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Theysaythatpridecomesbeforeafall.InthecaseofbothNapoleonandHitler,themanyvictoriestheyenjoyedledthemtobelievethatanythingwaspossible,thatnothingcouldstandintheirway.Russia'sicydefenderwastoprovethemwrong.人道是驕兵必敗。就拿拿破侖和希特勒兩人來說吧,他們所向披靡,便以為自己戰(zhàn)無不勝,不可阻擋。但俄羅斯的冰雪衛(wèi)士證明他們錯了。TheIcyDefender冰雪衛(wèi)士NilaB.Smith奈拉·B·史密斯1In1812,NapoleonBonaparte,EmperoroftheFrench,ledhisGrandArmyintoRussia.HewaspreparedforthefierceresistanceoftheRussianpeopledefendingtheirhomeland.HewaspreparedforthelongmarchacrossRussiansoiltoMoscow,thecapitalcity.ButhewasnotpreparedforthedevastatingenemythatmethiminMoscow--theraw,bitter,bleakRussianwinter.1812年,法國皇帝拿破侖·波拿巴率大軍入侵俄羅斯。他準(zhǔn)備好俄羅斯人民會為保衛(wèi)祖國而奮勇抵抗。他準(zhǔn)備好在俄羅斯廣袤的國土上要經(jīng)過長途跋涉才能進(jìn)軍首都莫斯科。但他沒有料到在莫斯科他會遭遇勁敵—俄羅斯陰冷凄苦的寒冬。2In1941,AdolfHitler,leaderofNaziGermany,launchedanattackagainsttheSovietUnion,asRussiathenwascalled.Hitler'smilitarymightwasunequaled.HiswarmachinehadmoweddownresistanceinmostofEurope.Hitlerexpectedashortcampaignbut,likeNapoleonbeforehim,wastaughtapainfullesson.TheRussianwinteragaincametotheaidoftheSovietsoldiers.1941年,納粹德國元首阿道夫·希特勒進(jìn)攻當(dāng)時被稱作蘇聯(lián)的俄羅斯。希特勒的軍事實(shí)力堪稱無敵。他的戰(zhàn)爭機(jī)器掃除了歐洲絕大局部地區(qū)的抵抗。希特勒希望速戰(zhàn)速決,但是,就像在他之前的拿破侖一樣,他得到的是痛苦的教訓(xùn)。仍是俄羅斯的冬天助了蘇維埃士兵一臂之力。Napoleon'sCampaign拿破侖發(fā)起的戰(zhàn)役3Inthespringof1812,NapoleonassembledanarmyofsixhundredthousandmenonthebordersofRussia.Thesoldierswerewelltrained,efficient,andwellequipped.ThismilitaryforcewascalledtheGrandArmy.Napoleon,confidentofaquickvictory,predictedtheconquestofRussiainfiveweeks.1812年春,拿破侖在俄國邊境屯兵60萬。這些士兵受過良好訓(xùn)練,作戰(zhàn)力強(qiáng),裝備精良。這支軍隊(duì)被稱為大軍。拿破侖對馬到成功充滿自信,預(yù)言要在5個星期內(nèi)攻下俄國。4Shortlyafterwards,Napoleon'sarmycrossedtheNemanRiverintoRussia不久,拿破侖的大軍渡過涅曼河進(jìn)入俄國。拿破侖期盼著的速決速勝遲遲沒有發(fā)生。令他吃驚的是,俄國人并不奮起抵抗。相反,他們一路東撤,沿途焚毀莊稼和民居。大軍緊追不舍,但它的長驅(qū)直入很快由于糧草運(yùn)輸緩慢而停頓下來。5InAugust,theFrenchandRussianarmiesengagedatSmolensk,inabattlethatleftovertenthousanddeadoneachside.Yet,theRussianswereagainabletoretreatfartherintoRussianterritory.Napoleonhadwonnodecisivevictory.Hewasnowfacedwithacrucialdecision.ShouldhecontinuetopursuetheRussianarmy?OrshouldhekeephisarmyinSmolenskfortheapproachingwinter?到了8月,法俄兩軍在斯摩棱斯克交戰(zhàn),這一戰(zhàn)役中,雙方各有上萬人陣亡??墒牵韲巳阅茉谧约旱膰辽侠^續(xù)后撤。拿破侖未能取得決定性的勝利。此刻他面臨著一個重要抉擇。是繼續(xù)追擊俄國軍隊(duì),還是把軍隊(duì)駐扎在斯摩棱斯克,在那兒度過將到的冬天?6NapoleontookthegambleofpressingontoMoscow,448kilometersaway.OnSeptember7,1812,theFrenchandRussianarmiesmetinfiercebattleatBorodino,112kilometerswestofMoscow.Bynightfall,thirtythousandFrenchandforty-fourthousandRussianslaydeadorwoundedonthebattlefield.拿破侖孤注一擲,決定向遠(yuǎn)在448公里之外的莫斯科進(jìn)發(fā)。1812年9月7日,法俄兩軍在莫斯科以西112公里外的鮑羅季諾激戰(zhàn)。夜幕降臨時,3萬名法國士兵以及4.4萬名俄國士兵或傷或亡,倒在了戰(zhàn)場上。7Again,theRussianarmyretreatedtosafety.NapoleonhadaclearpathtoMoscow,buttheoccupationofthecitybecameanemptyvictory.TheRussiansfledtheircapital.SoonaftertheFrencharrived,aragingfiredestroyedtwo-thirdsofthecity.NapoleonofferedatrucetoAlexanderI,buttheRussianczarknewhecouldbidehistime:"WeshalllettheRussianwinterfightthewarforus."俄國軍隊(duì)再次撤往平安之處。拿破侖順利進(jìn)入莫斯科,然而,對該市的占領(lǐng)成為毫無意義的勝利。俄國人棄城而走。法國人進(jìn)城不久,一場熊熊大火燒毀了整個城市的三分之二。拿破侖向亞歷山大一世提出停戰(zhàn),但沙皇深知他可以等待時機(jī):“且讓俄羅斯的嚴(yán)冬為我們戰(zhàn)斗吧。