家用電器行業(yè)專(zhuān)題研究：從海外龍頭2024Q2財(cái)報(bào)評(píng)估家電外銷(xiāo)走勢(shì)

證券研究報(bào)告從海外龍頭2024Q2財(cái)報(bào)評(píng)估家電外銷(xiāo)走證券研究報(bào)告請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明|分析師及聯(lián)系人|分析師及聯(lián)系人SAC：S0590523100007SAC：S0590523110003SA請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明比下滑3%及同比基本持平。過(guò)去十年，美國(guó)家電季度出貨為2.8%/2.0%，西歐為-0.5%及0%，東歐為-0.5%及2比增長(zhǎng)中個(gè)位數(shù)核心邏輯：1）據(jù)排產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，2024Q3空調(diào)出5家延續(xù);2)品類(lèi)上，暖通空調(diào)總體仍?xún)?yōu)于消費(fèi)電器,歐美消費(fèi)電器仍是弱復(fù)蘇狀當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)，我們認(rèn)為家電兼具高賠率及高勝率，核心邏輯在于：1）內(nèi)銷(xiāo)有政策，請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明 62.我國(guó)家電出口——大概率仍超越中樞 83.海外龍頭2024Q2——收入改善，預(yù)期 4.業(yè)績(jī)確定性較強(qiáng)，維持“強(qiáng)于大市”評(píng)級(jí) Whirlpool：維持全年收入指引，下調(diào)盈利指引 Trane：訂單強(qiáng)勁，維持財(cái)年收入指引 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明4/35 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明比下滑3%及基本持平。結(jié)合過(guò)去十年的家電出貨季度增速來(lái)20%10%0%-20%USmajorappliancesshipments——USCoreappliancesshipments03Q303Q103Q303Q104Q304Q124Q123Q323Q122Q322Q121Q321Q120Q320Q119Q319Q118Q318Q117Q317Q116Q316Q115Q315Q114Q314Q113Q313Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q307Q106Q306Q105Q305Q140%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%WesternEuropeCoreappliancesshipmentsEasternEuropeCoreappliancesshipments（exTurkey）24Q123Q323Q124Q123Q323Q122Q322Q121Q321Q120Q320Q119Q319Q118Q318Q117Q317Q116Q316Q115Q315Q114Q314Q113Q313Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q307Q106Q306Q105Q305Q104Q304Q103Q303Q11由于土耳其通脹超過(guò)80%，為避免干擾，本報(bào)告未將請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明零售方面，美國(guó)2024Q2電子和家用電器零售店銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)2.2%，好于補(bǔ)庫(kù)存跡象。歐洲我們?nèi)狈译娂?xì)分零售數(shù)據(jù)，從偏宏觀(guān)的歐洲整體的零售表現(xiàn)來(lái)美國(guó):電子和家用電器店零售額:季調(diào)（億美元）美國(guó):電子和家用電器店零售額:季調(diào):同比（右軸）9015%7510%75605%60450%4530-5%30-10%2014-012014-052014-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-050美國(guó):家具、家用裝飾、電子和家用電器店零售庫(kù)存:季調(diào)（億美元）美國(guó):家具、家用裝飾、電子和家用電器店零售庫(kù)比:季調(diào)（右軸）4002.03501.93001.82501.72001.61501.51001.4501.32014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明————————請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明9/3580%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%24Q224Q123Q423Q323Q223Q122Q422Q322Q222Q121Q421Q321Q221Q120Q420Q320Q220Q124Q224Q123Q423Q323Q223Q122Q422Q322Q222Q121Q421Q321Q221Q120Q420Q320Q220Q1金金人民幣:器:當(dāng)季同比器:當(dāng)季同比80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%24Q224Q123Q423Q323Q223Q122Q422Q322Q222Q121Q421Q321Q221Q120Q420Q320Q220Q124Q224Q123Q423Q323Q223Q122Q422Q322Q222Q121Q421Q321Q221Q120Q420Q320Q220Q1出口量出口量YOYYOY20230420230520230620230620230720230823M4-24M6空調(diào)分地區(qū)出口量月度同比增速202309202310202311202312202401202402202403202404202405202406總計(jì)6%3%15%-6%27% 48%24%23%28%14%4%16%15%3%21%-6%23%28%15%21%7%24%19%54%-24%64%64%62%62%30%23%-25%-8%-16%-11%2%-18%-16%-36%6%-4%14%21%8%5% 47% 