高盛-全球采礦業(yè)跟蹤0722

22July2024|5:47AMBRT

Metals&Mining:Chile/PeruMonthlyCopperData(May):StrongProductioninChileonQB2RampUpandEscondidaRecovering

Maycoppepoductonwasup9%y/ynCheanddown1%y/ynPeu(+10%and

14%m/m,espectvey).InChe,hghey/ypoductonwasmanydvenby

stongeoutputfomEsconddaandQuebadaBanca’sampup.Thswaspatyoffsetbyowey/ypoductonatEspeanzaandothemnes.

InPeu,LasBambasandAntapaccaypostedweakey/ypoductongowth,patyoffsetbyhghepoductonatAntamna.

CheandPeuYTDpoductonsat3.1mt(+2%y/y).GSexpectsFY24y/ypoductongowthof7%foCheand2%foPeu.

Peaseseebeowfothsmonth’skeyhghghtsoncoppe,ncudng:1)gobaEV

saesdown1%y/y,butup14%m/mnMay;2)monthyChnadomestcappancesetademandmodeatngnMay;3)GSChnaBascMateateam’smonthysuveytackngodebooksofdownsteamandbascmateaspoduces,ndcatngweaketendnmetademand.

MarkingtomarketourFM.TOmodel.Weaetakngtheoppotuntytomakto

maketcommodtypcesandFXaheadof2Q24eanngs.Weevseou2Q24

EBITDAup8%to$334M,onastonge-than-expectedcoppepce(VsbeApha

ConsensusDataat$305M).Weexpectthequatetobemakedbyeatveystabepoductonandcostssequentay,asKansanshbetteoegadesandbette

bypoductpcesaesomewhatoffsetbyhgheenegycosts.Wheattenton

emansonntaconvesatonwthnewPanamanangovenment,wewoudnote

_

quateyfocuswkeybeonpotentafutheenegyeductonfocopoate

consumesnZamba(anothe20%)andmpactfoFMopeatonsandcosts.Inascenaoofanothe20%eductonfomtheocagd,wewoudexpectan

addtonacostmpactof$0.04/bbutnotpoductonssues.WemantanouBuy.

LatAm

nChile’sMaycopperproductionwasup9%y/yand10%m/m.AccodngtoCochco,theCheanCoppeCommsson,totacoppepoductonwasup9%y/y,to445kt.Thswasmanyexpanedbystongey/ypoductonatEscondda(+22kty/y)andQuebadaBanca’sampup(17ktvs.nopoductonnsthesamepeodastyea),patyoffsetbyowey/ypoductonatEspeanza(-4kty/y)and

MarcoFard

+55()337-4580|marcioarid@gscom

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMSA

GabreSmoes

+55()3372-0249|

gabrielsimoes@gscom

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMSA

HenrqueMarques

+55()337-0778|

henriquemarques@gscom

GoldmanSachsdoBrasilCTVMSA

GodmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusnesswthcompanescoveedntseseachepots.Asaesut,

nvestosshoudbeawaethatthe?mmayhaveacon?ctofnteestthatcoudaffecttheobjectvtyofths

epot.Investosshoudconsdethsepotasonyasngefactonmakngthenvestmentdecson.FoRegACcet?catonandothempotantdscosues,seetheDscosueAppendx,ogoto

/eseach/hedge.htm.Anaystsempoyedbynon-USaf?atesaenotegsteed/qua?edaseseachanaystswthFINRAntheU.S.

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

othemnes(-4kty/y).

Exhibit1:ChileCopperProductionbyMine

CHILE-copperproductionbymine(kt)

May-24

May-23

Apr-24

YoY

MoM

YoY

MoM

2024

2023

YoY

YoY

kt

kt

%

%

YTD

YTD

kt

%YTD

Escondida

106

84

98

22

8

26%

8%

501

447

53

12%

Chuqui,RTyMH

56

54

44

2

12

4%

26%

235

262

(28)

(10%)

ElTeniente

23

24

18

(1)

5

(4%)

28%

126

146

(20)

(13%)

Collahuasi

46

43

42

3

4

7%

9%

236

215

21

10%

AngloAmericanSur

21

24

23

(2)

(2)

(10%)

(7%)

106

110

(4)

(3%)

LosPelambres

27

27

28

0

(1)

1%

(2%)

135

107

27

25%

Andina

16

16

15

0

2

3%

12%

80

66

14

21%

Esperanza

7

12

7

(4)

1

(37%)

