makarewicz2021,GillyandJ?rgensen2022).InflationcanalsohaveadverseeffectsonREinvestments,sinceinflationarypressurescanraiseinterestrates(i.e.,thecostofcapital)andproject-relatedexpenses,therebyincreasingtheoverallcostofREprojects(Calthrop2022).
Noneconomicfactors,includingsocialglobalization,environmentaltechnology,climatevulnerability,andpoliticalinstability,wieldsignificantinfluenceonREinvestments.Inspecificcontexts,theimpactofthesefactorsmightbemorepronouncedthanthatofeconomicdeterminants.Forexample,socialglobalization,characterizedbyaheightenedawarenessofenvironmentalandsocialissues,cancontributetothepromotionofREinvestments(Salman,Ahmad,andAlvi2023).Associetiesgrowmoreconsciousoftheimplicationsofclimatechangeandtheimportanceofsustainability,thereisagrowingdemandforRE,resultingingreatersupportforREprojects(Sinha,Sengupta,andAlvarado2020;Zafaretal.2020).Moreover,advancementsinenvironment-relatedtechnologycanimprovethefeasibilityandappealofREinvestments(Sinha,Sengupta,
7
andAlvarado2020;Qinetal.2021).Thesetechnologicalinnovationsleadtoincreasedenergyefficiency,reducedcosts,andimprovedreliability,renderingREprojectsmoreeconomicallycompetitiveandsustainable(MasiniandMenichetti2013,Sinhaetal.
2020).Likewise,regionsthatareparticularlyvulnerabletoclimate-relatedrisks,suchasareaspronetoextremeweathereventsorsea-levelrise,maydriveREinvestmentsastheneedtoincreaseresilienceandreducecarbonemissionsbecomesmoreapparent,promptinggreaterinterestinREsolutionscapableofmitigatingclimate-relatedrisks(Wenetal.2023).Finally,governmentspronetoquickdestabilizationduetounstablepoliticsposeasignificantbarriertoREinvestments.Insuchprecariouspoliticalcircumstances,thesuccessofREprojectsisoftencompromised,leadingindividualsandcompaniestodelayinvestinguntilpoliticalstabilityisretained(Zhangetal.2022,VanSongetal.2023).WhileheightenedgeopoliticalinstabilityandriskcandiscourageREinvestments,itcanalsoparadoxicallyincreasethedemandforRE,particularlyincountriesthatimportfossilfuels.Thisisbecausethesenationsmayseektodecreasetheirdependenceonfossilfuelsandlowerimportcosts,thuspotentiallyboostinginvestmentsinRE(Zhangetal.2022,Wangetal.2022).
3.MaterialandMethods
Themodeldescribedherespecifiesthedependentvariable,namelyREinvestments,asafunctionofasetofexplanatoryvariablesthatencompassbotheconomicandnoneconomicfactors.ThegeneralformofthemodelisexpressedinEquation1:
lnREIit=α+β1lnINDit+β2lnTRit+β3lnINit+β4lnoPit+β5lnGLoit+
β6lnERTit+β7lnvuLit+β8PIit+Eit,(1)
where,lnREI,lnIND,lnTR,lnIN,lnOP,lnGLO,lnERT,InVUL,andPIrepresentrenewableenergyinvestments,industrialgrowth,environmentaltaxrevenue,inflationrate,oilprice,socialglobalization,environment-relatedtechnology,climatevulnerability,andpoliticalinstability,respectively.αdenotestheintercept,Erepresentstheerrorterm,andβrepresentstheparametersandcanbeinterpretedaselasticitiesofthedependentvariablesrelativetoeachexplanatoryvariable.lnisthenaturallogarithmofeachvariable,idenotesthecross-sectionalunit(i.e.,thecountry),andtistime.
8
Theanalysisstartsbytestingthecross-sectionaldependence(CSD),slopehomogeneitytest,andstationarityissuesinherentinpaneldata,acriticalconsiderationoftenencounteredinsuchdatasets.ConsideringthestationarityandCSDissuesoutlinedinsubsection4.1,thestudyadoptsKao’s(1999)test,asrecommendedbyliterature(e.g.,CamareroandTamarit2002;Gengenbach,Palm,andUrbain2005;Alametal.2015),toactivelyinvestigatethelong-run(equilibrium)associationorcointegrationamongthevariables.Kao’stest,recognizedforitssuperiorperformancewithsmallsamplesizes,particularlywhentime(T)islessthancross-sectionunits(N)(Gutierrez2003),adeptlyaddressesbothstationarityandCSDissues(Kao1999,CamareroandTamarit2002).