47%7%24%74%74%76%76%119%119%88%88%144%144%101%101%96%96%28%13%-13%-39%-1%-41%6%-7%-42%-40%-31%0%-33%-21%-20%-5%-40%-46%-13%2%60%60%72%72%92%92%13%-5%13%114%126%30%23%27% 64%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲 136% 23M4-24M6冰箱冰柜分地區(qū)出口量月度同比增速202304202305202306202307202308202309114%126%30%23%27% 64%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲 136%總計(jì)0%25%26%34%66%63%43%20%29%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲6%-11%28% 69%7%67% 34%19%19%8%8%21%20%32%37%41%9%-6%-13%4%34%40%50%20%73%69%50%107%107%90%90%34%90%90%14%9%-8%10%36%63%71%43%67%36%30%29%22%26%2%113%113%100%100%120%120%104%104%155%155%176%176%115%115%105%105%126%126% 75%103%103%-32%-9%-5%3%22%69%93%93%118%118%82%82%31%29%-23%-27%-28%-25%23%7%39%17%33%36%45%13%9%3% 23M4-24M6洗衣機(jī)分地區(qū)出口量月度同比增速202304202305202306202307202308202309202310202311202312202401202402202403202404202405202406總計(jì)51%49%56%28%48%56%43%46%37%54%34%17%18%19%18%2%4%16%76%2%25%13%12%2%4%16%76%2%25%13%12%16%52%-17%38%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲51%31%28%-6%8%38%16%16%9%36%0%2%10%99%53%103%194%194%148%148%54%120%120%47%93%131%131%-4%-2%67%77%113%113%68%71%49%53%58%71%61%63%33%28%38%75%65%62%123%123%61%98%100%85%98%90%58%37%23%52%132%132%110%50%208%82%100%27%61%39%8%-2%-8%-11%-13%-14%14%61%89%92%97%34%-3%43%23M4-24M6電視分地區(qū)出口量月度同比增速202304202305202306202307202308202309202310202311202312202401202402202403202404202405202304202305202306總計(jì)6%2%13%4%12%6%8%-4%9%-6%5%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲-2%-7% 47%-8%-35%-7%-21% 48%12%-49%-22% 9%-2%-23%2%-32% 49%10%-15%-15%6%-31%4%11% 32%-8%2%-15%12%13%-1%-14%-9% 47% 26%-13%-1%5%-1% 45%3% 59%-9%-7%-9%0%0%66%66%-5% 41%13%-7%-11%-1%-25%-6%6%-15%6%6%-14% 28% 26% 26% 39%-5% 52% 56%-21%-6%-13% 31% 52% 40%109%109%-31%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明如上所述，歐美成熟市場(chǎng)需求總體呈改善趨勢(shì)，且?guī)齑骖A(yù)測(cè)時(shí)點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè)月份空調(diào)實(shí)際出口量YOY2024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-1048%48%51%-13%-10%-10%-9%4%7%24%24%27%7%19%28%29%35%6%17%34%34%37%3%17%31%31%46%5%11%34%37% - --2%15%26%8%16%4%預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè)月份冰箱實(shí)際出口量YOY2024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-1026%28%36%12%14%14%41%14%14%22%26%20%1%8%20%26%22%1%2%10%10%16%-1%1%7%12%18%-2%5%9%12% ----1%2%8%-6%0%-6%預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè)月份洗衣機(jī)實(shí)際出口量YOY2024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-108%5%50%25%25%25%28%-5%-5%-5%10%16%2%2%2%2%9%1%1%1%10%18%3%3%5%5%17%2%5%5%19%--- -1%-2%0%-2%0%5%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明和盈利能力有改善，全年預(yù)期平穩(wěn)，拉美景氣度較高，歐美弱改善。AOS反饋成本端存在壓力；目前歐美企業(yè)尚無(wú)關(guān)注關(guān)稅的情況出現(xiàn)。