工作中的技術(shù)：全球化的第三階段+Technology+at+Work：The+Third+Phase+of+Globalization

TECHNOLOGYATWORKv7.0

TheThirdPhaseofGlobalization

CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&Solutions

October2023

Citiisoneoftheworld’slargestfinancialinstitutions,operatinginallmajorestablishedandemergingmarkets.Acrosstheseworldmarkets,ouremployeesconduct

anongoingmulti-disciplinaryconversation–accessinginformation,analyzingdata,developinginsights,andformulatingadvice.Asourpremierthoughtleadership

product,CitiGPSisdesignedtohelpourreadersnavigatetheglobaleconomy’smostdemandingchallengesandtoanticipatefuturethemesandtrendsinafast-changingand

interconnectedworld.CitiGPSaccessesthebestelementsofourglobalconversationandharveststhethoughtleadershipofawiderangeofseniorprofessionals

acrossourfirm.Thisisnotaresearchreportanddoesnotconstituteadviceoninvestmentsorasolicitationstobuyorsellanyfinancialinstruments.

FormoreinformationonCitiGPS,pleasevisitourwebsiteat/citigps.

CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&SolutionsOctober2023

PrimaryAuthors

CarlBenediktFrey

CarlistheDieterSchwarzAssociateProfessorofAI&WorkattheOxfordInternetInstituteandaFellowofMansfieldCollege,UniversityofOxford.HeisalsoDirectoroftheFutureofWorkProgrammeandOxfordMartinCitiFellowattheOxfordMartinSchool.In2016,Freyco-authored“TheFutureofEmployment:HowSusceptibleAreJobstoComputerization.”Hisacademicworkhasfeaturedinover100mediaoutlets,

includingTheEconomist,NewYorkTimes,TimeMagazine,TheNewYorker,LeMonde,andFrankfurterAllgemeineZeitung.Inaddition,hehasfrequentlyappearedinternationalbroadcastmediasuchasCNN,BBC,PBSNewsHour,AlJazeera,andSkyNews.Hismostrecentbook,TheTechnologyTrap:Capital,Labor,andPowerintheAgeofAutomation,wasselectedaFinancialTimesBestBooksoftheYearin

2019,whenitalsowonPrincetonUniversity’sprestigiousRichardA.LesterPrize.

carl.frey@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

RobertGarlick

RobGarlickisaManagingDirectorandistheHeadofInnovation,Technology,andtheFutureofWorkatCitiGlobalInsights.With30yearsofInvestmentBankingexperience,Robwaspreviously:HeadofCitiResearchEMEA,GlobalProductHeadatCitiResearch,ranCiti'sU.S.EquitySalesdeskintheUK

servicingsomeoftheworld’sleadingassetmanagersandhedgefunds,atopMediaGlobalSpecialistsalesperson,andaU.S.equityFundManageratSinger&Friedlander.

+44-20-7986-3547|robert.j.garlick@

HelenHKrause

HelenisaManagingDirectorandHeadofDataScienceInsightsatCitiGlobalDataInsights.PrevioustoCiti,HelenwasanExecutiveDirectorinAlternativeInvestmentatMorganStanleyandaSeniorPortfolioManageratBlackRock.ShehasanMScinEconomicsandFinancefromUniversityofWarwickandanMScinMathematicalTradingandFinancefromCassBusinessSchool.

+44-20-7986-8653|helen.krause@

BrianYeung

BrianisaVicePresidentandafoundingDataScientistatCitiGlobalDataInsights.Brian’sworkfocusesondevelopingdatascience-driveninvestmentinsightsbyleveragingalternativedata,andhehasled

variousprojectsincludingemploymentandworkforcedynamics,supplychainresilience,andconsumer

creditcardspendanalysis.HeholdsanMScinDataSciencefromUniversityCollegeLondonandaBScinMathematicsfromImperialCollegeLondon.

