新冠大流行和技術(shù)趨勢

Contents

Summary2

01Introduction3

02TheCOVID-19app:howbigtechoutwittedtheUKgovernment6

03IsCOVID-19changingthecybercrimelandscape?18

04TheinfodemicandCOVID-19disinformation28

05Conclusion41

Abouttheauthors43

Acknowledgments44

Summary

—ThecontextoftheCOVID-19pandemichasemphasizedthat,morethanever,

governmentsandbusinesseshavetoreinventthemselvesthroughthefuller

integrationofdigitaltechnologyinallaspectsoftheirwork,andthattheymust

pursuelong-termdigitaltransformationinordertocompeteandoperateboth

nationallyandinternationally.Otherwise,theyriskfallingbehind,unable

tofindtheirplaceinanalteredgloballandscape.

—Theissuesencounteredduringthedevelopmentoftrack-and-traceappsaspart

ofthefightagainstCOVID_19havehighlightedsignificantdifferencesinlevels

ofaccountabilityandtransparencybetweenthepublicandprivatesectors.This

hasunderlinedtheareasoftensionbetweencorporatepowerandtheauthority

ofdemocraticallyelectedgovernments,andthecapacityoftechcompanies

notjusttodeploy'soft'powerintheformoflobbying,butalsotoblockaccess

toessentia]technologies.

—ThefragmentedresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemichasbroughtrenewed

focusonthelackofinternationallyagreedtechnicalstandardsthatareboth

privacyrespectingandsecurebydesign.Suchstandardscouldpotentiallyoffer

interoperabilityifindividualstraveloverseas,whileatthesametimeguarding

againstoverreachbysomegovernments.

—Itremainstobeseenwhetherthemechanismsandnetworksthathavebeen

establishedinresponsetotheriseincybercrimeduringthepandemicwill

beleveragedforthelongtermtosustainprogressoncybercrimecooperation.

Thesecouldprovetobeenormouslyhelpfulinaddressingthechallengesthat

havelongimpededeffectivecooperationoncybercrimebetweenthepublic

andprivatesectorsandcriminaljusticeactorswithinandacrossborders.

-Ascertaincountriesarenowbeingaccusedofviolatingagreednormsduring

thepandemic,andwiththeincreasedblurringoftheboundarybetweenstate

andnon-statecyberactivity,thegulfbetweenmajorcyberpowerswilllikely

onlycontinuetogrow.Thiscouldultimatelyhinderprogressintryingtobuild

someconsensusacrosstheinternationalcommunityontheissueoffuture

cybernorms；and,further,couldnegativelyimpactpracticalcooperation

acrossbordersoncybercrimeandothercyberrelatedissues.

—The<infbdemic,thathasaccompaniedCOVID_19hasmadeitclearthatdespite

socialmediacompanies,effortstodate,problemspersistintacklingcyber

influenceoperationsandareunlikelytogoawayunlesstheplatformsradically

changetheirbusinessmodel-amovethatwillhurttheirbottomlineandthus

onethattheywillhaveeveryincentivetoavoid.

01

Introduction

Technologyhasbeenattheforefrontofcountries)

responsetoCOVID-19,buttheaccelerateddigital

transformationsince2020hashighlightedsome

criticalriskstoindividualsandsocieties.

TheCOVID-19pandemic-theworstpublichealthcrisisinageneration-hasbeen

JoyceHakmehdubbedthe'greataccelerator5ofdigitaltransformation.1Forcountriesaround

theworld,technologyhasbeenattheforefrontoftheirresponsetothecrisis.