〞8Napoleonsoonrealizedhecouldnotfeed,clothe,andquarterhisarmyinMoscowduringthewinter.InOctober1812,heorderedhisGrandArmytoretreatfromMoscow.拿破侖很快意識到,他無法在冬天向遠(yuǎn)在莫斯科的軍隊(duì)供給糧草、提供御寒衣物和宿營之地。1812年10月,他命令大軍撤出莫斯科。9TheFrenchretreatturnedintoanightmare.Fromfieldsandforests,theRussianslaunchedhit-and-runattacksontheFrench.AshortdistancefromMoscow,thetemperaturehadalreadydroppedtominus4degreesCelsius.OnNovember3,thewinter'sfirstsnowcame.Exhaustedhorsesfelldeadintheirtracks.Cannonbecamestuckinthesnow.Equipmenthadtobeburnedforfuel.Soldierstookillandfrozetodeath.TheFrenchsoldiersdraggedon,leavingthedeadalongeverymile.法軍的撤離成為一場噩夢。俄國人出沒于田野與森林,采用打了就跑的戰(zhàn)術(shù),向法國人發(fā)起攻擊。剛出莫斯科城,氣溫就降到攝氏零下4度。11月3日降下初雪。困乏的馬匹倒地而死。大炮陷入雪中。裝備只得被用作燃料燃燒。士兵們?nèi)静鏊馈7▏勘现_步行進(jìn),一路上留下無數(shù)死尸。10AstheRussianarmywasgatheringitsstrength,theFrenchhadtofleeRussiatoavoidcertaindefeat.AttheBerezinaRiver,theRussiansnearlytrappedtheretreatingFrenchbyburningthebridgesovertheswollenriver.ButNapoleon,byastrokeofluck,wasabletobuildtwonewbridges.ThousandsofFrenchsoldiersescaped,butatthecostoffiftythousanddead.Onceacrossthe正當(dāng)俄羅斯軍隊(duì)集聚兵力之時,法國人卻不得不逃離俄國,以防止注定的失敗。在別列茲那河,俄國人燃燒了漲水的河道上的橋梁,差點(diǎn)將后撤的法軍困于河邊。僥幸的是,拿破侖居然突擊造起兩座橋。成千上萬法國士兵得以逃脫,但卻損失了5萬人。渡過別列茲拿河,潰不成軍的幸存者一瘸一拐地向維爾紐行進(jìn)。11OfthesixhundredthousandsoldiersNapoleonhadledintoRussia,lessthanonehundredthousandcameback.TheweakenedFrencharmycontinueditsretreatwestwardacrossEurope.Soon,Britain,Austria,Russia,andPrussiaformedapowerfulallianceandattackedthesestragglers.InMarch1814,Pariswascaptured.Napoleonabdicatedandwentintoexile,hisempireatanend.拿破侖發(fā)兵60萬進(jìn)入俄國,只有不到10萬士兵返回。元?dú)獯髠姆▏婈?duì)在歐洲繼續(xù)西撤。不久,英國、奧地利、俄國以及普魯士組成強(qiáng)大的聯(lián)盟,攻擊這些散兵游勇。1814年3月,巴黎被攻占。拿破侖退位去過流放生活,他締造的帝國隨之滅亡。Hitler'sInvasion12Byearly1941,AdolfHitler,leaderofNaziGermany,hadseizedcontrolofmostofEurope.TotheeastofHitler'sGermanempirewastheSovietUnion.OnJune22,1941,withoutadeclarationofwar,HitlerbegananinvasionoftheSovietUnionthatwasthelargestmilitarylandcampaigninhistory.Confidentofaquickvictory,Hitlerexpectedthecampaigntolastnolongerthanthreemonths.Heplannedtousetheblitzkrieg,or"lightningwar,"tacticsthathaddefeatedtherestofEurope.Theinvasionhadthreebroadthrusts:againstLeningradandMoscowandthroughtheUkraine.希特勒的入侵到1941年初,納粹德國元首阿道夫·希特勒已經(jīng)控制了歐洲大局部地區(qū)。希特勒的德意志帝國的東部與蘇聯(lián)毗鄰。1941年6月22日,希特勒不宣而戰(zhàn),入侵蘇聯(lián),發(fā)動了歷史上規(guī)模最大的一場陸地戰(zhàn)役。希特勒自信能速戰(zhàn)速決,預(yù)計這一戰(zhàn)役不會超過3個月。他方案采用征服了歐洲其余地區(qū)的閃電式戰(zhàn)略。入侵方案包含三大目標(biāo):向列寧格勒與莫斯科進(jìn)攻,并橫掃烏克蘭。13Caughtoffguardbytheinvasion,SovietleaderJosephStalininstructedtheRussianpeopleto"scorchtheearth"infrontoftheGermaninvaders.Farmsandfactorieswereburned,destroyed,orrendereduseless.Duringthefirsttenweeksoftheinvasion,theGermanspushedthefronteastward,andtheRussianssufferedmorethanamillioncasualties.蘇聯(lián)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人約瑟夫·斯大林被打了個措手不及,他指示全國人民在德國入侵者到來之前實(shí)行“焦土〞政策。農(nóng)場和工廠被燃燒毀壞,或被弄得無法運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。在入侵的最初10個星期內(nèi),德國人一路東進(jìn),俄國人傷亡人數(shù)多達(dá)一百多萬。14Inthenorth,theGermansclosedinonLeningrad.Despitegreatsuffering,however,thepeopleofLeningradrefusedtosurrender.AsthebattleofLeningraddraggedonintowinter,thecity'ssituationbecamedesperate.Asfoodranout,peoplediedfromhungeranddisease.Bythemiddleofthewinterof1941-1942,nearlyfourthousandpeoplestarvedtodeatheveryday.Closetoonemillionpeoplediedasaresultofthesiege.