出版行業(yè)專題報告：行穩(wěn)健之舟亮紅利之光

信達(dá)證券CINASECURITIES請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www.ci本期內(nèi)容提要:本期內(nèi)容提要:郵箱：fengcuiting@影響，導(dǎo)致同比大幅下滑。24年初至08.15，在傳媒各細(xì)分板塊的市場表現(xiàn)中，出版行業(yè)區(qū)間漲跌幅表現(xiàn)較好為-9.02%，游戲區(qū)間漲跌幅27.49%。2023年出版行業(yè)的機(jī)構(gòu)持倉占比主要跟隨傳媒行業(yè)整體季郵箱：fengcuiting@國有出版公司由于其所處的教育出版、大眾出版行業(yè)特性，發(fā)展趨勢且每年的資本性質(zhì)支出較少，現(xiàn)金儲備和現(xiàn)金流帶來的利潤回報大多以大幅覆蓋分紅總額。從目前各公司每年的分紅總額來看，相較其自身的長期盈利能力和現(xiàn)金等儲備，分紅總額絕對值仍較小，未來存在分紅率提升的空間，我們認(rèn)為大概率不會對公司業(yè)務(wù)正常經(jīng)營產(chǎn)生較大影響。B座B座風(fēng)險因素：行業(yè)競爭加劇、AI賦能不及預(yù)請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www. 4 9 9 6 7 7 8 8 9 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6000資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心2023年至今市場表現(xiàn)回顧：2023年初-2023.05，隨著生成式AI的Sora概念走高以及市場對高股息、高分紅資產(chǎn)的關(guān)注度提升，出版指數(shù)也跟隨走高。24年初至08.15，各細(xì)分板塊的市場表現(xiàn)中，出版行業(yè)區(qū)間漲跌幅表現(xiàn)較好為-9.02%，游戲區(qū)間漲跌幅為-24.55%，影視院線為-傳媒細(xì)分行業(yè)中的防御性強(qiáng)、抗風(fēng)險能力高、分紅率高特性，在細(xì)分市場表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)。公募機(jī)構(gòu)持倉占比變化：2023年出版行業(yè)的機(jī)構(gòu)持倉占比主要跟隨傳媒行業(yè)整體季度趨勢波動，但在23Q4-請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心 游戲廣告營銷影視院線出版資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www.ci資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心稅影響、投資損益同比減少等，利潤增速大多出現(xiàn)大幅下24Q12023A營業(yè)收入歸母凈利潤24Q12023A營業(yè)收入歸母凈利潤營業(yè)收入歸母凈利潤（億元）（億元）（億元）（億元）24Q12023A營收增速歸母凈利增速營收增速歸母凈利增速歸母凈利潤（億元）2024E2025E2026E(24Q1)2025E代碼公司名稱市值2026ETTM2024E0.4%3.3%136.4529.5241.8%1.418.319.614.813.813.02713.56-26.3%20.99.6601928.SH鳳凰傳媒0.4%3.3%136.4529.5241.8%1.418.319.614.813.813.02713.56-26.3%20.99.6601019.SH601098.SH600373.SH601921.SH601801.SH601811.SH601949.SH601900.SH000719.SZ600757.SH605577.SH600551.SH300788.SZ600229.SH603230.SH600825.SH002181.SZ300654.SZ601999.SH603999.SH603096.SH301052.SZ24.7030.0021.6127.0329.2924.749.4020.8818.9619.226.4516.434.026.655.591.631.1124.7030.0021.6127.0329.2924.749.4020.8818.9619.226.4516.434.026.655.591.631.110.995.402.522.250.93世紀(jì)天鴻出版?zhèn)髅阶x者傳媒新經(jīng)典果麥文化2.112.842.112.842.641.102.932.06-0.051.520.332.621.370.610.380.871.280.02-0.130.07-0.080.090.49-0.0923.7618.5519.6715.099.3615.799.6712.8413.8910.163.445.551.164.083.150.360.080.421.120.981.600.54136.13100.84116.74112.44118.6862.9893.6598.3367.5918.4486.4317.1726.9218.4013.055.595.0724.1212.959.014.7813.4%13.4%12.6%-13.2%0.6%-5.4%7.0%-7.8%-4.9%1.5%-5.0%4.4%-3.2%-5.8%4.4%8.0%-1.8%8.8%16.8%1.2%13.8%10.0%-19.2%-1.1%-18.2%-38.3%-24.2%-13.3%3.3%-115.4%-34.0%-67.5%-32.1%-2.9%-29.2%-9.9%-9.7%-9.8%-62.1%-48.5%-9.9%-81.0%14.3%7.8%-167.2%8.2%9.2%-1.5%-0.9%-3.8%8.6%2.6%3.4%2.1%7.4%2.1%13.0%-4.7%5.4%10.9%3.6%2.3%17.2%-7.6%0.2%-3.9%3.5%41.1%32.6%1.9%6.8%32.2%13.1%48.7%34.4%34.6%39.3%-27.9%61.2%-7.7%21.4%17.5%312.1%-78.3%18.9%48.8%14.3%16.5%31.5%1.71.51.01.41.11.31.71.51.01.41.11.31.21.31.01.11.70.92.11.31.51.60.93.61.21