學術(shù)綜合英語1-6課課文及翻譯

Presentingaspeech〔做演講〕Ofallhumancreations,languagemaybethemostremarkable.Through在人類所有的創(chuàng)造中，語言也許是影響最為深遠的。我們用語言languageweshareexperience,formulatevalues,exchangeideas,transmit來分享經(jīng)驗，表達(傳遞？)價值觀，交換想法，傳播知識，knowledge,andsustainculture.Indeed,languageisvitaltothinkitself.傳承文化。事實上，對語言本身的思考也是至關(guān)重要的。[Contrarytopopularbelief],language|doesnotsimplymirrorrealitybutalsohelpstocreateoursenseofreality[bygivingmeaningtoevents].和通常所認為的不同的是，語言并不只是簡單地反映現(xiàn)實，語言在具體描述事件的時候也在幫助我們建立對現(xiàn)實的感知?！Z序的調(diào)整。Goodspeakershaverespectforlanguageandknowhowitworks.Wordsarethetoolsofaspeaker’scraft.Theyhavespecialuses,justlikethetoolsofanyotherprofession.Asaspeaker,youshouldbeawareofthemeaningofwordsandknowhowtouselanguageaccurately,clearly,vividly,andappropriately.好的演講者對語言很重視，也知道如何讓它發(fā)揮更好的效果。詞語是演講者演講的重要“武器〞，具有特殊的用途，這和任何其他的工作技藝沒什么兩樣。作為演講者，必須知道詞語的具體含義，也要懂得如何做到用詞準確、清晰、生動、適當。Usinglanguageaccuratelyisasvitaltoaspeakerasusingnumbersaccuratelytoaaccountant.Neveruseawordunlessyouaresureofitsmeaning.Ifyouarenotsure,lookupthewordinthedictionary.Asyouprepareyourspeeches,askyourselfconstantly,“WhatdoIreallywanttosay?WhatdoIreallymean?〞Choosewordsthatarepreciseandaccurate.演講者準確地使用語言和會計準確使用數(shù)字是一樣重要的。確定詞意后再措詞。如果不確定，請先查詞典。當你在準備演講的時候，要不斷地問自己：“我到底要說什么？我到底想表達什么意思？〞用詞一定要精準。Usinglanguageclearlyallowslistenerstograspyourmeaningimmediately.Youcanensurethis[byusingfamiliarwords〔thatareknowntotheaveragepersonandrequirenospecializedbackground〕;bychoosingconcretewordsinpreferencetomoreabstractones,andbyeliminatingverbalclutter].用詞清晰可以讓聽眾迅速理解你的意思〔抓到你的點〕。要做到這一點，就要盡量使用一般人都熟悉的不需要專業(yè)知識就能懂的詞語；多用具象詞匯少用抽象詞匯；還有要減少口誤。Usinglanguagevividlyhelpsbringyourspeechtolife.Oneway(tomakeyourspeechvivid)|isthroughimagery，orthecreationofwordpictures.Youcandevelopimagerybyusingconcretelanguage,simile,andmetaphor.Simileisanexplicitcomparisonbetweenthings〔thatareessentiallydifferentyethavesomethingincommon〕;italwayscontainsthewords“l(fā)ike〞or“as〞.Metaphorisanimplicitcomparisonbetweenthingsthataredifferentyethavesomethingincommon;itdoesnotcontainthewords“l(fā)ike〞or“as〞.生動地用詞能讓演講鮮活起來！比喻，這種能產(chǎn)生文字圖像的修辭，可以使演講到達生動的效果。比喻要用具象的語言，分為明喻和隱喻。明喻是指在本質(zhì)上有區(qū)別但仍然有相同點的事物之間做一個明確的比擬，一般句中會含有“像〞或“似〞。隱喻那么是一種隱藏的比擬，不會出現(xiàn)like和as這些連接詞。Anotherwaytomakeyourspeechesvividisbyexploitingtherhythmoflanguage.Fourdevicesforcreatingrhythmareparallelism,repetition,alliteration,andantithesis.Parallelismisthesimilararrangementofapairorseriesofrelatedwords,phrases,orsentences.Repetitionistheuseofthesamewordorsetofwordsatthebeginningorendofsuccessiveclausesorsentences.Alliterationcomesfromrepeatingtheinitialconstantsoundsofcloseoradjoiningwords.Antithesisisthejuxtapositionofcontrastingideas,usuallyinparallelstructure.我們還可以充分利用語言的節(jié)奏感使演講更加生動活潑。具體有以下四種方式——排比，反復，押頭韻和對偶。排比是指把一組或一系列相關(guān)的字詞句以相似結(jié)構(gòu)排列起來。反復是指在連續(xù)幾個從句或句子的開頭或結(jié)尾處使用相同的詞和詞組。押頭韻那么是通過重復相鄰之間單詞首個輔音實現(xiàn)的。對偶通常是用平行的結(jié)構(gòu)將相反的想法并列在一起。Usinglanguageappropriatelymeansadaptingtotheparticularoccasion,audience,andtopicathand.Italsomeansdevelopingyourownlanguagestyleinsteadoftryingtocopysomeoneelse’s.Ifyourlanguageisappropriateinallrespects,yourspeechismuchmorelikelytosucceed.