山東農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易的影響因素及對(duì)策外文翻譯修改稿

畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)〔論文〕外文翻譯題目：影響中國(guó)的人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響：出口到日本的案例研究英文題目：TheEffectofChina'sRMBExchangeRateMovementonItsAgriculturalExport:ACaseStudyofExporttoJapan系別：專(zhuān)業(yè)：班級(jí)：學(xué)號(hào)：姓名：指導(dǎo)老師：填表日期：影響中國(guó)的人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響：出口到日本的案例研究LongjiangChen摘要本文試圖考察變化和波動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系來(lái)分析中國(guó)的人民幣匯率和其農(nóng)業(yè)出口。建立了一個(gè)模型來(lái)分析人民幣匯率影響農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口所面臨兩個(gè)運(yùn)動(dòng)約束包括中國(guó)特定的匯率制度和存在技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘的農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易。該模型說(shuō)明,民幣匯率的影響運(yùn)動(dòng)依賴匯率水平的比擬(升值或折舊)效應(yīng)和匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的效果。以中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口日本為例,實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)以中國(guó)對(duì)日本農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口為例，進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。一個(gè)模型〔1，1〕指定衡量匯率波動(dòng)和日常生活的回歸與結(jié)構(gòu)打破虛擬變量估計(jì)基于單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果與結(jié)構(gòu)。結(jié)果說(shuō)明人民幣兌日元升值將促進(jìn)出口增長(zhǎng)，與積極匯率波動(dòng)促進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口到日本而阻礙出口。然而，匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)出口影響遠(yuǎn)小于匯率水平，從而導(dǎo)致消極的凈出口政策對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行了討論。關(guān)鍵詞：匯率；農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口；中國(guó)前言改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)中國(guó)在2005年七月人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制，人民幣已波動(dòng)頻繁。在這方面，密切關(guān)注了對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)出口的影響。由于每個(gè)行業(yè)都有自己的特點(diǎn)，其匯率變動(dòng)可能對(duì)不同的行業(yè)有不同的影響。因此，克萊因〔1990〕指出，影響實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)出口貿(mào)易在商品的水平下必須進(jìn)一步調(diào)查，。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品有相對(duì)于制成品，和為較低的初始投資本錢(qián)，存在的長(zhǎng)期合同等這樣的行業(yè)性質(zhì)特殊。人們普遍成認(rèn)，影響匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的不同，對(duì)制造品貿(mào)易也不同。經(jīng)謝爾登和馬克克勞斯頓〔2002〕證實(shí)，相對(duì)于其他行業(yè)，實(shí)際匯率不確定性具有較顯著的負(fù)向影響農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的作用。至于中國(guó)，什么是影響人民幣升值和相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)volatility1其農(nóng)業(yè)出口？一個(gè)對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的研究具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。一方面，目前還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)明確的理論和實(shí)證結(jié)論對(duì)貿(mào)易影響匯率波動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)共同體。此外，大量的研究探討貿(mào)易影響匯率波動(dòng)在興旺國(guó)家，忽略了對(duì)它們?cè)谥袊?guó)這樣的開(kāi)展中國(guó)家的研究。開(kāi)展中國(guó)家與興旺國(guó)家不同的特點(diǎn)，如不同的匯率制度，缺乏完善的遠(yuǎn)期外匯市場(chǎng)，缺乏有效的金融衍生工具等，這都嚴(yán)重限制出口商的行為。在中國(guó)，有兩點(diǎn)重要的限制：第一，中國(guó)運(yùn)行特定的外匯管理體制；其次，中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口遇到了嚴(yán)重的技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘，衛(wèi)生和植物檢疫。這意味著貿(mào)易影響匯率變動(dòng)在開(kāi)展中國(guó)家不應(yīng)該被無(wú)視；另一方面，當(dāng)前人民幣升值會(huì)帶來(lái)一定的負(fù)面影響，中國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)和農(nóng)民的福利〔李崗，2006〕，而在中國(guó)大多數(shù)人口仍然是農(nóng)民。