.41.42.8-8.717.4-9.7-7.7-3.51.53.3---0.5--1.8-18.915.918.915.919.6---10.219.011.710.219.0---10.712.010.7------3.91.73.84.22.03.91.73.8---------------2.02.22.0---15.215.89.913.815.215.89.9---14.99.012.614.99.0---11.010.011.0---13.212.313.2---14.931.413.714.931.413.7---------54.547.254.5------14.513.114.5---12.812.813.98.813.110.1-13.0-11.111.17.711.4-12.1--8.0-11.511.311.5-18.5-12.312.323.410.541.011.2-13.5--118.7--942.9-41.871.741.8-27.0--28.3-11.916.011.9-69.8-2602356346454140292826資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心化體制改革中經(jīng)營性文化事業(yè)單位轉(zhuǎn)制為企業(yè)有關(guān)稅收政策的公告》延續(xù)了〔2019〕16號文件新轉(zhuǎn)制企業(yè)制注冊之日起五年內(nèi)享受免稅優(yōu)惠的規(guī)定，但是未單獨強(qiáng)調(diào)原已轉(zhuǎn)制企業(yè)可繼續(xù)免征，已享受完5年免稅優(yōu)惠的轉(zhuǎn)制企業(yè)將不再請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露6利潤總額利潤總額企業(yè)所得稅費(fèi)用實際稅率2023A2023Q12024Q12023A2023Q12024Q12023A2023Q12024Q1代碼公司名稱601928.SH鳳凰傳媒23.285.05601928.SH鳳凰傳媒23.285.054.89-6.330.031.27-27.2%0.6%26.0%601019.SH601098.SH600373.SH601921.SH601801.SH601811.SH601949.SH601900.SH000719.SZ600757.SH605577.SH600551.SH300788.SZ600229.SH603230.SH600825.SH002181.SZ300654.SZ601999.SH603999.SH603096.SH301052.SZ山東出版中南傳媒中文傳媒浙版?zhèn)髅酵钚聜髅叫氯A文軒中國出版南方傳媒中原傳媒長江傳媒龍版?zhèn)髅綍r代出版中信出版城市傳媒內(nèi)蒙新華新華傳媒粵傳媒世紀(jì)天鴻出版?zhèn)髅阶x者傳媒新經(jīng)典果麥文化20.9817.4017.0812.688.4115.639.0513.5212.169.053.004.640.783.513.160.42-0.040.600.740.752.110.612.113.604.381.463.582.140.292.621.103.861.410.860.410.971.420.04-0.090.12-0.060.070.610.162.764.153.721.483.862.460.092.281.193.541.660.850.511.271.360.05-0.090.10-0.030.100.61-0.11-2.74-2.14-2.46-2.45-1.15-0.65-0.98-0.89-1.85-1.11-0.44-0.88-0.42-0.570.000.06-0.120.17-0.25-0.200.490.070.000.050.100.010.090.090.030.090.090.020.000.000.000.010.000.000.000.030.000.000.150.020.671.161.100.360.860.340.150.570.840.940.290.220.130.400.080.030.040.030.060.020.11-0.02-13.1%-13.1%-12.3%-14.4%-19.3%-13.7%-4.2%-10.8%-6.6%-15.2%-12.3%-14.8%-18.9%-53.7%-16.2%0.1%14.5%315.6%27.8%-33.4%-26.2%23.1%11.8%0.0%1.4%2.3%0.6%2.6%4.4%9.1%3.5%7.8%0.5%0.0%0.1%0.1%1.0%0.0%-1.3%-3.7%24.3%-0.2%0.0%25.1%14.8%24.3%27.9%29.6%24.7%22.2%13.7%175.6%25.1%70.5%26.6%17.2%25.6%25.5%31.3%5.8%66.1%-45.3%31.1%-197.5%23.5%18.8%15.8%資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心國企出版公司長期看分紅率有望呈上升趨勢，關(guān)注高分紅類、AI+教育創(chuàng)新類公司。數(shù)公司股息率在3.5%-5%之間，其中較高的為長江傳媒、鳳凰傳媒、山東出版、中文傳媒、浙版?zhèn)髅?、皖新傳媒、時代出版、南方傳媒等。分紅總額分紅率分紅總額分紅率扣非歸母分紅總額202120222023223年^同比代碼公司名稱動態(tài)股息率601928.SH鳳凰傳媒12.7212.7212.7251.8%61.1%43.1%20.7461.3%0.2%4.70%601019.SH山東出版7.308.1411.6947.7%48.4%49.2%15.7474.3%25.8%4.49%601098.SH中南傳媒11.6710.789.8877.0%77.0%53.3%15.5263.7%-13.4%4.20%600373.SH中文傳媒9.2110.1610.5745.1%52.6%53.7%15.5767.9%15.2%5.82%601921.SH浙版?zhèn)髅?.117.788.6754.0%55.0%57.4%11.2477.1%22.1%4.53%601801.SH皖新傳媒3.383.685.9752.9%52.0%63.8%7.5479.2%27.2%4.62%601811.SH新華文軒2.532.697.1630.2%30.0%31.3%16.2444.1%14.1%3.97%601949.SH中國出版2.351.972.9030.1%