l庫(kù)存已調(diào)整完畢，幾個(gè)消費(fèi)電器公司年中存貨水平跟去年同期差不多，跟歷史請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明Whirlpool1%12%-8%-2%-7%-2%-10%-11%-4%-6%1%2%-4%1%持平持平Carrier-6%15%8%3%10%7%8%5%4%6%3%0%2%2%~MSD~MSDTrane-5%11%15%9%12%11%19%16%9%11%9%6%14%13%8%~9%~+10%JCI-6%4%9%8%9%8%10%9%13%9%2%8%1%3%~MSD~7%（Q3）LENNOX-5%15%13%6%9%10%17%13%4%3%10%6%0%3%7%7%AOS-3%22%6%3%27%12%-4%-6%-1%-1%7%6%3%~5%3%~5%SharkNinja--0%14%----6%22%13%16%25%31%10%~12%20%~22%iRobot18%9%-24%-25%-4%-30%-37%-21%-45%-7%-33%-14%-6%-30%8.15~8.607.65~8Daikin-2%25%28%10%24%21%38%30%23%13%7%8%14%10%3%~4%3%~4%Panasonic-AP/lifestyle3%10%0%1%7%18%10%5%0%-4%-1%5%4%LG-H&A4%22%10%1%19%19%6%-2%1%-1%0%5%7%11%-增長(zhǎng)Samsung-CEexVD7%19%12%-5%17%17%10%6%-1%-2%-7%-8%-6%-4%--Electrolux3%14%-3%-4%-3%0%1%-8%2%-8%-8%-1%-4%7%--SEB-4%16%-5%5%0%-5%-8%-6%-4%7%9%9%7%6%增長(zhǎng)5%Delonghi14%24%-6%0%6%-11%-10%-7%-19%-1%8%8%7%2%-9%~11%20202021202220232022Q12022Q22022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2WhirlpoolNorthAmerica-2%11%-8%0%-8%-2%-7%-13%-2%-4%4%-8%-6%CarrierUnitedStates-5%15%12%3%18%11%11%11%13%3%7%7%6%-6%4%3%TraneAmericas-3%11%15%9%13%13%19%14%8%9%11%7%15%16%JCINorthAmerica-5%0%8%11%6%10%10%9%10%14%10%10%8%11%8%8%LENNOXUnitedStates-4%15%15%6%10%13%20%16%4%3%10%6%5%9%SharkNinjaNorthAmerica---1%3%------6%8%8%2%8%22%34%AOSNorthAmerica2%19%11%4%32%23%-1%-3%3%-3%9%7%2%9%iRobotUnitedStates23%-18%-30%33%-29%-29%-32%-22%-53%-6%-6%-42%-20%-4%-36%DaikinAmericas-4%32%50%18%37%47%63%57%35%16%21%10%25%18%ElectroluxNorthAmerica13%-1%-8%0%2%-6%4%-12%-12%-10%-15%-13%5%SEBNorthAmerica0%18%-10%-3%-9%-4%-15%-10%-22%-7%15%0%8%4%DelonghiAmericas-2%11%-8%0%24%6%6%-21%-1%-31%-15%-15%14%-6%3%-7%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明WhirlpoolEMEA2%13%-12%-12%-1%-10%-17%-18%-8%-12%-11%-8%-7%-CarrierEurope-7%17%-25%8%-25%-23%-28%-30%14%8%10%15%65%57%TraneEMEA-8%13%15%8%6%11%18%23%15%8%3%8%4%5%JCIEMEA/LA-4%3%6%9%8%4%9%12%12%9%3%9%4%8%SharkNinjaRestofWorld--3%70%----68%80%85%59%31%25%iRobotEMEA8%22%-43%-11%-44%-39%-60%-26%-29%-9%-2%-4%-3%-22%DaikinEurope4%31%27%24%12%25%38%33%14%-7%-2%ElectroluxEurope3%11%-9%-8%-4%-8%-10%-12%-5%-11%-12%-4%-4%0%SEBEMEA2%19%-11%7%-5%-13%-14%-12%-5%13%7%11%8%9%DelonghiEurope17%26%-11%3%-1%-18%-12%-12%-18%6%9%13%13%5%Whirlpool2.50.40.72.02.5Carrier0.12.11.54.63.71.4Trane0.01.12.10.40.81.72.11.23.33.42.8JCI1.10.80.51.40.80.50.3LENNOX0.33.82.83.44.54.63.31.2AOS3.11.03.85.43.10.20.6SharkNinja--6.9----3.44.39.39.42.66.4daikin0.91.31.51.70.30.10.9iRobot2.11.3LG-H&A-opm1.32.97.12.10.4Electrolux2.61.71.60.0Delonghi0.51.63.62.31.70.42.4請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明向前》中我們以2019年空調(diào)價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以及日本加征消費(fèi)稅等情形粗略模擬了量?jī)r(jià)彈銷(xiāo)量中樞也相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，空調(diào)總體仍是擴(kuò)張態(tài)勢(shì)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)正逢更新大周期，政策兌現(xiàn)彈性可期，內(nèi)銷(xiāo)預(yù)期或迎來(lái)反轉(zhuǎn)。分子行業(yè)看：1）龍頭份額提升勢(shì)能強(qiáng)勁，面板價(jià)格壓力或趨減輕要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注國(guó)產(chǎn)龍頭品牌出海節(jié)奏；4）后周期估值均處龍頭，推薦海信視像；此外關(guān)注海信家電等二線(xiàn)白電、石頭科技等標(biāo)的。