Analysis(財務報表分析,臺灣中興大學)

ProfitabilityAnalysis9CHAPTERMcGraw-Hill/Irwin?2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.AnalyzingProfitabilityFocusofProfitabilityAnalysis

Profitabilityanalysisisakeypartof financialstatementanalysis

Allfinancialstatementsarepertinentto profitabilityanalysis

Emphasisofprofitabilityanalysisisonthe incomestatementAnalyzingProfitabilityFocusofProfitabilityAnalysisProfitabilityanalysishelpsaddressquestionssuchas: Whatisacompany’srelevantincomemeasure? Whatisthequalityofincome? Whatincomecomponentsareimportantfor forecasting? Howpersistentareincomeanditscomponents? Whatisacompany’searningpower?AnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncomeIncomeisdefinedasrevenueslessexpensesoverareportingperiodThisdefinitiondoesnotyieldauniqueamountbecauseof:

EstimationIssues

AccountingMethods

IncentivesforDisclosure

DiversityacrossUsersAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--EstimationIssuesIncomemeasurementdependsonestimatesoffutureeventsTheseestimatesrequire:?Useofjudgmentandprobabilities?Allocationsofrevenuesandexpensesacrossperiods?Predictionofthefutureusefulnessofmanyassets?ForecastsoffutureobligationsAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--EstimationIssuesManagementdiscretionispartofincomemeasurementEstimatesofskilledandexperiencedprofessionals

Someconsensus(lessvariability)AnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--AccountingMethodsProfessionalexperienceRegulatoryagendasBusinesshappeningsAcademicresearchSocialInfluencesPoliticalpressuresAccountingstandardsgoverningincomemeasurementAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--AccountingMethodsMethodsreflecttheoutcomeofnumerousfactors,includingcompromisesDiscretionispermittedtoaccommodatedifferentbusinesscircumstancesMethodsgearedtoward“general-purpose”financialstatementsAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--IncentivesforDisclosureIdeally:

Financialstatementsfairlypresenttransactionsand events

Accountingisneutral—notaffectinghow transactionsandeventsareperceived

Methodschosenthataremostapplicabletothe circumstances

Relevantinformationisdisclosed—favorableand unfavorableAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--IncentivesforDisclosureReality:

Eachofuspossessopinions--weseetheworldfromdifferent perspectives

Managersbringstrongviewstothetable

Managersfeelpressuresofcompetitionandsociety

Directorsexpectresults

Shareholdersconcentrateonthebottomline

Creditorswantsafeguards

Financialanalystsdislikesurprises

Accountingpreparersandauditorsdemandacceptable practicesAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--IncentivesforDisclosureResult:“Acceptable”methods,notnecessarily“appropriate”methodsAnalyzingProfitabilityMeasuringIncome--DiversityAcrossUsers? Financialstatementsaregeneral?purposereports servingdiverseneedsofmanyusers? Diversityofviewsimpliesananalysisusesincome asaninitialmeasureofprofitability? Useavailableinformationadjustincome measurementconsistentwithone’sobjectivesAnalyzingRevenuesTwo-PhaseAnalysisofIncomeAnalysisofincomeanditscomponentsinvolvestwophases1.AnalysisofaccountinganditsmeasurementsPurpose:Toapplyknowledgeofaccountingtoyieldameasureofincome,anditscomponents,consistentwiththeanalysisobjectives2.Applyinganalysistoolstoincome(anditscomponents)and interpretingtheanalyticalresultsPurpose:Toapplyanalysistoolstoaidachievetheanalysisobjectives—suchasincomeforecastingandestimatingearningpowerAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesAnalysisofrevenues(sales)helpsaddressquestionssuchas:

Whatarethemajorsourcesofrevenue?

Howpersistentarerevenuesources?

Howarerevenues,receivables,andinventories related?

Whenisrevenuerecorded?

Howisrevenuemeasured?AnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSources

Knowledgeofmajorsourcesofrevenuesisimportant toprofitabilityanalysis

Eachmarketandproductlineoftenhasitsowngrowth pattern,profitability,andfuturepotential

Common-sizeanalysisofrevenuesshowsthepercent ofeachmajorclassofrevenuetoitstotal

Graphicalanalysisisausefultooltointerpretthe sourcesofrevenuesAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesDiversifiedCompaniespresentspecialchallenges? Differentsegmentsusuallyexperiencevaryingratesof profitability,risk,andgrowth? Assetcompositionandfinancingrequirementsofsegments often vary? Evaluation,projection,andvaluationofincomeisaidedby segmentanalysis? Segmentssharecharacteristicsofvariability,growth,andrisk? Incomeforecastingbenefitsfromforecastsbysegments? MustseparateandinterprettheimpactofindividualsegmentsAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesFulldisclosurebysegmentsisrarebecauseof:? Difficultiesinseparatingsegments? Management’sreluctancetoreleaseinformation thatcanharmitscompetitivepositionAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesReportingrequirementsexistfor: ?Industrysegments ?Internationalactivities ?Exportsales ?MajorcustomersGAAPAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesReportingrequirementsconsiderasegmentsignificantifitssales,operatingincome,oridentifiableassetscomprise10percentormoreoftheirrelevanttotalsNotes:Combinedsalesofallsegmentsreportedmustbeatleast75percentofthecompany’stotalsalesTensegmentsisviewedasapracticallimitonthenumberofsegmentsreportedGAAPAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesInformationdisclosedforeachsegment:(1) sales—bothintersegmentandtounaffiliated customers(2) operatingincome—revenueslessoperating expenses(3) identifiableassets(4) capitalexpenditures(5) depreciation,depletion,andamortizationSimilardisclosuresarerequiredforinternationaloperationsandexportsales(exceptcapitalexpendituresanddepreciation)

