2024年年中煤炭市場(chǎng)報(bào)告-Coal Mid-Year Update 202407

CoalMid-YearUpdate

July2024

>

>

INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyand

demand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Throughitswork,theIEA

advocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethe

reliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits

31membercountries,

13association

countriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIreland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

LuxembourgMexico

NetherlandsNewZealandNorway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublicSpain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

CoalMid-yearUpdateAbstract

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

Coalmarketsarestabilisingfollowingrecentyearsofuncertaintyunleashedbytheglobalenergycrisis.Coalremainstheprimaryglobalenergysourceforelectricitygeneration,andincreaseddemandforelectricitycontinuestofuelglobalcoaldemand.Cleanenergytechnologiessuchassolar,windandhydropoweraregainingtractionbutwhatimpacthaverecentworldeventshadontheiruptake,andareweyetatthepointofastructuraldeclineincoaldemand?

ThisCoalMarketUpdate,whichprovidesthelatestanalysisofcoaldemand,production,tradeandprices,findsthatcoaldemand,supplyandtradevolumesreachedanall-timehighin2023,confirmingpreviousforecasts.Italsoprovidespreliminaryestimatesforthefirsthalfof2024andoutlooksforthefullyear2024andtowards2025,basedonrecenttrends,dataandforecastsforeconomicgrowthacrossregions.

Coalcontinuestobethelargestsourceofcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsand,whilecarboncapture,utilisationandstoragetechnologiescanhelpreducecoal-relatedCO2emissions,theongoinguseofcoalhasmajorimplicationsforeffortstoreachinternationalenergyandclimategoals.

CoalMid-yearUpdateOverview

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|4

Overview

Demand

Globalcoaldemandin2023grewby2.6%toreachanall-timehigh

DrivenmainlybystronggrowthinthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandHongKong(hereafter,“China”)of6%,or276milliontonnes(Mt),andinIndia(9.2%or105Mt),globalcoaldemandgrewby2.6%in2023,toreachanewrecordof8.7billiontonnes.TheincreasesinChinaandIndiamorethanoffsetsignificantdeclinesintheEuropeanUnion(-22.5%or-103Mt)andtheUnitedStates(-17.3%or-81Mt)

Coalconsumptiongrewinbothelectricitygenerationandindustrialsectors,wheretheironandsteelindustryisthelargestconsumer.Powergenerationfromcoalincreasedby1.9%in2023to10690terawatt-hours(TWh),settinganewrecord.Asaresult,coalcontinuestobethelargestsourceofglobalelectricitygenerationglobally.

In2024,globalcoaldemandisexpectedtostaybroadlyflat

ArecoveryinhydropowerinChinacombinedwithsignificantexpansionofwindandsolarisexpectedtoslowthegrowthofcoalpowergenerationgloballyin2024,albeitwithcontrastingtrendsacrossdifferentregions.SinceApril,hydropowerproductioninChinahasrebounded,butelectricityconsumptioninChinahasgrownstronglyduetorobustincreasesindemandbothintheservicessectorandindustry.Atthesametime,coal-intensiveheavyindustriesinChina(i.e.cementandsteel)continuetostruggleduetothesluggishrealestatesector.

CoaldemandincreasedinbothIndiaandVietNaminthefirsthalfof2024duetostrongelectricitydemandandlowhydropoweroutput.Meanwhile,India’seconomyisgrowingrapidly,pushingupindustrialcoalconsumption.However,India’scoaldemandgrowthisexpectedtoslowinthesecondhalfof2024,astheunusuallystrongincreaseindemandinthefirsthalfoftheyearwasdrivenbyexceptionalweatherconditions.

IntheUnitedStates,wherecoalusehasbeenindeclinesince2008,coaldemandremainedalmostunchangedyear-on-yearinthefirsthalfof2024duetolowerswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasintheelectricitysector.IntheEuropeanUnion,aftera22%declineincoaldemandin2023,weexpectadecreaseof19%in2024,

CoalMid-yearUpdateOverview

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

mostlydrivenbytheelectricitysector,wheretheexpansionofrenewablescontinueswhiledemandremainsrelativelyweak.