Giventheidentifiedcointegration,outlinedinsubsection4.2,andtheinherentdatasetchallengesmentionedpreviously,thestudyselectsthePCSEapproach,endorsedbyexistingliterature(e.g.,ReedandWebb2010,Millo2017,Adeleyeetal.
2023).Thismodeleffectivelyhandlesissuessuchasheteroscedasticityandserialcorrelation(Adeleyeetal.2023).EmpiricaltestingbyMillo(2017)andReedandWebb(2010)atteststothePCSEmodel’sabilitytoyieldprecisestandarderrorestimateswithminimalefficiencyloss,particularlyunderlargecross-sectionalunits(i.e.,N>T).Additionally,toassesstherobustnessandconsistencyofthePCSEestimates,thisstudyalsoincorporatestheFGLSapproach.SincebothestimatorscanyieldrobustestimationsinthepresenceofheteroskedasticityandCSDinthepaneldatasets(Millo2017,LeandNguyen2019),itwouldbeusefultocomparethefindingsandofferrobustandreliableoutcomes.
Giventhenon-normalityofalldataseriesacrosssamplesandthepresenceofpotentialtaileddependence,thestudyadditionallyemploysthepanelQRapproachproposedbyKoenker(2004).Thismethodcapturesheterogeneouseffectsacrossdifferentquantilesoftheconditionaldistribution,providingrobustestimatesinthepresenceofoutliers.ThepanelQRmodel,lesssensitivetotailbehaviorandoutlierscomparedtotraditionalmodelslikefixed-effectsorrandom-effects,isdeemedsuperiorforhandlingdistributionalheterogeneityinpaneldata(Galvao2011,Akrametal.2020).InadditiontoPCSEandFGLSanalyses,thepanelQRapproachisemployedbecauseitcapturesallsignificantvariationsbetweenpredictedandobservedvariablesandthusavoidsinaccurateregressioncoefficients(Akrametal.2020).
9
3.1DataandDescriptiveStatistics
Thedatasetconsistsofannualpaneldatafor36economies,21developedand15emerginganddevelopingcountries,betweentheyears2000to2020.1Thetimeperiodandeconomiesarechosenbasedontheavailabilityofdataforvariablesused,whichpermitsestimationsusingstronglybalancedpaneldata.Moreover,thecountriesareorderedaccordingtotheirincomelevelbasedontheAtlasmethodoftheWorldBank.Thedependentvariable,REinvestments,isrepresentedbytheannualglobaladditionsinphotovoltaic(PV)capacity,particularlynewinstallations.ThisischosenbecausesolarPVandnewwindpowercapacitymakeupover80%ofglobalrenewableenergyinvestments(IEA2022).Inthisstudy,installedPVcapacityreflectsinvestmentinexpandingPVsolarenergycapacity,signifyingcommitmentstofutureREgeneration(AbbanandHasan2021).UnlikeothermetricssuchasREconsumptionandsupply,whichassessavailability,newPVcapacityoffersamoreforward-lookingandinvestment-focusedmetric.ThismoreaccuratelyreflectsthegrowthandexpansionofRE,makingitamoresuitableindicatorfortrackingadvancementsintheREsector(KimandPark2016,Bourcet2020,AbbanandHasan2021).
Furthermore,thestudyincorporateseighteconomicandnoneconomicfactors,encompassingindustrialgrowth(measuredbyindustryvalueaddedinconstant2015UnitedStates[US]dollars);environmentaltaxrevenue(measuredbyenvironmentaltaxes,fees,andcharges,deposit-refundsystems,andtradablepermitstotalvalueinUSmilliondollars);oilprices(measuredbyBrentcrudepriceinUSdollarsperbarrel);inflation(measuredbyconsumerpriceannualpercentage);socialglobalizationindex(measuredbypersonalcontact,culturalproximity,andinformationf
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