位數(shù)下降，降幅略小于2024Q1，與地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的更新升級(jí)需此推算下半年主營(yíng)平穩(wěn)，分區(qū)域來(lái)看，公司將北美大家電的產(chǎn)業(yè)品結(jié)構(gòu)和價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)強(qiáng)度超過(guò)年初預(yù)期，公司將其對(duì)盈利能力的影響上調(diào)0.25--4.7%12.3%-8.1%-1.7%-6.9%-2.3%-9.7%-10.8%-3.7%-5.6%1.3%1.6%-4.4%1.2%30%0%-2.3%10.9%-7.9%-0.1%-8.3%-2.3%-7.4%-13.0%-1.6%-4.4%3.8%1.3%-8.1%-5.6%--1.8%12.5%-11.8%-12.2%-0.5%-10.3%-16.7%-18.1%-7.7%-11.8%-11.1%-8.3%-6.9%---22.8%25.6%-3.5%6.8%0.8%-0.5%-10.4%-3.1%-0.4%4.6%9.8%12.5%8.4%14.9% -14.6%-3.4%-6.8%-3.3%-28.8%30.5%-1.2%-15.9%-3.4%-8.0%-8.4%10.1%-1.7%21.5%--------------6.5%11.9%---8.4%7.9%-16.2%3.9%-15.0%-6.7%-20.8%-20.8%-2.9%0.5%14.6%4.4%-2.4%-16.0%---2.7%10.2%-6.4%-7.3%-6.1%6.5%-11.5%-14.1%-10.2%-14.7%-4.9%2.3%-8.6%-12.1% 2.4%17.9%-10.3%-6.6%2.7%-17.0%-8.5%-16.1%-14.8%-11.7%-2.8%2.7%-2.7%-17.6%--0.4%17.8%-3.6%-5.1%-12.6%13.7%-2.1%-10.1%-4.0%-4.3%-9.8%-2.1%-0.9%-38.9%--資料來(lái)源：Whirlpool，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（整體及分區(qū)域收入增長(zhǎng)剔除貨幣因素，2024年開(kāi)始大家請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明19.7%20.1%15.6%16.3%17.3%17.6%14.2%13.1%16.4%17.0%16.2%15.6%14.3%15.7% 9.6%9.5%9.2%10.2%7.6%9.0%9.3%10.9%10.5%9.9%9.6%10.8%10.6%9.9%--9.0%10.8%6.9%6.9%9.4%9.0%5.5%3.5%5.4%7.3%6.5%5.2%4.3%5.3%5.5%8.1%-7.7%2.5%6.4%-7.3%3.0%-32.6%-3.9%1.8%1.7%9.7%-5.8%5.5%--15.7%17.8%11.5%9.7%16.3%14.1%9.8%5.8%10.0%10.3%10.0%8.4%5.6%6.3%-2.0%-1.4%1.6%-2.5%0.2%-3.1%-0.4%0.6%2.0%0.1%3.3%-1.1%---8.4%8.4%6.4%6.0%7.1%7.2%5.3%5.9%5.2%6.5%6.3%6.0%7.8%5.8%-0.5%5.4%4.9%2.7%4.8%6.8%4.7%2.7%3.1%3.7%2.2%1.3%4.6%6.2%------------18.1%13.9%2.50.40.72.02.5--0.90.10.10.0 2.11.81.01.82.6------3.7--3.12.10.22.6--0.72.03.03.11.83.23.7---3.00.01.00.13.0 5.95.11.32.7--------------6.91.4---3.75-3.00-1.50~-1.75-2.00+2.25+1.00+1.75+1.50~+1.75nmnmnmnm--nm-0.50-0.25-0.25---+0.50-0.25Nm-0.25+0.75+0.75+0.75請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明①北美家用暖通空調(diào)業(yè)務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)中個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)，Q1并表，持續(xù)推進(jìn)商用制冷及安防/消防業(yè)務(wù)剝離，聚焦暖通空調(diào)。NetSales-6%15%8%3%10%7%8%5%4%6%3%0%2%2%~MSD~MSDBygeographyUnitedstates-5%15%12%3%18%11%11%13%3%7%6%-6%4%3%--Europe-7%17%-25%8%-25%-23%-28%-30%14%8%10%15%65%57%--AsiaPacific-6%30%25%-12%-21%23%-31%58%67%-1%63%-8% ByproductHVAC-2%17%12%5%18%8%13%9%6%9%4%-1%2%2%--Refrigeration-12%21%0-2%9%-1%-7%-5%-6%-3%6%-2%- Fire&Security-9%7%5%6%4%3%5%6%9%9%6%-1%7%3%--29.3%29.0%26.8%28.9%27.8%27.8%27.1%24.4%26.1%29.3%31.7%28.1%27.6%28.1% 2.4%2.4%2.6%2.8%2.7%2.3%2.6%2.9%2.6%2.5%2.7%3.1%3.6%2.8%--16.2%15.1%12.3%14.9%12.9%11.8%11.4%13.2%13.7%13.1%14.5%18.8%15.9%14.6%--17.7%12.8%22.1%10.4%37.3%15.7%28.0%8.5%10.5%8.2%11.3%11.9%8.1%55.2%15.5%15.5%HVAC26.0%15.3%19.5%15.0%15.8%17.3%35.2%7.3%12.0%17.6%19.0%10.2%9.4%13.8% Refrigeration10.7%11.5%12.4%11.2%11.0%14.1%12.6%12.0%12.0%11.5%11.6%9.9%11.0%11.6%--Fire&Security11.7%12.0%45.7%5.8%148.9%15.1%15.7%14.2%10.7%-16.8%17.8%12.0%17.2%344.5%--11.5%8.3%17.6%6.5%29.8%11.3%24.4%5.4%7.3%3.9%6.6%8.6%4.7%35.4%--資料來(lái)源：Carrier公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（個(gè)別盈利指標(biāo)大幅波動(dòng)主請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明Grossmargin0.12.11.54.63.71.4R&Dratio0.20.00.20.20.10.00.30.30.20.10.21.00.3SG&Aratio1.32.60.81.33.15.72.31.5Operatingmargin4.39.325.21.312.53.447.0HVAC9.94.21.116.40.32.9Refrigeration0.80.92.10.82.21.10.1Fire&Security0.333.7137.44.62.51.4(138.2)2.16.5361.4Netincomemargin9.321.52.115.43.231.5資料來(lái)源：Carrier公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（個(gè)別盈利指標(biāo)大幅波動(dòng)主~10%Flattish0%~5%~(10%)0%~5%~(5%)~(10%)(5%)-(10%)~30%10%~15%0%~5%0%~5%~(15%)~5%(10%)~(5%)~(10%)0~5%Residential&Lightcommercial~10%~(5%)(10%~5%)~(30%)5%-10%(15%)~(10%)~(15%)~(10%)--CommercialHVAC15%~20%10%~15%15%~20%>10%5%~10%~(5%)Flat~5% Americas* ~70%Residential--------0%-5%>100%LightCommercial--------~(35%)~5%--------~+5%EMEA--------~(5%)Residential&LightCommerci--------~(40%)--------AsiaPacific--------0%-5%--------~+10%入在同期高基數(shù)和期內(nèi)需求走弱的共同影響下，明顯降速。期內(nèi)公司訂單強(qiáng)勁，同比請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明NetSales-5%9%9%9%6%8%-9%Booking2%27%5%3%6%7%8%flat-1%-5%8%--BygeographyAmericas-3%11%15%9%13%13%19%14%8%9%11%7%15%16%--EMEA-8%13%15%8%6%11%18%23%15%8%3%8%4%5%--AP-11%7%12%10%14%-12%28%19%8%41%-1%flat16%-3%--BookingAmericas4%29%7%2%6%10%11%flat-4%-8%7%13%20%23%--EMEA-3%27%-5%11%flat-12%-10%2%10%14%12%10%7%10%--AP-6%-14%7%8%14%16%3%-6%13%6%12%2%6%flat--30.5%31.6%31.0%33.1%29.5%31.6%32.8%29.9%31.2%33.7%34.0%33.3%34.6%36.5%18.2%17.3%15.9%16.8%17.9%14.6%15.9%15.7%18.7%14.9%16.3%17.7%19.6%17.0%12.3%14.3%15.1%16.4%11.6%17.0%16.9%14.3%12.5%18.8%17.7%15.5%15.0%19.5%2.0%1.7%1.4%1.3%1.7%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.6%1.3%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.1%7.0%10.2%11.1%11.5%7.8%12.3%12.6%10.9%8.4%12.6%12.9%11.5%10.4%14.3%OPmarginbysegmentAmericas14.7%16.1%16.9%18.0%13.3%19.0%18.7%15.5%13.7%21.2%19.2%16.7%16.3%21.6%EMEA13.5%16.7%14.7%17.0%11.5%16.0%15.6%15.3%16.8%16.4%17.8%17.1%17.1%18.7%AP15.1%17.0%17.5%20.8%13.7%14.4%20.0%20.2%16.8%20.9%22.0%22.6%20.3%24.1%0.01.12.10.40.81.72.11.23.33.42.80.50.80.80.20.42.00.92.12.00.81.21.22.00.91.90.81.32.60.70.13.20.90.50.01.61.90.50.30.30.62.11.8OPmarginbysegmentAmericas(0.4)1.40.81.1(0.6)0.21.32.00.42.20.51.22.60.4EMEA0.33.2(1.9)2.3(3.6)(2.9)(2.7)1.45.30.32.21.80.32.3AP2.41.90.53.2(2.1)(2.9)3.42.33.16.51.92.43.53.2請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明3.69美元。此外，公司就家用和輕商業(yè)務(wù)出售與北美風(fēng)管機(jī)100%股權(quán)和所持江森自控日立60%股權(quán)，目前核算在“全球產(chǎn)品業(yè)務(wù)”中，2023合并收入約45億美元，意向交易對(duì)價(jià)約為67億美元。-6%4%9%8%8%9%8%10%9%13%9%2%-1%3%~MSD~3%-5%0%8%11%5%6%10%9%10%14%10%8%4%8%8%---4%3%6%9%3%8%4%9%12%12%9%3%2%4%8%---9%6%7%7%12%7%-1%12%7%15%16%-6%-21%-23%-19%---9%8%11%6%14%14%9%11%7%12%6%-2%-1%-1%3% ----11%13%15%13%6%8%5%8%6%19%5% ----7%8%8%3%5%7%10%16%5%8%11%------4%8%2%3%-1%9%14%3%-31%-9%-2%--33.2%34.1%33.0%33.5%32.3%32.1%33.3%34.1%34.5%33.5%34.1%32.0%32.7%32.6%34.4%25.4%22.2%23.5%23.1%23.4%23.8%24.0%22.8%25.9%23.6%21.8%21.4%24.8%33.6%15.1%13.2%14.3%13.5%15.0%12.3%13.1%15.1%16.5%13.1%14.2%16.4%16.0%12.8%14.1%18.7%-B&S-NA13.4%13.9%12.0%13.5%11.6%10.6%10.7%14.7%11.3%12.5%14.4%15.4%11.5%13.6%18.0%-B&S-EMEA/LA9.8%10.5%9.3%7.7%10.8%8.2%8.7%9.4%7.7%6.7%8.6%7.8%7.7%8.4%10.3%-B&S-AP13.3%13.1%12.2%12.5%10.1%11.9%12.8%14.0%10.5%11.8%13.9%13.5%9.1%11.0%11.7%-GlobalProducts14.4%16.8%17.0%20.