在北方,德國人包圍了列寧格勒。盡管忍受著極大困苦,列寧格勒的人民絕不投降。列寧格勒保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)一直持續(xù)到冬季,此時該市的處境變得危急。由于食品匱乏,人們死于饑餓與疾病。到了1941年和1942年之間的寒冬,幾乎每天有4千人死于饑餓。列寧格勒之圍造成近百萬人死亡。15InthecenterofRussia,Hitler'sgoalwasthecaptureofMoscow.BecausetheGermanshadanticipatedaquickvictory,theyhadmadenoplansforwintersupplies.Octoberarrivedwithheavyrains."GeneralMud"sloweddownthemovementoftheGermans'lightningattack.在俄國中部,希特勒的目標(biāo)是占領(lǐng)莫斯科。由于德國人指望速戰(zhàn)速決,他們沒有準(zhǔn)備過冬的補(bǔ)給。10月來臨,大雨不停?!澳酀魧④姩曂涎恿说聡碎W電式進(jìn)攻的行動。16AsHitler'sarmiesdrewcloserandclosertoMoscow,anearly,severewintersettledovertheSovietUnion,theharshestinyears.Temperaturesdroppedtominus48degreesCelsius.Heavysnowsfell.TheGermansoldiers,completelyunpreparedfortheRussianwinter,frozeintheirlightsummeruniforms.TheGermantankslayburiedintheheavysnowbanks.TheRussianwinterbroughttheGermanoffensivetoahalt.正當(dāng)希特勒的軍隊(duì)逼近莫斯科時,寒冷的冬季早早地降臨蘇聯(lián),那是多年不遇的嚴(yán)寒。氣溫降到攝氏零下48度。大雪紛飛。對俄國的嚴(yán)寒冬季毫無思想準(zhǔn)備的德國士兵身著薄弱的夏裝,一個個被凍傷。德國人的坦克掩埋在深深的雪堆中。俄羅斯的冬季阻止了德國人的攻勢。17Bythesummerof1942,Hitlerhadlaunchedtwonewoffensives.Inthesouth,theGermanscapturedSevastopol.HitlerthenpushedeasttoStalingrad,agreatindustrialcitythatstretchedfor48kilometersalongtheVolgaRiver.Despitegreatsuffering,Sovietdefendersrefusedtogiveup到1942夏天,希特勒又發(fā)起兩場新的攻勢。在南方,德國人占領(lǐng)了塞瓦斯托波爾。希特勒隨后向東推進(jìn)到斯大林格勒,那是沿伏爾加河綿延48公里的一座大工業(yè)城市。盡管艱苦卓絕,蘇聯(lián)抵抗者拒絕放棄斯大林格勒。18InNovember1942,theRussianslaunchedacounterattack.WithlittleornoshelterfromthewintercoldinandaroundStalingrad,Germantroopswerefurtherweakenedbyalackoffoodandsupplies.NotuntilJanuary1943didtheGermansgiveuptheirsiege.OfthethreehundredthousandGermansattackingStalingrad,onlyninetythousandstarvingsoldierswereleft.ThelossofthebattleforStalingradfinallyturnedthetideagainstHitler.TheGermanvictorieswereover,thanksinparttotheRussianwinter.1942年11月,俄國人發(fā)起了一場反攻。德國軍隊(duì)在斯大林格勒城內(nèi)外幾乎沒有擋風(fēng)避寒的地方,食品和補(bǔ)給的匱乏更使其元?dú)獯髠?。直?943年1月德國人才放棄圍城。進(jìn)攻斯大林格勒的30萬德國人只剩下9萬忍饑挨餓的士兵。斯大林格勒一戰(zhàn)的失利最終使希特勒時乖運(yùn)蹇。局部地由于俄羅斯的冬季,德國人走向失敗。19During1943and1944,theSovietarmiespushedtheGermanfrontbacktowardthewest.Inthenorth,theRedArmybrokethethree-yearsiegeofLeningradwithasurpriseattackonJanuary15,1944.Withintwoweeks,theheroicsurvivorsofLeningradsawtheirinvadersdepart.ByMarch1944,theUkrainefarmingregionwasagaininSoviethands.OnMay9,1944,SevastopolwasliberatedfromtheGermans.TheRussianswerenowheadingforBerlin.在1943年與1944年期間,蘇聯(lián)軍隊(duì)將德軍陣線往西逼退。在北方,1944年1月15日,紅軍發(fā)起突然襲擊,解除了列寧格勒長達(dá)3年之久的圍困。列寧格勒那些英勇無畏的幸存者看著入侵者在兩個星期內(nèi)全部撤離。到了1944年3月,烏克蘭的農(nóng)村又回到了蘇維埃手中。1944年5月9日,塞瓦斯托波爾從德國人手中被解放出來。至此,俄國人向柏林進(jìn)發(fā)。20ForHitler,theinvasionoftheSovietUnionhadturnedintoamilitarydisaster.FortheRussianpeople,itbroughtunspeakablesuffering.ThetotalSovietdeadinWorldWarIIreachedalmost23million.就希特勒而言,對蘇聯(lián)的入侵成為一場軍事災(zāi)難。對俄羅斯人民來說,這場入侵帶來了無法形容的苦難。蘇維埃在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)中死亡的人數(shù)幾乎到達(dá)2300萬。Russia'sIcyDefender21Theelementsofnaturemustbereckonedwithinanymilitarycampaign.NapoleonandHitlerbothunderestimatedtheseverityoftheRussianwinter.Snow,ice,andfreezingtemperaturestooktheirtollonbothinvadingarmies.FortheRussianpeople,thewinterwasanicydefender.