食品飲料行業(yè)23年中報回顧：白酒經(jīng)營分化食品復蘇回暖可期

調(diào)整自身，比如海天對外持續(xù)降低經(jīng)銷商庫存，伊利、飛鶴面對小品牌甩貨以穩(wěn)住價盤為第一要務(wù)，洽洽部分區(qū)域也在6月份主動放棄任務(wù)、消化堅果庫存。中報雖然有不少食品股低于預期，但能感受到部分公司在弱勢環(huán)境下加速計提實現(xiàn)業(yè)績觸底。乳制品：液奶需求復蘇，結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯。調(diào)味品：基調(diào)龍頭調(diào)整為主，復調(diào)BQ2Q2BC23H1行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)提升，次高檔以上價位帶基本實現(xiàn)15%++15.5%/+20%同比+26.4%，其中喜力銷量實現(xiàn)接近60%的亮眼增長。重慶啤酒雖然1664H1休閑食品：零食量販維持高景氣，鹵味單店恢復低于預期。借高性價比在各線城市快速擴張，當前行至半程，龍頭依然在省內(nèi)加密、省外跑馬圈地。上游零食品牌積極擁抱渠道變化，甘源、鹽津多品類、散Q2SKU20%-30%。Q21995%-96%2121速凍食品：大B復蘇強于小B，CQ2BCB（小40%20%安井主業(yè)維持穩(wěn)健增長，Q2速凍魚糜/肉制品/面米制品增速分別同比為+13.6%/+16.8%/+4.2%，BCQ2B同比70%以上，H2直營渠道高增有望延續(xù)。一年維度我們對優(yōu)秀個股信心滿滿。錨定三季報（老窖汾酒古井等高增長公司）續(xù)分化趨勢，品牌力強的企業(yè)旺季走量壓力不大，消化庫存后安全邊際更15%-30%布局絕對收益。標的推薦（半年到一年維度）：白酒繼續(xù)推薦戰(zhàn)略性配置位置（山西汾酒、五糧液、貴州茅臺、古井貢酒），彈性品種珍酒李渡、老白干酒。食品繼續(xù)推薦管理改善的中炬高新中國飛鶴H&H甘源食品等。正文目錄一、酒塊經(jīng)有分化區(qū)名業(yè)亮眼 61、Q2延高長環(huán)略有速 62、營況渠持張，利力二、品塊中加計提觸回可期 141、績顧弱蘇健經(jīng)，報速提望觸底 142、營況成壓弱，用放現(xiàn)1720四、業(yè)點司值表 21圖表目錄圖1：白板收利及增情況 6圖2：白板回及速情況 7圖3：食飲行主原材及材格18表1：白板司23Q3收利及速單：百元） 7表2：白板司22Q2-23Q2季收利9表3：白板公合負債化況單：萬元） 9表4：白板公（收賬款下季收，分季為比估） 10表5：白板公應(yīng)票據(jù)含行兌變情況單：萬） 10表6：白板公現(xiàn)回款季變化 10表7：白板公（到現(xiàn)金營收）季變化（%） 11表8：白板司23Q2毛率化（%） 12表9：白板司23Q2費率化（%） 12表10：酒塊司23Q2凈率化（%） 13表11：分酒業(yè)商體和量化14表12：眾主公司23H1與23Q2收和凈利情（元） 16表13：品塊司收入利增速 17表14：品塊季利率18表15：品塊季用投情況 19表16：品塊季母凈率19表17：點司值表 21一、白酒板塊：經(jīng)營有所分化，區(qū)域名酒業(yè)績亮眼1、Q2延續(xù)高增長，環(huán)比略有提速白酒板塊23Q22023Q2白8871743015197222基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)了較高速的增長，且環(huán)比提速，利潤端延續(xù)高增，實現(xiàn)20%2023Q2900.6圖1：白酒板塊收入利潤及增速情況2014Q32014Q42014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2

90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%營業(yè)收入（億） 歸母凈利潤（億） 收入同比 歸母凈利潤同比同比增速現(xiàn)金回款（億）70%60%同比增速現(xiàn)金回款（億）70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%1400.00.02014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q223Q2收入同比Vs21Q2CAGR23Q2歸母凈利潤同比Vs21Q2CAGR貴州茅臺31,60820.4%18.1%15,18621.0%19.1%五糧液14,3685.1%7.5%4,4955.1%7.7%瀘州老窖6,98330.5%27.2%3,37827.2%28.1%高端合計52,95816.9%15.9%23,05818.4%17.7%山西汾酒6,32931.8%15.0%1,94849.6%19.6%水井坊6732.2%6.2%43508.9%/舍得酒業(yè