哥倫比亞配電網(wǎng)容納電動汽車的能力-2024-01-新能源

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AKNOWLEDGENOTESERIESFORTHEENERGY&EXTRACTIVESGLOBALPRACTICE

CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Thebottomline.Transportmustbedecarbonizedifclimatecommitmentsaretobemet.

ColombiaisaleaderintheadoptionofelectricvehiclesinLatinAmerica.However,thegrowthoftheEVmarketcancreateoperationalandplanningchallengesforthepowergrid.Fortunately,recentanalysesshowthatColombia’sdistributiongridshavethecapacitytoaccommodatetheincreasedpowerdemandcreatedbyelectricvehiclesintheshortandmediumterms,paving

thewayforachievementofclimatetargets.Theresultsofsimulationssuggestthatnetwork

operatorscanplaneffectivelyforthefuturebyconsideringthegrowingpenetrationofEVsinthedesignofnewgrids.

CanColombia’spowerdistributionnetworksaccommodategrowingdemandfrom

electricvehicles?

Thecountry’snationalplanningdepartmentrequestedWorldBanksupporttofindout

TheWorldBankhasbeenprovidingtechnicaladviceandexpertisetohelpColombiaanditsNationalPlanningDepartmentadvancethecountry’senergytransition.Theobjectiveofthetechnicalassistanceinvolvessupportfordigitalizinganddecentralizingthedemandforelectricitywhilealsomakingdemandmoreefficient.Inthecontextofthiseffort,theNationalPlanningDepartmentassessed

thecapacityofthecountry’sdistributionnetworkstomeetthegrowingdemandassociatedwithelectricmobility.Theresultingreportwascompletedinlate2022(WorldBank2022).

Inthefirstphaseoftheevaluation,fourscenariosweredefinedtoprojectthegrowthofEVsinthecountryandtheassociateddemandforelectricityfromthepowergrid.Inthesecondpart,withthesupportoffourrepresentativeelectric-itynetworkoperators(NOs),aspatialandtemporalmodelwasdevelopedtoidentifythedemandincreaseonspecificelectricalcircuitsassociatedwithgrowingEVpenetration.Basedontheseprojections,impactassessmentswerecar-riedouttogaugetheimpactofdemandforEVchargingsys-temsontheselectedpowergrids.Finally,recommendationsweremadetomeetfutureneedsforelectricalinfrastructure.

ClaudiaVasquezSuarezisaleadenergy

specialistintheEnergyandExtractivesUnitattheWorldBank.

RobertoEstevezisanenergyspecialistinthesameunit.

ArcenioTorresisgeneralmanagerofUSAENE,anenergyconsultingcompanyinBogota,Colombia.

ThefourEVpenetrationscenariosaredescribedbelowandillustratedinfigure1.

WORLDBANKGROUP

Supportedby

ESMAP

EnergysectorManagementAssistanceprogram

NumberofEVs

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Figure1.EVpenetrationinColombia:fourscenarios

1,000,000

800,000

600.000

400,000

200,000

0

266NewStakesBusinessasUsualChile

Scenario

Trucksunder10tons

Buses

Taxis

Lightplug-inhybridelectricvehicles

Lightbatteryelectricvehicles

Scenario266isbasedontheCOP21emissions-reductiontar-get(266milliontonsby2030)aswellasthetargetsoutlinedinthegreengrowthplansofColombia’sNationalCouncilofEconomicandSocialPolicy,whichforesee600,000EVsinthecountryby2030.

TheNewStakesScenario(NS)isbasedonthe2020–50NationalEnergyPlan,whichsetshigherEVpenetrationtar-gets,reaching600,000lightbatteryelectricvehiclesaloneby2030.ThepoliciesaimtoreduceGHGemissionsandatmosphericpollutantsaswellastomeettheconditionaltargetoftheParisAgreement,whichwouldresultina30percentreductionofGHGemissionsby2030.

TheBusiness-as-UsualScenario(BaU)issimilartoScenario266buttakesintoaccountthedropinEVsalesin2020duetotheCOVID-19pandemic,followedbyaslowrecoveryingrowthratesthrough2023,whenthescenarioresumeswiththegrowthratesprojectedinScenario266.