4%14.5%18.0%22.2%21.9%18.4%19.8%22.1%21.0%17.9%17.8%24.5%Netincome2.8%6.9%6.1%6.9%6.5%0.7%5.7%11.3%1.9%2.0%14.7%7.9%6.1%0.6%13.5%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明Grossmargin1.10.80.51.40.80.3SG&Aratio1.31.42.51.82.510.0EBITAmargin0.51.11.50.30.40.50.71.11.32.3-B&S-NA0.70.41.5(0.9)(2.2)(4.0)(0.5)(0.3)1.93.70.70.21.13.5-B&S-EMEA/LA0.70.5(1.2)(1.8)(1.6)(3.2)(1.6)(0.1)(1.6)0.01.71.7-B&S-AP0.40.3(2.7)(0.4)0.8(1.4)0.5(0.0)1.1(0.5)(1.5)(0.8)(2.2)-GlobalProducts0.72.30.33.42.43.61.32.93.91.8(0.1)(0.8)(0.5)(1.9)2.4Netincome4.10.81.40.84.2略超預(yù)期，維持全年收入指引不變，即同比增長(zhǎng)7-4.5%15.4%12.5%5.6%8.9%10.3%17.5%13.4%3.6%3.3%9.8%5.6%-0.2%2.8%~7%~7%3.1%17.5%15.2%0.8%12.5%16.6%17.5%13.4%-0.2%-4.2%7.3%0.9%-0.9%4.9%~6%~5%2.2%16.1%16.8%1.5%12.7%18.2%19.1%16.2%1.5%-3.7%8.0%0.9%-2.1%6.3%--15.6%35.3%-0.8%-8.1%10.5%0.9%-0.9%-11.1%-20.6%-10.6%-2.3%0.9%16.3%-13.1%---16.1%-6.6%8.2%17.5%-5.8%-13.1%19.6%19.4%10.4%24.5%15.1%19.2%20.7%15.0%~10%~14%-16.3%13.8%9.8%15.7%-3.0%-9.4%19.8%19.5%9.7%21.3%13.5%17.6%21.3%16.4%---21.2%-5.8%-14.6%53.5%-38.5%-48.1%20.8%24.5%35.6%104.0%41.4%43.5%7.8%-5.9%--資料來(lái)源：LENNOX公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（2023年請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明28.6%28.3%27.2%31.1%26.5%29.1%26.8%26.1%29.2%32.4%31.4%30.7%32.5%33.6%15.3%14.3%13.3%14.2%15.3%12.4%11.8%14.2%16.0%12.8%13.1%15.4%16.3%11.6%13.2%14.1%13.9%15.9%11.0%16.6%14.9%12.0%13.3%19.8%13.7%16.0%15.9%22.1%HomeComfort18.1%19.5%18.7%18.9%15.8%22.1%18.4%16.9%16.3%21.6%20.2%16.2%16.6%23.3%BuildingClimate13.3%13.8%12.7%22.5%6.1%10.4%12.7%12.0%16.2%25.3%24.0%23.2%21.0%24.3%0.8%0.6%0.8%1.0%0.7%0.6%0.8%1.2%1.4%1.1%0.8%1.0%1.1%0.9%19.8%17.2%19.3%20.0%19.9%18.5%18.7%21.0%21.7%17.6%25.6%16.7%19.4%19.9%9.8%11.1%10.5%11.8%8.2%13.0%11.4%8.6%9.3%15.4%9.5%12.5%11.9%16.9%0.3-0.3-1.13.8-1.1-1.9-1.0-0.22.83.44.54.63.31.2-0.1-1.0-1.00.9-0.3-1.1-0.8-1.50.60.41.31.20.3-1.2-4.10.9-0.22.0-1.2-0.8-0.41.92.33.1-1.34.02.62.3HomeComfort-2.11.3-0.80.3-0.1-0.5-1.8-0.80.5-0.51.8-0.70.31.6BuildingClimate-1.613.8-1.29.9-7.6-7.52.04.27.712.79.19.34.8-1.0-0.5-0.20.20.20.00.10.20.50.70.4-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.20.3-2.62.10.7-0.9-0.10.313.61.7-0.86.8-4.3-2.32.3-0.91.3-0.51.3-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.01.12.4-1.93.92.51.6司維持全年收入指引，即預(yù)計(jì)2024年收入同比請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明1.3%6.6%3%~5%3%~5%3.1%1.8%9.5%---12.7%3.6%0.2%---15.1%-16.7%5.1%5.5%0.2%------6.0%2.0%0%~3%0%~3%38.3%37.0%35.4%38.5%39.3%38.7%22.8%19.8%17.9%18.9%19.6%18.4%11.9%13.8%6.3%14.4%15.1%15.2%17.4%19.3%9.6%21.0%-16.7%20.1%22.0%21.9%23.8%23.4%9.4%24.9%-27.1%25.1%25.9%25.1%-8.8%10.0%8.7%9.7%7.6%10.6%3.10.61.00.31.98.2- 1.91.911.4- 2.00.315.4- 0.9--1.25.2資料來(lái)源：A.O.Smith公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（202/成本策略?xún)?yōu)化，區(qū)域擴(kuò)張帶來(lái)的收入增長(zhǎng)也有幫助。