)1,50832.1%5.2%35014.8%-10.1%酒鬼酒577-32.0%-15.4%122-38.2%-29.1%次高端合計9,08721.9%9.7%2,46336.0%11.1%洋河股份6,82716.1%16.6%2,0969.9%8.0%古井貢酒4,72626.8%28.2%1,21047.5%46.4%今世緣2,16730.6%22.0%79529.1%22.5%口子窖1,32134.0%11.1%31222.8%8.0%迎駕貢酒1,22728.6%13.5%36459.0%28.7%金種子酒33530.5%15.7%3-107.9%/老白干酒1,22910.0%17.1%11518.5%29.5%伊力特481-5.6%-0.6%2839.8%-41.1%區(qū)域名酒合計21.3%18.6%4,92326.2%18.9%兩年維度：23Q2vs21Q2CAGR，分價格帶表現(xiàn)：18.6%>15.9%>9.7%；18.9%>17.7%>11.1%；單年維度：23Q2vs22Q2，分價格帶表現(xiàn)：21.9%>21.3%>16.9%；36.0%>26.2%>18.4%；臺23Q2收入利潤增速均超20%5年新高。茅臺酒同比+21.1%，接近系列酒增速，帶動產(chǎn)五糧液老窖窖強勢增長，特曲、低度國窖提價推動噸價提升，Q2營收、利潤分別同增30.5%/27.2%，業(yè)績彈性持續(xù)釋放。汾酒，Q2預收款充足，全年任務(wù)有望超額完成。舍得中檔酒增長15%慢于整體，結(jié)構(gòu)略有下降，省外核心市場增速較明顯，重慶、上海等潛力市場的開拓持續(xù)推進，23H1247酒鬼酒動銷恢復待觀察。（/利潤cagr18.6%/18.9%）。不同省份經(jīng)濟活躍度和大眾消費恢復程度不同，區(qū)域25-30%，營收和利潤增長亮眼，蘇酒增長中樞20%左右，河北、新疆、湖南等區(qū)域酒企呈現(xiàn)出不同程度的增速放緩，增速同比基本持平（-5%~5%），區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長水平對地產(chǎn)酒動銷影響逐步抬升。分酒企看，古井，Q226.8%47.5%1630-40%洋河Q216.1%今世緣K100-300AV3600元價格帶升級，帶動特A+26.5%，省內(nèi)蘇中、蘇南繼續(xù)突破，省外貫營收30.6%/29.1%口子窖迎駕貢酒916收入增速利潤增速22Q222Q322Q423Q1收入增速利潤增速22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q222Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2貴州茅臺15.9%15.2%16.5%18.7%20.4%17.3%15.8%20.6%20.6%21.0%五糧液10.0%12.2%10.3%13.0%5.1%10.3%18.5%10.8%15.9%5.1%瀘州老窖24.1%22.3%16.3%20.6%30.5%29.0%31.0%27.9%29.1%27.2%山西汾酒0.4%32.5%50.0%20.4%31.8%-4.3%57.0%127.1%29.9%49.6%水井坊10.4%7.0%-25.4%-39.7%2.2%-116.9%10.0%-19.1%-56.0%508.9%舍得酒業(yè)-16.3%30.9%5.6%7.3%32.1%-29.7%55.7%75.9%7.3%14.8%酒鬼酒5.3%2.5%-27.1%-42.9%-32.0%-18.7%21.1%-55.7%-42.4%-38.2%洋河股份17.1%18.4%6.3%15.5%16.1%6.1%40.4%3.7%15.7%9.9%古井貢酒29.5%21.6%24.7%24.8%26.8%45.3%19.3%58.2%42.9%47.5%今世緣14.0%26.1%27.6%27.3%30.6%16.3%27.3%27.5%25.2%29.1%口子窖-7.9%5.7%-1.9%21.3%34.0%-4.9%-0.2%-39.6%10.4%22.8%迎駕貢酒0.1%26.3%15.5%21.6%28.6%4.1%13.6%19.5%27.2%59.0%金種子酒2.6%-18.6%-8.3%25.5%30.5%-13.3%73.2%132.2%228.1%-107.9%老白干酒24.6%27.9%-4.8%10.4%10.0%41.6%36.6%24.6%-61.5%18.5%伊力特4.7%-60.0%-33.1%18.5%-5.6%-75.2%-79.2%-44.4%37.0%39.8%23Q2白3346%Q112%公司主動減輕渠道壓力，回款節(jié)奏放緩所致，23H1末合同負債同比-32.7%至53.2Q116.5Q294.5%36.5Q118.91657/2221.9%63%22Q122Q222Q322Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