Basedonourcurrentassumptions,weexpectglobalcoaldemandtoremainbroadlyflatforthefullyear.However,weather,economicactivity,naturalgaspricesandotherfactorscouldstillresultinslightfluctuations.ThisisparticularlytrueforChina’selectricity,sectorwhichaccountsforone-thirdofglobalcoaldemand.

In2025,globalcoaldemandisforecastremainonaplateau

Theelectricitysectoraccountsfortwo-thirdsofglobalcoaldemand.Inmostcountries,coaldemandinthepowersectorfluctuatesmoresignificantlythaninindustrialsectors,largelybecausetherearefewersubstitutionoptionsforindustrialcoaluse.Assuch,changesinglobalcoaldemandtrendsaremainlydrivenbytheelectricitysector.Atthesametime,theincreasingimpactsofunforeseenextremeweathereventsismakingelectricitydemandhardertopredictintheshortterm.

Ataregionallevel,coaldemandinadvancedeconomiesisclearlyonadownwardtrend–whileinsomeemergingeconomies,furthergrowthindemandisverylikely.ThisleavesChinaasthekeyvariable.Giventhemostrecentdata,globalcoaldemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlyunchangedin2025comparedwith2024,ataround8.7billiontonnes.

Supply

Globalcoalproductionreachedanall-timehighin2023,closeto9billiontonnes

In2023,productionbythethreelargestcoalproducers,accountingfor70%ofglobaloutput,grewconsiderably:China(3.4%),India(12%)andIndonesia(13%).Asaresult,globalcoalproductionreachedanall-timehighof8.9billiontonnes.

Chinaexpandedcoalproductiontoguaranteeenergysecurityandreducepricevolatility.InIndia,energysecurityisalsoahighpriority,asfrequentshortagesinthepasthaveturnedattentiontowardreducingimports.Indonesia’sproduction,despitetheincreasingdomesticneed,isexportoriented.Assuch,itsproductiongrewin2023tomeetdemandininternationalmarkets.IntheUnitedStates,thefourthlargestproducer,coaloutputdeclinedby2.8%,muchlessthandemand,duetohigherexportsandstockbuilding.IntheRussianFederation(hereafter,‘Russia’)datashowonlyaslightdeclineinproduction,despiteexportsbeingsubjecttosanctions.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Productionlevelsin2024areexpectedtobesimilarto2023

Ouranalysisforthefirsthalfof2024showsaslightdeclineinglobalcoalproductionof0.7%year-on-year,drivenmostlybyChina,whichrecordedadeclineof1.7%.Responsibleforhalfofglobalcoaloutput,ChinahasintensifiedsafetychecksinShanxiprovince,thecountry’slargestproducingregion,whichaccountedfor1.3billiontonnesofcoaloutputin2023.Pressuretoincreasedomesticproductionhasdeclinedduetoslowingdemandgrowth,healthystocksacrossthesupplychain,andhigherimports.Indiacontinuestoencourageproductiontoavoidcoalshortagesandreduceimports.Meanwhile,Indonesiaaimstoproduce720Mtin2024,buthasminingapprovalsformorethan900Mt.

Indonesia’scoalproductionwillultimatelydependoninternationaldemand,inparticular,thatofChina.

Assumingnonewsafetyinspectionprogrammes,Chineseproductionissettorecoverpartiallyinthesecondhalfof2024toresultinaslightdecreaseof0.8%.InIndia,thestrongpushtoincreaseproductioncontinuesandevenintensifies.

CoalIndia,thecornerstoneofdomesticproduction,isincreasingproductionatgrowthratescloseto10%.However,productionbycaptiveblocksandcommercialminesisgrowingmuchfaster.InIndonesia,weexpectlittlegrowthafterlastyear’ssurge.

IntheUnitedStates,coalproductionisestimatedtohavedeclined17%inthefirsthalfof2024,partiallyduetoahighercomparisonbasein2023andhighstocksinpowerplants.DespitecoaldemandintheUnitedStatesremainingflatinthefirsthalfof2024ratherthandecreasing,UScoalproductionissettocontinuetodeclinebecauseofhighstocks.InRussia,productionisforecasttoremainstablein2024,withdomesticdemandstillrobustandexportsexpectedtodeclineslightly.InEurope,coalproductionissettodecline.Againstthisbackdrop,ouranalysisindicatesamarginaldecreaseinglobalcoalproductionin2024.