用語恰當意味著遣詞造句要與特定的場合，觀眾以及談論的話題相適應。這也意味著你得建立自己的語言風格，不能簡單抄襲他人。如果使用的語言與各方面都很契合，那么演講就更有可能取得成功。Goodspeechesarenotcomposedofhotairandunfoundedassertions.Theyneedstrongsupportingmaterialstobolsterthespeaker’spointofview.Infact,theskillfuluseofsupportingmaterialsoftenmakesthedifferencebetweenagoodspeechandapoorone.Thethreebasictypesofsupportingmaterialsareexamples,statisticsandtestimony.好的演講不能是空話連篇，也不能是一些毫無根據(jù)的論斷；而是需要有力的論據(jù)來支持演講者的觀點。事實上，能否有技巧地使用論據(jù)會造成演講效果的天壤之別。論據(jù)有以下三種根本形式：例子，統(tǒng)計資料，引用。Inthecourseofaspeechyoumayusebriefexamples—specificinstancesreferredtoinpassing—andsometimesyoumaywanttogiveseveralbriefexamplesinarowtocreateastrongerimpression.Extendedexamples—oftencalledillustrations,narrations,oranecdotes—arelongerandmoredetailed.Hypotheticalexamplesdescribeimagerysituationsandcanbequiteeffectiveforrelatingideastotheaudience.Allthreekindsofexampleshelptoclarifyideas,toreinforceideas,ortopersonalizeideas.Tobemoreeffective,though,theyshouldbevividandrichlytextured.在演講時可以簡單舉例——即附帶地提及幾個具體的例子——有時也需要接二連三舉例來加深印象。延伸舉例——也叫解釋、表達或軼事——更長更詳盡。假設(shè)舉例描述的是想象的情景，能夠很好地把想法傳達給觀眾。這三種不同的例子都有助于演講者清晰地表達觀點，強調(diào)觀點并使之打上演講者的烙印。當然，要想演講效果更好，演講本身必須生動且結(jié)構(gòu)豐富！Statisticscanbeextremelyhelpfulinconveyingyourmessage,[aslongasyouusethemsparinglyandexplainthemsotheyaremeaningfultoyouraudience.]Aboveall,youshouldunderstandyourstatisticsandusethemfairly.Numberscaneasilybemanipulatedanddistorted.Makesure{thatyourfiguresarerepresentativeof{whattheyclaimtomeasure},thatyouusestatisticalmeasurescorrectly,andthatyoutakestatisticsonlyfromreliablesources.}統(tǒng)計資料非常有助于演講者傳遞信息，因為當演講者適量地運用這些資料并加以解釋時，聽眾就能更好地理解其中的意義。最重要的是，演講者必須理解這些統(tǒng)計資料并恰當使用。數(shù)字很容易被篡改、誤報，因此必須確保自己所使用的數(shù)據(jù)不是張冠李戴的；必須確保自己使用的統(tǒng)計措施是正確的；必須確保自己的統(tǒng)計資料來源是可靠的。Testimonyisespeciallyhelpfulforstudentspeakers,becausetheyareseldomrecognizedasexpectsontheirspeechtopics.Citingtheviewsofpeople〔whoareexperts〕isagoodwaytomakeyourideasmorecredible.Whenyouincludetestimonyinaspeech,youcaneitherquotesomeoneverbatimorparaphrasetheirwords.Aswithstatistics,thereareguidelinesforusingtestimony.Besuretoquoteorparaphraseaccuratelyandtocitequalifiedunbiasedsources.Ifthesourceisnotgenerallyknowntoyouraudience,becertaintoestablishhisorhercredentials.引用他人觀點看法對學生演講者來說尤其有用，因為學生很少會被視為他們演講相關(guān)主題方面的專家。引用專家的觀點可以讓你的想法更可信。引用的時候，既可以逐字摘抄也可以自己總結(jié)一下。和統(tǒng)計資料一樣，引用也有原那么可循——引用摘抄準確，來源合格無偏見。如果觀眾對引用來源不太熟悉，一定要〔想方法〕取得他們的信任。Theimpactofaspeechisstronglyaffectedbyhowthespeechisdelivered.Youcannotmakeaspeechwithouthavingsomethingtosay.Buthavingsomethingtosayisnotenough.Youmustalsoknowhowtosayit.Gooddeliverydoesnotcallattentiontoitself.Itconveysthespeaker’sideasclearly,interestingly,and[withoutdistractingtheaudience].演講的效果如何很大程度上取決于演講是怎么做的。無話可說做不好演講，但要做好演講，僅僅有話可說也是遠遠不夠的，還要知道如何說話才行。好的演講不是要喚起觀眾對演講本身的注意，而是要向觀眾清晰有趣地傳遞演講者的想法，同時還要有觀眾聚精會神地聆聽。Therearefourbasicmethodsofdeliveringaspeech:readingverbatimfromamanuscript,recitingamemorizedtext,speakingwithPowerPoint,andspeakingextemporaneously,orimpromptu.Thelastofthese—speakingextemporaneously—isthemethod(youprobablywilluseforclassroomspeechesandformostspeechesoutsidetheclassroom).Whenspeakingextemporaneously,youwillhaveonlyabriefsetofnotesoraspeakingoutline.SpeakingwithPowerPointiswidelyusednowandveryeffectiveindeed.