商業(yè)貿(mào)易行業(yè)跟蹤報(bào)告：零售社服板塊四季報(bào)前瞻

零售社服板塊四季報(bào)前瞻四季度收官，消費(fèi)仍在漸進(jìn)復(fù)蘇過程中，建議重視龍頭公司業(yè)績韌性。以下我們是對重點(diǎn)公司的四季報(bào)前瞻：1、零售板塊（1）黃金珠寶：短期看，黃金珠寶板塊修復(fù)兼具高度&彈性，長期受益于供給出清。老鳳祥：預(yù)計(jì)四季度收入增5%-25%，歸母凈利潤增2%-16%。周大生：預(yù)計(jì)四季度收入增9%-50%，歸母凈利潤增56%-87%。潮宏基：預(yù)計(jì)四季度收入增14%-24%，歸母凈利潤0.6-0.9億元。中國黃金：預(yù)計(jì)四季度收入增30%-40%，歸母凈利潤增59%-85%。（2）百貨：零售國企多數(shù)在區(qū)域內(nèi)規(guī)模優(yōu)勢顯著，我們認(rèn)為有望通過股權(quán)激勵、引入職業(yè)經(jīng)理人、資產(chǎn)重組等改革舉措激發(fā)活力。重慶百貨：我們預(yù)計(jì)，四季度收入增5%-15%，歸母凈利潤1.5-2.2億元。天虹股份：我們預(yù)計(jì)，四季度收入增0%-5%，歸母凈利潤-0.5億-0.5億元。（3）超市：家家悅：我們預(yù)計(jì)，四季度收入增3%-8%，歸母凈利潤增100%-167%。紅旗連鎖：我們預(yù)計(jì)，四季度收入增0%-5%，歸母凈利潤增0%-10%。永輝超市：我們預(yù)計(jì)，四季度收入降5%-0%，歸母凈利潤-8億至1億元。（4）安克創(chuàng)新：我們認(rèn)為，跨境板塊整體有望延續(xù)上半年景氣，預(yù)計(jì)四季度收入增20%-30%，歸母凈利潤增30%-40%。2、社服板塊（1）人服：科銳國際：我們預(yù)計(jì)，4Q收入增2-28%，歸母凈利潤0.4-0.6億元。天目湖：我們預(yù)計(jì)，4Q收入增15-46%，歸母凈利潤0.3-0.4億元。中青旅：我們預(yù)計(jì)，4Q收入增52-87%，歸母凈利潤1.0-1.1億元。（3）餐飲：百勝中國：4Q為銷售淡季，預(yù)計(jì)4Q收入增10-15%，歸母凈利潤0.77-0.82億元；廣州酒家：我們認(rèn)為4Q速凍產(chǎn)品銷售有望提振，同時，考慮到23年中秋時點(diǎn)靠后，部分收入可能延后至4Q確認(rèn)，我們預(yù)計(jì)，4Q收入增20-30%，歸母凈利潤0.9-1.0億元?！就顿Y建議】看好性價比消費(fèi)，關(guān)注出海與龍頭提效機(jī)會。（1）主線一：性價比。重點(diǎn)關(guān)注重慶百貨、老鳳祥、巨子生物、家家悅，關(guān)注周大生、菜百股份、福瑞達(dá)、珀萊雅、百勝中國、海底撈，以及低價自然景區(qū)標(biāo)的。（2）主線二：出海。重點(diǎn)關(guān)注小商品城、安克創(chuàng)新，關(guān)注名創(chuàng)優(yōu)品、泡泡瑪特、米奧會展、華凱易佰、特海國際。（3）主線三：預(yù)期改善下的龍頭提效機(jī)會。重點(diǎn)關(guān)注中公教育、中國中免、北京人力、科銳國際、宋城演藝，關(guān)注愛美客、錦江酒店、華住集團(tuán)、首旅酒店、傳智教育、王府井。行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期；新業(yè)態(tài)分流；行業(yè)競爭加??；監(jiān)管政策的不確定性。2行業(yè)研究·商業(yè)貿(mào)易行業(yè)2表1批零社服行業(yè)重點(diǎn)公司2023年%%%%5295050573805023行業(yè)研究·商業(yè)貿(mào)易行業(yè)3APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentHighlights:Q4seesconsumerrecovery;focusonleadingcompanies’resilience.Previewofkeycompanies’Q4reports:?.Retailsector(1)Jewelry:Short-termrecoverywithelasticity;long-termbenefitsfromsupplyclearance.LaoFengXiang:Q4revenueup5%-25%,NPAtSup2%-16%.ChowTaiSengJewellery:Q4revenueup9%-50%,NPAtSup56%-87%.GuangdongChjIndustry:Q4revenueup14%-24%,NPAtSRMB60-90million.ChinaNationalGoldGroup:Q4revenueup30%-40%,NPAtSup59%-85%.(2)Departmentstores:State-ownedenterpriseswithregionalscaleadvantages.ChongqingDepartmentStore:Q4revenueup5%-15%,NPAtSRMB150-220million.RainbowDepartmentStore:Q4revenueup0%-5%,NPAtSRMB-50millionto50million.(3)Supermarkets:JiajiayueGroup:Q4revenueup3%-8%,NPAtSup100%-167%.ChengduHongqiChain:Q4revenueup0%-5%,NPAtSup0%-10%.YonghuiSuperstores:Q4revenuedown5%-0%,NPAtSRMB-800millionto100million.(4)AnkerInnovationsTechnology:Cross-bordersectorexpectedtocontinuegrowth;Q4revenueup20%-30%,NPAtSup30%-40%.?.Servicesector(1)HRservices:CareerInternational:Q4revenueup2%-28%,NPAtSRMB40-60million.(2)Attractions:SongchengPerformanceDevelopment:Q4revenueRMB580-720million,NPAtSRMB100-150million.JiangsuTianmuLakeTourism:Q4revenueup15%-46%,NPAtSRMB30-40million.CHINACYTSTOURSHOLDING:Q4revenueup52%-87%,NPAtSRMB100-110million.(3)Catering:YumChinaHoldings:AssumingQ4salesrecoverto86%of2019,revenueup10%-15%,NPAtSRMB77-82million;GuangzhouRestaurant:Q4frozenproductsalesboostexpected,revenueup20%-30%,NPAtSRMB90-100million.Investmentadvice:Favorcost-effectiveconsumption,focusonoverseasexpansionandefficiencygainsinleaders.Mainthemes:(1)Valueformoney.(2)Overseasexpansion.(3)Efficiencygainsinleadersunderimprovedexpectations.RiskWarning:Recoveryweakerthanexpected;newbusinessmodelsdivertingcustomers;increasedcompetition;regulatoryuncertainty.12下下 3 45