首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家展望：2024年1月-世界經(jīng)濟論壇（英）

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

January2024

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

January2024

Thisquarterlybriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicydevelopmentresearchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothecompoundingshockstotheglobaleconomyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingwas

conductedinNovember-December2023.

3

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Contents

Executivesummary___________________________________________________________5

Globalconditionsremainsubdued__________________________________________7Growthmomentumisslowingacrossregions___________________________________7Tighteningcyclemaybenearingtheend______________________________________10

Geopoliticalriftscompounduncertainty_____________________________________12Fragmentationcloudstheoutlook____________________________________________12Governmentscontinuetoturninward_________________________________________15

Artificialintelligencetakesthespotlight_____________________________________18AImayexpandtheproductivityfrontier________________________________________18Navigatingthesocietalimpact_______________________________________________20

References__________________________________________________________________23

Contributors_________________________________________________________________28

Acknowledgements__________________________________________________________29

Cover:Unsplash

4

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Executivesummary

TheJanuary2024ChiefEconomistsOutlooklaunchesamidprotractedweaknessinglobaleconomicconditionsandwideningregionaldivergence.Uncertaintythatdominatedtheoutlookoverthelastyearcontinuestocloudnear-termeconomicdevelopments:56%ofchiefeconomistsexpecttheglobaleconomytoweakenoverthenextyear,butanother43%foreseeunchangedorstrongerconditions.

Whiletherearepositivedevelopments,suchaseasinginflationarypressuresandadvancesinthefieldofartificialintelligence(AI),businessesandpolicy-makersfacepersistentheadwindsandcontinuedvolatilityasglobaleconomicactivityremainsslow,financialconditionsremaintightandgeopoliticalriftsandsocialstrainscontinuetogrow.

Regionally,theresultshighlightdiverginggrowthpatterns.ThemostbuoyanteconomicactivityisstillexpectedinSouthandEastAsia.Chinaremainsanexception,withthepreviouscombinationofstrongandmoderategrowthexpectationsbeingreplacedwithlargelymoderate(69%)expectationsfor2024.IntheUSandtheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,theoutlookhasweakenedsincetheSeptember2023editionoftheChiefEconomistsOutlook,withaboutsixoutoftenrespondentsexpectingmoderateorstrongergrowththisyear.InEurope,77%expectweakorveryweakgrowthin2024.

Elsewhereintheworld,theexpectationsareforbroadlymoderategrowth.

Thesurveyresultsreflecttheimprovementintheinflationoutlookfor2024,withexpectationsforhighinflationbeingparedbackacrossallregions.Themajorityalsoexpectthatlabourmarkets(77%)andfinancialconditions(70%)willloosen.

Thiseditionoftheoutlookfocusesontwokeyphenomenaimpactingtheglobaleconomy–geopoliticaldevelopmentsandadvancementsingenerativeAI.Almostsevenoutoftenchiefeconomistsexpectthepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationtoacceleratethisyear.Themajorityofrespondentssayitwillstokevolatilityintheglobaleconomy(87%)andinstockmarkets(80%).Thereappearstobeequallystrongconsensusthatrecentgeopoliticaldevelopmentswillincreaselocalization(86%)andstrengthengeoeconomicblocs(80%).Almostsixoutoften(57%)alsoexpectittoincreaseinequalityandwidentheNorth-Southdivideinthenextthreeyears.

Growingglobalfragmentationiscloselyintertwinedwiththeresurgenceinindustrialpolicies.Abouttwo-thirdsexpectthesepoliciestoenabletheemergenceofneweconomicgrowthhotspotsandvitalnewindustries,withthemajoritywarningofrisingfiscalstrains(79%)anddivergencebetweenhigher-andlower-incomeeconomies(66%).

5

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Respondentsarealmostunanimousinexpectingthesepoliciestoremainlargelyuncoordinatedbetweencountries,withadifferentmixofdefensiveandenablingapproachesinhigh-andlow-incomeeconomies.