Governmentshaveemployeddigitaltechnologytoprovideahealthemergency

responsetotheirconstituents,andbusinesseshaveseenanunprecedentedrate

ofdigitaladoptionacrosstheirsupplychains.Fromusingartificialintelligence(AI)

anddatamodellingtomapthespreadofinfection,tohelpingtackleandcontain

itthroughcontact-tracingappsanddataanalytics,toenablingtheremotedelivery

ofcriticalservicesandvirtualworkingenvironments,digitalinnovationsand

solutionshavefocusedattentiononthepotentialoftechnologyaswellasonthe

importanceofthedigitalinfrastructureanditsresilience.Thereisanincreased

recognitionthat,inapost-COVIDworld,businessesandgovernmentshaveto

reinventthemselvesthroughthefurtherincorporationofdigitaltechnologyin

theirwaysofworking,andthattheymustpursuelong-termdigitaltransformation

inordertocompeteandoperatebothnationallyandinternationally.Otherwisethey

riskfallingbehind,unabletofindtheirplaceinanalteredgloballandscape.Atthe

sametime,thissharptake-upofdigitaltechnologyhasexposedthewideningdigital

dividenotonlybetweenbusinessesthemselves,butalsobetweennations.According

totheUN,aroundhalfoftheworld'spopulationisoffline.2Forthosepeoplewho

cannot,forexample,accessessentialhealthcareinformation,thedigitaldividehas

becomeamatteroflifeanddeath.3

1Armano,D.(2020),'COVID-19WillBeRememberedAsThe'GreatAccelerator,OfDigitalrrransformation\Forbes,

9September2020,https-///sites/davidarmano/2020/09/09/covid-19-will-be*remembered-as'

the-great-acceleratorof-digitabtransformation/?sh=4f50677c3cb2.

2UnitedNations(2019),4NearlyHalfofWorld'sPopulationExcludedfrom"BenefitsofDigitalization,,Speaker

StressesasSecondCommitteeDebatesInformationTechnology7fbrDevelopment；PressRelease,18October2019,

https:〃www.un.org/press/en/2019/gaef3523.doc.htm.

3UnitedNations(2020),digitalDivide'aMatterofLifeandDeath'amidCOVID-19Crisis,Secretary-General

WarnsVirtualMeeting,StressingUniversalConnectivityKeyforHealth,Development5,PressRelease,11June2020,

https-//www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20118.doc.htm.

TheCOVID-19pandemicandtrendsintechnology

Transformationsingovernanceandsociety

AsourlivescontinuetobetransformedbytheexperienceoftheCOVID-19

pandemicandbytheaccelerateddigitaladoptionassociatedwithit,itisall

themoreurgentthatquestionsconcerningtheimpactofthistransformationare

nowaddressed.Whatisthepricethatwearepayingfbrinnovationanddigital

take-up,andwhatissuesshouldwebeconsidering?Howcangovernments

andbusinessesacceleratedigitaltransformationwhilemitigatingtherisks

thatcouldemanatefromit?

Ithasbecomeevidentthatthepandemichasbroughtnewopportunitiesfbr

cybercriminalsandfbrperpetratorsofdisinformationandTakenews'.Inaddition,

seriousconcernshavebeenraisedabouttheroleofsurveillanceincontaining

outbreaks^thesecuritizationofthehealthcaredebate；andthecriticalchallenges

ofdevisingnewtechnologiessuchascontact-tracingappsthatareeffectivein

notifyingusersofpotentialexposuretoinfectionwhilealsoprotectingindividuals,

privacy.Hence,thepandemichasalsogivenrisetoacrisisoftechnology

andcybersecurity,andisfuellingwhatFreedomHousehastermeda'crisis

fordemocracy'."

Thispaperlooksatsomeofthetrendsthathaveemergedfromthisprocessof

rapidandunplanned-fordigitaladoption.InChapter2,EmilyTaylorfocusesonthe

relationshipbetweengovernmentsandbigtech,usingtheUK'strack-and-traceapp

asacasestudy.Itexploresthepowerimbalancesbetweenelectedgovernmentsand

privatesectorcorporations,andtheimplicationofthosedynamicsindeveloping

anddeployingtechnologicalsolutions-inthiscase,forpublichealthpurposes-

thatrespectindividualrights,arerobustfromacybersecurityperspectiveand

canachieveepidemiologicalgoals.