俄羅斯的冰雪衛(wèi)士任何軍事行動都必須考慮到自然的因素。拿破侖和希特勒都低估了俄羅斯冬季的嚴(yán)酷。冰雪和極低的氣溫使兩支侵略軍付出沉重的代價。對俄羅斯人民而言,嚴(yán)冬是他們的冰雪衛(wèi)士。UNIT2-1Smartcarsthatcansee,hear,feel,smell,andtalk?Anddriveontheirown?Thismaysoundlikeadream,butthecomputerrevolutionissettoturnitintoareality.能看、能聽、有知覺、具嗅覺、會說話的智能汽車?還能自動駕駛?這聽起來或許像是在做夢,但計算機(jī)革命正致力于把這一切變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。SmartCarsMichioKaku1Eventheautomobileindustry,whichhasremainedlargelyunchangedforthelastseventyyears,isabouttofeeltheeffectsofthecomputerrevolution.智能汽車米其奧·卡庫即便是過去70年間根本上沒有多少變化的汽車工業(yè),也將感受到計算機(jī)革命的影響。2Theautomobileindustryranksasamongthemostlucrativeandpowerfulindustriesofthetwentiethcentury.Therearepresently500millioncarsonearth,oronecarforeverytenpeople.Salesoftheautomobileindustrystandataboutatrilliondollars,makingittheworld'sbiggestmanufacturingindustry.汽車工業(yè)是20世紀(jì)最賺錢、最有影響力的產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。目前世界上有5億輛車,或者說每10人就有1輛車。汽車工業(yè)的銷售額達(dá)一萬億美元左右,從而成為世界上最大的制造業(yè)。3Thecar,andtheroadsittravelson,willberevolutionizedinthetwenty-firstcentury.Thekeytotomorrow's"smartcars"willbesensors."We'llseevehiclesandroadsthatseeandhearandfeelandsmellandtalkandact,"predictsBillSpreitzer,technicaldirectorofGeneralMotorsCorporation'sITSprogram,whichisdesigningthesmartcarandroadofthefuture.汽車及其行駛的道路,將在21世紀(jì)發(fā)生重大變革。未來“智能汽車〞的關(guān)鍵在于傳感器。“我們會見到能看、能聽、有知覺、具嗅覺、會說話并能采取行動的車輛與道路,〞正在設(shè)計未來智能汽車和智能道路的通用汽車公司ITS工程的技術(shù)主任比爾·斯普雷扎預(yù)言道。4Approximately40,000peoplearekilledeachyearintheUnitedStatesintrafficaccidents.Thenumberofpeoplethatarekilledorbadlyinjuredincaraccidentsissovastthatwedon'tevenbothertomentiontheminthenewspapersanymore.Fullyhalfofthesefatalitiescomefromdrunkdrivers,andmanyothersfromcarelessness.Asmartcarcouldeliminatemostofthesecaraccidents.Itcansenseifadriverisdrunkviaelectronicsensorsthatcanpickupalcoholvaporintheair,andrefusetostartuptheengine.Thecarcouldalsoalertthepoliceandprovideitspreciselocationifitisstolen.美國每年有大約4萬人死于交通事故。在汽車事故中死亡或嚴(yán)重受傷的人數(shù)太多,我們已經(jīng)不屑在報紙上提及。這些死亡的人中至少有半數(shù)是酒后開車者造成的,另有許多死亡事故是駕駛員不小心所導(dǎo)致。智能汽車能消除絕大多數(shù)這類汽車事故。它能通過會感測空氣中的酒精霧氣的電子傳感器檢測開車者是否喝醉酒,并拒絕啟動引擎。這種車還能在遇竊后通報警方,告知車輛確實(shí)切地點(diǎn)。5Smartcarshavealreadybeenbuiltwhichcanmonitorone'sdrivingandthedrivingconditionsnearby.Smallradarshiddeninthebumperscanscanfornearbycars.Shouldyoumakeaseriousdrivingmistake(e.g.,changelaneswhenthereisacarinyour"blindspot")thecomputerwouldsoundanimmediatewarning.能監(jiān)控行車過程以及周圍行車狀況的智能汽車已經(jīng)建造出來。藏在保險杠里的微型雷達(dá)能對周圍的汽車作掃描。如果你發(fā)生重大行車失誤〔如變道時有車輛你“盲點(diǎn)〞內(nèi)〕,計算機(jī)立即會發(fā)出警報。6AttheMITMediaLab,aprototypeisalreadybeingbuiltwhichwilldeterminehowsleepyyouareasyoudrive,whichisespeciallyimportantforlong-distancetruckdrivers.Themonotonous,almosthypnoticprocessofstaringatthecenterdividerforlonghoursisagrosslyunderestimated,life-threateninghazard.Toeliminatethis,atinycamerahiddeninthedashboardcanbetrainedonadriver'sfaceandeyes.Ifthedriver'seyelidscloseforacertainlengthoftimeandhisorherdrivingbecomeserratic,acomputerinthedashboardcouldalertthedriver.在麻省理工學(xué)院媒介實(shí)驗(yàn)室,業(yè)已制造出能測知你行車時有多少睡意的樣車,這對長途卡車司機(jī)意義尤其重要。