公司將請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明-0.3%14.4%5.6%22.1%13.1%16.5%24.7%31.4%10%~12%20%~22%Cleaning-0.9%-5.8%-5.1%0.6%-10.7%-6.7%1.7%12.6% CookingandBeverage-8.1%33.7%10.6%68.1%30.3%31.5%28.4%10.6%--FoodPreparation7.7%10.7%-8.3%4.1%31.1%11.0%74.0%84.8% NorthAmerica-1.1%3.3%-6.5%7.6%2.5%8.0%22.1%34.5% Europe3.0%70.5%68.3%79.5%85.1%58.8%----RestofWorld2.2%-1.5%-5.5%47.5%-10.5%-43.0%30.7%24.8%--資料來(lái)源：SharkNinja公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所(2024年開(kāi)始“RestofWorld”數(shù)據(jù)包括了原來(lái)的“Europe”)38.6%37.9%44.9%43.5%37.5%36.3%35.8%46.8%41.8%45.5%45.2%49.4%48.1%5.4%5.8%5.9%6.4%6.9%5.7%4.7%6.9%6.4%5.7%5.0%6.5%7.2%16.6%16.7%21.1%15.5%18.8%14.1%18.3%17.8%21.9%19.4%23.9%20.1%24.3%Generalandadminist4.8%6.8%9.1%6.4%7.0%5.0%8.2%7.8%7.6%11.6%9.0%8.2%8.3%11.8%8.6%8.8%15.1%4.6%11.5%4.5%14.3%5.9%8.8%7.3%14.5%8.3%-0.4%-0.7%-1.1%-0.5%-0.8%-0.9%-0.7%-1.0%-0.7%-1.2%-1.2%-1.4%-1.2%20.1%23.1%43.0%22.3%28.5%21.8%24.6%21.8%25.1%75.3%45.4%23.6%24.1%8.9%6.3%3.9%11.0%2.1%8.5%3.9%10.2%1.3%1.7%3.6%10.3%5.4%----6.9----3.44.39.39.42.66.4-0.40.1----0.40.30.8-0.14.4----2.33.15.35.62.32.4Generalandadminist-1.92.3----1.40.56.60.80.40.7 0.1 1.22.80.22.5-----0.0-3.020.0----53.520.81.8 0.14.2請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明17.8%9.4%-24.4%-24.7%-3.7%-30.2%-36.9%-21.4%-45.1%-7.4%-33.1%-14.1%-6.4%-29.7%-8%~-3%-14%~-10%23.4%1.3%-18.4%-30.3%33.5%-29.2%-32.1%-22.4%-53.0%-6.0%-41.7%-20.3%-4.3%-35.6% 12.3%18.2%-29.9%-18.7%-26.4%-31.3%-41.5%-20.5%-36.4%-8.9%-23.4%-8.0%-8.1%-22.4%--7.9%21.9%-42.5%-10.8%-43.5%-38.9%-60.0%-26.5%-28.9%-9.0%-1.9%-4.4%-3.4%-21.6%--20.2%15.2%-5.9%-21.4%24.5%-17.6%-20.0%-2.2%-34.9%9.4%-35.1%-18.2%-15.7%-34.7%--Soloandother -30.4%-52.1% volume-------------28.4%-55.4%--price -- -----2.7%7.2% -2-in-1------------124.0%55.1%--volume------------200.0%72.3%--price-------------25.3%-10.0%--15.5%9.8%-23.8%-22.0%-4.1%-30.3%-36.9%-18.9%-43.6%-1.3%-31.5%-12.1%----10.4%2.4%-24.2%-24.9%-10.9%-33.2%-32.9%-18.0%-53.9%1.3%-36.8%-11.4% 4.7%7.2%0.5%3.8%7.7%4.2%-6.0%-1.0%22.2%-2.6%8.4%-0.8%----41.4%5.7%-29.5%-48.7%0.0%-30.2%-37.2%-42.6%-57.6%-50.0%-48.1%-37.0%----8.4%-1.4%-34.5%-51.2%-6.8%-41.1%-50.6%-31.1%-66.1%-44.4%-48.1%-47.5%----30.5%7.3%7.6%5.1%7.3%18.4%27.1%-16.7%25.0%-10.0%0.0%20.0%----Grossmargin46.9%35.2%29.6%22.0%36.8%31.7%27.5%23.8%22.8%22.6%25.8%18.9%24.1%16.5%30%~32%27%~28%R&Dratio11.0%10.3%14.1%16.2%14.6%16.4%14.9%11.3%26.2%16.0%20.0%8.8%22.6%14.0%--S&Mratio18.6%18.5%24.8%22.6%20.9%29.8%21.7%26.8%27.9%23.5%22.4%19.4%19.8%24.0% G&Aratio7.0%6.3%10.0%12.3%9.1%10.3%11.3%9.4%19.3%13.1%15.2%6.1%-35.8%10.2%--Operatingmargin10.2%-0.1%-20.3%-29.7%-8.0%-25.0%-24.6%-23.7%-50.7%-30.0%-32.0%-17.0%7.9%-36.7%--Otherincome2.9%1.9%-1.8%-3.3%-5.7%-0.9%-3.5%-3.9%-0.7%-1.7%-10.3%-1.5%-2.1%-5.3%--Incometaxrate21.7%-7.4%-9.4%-4.0%24.0%34.3%85.1%2.4%1.5%-7.6%-0.8%-11.6%1.2%-1.0% Netincomemargin10.3%1.9%-24.2%-34.2%-10.4%-17.0%-46.1%-23.5%-50.6%-34.2%-42.5%-20.7%5.7%-42.5% 