InChapter3,AllisonPetersexaminestheimpactthatCOVID_19hashadonthe

cybercrimelandscape,exploringthepotentialforcooperationagainstcybercrime

atnationalandinternationallevels,andconsideringwhethertheawareness

thatthepandemichasarguablycreatedastothemagnitudeoftheproblemof

cybercrimewillactasawake-upcall,leadingtosustainablepolicychanges

forthelongterm.

InChapter4,SophiaIgnatidoudiscusseswhathasbeendubbedan<infodemic,

inthecontextoftheCOVID_19crisis,exploringhowdisinformationhasbeen

<weaponized,andhowhigh-profilepoliticalfigures,includinginliberaldemocracies,

haveusedthepandemictomanipulateandcontroltheinformationspace.

Sheemphasizestheimportanceofa<whole-of-society,approachtocurbingthis

problem,andsuggestsanumberofmeasuresthatcanbeinitiatedbydifferent

stakeholdersinordertohelpaddresswhatisanescalatingsituation.

Eachofthesethreechapterssetsitsareaoffbcusinthecontextofdevelopments

priortothepandemic,exploresthespecificimpactoftheCOVID_19crisis,and

identifiessomepotentialfutureimplications.Lookingatthesedifferentareas

4Repucci,S.andSlipowitz,A.(2020),'DemocracyunderLockdown：TheImpactofCOVID19onthe

GlobalStrugglefbrFreedom',October2020,/report/special-report/2020/

democracy-underlockdown.

TheCOVID-19pandemicandtrendsintechnology

Transformationsingovernanceandsociety

inconjunction,Chapter5concludesbystressingtheneedtorestoreandbuild

greaterpublictrustincriticalmeasuresandpolicyapproaches,andtoincrease

cooperationnationallyandinternationally.

ThepaperhasbeenproducedaspartofawiderChathamHouseproject,'Trends

intechnology-whatdoesthefuturehold?'.Theprojectaimstohelpbridgethe

current'siloed'approachesintechpolicymakingbyhighlightingcommonthreads

andpatternsacrossanumberofpolicyareas,andidentifyingthebestwaysto

addressthoseinawaythatallowsdigitaltechnologyandcyberspacetocontinue

toserveasanengineforsocialandeconomicgrowthforallcountriesandpeople

aroundtheworld.

02

TheCOVID-19

app:howbigtech

outwittedthe

UKgovernment

Thedevelopmentofanyhealthappraisesimportant

considerationsofhumanrights,technicalandpractical

challenges,andcybersecurityissues,and-ashasbeen

evidentduringthepandemic-underscoresthetensions

betweengovernmentsandtechgiants.

ThischapterincorporatesacasestudyoftheUK'sCOVID-19track-and-trace

EmilyTaylorapp,andwhatitshistoryrevealsaboutthepowerdynamicsbetweenbigtechand

electedgovernments.Theapp'sstoryreflectstrendsinboththetechmarketandin

publichealthintheUK,includingtheconsolidationofmobileoperatingsystem

andappstoremarkets,thecentralizationoftheUK'spublichealthprovisionand

theimpactofsuccessivebudgetcutsinthedecadesince2010,aswellasthepitfalls

ofwhathasbeentermed<tech-solutionism，5inthefaceofcomplexpublichealth

andpolicyproblems.

5AdaLovelaceInstitute(2020),ExitthroughtheAppStore?,RapidEvidenceReview,20April2020,

https：///wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ada-Lovelace-lnstitute-Rapid-Evidence-

ReviewExit-through-the-App-Store-April-2020-2.pdf.

TheCOVID-19pandemicandtrendsintechnology

Transformationsingovernanceandsociety

Whateverthemeritsofthecompetingdesignarchitecturesofthefirstversion

oftheUK'scontact-tracingappandtheGoogle-Applemodelthatwastoreplace

it,thefailureoftheUK'sfirstappwasduetotheimpositionofapolicydecision

onademocraticallyelectedgovernmentbytwounelected,unaccountabletech

companies,raisingimportantquestionsaboutthelegitimacyoftheresulting

policy.Inessence,AppleandGooglewithheldaccesstoessentialtechnologies

untiltheUKagreedtoalignitsdatastoragemodelwiththatadvocatedbythe

techcompanies.