因此，探討影響人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口具有極其重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義?；谏鲜稣J(rèn)識(shí)，本文，以中國(guó)對(duì)日本農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口為例，試圖解釋人民幣匯率水平的變化和波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的影響。正文1.文獻(xiàn)回憶匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易影響的研究首先由舒〔1974〕展開(kāi)，交換率匯率波動(dòng)被定義為相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與意外的動(dòng)作的匯率〔麥肯齊，1999〕。根本參數(shù)作為一個(gè)重要的變量在經(jīng)濟(jì)分析美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)。在他開(kāi)創(chuàng)性的研究中，有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的定量評(píng)估的研究影響名義和實(shí)際匯率對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的案例。不同的實(shí)證方法和匯率變量中都使用了這些研究，因此達(dá)成共識(shí)：匯率波動(dòng)大大阻礙了農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易流動(dòng)，相比其他貿(mào)易，這種負(fù)面效應(yīng)更明顯。一些實(shí)證研究比擬了不同的匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)包括在農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)和其他部門(mén)的影響。這些研究得出了類(lèi)似的結(jié)論，即：總的來(lái)說(shuō)，匯率的變化對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易不利影響顯著。經(jīng)Gervais,Larue&奧利弗(2004),馬修,特里和Agapi(2006)調(diào)查，匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響在部門(mén)和產(chǎn)品級(jí)兩方面。Susanti〔2001〕研究了印度尼西亞的總出口額和五個(gè)主要農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口顯示，他們對(duì)印度尼西亞匯率變動(dòng)均有顯著的不利影響。從早期的調(diào)查，羅伯特和李察〔1981〕對(duì)美國(guó)的小麥，棉花和大豆最近的調(diào)查，及辜〔2006〕和李與李〔2005〕對(duì)大豆的調(diào)查，研究人員調(diào)查了一些國(guó)家對(duì)其主要農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易流對(duì)匯率變動(dòng)的影響，包括大麥，小麥，豬肉，棉花，咖啡，可可，生豬，玉米等。這些研究都支持農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的分類(lèi)對(duì)匯率變動(dòng)有負(fù)面影響這一結(jié)論。然而，一些研究〔如安達(dá)加西亞，1989；abdulkudos，2003〕說(shuō)明，在一定的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品分類(lèi)下，匯率變動(dòng)各不相同的國(guó)家影響不同。在一個(gè)時(shí)代的浮動(dòng)匯率制度下，在這樣一個(gè)時(shí)代的浮動(dòng)匯率制度,有截然不同的觀點(diǎn)在理論上如果波動(dòng)性匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)阻礙國(guó)際貿(mào)易:一些模型的負(fù)面假設(shè)找到支持而其他模型導(dǎo)出了支持積極的假說(shuō)。實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果都是集中在交易所波動(dòng)率均不讓人困惑,但他們大多支持陰性效果。謝爾登(2003),Gervais,Larue和奧利弗說(shuō)明,(2004)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等匯率波動(dòng)明顯減少農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易流程。然而,金,想和辜(2003)顯示的影響是否匯率波動(dòng)是積極的還是消極的相關(guān)測(cè)量的影響波動(dòng)和第三世界國(guó)家。許多中國(guó)學(xué)者已經(jīng)在調(diào)查的影響人民幣匯率變化對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易集中在兩個(gè)方面。一個(gè)是估計(jì)J-curve效果和匯率彈性的進(jìn)口和出口的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品,包括Cai的早期研究(1994),顧,李和闡釋(1994)和最近的研究的歌》(2005)和朱田和小王(2006)。另一個(gè)是模擬人民幣升值的影響對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口和出口在宏觀模型,重點(diǎn)在不同的環(huán)境影響。盡管上述的研究取得了較大的成功,依然存在一些應(yīng)注意的問(wèn)題。第一、理論模型的根底上對(duì)興旺國(guó)家的假設(shè)并不一定適合開(kāi)展中國(guó)家,因此需要在開(kāi)展這些模型假設(shè)的根底上,開(kāi)展中國(guó)家;第二,要注意可能產(chǎn)生過(guò)程中數(shù)據(jù)的結(jié)構(gòu)打破，為了防止“偽協(xié)整〞;第三在未來(lái)的研究,開(kāi)展中國(guó)家應(yīng)受到更多的關(guān)注。開(kāi)展中國(guó)家與興旺國(guó)家之間的匯率制度仍有一個(gè)大的差異,在開(kāi)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)展農(nóng)業(yè)出口扮演了重要的角色。2.模型本節(jié)將建立一個(gè)模型的根底上。雙方交換的影響水平變化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和匯率波動(dòng)將納入模型。3．壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模型下面是我們目前的根本壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模型的出口公司。讓中國(guó)的出口國(guó)和進(jìn)口國(guó)的外國(guó)國(guó)家。