30.2%30.1%5.6051.8%21.5%2.60%601900.SH南方傳媒2.914.154.8436.0%43.9%37.1%8.9154.3%10.4%4.53%000719.SZ中原傳媒3.383.894.3034.6%37.7%30.9%11.1538.6%0.9%4.07%600757.SH長江傳媒4.493.884.8564.4%53.2%47.8%8.8954.6%1.3%4.81%605577.SH龍版?zhèn)髅?.440.490.3610.0%10.2%10.3%2.8112.8%2.6%0.57%600551.SH時代出版1.401.212.4022.1%35.2%43.6%3.4769.1%33.9%6.51%300788.SZ中信出版0.970.670.6040.0%53.1%50.7%0.6297.0%43.9%1.28%600229.SH城市傳媒1.111.321.7839.9%39.3%43.7%2.2977.6%38.3%4.07%603230.SH內(nèi)蒙新華0.230.531.6010.1%19.8%50.5%2.6061.6%41.8%3.91%資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心（2023^代表分紅總額/扣非歸母凈利潤指標(biāo)，數(shù)據(jù)截至2024.08.16）請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www.ci請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www.c代碼公司名稱2015201620172018201代碼公司名稱201520162017201820192020202120222023601928.SH鳳凰傳媒3.78%3.94%6.32%6.18%6.31%5.68%601019.SH山東出版0.00%0.00%3.71%4.60%5.66%5.69%6.21%5.97%601098.SH中南傳媒3.00%4.32%4.88%5.19%6.61%6.79%6.01%5.41%600373.SH中文傳媒0.34%0.59%2.36%3.84%3.67%5.45%5.50%7.84%5.92%601921.SH浙版?zhèn)髅?-----3.32%4.73%5.10%601801.SH皖新傳媒0.80%0.91%2.62%2.92%3.37%3.28%3.55%4.39%601811.SH新華文軒0.00%2.70%2.23%3.22%2.27%3.41%3.53%3.43%4.25%601949.SH中國出版0.00%0.00%2.28%2.16%2.21%2.16%601900.SH南方傳媒0.00%0.99%2.61%2.70%3.74%3.86%5.66%4.16%000719.SZ中原傳媒0.88%3.18%3.91%4.55%4.39%4.73%4.32%600757.SH長江傳媒0.29%0.60%2.30%3.25%6.62%6.92%5.61%5.37%605577.SH龍版?zhèn)髅?----0.00%0.68%0.34%600551.SH時代出版0.00%3.56%2.20%0.00%2.27%3.63%2.46%4.59%300788.SZ中信出版----0.82%600229.SH城市傳媒0.56%2.98%2.82%2.23%2.24%2.83%3.58%603230.SH內(nèi)蒙新華------0.25%2.90%資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心2111111110011111117111111111911111111190000001113111111111902111111200111111171211111111111111119111111111900000011131021012119111111111911111111190000001113資料來源:iFind，信達(dá)證券研發(fā)中心請閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明及信息披露http://www.c代碼公司名稱分紅總額貨幣資金經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流凈額資本性支出601928.SH鳳凰傳媒12.7212.7212.7238.9163.8830.7433.2125.0726.034.67601019.SH山東出版7.308.1411.6973.1876.6168.7125.5721.4524.225.21601098.SH中南傳媒11.6710.789.88109.65108.58114.7420.2719.305.45600373.SH中文傳媒9.2110.1610.57132.12131.72123.2818.0420.8419.562.21601921.SH浙版?zhèn)髅?.117.788.67100.74105.1896.2219.6922.2113.912.84601801.SH皖新傳媒3.383.685.9776.2091.24106.778.9017.257.902.89601811.SH新華文軒2.532.697.1660.4078.0291.1820.4720.2423.531.80601949.SH中國出版2.351.972.9014.5812.3543.4110.6211.788.570.46601900.SH南方傳媒2.914.154.8419.1632.7131.9412.5724.2515.875.78000719.SZ中原傳媒3.383.894.3041.7147.7852.7015.8515.9921.905.24600757.SH長江傳媒4.493.884.8520.4316.8414.349.9410.6711.860.82605577.SH龍版?zhèn)髅?.440.490.3617.1417.2121.352.873.553.900.68600551.SH時代出版1.401.212.4021.2122.9631.773.346.223.270.51300788.SZ中信出版0.970.670.6018.5917.3816.642.851.462.000.35600229.SH城市傳媒1.111.321.7811.0311.6613.454.453.383.570.19603230.SH內(nèi)蒙新華0.230.531.6021.7114.4915.653.72