+44-20-7986-8692|brian.yeung@

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KathleenBoyle,CFA

ManagingEditor,CitiGPS

TECHNOLOGYATWORKv7.0

TheThirdPhaseofGlobalization

Tryingtopredictfuturetrendsandidentifynewtechnologiesthatwilltrulybe

disruptivecanbebothchallengingandrewarding.Itcanalsobeincredibly

humbling.Gettingthetrendrightisonlyhalfthebattle.The“youdon’tknowwhatyoudon’tknow”iswherethingscangetalittleupsidedown.

Ourveryfirst

TechnologyatWork

CitiGPSreportwasbasedonaseminalreportfromCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelOsbournethatpredicted47%ofU.S.jobs

weresusceptibletoautomationoverthecomingdecades.Therationalewasthat

non-routinemanualtaskswereincreasinglyabletobeautomated,andforthefirsttime,low-skillandlow-incomejobswereatriskofautomation.Lowerautomationriskwasattributedtojobsthatwereintensiveinsocialandcreativeskills.Wedid

alsonotethatagrowingshareofofficeandadministrationsupportjobswouldsoonbesubjecttoautomationasadvancesinbigdatacontinued.

WestillthinkautomationwillcontinuetoaffectU.S.jobsandmayimpactevenmoresectorsasrecentdevelopmentsinartificialintelligencetakeshape.Buthereis

whereourpredictionsmissedsomethingand“wedidn’tknowwhatwedidn’tknow”:TheCOVID-19pandemicbroughtwithitarushofnewtechnologythatenabled

workerstoworkfromhomewhileofficeswereclosed.Andwhiletheseadvanceswerecrucialtoworkersmaintainingproductivityfromremotelocations,itledtoarealization:Ifajobcouldbedoneremotely,itcouldbedoneanywhere.

Corporatesinindustriesliketechnology,whichwerehistoricallyclusteredinlargecities,cannowmoveoutofhigh-pricedcitycenterstolower-costsecondaryhubs.Initially,thisshouldleadtoadeclineineconomicdisparitiesbetweenregions.Asskilledprofessionalsfollowtheircompaniestolower-costareas,servicejobsarecreatedintheirnewlocations,andunskilledworkerswhohavebeenbattlingthe

highcostofurbanhousingcanfollow.

Butthisshiftmaybeshort-lived.Ifajobcanbedoneinalower-costregionofthe

country,itcanalsobesentoffshore.Similartowhathappenedinmanufacturing

decadesago,insteadofmovingajobtoasecondaryhub,corporatesmaydecidetotakeadvantageoftheglobalwagearbitrageinprofessionaljobsandmovejobs

outsidethecountry.

Whatcanbedonetoavoidthelossofjobs?Policymakersinadvancedeconomies

shouldfocusonsupportingscienceandeducation.Remotetechnologyboostscollaborationatadistance,whichisleadingtoincreasedinnovationand

breakthroughscience.This,inturn,canleadtonewjobcreation.

Asweabsorbthisnewinformation,wewillkeeptryingtopredictthefutureandidentifythenextdisruptiveinnovation.Aswekeeplearningfromexperience,hopefullywewillgethitwithfewer“don’tknows.”

AVERAGEANNUALSALARYFORGOOGLEENGINEERSACROSSCITIES(US$,‘000s)

SHANGHAI$35.3

TOKYO$30.8

MOSCOW$12.2

NEWDELHI$8.0

CAIRO$7.7

MANILA$6.0

LAHOREANDRAWALPINDI$3.1

$128.3

$86.4

$58.8

$53.7

$50.8

NEWYORKCITY

TORONTO

FRANKFURT

SYDNEY

LONDON

Source:LinkUp

PARIS

SINGAPORE

HONGKONG

$48.9

$39.7

$38.3

RemoteWorkProductivityand

CollaborationRising

CHARTINGTHERISEOFREMOTEWORKGLOBALLY

Toanalyzetheremoteworkrevolution,wecollecteddataonglobaljobpostingsfromLinkUpfor70oftheworld’slargestcities,spanningsixcontinents,sincetheonsetofthepandemic.Theincreaseinremoteworkisbroad-basedacrossarangeofprofessions.Therewasarobustrelationshipbetweentheincreaseinremoteworkandcitieswithalowercostofliving.