比增速環(huán)比增速合同負債/22年營收貴州茅臺83229669118371547283307334-24.1%-12.0%5.7%五糧液360718772963123795536364994.5%-34.1%4.9%瀘州老窖176323301900256617261934-17.0%12.0%7.7%山西汾酒38814844472569084172575318.8%37.9%21.9%水井坊8398579761027998108626.7%8.8%23.2%舍得酒業(yè)39143236229879750917.7%-36.2%8.4%酒鬼酒675556345433367448-19.5%22.0%11.0%洋河股份9766790881731374269755323-32.7%-23.7%17.7%古井貢酒46923428376382747453025-11.7%-36.2%18.1%今世緣11361017137220401143112911.0%-1.3%14.3%口子窖37739638556344572783.5%63.2%14.1%迎駕貢酒46837841966150150533.5%0.8%9.2%金種子酒718394110170919.3%-46.5%7.7%老白干酒2080170519841491220918729.8%-15.3%40.2%伊力特1258670807656-35.5%-26.5%3.4%合計381923556639368585973819033439-6.0%-12.4%9.8%21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q321Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1貴州茅臺35.1%28.2%38.3%31.7%31.9%31.3%39.3%26.4%五糧液48.8%28.5%47.4%26.4%12.9%16.3%39.8%38.5%瀘州老窖29.4%29.2%55.6%32.9%39.8%25.0%33.7%24.7%山西汾酒63.4%140.8%70.0%80.8%71.1%116.1%54.5%65.9%水井坊40.3%72.1%67.8%127.4%50.5%108.2%120.4%148.2%舍得酒業(yè)30.4%62.5%34.9%34.3%27.2%25.1%14.7%52.9%酒鬼酒94.2%67.3%81.8%79.6%58.6%61.1%44.9%63.6%洋河股份86.2%191.0%121.3%166.0%104.4%225.6%91.3%102.2%古井貢酒71.5%88.2%34.6%125.9%91.1%95.3%12.6%100.4%今世緣43.7%80.2%69.2%68.5%54.4%100.2%53.6%52.7%口子窖35.8%29.2%51.6%38.3%27.0%28.0%35.4%33.7%迎駕貢酒37.0%27.7%37.9%49.0%27.8%26.0%34.5%40.8%金種子酒51.9%28.8%28.4%27.5%39.1%25.2%25.5%50.8%老白干酒115.0%139.0%149.6%186.1%119.3%165.7%148.7%179.7%伊力特25.8%11.7%13.4%24.5%49.7%22.0%10.8%15.8%21Q4 22Q122Q222Q3 22Q4 21Q4 22Q122Q222Q3 22Q4 同比增速環(huán)比增速貴州茅臺/ /144146 105 // -/五糧液25501 310972622125442 29024 26671-14.2% -8.1%瀘州老窖4758 264216722581 4583 429762.6% -6.3%山西汾酒4412 270923461359 1013 927-65.8%-8.4%水井坊6 148/ / /-100.0%/舍得酒業(yè)195 269203134 104 773187.3%640.4%酒鬼酒500 646297201 224 362-43.9%62.0%洋河股份887 555160225 1149 216-61.0%-81.2%古井貢酒545 30876941412 217 356215.4%1538.5%今世緣22 25828 / 25-0.7%/口子窖609 382344608 340 58653.2%72.2%金種子酒10 434 46 774.1%-83.9%迎駕貢酒80 788397 145 224186.0%54.4%老白干酒217 295199353 139 3094.8%122.3%伊力特124 1222132 78 