Trade

Globalcoaltradevolumesreachedanall-timehighin2023

Thedecreaseofaround50Mtintwokeyimportingareas,EuropeandNortheastAsia(Japan,KoreaandChineseTaipei)wasmorethanoffsetbygrowthinIndia,SoutheastAsiaandChinain2023.Chineseimportsreachedunprecedentedlevelsof480Mt,surpassingtheformerrecordby140Mtor40%.Thiswasduetostrongdemand,stockbuilding,andlowerpricesthanin2021-2022,whichmadeimportsmoreattractivedespiteChina’sboostindomesticcoalproductionsince

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

October2021.Thispushedtheglobalinternationalcoaltradevolumeabove2019highs,surpassing1.5billiontonnesforthefirsttime.Seabornecoaltradealsoreachedanall-timehighof1.38billiontonnes.

Allmajorexportersincreasedvolumesin2023,exceptforRussia,duetosanctions.Indonesiabecamethefirstexportingcountrytoexceed500Mtinayear,demonstratingitsunmatchedflexibilitytorampupproductionandexports.Mongoliaincreasedexportsto70Mt,morethandoublingthe2022figureandmorethanquadrupling2021exports,propelledbyimprovementsininfrastructureandthedemandinChinaforcheapcoal.

Tradevolumesareexpectedtoreachanewhighin2024

TheweakcoaldemandinEuropeandNortheastAsiawillresultinlowercoalimports.Japan,Korea,ChineseTaipei,GermanyandothercountriesintheEuropeanUnion(EU)areamongthoseinwhichcoalimports,inparticularthermalcoal,areexpectedtodecline.Bycontrast,inChina,IndiaandVietNam,weexpectcoalimportstoincrease.Theanalysisshowstradevolumesin2024willsurpass2023volumesmarginallyandhitanewrecord.However,thiscomeswithanimportantcaveat,notablythepotentialforvolatileswingsinChina’simportvolumesiftherearepolicychanges.

Onthesupplyside,Indonesia,andtoalesserextent,Australia,ColombiaandtheUnitedStates,areexpectedtosupplytheadditionalvolumesrequiredtomeetothers’importdemandandoffsetreducedRussianexports.MongolianexportstoChina,mostlycokingcoal,areexpectedtogrow.

Prices

Morestabilityinpricesafterrecentvolatility

Theunusualmarketconditionsofrecentyears,duetotheCovid-19pandemic,theeconomicrebound,Russia’sinvasionofUkraine,andthesubsequentenergy

crisis,haveledtounprecedentedenergypricefluctuations.Theimpactoncoal

wassignificant,resultinginveryhighpricesandvolatilityaswellasexceptional

differencesbetweenqualitiesandgeographicalregions.Since2023,coalpriceshaveremainedhigherthanbeforetheCovid-19pandemicbutremaininanormalrange.Duringthelastyear,thermalcoalpriceshavebeenlessstablethaninthe2017-2019period.Generally,theyhavebeenslightlyhigher,pushedupbycost

inflationandsomedisruptionduetosanctionsaffectingRussia,whichremainstheworld’sthirdlargestcoalexporter.

CoalMid-yearUpdateDemand

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

Demand

Globalcoaldemandsawanotherall-timehighin2023

Inlinewithourestimatesin

Coal2023,

globalcoaldemandreachedanewrecordof8.70billiontonnes(Bt)in2023,surpassingthepreviousyear’srecordby2.6%.Onceagain,globalcoalconsumptionwasledbyAsiawheremorethan80%ofcoalconsumptiontookplace.Conversely,EuropeandtheUnitedStatessawsignificantdeclinesincoalconsumptionin2023.