TOP10OCCUPATIONSBYREMOTEWORKSHARE2021

Source:LinkUp

6.9%

12.0%

8.2%

5.9%

10.0%

CounselorsandSocialWorkers

Mediaand

Communication

Education,TrainingandLibrary

PostsecondaryTeachers

PersonalCareand

ServicesSupervisors

4.5%

4.8%

5.7%

5.8%

4.6%

Legal

Support

Financial

Specialists

AdministrativeAssistants

BusinessOperationsSpecialists

Lawyers

andJudges

Pre-2019

Post-2021

%change

THEGLOBALWAGEARBITRAGE

Overthecourseofthe20thcentury,manufacturingjobsgradually

diffusedfromdevelopedtoemergingmarketswherelaborwas

cheaper.Asimilarprocessisnowplayingoutintechnologyand

services.Goingforward,competitionfortalentaroundtheworldwill

likelyintensifywithaglobalwagearbitragedevelopingforskilled

workersasremoteworkincreasinglybecomesanoption.Ifajobcan

bedoneremotely,itcouldalsobedoneoffshore.

MeasureofDisruptiveness

THE2010sSAWREMOTETEAMSBECOMEMORELIKELYTOMAKEBREAKTHROUGHDISCOVERIES

Source:FreyandPresidente(2022)

Revivalofdisruptivescienceandfasterproductivitygrowth

TECHNOLOGYANDREMOTECOLLABORATION

Astheproliferationoftheinternetdroveanincreaseinremotecollaborationscientistsbecamemorefocusedonincrementalimprovementsratherthanthekindofbreakthroughtechnologiesthatopenupnewavenuesforprogress.However,newcollaborationtechnologyintroducedinthe2010screatedaturningpointwhereremoteteamsbecamemorelikelytoproducebreakthroughdiscoveriesrelativetotheironsitecounterparts.Thepromiseofremotecollaborationisthatconnectingdifferentlocalknowledgenetworksincreasestheinnovatingpotentialofthe“collectivebrain.”

.02

.01

0

-.01

-.02

-.03

1980s1990s2000-20102010-20152015-2020

IMPLICATIONSOFREMOTEWORK

Jobcreationsincethecomputerrevolutionofthe1980shasbeenhighlyconcentratedtoafewsuperstarcities.Theresulthasbeenamarkedincreaseinregionalinequality.However,asurgeincollaborativetechnologyduringthepandemicisfacilitatingremoteworkasjobsshifttosecondaryhubsandlocationswherehousingandlaborischeaper.Theimplicationsofthisnewgeographyofworkinclude:

Intensificationof

competitionfortalentaroundtheworld

Increaseintotalwelfarefor

theaverageworkervialower

cost-of-livingandlesscommuting

Costsavingsfor

employersonofficespaceandtravelexpenses

Reductioninregionalinequalitywithin

countries

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Contents

Introduction

7

TheNewGeographyofWork

10

WhenJobsDisappear

11

SiliconValley:TheNextDetroit?

12

HowJobsDiffuse

14

TheCost-of-LivingCrisis

15

EscapingtheCity

17

TheHousingDilemma

21

LevelingUp?