TheReferenceCountry(Chile)Scenarioisbasedonthetar-getsestablishedintheElectricMobilityStudyinChile2018,whichforeseesthat20percentofthecountry’sfleetinallsectorswillbeelectricby2050.

Forthesescenarios,aloadcurveforEVchargingwascon-structedbasedonusagehabits,chargingpatterns,andthespecificationsofEVssoldinColombia.Theusagehabitstakeintoaccountthestartandendtimesoftrips;thearrivaltimeofEVsathomes,worksites,parkinglotsandspaces(depend-ingontheEVsegment);andthedailydistancetraveled.Withthisdata,energyconsumptioncanbeestimatedbyusingthespecificationsofeachEVsegment.ChargingpatternsaredeterminedbasedonEVpowercapacity,chargingloca-tions,andtheestimatedtimeneededtochargeEVsaccord-ingtotheirspecifications.Usingthisasabase,theenergyandpowerdemandcurvewasgenerated.

Asanexample,in2030underScenario266,theenergydemandcurveforEVsinBogotawillresemblethatpresentedinfigure2.

Thedemandforelectricpowerpeaksat8p.m.forlightvehi-cles,butifelectricbusesaretakenintoaccount,thepeakhourshiftsto10p.m(22:00).

BycombiningtheloadcurveswithEVprojections,theoverallprojectionscenariosofpeakpowerandenergyconsumedbyEVsinColombiacanbedetermined(figure3).

Power(kW)

Peakpower(MW)

EVenergy(GWh/year)

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Figure2.PowerdemandcurveforEVsinBogotain2030underoneoftheanalyzedscenarios(Scenario266)

160

140

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20

0

0:001:002:003:004:005:006:007:008:009:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:0020:0021:0022:0023:00

BatteryEVsathome

Plug-inhybridsathomeTrucksunder10tons

Time

BatteryEVsatoice

Plug-inhybridsatoiceBuses

BatteryEVs,publiccharging

Taxis

Motorcycles

Figure3.ComparisonofpeakpowerandEVdemand,byscenarioandyear

266NewStakesBusinessasUsualChile

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

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2020202520302035204020452050

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

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15,000

10,000

5,000

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2020202520302035204020452050

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Theadditionalpowerrequirementsfor2030varyfroma500to4,000MWpeak,dependingonthepenetrationscenario.Intermsofenergy,thisrangevariesfrom100GWh/yearto10,000GWh/yearforthesameyear(0.11percentto9.6per-centofprojecteddemandfor2030,respectively).

FortheEVpenetrationlevelspredicted

inthescenariosconsidered,thisstudy

concludesthatnowidespreadimpactonthedistributionnetworksisexpectedintheshortandmediumterm.However,itispossible

thatspecificproblemsmayemergeinthenetworks,whichoperatorswouldhavetoaddress.

HowwasEVloadonpowersystemstested?

Demandsimulationsweregeneratedusingaspatialdemandmodel

Spatialdemandisdeterminedby(i)thetypesofusers,suchaslightvehicles,taxis,trucks,andpublictransportation;(ii)transportationroutes;(iii)parkinglocations;and(iv)electricalchargingrequirements.

Colombiahas29distributionnetworkoperators(NOs)responsiblefortheplanning,investment,operation,andmaintenanceofthelocaldistributionandregionaltrans-missionsystems.1Amongthese,Bogota,Antioquia,andValledelCaucahavethelargestnumberofusersconnectedtothenationalsystemandwerethereforeamongtheNOsselectedforanalysis.2

1.Localpowerdistributioninvolvesthelines,substations,andassociated

equipmentoperatingatvoltagelevels1,2,and3andusedtoprovide

commercialservices.TheregionaltransmissionsystemconsistsoftheassetsconnectingNOswiththeregionalandnationaltransmissionsystemoperat-ingatvoltagelevel4.

2.Bogota,Antioquia,andValledelCaucahave2,092,214users,1,747,341users,and1,059,168users,respectively.