Therapidadvancesinthefieldofartificialintelligenceputitontopofbusinessandpolicyagendasin2024.RespondentsarenotablymoreoptimisticaboutAI-enabledbenefitsinhigh-incomeeconomiesthanindevelopingeconomies,includinganincrease

intheefficiencyofoutputproduction(79%)andinnovation(74%),withamoremixedpictureregardingstandardsofliving(57%).Chiefeconomistsarealmostunanimous(94%)inexpectingproductivitygainstobecomeeconomicallysignificantinhigh-incomeeconomiesinthenextfiveyears,comparedtoonly53%forlow-incomeeconomies.TheviewsaresomewhatmoredividedonthelikelihoodofgenerativeAIresultinginadeclineintrustacrosshigh-income(56%)andlow-income(44%)economiesthisyear.

6

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Globalconditionsremainsubdued

Growthmomentumisslowingacrossregions

Globaleconomicprospectsremainsubduedandfraughtwithuncertainty,accordingtothelatestsurveyofchiefeconomists.Although56%ofchiefeconomistsexpecttheglobaleconomy

toweakenoverthenextyear,20%foreseeunchangedconditionsandnearlyaquarterexpectstrongerconditions(seeFigure1).

Thesesomewhatdividedresultshighlightthattheambiguitythatdominatedtheoutlookoverthelastyearcontinuestocloudnear-termeconomicdevelopments.

Figure1.Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingattheyearahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

MuchweakerSomewhatweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

3 14 53 20 23

Shareofrespondents(%)

Note:Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Therelativeresilienceoftheworld

economyintherecentyearswillcontinue

tobetestedentering2024.Globaleconomic

activityisstallingwithsignsofslowdowninboththemanufacturingandservicessectors.1Tightfinancialconditionsweighonconsumerandbusinesssentiments,2whilefiscalandmonetarypolicy-makersareassessingtrade-offsandsequencingforcarefulpolicycalibration.

Theeconomicbackdropismarkedbyprotractedweaknessinglobalgrowthandwideningdivergence.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)forecastsaslightdeclineinglobalgrowthto2.9%in2024,downfrom3%in2023.3Therelativeresilienceinglobalfigurescontinuestorelyonthegrowthperformanceofemergingeconomies,whilethemomentuminadvancedeconomiesisfading.

S&PGlobal,December2023b.

Lane,April2023.

IMF,October2023.

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ChiefEconomistsOutlook

However,growthforecastsremainvulnerabletoanincreasedriskofshocks.Thegeopoliticalriftshighlightedasasourceofglobaleconomicvolatilityinthelastsurvey4havesinceincreasedwithnewconflictseruptingorworseninginAfrica,theMiddleEast5andLatinAmerica.6

Figure2.Growthexpectations

Whileeconomicheadwindsremaincontained,theseescalationsriskrupturingsupplychainsandsendingshockwavesbeyondthecommoditymarkets.Furtheruncertaintyhingesontheoutcomesofelectioncyclesinthecomingyear.

Whatisyourexpectationforeconomicgrowthinthefollowinggeographiesin2024?

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

SouthAsia

5

7

41

52

EastAsiaandPacific

15

56

30

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

4

35

46

15

CentralAsia

16

72

12

LatinAmericaandtheCarribbean

30

59

11

UnitedStates

3

40

53

3

China

31

69

Sub-SaharanAfrica

35

65

Europe

10

67

23

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Regionalperformanceexpectationsarehighlyvaried(seeFigure2).ChiefeconomistscontinuetoseethemostbuoyanteconomicactivityintheeconomiesofAsia,althoughnoregionisslatedforverystronggrowthin2024.TheoutlookforSouthAsiaandEastAsiaandPacificremainspositiveandbroadlyunchangedcomparedtothelastsurvey,with93%and86%expectingmoderateorstrongergrowthforSouthAsiaandEastAsia

andPacific,respectively.Chinaisanotableexceptionasweakconsumption,lowerindustrialproductionanddistressinpropertymarketsweighontheprospectsofastrongerreboundin2024.7Theviewsofchiefeconomistshavealsoshifted,withstrong(19%)andmoderate(38%)expectationsintheprevioussurveyreplacedwithlargelymoderate(69%)expectationsfor2024.