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明2.11.33.82.10.75.85.82.511.65.16.34.18.88.34.27.00.80.60.23.62.31.43.16.23.510.22.73.9(55.1)3.1(10.1)6.758.73.3(26.1)(59.1)3.62.856.32020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q23.3%14.3%-3.6%-4.3%-3.3%0.4%0.4%-10.4%1.1%-8.8%-7.9%-0.8%-3.7%6.8%3.3%10.6%-8.6%-7.8%-4.3%-7.7%-9.7%-11.8%-4.9%-10.9%-11.5%-4.2%-3.9%-0.4%1.7%8.4%-0.5%-8.4%-5.2%6.4%13.7%-14.1%-5.5%-10.7%-16.8%0.7%0.9%12.7%-0.9%-8.4%-0.3%0.7%2.3%-6.1%4.0%-12.3%-9.6%-14.5%-13.0%4.7%10.0%33.7%4.2%15.2%-6.0%12.9%13.5%-1.6%20.9%5.6%7.6%29.4%14.8%26.6%資料來(lái)源：Electrolux公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（Org請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q219.2%19.1%13.1%12.7%17.2%13.8%12.6%9.5%13.1%15.5%14.2%8.5%12.7%15.5%9.5%9.4%9.6%9.9%9.6%9.5%9.1%10.3%9.7%9.8%9.9%10.4%10.1%10.6%Administrativeexpens4.4%4.0%4.3%5.2%4.9%3.4%3.8%5.0%4.5%4.4%3.8%7.9%5.0%4.1%5.0%5.4%-0.2%-2.2%5.2%1.7%-1.1%-5.5%-0.8%-0.4%1.8%-9.0%-2.3%1.2%0.6%0.4%1.1%1.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.8%1.6%3.4%3.7%-1.0%-3.9%3.2%0.8%-1.7%-5.4%-1.8%-2.0%0.4%-11.5%-4.0%-0.2%7.9%8.1%1.5%-3.5%5.2%1.3%0.7%-1.1%-0.4%-3.2%4.5%-13.5%1.7%1.7%----7.3%10.1%10.8%2.1%3.4%5.4%6.6%-2.7%3.2%1.7%-5.1%-5.2%7.6%-2.3%-9.5%-13.4%-3.8%-1.4%-3.7%-12.5%-12.1%-3.1%3.9%6.7%4.4%5.6%1.8%4.8%6.8%3.4%3.8%4.8%5.6%7.5%6.0%7.9%7.0%9.6%7.7%3.0%7.3%10.1%10.8%2.1%3.4%5.4%6.6%-2.7%--2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22.61.71.60.00.10.30.80.10.10.10.40.70.00.50.8Administrativeexpens0.90.71.11.02.90.52.30.42.91.60.20.50.40.50.70.90.70.70.50.20.20.01.90.32.11.72.40.23.91.12.74.02.50.41.61.24.52.10.85.81.02.82.61.32.04.12.23.1請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q1-2024F2024Q2-2024F9.1% WesternEurope6.1%-3.1%-5.7%28.1%5.7%-3.7%-9.1%-22.1% -22.1%5.1%27.1% -12.1%-0.7% 資料來(lái)源：SEB公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（Change），下降帶動(dòng)。公司維持全年收入指引，即收入同比9%~11%，包括SouthWestEurope17.2%27.0%-8.3%-1.9%3.5%-14.7%-13.7%-8.2%-24.7%-1.7%7.0%9.9%10.1%1.2%--NorthEastEurope16.7%23.7%-14.4%10.7%-6.9%-23.9%-9.5%-16.2%-7.5%19.3%11.8%16.8%17.1%9.8%-- -- 資料來(lái)源：De'Longhi公告，國(guó)聯(lián)證券研究所（收入指引是名義增速，其余為請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明49.2%49.7%47.3%48.9%51.1%45.2%46.7%46.4%50.5%48.8%49.0%48.1%14.6%14.9%11.7%14.2%12.7%8.1%9.8%14.7%12.5%12.1%14.4%16.4%11.1%12.0%11.7%10.7%12.7%8.1%9.8%14.7%8.3%8.4%10.6%13.6%8.5%9.7%5.6%8.1%6.9%3.0%4.1%7.6%6.4%6.4%8.4%10.0%0.51.63.62.31.70.32.52.05.24.61.70.92.41.74.04.61.70.11.22.50.23.44.32.4Daikin2024Q2收入同比增長(zhǎng)14%（剔除匯率增長(zhǎng)3.3%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)2.6%，據(jù)-2.2%24.7%28.1%10.4%21.1%38.4%30.0%23.4%13.1%7.5%7.5%13.6%14.3%3.3%3.3%-1.5%24.4%28.3%11.0%20.9%39.4%30.0%23.7%13.8%8.2%7.6%14.6%15.5%3.4%--8.7%29.4%24.0%0.2%26.8%30.9%18.3%20.7%-4.7%-5.2%3.7%6.8%2.3%2.3% 0.3%5.6%5.6%6.5%-3.0%7.7%11.5%6.8%5.7%5.3%8.8%6.2%7.2%1.9%-3.8%31.5%26.7%1.4%12.3%24.5%38.2%33.2%13.7%1.5%-6.8%-1.7%-0.3%5.0%-7.1%29.6%1.3%6.7%-5.2%26.4%-11.1%-7.4%18.4%-13.1%15.1%15.1%0.4%0.3%--4.1%31.9%50.0%18.1%46.7%63.5%56.5%34.9%16.3%21.3%9.5%24.8%27.9%4.7%--16.0%18.4%41.3%9.8%42.9%71.1%42.9%19.3%11.8%0.8%5.0%20.8%26.4%5.4%-8.0%31.4%23.1%4.8%29.3%35.5%17.1%13.7%-0.3%0.6%5.7%12.7%17.2%-3.6% -6.3%35.5%59.8%38.0%35.8%87.1%34.0%81.0%29.7%40.1%49.8%33.3%23.3%-2.9%-4.8%44.8%13.5%4.9%92.3%8.1%7.4%0.0%16.0%-10.0%44.8%-12.2%3.4%0.0%-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁(yè)的重要聲明Grossmargin34.7