23

ChartingtheRiseofRemoteGlobally

26

TheGlobalArbitrage

27

TheCollectiveBrain

29

ImplicationsfortheThirdPhaseofGlobalization

32

ImplicationsforGeographyandGlobalization

32

ImplicationsforMedium-TermInflationPerformance

34

ImplicationsforManagement

36

ImplicationsforProductivityandInnovation

36

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Introduction

Skepticsoftheremoteworkrevolutiontendtopointtothe1990s.TheWebhadjustarrived,emailhadjustarrived,andpunditsandacademicswidelypredictedtheendoftheofficeandthedeathofcities.ThesepredictionsculminatedintheNewYorkTimescolumnistThomasFriedman’swidelycitedbook,publishedin2005,

proclaimingthatTheWorldIsFlat.Finally,peoplecouldsavetheircommutestoworkandmovetoplaceswherehousingwascheaper,eliminatingregional

inequalitiesintheprocess,orsoitwaswidelybelieved.

However,until2020,bothofficesandcitiesremainedremarkablyresilient.Infact,urbanizationcontinuedandevenacceleratedinmanypartsoftheworld.Andinsimilarspirit,companieslikeGooglespentenormousamountsonmakingthe

workplacemoreattractivebeforetellingitsemployeestostayremoteuntilthesummerof2021,leavingitsnewGoogleplexstandingempty.

Ittookapandemicforremoteworktotakeoff.AswedocumentedinTechnologyatWork5.0,between2000and2018,theshareofpeopleworkingfromhomeintheEuropeanUnionhoveredbelow6percent,withnoclearupwardtrajectoryinmostcountries.Then,suddenly,inthesummerof2020,thepercentageoffulldays

workedfromhomeintheU.S.reached60percent.By2023,asthepandemic

subsided,thisfigurecamedowntoaround30percent,whereithasstabilized,yettheshiftfromthepre-COVIDeraisstilldramatic

(Figure1)

.1

Figure1.PercentageofFullDaysWorkedfromHomeintheU.S.overTime

Copyright2022byJoseMariaBarrero,NicholasBloom,andStevenJ.Davis.Thedatainthis.csvfilearemadeavailableundertheCC-BY4.0license

/licenses/by/4.0.1965

-1975usesdatafromAmericanHeritageTimeUseStudy(AHTUS).1980-2019usesdatafromAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS).

May2020-presentusesdatafromU.S.SurveyofWorkingArrangementsandAttitudes(SWAA).

Source:Barrero,Bloom,andDavis(2021)

1JoseMariaBarrero,NicholasBloom,andStevenJ.Davis,“WhyWorkingfromHomeWillStick,”NationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER),WorkingPaperNo.28731,April2021.

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Meanwhile,intheU.K.,datapublishedbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)

revealasimilartrend:Theshareoftheworkingpopulationplanningtoworkmostlyfromhomerose12percentagepointsbetweenApril2021andFebruary2022,while38%ofworkingadultsreportedhavingworkedfromhomeatsomepointoverthepastsevendaysinMay2022.Forcomparison,beforetheCOVID-19pandemic,

onlyoneineightadultsreportedworkingfromhomeinpreviousweek.2Otherdata,exploringtheshareofjobpostingsthatofferhybridorremotework,revealasimilarpicture:IntheUK,thispercentageincreasedfrombelow4percentin2020to

around18percentin2023.TheU.S.,Australia,NewZealand,andCanadasawsimilartrajectories.3

Asweallknow,theconsequencesoftheCOVID-19pandemichavebeenfar-

reaching.The“GreatResignation,”the“ZoomRevolution,”supplychaindisruptions,andrampantinflationarejustsomeofitslegacies.Peoplehavebeenquittingtheirjobsatrecordrates,theyaremovingoutofcitiesinsearchofnewopportunities,

andtheyarechangingtheirbuyinghabits.Giventheunevennessofeconomic

growthandjobcreationinrecentyears—withtechhubsflourishing,whilerustbeltregionshavefallenfurtherbehind—someofthischangeiscertainlywelcome.Afterdecadesofrisingregionalinequalities,acorrectionisfinallyunderway.Asweshallsee,ruralareasandlow-costcitieshavebeenclosingthegapinnewjobcreation,

whiletechjobsaremovingoutfromexpensiveinnovationhubs.