78-36.2%-0.1%22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比增長環(huán)比增長五糧液高端合計29,66934,87144,66435,76333,30912.3%-6.9%17,69917,59032,74628,63714,415-18.6%-49.7%7,5885,2835,5438,0429,54225.7%18.6%54,95657,74482,95472,44357,2664.2%-20.9%山西汾酒5,8237,7826,2379,8177,88935.5%-19.6%水井坊7442,0211,0908778139.4%-7.3%舍得酒業(yè)1,3071,7511,1382,2361,77736.0%-20.5%酒鬼酒997870589760595-40.3%-21.7%次高端合計8,87012,4249,05413,69111,07524.9%-19.1%洋河股份4,8968,6509,33610,3175,57313.8%-46.0%古井貢酒4,3693,4563,3567,7555,21219.3%-32.8%今世緣1,7562,9902,3533,4272,32932.6%-32.0%口子窖9791,1651,9381,2141,45848.9%20.0%迎駕貢酒9701,5622,3341,9461,38142.5%-29.0%金種子酒27639541845441952.1%-7.6%老白干酒9101,6358421,6891,13724.9%-32.7%伊力特521176397714409-21.6%-42.8%區(qū)域名酒合計14,67820,03020,97327,51817,91822.1%-34.9%22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比增長環(huán)比增長貴州茅臺22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比增長環(huán)比增長貴州茅臺113.0114.9118.390.8105.4-6.7%16.0%五糧液129.4120.8180.092.0100.3-22.5%9.1%瀘州老窖141.890.273.0105.7136.6-3.6%29.3%山西汾酒121.2114.3153.277.4124.72.8%61.0%水井坊112.9119.1120.8102.8120.87.0%17.5%舍得酒業(yè)114.5110.079.1110.7117.93.0%6.5%酒鬼酒117.691.7104.478.8103.2-12.2%31.0%洋河股份83.2114.2257.768.681.6-1.9%19.0%古井貢酒117.291.985.0117.8110.3-5.9%-6.4%今世緣105.8159.9171.790.1107.51.6%19.3%口子窖99.379.6141.176.3110.411.1%44.7%迎駕貢酒101.6114.6144.7101.6112.610.8%10.8%金種子酒107.4185.5112.7105.0125.116.5%19.2%老白干酒81.5114.470.3168.592.513.6%-45.1%伊力特102.4101.6125.396.685.0-17.0%-11.9%2、經(jīng)營情況：渠道持續(xù)擴張，盈利能力分化同比下降。次高端中，汾酒產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)定，水井坊、舍得中低檔產(chǎn)品占比提升毛利率分別同比-3%、-1.9%，酒鬼酒產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)保持穩(wěn)定。區(qū)域名酒結(jié)構(gòu)升級明顯，利同改，河、井益產(chǎn)結(jié)升級毛 利 率 同 比+8.6/+0.8%，迎駕洞9及以上產(chǎn)品快速增長拉動公司毛利率提升7.4%。22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動（pct22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動（pct）貴州茅臺92.6%92.1%91.6%92.0%92.7%91.0%-1.0五糧液78.4%73.9%73.3%73.7%78.4%73.3%-0.6瀘州老窖86.4%85.3%88.5%86.1%88.1%88.6%3.3山西汾酒74.8%78.4%77.9%69.1%75.6%77.8%-0.6水井坊84.9%84.6%84.4%83.8%83.2%81.6%-3.0舍得酒業(yè)80.8%73.8%78.7%75.7%78.4%71.9%-1.9酒鬼酒79.8%77.8%81.7%78.5%81.5%77.8%0.0洋河股份77.3%66.5%76.0%75.1%76.6%75.1%8.6古井貢酒77.9%77.0%73.7%79.6%79.7%77.8%0.8今世緣74.3%69.2%79.6%86.5%75.4%72.9%3.7口子窖78.0%72.1%72.8%73.4%76.6%70.5%-1.5迎駕貢酒71.4%63.2%69.1%66.7%71.2%70.6%7.4金種子酒34.6%31.4%19.9%19.2%27.2%33.8%2.4老白干酒70.2%66.6%67.2%70.0%65.4%68.6%2.0伊力特51.0%40.4%41.0%58.3%51.5%42.1%1.7高端銷售費用投入穩(wěn)健，次高端分化，區(qū)域酒投入力度加大。