WorldEconomicForum,September2023a.

Livnietal.,November2023.

Delcas,December2023.

IMF,October2023.

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ChiefEconomistsOutlook

ThechangeintheoutlookforEuropeisparticularlystark,withtheshareofrespondentsexpectingweakorveryweakgrowthalmostdoublingto77%sinceSeptember.IntheUS,theexpectationsaresignificantlyweakertoo,with56%foreseeingmoderateorhighergrowthin2024,comparedto78%intheprevioussurvey.Botheconomiesconfronttightlendingconditions,aslowdowninmanufacturingandexposuretogeopoliticalrifts.

ExpectationsforgrowthhavestrengthenedinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanandSub-SaharanAfrica,withaslightuptick

intheshareofrespondentsexpectingatleastmoderategrowthto70%and65%,respectively.InCentralAsia,theimprovementismorepronouncedwithabout84%ofrespondentsexpectingatleastmoderategrowthin2024,upfrom66%intheprevioussurvey.

IntheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,theexpectationshaveslightlyweakenedreflectingbroaderuncertaintyaboutthetrajectoryoftheIsrael-Hamaswaranditsimplicationsforthewiderregion.Although61%stillforeseemoderateorstrongergrowthin2024,regionalprospectsremaincloudedbyweakoildemand8andasharpcontractionintourism.9

Thenear-termoutlookfortheregionsdiscussedarrivesafteraprotracted

slowdownofgrowthmomentumacrossallgeographies.Accordingtooneestimate,averageannualgrowthhasdeclinedfrom

2.0%intheearly2000sto1.4%inthepost-COVID-19periodinadvancedeconomiesandfrom5.8%to1.7%inemerginganddevelopingeconomies.10Theprospectsofareboundtopre-pandemictrajectoryappearelusive:theIMFforesees3.1%averageannualgrowthoverthenextfiveyears,theweakestmedium-termoutlookindecades.Moreover,initslatestWorldEconomicOutlook,theIMFpointsoutthatratesofconvergenceareslowingtoo,withthetimeneededtoclosehalfthegapinincomepercapitabetweenemerginganddevelopingeconomiesandadvancedeconomiesincreasingfrom80yearsin2008to130yearsinthelatestestimates.11

Whiletechnologicaladvancesmaygivenewimpetustoglobalproductivity,12policiesthatenhancegood-qualitygrowthareneededtoreviveglobalmomentumandbalancetheimpactacrosstheincomegroups.Whenaskedaboutgrowthstrategiesavailabletodevelopingeconomiesinthecurrentcontext,chiefeconomistshighlightedfiveinparticular:layingasoundinstitutionalframeworkforlong-termgrowth,improvingintegrationintoglobalvaluechains,tappingintogreentransitionopportunities,strengtheninginnovationcapacity,digitalinfrastructureandasoundinvestmentclimate,andinvestinginhumancapitalandbasicservices.

IEA,December2023.

S&PGlobal,November2023.

WorldEconomicForum,January2024.

IMF,October2023.

Pizzinellietal.,October2023.

9

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Tighteningcyclemaybenearingtheend

Atthestartof2024,globalinflationcontinuestoease,proppingexpectationsofmildebbingininterestratesthisyear.13Theglobalheadlineratesofinflationareprojectedto

reach4.8%,14asharpdeclinefrom5.9%in2023and9.2%in2022.Coreinflationisdeceleratingtoo,albeitataslowerpace,andisexpectedtoreach4.5%in2024.15Theeasingisreflectedinthelatestsurveyresults,withexpectationsforhighinflationbeingparedbackacrossallregions.

Figure3.Inflationexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforinflationinthefollowinggeographiesin2024?

Verylow

Low

Moderate

High

Veryhigh

Sub-SaharanAfrica

8

56

32

4

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

11

63

26

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

17

58

25

SouthAsia

4

15

63

19

CentralAsia

4

17

63

17

Europe

20

67

13

UnitedStates

3

20

63

13

EastAsiaandPacific

4

26

67

4

China

17

59

24

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

TheimprovementinexpectationsisparticularlymarkedforEuropeandtheUS(seeFigure3),withtheshareofrespondentsexpectinghighorveryhighinflationdecliningfrom,respectively,71%and47%inSeptembertoonly13%inthelatestsurvey.However,two-thirdsofchiefeconomistsstillexpectmoderateinflationinEuropeandtheUS.Chinaremainsanoutlierintheotherdirection,with76%ofrespondentsstillexpectingloworverylowinflation.

Elsewhereintheworld,theexpectationsfor

lowerinflationstrengthened,includingEast

AsiaandPacific(30%),CentralAsia(21%),

andSouthAsia(19%),withthemajority

expectingmoderateinflation.Despitea

significantimprovementintheoutlookand

broadlymoderateexpectations,morethan

aquarterofrespondentsstillexpecthigh

orveryhighinflationinSub-SaharanAfrica

(36%),LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(26%),MiddleEastandNorthAmerica(25%).

Smith,December2023.

IMF,October2023.

Ibid.

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ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Inthelatestsurveythemajorityofchiefeconomistsalsoexpectlabourmarkets(77%)tolooseninadvancedeconomies–ahighernumberthaninSeptember.

Figure4.Globalconditions

Theyalsoexpectfinancialconditions(70%)toloosenintheadvancedeconomies(seeFigure4).

Lookingattheyearahead,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Labourmarketconditionswilllooseninmostadvancedeconomies

Financialconditionswillhavestartedtolooseninmostadvancedeconomies

17

7

60

17

17

13

60

10

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Thesefactorsarereflectedintheevolvingmonetarypolicypatterns.AnotablymoredovishcommunicationoftheUSFederalReserveattheDecember2023meeting16signalledapossiblepivotinthetighteningcyclefollowingaprolongedpause.WhilemarketsarepricingasmanyassixinterestratecutsbytheFederalReserve17andtheEuropeanCentralBank18thisyear,thepolicystanceremainscautiousonbothsidesoftheAtlantic19aspolicy-makersnavigatechallengingdomesticandglobalconditions.Theunusuallyhighdegreeofuncertaintyovereconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsmeansthetimingandextentofeasingwillposeadilemmaforpolicy-makersthatcontinuetonavigatetrade-offsbetweentighteningtoomuchandtoolittle.

Accumulatedsocietalstrainsfromdomesticpricepressures,protractedslowdownin

economicactivityandfinancialstabilityconcernswillweighonpolicydecisionsin2024.Inthemeantime,highinterestratescontinuetestingtheresilienceofeconomies,withthenumberofcorporatedebtdefaultsrisingabovelong-termaveragesacrossbothadvancedandemergingeconomies20attheendof2023.TheWorldBankalsopointstorisingriskstosovereigndebtsustainability,withdebtservicingcostsinlow-incomeeconomiesprojectedtoriseby39%overthenexttwoyears.21

Itisalsoworthnotingthatinflationremainsvulnerabletoshocksincommoditymarketsandsupplychains.AprolongeddisruptionintheRedSea,22escalationofregionalconflicts,excessiveredundancyandrisingclimatevolatility23weighontheoutlook.Forexample,thearrivalofElNi?oalonecouldincreaseglobalfoodpricesbyupto9%.24

FederalReserve,December2023.

Clarfeltetal.,December2023.

McDougalletal.,December2023.

EuropeanCentralBank,December2023.

S&PGlobal,December2023a.

WorldBank,December2023.

Eavis,December2023.

Kuiketal.,December2023.

Adolfsenetal.,September2023.