一個(gè)代表家庭性的外國(guó)國(guó)家消費(fèi)差異產(chǎn)品，安裝在單位區(qū)間[0，1]。在貨物，貨物將被編入索引的他們用自回歸殘差，移動(dòng)平均標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差，拱實(shí)證測(cè)度波動(dòng)的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并估計(jì)方程和無(wú)第三個(gè)國(guó)家的影響。中國(guó)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品，在0zn的產(chǎn)品與國(guó)外產(chǎn)品z*1，其中nz*1。假設(shè)國(guó)內(nèi)外商品市場(chǎng)細(xì)分。壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的公司有能力進(jìn)行價(jià)格歧視的國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格，不同于國(guó)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格為出口?；谪惔呐c德弗羅〔2000〕的市場(chǎng)定價(jià)模型，我們認(rèn)為，出口公司出售的單位小時(shí)產(chǎn)量在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和出口的到外國(guó)。4.實(shí)證估計(jì)4.1實(shí)證標(biāo)準(zhǔn)捕捉動(dòng)態(tài)，以下方和萊〔2001〕，實(shí)證框架1這一結(jié)論是特別相關(guān)的模型假設(shè)：兩個(gè)出口都好進(jìn)口原材料的價(jià)格外幣。指定為一個(gè)自回歸分布滯后〔日常生活〕進(jìn)程結(jié)合模型〔1,1〕模型用于測(cè)量匯率波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！?.19〕方程〔3.17〕–〔3.19〕構(gòu)成的兩步估計(jì)所產(chǎn)生的〔3.18〕–〔3.19〕，然后使用〔3.17〕估計(jì)其出口的影響。方與Miller〔2004〕指出，統(tǒng)計(jì)意義與符號(hào)的估計(jì)和系數(shù)方程〔3.17〕提供了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的和直接的試驗(yàn)研究之間關(guān)系的實(shí)際出口增長(zhǎng)和匯率貶值及其波動(dòng)。如果，那么匯率貶值改善出口。如果，交換波動(dòng)降低出口，通過(guò)出口的反響，知覺(jué)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而它刺激出口。方程也說(shuō)明，凈效果依賴于比擬匯率水平變化的影響，匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。4.2數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源和加工本文采用雙邊農(nóng)產(chǎn)品從中國(guó)出口到日本的一個(gè)月從一月2002至四月2007。經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口一月2002月收入與基地等于名義出口收益的美元放氣的消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)〔消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)〕和美國(guó)的出口價(jià)格指數(shù)。消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)從國(guó)際金融和貿(mào)易方向的國(guó)際貨幣基金組織，名義收入和出口價(jià)格指數(shù)月度統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)告對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口。每月平均雙邊名義匯率，定義為人民幣價(jià)格日本的日?qǐng)A，計(jì)算的根底上的雙邊名義匯率人民幣兌美元和日元兌美元。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自衛(wèi)星的美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部。匯率波動(dòng)計(jì)算模型〔1,1〕模型。國(guó)外價(jià)格水平為日本的消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)從省統(tǒng)計(jì)局日本的國(guó)際事務(wù)和通信。我們還計(jì)算采購(gòu)價(jià)格指數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品2002月一月基地從中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)和取代它的國(guó)內(nèi)投入價(jià)格指數(shù)。價(jià)格指數(shù)是取代進(jìn)口投入世界農(nóng)業(yè)原材料從國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的條件。人數(shù)限制在頻率的措施是采用量化的技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘/衛(wèi)生和植物檢疫措施，數(shù)量的根底上并通知世貿(mào)組織農(nóng)業(yè)貿(mào)易的日本。4.3單位根檢驗(yàn)和參數(shù)估計(jì)非平穩(wěn)和單位根檢驗(yàn)進(jìn)行，防止虛假回歸。本試驗(yàn)遵循步驟：第一，所有的數(shù)據(jù)變量進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)無(wú)結(jié)構(gòu)變化；其次，那些非平穩(wěn)變量檢驗(yàn)中得到進(jìn)一步測(cè)試采用單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)構(gòu)突變?cè)斐傻呐妪垺?989〕。單位根檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果說(shuō)明，所有的變量都是固定的，名義上的匯率，股價(jià)指數(shù)為國(guó)內(nèi)投入價(jià)格指數(shù)為進(jìn)口輸入變量break1固定結(jié)構(gòu)。因此，我們介紹結(jié)構(gòu)斷裂虛擬的回歸方程。在這些打破傻瓜，并分別截距和斜率假人名義匯率，并分別攔截虛擬的價(jià)格指數(shù)國(guó)內(nèi)投入和投入。