全球天然氣工業(yè)市場前景及投資研究報(bào)告-培訓(xùn)課件外文版2024.4

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MARKETSNaturalgasindustryworldwideCHAPTER

01OverviewProvednaturalgasreservesworldwideinselectyearsfrom1960to2022(intrillionstandardcubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasprovedreserves1960-202225020015010050019601970198019902000200520102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120223Description:Globalprovednaturalgasreservesamountedtosome210trillionstandardcubicmetersin2022.Since1960,continuedgrowthintheexploration&productionindustryhasresultedinthecombinedvolumeofknownreservesincreasingmorethanten-fold,surpassing200trillioncubicmetersin2011.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960to2022Source(s):OPECNaturalgasproductionworldwidefrom1998to2022(inbillioncubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasproduction1998-20224,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050001998

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20224Description:Globalnaturalgasproductionamountedtosome4.09trillioncubicmetersin2022,signifyingaslightdecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear.Theglobalnaturalgasshareofenergysourcesisexpectedtoincreaseinthefuture.Russia,theUnitedStates,andIranaresomeoftheworld'slargestnaturalgasproducers.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):BPDemandfornaturalgasworldwidefrom2000to2022(inbillionstandardcubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasdemand2000-20224,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002000

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20225Description:Demandfornaturalgashasclimbedtooverfourtrillionstandardcubicmetersinrecentyears.Between2000and2022,demandforthisenergysourcegrewinalmosteveryyearexceptfortimesofeconomiccrisis.In2022,thedemandfornaturalgasworldwideamountedtosome4.09trillionstandardcubicmeters,aslightdecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2022Source(s):OPECCHAPTER

02Reserves&productionProvednaturalgasreservesworldwidein1960and2022,byregion(inbillionstandardcubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasreservesbyregion1960-2022Reservesinbillionstandardcubicmeters2022

196040,000010,00020,00030,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,00082,338MiddleEastRussia4,95747,7591,75329019,89919,18217,928OtherEurasiaOECDAmericasAfrica8,3041,4191,1157,3025,1823,225LatinAmericaOtherAsiaOECDAsiaPacificChina424153,1422,64440OECDEuropeIndia3411,3741588OtherEurope4957Description:TheMiddleEastboastssome82trillionstandardcubicmetersinprovednaturalgasreserves,makingittheregionwithlargestquantitiesofknownreserves.Bycomparison,Russiaalonehousednearly48trillioncubicmetersworthofthefossilfuel,makingitthecountrywiththelargestnaturalreserves.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960and2022Source(s):OPECLeadingcountriesbyprovednaturalgasreservesworldwidein1960and2022(inbillionstandardcubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasreservesbycountry1960-2022Reservesinbillionstandardcubicmeters2022

196025,00005,00010,00015,00020,00030,00035,00033,98840,00045,00050,00047,75955,000RussiaIran1,7531,84023,831Qatar18022816,39613,950UnitedStatesTurkmenistan*SaudiArabiaUnitedArabEmiratesNigeria09,5148,2101,3038075,9135,511Venezuela9534,504Algeria1,3008Description:Russiahasthelargestprovednaturalgasreservesintheworld.Asof2022,itheldreservesworth47.8trillionstandardcubicmetersworthofthefossilfuel.IranandQatarfollowed,withmorethan30and20trillioncubicmeters,respectively.Notablenewdiscoverieshavebeenmadesince1960,whenknownreserveswereonlyafractionofwhattheyaretoday.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1960and2022Source(s):OPECDistributionofconventionalandunconventionalnaturalgasreservesworldwidein2022Globalshareofnaturalgasreservesin2022,byextractionmethodUnconventional6%Conventional94%9Description:Asof2022,naturalgasreservesworldwideamountedtoatotalofapproximately202trillioncubicmeters.Conventionalnaturalgasreservesaccountedforthemajorityofthatvolume,at94percent.Theremainingsixpercentwasattributabletounconventionalnaturalgasreserves,ofwhich86percentwasshalegas.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):Cedigaz;Enerdata;GECFProductionshareofleadingnaturalgasproducingcountriesworldwidein2010and2022Naturalgasproductionshareofleadingproducingcountries2010-2022Shareoftotalglobalproduction2022201015%0%5%10%20%25%30%UnitedStatesRussiaIranChinaCanadaQatarSaudiArabiaNorwayAlgeriaIndonesia10Description:Themajorityoftheworld'snaturalgasisproducedintheUnitedStates.In2022,theU.S.producedaround24.2percentofthetotalglobalnaturalgasoutput,upfrom19.3percentin2010.Thisincreaseislargelyattributedtodevelopmentoffrackingandhorizontaldrillingtechniques.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010and2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