演講有四種最根本的方法：照本宣科式；背誦式；ppt輔助演講式和即興演講式。最后一項即興演講是我們在課堂演講和大局部課外演講中都要用到的方法.即興演講時，我們手上只有簡單的筆記或演講提綱?，F(xiàn)在，用ppt輔助演講十分普遍，效果顯著。Certainlythereareotherfactorsyoushouldconsider,suchaspersonalappearance,bodilyaction,gestures,eyecontact,volume,pausesandsoon.Bypayingenoughattentiontowhatismentionedabove,youmaypresentaneffectivespeech.當然還要考慮其他因素——譬如演講者的個人形象，肢體語言，眼神交流，聲音的抑揚頓挫等等。盡量注意上述問題，演講就會成功！Unit2EnergyinTransition能源轉(zhuǎn)型Theeraofcheapandconvenientsourcesofenergyiscomingtoanend.Atransitiontomoreexpensivebutlesspollutingsourcesmustnowbemanaged.能源資源價格低廉、使用便捷的時代已經(jīng)過去了，目前應向盡管價格較高、但污染較小的資源轉(zhuǎn)變。JohnP.HoldrenUnderstandingthistransitionrequiresalookatthetwo-sidedconnectionbetweenenergyandhumanwell-being.Energycontributespositivelytowell-beingbyprovidingsuchconsumerservicesasheatingandlightingaswellasservingasanecessaryinputtoeconomicproduction.Butthecostsofenergy－includingnotonlythemoneyandotherresourcesdevotedtoobtainingandexploitingitbutalsoenvironmentalandsociopoliticalimpacts－detractfromwell-being.１．要了解這一轉(zhuǎn)變，首先需要考察一下能源和人類幸福的雙重關(guān)系。能源為人類提供了諸如取暖、照明等消費效勞的同時，也為經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)活動提供必要投入，從這個意義上講，能源為人類幸福做出了積極奉獻。然而，人類為利用能源所付出的代價卻削弱了能源為其帶來的利益，這種代價不僅包括為獲取和利用能源所投入的資金和其他資源，而且包含了能源開發(fā)和利用所產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境影響和社會政治影響。Formostofhumanhistory,thedominantconcernsaboutenergyhavecenteredonthebenefitsideoftheenergy－well-beingequation.Inadequacyofenergyresourcesor(moreoften)ofthetechnologiesandorganizationsforharvesting,converting,anddistributingthoseresourceshasmeantinsufficientenergybenefitsandhenceinconvenience,deprivationandconstraintsongrowth.The1970’s,then,representedaturningpoint.Afterdecadesofconstancyordeclineinmonetarycosts－andofrelegationofenvironmentalandsociopoliticalcoststosecondarystatus－energywasseentobegettingcostlierinallrespects.Itbegantobeplausiblethatexcessiveenergycostscouldposethreatsonaparwiththoseofinsufficientsupply.Italsobecamepossibletothinkthatexpandingsomeformsofenergysupplycouldcreatecostsexceedingthebenefits.２．人類歷史開展長河中，人們主要關(guān)心的是能源和人類安康等式中有利的一面。能源資源缺乏或者〔更經(jīng)常〕開采、加工和分配這些資源所需技術(shù)和機構(gòu)的缺乏，會影響能源為人類帶來的利益，對人類也就意味著不方便、損失以及對增長的各種限制。到了20世紀70年代，出現(xiàn)了一個轉(zhuǎn)折點。此前的幾十年中，能源的資金本錢一直保持穩(wěn)定，甚至有所下降，而且，其所牽扯的環(huán)境本錢和社會政治本錢一直處于次要地位。但是20世紀70年代開始，開發(fā)和利用能源的多方本錢均顯著增長。人們自然有理由認為：高昂的能源本錢所帶來的威脅已同能源供給缺乏所產(chǎn)生的威脅不相上下。同時，也有人擔憂，依靠擴大能源資源增加供給所需付出的代價，也許大于其所帶來的利益。Thecrucialquestionatthebeginningofthe1990’siswhetherthetrendthatbeganinthe1970’swillprovetobetemporaryorpermanent.Istheeraofcheapenergyreallyover,orwillacombinationofnewresources,newtechnologyandchanginggeopoliticsbringitback?Onekeydeterminantoftheansweristhestaggeringscaleofenergydemandbroughtforthby100yearsofunprecedentedpopulationgrowth,coupledwithanequallyremarkablegrowthinpercapitademandofindustrialenergyforms.Itentailedtheuseofdirtycoalaswellasclean;underseaoilaswellasterrestrial;deepgasaswellasshallow;mediocrehydroelectricsitesaswellasgoodones;anddeforestationaswellassustainablefuelwoodharvesting.３．20世紀90年代初期人們關(guān)注的焦點在于，這種始于70年代的能源開展趨勢是暫時的還是長遠的。廉價能源時代是真正一去不復返，還是通過開發(fā)新能源、應用新技術(shù)、改革地緣政治秩序等措施，有可能重登歷史舞臺？