Thispaperalsoconsiderstheresourcesdedicatedtotheappinthecontext

oftheUKswiderpublichealthresponse.Wasinvestmentof￡11.8m6*inthefirst

app'sdevelopmentworthwhile,orwaspolicy"ledbytechnology,ratherthanthe

otherwayaround?

BigtechandpublichealthbeforeCOVID-19

Normalizationofsurveillance,marketconcentration

andpoliticalinfluence

'GoogleknowsmoreaboutyouandmethantheKGB,StasiorGestapoever

dreamedof?8SosaidtheGermanbusinessdailyHANDELSBLATTaboutGoogleStreet

Viewin2010,threeyearsbeforeEdwardSnowdenrevealedtheextentofbigtech's

data-processingactivities.Intheprivatesphere,thefree-to-useplatformsGoogle,

Facebook,Twitterand,morerecently,TikTokhavenormalizedexploitativelevels

ofdatacollectionpermittedintheirtermsofservice,9termedSurveillance

capitalism'byShoshanaZuboff10and'extractiveindustries5byJohnNaughton.11123

Afterashortperiodofextremeopennessandinnovation,theonlinemarketplaceis

nowinthehandsofafew'privatelycontrolledindustrialbehemoths,.12,13

Consolidationisevident,bothattheapplicationlevelandwithinthedeeperlayers

oftheinternet'sarchitecture,14wherethesamefamiliarnames-Google,Amazon,

Facebook,Apple,Microsoft-providecriticalinfrastructureonwhichallother

servicesdepend.

6Brewis,H.(2020),Tailedtest-and-traceappcostmorethan￡11million,Governmentfiguresshow',Evening

StANDARd,19June2020,https:〃www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/test-and-trace-app-cost-uk-government-

1lmillion-a4474386.html.

1AdaLx)velaceInstitute(2020),ExitthroughtheAppStore?.

8Dowling,S.(2010),'GoogleKnowsMoreaboutUsthantheKGB,StasiorGestapo；SPIEGELInterNATiONAL,19

August2010,https:〃www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-world-from-berliirgoogle-knows-more-

about-us-than-the-kgb-stasi-or-gestapo-a-712680.html.

9Taylor,E.(2016),‘ThePrivatizationofHumanRights：IllusionsofConsent,AutomationandNeutrality；

GlobalCommissiononInternetGovernance,PaperSeries：No.24,Januarjr2016.

10Zuboff,S.(2015),'Bigother：surveillancecapitalismandtheprospectsofaninformationcivilization5.

JourNAi.ofInforMATIONTechnology,30(l)：pp.75-89,https://journals.sagepub.eom/doi/10.1057/jit.2015.5.

11Naughton,J.(2016),"Theprofitsandperilsofdrillingforcrudedata*,GUARDIAN,1May2016,

https7//commentisfree/2016/may/01/profits-perils-drilling-data-oil,surveillance-

online-information.

12Wu,T.(2010),TheMASterSwitch:TheRiseANDFALLofInforMATiONEmpires,London：AtlanticBooks,

KindleEdition,p.6.

13U.S.HouseofRepresentativesJudiciaryCommittee(2020),InvesdgATiONofCompetitioninDigitALMARkets：

MAjorityStAFFReportANDRECOMMENDATIONS,SubcommitteeonAntitrust,CommercialandAdministrativeLaw

oftheCommitteeontheJudiciary,U.S.HouseofRepresentatives,https7Z/uploadedfiles/

competition_in_digital_markets.pdf.

14SeeTaylor,E.andHakmeh,J.(eds)(2020),JourNALofCyberPolicy,5(1),SpecialIssue：Consolidationofthe

Internet,https：///toc/rcyb20/5/l?nav=txxjList.