China,theworld’slargestproducer,importer,andconsumerofcoal,wasrecordedwithgrowthinbothpower(8%)andnon-power(2.5%)useofcoal.Aftersevereenergyshortagesandoverallweakeconomicperformancein2022,electricitydemandinChinareboundedin2023growingby7%.Despiteacceleratingdeploymentofwindandsolar,mostofthisgrowthwasmetbycoal-firedpowergenerationduetolowavailabilityofhydroelectricplants,ascoalisthemainsourceofflexibility.Togetherwithmoderategrowthinmetallurgical(met)coalconsumptionandalmostflatdemandfornon-powerusesofthermalcoal,China’scoalconsumptionincreasedby276Mt,reachingatotalof4883Mtin2023.Theoverallenergyconsumptiongrowthrateofcoalwasslightlylowerduetoaqualitydeteriorationfollowingaleapinthedomesticproductionofcoal.

Indiahasbeenthesecondlargestsourceofgrowthinglobalcoalconsumption.Itsstrongeconomicperformancehaspropelledpowerdemand,andinturn,demandforcoalinpowergeneration(+10%).Unlikeinmanyotherpartsoftheworld,inIndia,growthinrenewableenergysourcesisunabletokeeppacewiththegrowthinpowerdemand.Moreover,India’sfocusoninfrastructurehasledtomoreconsumptionofcementandsteel,materialstypicallyproducedwithcoal.Asaresult,overallcoalconsumptionaggregatedto1251Mtin2023,anincreaseof9%comparedtothepreviousyear.

CoalconsumptionintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionplungedby17%and23%respectivelyin2023,representingtheirmostsignificantannualdeclineofthiscenturyapartfromthereductioncausedbyCovid-19.IntheUnitedStates,coalconsumptiondecreasedbecauseoftheretirementofcoalplants,decreasingpowerdemandandlowgasprices.Atthesametime,afterhighcoalconsumptionin2022,coaldemandinEuropereturnedtoadecline,thetrendformostofthiscentury.

Beyondthat,thereweresignificantregionaldifferencesincoaldemand.WhilecoalconsumptionintheASEANregionmostlyincreased(+38Mt),countrieslikeJapan,KoreaandAustraliasawmoderatedeclinesbelow10%.

IEA.CCBY

PAGE|9

Growthinglobalcoaldemandisexpectedtoflatlinein2024

Duringthefirstsixmonthsof2024weexpectglobalcoalconsumptiontohavegrownby1.0%toatotalof4308Mt.Thisisdespiteconsumptionofcoalbeingexpectedtoremainunchangedinnon-powerapplications.However,coalconsumptioninthepowersectorisexpectedtohavegrownby1.4%.ThemajorcontributorstogrowthwithinthepowersectorhavebeenIndia(+44Mt)andChina(+22Mt),whiletheEuropeanUnionisestimatedtoexhibitthestrongestdecline(-2Mt).

Inthesecondhalfof2024,weexpectadeclineincoal-firedpowergenerationtopartiallyoffsetgainsfromthefirsthalf,resultingincoalconsumptioninthepowersectorof5886Mtforthefullyear,up0.5%.Togetherwithstableconsumptionofcoalinnon-powerapplicationsinthesecondhalfof2024,thiswouldimplyaslightincreaseinglobalcoalconsumption.Weexpectittoreach8737Mt(+0.4%)forthefullyear2024.

Inourlastpublicationweforecastedcoaldemandwoulddecreasein2024withamoderatedeclinethereafter.However,thisforecastwassubjecttotwoimportantcaveats:arecoveryofhydropowergenerationinChinaafteryearsoflowrainfall,andaslowdowninChineseelectricitydemandgrowth.WhilehydropowerhasmadeastrongrecoverysinceApril2024,growthinelectricitydemandinChinahasremainedrobust.InIndia,thesecondlargestcoalconsumer,heatwavesandlowavailabilityofhydropowerinthefirsthalfof2024haveincreasedtheuseofcoalforpowergenerationandtherefore,coaldemand.Inaddition,countrieslikeVietNamandtheUnitedStateshavecontributedtotheadjustmentinourforecastfor2024duetoweatherincidentsandreducedswitchtogas.