答復這個問題的一個關(guān)鍵因素是過去100年以來因人口空前增長帶來的令人瞠目的能源需求以及同樣使人無所應對的人均工業(yè)能源需求。急劇增長的能源需求使得人類對能源的使用無所不用其極：不管是清潔煤炭還是劣質(zhì)煤炭〔或“無矸煤還是有矸煤〞〕，見煤就挖；無論是陸上石油還是海底石油，深層氣還是淺層氣，見油氣就采；水電站建設(shè)不管適宜與否，見水就上；一邊綠化造林以求薪材可持續(xù)開展，一邊卻砍樹毀林。ExceptforthehugepoolofoilunderlyingtheMiddleEast,thecheapestoilandgasarealreadygone.Evenifafewmoregiantoilfieldsarediscovered,theywillmakelittledifferenceagainstconsumptionontoday’sscale.Oilandgaswillhavetocomeincreasingly,formostcountries,fromdeeperintheearthandfromimportswhosereliabilityandaffordabilitycannotbeguaranteed.４.除了中東地區(qū)蘊藏著巨大的石油資源，地球上廉價的油氣資源已經(jīng)不復存在了。即使偶爾找到幾個大的油田，同當今巨大的能源消耗相比，也是杯水車薪。對于大多數(shù)國家來說，油氣資源越來越多地依賴進口，且不說進口油氣資源的可靠性無法得到保障，其對進口國的支付能力也是一個考驗。Thereareavarietyofotherenergyresourcesthataremoreabundantthanoilandgas.Coal,solarenergy,andfissionandfusionfuelsarethemostimportantones.Buttheyallrequireelaborateandexpensivetransformationintoelectricityorliquidfuelsinordertomeetsociety’sneeds.Nonehasverygoodprospectsfordeliveringlargequantitiesofelectricityatcostscomparabletothoseofthecheapcoal-firedandhydropowerplantsofthe1960’s.Itappears,then,thatexpensiveenergyisapermanentcondition,evenwithoutallowingforitsenvironmentalcosts.５.誠然，其他許多資源的儲量大于石油和天然氣，最重要的有煤、太陽能、聚變裂變?nèi)剂系取５沁@些能源轉(zhuǎn)化成電力或液體燃料，以滿足社會需求，需要經(jīng)過技術(shù)復雜、本錢昂貴的轉(zhuǎn)化過程。同20世紀60年代本錢低廉的燃煤火電站和水力發(fā)電站相比，僅從本錢考慮，以上各種資源用于大規(guī)模發(fā)電的可能性極小。因此，即使不考慮能源開采的環(huán)境本錢，能源價格居高不下已成無可改變的定局。Thecapacityoftheenvironmenttoabsorbtheeffluentsandotherimpactsofenergytechnologiesisitselfafiniteresource.Thefinitudeismanifestedintwobasictypesofenvironmentalcosts.Externalcostsarethoseimposedbyenvironmentaldisruptionsonsocietybutnotreflectedinthemonetaryaccountsofthebuyersandsellersoftheenergy.“Internalizedcosts〞areincreasesinmonetarycostsimposedbymeasures,suchaspollution-controldevices,aimedatreducingtheexternalcosts.６.環(huán)境吸納由于能源利用而產(chǎn)生的廢棄物和其他影響的能力本身也是有限度的，表現(xiàn)在兩方面的環(huán)境本錢上。所謂“外延本錢〞即由于環(huán)境遭到破壞對社會造成的影響，但尚未反映到能源買賣雙方的交易價格上；所謂“內(nèi)涵本錢〞即為降低外延本錢而采取的各種措施〔如污染防治措施〕所引起的貨幣本錢的增長。Bothtypesofenvironmentalcostshavebeenrisingforseveralreasons.First,thedecliningqualityoffueldepositsandenergy-conversionsitestowhichsocietymustnowturnmeansmorematerialmustbemovedorprocessed,biggerfacilitiesmustbeconstructedandlongerdistancesmustbetraversed.Second,thegrowingmagnitudeofeffluentsfromenergysystemshasledtosaturationoftheenvironment’scapacitytoabsorbsucheffluentswithoutdisruption.Third,themonetarycostsofcontrollingpollutiontendtoincreasewiththepercentageofpollutantsremoved.７.兩種環(huán)境本錢均一直呈增長趨勢，原因是多方面的。首先，社會開展所依賴的燃料礦藏和加工地質(zhì)量下降，必然要求礦物運輸和加工的數(shù)量增加、設(shè)施擴大、運輸距離延長。第二，能源利用所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物不斷增加，使得環(huán)境自我凈化能力到達了極限。第三，污染防治所需的資金本錢亦將隨著消除污染物比例的提高而提高。Despitetheseexpenditures,theremaininguninternalizedenvironmentalcostshavebeensubstantialandinmanycasesaregrowing.Thoseofgreatestconcernaretheriskofdeathordiseaseasaresultofemissionsoraccidentsatenergyfacilitiesandtheimpactofenergysuppliedontheglobalecosystemandoninternationalrelations.８.盡管代價高昂，尚未內(nèi)化的環(huán)境本錢一直居高不下，并在許多情形下呈增長趨勢，其中最引人關(guān)注的是由能源設(shè)施排放廢物或發(fā)生事故所帶來的死亡和疾病，以及由于能源供給對全球生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和國際關(guān)系造成的影響。