TheCOVID-19pandemicandtrendsintechnology

Transformationsingovernanceandsociety

Themobiletelephonyenvironmentisevenmoretightlyconsolidated,withtwo

operatingsystemsaccountingfor99.75percentoftheglobalmarket-Google's

AndroidandApple'siOS,15eachwiththeirownappstore.16Apple'sAppStoreis

theonlymeansforanappdevelopertodistributesoftwareoniOSdevices；and

whileGoogledoespermitotherappstoresonAndroid,GooglePlayisdominant.17

Apple'sconductinrelationtotheAppStorehasraisedantitrustconcernson

bothsidesoftheAtlantic,18includingthedenialofthirdparties'accesstokey

technologyinordertogaincompetitiveadvantage.19

Commercialsuccesshasbroughtpoliticalinfluencetomatch』。Inasectorinitially

shieldedfromregulation,21laterattemptsbyregulatorstoreininthemarketpower

ofbigtechhavehadlimitedsuccess,22andmayhavehadtheperverseconsequence

ofentrenchingexistingmarketpower.23

Thecompetitiveadvantagetobegainedfromthe

algorithmicmanipulationofbigdatahasengendered

acultureofsecrecy.Alackoftransparencyonthe

partoftechcompaniesmakestheirprocessing

techniquesdifficulttoassess,critiqueorregulate.

TheEU'sflagshipprivacyregulation,theGeneralDataProtectionRegulation

2016/679(GDPR),was'oneofthemostlobbiedpiecesofEuropeanlegislation

inEuropeanUnionhistory5.24WhiletheGDPRhasrequiredenterprisestomake

substantialadjustmentsinthewaytheyhandlepersonaldata,ithasbarelyimpacted

thecorebusinessmodeloftargetedadvertising,enabledbythestorageand

processingofenormousdatatroves.

15StatcounterGlobalStats(1999-2020),'MobileOperatingSystemMarketShareUnitedKingdom；

https:〃/os-market-share/mobile/united-kingdom(accessed8Oct.2020)：TheNetherlands

AuthoritjrforConsumers&Markets(2019),MARketstudyintomobileAPPstores,11April2019,https://www.acm.nl/

sites/default/files/documents/market-study-into'mobile-app-stores.pdf.

16Foranintroductiontotheworldofappsandappstores,seeU.S.HouseofRepresentativesJudiciaryCommittee

(2020),InvestigATiONofCompetitioninDigitALMARkets,SectionIV,D.pp.93ff.

17TheNetherlandsAuthorityforConsumers&Markets(2019),MARketstudyintomobileAPPstores,p.50；

U.S.HouseofRepresentativesJudiciaryCommittee(2020),InvestigATiONofCompetitioninDigitALMARkets,p.95.

18SeeU.S.HouseofRepresentativesJudiciaryCommittee(2020),InvestigATiONofCompetitioninDigitALMARkets,

pp.340ff.,andEuropeanCommission(2020),CompetitionpolicyforthedigitALerA,p.34,httpsV/ec.europa.eu/

competition/publications/reports/kd0419345enn.pdf.

19TheEuropeanCommissionopenedaninvestigationinJune2020inrelationto'Apple'slimitationofaccess

totheNearFieldCommunication(NFC)functionality(wtapandgo")oniPhonesforpaymentsinstores[...]；

SeeEuropeanCommission(2020),'Antitrust：CommissionopensinvestigationintoApplepracticesregarding

ApplePay；PressRelease,16June2020,https-//ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1075.

20PublicCitizen(2014),MissionCreep-y：GoogleIsQuietlyBecomingOneoftheNATION'SMostPowerfulPOLITICAL

ForcesWhileEXPANDINGItsInforMATION-COLLECTIONEmpire,Washington,DC：PublicCitizen'sCongressWatch,

https:〃/wp-content/uploads/google-political-spending-missioircreepy.pdf.

21Techplatformsbenefitfromstatutoryprotectionagainstlia