4.4調(diào)查結(jié)果和進(jìn)一步的討論結(jié)果說(shuō)明，雙邊名義匯率及其波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是重要的影響因素，中國(guó)對(duì)日本的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口。一般，匯率具有預(yù)期的積極效果，這意味著人民幣對(duì)日元貶值會(huì)增加農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口，而升值降低出口。名義匯率水平的意義5滯后說(shuō)明匯率變動(dòng)的影響持續(xù)相對(duì)長(zhǎng)一段長(zhǎng)達(dá)五個(gè)月。這個(gè)坐標(biāo)的特點(diǎn)，生產(chǎn)周期長(zhǎng)，長(zhǎng)期提供大多數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。匯率波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，一般來(lái)說(shuō)，具有顯著的正向影響農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口，說(shuō)明匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將增加出口而負(fù)減少出口通常預(yù)期。匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變量與3個(gè)滯后和5滯后明顯地表現(xiàn)出積極的跡象，而變量6個(gè)滯后顯示顯著消極的跡象，這意味著，一方面，農(nóng)業(yè)出口商可能是危險(xiǎn)的首選和增加出口的面對(duì)增加匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；另一方面，作為德格洛瓦〔1988〕指出，高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡的出口商，擔(dān)憂急劇下降的出口收入，可增加出口時(shí)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加的匯率，其他低程度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡的出口商，然而，因?yàn)檩^低的出口收入減少出口的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加相關(guān)。此外，上述結(jié)果說(shuō)明，匯率水平的變化使快速和持久的影響的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口到日本，尤其是強(qiáng)烈的影響在短期內(nèi)，而匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)似乎有一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的影響在一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間不是一個(gè)短期。因此，在短期內(nèi)，匯率的影響運(yùn)動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口是完全確定的匯率變動(dòng)水平，但在一個(gè)相對(duì)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期，共同的變化對(duì)匯率水平與波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。凈影響匯率對(duì)出口依賴農(nóng)業(yè)的比擬的影響，匯率水平的變化及其波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。結(jié)論本文初步探討關(guān)系變化和波動(dòng)(風(fēng)險(xiǎn))的中國(guó)人民幣匯率和其農(nóng)業(yè)出口。實(shí)證結(jié)果說(shuō)明,人民幣升值的匯率形成機(jī)制改革后,2005年7月,具有顯著的負(fù)面影響,對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口而匯率波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),總的來(lái)說(shuō),具有顯著的正面影響。然而,匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)效果來(lái)說(shuō)要小得多的匯率水平變化,匯率波動(dòng)的影響最終都有一種占主導(dǎo)地位的后者,這意味著人民幣升值仍然是一個(gè)主要的因素在決定中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)出口到日本。因此,人民幣匯率的負(fù)面影響運(yùn)動(dòng)在中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)出口不應(yīng)被低估。這很重要,政府調(diào)整其政策。由于匯率政策調(diào)整困難,政府開(kāi)始從農(nóng)業(yè)政策調(diào)整以減少或緩解匯率波動(dòng)的負(fù)面效應(yīng)。根據(jù)主導(dǎo)的負(fù)面效應(yīng)的人民幣升值壓力,政策調(diào)整,在短期內(nèi)是進(jìn)一步提高農(nóng)業(yè)出口的支持系統(tǒng),降低單位本錢(qián)的農(nóng)業(yè)出口。而長(zhǎng)期的政策調(diào)整在于提高效勞質(zhì)量、改善農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)進(jìn)步,這將提高價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力質(zhì)量競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。此外,特別注意到匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。雖然本文發(fā)現(xiàn)名義匯率波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生積極影響中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口到日本,這種可能性,大多數(shù)中小制造商,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低出口令人厭惡的面對(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加匯率,也不能除外,因?yàn)榭傮w數(shù)據(jù)的使用。因此,政府也不能無(wú)視外匯市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定。與此同時(shí),提供政策指導(dǎo)和金融工具的外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)令人厭惡的同樣重要的是要減少出口商匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和保持穩(wěn)定農(nóng)業(yè)出口增長(zhǎng)。