Thepotentialforremoteworkmeansthatcash-strappedfamiliesarenowabletoescapethemetropolis,wherethecost-of-livingcriseshasbecomeparticularly

severe.Butthistrendmightbeshort-lived.Foronething,ifajobcanbedone

remotely,itcanalsobeoffshored,meaningthatregionalconvergenceinadvancedeconomiesmightbeshort-lived.Towhatextentthiswillhappen,remainsanopenempiricalquestion.

Toshedsomelightontheseissues,thisreporttakesadata-drivenapproachto

assessrecentandongoingtrendsinthegeographyofworkaroundtheworld.

Specifically,toexplorethepaceandshapeofrecentemploymenttrends,our

analysistracksjobpostingsdatafromacrosssomeofthelargestmetropolitan

areasglobally,beforeandaftertheCOVID-19pandemic.Doingso,wedocumentamarkedupsurgeofjobpostingsmentioningopportunitiesforremoteworkin

general,andinparticular,inplaceswherethecost-of-livingisrelativelyhigh.

Whilethisshouldservetoalleviatesomeofthehousingpressuresinthemost

expensivecities,companiesmaygraduallyclawbacksomeofthosebenefitsto

employeesbyintroducingliving-costadjustmentstopeople’ssalaries,thereby

reducingtheincomesofthosemovingfurtherawayfromtheofficewherehousingis

cheaper.Andovertime,companiesmightevenmovejobsabroadtotake

advantageofvastpoolsofcheaplaborinthedevelopingworld.Examiningwage

differentialsacrosscountries,wenotethattheopportunitiesforwagearbitragearehugegoingforward.Thegoodnewsisthatdevelopingcountries—whosegrowthprospectshavebeenhamperedby“prematuredeindustrialization”—mightfindthatprofessionalservicesarebecomingthenewescalatortoprosperity,reducingglobalinequalitiesbetweencountriesintheprocess.

2UKOfficeofNationalStatistics,“IsHybridWorkingHeretoStay?,”May23,2022.

3StephenHansenetal.,RemoteWorkAcrossJobs,Companies,andSpace,NationalBureauofEconomicResearchWorkingPaper31007,March2023.

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Aswewillsee,whilethefirstwaveofglobalizationwasunleashedbytransportationtechnologieslikesteamshipsandrailroadsinthe19thcentury,allowingtheWesttoexportitsproductstotherestoftheworld,asecondphaseofglobalizationbeganinthe1990s,asfirmsbegantooffshoremanufacturingjobstoEastAsiaenmasse.4Wearenowenteringathirdphaseofglobalizationbasedontradeinservices,as

remoteworktechnologiesarebecomingincreasinglygoodsubstitutesforface-to-faceinteraction.

Tobesure,notalljobscanbedoneremotely.Andeveniftheycan,itdoesnot

followthattheyshouldbe.Forexample,geolocationdataonAppleandGoogle

workersshowsthattheyaremostlikelytoencountereachotheraroundthe

workplace.Andaback-of-the-envelopecalculationsuggeststhatifonequarterofofficeworkersintheBayAreaworkedfromhome,face-to-facemeetingswouldfallby17%,reducingknowledgeflowsintheregion.5

Aremainingdrawbackwiththevirtualworldisthatitdoesnotfacilitatesporadicencounters.However,asthisreportwilldemonstrate,recentimprovementsin

remoteworktechnologyhavemadeitmucheasierevenforscientistsand

innovatorstocollaborateatdistance.Drawinguponanoveldatasetofover10

millionscientificcollaborationsbetween1961and2020,weshowthatwearealsolearningtodoremoteworkininnovationandscientificdiscovery.Againstthis

backdrop,wearguethatarevivalofbreakthroughscienceseemslikelyandcouldreversetheproductivitystagnationofrecentdecades.

4RichardBaldwin,TheGreatConvergence:InformationTechnologyandtheNewGlobalization(HarvardUniversityPress,2016).