Revenuesfromasinglecustomeraredisclosediftheycomprise10percentormoreoftotalrevenuesAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesLimitationsofsegmentdata:? Difficulttodefinesegments? Arbitraryallocationsofcosts acrosssegmentsAnalyzingRevenuesRevenueSourcesUsefulapplicationsofsegmentdatainclude:

Analysisofsalesgrowth

Analysisofassetgrowth

AnalysisofprofitabilityPersistence(stabilityandtrend)ofrevenuesisimportanttoprofitabilityanalysisAnalysistoolsforassessingpersistenceinrevenuesinclude:(1) trendpercentanalysis(2) evaluationofManagement’sDiscussionand AnalysisAnalyzingRevenuesPersistenceofRevenuesRevenuesforapriorperiodaresetequalto100percentRevenuesforotherperiodsarecomparedtoitRevenuetrendsbysegmentsareoften: Correlated Comparedtoindustrynorms ComparedtocompetitorsAnalyzingRevenuesPersistenceofRevenues--TrendPercentAnalysisOtherrelatedmeasures:

(Auto)correlationsofrevenues acrossperiods Assesssensitivityofrevenuesto businessconditions Customeranalysis—concentration,dependence, andstability Revenues’concentrationordependenceonone segment Revenues’relianceonsalesstaff GeographicaldiversificationofmarketsAnalyzingRevenuesPersistenceofRevenues--TrendPercentAnalysisManagement’sDiscussionandAnalysis(MD&A)isoftenusefulinanalysisofpersistenceinrevenues? Aidsinunderstandingandevaluatingperiod-to-period changes? Reportonchangesinrevenuecomponents? Disclosesuncertaintiesaffectingorlikelytoaffect revenues? Explainsgrowthinrevenuestoprices,volume, inflation,ornewproductintroduction? Reportssomeforward?lookinginformation? Discussestrendsandforcesnotevidentfromfinancial statementsAnalyzingRevenuesPersistenceofRevenues--MD&ARevenuesandAccountsReceivableRelationBearson: Earningsquality CollectibilityofreceivablesAnalyzingRevenuesKeyRevenueRelationsRevenuesandInventoriesRelationBearson: Futurerevenues AnalysisofoperationsAnalyzingRevenuesKeyRevenueRelationsProfitabilityanalysismustadjustfordifferentrevenuerecognitionmethodsin:? Comparativeanalysis—bothtemporaland cross-sectional? ForecastingrevenuesChapter6discussesrevenuerecognitioncriteriaandmeasurementAnalyzingRevenuesRevenuesRecognitionAnalyzingCostsofRevenuesMeasuringGrossProfitGrossprofit,

or

grossmargin,ismeasuredasrevenueslesscostofsalesAllothercostsmustberecoveredfromgrossprofitAnyincomeearnedisthebalanceremainingafterthesecostsGrossprofitmustfinanceessentialfuture?directeddiscretionaryexpendituresMeasuringGrossProfitGrossprofitsvaryacrossindustriesdependingonfactorssuchas: ? Competition ? Capitalinvestment ? Levelofcoststhatmustbe recoveredfromgrossprofitAnalyzingCostsofRevenuesAnalyzingGrossProfitAnalysisofgrossprofitdirectsattentionatthefactorsexplainingvariationsin: ?Sales ?CostsofsalesAnalyzingCostsofRevenuesAnalyzingGrossProfitAnalysisStatementofChangesinGrossProfitStep1.

Focusonyear?to?yearchangeinvolumeassumingunit

sellingpriceisunchanged—Volumechangeis

multipliedbytheconstantunitsellingpricetoyield

changeinsalesStep 2.

Focusonyear-to-yearchangeinsellingprice

assumingvolumeisconstant--Changeinsellingprice

ismultipliedbytheconstantvolumetoyieldchangein

salesStep 3.

Focusonjointchangesinvolumeandunitprice—

Volumechangeismultipliedbythechangeinunit

sellingpricetoyieldnetchangeinsalesStep 4.