一連數(shù)小時注視著中夾分道線這樣一個單調(diào)、幾乎能催眠的過程是被嚴(yán)重低估的威脅生命的重大隱患。為消除這一隱患,藏在儀表板里的一架微型相機(jī)可對準(zhǔn)開車者的臉部及眼睛。如果司機(jī)的眼簾合上一定時間,行車變得不穩(wěn),儀表板里的計算機(jī)就會向司機(jī)發(fā)出警報。7Twoofthemostfrustratingthingsaboutdrivingacararegettinglostandgettingstuckintraffic.Whilethecomputerrevolutionisunlikelytocuretheseproblems,itwillhaveapositiveimpact.Sensorsinyourcartunedtoradiosignalsfromorbitingsatellitescanlocateyourcarpreciselyatanymomentandwarnoftrafficjams.Wealreadyhavetwenty-fourNavstarsatellitesorbitingtheearth,makingupwhatiscalledtheGlobalPositioningSystem.Theymakeitpossibletodetermineyourlocationontheearthtowithinaboutahundredfeet.Atanygiventime,thereareseveralGPSsatellitesorbitingoverheadatadistanceofabout11,000miles.Eachsatellitecontainsfour"atomicclocks,"whichvibrateataprecisefrequency,accordingtothelawsofthequantumtheory.開車最頭疼的兩大麻煩是迷路和交通堵塞。雖然計算機(jī)革命不可能徹底解決這兩個問題,但卻會帶來積極的影響。你汽車上與繞軌道運(yùn)行的衛(wèi)星發(fā)出的無線電信號調(diào)諧的傳感器能隨時精確地確定你汽車的方位,并告知交通阻塞情況。我們已經(jīng)有24顆環(huán)繞地球運(yùn)行的導(dǎo)航衛(wèi)星,組成了人們所說的全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng)。通過這些衛(wèi)星我們有可能以小于100英尺的誤差確定你在地球上的方位。在任何一個特定時間,總有假設(shè)干顆全球定位系統(tǒng)的衛(wèi)星在11000英里的高空繞地球運(yùn)行。每顆衛(wèi)星都裝有4個“原子鐘〞,它們根據(jù)量子理論法那么,以精確的頻率振動。

8Asasatellitepassesoverhead,itsendsoutaradiosignalthatcanbedetectedbyareceiverinacar'scomputer.Thecar'scomputercanthencalculatehowfarthesatelliteisbymeasuringhowlongittookforthesignaltoarrive.Sincethespeedoflightiswellknown,anydelayinreceivingthesatellite'ssignalcanbeconvertedintoadistance.衛(wèi)星從高空經(jīng)過時發(fā)出能被汽車上計算機(jī)里的接收器識別的無線電信號。汽車上的計算機(jī)就會根據(jù)信號傳來所花的時間計算出衛(wèi)星有多遠(yuǎn)。由于光速為人熟知,接收衛(wèi)星信號時的任何時間緩慢都能折算出距離的遠(yuǎn)近。9InJapan在日本,具有某種導(dǎo)航能力的汽車已有一百萬輛之多?!灿行?dǎo)航裝置通過將方向盤的轉(zhuǎn)動與汽車在地圖上的位置并置來測定汽車的方位?!?0Withthepriceofmicrochipsdroppingsodrastically,futureapplicationsofGPSarevirtuallylimitless."Thecommercialindustryispoisedtoexplode,"saysRandyHoffmanofMagellanSystemsCorp.,whichmanufacturesnavigationalsystems.BlindindividualscoulduseGPSsensorsinwalkingsticks,airplanescouldlandbyremotecontrol,hikerswillbeabletolocatetheirpositioninthewoods--thelistofpotentialusesisendless.隨著微芯片價格的大幅度下降,未來對全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用幾乎是無限的?!爸圃爝@一商品的工業(yè)定會飛速開展,〞生產(chǎn)導(dǎo)航系統(tǒng)的麥哲倫航儀公司的蘭迪·霍夫曼說。盲人可以在手杖里裝配全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng)傳感器,飛機(jī)可以通過遙控著陸,徒步旅行者可以測定自己在林中的方位—其潛在的應(yīng)用范圍是無止境的。11GPSisactuallybutpartofalargermovement,called"telematics,"whichwilleventuallyattempttoputsmartcarsonsmarthighways.PrototypesofsuchhighwaysalreadyexistinEurope,andexperimentsarebeingmadeinCaliforniatomountcomputerchips,sensors,andradiotransmittersonhighwaystoalertcarstotrafficjamsandobstructions.全球衛(wèi)星定位系統(tǒng)其實(shí)只是叫做“遠(yuǎn)程信息學(xué)〞的這一更大行動的一局部,這一行動最終將把智能汽車送上智能高速公路。這種高速公路的樣品已經(jīng)在歐洲問世,加州也在進(jìn)行試驗(yàn),在高速公路上安裝計算機(jī)芯片、傳感器和無線電發(fā)射機(jī),以便向汽車報告交通擁擠堵塞情況。12Onaneight-milestretchofInterstate15tenmilesnorthofSanDiego,trafficengineersareinstallinganMIT-designedsystemwhichwillintroducethe"automateddriver."Theplancallsforcomputers,aidedbythousandsofthree-inchmagneticspikesburiedinthehighway,totakecompletecontrolofthedrivingofcarsonheavilytraffickedroads.Carswillbebunchedintogroupsoftentotwelvevehicles,onlysixfeetapart,travelinginunison,andcontrolledbycomputer.