7%

37

63

(26)

(41%)

Spence

20

17

22

3

(1)

18%

(6%)

105

99

6

6%

QuebradaBlanca

17

0

15

17

3

5667%

18%

76

3

73

2600%

Other

104

108

95

(4)

9

(3%)

10%

503

557

(54)

(10%)

Total

445

408

406

37

39

9%

10%

2,138

2,074

64

3%

SourceCochco

Exhibit2:LTMChileCopperProduction(kt)

May-16

5,900

5,800

5,700

5,600

5,500

5,400

5,300

5,200

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

May-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

May-22

Sep-22

Jan-23

May-23

Sep-23

Jan-24

May-24

SourceCochco

Exhibit3:MonthlyChileCopperProduction(kt)

_

Chilecopperproduction('000t)

Nov-17

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22

Feb-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

40%30%20%10%0%

(10%)(20%)(30%)

YoYchange(%)

CopperProduction('000t)YoYchange(%)

SourceCochco

nPeru’sMaycopperproductiondown1%y/y,butup14%m/m.Peu’sMnstyofMnesandEnegy(MINEM)epotedthatmnngpoductonnMaywasdown1%y/yfocoppe,to232kt.ThswasmanyexpanedbyweakepoductonatLas

Bambas(-7kty/y)andAntapaccay(-7kty/y),patyoffsetbyhghepoductonatAntamna(+12kty/y).Peusthesecondagestcoppepoducenthewod.

22Juy20242

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

Exhibit4:PeruCopperProductionbyMine

PERU-copperproductionbymine(kt)

May-24

May-23

Apr-24

YoY

MoM

YoY

MoM

2024

2023

YoY

YoY

kt

kt

%

%

YTD

YTD

kt

%YTD

CerroVerde

38

40

38

(2)

0

(6%)

1%

183

195

(12)

(6%)

LasBambas

23

30

23

(7)

0

(23%)

1%

102

113

(11)

(10%)

Antamina

48

36

29

12

19

34%

65%

183

168

15

3%

SouthernCopperCorporation

35

32

34

4

1

11%

3%

174

149

25

17%

Antapaccay

11

18

7

(7)

3

(40%)

46%

61

68

(7)

(11%)

Chinalco

17

16

16

1

1

6%

9%

73

84

(11)

(13%)

Hudbay

6

4

7

2

(1)

47%

(9%)

38

31

7

23%

MinaJusta

11

13

7

(3)

4

(21%)

56%

47

64

(17)

(26%)

Quellaveco

26

27

26

(1)

1

(4%)

3%

124

110

14

13%

Other

17

19

18

(2)

(1)

(10%)

(7%)

93

96

(3)

(3%)

Total

232

235

204

(3)

28

(1%)

14%

1,077

1,076

0

0%

SourceMNEM

Exhibit5:LTMPeruCopperProduction(kt)

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300

2,200

2,100

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22

Feb-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

SourceMNEM

Exhibit6:MonthlyPeruCopperProduction(kt)

Perucopperproduction('000t)

300

250

_

200

150

100

50

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

0

60%

YoYchange

40%

20%

(%)

0%

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Feb-21

May-21

Aug-21

Nov-21

Feb-22

May-22

Aug-22

Nov-22

Feb-23

May-23

Aug-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

May-24

(20%)(40%)(60%)

CopperProduction('000t)YoYchange(%)

SourceMNEM

Global

nGlobalEVsalesup13%m/mand26%y/yinMay.AccodngtoMaknes,gobaeectcvehcesaeseached1,164,000untsnMay,up26%y/y.EVsepesented23%oftotavehcesaesnthemonth,up2ppvs.Apand4ppvs.thesame

peodastyea.EVdemandcuentyepesents3%oftotacoppedemand,butt’soneofthekeygowthdves.

22Juy20243

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

Exhibit7:Globalelectricvehiclesales(mnunits)andEVpenetration(%)

Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

Aug-21

Sep-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

218161.412 108060.4020

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

EV(BEV/PHV/FCV)HV(excludingMHV)EVshare(%)

BEVbatteryeectrcvehces/PHVpugnhybrdvehces/FCVfuecevehces/MHVmdhybrdvehces

SourceMarknes

nChinadomesticappliancesretaildemandgrowthmoderatedinMay(byGS

ChinaConsumerteam).1)domestcappancesetasaesgowthwasaheadofexpectaton(13%yoypeNBS)andcamenabove2019evesbutkeyduetothe

618tmngdffeence(eaestatfomMay20onTma/Taobao);2)

owe-than-expectedACdomestcex-factoyshpmentgowth(-1%yoynMay)anddownwadevsonofpevousdomestcACpoductonpanfoJune-Juy.AppanceexpotssequentaympovednMay,whchcontnuousybeatIOL’satestvesonofexpotpoductonpan,pmaydvenbydeveopngmaketssuchasASEAN

countespatyduetohghtempeatues.Enddemandndcatosaekeyto

mpovenEuopedvenby1)consumesentmentstabzaton,and2)ECBate

cutsnJun,wheecentUSenddemandttedtowadsthenegatvesde.Cckheefothefuepot.