11

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Geopoliticalriftscompounduncertainty

Fragmentationcloudstheoutlook fragmentation.Almostsevenoutoften(69%)

chiefeconomistsareexpectingthepaceof

Globaleconomicdevelopmentsare geoeconomicfragmentationtoaccelerate

beingprofoundlyshapedbydeepening thisyear(seeFigure5).

Figure5.Fragmentationoutlook

Lookingattheyearahead,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

Stronglydisagree

Disagree

Uncertain

Globallythepaceofgeoeconomic

10

fragmentationwillaccelerate

AgreeStronglyagree

21 52 17

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Geoeconomicallydrivenrestructuringoftheglobaleconomyhasbeenevidentforsometime.TherecentyearshavebeenmarkedbygreaterrivalryintheUS-Chinarelationship,partialsplinteringofinternationaltradeflows,25andasharptilttowardsprotectionistpolicies.26Atthestartof2024,variousalliancesandsimmeringglobalconflictsarebuoyingconcernsthatglobaleconomiccooperationisfaltering.Thegravityofthecurrentmomentumisnotlostonleaders,however,withmanywarningofhardeningcoldwarrhetoricandcostlyoutcomesoffragmentation.27

Whenaskedabouttheimplicationsofrecentdevelopments(seeFigure6),chiefeconomistscontinueassigningaprominentroletogeopoliticalfactorsacrossmacroeconomicandfinancialdevelopments.About87%expectrecentgeopoliticaldevelopmentstostokeglobaleconomicvolatilityinthenextthreeyears,andeightoutoftenexpectittoheightenvolatilityinstockmarkets.

WTO,September2023.

WTO,December2023.

Gopinath,December2023.

12

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Figure6.Theimpactofgeoeconomicfragmentation

Inlightofrecentgeopoliticaldevelopments,howlikelyisitthatthenextthreeyearswillleadtosignificant…

ExtremelyunlikelySomewhatunlikely

...volatilityintheglobaleconomy?

...increaseinlocalizationofeconomicactivityandinvestmentflows?

...stockmarketvolatility?

...increaseingeoeconomicblocsofeconomicactivityandinvestmentflows?

...increaseininequalityandgrowingNorth-Southdivergence?

...rupturesinmajorglobalsupplychains?

...increaseinglobalizationofeconomicactivityandinvestmentflows?

NeitherlikelynorunlikelySomewhatlikelyExtremelylikely

3

10

67

20

13

63

23

3

17

53

27

7

13

57

23

3

40

50

7

30

33

33

3

17

47

23

13

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Thereisstrongconsensusthatgeopoliticaldevelopmentswillcontinuetoimpacteconomicactivityandinvestmentflows,with86%expectinganincreaseinlocalizationand80%sayinggeoeconomicblocswillstrengthen.Ontheflipside,two-thirdsofrespondentssayanincreaseinglobalizationisunlikelyoverthenextthreeyears.This

isinlinewiththedevelopmentsinsupplychainstrategiesinrecentyears,markedbyanotableshiftinnarrativeandactiontoreshoring,nearshoring,friendshoring,and,morerecently,de-riskingstrategies.28Thepotentiallossinglobaleconomicoutputfromincreasedtraderestrictionscouldreachupto7%29accordingtotheIMF.Thesignsofretreatareemerging,withglobaltradedecliningby5%30in2023.Ontheother

hand,tradewithinalliedblocshasbeengainingmomentum,with6.2%31growthinthethirdquarterof2023.

Thecostsoffragmentationareprojectedtobesignificantlyhigherforlow-incomeeconomies,reachingupto4%ofglobaldomesticproduct(GDP),32andalmostdoublethatofadvancedeconomies.Althoughevenapartialretreatinglobalizationwillresultinsizeablecontractionforvariousblocs,anythird-partycountries’gains

arelargelyoffsetbytheheadwindsfromthecontractioninmajortradepartners.33Besidesthedirectimpactthroughtradechannels,aretreatincooperationrisksstalling,ifnotrollingback,decadesofprogresstowardsdevelopmenttargets.

TheEconomist,May2023.