Theimpactsofenergytechnologiesonpublichealthandsafetyaredifficulttopindownwithmuchconfidence.Inthecaseofairpollutionfromfossilfuels,inwhichthedominantthreattopublichealthisthoughttobeparticulatesformedfromsulfurdioxideemissions,aconsensusonthenumberofdeathscausedbyexposurehasprovedimpossible.Widelydifferingestimatesresultfromdifferentassumptionsaboutfuelcompositions,airpollutioncontroltechnology,power-plantsittinginrelationtopopulationdistribution,meteorologicalconditionsaffectingsulfateformation,and,aboveall,therelationbetweensulfateconcentrationsanddisease.９.能源技術(shù)對于群眾健康和平安所造成的影響難以確定。以礦物燃料造成的空氣污染為例，一般認為其對群眾健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接觸這種污染空氣究竟會導致多少人死亡，卻無法取得一致意見。各種估算數(shù)據(jù)千差萬別，原因在于對以下各種因素的分析各不相同，比方燃料構(gòu)成、空氣污染防治技術(shù)、發(fā)電廠選址同人口分布之間的關(guān)系、氣象條件對硫化物形成的影響，最重要的是硫化物濃度與疾病之間的關(guān)系。Largeuncertaintiesalsoapplytothehealthandsafetyimpactsofnuclearfission.Inthiscase,differingestimatesresultinpartfromdifferencesamongsitesandreactortypes,inpartfromuncertaintiesaboutemissionsfromfuel-cyclestepsthatarenotyetfullyoperational(especiallyfuelreprocessingandmanagementofuranium-milltailings)andinpartfromdifferentassumptionsabouttheeffectsofexposuretolow-doseradiation.Thebiggestuncertainties,however,relatetotheprobabilitiesandconsequencesoflargeaccidentsatreactors,atreprocessingplantsandinthetransportofwastes.10.同樣，核反響堆對于群眾健康和平安的影響亦無法確定。對此種影響的各種估測，既有來自關(guān)于反響堆選址和類型的不同觀點，又有因為核燃料反響過程(尤其是核燃料回收以及鈾選礦尾礦管理)還不完備，這些環(huán)節(jié)所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物究竟會產(chǎn)生何種影響尚無法確定；同時還有因為對于人類接觸少量核輻射所造成的后果各執(zhí)己見。然而，最大的不確定性來自核反響堆、重新加工工廠以及核廢料運輸過程中可能發(fā)生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。Altogether,therangesofestimatedhazardstopublichealthfrombothcoal-firedandnuclear-powerplantsaresowideastoextendfromnegligibletosubstantialincomparisonwithotherriskstothepopulation.Thereislittlebasis,intheseranges,forpreferringoneoftheseenergysourcesovertheother.Forboth,theverysizeoftheuncertaintyisitselfasignificantliability.11.同人類面臨的其他威脅相比，火電廠和核電廠危害群眾健康的程度究竟有多大，眾說紛紜，莫衷一是。有的人認為這種影響微缺乏道，可以忽略不計；也有人認為這種影響程度嚴重、危害巨大。無論影響大小，都沒有理由對種種能源親此疏彼。無論是核電還是火電，其對人類的危害都無法確定，這本身就是一大憾事。Oftenneglected,butnolessimportant,isthepublichealthmenacefromtraditionalfuelswidelyusedforcookingandwaterheatinginthedevelopingworld.Perhaps80percentofglobalexposuretoparticulateairpollutionoccursindoorsindevelopingcountries,wherethesmokefromprimitivestovesisheavilyladenwithdangeroushydrocarbons.Adisproportionateshareofthisburdenisborne,moreover,bywomen(whodothecooking)andsmallchildren(whoindoorswiththeirmothers).12.開展中國家普遍用于做飯燒水的傳統(tǒng)燃料對群眾健康造成的危害常常不為人們所關(guān)注，但同樣十分嚴重。全球大約80%的顆?？諝馕廴緛碜蚤_展中國家的室內(nèi)燒煮，原始爐灶排出的煙氣中含有大量有害的烴〔或碳氫化合物〕，而且這種有害物質(zhì)的受害者往往是婦女〔室內(nèi)燒煮的主要承當者〕和兒童〔長時間同母親一起呆在室內(nèi)〕。Theecologicalthreatsposedbyenergysupplyareevenhardertoquantifythanthethreatstohumanhealthandsafetyfromeffluentsandaccidents.Nevertheless,enoughisknowntosuggesttheyportendevenlargerdamagetohumanwell-being.Thisdamagepotentialarisesfromthecombinationoftwocircumstances.13.同排放的廢棄物和能源設(shè)施事故對群眾健康造成的危害相比，能源利用對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的威脅更難以量化。然而，根據(jù)已有認識足以判斷這種威脅對人類健康造成的損失將會更大。