ToestimatespatialandtemporaldemandintheseNOs,arepresentativesampleofcircuitswasselectedincollabora-tionwiththeNOs,includingavarietyofEVloadcombina-tions.Foreachcircuitthefollowingwereanalyzed:(i)fourpenetrationscenarios:266,NS,BaU,Chile;(ii)threeperiodsoftime:2030,2040,2050;(iii)threetypesofdays:week-days,Saturdays,holidays;and(iv)the24hoursoftheday,foratotalofnearly860casespercircuit.

TheimpactofEVpenetrationonthenetworkswasmea-suredforthethreetypesofelementsidentified:mediumvoltage(MV)linesegments,links(connectionsbetweentheMVcircuitsandthedistributioncircuit),anddistributioncir-cuittransformers.

Whatdothesimulationssuggestforelectricitydistributionplanning?

Urgentactionisnotneeded,butplanningwillhelpanticipatepossiblenetworkconstraintsinthefuture

FortheEVpenetrationlevelspredictedinthescenariosconsidered,thisstudyconcludesthatnowidespreadimpactonthedistributionnetworksisexpectedthrough2050.Nomajoradditionalinvestmentstothedistributionnetworksareneededoverthisperiod,abovethoseneededtosup-plythenaturalgrowthofconventionaldemand.VariationsinaverageloadofMVcircuitsowingtoVEscenarioswereobservedinarangeoflessthan0.5percentofthecapacity,whileindistributioncentertransformerstheaverageloadincreasedbyupto1.5percent.

However,itispossiblethatspecificconstraintsmayemergeinthenetworks,whichoperatorswouldhavetoaddress.Indeed,insomecases,componentsofthegrid,suchassubstations,werefoundtohavehighloadlevels,whichmayrequireadditionalinvestmentsortheimplementationofpro-activeactions(suchasvariablerates)tolimitchargingpoweranddisincentivizequickcharging.

Additionalanalysesofextremescenariosmadeitpossibletoidentifythemostsensitivenetworkcomponentsgiventhecharacteristicsofeachdistributionsystemand,therefore,todevisepotentialalternativesforstrengtheningthenetworksaccordingly.Differentactionsarecalledforinthefaceofspecificconstraints.

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

3Saturationofpowersupplylinesfromsubstations.Thissituationindicatesthattheeffectonthenetworkcouldbesignificantsince,overtime,itwouldrequirearein-forcementofthefeedercircuit,thusaffectingtheentirearea—andeventheMVsubstationitselfifothercircuitsleavingthesubstationbehavedinasimilarway.

3SaturationofsectionsoftheMVline.Thissituationcouldmakeitnecessarytoscheduletime-specificreplacementsforthenetworkasdemandincreased.

3Saturationatthelevelofthedistributioncenter.Thistypeofsaturationwouldrequirethereplacementoftheaffectedtransformer(oranincreaseofpowerthroughtheadditionofparalleltransformers).

Recommendationsfordistributionnetworkplanning

Basedontheanalysisabove,NOscouldtakeawidevarietyofactionstoplanforgrowingEVpenetration:

3IncorporatingEVpenetrationscenariosintoplanningexercises,especiallyinareaswiththegreatestpoten-tialfornewdemand,soastoanalyzecriticalpointsofconstraintindistributionnetworks.ThiswouldallowNOstomakenecessaryadjustmentstothenetworkinresponsetodemandincreasesstemmingfromgreaterEVpenetration.

3ConductingcontinuousmonitoringandanalysisofboththenaturalgrowthofconventionaldemandandchangesintheunitconsumptiondemandsofEVs,reflectingthetypeofvehiclesandchargingsystemsenteringthemar-ket.ThisshouldincludemonitoringtheadditionofnewelectricchargingpointsservingEVsinordertostayuptodateontheconcentrationandpaceofdemandgrowthintheirnetworks.

3IntegratingupdatedcommunicationprotocolsandmanagementsystemsthatmakeitpossibletocontrolEVcharginganddischarginginsupportofgridoperations.Althoughthiswouldrequireasignificantinvestment,via-blebusinessmodelsareavailable.Theuseofnighttariffscouldhelpreduceordelayinvestments.

Theanalysisofextremescenarios

makesitpossibletoidentifythemost

sensitivenetworkcomponentsinviewof

thecharacteristicsofeachdistribution

systemand,therefore,todevisepotentialalternativesforimprovingthenetworks.