在圣迭戈以北10英里的15號州際公路一段8英里長的路面上,交通工程師正在安裝一個由麻省理工學(xué)院設(shè)計的引進(jìn)“自動司機(jī)〞的系統(tǒng)。這一方案要求計算機(jī)在公路上埋設(shè)的數(shù)千個3英寸長的磁釘?shù)膮f(xié)助下,在車輛極多的路段完全控制車輛的運(yùn)行。車輛會編成10輛或12輛一組,車距僅6英尺,在計算機(jī)的控制下一齊行駛。13Promotersofthiscomputerizedhighwayhavegreathopesforitsfuture.By2023,telematicsmaywellbeincorporatedintooneofthemajorhighwaysintheUnitedStates.Ifsuccessful,by2023,asthepriceofmicrochipsdropstobelowapennyapiece,telematicscouldbeadoptedinthousandsofmilesofhighwaysintheUnitedStates.Thiscouldprovetobeanenvironmentalboonaswell,savingfuel,reducingtrafficjams,decreasingairpollution,andservingasanalternativetohighwayexpansion.

這種計算機(jī)化的公路的倡導(dǎo)者對其未來的應(yīng)用充滿希望。到2023年,遠(yuǎn)程信息技術(shù)很可能應(yīng)用于美國的一條主要公路。如果成功的話,到2023年,當(dāng)微芯片的價格降到一片一美分以下時,遠(yuǎn)程信息技術(shù)就會應(yīng)用在美國成千上萬英里的公路上。這對環(huán)保也會很有利,能節(jié)省燃油,減輕交通阻塞,減少空氣污染,還可用作公路擴(kuò)建的替代方法。UNIT2-2SteveShladoveroutlinesthebenefitstobegainedfromvehiclesthatcoulddrivethemselvesanddiscusseshowthiscouldbeachieved.斯蒂夫·施多弗闡述了能自動運(yùn)行的車輛的諸多裨益,并詳細(xì)論述了如何將其變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)。IntelligentVehiclesSteveShladover1Evenwhencarswerestillyoung,futuristsbeganthinkingaboutvehiclesthatcoulddrivethemselves,withouthumanhelp.PerhapsthebestknownoftheseconjectureswastheGeneralMotorsFuturama,thehitofthe1939NewYorkWorld'sFair.Now,atthestartofthenewcentury,it'sworthtakingafreshlookatthisconceptandaskinghowautomationmightchangetransportationandthequalityofourlives.智能車輛斯蒂夫·施多弗還在汽車問世之初,未來學(xué)家就開始設(shè)想無需人來操縱便能自動運(yùn)行的車輛將是什么樣兒的。這類設(shè)想最知名的或許是1939年紐約世界博覽會上轟動一時的由通用汽車公司推出的“未來城市風(fēng)光〞。今天,在世紀(jì)之初,以新的目光去審視這樣的設(shè)想,去探討自動化將如何改變交通以及我們的生活質(zhì)量,是頗具價值的。2Considersomeoftheimplicationsofcarsthatcoulddrivethemselves.●Wemighteliminatethemorethanninetypercentoftrafficcrashesthatarecausedbyhumanerrorssuchasmisjudgmentsandinattention.●Wemightreduceantisocialdrivingbehaviorsuchasroadrage,therebysignificantlyreducingthestressofdriving.●Theentirepopulation,includingtheyoung,theold,andtheinfirm,mightenjoyahigherlevelofmobilitywithoutrequiringadvanceddrivingskills.●Theluxuryofbeingchauffeuredtoyourdestinationmightbeenjoyedbyall,notjustthewealthiestindividuals.●Fuelconsumptionandpollutionmightbereducedbysmoothingtrafficflowandrunningvehiclescloseenoughtoeachothertobenefitfromaerodynamicdrafting.●Traffic-managementdecisionsmightbebasedonfirmknowledgeofvehicleresponsestoinstructions,ratherthanonguessesaboutthechoicesthatdriversmightmake.●Thecapacityofafreewaylanemightbedoubledortripled,makingitpossibletoaccommodategrowingdemandsfortravelwithoutmajornewconstruction,or,equivalently,today'slevelofcongestionmightbereduced,enablingtravelerstosavetime.且來看一看能自動運(yùn)行的汽車意味著什么。●我們或許能消除90%以上由于判斷失誤以及疏忽等人為因素造成的交通事故。●我們或許能減少野蠻開車這類有害公眾利益的開車行為,從而大大減輕行車壓力?!裆鐣w成員,包括老老少少與體弱者,也許都不需習(xí)得嫻熟的駕車技巧就能較為自由地奔馳了?!癖婚_車接送也許會成為世人共同的享受,而不僅僅是最富裕階層的一種奢侈?!褴嚵魍〞?,相互緊隨行駛的車輛能利用前車產(chǎn)生的較小的空氣阻力,這些都可能減少油耗和污染?!窠煌ü芾韺⒃诔浞至私廛囕v對指令的應(yīng)變能力的根底上,而非基于對車輛駕駛者可能采取的行動的粗略估測?!窀咚俟返能嚾萘繒黾右槐痘蚨?,使其不必大興土木就能適應(yīng)不斷增長的行車需求;或者,同樣重要地,目前交通擁堵的程度能得到緩解,以使行車者節(jié)省時間。Isitfeasible?3Thisisnowarealisticprospect.Withadvancesintechnologywecanreadilyvisualizeyourtriponanautomatedhighwaysystem.是否可行?