_

Exhibit8:ChinawhitegoodsexportsgrowthsequentiallyacceleratedinApr,withUSconsumersentimentfurthermoderatedandEU

consumersentimentstabilized

SourceOL,UnverstyofMchgan

22Juy20244

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

Exhibit9:Ex-factoryshipmentsequentiallymoderatedwhileretailsalesimprovedmominMay

Appancesdatadashboard

SourceAVC,OL,NBS,DatacompedbyGodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearch

nChinaBasicMaterialsMonitor:July2024:Weakertrendinmetaldemand(by

GSChinaBasicMaterialsteam).Poducefeedbackasofmd-Juysuggestsa

softenedodebooktend,sttngattheweakeendofthehstocaange,and

smato2023.Infastuctueactvtywasstabeandsuppotve.Metademandwasmostyweakesequentay,dvenbyadeepecoectonnhousngcompeton,

seasonaweaknessnautoandappances,anddeceeatonfomthe“theenewthngs”.Desptetheetunofseectedstkedbuyes,cuentmetapcesemandestuctvetoenddemand,basedonthefeedback.Ousuveysuggests?nshedgoodsnventoypckedupwth30%ofmanufactungpoducesseengexcess

stock,vesus20%nJune.Ouhgh-fequencytackessuggestcuentdemands10-25%oweyoyfocementandongstee,7-12%owefometas,andstabefo?atstee.Magns/pcngfoaumnum,stee,coa,andthumsoftenedwhe

coppewasstabe,andcementsghtympoved.Cckheefothefuepot.

_

Exhibit10:Channelchecks–basemetalsfabricationsorderbooktrend

Exhibit11:Channelchecks–netinventorylevelsandchanges

SourceCompanydata,GodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearchSourceGodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearch(propretarysurvey

22Juy20245

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

Estimatechanges

WeupdateouestmatesfoFstQuantumaheadof2Q24esuts,makngtomaketcommodtypcesandFX.

WeevseouEBITDAestmatesfo2024/25/26by2%/0%/0%,mostyonthebackofstongecoppeandnckepces.WemantanouBuy-atngonthenameandkeepou12mpcetagetatC$25.0/shae.

Exhibit12:FirstQuantumestimatechanges

ESTIMATECHANGES202420252026PTRating

%Chg

%Chg

0%0%0%

%Chg

%Chg

0%0%0%

Old

Old

Old

4,337

1,254

(76)

Old

5,760

2,713

,009

Old

6,88

3,547

,475

New

5,776

2,707

,005

New

New

New

New

6,839

3,544

,474

FirstQuantum

US$mn

US$mn

US$mn

4,38

1,283

(60)

NeRevenue

EBITDA

Nencome

Buy

Buy

0.0%

2500

25.00

1%2%21%

SourceGodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearch

ValuationandKeyRisks

WeaeBuy-atedonFstQuantumwtha12-monthtagetpceofC$25.0/shae

(unchanged)basedonouEV/EBITDAmutpe-basedvauaton.Oumutpe-based

vauatonconsstsofanequa-weghtedbendedmutpeof6.5xfo2025Eand2026EEV/EBITDA(nnewthpeegoup).

Downsiderisks:Downsdeskstooupcetagetandnvestmentvewncude1)

Zambacuentyepesents100%ofthecompany’sEBITDAandassetconcentatonsnoweevated(poductonssuesthee—e.g.,enegyavaabty,accdents—coud

_

sgn?cantyeducethecompany’sabtytohonocashobgatons;2)aongethanexpectedesoutonatCobePanama,whchwoudmtFQM’sabtytodeeveage;and3)owethanexpectedcoppepcesthatcoudconsequentyeducenvesto

nteestnownngcoppeassets.