3Preparingforimpactsofchangesinchargingpoweranddeploymentspeeds.Suchpreparationinvolvesevaluatingtheimpactonthegridoftheinstallationofincreasinglypowerfulchargersandpossiblyadjustingthespecificationsofnewresidentialbuildingstoimproveaccesstothemostcost-efficientEVchargingsystems.

RecommendationsforEVregulations

Itisrecommendedthatregulatorsoptimizetheuseofpowerinfrastructurebytakingthefollowingactions:

3Makeuseoftime-basedvariableelectricityrates(day,week,year).Differenttypesofvariablerates(time-of-usetariffs)areusefulwhengridsaturationoccursatcertaintimesoftheday,week,oryear(IRENA2019).Thegen-eralconceptistoapplyhighpricesattimeswhenthegridisexpectedtobesaturatedsoastodisincentivizeconsumptionatthosetimes.ItcanbeappliedtobothconsumptionforEVchargingandconventionaldemand,differentiatingbytypeofconsumer.

3Studyoptionsforenablingandstimulatingdiffer-entiatedmeasurementofEVloads.Withrespecttoresidentialcharging,aspecificmeterformeasuringEVchargingwouldbenecessary.ThiswouldrepresentanadditionalcostforNOsorusers,andtheallocationofthatcostshouldbeanalyzed.WithrespecttoEVdemandforpowerinpublicareas,Colombia’sResolutionCREG171of2021proposestwoalternativesfordifferentiatedmea-surementoftheelectricityusedforEVchargingincon-ventionalservicestationsorbuschargingyards(tomakeitpossible,ifdesired,toapplythediscountestablishedbyLaw143of1994andallowNOstoevaluatetheimpactthishasonthegrid).

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Inall,eventhoughthegrowthofColombia’sEVmarket,whichisaleaderinLatinAmerica,willcreateoperationalandplanningchallengesforthepowergrid,thecountry’sdistributiongridshavetheoverallcapacitytoaccommo-dategrowingpowerdemandintheshortandmediumterm.Throughadequateplanningandregulation,thecountrycaneffectivelyprepareforafuturewithincreasingpenetrationofEVs.

TheauthorsacknowledgethecontributionsofUSAENE(www.)andTecnalia()tothetechnicalassistancedescribedinthisbrief.

3Enablevehicle-to-grid(V2G)businessmodels.These

modelsallowenergytobeinjectedintothegridbydis-

chargingtheenergystoredinEVbatteries.Wherethis

optionispursued,“smartgrids”areessential,asthey

makeitpossibletoproperlymanageV2Gsystemsbased

onbidirectionalconverters.BecauseV2Grequiresgreater

investmentininfrastructure,itshouldbeundertaken

basedondemand.Thereiscurrentlynobusinessmodel

thatwouldleadEVownerstobeinterestedinthistech-

nology.Becausevehiclebatteriesareaconsumablegood

withadeterminednumberofcycles,injectingenergy

intothegridreducesdrivingtimeoverthebattery’suse-

fullife.Inaddition,thepurchasepriceofEVswouldbe

higheriftheywereequippedwithonboardbidirectional

converters.

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Andemos.Informesectorautomotor–vehículosBEVPHEVHEV.

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DANE.2020.Proyeccionesdepoblación.https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/proyepobla06_20/MProyeccionesMunicipalesedadsexo.pdf.

IEA.2020.GlobalEVOutlook2020:EnteringtheDecadeof

ElectricDrive?InternationalEnergyAgency,Paris.https://www./reports/global-ev-outlook-2020.

IRENA.2019.“Innovationlandscapebrief:Time-of-usetariffs.”InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

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WorldBank.2022.“Evaluacióndelacapacidaddehospedajedevehículoseléctricos(VEs)delasredesdedistribuciónparaatenderlasdemandasgeneradasporlaelectromovilidadenColombia.”USAENES.A.S.2022.

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CapacityofColombia’spowerdistributionnetworkstoaccommodateelectricvehicles

Makefurtherconnections

LiveWire2023/128.“OfftheBooks:Understandingand

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HerreraDappe,VivienFoster,AldoMusacchio,TeresaTer-

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LiveWire2021/116.“StationaryEnergyStoragetoTransform

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