TheEffectofChina'sRMBExchangeRateMovementonItsAgriculturalExport:ACaseStudyofExporttoJapanLongjiangChenSchoolofEconomicsandManagement,ZhongkaiUniversityofAgricultureandEngineering,Guangzhou,ChinaAbstractThispaperattemptstoexaminetherelationshipbetweenchangesandvolatilityofChina'sRMBexchangeratesanditsagriculturalexport.AmodelisconstructedtoanalyzetheeffectofRMBexchangeratemovementsonagriculturalexportsfacingtwoconstraintsincludingChina'sparticularexchangeratesystemandTBT/SPSinagriculturaltrade.ThemodelrevealsthatthenettradeeffectofRMBexchangeratemovementsreliesonthecomparisonofexchangeratelevelchange(appreciationordepreciation)effectandexchangerateriskeffect.TakingChina’sagriculturalexportstoJapanasacase,thispapermakesanempiricalexamination.AGARCH(1,1)modelisspecifiedtomeasuretheexchangeratevolatilityandADLregressionwithstructuralbreakdummyvariablesisestimatedbasedontheresultsofunitroottestwithstructuralbreak.TheresultsshowRMBdepreciationagainstyenwillpromoteexportgrowthwhileappreciationhinderexport,andexchangeratevolatilitypositivelystimulatesagriculturalexportstoJapan.However,theeffectofexchangeratevolatilityontheexportismuchsmallerthanthatofexchangeratelevel,whichleadstoanegativeneteffecttotheexport.Thepolicyimplicationsamongtheempiricalresultsarealsodiscussed.Keywords:Exchangerate;Agriculturalexport;ChinaIntroductionSincethereformofChineseRMBexchangerateformationmechanisminJuly2005,ChineseRMBhasbeeninfrequentfluctuationsandappreciatinggradually.Inthiscontext,closeattentionhasbeenpaidtotheimpactoftheRMBexchangeratefluctuationsonChina'sexport.Sinceeachindustryhasitsowncharacteristics,theexchangeratemovementsmayhavedifferenteffectsondifferentindustries.Therefore,asKlein(1990)pointedout,theimpactofrealexchangeratefluctuationsonexporttrademustbefurtherinvestigatedinthecommoditylevel.Ingeneral,comparedtomanufacturedgoods,agriculturalproductshavesuchspecialindustrynatureaslowerinitialcostofinvestment,theexistenceoflong-termcontractsetc..Itisgenerallyacknowledgedthattheimpactofexchangeratemovementsonagriculturaltradeisdifferentfromthatonmanufacturedgoodstrade.Gue,Sheldon&McCorriston(2002)hasconfirmed,comparedtootherindustries,therealexchangerateuncertaintyhasamoresignificantnegativeeffectonagriculturaltrade.ThenasforChina,whatistheeffectofRMBappreciationandassociatedrisksofvolatility1onitsagriculturalexport?Astudyonthisissuehasimportantacademicandpracticalsignificance.Ononehand,therearestillnoclear-cuttheoreticalandempiricalconclusionsontradeeffectsofexchangeratefluctuationsamongtheeconomiccommunity.Moreover,thevastmajoritystudieshaveprobedthetradeeffectsofexchangeratefluctuationsindevelopedcountriesandhaveneglectedthestudyonthoseindevelopingcountrieslikeChina.Developingcountrieshavethecharacteristicsdifferentfromthedevelopedcountries,suchasthedifferentexchangeratesystem,lackofasoundforeignexchangeforwardmarket,lackofeffectivefinancialderivatives,etc.,whichwillimposeimportantconstraintsonthebehaviorsofexporters.AsforChina,therearetwoimportantconstraints:First,Chinarunsparticularforeignexchangemanagementsystem;Second,China'sagriculturalexportshaveencounteredseriousTBTandSPS.Thismeansthetradeeffectsofexchangeratemovementsindevelopingcountriesshouldnotbeoverlooked;Ontheotherhand,thecurrentappreciationofRMBwillbringcertainnegativeimpactonChina'sagriculturaleconomyandthewelfareoffarmers(Kong&Li,2006),whilefarmersarestillthemajorityofthepopulationinChina.Therefore,probingtheeffectofRMBexchangeratechangesontheagriculturalexporthasanextremelyimportantpracticalsignificance.Basedontheaboveunderstanding,thispaper,takingChina’sagriculturalexportstoJapanasancase,attemptstoexplaintheimpactofRMBexchangeratelevelchangesandvolatilityonChina'sagriculturalexports.1BriefliteraturereviewThestudyontheimpactofexchangeratechangesonagriculturaltradeislaunchedfirstbySchuh(1974),whichmadethefundamentalargumentthattheexchangeratewasExchangeratevolatilitymaybedefinedastheriskassociatedwithunexpectedmovementsintheexchangerate(McKenzie,1999).anomittedsignificantvariableineconomicanalysisoftheU.S.farmsector.Afterhispioneeringresearch,aconsiderableamountofresearchesevaluatedquantitativelytheimpactofnominalandrealexchangerateonagriculturaltrade.Differentempiricalmethodsandexchangeratevariableswereusedinthesestudies,butleadingtotheconsensus:exchangeratefluctuationshavesignificantlyimpededagriculturaltradeflows,andcomparedtoothersectors,suchnegativeeffectismorenoticeable.Someempiricalliteraturescomparedthedifferenteffectsofexchangeratechangesonagriculturalsectorandothersectors.Thesestudiesreachedsimilarconclusions,namely:Overall,theexchangeratechangessignificantlynegativelyaffectedagriculturaltrade.Susanti(2001)andMathew,Terry&Agapi(2006)investigatedtheeffectsofexchangeratechangesonagriculturaltradeatbothsectorandproductlevel.Susanti(2001)examinedIndonesia’stotalexportsofagriculturalproductsandfiveproductsexportandrevealedthatallofthemweresignificantlynegativelyaffectedbyIndonesia'sexchangeratemovements.FromtheearlyinvestigationofRobert&Richard(1981)onAmericanwheat,cottonandsoybeantorecentinvestigationofJose,Kranti&Koo(2006)andLi&Li(2005)onsoybean,theresearchersinvestigatedtheimpactsofexchangeratemovementsofanumberofcountriesontheirmajoragriculturaltradeflowsincludingbarley,wheat,pork,cotton,coffee,cocoa,livingpig,cornetc..Thesestudieshavegenerallysupportedtheconclusionofthenegativeimpactsofexchangeratemovementsondisaggregatedagriculturaltrade.However,somestudies(suchasAnderson&Garcia，1989；Abdulkudos,2003)indicatedthat,foracertainagriculturalproduct,theimpactsofexchangeratemovementsvaryacrosscountries,andforacertaincountry,theimpactsvaryacrossagriculturalproductsaswell.Inaneraoffloatingexchangeratesystem,thereareconflictingargumentsintheoryonifthevolatilityriskofexchangerateimpedesinternationaltrade:somemodelsfindsupportforthenegativehypothesisyetothermodelshavebeenderivedtosupportthepositivehypothesis.Theresultsofempiricalstudieswhichhavefocusedontheexchangevolatilityarenolessconfusingbutmostofthemsupportthenegativeeffects.Sheldon(2003),Gervais,Larue&Olivier(2004)etc.indicatedthattheriskofexchangeratevolatilitysignificantlyreducedagriculturaltradeflow.However,Jin,Gue&Koo(2003)showedthatwhethertheeffectofexchangeratevolatilityispositiveornegativeisrelatedtothemeasurementofvolatilityandtheeffectofthirdcountryaswell.AnumberofChineseresearchershavemadeinvestigationsontheinfluencesofRMBexchangeratechangesonChina'sagriculturaltradewithfocusintwoareas.OneistoestimateJ-curveeffectandtheexchangerateelasticityofimportandexportofagriculture-relatedproducts,includingearlystudiesofCai(1994),Gu,Li&Zhong(1994)andrecentstudiesofSong(2005)andZhu,Tian&Wang(2006).TheotheristosimulatetheimpactofRMBappreciationonChina'sagriculturalimportsandexportswithinmacromodels,focusingtheinfluencesindifferentcontextsofappreciation.Althoughtheabovestudieshaveachievedconsiderablesuccess,thereisstillsomethingthatshouldbenoticed.First,thetheoreticalmodelsbasedontheassumptionsofdevelopedcountriesdoesnotnecessarilyfitthecircumstancesofdevelopingcountriesthereforethesemodelsneedtobedevelopedbasedonassumptionsofdevelopingcountries;Second,closeattentionshouldbepaidtopossiblestructuralbreakindatageneratingprocess(DGP)inordertopreventfrom"spuriouscointegration";Third,developingcountriesshouldreceivemoreconcerninfuturestudies.Thereisstillabigdifferenceoftheexchangeratesystembetweenthedevelopingcountriesanddevelopedcountries,andagriculturalexportshaveplayedamoreimportantroleondevelopingcountries’economicdevelopment.2ModelThissectionwillconstructamodelonthebasisofKawai(1981),Fabiosa(2002),Barkoulas&Baumetal(2002),Dekle&Jeong(2006).Theimpactsofbothexchangeratelevelchangesandtheriskofexchangeratevolatilitywillbeincorporatedintothemodel.3.MonopolisticcompetitionmodelBelowwepresentthebasicmonopolisticcompetitionmodeloftheexportingfirm.LetChinabetheexportcountryandtheforeigncountrybetheimportcountry.Arepresentativehouseholdoftheforeigncountryconsumesdifferentiatedgoodsthatarearrangedontheunitinterval,[0,1].Amongthegoods,goodszwillbeindexedfor1Theyusedtheautoregressiveresiduals,movingaverageofthestandarddeviation,ARCH,GARCHtomeasurevolatilityrisksofexchangerate,andestimatedequationswithandwithoutathirdcountryeffect.China’sagriculturalproduct,where0zn,andgoodsz*1forforeignproduct,wherenz*1.Assumingthatdomesticandforeigngoodsmarketsaresegmented.Themonopolisticallycompetitivefirmhastheabilitytoengageinpricediscriminationbysettingadomesticpricefordomesticsalesthatdiffersfromthepriceitsetsforexports.Basedonthepricing-to-marketmodelofBetts&Devereux(2000),weassumethattheexportingfirmsellshztunitsofoutputinthehomemarketandexports4Empiricalestimation4.1EmpiricalspecificationTocapturethedynamics,followingFang&Lai(2001),theempiricalframeworkis1Thisconclusionisspeciallyrelatedtothemodelassumptions:boththeexportedgoodandimportedrawmaterialsarepricedinforeigncurrency.specifiedasanautoregressivedistributedlag(ADL)processcombinedwithaGARCH(1,1)modelusedforthemeasurementofexchangeratevolatilityrisks.(3.19)Equations(3.17)–(3.19)constitutetwo-stepestimationwithgeneratedby(3.18)–(3.19)andthenusedin(3.17)toestimateitseffectonexport.AsFang&Miller(2004)pointedout,thestatisticalsignificanceandsignoftheestimatedandcoefficientsinequation(3.17)provideasimpleandstraightforwardtestoftherelationshipbetweenrealexportgrowthandexchangeratedepreciationanditsvolatility.If,thenexchangeratedepreciationimprovesexports.If,exchangeratevolatilityreducesexportsthroughexporters’responsestoperceivedrisk,whileitstimulatesexports.Theequationalsoshowsthattheneteffectsreliesonthecomparisonofexchangeratelevelchangeeffectandexchangerateriskeffect..4.2DatasourcesandprocessingThispaperemploysbilateralagriculturalexportsfromChinatoJapanonamonthlybasisfromJanuary2002toApril2007.SeasonallyadjustedrealagriculturalexportrevenuewithbasemonthJanuary2002equalsnominalexportrevenueinU.S.dollardeflatedbytheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)oftheU.S.andtheexportpriceindex.CPIcomesfromtheInternationalFinancialStatisticsandDirectionofTradeoftheIMF,nominalexportrevenueandtheexportpriceindexfromtheMonthlyStatisticalReportonChina’sAgriculturalImportandExport.Themonthlyaverageofbilateralnominalexchangerate,definedastheRMBpriceoftheJapanyen,iscalculatedbasedonthebilateralnominalexchangerateofRMBagainsttheU.S.dollarandtheJapanyenagainsttheU.S.dollar.ThedatacomefromERSoftheUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture.TheexchangeratevolatilityiscalculatedbyGARCH(1,1)model.ForeignpricelevelequalstheCPIofJapanfromtheStatisticsBureauoftheMinistryofInternationalAffairsandCommunicationsofJapan.ForeigndemandequalsJapanmonthlyindustrialproductionindexfromtheEuroStats.WealsocalculatethepurchasingpriceindexofagriculturalmaterialproductswithbasemonthJanuary2002fromChina'sEconomicStatisticsBulletinandsubstituteitforthepriceindexofdomesticinputs.ThepriceindexforimportedinputsissubstitutedbytheworldagriculturalrawmaterialsindexfromIFSoftheIMF.ThenumberofrestrictionsinfrequencymeasuresisemployedforquantifyingtheTBT/SPS,onthebasisofthenumberofSPSandTBTinagriculturaltradenotifiedtotheWTObyJapan.4.3UnitroottestandparameterEstimationNon-stationaryandunitroottestsareconductedtoavoidspuriousregression.Thetestsfollowtwosteps:First,allthedataofvariablesaretestedusingADFtestwithoutstructuralchanges;Second,thosenon-stationaryvariablesinADFtestwillbefurthertestedemployingunitroottestwithstructuralbreakcontributedbyPerron(1989).Theresultsofunitroottestindicatethatallthevariablesarestationaryexceptthatnominalexchangerate,thepriceindexfordomesticinputsandthepriceindexforimportedinputsarestationaryvariableswithstructuralbreak1.Therefore,weintroducethestructuralbreakdummyintotheregressionequation.4.4FindingsandfurtherdiscussionTheresultsshowthatboththebilateralnominalexchangerateanditsvolatilityriskareimportantfactorsaffectingChina’sagriculturalexporttoJapan.Ingeneral,exchangerateexhibitstheexpectedpositiveeffect,whichmeansthatthedepreciationofRMBagainstYenwillincreasetheexportofagriculturalproductswhiletheappreciationwillreducetheexport.Thesignificanceofnominalexchangeratelevelwith5lagsindicatestheimpactofexchangeratechangeslastsrelativelongperiodofuptofivemonths.Thiscoordinateswiththefeaturesofalongproductioncycleandalongperiodofdeliveryofthemajorityagriculturalproducts.Exchangeratevolatilityrisk,ingeneral,possessesasignificantlypositiveimpactonagriculturalexports,indicatingthatexchangerateriskwillincreasetheexportsinsteadofnegativelydecreasingtheexportasusuallyexpected.Exchangerateriskvariableswith3lagsand5lagsexhibitsignificantlypositivesignswhilethevariablewith6lagsshowssignificantlynegativesign,whichimplyingthat,ononehand,agriculturalexportersmightberiskpreferredandincreaseexportswhenfacingtheincreasedexchangeraterisk;Ontheotherhand,asDeGrauwe(1988)pointedoutthathighdegreeofriskaversiveexporters,fearingthedrasticdeclineofexportearnings,mayincreaseexportswhenfacingincreasedriskoftheexchangerate,otherlowdegreeofriskaversiveexporters,however,reduceexportsbecauseoflowerexportsearningsassociatedwithincreasedrisk.Inaddition,theaboveresultsimplythattheexchangeratelevelchangesmakearapidandlastingeffectonagriculturalexportstoJapan,especiallyastrongimpactinashortterm,whiletheexchangerateriskappearstohaveastrongeffectinalongerperiodinsteadofashortterm.Therefore,inashortterm,theeffectofexchangeratemovementsonagriculturalexportiscompletelydeterminedbythechangesofexchangeratelevel,butinarelativelylongerperiod,jointlybythechangesofbothexchangeratelevelanditsvolatilityrisk.Theneteffectsofexchangera