22Juy20246

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

WeMarcoFardGabreSmoesandHenrqueMarquesherebycertfythataofthevewsexpressednthsreportaccurateyre?ectourpersona

vewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompanesandtsorthersecurtesWeasocertfythatnopartofourcompensatonwassorwbedrectyorndrectyreatedtothespec?crecommendatonsorvewsexpressednthsreport

UnessotherwsestatedthendvduasstedonthecoverpageofthsreportareanaystsnGodmanSachs’GobanvestmentResearchdvson

GSFactorPro?le

TheGodmanSachsFactorPro?eprovdesnvestmentcontextforastockbycomparngkeyattrbutestothemarket(eourcoverageunverse)andtssectorpeersThefourkeyattrbutesdepctedareGrowthFnancaReturnsMutpe(egvauaton)andntegrated(acomposteofGrowthFnancaReturnsandMutpe)GrowthFnancaReturnsandMutpearecacuatedbyusngnormazedranksforspec?cmetrcsforeachstockThe

normazedranksforthemetrcsarethenaveragedandconvertedntopercentesforthereevantattrbuteTheprecsecacuatonofeachmetrcmayvarydependngonthe?scayearndustryandregonbutthestandardapproachsasfoows

Growthsbasedonastock’sforwardookngsaesgrowthEBTDAgrowthandEPSgrowth(for?nancastocksonyEPSandsaesgrowth)wthahgherpercentendcatngahghergrowthcompanyFinancialReturnssbasedonastock’sforwardookngROEROCEandCROC(for?nanca

stocksonyROE)wthahgherpercentendcatngacompanywthhgher?nancareturnsMultiplesbasedonastock’sforwardookngP/EP/Bprce/dvdend(P/D)EV/EBTDAEV/FCFandEV/DebtAdjustedCashFow(DACF)(for?nancastocksonyP/EP/BandP/D)wthahgherpercentendcatngastocktradngatahghermutpeTheIntegratedpercentescacuatedastheaverageoftheGrowthpercenteFnancaReturns

percenteand(100%Mutpepercente)

FnancaReturnsandMutpeusetheGodmanSachsanaystforecastsatthe?scayearendateastthreequartersnthefutureGrowthusesnputsforthe?scayearateastsevenquartersnthefuturecomparedwththeyearateastthreequartersnthefuture(onapersharebassforametrcs)

ForamoredetaeddescrptonofhowwecacuatetheGSFactorPro?epeasecontactyourGSrepresentatve

M&ARank

AcrossourgobacoverageweexamnestocksusnganM&Aframeworkconsderngbothquatatvefactorsandquanttatvefactors(whchmayvaryacrosssectorsandregons)toncorporatethepotentathatcertancompanescoudbeacquredWethenassgnaM&Arankasameansofscorngcompanesunderourratedcoveragefrom1to3wth1representnghgh(30%50%)probabtyofthecompanybecomnganacqustontarget2

representngmedum(15%30%)probabtyand3representngow(0%15%)probabtyForcompanesranked1or2nnewthourstandarddepartmentagudeneswencorporateanM&AcomponentntoourtargetprceM&Arankof3sconsderedmmateraandthereforedoesnotfactorntoourprcetargetandmayormaynotbedscussednresearch

Quantum

QuantumsGodmanSachs’propretarydatabaseprovdngaccesstodetaed?nancastatementhstoresforecastsandratostcanbeusedforndepthanayssofasngecompanyortomakecomparsonsbetweencompanesndfferentsectorsandmarkets

Disclosures

Therating(s)forFirstQuantumMineralsis/arerelativetotheothercompaniesinits/theircoverageuniverse:CSNCSNMneracaoCopecDexcoEmpresasCMPCSAFrstQuantumMnerasGerdauGrupoMexcoKabnSQMSouthernCopperSuzanoTernumUsmnasVae

Company-speci?cregulatorydisclosures

_

ThefoowngdscosuresreatetoreatonshpsbetweenTheGodmanSachsGroupnc(wthtsaf?ates“GodmanSachs”)andcompanescoveredbyGodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearchandreferredtonthsresearch

GodmanSachshasrecevedcompensatonfornvestmentbankngservcesnthepast12monthsFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

GodmanSachsexpectstoreceveorntendstoseekcompensatonfornvestmentbankngservcesnthenext3monthsFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

GodmanSachshadannvestmentbankngservcescentreatonshpdurngthepast12monthswthFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

GodmanSachshadanonnvestmentbankngsecurtesreatedservcescentreatonshpdurngthepast12monthswthFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