FollowingtheEU’smajordropincoalconsumptionin2023,weexpecttheEuropeanUniontoshowanothersignificantreductionin2024.Afterthedifficultiesofthe2022energycrisis,anddespitetheunprecedentedriseingaspricesbeinglargelyovercome,theEuropeanUnioncontinuestoshowweakindustrialactivityandstagnatinggrowthinpowerdemand.Here,theriseofrenewablescombinedwithimprovedperformanceofnuclearisexpectedtosignificantlyaffectcoaldemand.WeestimatetheEU’scoaldemandwillshrinkby19%downto287Mt,makingitthefirsttimeinIEArecordsthatthecoaldemandofEUcountriesfallsbelow300Mt.Conversely,weestimatetheUnitedStatestoshownosignificantchangesincoalconsumptionin2024afterlastyear’sbigdecline.Lastyear,weforecastadecline,butthegrowthinpowerdemandishigherthanexpectedandthecoal-to-gasswitchhasreduced.

4.0.

InChina,weestimatethatcoal-firedpowergenerationincreasedabout1.5%duringthefirsthalfof2024.HighprecipitationstartinginApril2024increasedtheavailabilityofhydroelectricpower.Giventheacceleratingdeploymentof

CoalMid-yearUpdateDemand

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

renewables,particularlysolarPV,weestimateChinesecoaldemandinthepowersectorwillgrowby0.9%in2024.Thiswouldbethelowestgrowthratesince2015.However,thereissignificantuncertaintyconcerningtheavailabilityofhydropowerandthegrowthinpowerdemand,whicharekeydeterminantsforcoaldemandinChina.CoalisusedformanydifferentapplicationsbeyondthepowersectorinChina.Theironandsteelindustry,consumingmostlymetcoal,isthelargestnon-powerconsumer.Productionofbuildingmaterials(mainlycement)andchemicals(mostlythroughcoalgasification)arethemainconsumersofthermalcoal.Overall,weexpectnon-powerdemandtoremainflatamiddeclininguseinthebuildingsectorowingtoadraggingrealestatemarket,whereasconsumptionofcoalusedforcoalgasificationisexpectedtoincrease.

InIndia,forthefirsthalfof2024weestimatetheconsumptionofthermalcoalforpowergenerationtohaveincreasedalmost10%andmetcoalconsumptioninIndiatohaveincreasedbyjustover2%.Heatwaveshaveescalatedelectricitydemandwhilehydropoweroutputhasbeenverylow.Withthistrendlikelytodeclineduringthesecondhalfoftheyear,weestimateacoaldemandof1330Mtin2024,up6%comparedto2023.WeakperformanceofhydropowerandstronggrowthinpowerdemandarealsocausingsignificantgrowthincoaldemandinVietNamduring2024(+12%).

Globalcoalconsumption,2022-2024

Mt

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

ChinaIndiaUnitedEuropeanASEANRestof

StatesUnionworld

202220232024(forecast)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

Changesinglobalcoalconsumption,H12023-H12024

Mt

4350

4300

4250

4200

4150

4100

H12023H12024(forecast)

ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnion

ASEANRestofworldTotaldemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Coaldemandisestimatedtodeclinemarginallyin2025

In2025,weestimateglobalcoaldemandtoenteratrendreversalafterfouryearsofgrowth,decreasingslightlyby0.3%toatotalof8714Mt.AkeyreasonforthisisthatChina,whichhastraditionallydrivencoaldemandgrowth,islikelytoshowitsfirstdeclineincoaldemandsince2016.ThiscombinedwithongoingdeclinesintheEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,Japan,Korea,andotherpartsoftheworld,isexpectedtooutweighcontinuousgrowthinIndiaandASEAN.

Globalcoalconsumptionishighlydrivenbydevelopmentsinthepowersector,whichcurrentlyaccountsformorethantwo-thirdsofglobalcoaluse.Withinthepowersector,coaldemandishighlyaffectedbyweather.Fluctuationsinweatherconditionsinfluenceboththesupplyanddemandside,particularlyrelatingtothegrowingcapacitiesofweather-dependentrenewableenergysourcesandongoingelectrification.Additionally,fundamentaldrivers,suchastheproductionofcleanenergytechnologieslikeelectricvehiclesorglobaltrendslikeAIpropellingdemandfromdatacentres,willhaveasignificantimpactonelectricitydemand,andinturn,coaldemandinthecomingyears.Indeed,policiestophaseoutcoalandreducedsupportforcoalfrominstitutionslikebanksorinsurersinmanypartsoftheworldaregoingtoputfurtherpressureoncoaldemand.Regionally,theexpecteddeclineincoaldemandindevelopedeconomiesandthegrowthinsomeemergingcountriesseemscertain,leavingChinaasthelargestsourceofuncertainty,potentiallydecidingtheglobaltrendforcoaldemand.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