這種潛在的損失是由兩種情形同時存在導致的First,civilizationdependsheavilyonservicesprovidedbyecologicalandgeophysicalprocessessuchasbuildingandfertilizingsoil,regulatingwatersupply,controllingpestsandpathogens,andmaintainingatolerableclimate;yetitlackstheknowledgeandtheresourcestoreplacenature’sserviceswithtechnology.Second,humanactivitiesarenowclearlycapableofdisruptinggloballytheprocessesthatprovidetheseservices.Energysupply,bothindustrialandtraditional,isresponsibleforastrikingshareoftheenvironmentalimpactsofhumanactivity.Theenvironmentaltransitionofthepast100years－drivenaboveallbya20-foldincreaseinfossil-fueluseandaugmentedbyatriplingintheuseoftraditionalenergyforms－h(huán)asamountedtonolessthantheemergenceofcivilizationasaglobalecologicalandgeochemicalforce.14.首先，人類文明嚴重依賴于各種生態(tài)和地球物理過程所提供的各種效勞，諸如造土培肥〔或土壤的形成與增肥〕、水源調(diào)節(jié)、病蟲害控制、適宜氣候的維持等等。但是，人類缺乏知識和資源來利用技術(shù)代替自然界所提供的各種效勞。其次，人類活動顯然能夠在全球范圍破壞提供這些效勞的進程。無論是工業(yè)能源還是傳統(tǒng)能源使用，在人類活動引起的環(huán)境問題中均占有很大比重。過去100年以來的環(huán)境巨變〔首要驅(qū)動因素是化石燃料的使用增長了20倍，同時傳統(tǒng)能源的使用增長了3倍〕，可以說無異于人類文明作為一支全球范圍內(nèi)的生態(tài)和地球化學力量的崛起過程。Ofallenvironmentalproblems,themostthreatening,andinmanyrespectsthemostintractable,isglobalclimatechange.Andthegreenhousegasesmostresponsibleforthedangerofrapidclimatechangecomelargelyfromhumanendeavorstoomassive,widespreadandcentraltothefunctioningofoursocietiestobeeasilyaltered:carbondioxide(CO2)fromdeforestationandthecombustionoffossilfuels;methanefromricepaddies,cattlegustsandtheexploitationofoilandnaturalgas;andnitrousoxidesfromfuelcombustionsandfertilizeruse.15.在諸多環(huán)境問題中，對人類威脅最大、在許多情況下卻又最讓人類無計可施的是全球氣候變化。而對氣候劇變最起作用的溫室氣體主要來自人類活動，這些活動規(guī)模之大、范圍之廣、對人類社會運轉(zhuǎn)作用之大，都無法輕易改變。這些氣體包括：由于毀林和燃燒礦物燃料所造成的二氧化碳，由秸稈、牲畜糞便和使用石油天然氣所排放的甲烷，以及由于燃料燃燒和施肥所排放的一氧化二氮。Theonlyotherexternalcostthatmightmatchthedevastatingimpactofglobalclimatechangeistheriskofcausingoraggravatinglarge-scalemilitaryconflict.Onesuchthreatisthepotentialforconflictoveraccesstopetroleumresources.Anotherthreatisthelinkbetweennuclearenergyandthespreadofnuclearweapons.TheissueishardlylesscomplexandcontroversialthanthelinkbetweenCO2andclimate;manyanalysts,includingme,thinkitisthreateningindeed.其他唯一能同全球氣候變化所造成的災難性影響相提并論的外化本錢是發(fā)生或惡化大規(guī)模軍事沖突的可能。其中潛在的威脅是為爭奪石油資源而引起的沖突。另一個威脅那么來自核能和核武器擴散之間的聯(lián)系，這種聯(lián)系的復雜性幾乎不亞于二氧化碳和氣候之間的關(guān)系。許多分析家〔包括本人〕均認為這種關(guān)系十分危險DoTrafficTicketsSaveLives?交通罰單能救命嗎？Pitythepoortrafficcop.He'sthelastguyyouwanttoseeinyourrear-viewmirrorwhenyou'respeedingdownthehighway.Whyisn'theoutlookingformurderersinsteadofnailingdriversforminorinfractionsofthelaw?哎，這可憐的交警。他是你在高速公路上疾馳時最不愿意在后視鏡里看見的人。他為什么不去抓那些殺人犯，卻在這兒為了一點兒芝麻大的交通違規(guī)對司機們窮追不舍？Well,accordingtoamajorresearchprojectbyscientistsinCanadaandCalifornia,thatcopjustmightbesavingyourlife.Orthelifeofsomeoneelse.然而,根據(jù)加拿大和加利福尼亞科學家們的一項重要研究，那位警察也許恰恰是在救你的命，或者救別的什么人的命。Theresearchershavefoundthatatrafficticketreducesadriver'schanceofbeinginvolvedinafatalaccidentbyawhopping35percent,atleastforafewweeks.Theeffectdoesn'tlastlong,however.Withinthreetofourmonths,theleadfootisbackonthepedalandtheriskofkillingyourselforsomeoneelseisbackuptowhereitwasbeforethatcopstaredyouintheeyeandwroteoutthatexpensivecitation.研究者們發(fā)現(xiàn)一張交通罰單能讓司機至少在幾周內(nèi)遭遇重大車禍的概率降低35%。