Steps1to3explainthenetchangeinsales.AnalyzingCostsofRevenuesAnalyzingGrossProfitAnalysisStatementofChangesinGrossProfit—Illustration

YearEndedDecember31 Year-to-YearChangeItem Year1 Year2 Increase Decrease1. Sales($millions) $ 657.6 $ 687.5 $ 29.92.Costofsales($millions) 237.3

245.3

8.03.Grossprofit($millions) $ 420.3 $ 442.2 $ 21.94.Unitssold(inmillions) 215.6 231.5 15.95.Salespriceperunit (1÷4) $ 3.05

$ 2.97

$ 0.086.Costperunit(2÷4) 1.10

1.06

0.04AnalyzingCostsofRevenuesAnalyzingGrossProfitAnalysisStatementofChangesinGrossProfitYear2versusYear1AnalysisofVariationinSales1. Changeinvolumeofproductssold: Changeinvolume(15.9)

Year1unitsellingprice($3.05) $ 48.52.. Changeinsellingprice: Changeinsellingprice($0.08)

Year1salesvolume(215.6) 17.2

$ 31.33. Combinedchangeinsalesvolume(15.9)andunitprice($0.08) 1.3Increaseinnetsales $ 30.0*AnalysisofVariationinCostofSales1. Changeinvolumeofproductssold:

Changeinvolume(15.9)

Year1costperunit($1.10) $ 17.52. Changeincostperunitsold:

Changeincostperunit($0.04)

Year1salesvolume(215.6) 8.6

$ 8.93. Combinedchangeinvolume(15.9)andcostperunit($0.04) 0.6Increseincostofsales $ 8.3*Netvariationingrossprofit $ 21.7**Differencesareduetorounding.AnalyzingCostsofRevenuesInterpretingChangesinGrossProfitAnalyzingCostsofRevenuesChangesingrossprofitareoftendrivenbyoneormoreofthefollowingfactors: Increaseinsalesvolume Decreaseinsalesvolume Increaseinunitsellingprice Decreaseinunitsellingprice Increaseincostperunit DecreaseincostperunitInterpretingChangesinGrossProfitAnalyzingCostsofRevenues?Identificationoffactorsdrivinggrossprofityields?Improvedbusinessstrategies?BetterassessmentoffutureperformanceToolsforAnalysisofExpensesAnalyzingExpenses

Common-sizeanalysisCommon?sizeincomestatementsexpressexpensesintermsoftheirpercentrelationwithrevenuesTracedoverseveralperiodsorcomparedwithcompetitors

IndexnumberanalysisIndexnumberanalysisofincomestatementsexpressesincomeanditscomponentsinanindexnumberrelatedtoabaseperiodHighlightsrelativechangesacrosstimeChangesinexpensesarereadilycomparedwithchangesinbothrevenuesandrelatedexpenses

OperatingratioanalysisOperatingratiomeasurestherelationbetweenoperatingexpenses(oritscomponents)andrevenuesEqualscostofgoodssoldplusotheroperatingexpensesdividedbynetrevenuesInterestandtaxesarenormallyexcludedfromthismeasureduetoitsfocusonoperatingefficiency(expensecontrol)andnotfinancingandtaxmanagementUsefulforanalysisofexpenseswithinandacrosscompaniesSellingExpensesAnalyzingExpensesAnalysisofsellingexpensesfocusesonthreeareas:

Evaluatingtherelationbetweenkeyselling expensesandrevenues Assessingbaddebtsexpense Evaluatingthetrendandproductivityof future?directedmarketingexpensesDepreciationExpenseAnalyzingExpensesRelationofdepreciationtogrossplantandequipmenthelpsrevealchangesinthecompositerateofdepreciation—thisisusefulinevaluatingdepreciationlevelsandindetectingadjustments(smoothing)toincome:ItisoftenusefultocomputethisratiobyassetcategoriesMaintenanceandRepairsExpenseAnalyzingExpensesMaintenanceandrepairsexpense: ?Varieswithinvestmentinplantandequipmentand withthelevelofproductiveactivity ?Affectcostsofsalesandotherexpenses ?Comprisebothvariableandfixedcosts ?DonotvarydirectlywithsalesMaintenanceandRepairsExpenseAnalyzingExpensesRelationofsalestomaintenanceandrepairsexpense,bothacrosscompaniesandtime,mustbeinterpretedwithcare ?Analysisandinterpretationusingthisratio ?Isenhancedifwecandistinguishbetweenvariable andfixedportionsoftheseexpenses ? Mustrecognizethediscretionarynatureofthese expenses ? Bearonproductivityandearningsquality assessments ?ImpactsassetvaluationsAmortizationofSpecialCostsAnalyzingExpensesExpenditureforspecialcostscanberelatedtoandexpressedasapercentof:(1) revenues(2) netpropertyandequipmentAmortizationofspecialcostscanberelatedtoandexpressedasapercentof:(1) revenues(2) unamortizedspecialcosts (3) netpropertyandequipmentAmortizationofSpecialCostsAnalyzingExpensesRatiosinvolvingspecialcostsareusefulin:ComparisonofannualtrendsintheserelationsAnalysisofconsistencyinincomereportingEvaluationofincomefortwoormorecompetitorsGeneralandAdministrativeExpensesAnalyzingExpenses Mostarefixed—suchasrentandsalary Tendencyforincreases,especiall