For2025,weestimateChinesecoaldemandinthepowersectortodeclineby1.1%,sincerenewablesarelikelytooutgrowpowerdemand.However,thisforecastcomeswithcaveatsregardingelectricitydemand,hydropoweroutputandsolarPVcurtailmentrates.Iftherearenoremarkablechangesincoaldemandfornon-powerapplications,Chinaisestimatedtoshowareductionby49Mtin2025,contributingthemosttothereductioninglobalcoaldemand.On15July,2024,ChinaissuedtheActionPlanforLow-CarbonCoalPowerTransformation(2024-2027),whichsupportsthreekeytechnologiestoreduceCO2emissionsfromcoalplants:biomass,ammoniaco-firingandCarbon,Capture,UtilisationandStorage.ThisPlanwillaffectcoalconsumptioninChinafrom2025onwards,butitistooearlytomakeadetailedassessmentoftheimpact,soitisnotincludedinthisreport.

FurtherreductionsincoaldemandareestimatedtooccurintheUnitedStates(-8Mtor-2.0%)andintheEuropeanUnion(-9Mtor-3.0%)giventheregion’songoingeffortstophaseoutcoal.

InIndia,theriseofrenewableswilllikelynotcoverthegrowthinpowerdemand.Therefore,weexpectcoalplantstocapturepartofthegrowth.GivenIndia’srisingdemandforcoalinindustrialapplications,weestimateaggregatecoaldemandtoincreaseby3.1%to1371Mtin2025.In2024,Indiaaimstocommission14GWofnewcoal-firedcapacity,morethanfourtimestheannualaverageinthelastfiveyears.Likewise,coaldemandinASEANisestimatedtogrowby3.0%in2025.

Changesincoalconsumptionbycountry,2023-2025

Mt

8800

8750

8700

8650

8600

8550

8500

2023

China

EuropeanUnionJapan

2024

(forecast)

India

ASEAN

URestofworld

2025

(forecast)

UnitedStatesKorea

OTotaldemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

CoalMid-yearUpdateSupply

July2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

Supply

Globalcoalproductionin2023grewcloseto9Bt

Globalcoalproductionin2023grewby3.1%to8970Mt,anall-timehigh,drivenbyapushfromthetopthreecoalproducersChina,IndiaandIndonesia.Theircombinedtotalcoaloutputincreasedbyabout356Mt,comparedto2022,resultinginashareof72%ofglobalcoalproduction.Atthebeginningofthiscentury,thissharestoodatslightlymorethanathirdofglobalproduction,underscoringthesubstantialshiftinglobalcoalproductionoverthelasttwodecades.

Aftersupplyshortagesin2021,Chineseofficialscalledforaboostinproduction,whichresultedinasignificantincreasein2022,andcontinuousgrowththroughout2023.Nonetheless,theriseinproductioncamewithahigherrateofmineaccidentsandanotabledeteriorationofquality.GivenChina’sgrowingcoaloutputandgrowingimportvolumes,ithasshownatotalsupplyofcoaltotallingmorethan5Bt,whichdramaticallyexceedsanyothercountryorregion.

InIndonesia,productionreached775Mt,significantlyexceedingtheproductiontargetofcloseto700Mtfor2023.GrowthindomesticrequirementaswellasdemandfromChinaandotherimportersinthatregionhavepropelledthesurgeinIndonesiancoalproduction.

Asexpectedinourpreviousforecast,Indiahassurpassedthemarkof1Btofcoalproductionin2023,showingagrowthof12%or116Mt.InIndia,recentinvestmentininfrastructureandinmineexpansionshassupportedincreasedcoalproduction.

In2023,Australianproductiongrewbyabout3.8%to450Mt.InAustralia,achangeinweatherpatternfromLaNi?at