目前這已成為一個可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的希望。隨著技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,我們不難設(shè)想自動化公路系統(tǒng)上的行車過程。4Imagineleavingworkattheendofthedayandneedingtodriveonlyasfarastheneareston-ramptothelocalautomatedhighway.Attheon-ramp,youpressabuttononyourdashboardtoselecttheoff-rampclosesttoyourhomeandthenrelaxasyourcar'selectronicsystems,incooperationwithroadsideelectronicsandsimilarsystemsonothercars,guideyourcarsmoothly,safely,andeffortlesslytowardyourdestination.Enrouteyousavetimebymaintainingfullspeedevenatrush-hourtrafficvolumes.Attheendoftheoff-rampyouresumenormalcontrolanddrivetheremainingdistancetoyourhome,betterrestedandlessstressedthanifyouhaddriventheentireway.且來設(shè)想,工作一天下班后,只需開車至最近的一個自動公路入口匝道。到了入口匝道,在儀表板上按一下按鈕選擇離家最近的出口匝道,隨后就休息放松,由車上的電子系統(tǒng)與路旁的電子裝置以及其他車輛上類似的系統(tǒng)合作,把車平穩(wěn)、平安、順暢地開往目的地。即使是在車流量最大的頂峰時段,也能一路全速行駛,從而節(jié)省時間。下了出口匝道,再照平常那樣駕駛,開過余下的路程回家,那要比自己全程駕駛省力輕松許多。5Althoughmanydifferenttechnicaldevelopmentsarenecessarytoturnthisimageintoreality,nonerequiresexotictechnologies,andallcanbebasedonsystemsandcomponentsthatarealreadybeingactivelydevelopedintheinternationalmotorvehicleindustry.Thesecouldbeviewedasreplacementsforthediversefunctionsthatdriversperformeveryday:observingtheroad,observingtheprecedingvehicles,steering,accelerating,braking,anddecidingwhenandwheretochangecourse.要把這一景象變成現(xiàn)實(shí)固然需要各種不同的技術(shù)開展,但也無需什么匪夷所思的技術(shù),所有的技術(shù)都能以國際車輛制造業(yè)正在積極開發(fā)研制的各種系統(tǒng)和部件作為根底。這些技術(shù)可以被看作是車輛駕駛者日常開車所起各種作用的替代:觀察路況,留意前行車輛,掌握方向,加速,剎車,變道。Observingtheroad6Researchershavedevelopedaroad-referenceandsensingsystemthatmakesitpossibletodetermineaccuratelyavehicle'spositionandorientationrelativetothelane'scenter.Cheappermanentmagnetsareburiedatfour-footintervalsalongthelanecenterlineanddetectedbymagnetometersmountedunderthevehicle'sbumpers..Thesemetersprovidetheinformationusedbythevehicle'scontrolcomputertodetermineitsexactpositionofthevehicle.觀察路況研究人員開發(fā)了一種路況參考及傳感系統(tǒng),這些能準(zhǔn)確判斷車輛的方位及所在車道中心的相應(yīng)定位。價格低廉的永磁體以4英尺的間隔埋設(shè)在車道中心線上,車輛保險桿下安裝著的磁強(qiáng)計能夠測知。這些磁強(qiáng)計向車上的計算機(jī)控制臺提供信息,以斷定車輛確實(shí)切方位。7Otherresearchershaveusedcomputervisionsystemstoobservetheroad.(1)Thesearevulnerabletoweatherproblemsandprovidelessaccuratemeasurements,buttheydonotrequirespecialroadwayinstallations,otherthanwell-maintainedlanemarkings.其他研究人員利用計算機(jī)圖像系統(tǒng)觀察路況。這類系統(tǒng)易受氣候變化的影響,提供的數(shù)據(jù)不夠精確,但它們不需要特別的道路設(shè)置,只需要將路面標(biāo)志維護(hù)好就行了。Observingprecedingvehicles8Thedistancesandclosingratestoprecedingvehiclescanbemeasuredbyaradaroralaserrangefinder.BothtechnologieshavealreadybeenimplementedincommerciallyavailablesystemsinJapanandEurope.Thelasersystemsarecurrentlylessexpensive,buttheradarsystemsaremoreeffectiveatdetectingdirtyvehiclesandoperatinginadverseweatherconditions.Asproductionvolumesincreaseandunitcostsdecrease,theradarsarelikelytofindincreasingfavor.留意前行車輛與前行車輛的車距及接近時的速度可用雷達(dá)或激光測距儀測定。這兩項(xiàng)技術(shù)已經(jīng)在日本和歐洲投入商業(yè)運(yùn)用。目前激光系統(tǒng)比擬廉價,但雷達(dá)系統(tǒng)能更加有效地測知野蠻行駛的車輛,能更加平安地在天氣惡劣時操作。隨著產(chǎn)量的提高,本錢的降低,雷達(dá)系統(tǒng)將會越來越受歡送。