銷售費用來看，瀘州老窖、洋河、今世緣、老白干、酒鬼酒投放力度有所加大，洋河今年公司加大+6.11pct至16.8%，23Q2（（-2.6pct-4.9pct，23Q2銷售費用率（%）同比變動（pct）23Q223Q2銷售費用率（%）同比變動（pct）23Q2管理費用率(含研發(fā)）（%）同比變動（pct）貴州茅臺3.3%-0.55.9%0.0五糧液15.4%-0.65.0%-0.1瀘州老窖11.1%1.04.7%-1.1山西汾酒11.1%-4.95.2%-0.1水井坊41.1%-2.218.6%-0.1舍得酒業(yè)15.2%-0.411.8%1.2酒鬼酒29.7%2.78.0%2.6洋河股份16.8%6.17.7%-1.6古井貢酒24.3%-2.65.1%-1.7今世緣13.1%3.04.3%0.1口子窖14.9%0.07.0%-0.6迎駕貢酒12.0%0.15.6%-1.0金種子酒6.7%-19.913.7%1.0老白干酒34.9%4.48.4%0.4伊力特12.9%2.65.4%1.2高端盈利能力穩(wěn)健，次高端和區(qū)域酒凈利率分化。凈利率來看，高端白酒中茅臺五糧液毛利率與費用率同降，凈利率保持穩(wěn)定。老窖受稅金影響（稅金同比+2.2pct）凈利率同比下降1.3pct3.7pct3.6pct5.7pct。22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動（pct）22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動（pct）貴州茅臺47.8%48.1%48.5%52.8%48.0%0.2五糧液31.3%33.6%36.8%40.3%31.3%0.0瀘州老窖49.6%45.8%28.3%48.8%48.4%-1.3山西汾酒27.1%30.8%24.3%38.0%30.8%3.7水井坊1.1%40.4%17.8%18.7%6.4%5.4舍得酒業(yè)26.7%22.9%33.7%28.2%23.2%-3.5酒鬼酒23.2%26.8%13.6%31.1%21.1%-2.1洋河股份32.4%28.8%8.4%38.3%30.7%-1.7古井貢酒22.0%18.7%13.2%23.8%25.6%3.6今世緣37.1%24.8%30.8%33.0%36.7%-0.4口子窖25.8%31.5%25.4%33.7%23.6%-2.2迎駕貢酒24.0%31.1%31.1%36.5%29.7%5.7金種子酒-16.6%-37.8%-13.9%-9.5%1.0%17.6老白干酒8.7%11.9%14.5%10.2%9.3%0.7伊力特3.9%6.5%8.1%20.1%5.8%1.9洋+552全國化，23H1/華中/華南分別增長10億+23Q2/Q230.6%67.2%23H123H15476次高端整體渠道仍在擴張，重視市場開拓。汾酒重視系列酒的市場布局，主要對23H112723H124052022247經(jīng)銷商體量（單位：萬元/家）22H1 23H1 經(jīng)銷商體量（單位：萬元/家）22H1 23H1 同比增速22H1經(jīng)銷商數(shù)量（單位：家）23H1 同比增速五糧液合計136714616.9%301531143.3%山西汾酒合計42050419.8%364837753.5%水井坊合計48222993-37.9%435118.6%舍得酒業(yè)合計12314719.1%24562405-2.1%酒鬼酒合計17287-49.3%1479177419.9%合計2432596.2%776984618.9%洋河股份省內(nèi)3023174.8%284529854.9%省外2012198.8%4924547611.2%古井貢酒合計22026118.5%409343416.1%合計47057121.3%98810465.9%今世緣省內(nèi)1040122217.5%4154508.4%省外497449.9%636596-6.3%資料來源：公司年報，二、食品板塊：中報加速計提，觸底回暖可期 1、業(yè)績回顧：弱復蘇下穩(wěn)健經(jīng)營，中報加速計提有望觸底整體需求弱復蘇，餐飲低基數(shù)下增速較快，細分品類/賽道仍有亮點。今年以來Q2+78%/+50%/+34%包材整體同比仍降幅明顯，同比降幅均雙位數(shù)以上，但環(huán)比價格略有上漲。3）675/40%Q267-8分板塊看：Q2H11.1pctsQ20.41pct。B較快。Q2Q2B78%costcoC23H115%+數(shù)左右。青島啤酒中高檔以上產(chǎn)品銷量同比+15%推廣的單品在場景恢復下分別+15.5%/+20%。