03TradeExportvolumeofnaturalgasingaseousstateworldwidein2015and2022,bycountryGlobalgaseousstatenaturalgasexports2015-2022,bycountry20157816243083202282314Canada(millioncubicmeters)UnitedStates(millioncubicmeters)Uzbekistan(thousandcubicmeters)Norway(thousandmetrictons)Belgium*72599.8679.483488.9248324112298246.130604Algeria(thousandmetrictons)**Azerbaijan(thousandmetrictons)Germany(thousandmetrictons)Bolivia(thousandmetrictons)Myanmar(thousandmetrictons)***22226.113832.113522.87629.82993.66099284001321919812Description:Canadaistheworld'sleadingexporterofnaturalgasingaseousstate.In2022,Canadaexportedover82billioncubicmeters(bcm)ofgaseousstatenaturalgas.Thisfigurerepresentsanincreaseofroughlyfourthousandcubicmetersincomparisonto2015.TheU.S.rankedsecondalthoughitsawadrasticincreaseintheexportvolumeofnaturalgasinthegaseousstate,from43bcmin2015to72bcmin2022.Duringthesameyear,theU.S.wasthetopimportercountryofgaseousstate[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2015and2022Source(s):InternationalTradeCentre;UNComtradeExportvalueofnaturalgasingaseousstateworldwidefrom2010to2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)Globalgaseousstatenaturalgasexportvalue2010-2022400350300373.71250194.4920015010050182.61185.73172.66136.82137.7196.84201890.57201578.32201775.29201961.88201654.0920200201020112012201320142021202213Description:Theexportvalueofnaturalgasingaseousstateacrosstheglobeamountedtonearly373billionU.S.dollarsin2022,whichrepresentedanalltimehighduringtheperiodinconsideration.Thiswasadrasticincreasecomparedtothepreviousyear,whentheexportvalueofnaturalgasinthegaseousstatestoodat137.7billionU.S.dollars.In2021,theUnitedStatesexportedapproximately75billioncubicmetersofthefuel,makingittheworld'stopsecondexportercountryofnaturalgasin[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022Source(s):InternationalTradeCentre;UNComtradeImportvolumeofnaturalgasingaseousstateworldwidein2015and2022,bycountryGlobalgaseousstatenaturalgasimports2015-2022,bycountry201578061.4202281308.960031.620313.66913.7207.1UnitedStates(millioncubicmeters)Mexico(millioncubicmeters)7866491.719235.9Canada(millioncubicmeters)Thailand(thousandmetrictons)Uzbekistan(millioncubicmeters)Tajikistan(millioncubicmeters)Germany(thousandmetrictons)Italy(thousandmetrictons)09722115.162160.939243.33424739928.8Belgium(thousandmetrictons)UnitedKingdom(thousandmetrictons)24655.923850.514Description:TheUnitedStatesistheworld'sleadingimporterofnaturalgasingaseousstate.TheNorthAmericancountryimportedroughly81.3billioncubicmetersofgaseousstatenaturalgasin2022.Thisfigurerepresentsanincreasedcomparedto2015,whenU.S.gasimportsamountedtoapproximately78.1billioncubicmeters.Thatsameyear,theU.S.wasalsothesecondtopexportercountryofgaseousstatenaturalgas.NorthAmericahasanextensivepipelinenetwork,withtheU.S.importing[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2015and2022Source(s):InternationalTradeCentre;UNComtradeImportvalueofnaturalgasingaseousstateworldwidefrom2010to2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)Globalgaseousstatenaturalgasimportvalue2010-2022400350300378.27250208.72198.74199.1220015010050183.95182.94153.86145.25138.21122.12017110.492019103.09201678.032020020102011201220132014201520182021202215Description:Theworldwideimportvalueofnaturalgasingaseousstateamountedtosome378.3billionU.S.dollarsin2022,whichrepresentedthehighestvalueduringtheperiodinconsideration.In2021,theUnitedStatesimportedover76.15billioncubicmetersofthefuel,makingittheworld'stopimportercountryofnaturalgasingaseousstate.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2022Source(s):InternationalTradeCentre;UNComtradeCHAPTER