5DavidAtkin,M.KeithChen,andAntonPopov,“TheReturnstoFace-to-Face

interactions:KnowledgeSpilloversinSiliconValley,”NBER,WorkingPaperNo.30147,June2022.

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TheNewGeographyofWork

Muchlikeinthe1990s,economistsarenowdebatinghowtheriseofremoteworkwillchangethegeographyofjobsandshapethefatesofcities.Ononeendofthespectrum,PaulKrugmanthinksthat“thebestbetisthatlifeandworkin,say,2023willlookalotlikelifeandworkin2019,butabitlessso.Wemaycommutetotheofficelessthanweusedto;theremaywellbeaglutofurbanofficespace.Butmostofuswon’tbeabletostayveryfarfromthemaddingcrowd.”6

Othersseemoresweepingchangesahead.AccordingtoRichardBaldwin,the

remoteworkrevolutionmightpromptanotherwaveofoffshoringascompaniestakeadvantageofservicesbecomingmoretradableandthefactthatcountrieslikeIndiahavelargepoolsofcheap,skilled,andEnglish-speakingworkers.7

Aquestionthatemergesisthis:ifmanyprofessionalservicejobsendupoffshore,orindeedinthehinterland,wherelaborandhousingischeaper,whathappensto

thebillionsofdollarsofinvestmentthathasgoneintobuildingskyscrapersand

urbaninfrastructure,likeelectricitygrids,transit,andsewagesystems?Andwhat

happenstotheenormoussumsthathavebeenspentonnewcorporatecampuses?Indeed,inrecentyears,companieslikeAmazon,Apple,Facebook,andGoogle

haveallhiredleadingarchitectstodesignofficeandoutdoorspacestoteardownthe“wallsthatoftenseparatework,socializing,wellness,andcreativity.”8Whenthe175-acreCupertinocampus,knownasApplePark,openedin2017,forexample,ithadcost$5billionandhad12,000peopleworkingthere.9

Theriseofremotewillhaveconsequenceswellbeyondtechnologycompaniesandprofessionalservices,however.Whenpeopledonotcomeintotheoffice,other

complementaryservicestakeahitaswell.Forexample,PretAMangerwasforcedtoclose30storesandcut1,000jobsintheU.K.duringthepandemic,asfewer

commutestoworkmeantfewercustomers.10Andwhenjobsdisappear,thedemandforresidentialhousingisreducedaswell.Asshownin

Figure2,

therehasbeenamarkedincreaseinremoteworkacrossU.S.awiderangeofgeographies.The

figureshowsthepercentageofpeoplereportinghavingworkedfromhomeduringthepreviousweek.Insomecities,likeWashingtonDC,FremontCity,California,andBethesda,Maryland,almost50%ofthepopulationreportedhavingworkedfromhomein2021—anastonishingfigurecomparedtopre-pandemic.

6PaulKrugman,“ThePandemicandtheFutureCity,”NewYorkTimes,March15,2021.7RichardBaldwin,TheGloboticsUpheaval:Globalization,Robotics,andtheFutureofWork(London,OxfordUniversityPress,2019).

8MatthewE.Kahn,GoingRemote:HowtheFlexibleWorkEconomyCanImproveOurLivesandOurCities(UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2022)pp.2-3.

9AnitaBalakrishnan,“Apple’sNewHeadquartersWillReflectSteveJobs’sDesiretoReplicatetheOutdoors,”CNBC,May17,2017.

10RebeccaSmithers,“PretaMangertoClose30StoresandCouldCutMorethan1,000Jobs,”TheGuardian,July6,2020.