華潤次高檔以上產(chǎn)品銷量同比60%1664、烏蘇H1H123000突破2000家。上游零食品牌積極擁抱渠道變化，甘源、鹽津多品類、散稱Q2SKUQ220%-30%Q2192121B復蘇強于小Q2BCB（小40%20%主業(yè)維持穩(wěn)健增長，Q2速凍魚糜/肉制品/面米制品增速分別同比為+13.6%/+16.8%/+4.2%，BCQ2大BH2同比23Q2同比23Q2VS19Q2CAGR23H1同比23Q223H1收入同比23Q2收入同比23H1利潤同比23Q2同比23Q2VS19Q2CAGR23H1同比23Q223H1收入同比23Q2收入同比23H1利潤同比23Q2利潤同比同比海天味業(yè)129.759.830.9613.8-11.7伊利股份662.04.3327.61.163.052.826.92.9東鵬飲料54.629.711.086.1安琪酵母67.133.28.46.690.13.2-11.0百潤股份16.58.94.392.5涪陵榨菜13.4-6.0%5.8-21.3%4.70-8.9%2.1-30.8%洽洽食品26.90.3%13.58.3%2.67-23.8%0.9-37.5%中炬高新（）25.74.4%12.50.9%3.1610.5%1.68.7%天味食品14.317.4%6.612.7%2.0825.1%0.821.0%寶立食品11.323.9%5.920.9%1.6678.8%0.976.0%日辰股份1.612.3%0.817.7%0.24-6.8%0.110.0%恒順醋業(yè)11.4-3.7%5.3-13.9%1.24-3.4%0.50.0%仙樂健康15.439.0%8.422.1%1.01-7.9%0.7-24.7%青島啤酒215.912.0%108.98.2%34.2620.1%19.714.4%絕味食品37.010.9%18.813.9%2.42145.5%1.0998.1%桃李面包32.10.0%17.3-1.3%2.92-18.5%1.5-23.4%巴比食品7.47.6%4.211.1%0.82-30.5%0.4-64.9%重慶啤酒85.07.2%45.09.6%8.6518.9%4.823.5%甘源食品8.334.6%4.448.1%1.20190.9%0.6246.5%味知香4.210.3%2.111.9%0.756.1%0.412.6%千味央廚8.531.1%4.240.4%0.5622.2%0.350.3%立高食品16.423.6%8.421.3%1.0853.7%0.692.0%佳禾食品13.338.1%6.956.3%1.36303.2%0.7341.1%安井食品68.930.7%37.026.1%7.3562.1%3.750.0%中國飛鶴97.40.6%--16.96-24.8%--周黑鴨14.119.8%--1.02453.6%--頤海國際26.2-2.7%--3.5836.0%--蒙牛乳業(yè)511.27.1%--30.20-19.5%--華潤啤酒238.713.6%--46.4922.3%--H&H國際69.817.2%--6.0828.0%--農(nóng)夫山泉204.623.3%--57.7525.3%--wind營業(yè)收入歸母凈利潤22Q222Q3營業(yè)收入歸母凈利潤22Q222Q322Q4 23Q123Q223Q2vs19Q2CAGR22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q2vs19Q2CAGR海天味業(yè)22.2-1.8-7.1 -3.2-5.36.411.8-6.0-22.0-6.2-11.72.0伊利股份11.26.714.57.71.110.54.9-26.580.12.72.915.6東鵬飲料15.925.331.324.130.0-22.828.339.744.349.0-安琪酵母18.722.525.312.08.415.0-7.920.646.012.8-11.08.6百潤股份-28.2-13.539.541.178.726.2-45.7-56.8110.1104.794.727.8涪陵榨菜15.02.5-10.8 10.4-21.30.874.741.4-15.122.0-30.87.0洽洽食品24.413.618.9-6.78.39.310.53.24.5-14.4-37.5-4.2中炬高新（美味鮮）23.112.8-1.6 7.90.9-25.06.7-21.112.58.7-天味食品18.282.324.521.812.719.51554.31629.3-6.727.721.028.6寶立食品21.432.430.927.220.9-12.222.756.982.476.0-日辰股份-7.2-6.9-23.3 7.217.74.8-38.1-29.5-61.2-21.510.0-11.3恒順醋業(yè)18.153.9-14.3 7.1-13.95.83.6236.1-4.6-5.70.0-7.7仙樂健康5.016.115.866.722.120.47.821.314.8100.8-24.78.5青島啤酒7.516.0-9.8 