Steering,acceleratingandbraking9Theequivalentsofthesedrivermusclefunctionsareelectromechanicaldevicesinstalledintheautomatedvehicle.Theyreceiveelectroniccommandsfromtheonboardcontrolcomputerandthenapplytheappropriatesteeringangle,throttleangle,andbrakepressurebymeansofsmallelectricmotors.Earlyversionsofthesedevicesarealreadybeingintroducedintoproductionofvehicles,wheretheyreceivetheircommandsdirectlyfromthedriver'sinputstothesteeringwheelandpedals.Thesedecisionsarebeingmadeforreasonslargelyunrelatedtoautomation.Rathertheyareassociatedwithreducedenergyconsumption,simplificationofvehicledesign,enhancedeaseofvehicleassembly,improvedabilitytoadjustperformancetomatchdriverpreferences,andcostsavingscomparedtotraditionaldirectmechanicalcontroldevices.掌握方向、加速和剎車相當(dāng)于車輛駕駛者肌功能的是安置在自動車輛上的電動機(jī)械裝置。它們接收車上計算機(jī)控制臺發(fā)出的電子指令,再憑借小型電力發(fā)動機(jī)恰當(dāng)?shù)乜刂品较?、油門大小以及剎車緊急程度。車輛生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)采用這類裝置的最初樣本,它們通過駕駛者給方向盤和踏板的輸入信息直接獲得指令。決定開發(fā)這類產(chǎn)品大都與自動化無關(guān)。與之有關(guān)的因素有降低能耗、簡化車輛設(shè)計、進(jìn)一步提高車輛裝配效率、改善根據(jù)車輛駕駛者的喜好調(diào)節(jié)性能的能力,以及低于傳統(tǒng)的機(jī)械直控裝置的本錢等。Decidingwhenandwheretochangecourse10Computersinthevehiclesandthoseattheroadsidehavedifferentfunctions.Roadsidecomputersarebettersuitedfortrafficmanagement,settingthetargetspeedforeachsegmentandlaneofroadway,andallocatingvehiclestodifferentlanesofamultilaneautomatedfacility.Theaimistomaintainbalancedflowamongthelanesandtoavoidobstaclesorincidentsthatmightblockalane.Thevehicle'sonboardcomputersarebettersuitedtohandlingdecisionsaboutexactlywhenandwheretochangelanestoavoidinterferencewithothervehicles.決定何時何處變道車用計算機(jī)與路邊裝置的計算機(jī)功能不同。路邊設(shè)置的計算機(jī)更適用于交通管理,如為不同路段和車道設(shè)定限速,通過多車道自動化設(shè)施為車輛安排不同的車道。其目的是使各車道的車流量保持平衡,防止可能堵塞車道的障礙或事故。車用計算機(jī)更適用于精確地判斷在什么時間和位置改變車道,以防止與其他車輛碰撞。Remainingchallenges11Thereremainanumberofdifficultiestobeovercome.Thesearemainlytechnical,butthereareinadditionanumberofnontechnicalchallengesthatneedtobeaddressed.Theseinvolveissuesofliability,costs,andperceptions.尚存的挑戰(zhàn)尚有許多困難有待克服。主要是技術(shù)性難題,但此外也有不少非技術(shù)性的挑戰(zhàn)需要面對,其中包括行車責(zé)任、本錢以及觀念等問題。12Automatedcontrolofvehiclesshiftsliabilityformostcrashesfromtheindividualdriver(andhisorherinsurancecompany)tothedesigner,developer,andvendorofthevehicleandroadwaycontrolsystems.Providedthesystemisindeedsaferthantoday'sdriver-vehicle-highwaysystem,overallliabilityexposureshouldbereduced.Butitscostswillbeshiftedfromautomobileinsurancepremiumstothepurchaseorleasepriceoftheautomatedvehicleandtollforuseoftheautomatedhighwayfacility.車輛的自動控制把大多數(shù)事故的責(zé)任從車輛駕駛者個人〔及其保險公司〕轉(zhuǎn)移到設(shè)計者、研制者以及車輛和道路控制系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)銷商身上。如果這一系統(tǒng)確實(shí)比當(dāng)今的車輛駕駛者—車輛—公路系統(tǒng)平安,總體責(zé)任風(fēng)險就會減少。但其本錢會從汽車保險金轉(zhuǎn)移到自動車輛的售價或租金,以及自動公路設(shè)施的使用費(fèi)上來。13Allnewtechnologiestendtobecostlywhentheyfirstbecomeavailableinsmallquantities,thentheircostsdeclineasproductionvolumesincreaseandthetechnologiesmature.Weshouldexpectvehicleautomationtechnologiestofollowthesamepattern.Theymayinitiallybeeconomicallyviableonlyforheavyvehicles(transitbuses,commercialtrucks)andhigh-endpassengercars.However,itshouldnottakelongforthecoststobecomeaffordabletoawiderangeofvehicleownersandoperators,especiallywithmanyoftheenablingtechnologiesalreadybeingcommercializedforvolumeproductiontoday.任何新技術(shù)在最初小批量供給時

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