Bolhuisetal.,March2023.

UNCTAD,December2023.

Ibid.

Bolhuisetal.,March2023.

Cerdeiroetal.,October2023.

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ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Lookingatthenextthreeyears,sixoutoftenchiefeconomistssaidgeopoliticaldevelopmentswillincreaseinequalityandwidenNorth-Southdivide.

Onenotablepointofdisagreementamongthechiefeconomistsisthelikelihoodthatgeopoliticaltensionswillresultinasignificant

ruptureofglobalsupplychainsinthenextthreeyears.Only36%ofrespondentsthinkpotentialdisruptionsarelikely,anotherthirdareuncertainandathirdbelievetheyareunlikely.Thisislikelytoreflectinparttheeffectivenessofrestructuringstrategiesandincreasedresilienceofsupplychainsinrecentyears.

Figure7.Industryoutlook

Whichsectorsandindustriesarelikelytobeatanadvantageordisadvantageinthegeoeconomicoutlookfor2024?

Sectorsandindustrieswithnegativeoutlook

Sectorsandindustrieswithpositiveoutlook

Informationtechnologyand

0

20

digitalcommunications

Mining(excludingfossil

3

11

fuels)

Medical,healthcareand

0

11

careservices

Low-carbonenergy

5

11

(includingrenewables)

Engineering,construction

8

9

andutilities

Agriculture,forestryand

4

9

fishing

Fossil-fuelenergyand

17

8

materials

14

Leisureandtravel

7

Supplychainandtransport

5

5

services

10

Manufacturing

5

Financial,professional,real

17

3

estateservices

Retailandwholesaleof

1

18

consumergoods

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Whenaskedaboutthesectoralimpactofthegeoeconomicoutlook,chiefeconomistshighlightedarangeofindustrieswheretheyexpectamorenegativeoutlookin2024,includingretail

andwholesaleofconsumergoods,fossil-fuelenergyandmaterials,financial,professionalandrealestateservices,leisureandtravel,andmanufacturing.

14

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Therespondentsaresignificantlymoreoptimisticabouttheimpactofrecentdevelopmentsontheoutlookforotherindustries,includinginformationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications,mining,medical,healthcareandcareservices,andlow-carbonenergy(seeFigure7).Technology,miningandlow-carbonenergy,inparticular,areexpectedtobenefitfromtheprojected11%34increaseintheglobaldemandforrenewableenergyandstrategiccompetitionbetweenthegeoeconomicblocsasnewindustrialpoliciesramp

upinvestmentsanddemandforcriticalmaterialsandcomponents.35

Thesurveyalsoaskedchiefeconomistswhatstrategiesbusinessesmightadoptinthefaceofrisinggeoeconomicfragmentationin2024.Threepatternsfeatureprominently.First,diversification,ratherthanisolation,remainsthesurestwaytoresilienceinthetimesofheightenedvolatility.Second,investmentsingradualde-riskingandlocalizationcouldunlocknewsupplychainopportunities.Lastly,searchfortalentandagilitywillbeatthecoreofstrategyplanningandexecution,withmanymultinationalshavingtojuggleandadjuststrategiesacrossthegeographies.

Governmentscontinue

toturninward

Themountingconcernsofdeeperglobalfragmentationarecloselyintertwinedwiththeresurgenceinindustrialpoliciesovertherecentyears.Technologicalcompetitionandtheracetosecuresupplychainsforcriticalmaterialsandothergoodsareblurringthelinesbetweeneconomicandnationalsecurityobjectives.Thisshifthasbeenassociatedwithaspikeinthenumberofprotectionistmeasures–suchasexportrestrictions–thatquadrupledtoalmost35,000overthelastdecade.36

AftermorethanayearsincethelaunchoftheInflationReductionAct(IRA)andCHIPSActsparkedaglobaluptickinsuchlarge-scaleinitiatives,tensofbillionsarebeingfunnelledintoinfrastructure,manufacturing,semiconductorsandlow-carbonsolutionsacrossgeographies.37The