16.38.26.123.918.4-22.228.914.424.5絕味食品0.64.8-11.7 8.013.98.9-96.4-73.9-22.354.4998.1-16.5桃李面包8.85.7-0.8 1.7-1.35.2-3.0-33.9-23.0-12.2-23.4-4.3巴比食品9.99.85.63.211.1--41.09.00.42724.4-64.9-重慶啤酒6.14.9-4.0 4.59.645.718.47.9-33.613.623.532.9甘源食品42.713.99.922.248.117.9549.920.3-9.9145.0246.532.7味知香-5.211.8-1.7 8.611.9-7.9-2.79.0-0.212.6-千味央廚8.019.218.823.240.4-2.418.91.15.550.3-立高食品3.12.50.426.221.3--52.2-50.5-49.424.692.0-佳禾食品-15.63.224.122.856.3-5.9-30.336.7267.2341.1-安井食品46.130.826.836.426.131.543.061.7118.476.950.038.9 wind2、經(jīng)營情況：成本壓力減弱，費用投放出現(xiàn)分歧23H1Q2相比Q1H2圖3：食品飲料行業(yè)主要原材料及包材價格變動wind22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動海天味業(yè)34.9%35.3%34.0%36.9%34.7%-0.1%伊利股份32.8%31.0%31.4%34.0%32.7%-0.1%東鵬飲料42.2%40.1%44.4%43.5%42.7%0.5%安琪酵母26.8%21.9%23.9%25.4%23.6%-3.1%百潤股份61.2%62.1%67.0%65.5%66.3%5.1%涪陵榨菜57.7%53.4%47.3%56.3%48.8%-8.9%洽洽食品27.5%32.3%34.6%28.5%20.6%-6.9%中炬高新31.7%31.2%31.7%31.4%32.5%0.8%天味食品34.5%32.7%34.0%40.6%31.1%-3.4%寶立食品35.0%34.6%35.4%35.1%34.5%-0.5%日辰股份39.1%40.7%38.1%38.7%40.5%1.5%恒順醋業(yè)33.2%33.9%32.0%35.1%36.5%3.2%仙樂健康34.3%29.6%31.4%27.7%30.9%-3.4%青島啤酒38.3%38.0%25.2%38.3%40.1%1.8%絕味食品25.7%23.6%22.5%24.3%22.3%-3.3%桃李面包24.7%21.7%24.2%23.9%23.1%-1.6%巴比食品29.5%26.2%27.8%24.2%26.7%-2.8%重慶啤酒49.6%51.6%55.6%45.2%51.4%1.8%甘源食品29.1%37.1%34.9%36.3%34.9%5.8%味知香24.0%23.9%23.7%26.2%26.0%2.0%千味央廚22.4%23.1%25.0%24.0%22.5%0.2%立高食品29.4%32.1%32.5%32.0%33.7%4.3%佳禾食品10.6%10.2%15.5%17.0%19.4%8.8%安井食品20.0%19.6%23.8%24.7%19.9%-0.1%windQ2素體現(xiàn)明顯：1）H11.25pctsH14.78pctsQ2Q21.4pcts6.6pctsQ2Q24.2pcts同比提升6.3pcts較大，費用率被動抬升影響盈利能力，恒順受收入下滑影響，銷售費用率提升0.7pct0.5pct。銷售費用率管理費用率22Q222Q3銷售費用率管理費用率22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動22Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動海天味業(yè)4.7%5.9%5.6%5.2%5.6%0.9%1.6%2.3%1.8%1.6%2.0%0.4%伊利股份18.5%18.8%19.0%17.1%18.0%-0.5%4.4%4.6%5.1%4.2%3.8%-0.5%東鵬飲料16.0%16.3%19.5%15.7%15.9%-0.1%2.7%2.9%3.0%3.2%2.8%0.1%安琪酵母5.5%5.9%4.9%5.2%4.9%-0.6%3.2%3.9%2.1%3.3%3.5%0.2%百潤股份17.9%29.8%22.9%20.6%19.6%1.7%7.7%7.2%5.7%4.5%4.9%-2.7%涪陵榨菜10.8%22.8%4.2%17.8%9.4%-1.4%3.0%2.9%4.9%3.2%3.4%0.4%洽洽食品8.5%9.7%11.8%10.7%8.5%0.0%6.6%5.1%4.4%5.2%5.6%-1.0%中炬高新7.5%9.1%9.9%8.6%8.4%0.9%