GodmanSachshadanonsecurtesservcescentreatonshpdurngthepast12monthswthFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

GodmanSachshasmanagedorcomanagedapubcorRue144Aofferngnthepast12monthsFrstQuantumMneras(C$1656)

Distributionofratings/investmentbankingrelationships

GodmanSachsnvestmentResearchgobaEqutycoverageunverse

RatingDistributionInvestmentBankingRelationships

ByHodSeByHodSe

Goba48%35%7%64%57%4%

AsofJuy12024GodmanSachsGobanvestmentResearchhadnvestmentratngson2925equtysecurtesGodmanSachsassgnsstocksasBuysandSesonvarousregonanvestmentsts;stocksnotsoassgnedaredeemedNeutraSuchassgnmentsequatetoBuyHodandSeforthepurposesoftheabovedscosurerequredbytheFNRARuesSee‘RatngsCoverageunverseandreatedde?ntons’beowThenvestment

BankngReatonshpschartre?ectsthepercentageofsubjectcompaneswthneachratngcategoryforwhomGodmanSachshasprovdednvestmentbankngservceswthntheprevoustwevemonths

22Juy20247

GoldmanSachsMetas&Mnng

Pricetargetandratinghistorychart(s)

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompanyspec?creguatorydscosuresaboveforanyofthefoowngdscosuresrequredastocompanesreferredtonthsreportmanagerorcomanagernapendngtransacton;1%orotherownershp;compensatonforcertanservces;typesofcentreatonshps;managed/comanagedpubcofferngsnprorperods;drectorshps;forequtysecurtesmarketmakngand/orspecastroeGodmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

prncpandebtsecurtes(ornreateddervatves)ofssuersdscussednthsreport

ThefoowngareaddtonarequreddscosuresOwnershipandmaterialcon?ictsofinterest:GodmanSachspocyprohbtstsanaystsprofessonasreportngtoanaystsandmembersoftherhousehodsfromownngsecurtesofanycompanyntheanayst’sareaofcoverage

Analystcompensation:Anaystsarepadnpartbasedonthepro?tabtyofGodmanSachswhchncudesnvestmentbankngrevenuesAnalystasof?cerordirector:GodmanSachspocygenerayprohbtstsanaystspersonsreportngtoanaystsormembersoftherhousehodsfrom

servngasanof?cerdrectororadvsorofanycompanyntheanayst’sareaofcoverageNon-U.S.Analysts:NonUSanaystsmaynotbeassocatedpersonsofGodmanSachs&CoCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFNRARue2241orFNRARue2242restrctonsoncommuncatonswthsubjectcompanypubcappearancesandtradngsecurteshedbytheanaysts

Distributionofratings:SeethedstrbutonofratngsdscosureabovePricechart:SeetheprcechartwthchangesofratngsandprcetargetsnprorperodsaboveorfeectroncformatorfwthrespecttomutpecompaneswhcharethesubjectofthsreportontheGodmanSachs

websteathttps//wwwgscom/research/hedgehtm

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

ThefoowngdscosuresarethoserequredbythejursdctonndcatedexcepttotheextentareadymadeabovepursuanttoUntedStatesawsandreguatonsAustralia:GodmanSachsAustraaPtytdandtsaf?atesarenotauthorseddeposttakngnsttutons(asthattermsde?nednthe

BankngAct1959(Cth))nAustraaanddonotprovdebankngservcesnorcarryonabankngbusnessnAustraaThsresearchandanyaccesstotsntendedonyfor“whoesaecents”wthnthemeanngoftheAustraanCorporatonsActunessotherwseagreedbyGodmanSachsn

_

producngresearchreportsmembersofGobanvestmentResearchofGodmanSachsAustraamayattendstevstsandothermeetngshostedbythecompanesandotherentteswhcharethesubjectoftsresearchreportsnsomenstancesthecostsofsuchstevstsormeetngsmaybemetnpartornwhoebythessuersconcernedfGodmanSachsAustraaconsderstsapproprateandreasonabenthespec?ccrcumstancesreatngtothestevstormeetngTotheextentthatthecontentsofthsdocumentcontansany?nancaproductadvcetsgeneraadvceonyandhas

beenpreparedbyGodmanSachswthouttakngntoaccountacent’sobjectves?nancastuatonorneedsAcentshoudbeforeactngonany

suchadvceconsdertheappropratenessoftheadvcehavngregardtothecent’sownobjectves?nancastuatonandneedsAcopyofcertan

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