似是這個作用不會持續(xù)很長。三四個月后，那只腳又會回到油門兒上去，置自己或別人于死地的危險率又和警察瞪著你開出巨額罰單前一樣高了。Thebottomline,accordingtotheresearch,publishedintheJune28issueofTheLancet,isthattrafficticketssavelives.Maybethousandsoflives,everyyear.Yettrafficlawsareenforcedsporadically,almostasifbywhim,partlybecausepeoplejustdon'tliketrafficcops,andtherearelotsofotherthingsforthegovernmenttospendmoneyonthanenforcinghighwaysafetylaws.根據(jù)6月28日發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》上的研究，最根本的一點就是交通罰單能救命，它很可能每年能救成千上萬條命。然而交通法規(guī)只是零星地被實施，就像心血來潮似的，局部原因是人們不喜歡罰單，而且除了實施髙速公路平安法，政府部門還有很多其他地方要花錢。TheGrimStatistics無情的統(tǒng)計數(shù)椐Thatattitudeneedstobechanged,accordingtoDonaldA.RedelmeieroftheUniversityofTorontoandRobertJ.TibshiraniofStanfordUniversity.Bothmenaremedicalresearchers,andthisisn'tthefirsttimethey'vetakenahardlookathighwaysafety.Their1998studycausedastirwhentheylinkedcellphoneusagetotrafficaccidents.Nowthey'reback,sayingtrafficticketsaregoodforourhealth.多倫多大學的熱德爾美爾和斯坦福大學的提波施拉尼認為這種態(tài)度需要改變。他們倆都是醫(yī)學研究者，這已不是他們第一次盯著高速公路平安問題了。他們倆1998年的研究引起了轟動，當時他們認為打與交通事故有關(guān)聯(lián)?，F(xiàn)在他們又來了，說交通罰單對我們的健康有好處。Theywereproddedintothisprojectbysomeverygrimstatistics.Eachyear,morethanamillionpersonsdieintrafficaccidentsworldwide.IfthatmanypeoplediedofSARSinayear,thepublicresponsewouldprobablyborderonhysteria,butwehavecometoaccepttrafficfatalitiesasawayoflife.他們之所以參與這個工程是受到一些殘酷無情的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的驅(qū)使。每年，全世界有100多萬人死于交通事故。如果一年內(nèi)那么多人死于非典的話，大家很可能會恐懼得發(fā)瘋了，然而我們對交通亊故死亡率卻習以為常了。Inaddition,another25millionpeoplearoundtheworldarepermanentlydisabledbytrafficaccidents,andmanyofthem—aswellasthefatalities—arechildren.另外，還有2500萬人因交通事故永遠殘廢了，而且他們當中(包括死去的)很多是孩子。TakingItEasyAfteraTicket?接到罰中處之泰然？WhenRedelmeierandTibshiraniandfellowresearcherLeonardEvanssetouttoseeiftrafficticketsreallydoanygood,theyfoundanenormousresourceintheCanadianprovinceofOntario.Thefulldrivingrecordofeverylicenseddrivertherewasmadeavailabletothem,wartsandall,givingtheresearchersahugedatabaseofmorethan10millionlicenseddrivers,8,975ofwhomwereinvolvedinafatalaccidentduringthe11-yearperiodcoveredbytheresearch,from1988through1998.當熱德爾美爾、提波施拉尼和他們的共同研究人員倫納德

?伊凡斯研究交通罰單是否真能起到好作用時，他們在加拿大的安大概省發(fā)現(xiàn)了數(shù)量巨大的司機資料。他們在那兒能看到每個有駕照的人的全部記錄，這樣他們就有了一個良莠俱存的超過一千萬個持照司機的巨大數(shù)據(jù)庫。其中8975個司機在此項研究覆蓋的1988-1998共11年中曾出過重大交通事故"Welookedatthemonthpriortoafatalaccident,andthenumberoftrafficconvictions,andthenthesamemonthintheyearbefore,"saysTibshirani,astatistician."Whatwefoundwasthattherewerefewerticketsinthemonthbeforeafatalaccidentthantherewereayearbefore,andthatsuggeststhere'saprotectiveeffectofhavingaticket."統(tǒng)計學家提波施拉尼說:“我們看了一下出重大事故前一個月的交通罰單數(shù)和前一年同一個月的罰單數(shù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)出重大事故前一個月的罰單要比前一年同一個月的罰單少，這說明罰單有保護作用。〞Inotherwords,whenthenumberofcitationswentdown,thenumberoffatalaccidentswentupthefollowingmonth,andwhenthenumberofticketswentup,thenumberoffatalaccidentsdroppedthefollowingmonth.Theanalysisshowsthatfatalaccidentsdeclinedby35percentbecauseofcitations.換言之，當罰單數(shù)下降時，重大事故率在接下來這個月就會上升；而當罰單數(shù)上升時，重大事故率在接下來這個月就會下降。分析說明罰單能使重大事故率下降35%。