5.7%8.2%5.3%6.4%6.3%0.5%天味食品18.0%12.6%14.4%14.8%11.4%-6.6%5.7%6.3%6.6%5.9%8.2%2.5%寶立食品16.7%14.2%15.8%16.1%14.8%-1.9%2.6%2.7%3.7%2.5%3.9%1.3%日辰股份7.5%6.8%9.8%7.6%8.2%0.6%11.1%9.9%10.1%11.6%9.4%-1.8%恒順醋業(yè)15.6%17.3%21.1%12.4%16.2%0.7%4.3%5.5%6.8%4.5%4.3%0.0%仙樂健康4.0%5.4%6.0%7.4%7.4%3.3%11.8%10.7%12.5%11.8%9.8%-2.0%青島啤酒8.1%11.2%31.9%13.8%8.3%0.2%3.5%3.9%12.5%3.0%3.1%-0.4%絕味食品9.7%6.5%8.9%6.8%7.4%-2.3%10.2%6.5%8.0%6.3%6.8%-3.5%桃李面包7.6%8.1%8.3%8.4%8.1%0.5%1.5%1.8%2.4%2.3%2.0%0.5%巴比食品5.5%5.8%6.8%7.3%5.1%-0.4%7.3%7.0%7.3%9.6%7.8%0.4%重慶啤酒15.3%15.2%28.2%12.9%15.9%0.6%3.2%3.5%6.6%3.1%3.2%0.0%甘源食品16.0%10.9%13.0%13.7%11.8%-4.2%5.8%4.9%2.8%4.3%4.4%-1.4%味知香3.4%3.6%4.4%4.3%4.3%0.9%3.5%3.6%4.9%4.6%3.5%0.0%千味央廚3.1%4.3%4.7%5.1%4.7%1.6%10.7%8.8%9.3%7.8%8.8%-1.9%立高食品11.7%12.0%11.3%11.9%12.0%0.3%8.3%8.4%8.5%7.3%7.8%-0.5%佳禾食品3.5%2.7%2.1%2.4%3.1%-0.4%3.9%3.3%1.6%2.5%2.8%-1.1%安井食品5.7%6.3%7.1%7.4%4.9%-0.7%4.0%2.3%2.2%2.8%2.2%-1.8%wind22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q2同比變動海天味業(yè)24.7%22.9%23.5%24.6%23.1%-1.7%伊利股份8.1%6.3%4.7%10.8%8.2%0.2%東鵬飲料17.9%17.5%14.8%20.0%20.6%2.6%安琪酵母11.6%7.9%11.0%10.4%9.5%-2.1%百潤股份25.9%13.8%22.8%24.7%28.2%2.3%涪陵榨菜41.2%28.9%40.3%34.4%36.3%-4.9%洽洽食品11.5%16.2%14.0%13.3%6.6%-4.9%中炬高新11.9%8.1%-73.0%11.0%-123.7%-135.5%天味食品11.2%11.3%12.5%16.7%12.1%0.8%寶立食品10.5%10.8%11.0%14.2%15.2%4.8%日辰股份17.0%18.1%12.7%13.3%15.9%-1.1%恒順醋業(yè)8.3%5.3%-3.6%11.9%9.6%1.3%仙樂健康13.8%9.8%5.0%4.2%8.5%-5.3%青島啤酒17.1%14.4%-18.2%13.6%18.1%1.0%絕味食品0.6%6.8%0.9%7.5%5.6%5.0%桃李面包12.3%12.8%11.5%11.7%10.9%11.4%巴比食品5.4%57.7%3.9%21.9%0.5%31.0%重慶啤酒9.0%8.5%10.4%6.3%8.9%9.4%甘源食品12.2%-2.0%12.9%17.4%7.0%6.3%味知香17.5%16.3%20.1%15.5%19.2%18.1%千味央廚6.8%6.0%6.3%8.3%8.2%5.7%立高食品12.6%9.4%8.6%10.0%6.4%4.4%佳禾食品9.6%3.0%6.0%6.2%3.3%3.7%安井食品9.2%8.7%6.6%5.9%8.7%8.5%wind三、投資建議：中報加速計提、政策提振情緒、資三、投資建議：中報加速計提、政策提振情緒、資金面底部反轉(zhuǎn)，堅定看多IPO疊加下，市場情緒有積極改善。9.6%1.4%181.5%（15%-30%（珍酒李渡老白干酒中炬高新中國飛鶴H&H國際控股板塊預期回落但業(yè)績穩(wěn)健的甘源食品，關(guān)注洽洽食品、涪陵榨菜等。風險提示：經(jīng)濟環(huán)境擾動，需求不及預期，成本上漲，競爭加劇四、行業(yè)重點公司估值表 EPS PE代碼公司名稱投資評級市值股價22EPS PE代碼公司名稱投資評級市值股價2223E24E25E2223E24E25E600519貴州茅臺強烈推薦233491858.749.959.670.482.737312622000858五糧液強烈推薦6433165.76.97.78.69.924221917600809山西汾酒強烈推薦3151258.36.68.710.913.53930241900