04PricesWeeklyU.S.HenryHubnaturalgaspricesfromMarch4,2022toMarch1,2024(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)U.S.HenryHubpricesperweek2022-202410.59.58.57.56.55.54.53.52.51.50.517Description:OnMarch1,2024,theHenryHubnaturalgaspriceamountedto1.58U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits.Thiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousweek.Generally,naturalgaspriceshavebeendecliningcomparedtotheprevioustwoyears.In2022pricessawanetincreaseduetoanenergycrunchthathadbeenworsenedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar.TheEuropeangasbenchmarkDutchTTFalsosoaredtorecordlevelsasaresult.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;March4,2022toMarch1,2024Source(s):EIA;NYMEXDutchTTFgasfuturesatthebeginningofeachweekfromMarch28,2022toMarch25,2024(ineurospermegawatthour)WeeklyDutchTTFgasprices2022-202430025020015010050018Description:DutchTTFgasfuturesamountedto28.49eurospermegawatthouronMarch25,2024forcontractswithdeliveryinApril2024.DutchTTFisseenasaEurope-widenaturalgaspricebenchmark.Gaspriceshavebeenlowerthanexpectedthroughoutthewinterof2023/24aswarmeraveragetemperaturesacrossthecontinenttranslatedintoreducedheatingdemandandallowedsupplierstokeepstockpileshigh.

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;March28,2022toMarch25,2024;Pricesatthebeginningofeachweek.Source(s):IntercontinentalExchangeMonthlypricesfornaturalgasintheUnitedStatesandEuropefromJanuary2014toDecember2023(innominalU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)MonthlynaturalgaspricesintheUnitedStatesandEurope2014-2023UnitedStatesEurope8070605040302010019Description:TheaveragemonthlypricefornaturalgasintheUnitedStatesfellto2.53nominalU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits(Btu)inDecember2023.Bycontrast,naturalgaspricesinEuropewereaboutfivetimeshigherthanthoseoftheU.S.PricesacrosstheEuropeancontinenttendtobenotablyhigherthanthoseintheU.S.asthelatterbenefitsfrombeingamajorhydrocarbonproducer.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,UnitedStates;January2014toDecember2023Source(s):Varioussources;WorldBankNaturalgascommoditypricesinEuropeandtheUnitedStatesfrom1980to2022,withaforecastfor2023and2024(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)NaturalgascommoditypricesinEuropeandtheU.S.1980-2024EuropeU.S.45403530252015105019801990200020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*

2024*20Description:In2022,thepriceofnaturalgasinEuropereached40.3constantU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits,comparedwith6.4U.S.dollarsintheU.S.Thesteepincreaseinpricesisduetothefalloutfromtheenergysupplyshortagewhichbeganin2021andfurtherconstraintsresultingfromtheRussia-Ukrainewar.Since1980,naturalgaspriceshavetypicallybeenhigherinEuropethanintheUnitedStatesandareexpectedtoremainsoforthecomingtwoyears.ThisisduetotheU.S.being[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,UnitedStates;1980to2022;pricesinconstantU.S.dollars.;*Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankNaturalgascommoditypricesinselectedmarketsin2020to2022,withaforecastuntil2024(innominalU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)Globalnaturalgascommoditypricesbyregion2020-2024EuropeU.S.Japan**4540353025201510502020202120222023*2024*21Description:NaturalgaspricesincreasedacrossEurope,theUnitedStates,andJapanin2021dueinlargeparttoanenergysupplyshortagebroughtaboutbyanincreaseinelectricitydemand.Apartfromeconomicdeterminants,unexpectedlycoldwintersorwarmsummersmayalsodrivepricespikes.In2022,naturalgaspricesincreasedfurther,largelyasaresultoftightersuppliesfollowingtheRussia-Ukrainewar.Duringthesameyear,Europesawanannualaveragepriceof40.3nominalU.S.[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020to2022;*Forecast.**DataforJapanreferstoliquefiednaturalgascosts.ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankCHAPTER

05ConsumptionNaturalgasconsumptionworldwidefrom1998to2022(inbillioncubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasconsumption1998-20224,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050001998

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202223Description:Worldwidenaturalgasconsumptionhasbeenrisingoverthepast20years.In2022,naturalgasconsumptionworldwideamountedtoroughly3.94trillioncubicmeters.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1998to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCountrieswithlargestnaturalgasconsumptionworldwidein2022(inbillioncubicmeters)Globalnaturalgasconsumption2022,bycountryConsumptioninbillioncubicmetersUnitedStatesRussia915.1504.5China358.3Iran253.5CanadaSaudiArabiaJapan121.6120.4100.583.180.672.7MexicoGermanyUnitedKingdom24Description:TheUnitedStatesconsumedaround915billioncubicmetersofnaturalgasin2022.Thiswasfarmorethananyothercountryintheworld.Thecountryisamajorgasproducerandabletosatisfyitsgasdemandthroughdomesticproduction.OtherlargeconsumerandproducercountriesincludeRussia,Iran,andSaudiArabia.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):BGRConsumptionshareofleadingnaturalgasconsumingcountriesworldwidein2022Naturalgasconsumptionshareofleadingconsumingcountries2022Shareoftotalconsumption10%0%5%15%20%25%UnitedStatesRussia22.4%10.4%9.5%ChinaIran5.8%Canada3.1%3.1%SaudiArabiaJapan2.5%2.5%MexicoGermanyUnitedKingdom2%1.8%25Description:TheUnitedStatesaccountedfor22.4percentoftheglobalnaturalgasconsumptionin2022,becomingtheleadingconsumerofnaturalgasacrosstheglobe.Russiarankedsecondthatyear,withaconsumptionsharethatreachedsome10.4percentofthetotalnaturalgasconsumptionworldwide.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGCHAPTER

06CompaniesNaturalgasproductionbyselectcompaniesworldwidein2022(inbillioncubicfeetperday)Averagedailynaturalgasproductionbyselectedcompanies2022Productionoutputinbillioncubicfeetperday0123456789ExxonMobilShell*8.37.9ChevronBP7.77.1TotalEnergiesEni6.84.7Equinor**ConocoPhillips3.93.127Description:ExxonMobilwasthecompanywiththehighestnaturalgasproductionamongoilsupermajorsin2022.Thatyear,theUnitedStates-basedhydrocarbonproducerreportedanaturalgasoutputofsome8.3billioncubicfeetperday.Thiscomparedtoroughly7.9billioncubicfeetperdayattributedtoShell.ReadmoreNote(s):WorldwideSource(s):BP;Chevron;ConocoPhillips;Eni;Equinor;ExxonMobil;Shell;TotalEnergiesLeadingoilandgascompaniesworldwidebasedonrevenueasof2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)Leadingglobaloilandgasproducersbasedonrevenue2023RevenueinbillionU.S.dollars050100150200250300350400Sinopec,China*PetroChina,ChinaExxonMobil,U.S.ShellPLC,UK372.52357.01313.9305.57TotalEnergies,FranceBP,UK204.96197.56184.75Chevron,U.S.MarathonPetroleum,U.S.Valero,U.S.139.66138.64Phillips66,U.S.133.81Equinor,NorwayEniSpA.,Italy113.08109.06Petrobras,BrazilIndianOilCorporationLtd,IndiaLukoil,Russia104.1391.890.7428Description:Sinopec(ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorporation)istheleadingglobaloilandgascompanybyrevenuesgenerated.Inits2022fiscalyear,theChinesestate-ownedenterprisegenerated372.5billionU.S.dollarsinrevenues.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022Source(s):ThomsonReuters;Varioussources(companydata)LeadingoilandgascompaniesworldwidebasedonmarketcapitalizationasofDecember2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)LeadingglobaloilandgasproducersbasedonmarketcapDecember2023MarketcapitalizationinbillionU.S.dollars050100150200250300350ExxonMobil,U.S.Chevron,U.S.309.75212.87RoyalDutchShell,UKRelianceIndustries,IndiaPetroChina,China162.29158.39132.36125.11TotalEnergies,FranceConocoPhillips,U.S.104.53BP,UKPetrobras,BrazilEquinor,Norway77.772.9372.35ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorp.(Sinopec),ChinaChinaShenhua,ChinaCNOOC,China66.3964.562.98EnbridgeIncSchlumberger,U.S.58.7554.9729Description:ExxonMobilhasthehighestmarketcapitalizationofanyoilandgasproducerworldwide.AsofDecember8,2023,theUnitedStates-basedcompanyhadamarketcapof309.75billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;asofDecember8,2023Source(s):ThomsonReuters;Varioussources(companydata)Leadingoilandgascompaniesworldwidebasedonnumberofemployeesasof2023(in1,000s)Leadingglobaloilandgascompaniesbasedonemployeenumbers2023Numberofemployeesinthousands150

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250050100300350400450500550Gazprom,RussiaPetroChina,ChinaRelianceIndustries,IndiaSinopec,China*492.2398.44389.41374.79Rosneft,Russia334.6KocHolding,TurkeyTransneft,Russia123.97115.9113Surgutneftegaz,RussiaLukoil,Russia102.42101.28TotalEnergies,France30Description:Gazpromisthelargestoilandgascompanyworldwidebynumberofemployees.Asof2023,theRussiancompanywasemployertosome492,200people.Themajorityofcompaniesinthisrankingarestate-ownedenterprises.RelianceIndustriesisthehighestrankingpubliccompany,withaworkforceofnearly390,000people.ReadmoreNote(s):WorldwideSource(s):ThomsonReuters;Varioussources(companydata)Distributionofcashspendingofmajoroilandgascompaniesworldwidefrom2015to2022Majoroilandgascompanies'spendingbreakdown2015-2022Oilandgascapitalexpenditure120%CleanenergycapitalexpenditureDividends*Netdebtrepayment100%80%60%40%20%0%0%13%0%0%0%0%18%0%0%28%0%0%0%7%13%13%27%0%29%0%26%1%39%1%93%87%82%72%71%73%60%47%2015201620172018201920202021202231Description:In2022,majoroilandgascorporationsworldwideprioritizedenhancingshareholderdividendsandreducingdebtcomparedtopreviousyears.Additionally,47percentofprofitswereallocatedtooilandgascapitalexpenditurethatsameyear.Meanwhile,spendingoncleanenergysourcesamountedtomerelyonepercent.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;*Dividendsconsistofsharebuybacksbutexcludeshareissuances.ReadmoreSource(s):IEA;VisualCapitalistCHAPTER

07Employment&marketdataReturnrateonnaturalgasinvestmentsworldwidefrom2010to2023Globalnaturalgasinvestmentreturns2010-202380%59.35%60%46.91%40%26.23%19.97%15.99%20%0%12.11%-0.44%-19.11%2015-20.94%2010-20.7%2017-25.54%2019-20%-40%-60%-31.21%2014-32.15%2011-43.82%2023201220132016201820202021202233Description:Naturalgasinvestmentshada43.82percentrareoflossin2022.Returnswereparticularlyhighayearprior,followingabottleneckofgassupplyinthefall,whichcontributedtoanearlyworldwideenergysupplyshortage.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2023Source(s):Blo