Apparently,peoplejustdrovemorecautiouslyfollowingatrafficcitation,butthatonlylastedamaximumoffourmonths,theresearcherssay.Afterthatbriefrespite,itwasbacktobusinessasusualformostmotorists.顯然，人們在拿到交通罰單后開車會更謹慎，但這種謹慎最長只會持續(xù)4個月。對多數(shù)司機來說，經(jīng)過這短暫的歇息，一切又都恢復到從前了。Citations’EffectsConsistent罰單的持續(xù)作用Thescientistsalsoturnedupsomesurprisingresults.科學家們還出示了一些令人吃驚的研究結(jié)果。"Mostofthecrashesdidnotinvolvealcoholandwerenotatanintersection,"theyreportintheirresearchpaper.Mostoccurredduringthesummermonthswhenthestreetsweredry(65percent)ratherthanwet(18percent)orcoveredwithsnow(17percent).“多數(shù)撞車不是因為酒后駕車，也不是發(fā)生在十字路口，〞他們在研究報告中這樣報道。多數(shù)事故發(fā)生在夏季，當時的道路枯燥〔65%〕而不濕滑〔18%〕，也沒有雪覆蓋〔17%〕。Theyalsofoundthatthe"relativeriskreductionassociatedwithtrafficconvictionswasremarkablyconsistentamongsubgroupsoflicenseddrivers,"sothesameresultsapplytowomenaswellasmen,regardlessofage,priordrivingrecord,andotherpersonaldata.他們還發(fā)現(xiàn)“在有駕照的那組司機中拿到罰單后的事故減少率的持續(xù)性是顯著的"，因此同樣的結(jié)論適用于婦女和男人，而與年齡因素、以前的駕駛記錄和其他個人資料無關(guān)。Men,however,wereinvolvedinfarmorefatalaccidentsthanwomen(73percentto27percent)andthemostaccident-proneagewasbetween30and50.Alcoholwasdetectedinonly7percentoftheaccidents.但是，男人要比女人更容易出嚴重交通亊故(73%比27%)，而且最容易出事故的年齡是在30-50歲之間。酒后駕車只占事故的7%。Theresearchersalsoaddressedthecommonlyheldbeliefthattrafficcitationscausemoreaccidentsthantheypreventbecausesomanypeoplearekilledduringpolicechases.Theyfoundthatonly24deathscouldbelinkedtowritingcitationsduringthe11-yearperiod.Thatincluded17suspects,fivebystandersandtwopoliceofficers."Thetypicalsuspectwhodiedwasa26-year-oldmanpursuedbypoliceafterfleeingaspotcheckforalcoholoraspeedingviolation,"theyreport.Thetwopoliceofficerswerekilledinseparateeventswhentheywerehitbyacarwhilewritingaticketforanothermotorist.研究者們還澄清了一種普遍的想法：交通罰單引起的交通事故比防止的多，因為很多人是在警察追他們時喪生的。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)在過去的11年中只有24起死亡事故和罰單有關(guān)，這包括17個被追的司機、5個路人和2位警察。

“最典型的一例是一個26歲的男子，因想逃避酒精和超速違規(guī)的現(xiàn)場檢查而被警察窮追不舍，〞他們報告說。有2位警察死于與這互不相關(guān)的事件中，當時他們正在給另一個摩托車駕駛員開罰單。WhoReallyPays?到底誰付出代價？Theresearchersadmitthereareafewgapsintheirfindings.ThestatisticsdonotincludeOntariodriverswhomayhavebeeninvolvedinafatalaccidentsomewhereoutsidethatprovince.Norcantheysaythateverytrafficticketleadstoareductioninaccidents.Butthestatisticssuggestacorrelationbetweenthenumberofcitationsandthenumberoffatalities.研究者們成認在他們的研究中有一些漏洞。統(tǒng)計數(shù)字不包括有可能在省外某地出嚴重交通事故的安大概省司機。他們也不能說每張交通罰單都能降低事故率。但是數(shù)據(jù)顯示交通罰單的數(shù)量和死亡率之間呈相關(guān)性。Theyalsopointoutthattheinnocentareoftenmadetopaythepriceforcarelessdrivers.他們還指出為粗心大意的司機付出代價的經(jīng)常是那些無辜受害者。"Unlikeothercommondiseases,thevictimsareoftenyoungandneedsignificantsubsequentcarefordecades.Mostcrashesareunintended,unexpected,andcouldhavebeenpreventedbyasmalldifferenceindriverbehavior."“和其他常見病不一樣，受害人通常很年輕，需要以后幾十年連續(xù)不斷的照顧。大多數(shù)事故是無意的，意料之外的，只要司機在駕駛上稍有不同就能防止。〞

Sothenexttimeyouseethatcopinyourrear-viewmirror,givehim,orher,abroadsmile.因此下次你要是在后視鏡里看見那位警察，一定要對他/她熱情微笑。Yeah,right.HisPolitenessIsHerPowerlessnessDeborahTannenTherearemanydifferentkindsofevidencethatwomenandmenarejudgeddifferentlyeveniftheytalkthesameway.Thistendencymakesmischiefindiscussionsofwomen,menandpower.Ifalinguisticstrategyisusedbyawoman,itisseenaspowerless