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Figure2.PercentageofAmericansReportingHavingWorkedfromHomeDuringthePreviousWeek

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey(2015-2021)

WhenJobsDisappear

Historytellsusthatwhenjobsdryup,entirecitiescanfallintodisrepair.InAmerica,ClevelandandPittsburgharesmallertodaythantheywereinthe1930s,asis

LiverpoolinEngland.HowthewrenchingofindustriescanleavealastingmarkoncommunitiesinthemodernworldiscapturedbythefilmTheFullMonty(1997),

whichfollowsthedown-and-outsteelworkersinSheffieldlookingtoescape

unemploymentwhoturntoamalerevueshowindesperation.Butwhatmakesgoodcomedyisinreallifeaterriblethingtowatch.WhentheeconomistsEricGould,

BruceWeinberg,andDavidMustardstudiedtherelationshipbetweenvanishing

jobsandcriminaloffenses,theyfoundtheformertohavecausedlargeincreasesinpropertycrime.11Inaddition,thereisevidencethatimportcompetitionfromChinahasdisruptedthejobprospectsofyoungmen,madethemlessmarriageable,andincreasedtheirlikelihoodofexperiencinganearlydeath.12

11E.D.Gould,B.A.Weinberg,andD.B.Mustard,2002,“CrimeRatesandLocalLaborMarketOpportunitiesintheUnitedStates:1979–1997,”ReviewofEconomicsand

Statistics,Vol.84,No.1,February2002.

12DavidH.Autor,DavidDorn,andGordonHanson,“WhenWorkDisappears:

ManufacturingDeclineandtheFallingMarriageMarketValueofYoungMen,”AmericanEconomicReview:Insights,Vol.1,No.2,September2019.

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ConsiderPennsylvaniawhichsawmanyplantscloseordownsizeduringthe

recessionoftheearly1980s.Evensixyearsafterpeoplelosttheirjobs,their

incomelosseswerestillmorethan40percent.13Butlayoffsdidnotjustaffect

workers’earnings.Again,theoneswhosawtheirjobsdisappearexperienceduptoa100percentincreaseinshort-termmortalityratesafterbeinglaidoff.14

Theconsequenceoffalteringemploymentprospectsisoftenaviciouscycle.As

jobsarelost,crimeincreasesandlocaltaxbasesfall,promptingcitiestoraisetaxesandcutspendingonpolice,schools,andhealthcare.Hence,unemploymentand

crimebecomesolidified,publicinfrastructuredeteriorates,andnewcompaniesstayaway,leadingevenmorepeopletoleave.

SiliconValley:TheNextDetroit?

Iswhathappenedtomanufacturingandminingcitiesinthepastnowalso

happeningtotechnologyhubs?Writinginthe1970s,thefuturistAlvinToffler

suggestedthattheworldwasatthecuspofathirdwave.Thefirst“wave”hadbeenlaunchedwiththeagriculturalrevolutionsome10,000yearsagoandwasfollowedbyasecondwavewhichtookoffwiththeIndustrialRevolution.Butthethirdwave,heargued,wouldbeevenmoretransformational.Itwouldbringabout“thedeathofindustrialism”andestablishanewinformationage.This,inturn,wouldcreatea

“newraceofnomads”andturntheworldintoone“globalvillage.”15

Figure3.U.S.GeographicMobilityOverTime

Source:CitiGPS,U.S.CensusBureau,CurrentPopulationSurvey,AnnualSocialandEconomicSupplement

1948-2021,

/library/visualizations/time

-series/demo/historic.html

13LouiseS.Jacobson,RobertJ.LaLonde,andDanielG.Sullivan,1993,“Earnings

LossesofDisplacedWorkers,”AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.83,No.4,September1993.

14DanielSullivanandTillVonWachter,“JobDisplacementandMortality:AnAnalysisUsingAdministrativeData,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,Vol.124,No.3,August2009.

15AlvinToffler,FutureShock(London,BantamBooks,1970).

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Computerizationdidcertainlyradicallychangethewayweliveandwork.Butsofar,severalofToffler’spredictionshavenotheldupwellagainsttheevidence.Foronething,therearestillfewdigitalnomads.Infact,geographicmobilityintheUnited

StatestodayislowerthaniteverhasbeensincetheendofWorl