上海出口集裝箱運輸市場（歐洲航線）周報：上市首日即漲停 后市存回調(diào)風(fēng)險

上海出口集裝箱運輸市場(歐洲航線)周報WeeklyReportonShanghaiExporttoEuropeContainerShippingIndustry后重要事項作者：宏觀與大類資產(chǎn)研究中心陳臻投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格：京證監(jiān)許可【2012】75號方正中期官方微信上市首日即漲停后市存回調(diào)風(fēng)險跌空歐航線有長期外于低位震蕩的風(fēng)險。會出現(xiàn)分化。落 1(一)本周期貨市場回顧 1(二)本周現(xiàn)貨市場回顧 1減弱供應(yīng)鏈壓力回升 2(一)運力總規(guī)模 2(二)航線運營情況 3(三)班輪公司運力規(guī)模 5(四)全球供應(yīng)鏈壓力回升 6(五)港口運營方面 7、需求端：中國貨運市場有所復(fù)蘇亞歐航線增量源于中俄 7(一)全球運量回落亞歐航線反彈 7(二)出口國/起運港：中國貨運市場有所復(fù)蘇 8(三)進口國/目的港：歐洲經(jīng)濟邊際復(fù)蘇但整體依然處于磨底中 10 (一)航次成本：燃料油價格下挫 12(二)資金成本：二手船價格持續(xù)下挫 12 13 (一)本周期貨市場回顧EC漲情緒共同帶動所致。表1-1上市首日上海出口集運期貨(歐洲航線)交易情況EC04EC06EC08EC10EC12(二)本周現(xiàn)貨市場回顧表1-2最新一期各大集裝箱運價指數(shù)(中國→歐洲航線)運價周環(huán)比WCINCFI-4.5%-0.7%-6.7% SCFI(上?！鷼W洲)季節(jié)性趨勢圖 9000800070006000500040003000000100001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月交易所、方正中期期貨研究院整理(點)4月月月(點)4月月月0S所、方正中期期貨研究院整理二、供給端：停航力度減弱供應(yīng)鏈壓力回升(一)運力總規(guī)模亞歐航線集裝箱艙位量跨太平洋航線集裝箱艙位量25,000,00020,000,0025,000,00020,000,00015,000,00030,000,00010,000,0005,000,00002014-05-262015-05-262016-05-262017-05-262018-05-262019-05-262020-05-262021-05-262022-05-262023-05-26(二)航線運營情況跨大西洋航線集裝箱艙位量再看班輪公司對于中國→歐美航線的運力投放力度(以該周開航的船舶作為統(tǒng)計口徑)。洲航線的投放情況、方正中期期貨研究院整理(三)班輪公司運力規(guī)模排名班輪公司運力規(guī)模(TEU)全球占比1地中海航運5,209,7662馬士基航運4,146,1463達飛輪船3,515,7334運2,950,7175赫伯羅特1,881,6036.8%6長榮海運1,673,6006.1%7海洋網(wǎng)聯(lián)1,681,8976.1%8韓新航運790,3422.9%9陽明航運705,6142.6%579,7972.1%合計2313521583.8%班輪公司新船訂單規(guī)模(TEU)總艘數(shù)(艘)1地中海航運1,551,4642達飛輪船1,206,5913運910,2944長榮海運840,6505海洋網(wǎng)聯(lián)469,7686馬士基404,8007赫伯羅特288,6408306,1849韓新航運265,027陽明海運77,5005合計6243418(四)全球供應(yīng)鏈壓力回升方正中期期貨研究院整理(五)港口運營方面方正中期期貨研究院整理航線反彈別下降排名單位:TEU2023年6月環(huán)比總量CTS全球集裝箱總0%-1.5%-1.0%1Asia-Asia420200027.8%-2.1%-2.6%2Asia-NorthAmerica180150011.9%-12.7%2.7%3Asia-Europe14912009.9%11.9%3.1%4Asia-IndianSubCont.&MiddleEast7767005.1%17.1%1.3%5Europe-Europe6597004.4%-3.1%-0.2%6Europe-Asia5279003.5%0.2%0.8%7NorthAmerica-Asia4731003.1%-4.0%-10.0%8Asia-South&CentralAmerica4433002.9%18.1%5.1%9Europe-NorthAmerica4253002.8%-13.2%1.1%Asia-SubSaharanAfrica3218002.1%13.5%-3.6%億美元總出口歐盟美國東盟英國總出口同比歐盟同比美國同比東盟同比英國同比總出口環(huán)比歐盟環(huán)比美國環(huán)比東盟環(huán)比英國環(huán)比2023-072817.60423.80423.13417.7470.77-14.5%-20.6%-23.1%-21.4%-6.8%-1.2%-3.6%-0.9%-3.5%11.51%2023-062853.22439.55426.94433.0363.46-12.4%-12.9%-23.7%-16.9%-10.2%0.5%-1.5%0.5%4.4%-8.6%2023-052838.35446.29424.78414.9069.45-7.1%-7.0%-18.2%-15.9%3.7%-2.7%-0.3%-1.3%-10.2%8.4%2023-042916.66447.42430.23461.9664.077.3%3.9%-6.5%4.5%10.8%-4.4%-2.5%-1.5%-18.1%-3.3%2023-033050.38458.94436.78564.0066.2811.4%3.4%-7.7%35.4%7.3%45.0%40.4%60.8%48.3%50.6%2023-022103.34326.85271.59380.3144.00-2.7%-16.1%-31.8%33.7%-17.3%-26.8%-31.1%-38.8%-14.8%-35.1%2023-012872.35474.14444.11446.4567.76-11.6%-9.5%-14.2%-6.7%-12.7%-4.5%8.7%-2.1%-16.5%2.4%2022-123008.56435.99453.71534.8266.14-11.4%-17.5%-19.5%7.5%-20.2%2.7%-2.7%11.2%6.3%0.0%2022-112929.12447.88408.06502.8966.11-9.7%-10.6%-25.4%5.2%-16.5%-1.1%1.5%-13.2%2.9%-5.1%2022-102962.75441.24470.18488.5569.66-1.0%-9.0%-12.6%20.3%-14.5%-7.3%-6.0%-7.4%-6.5%-1.53%2022-093196.27469.62507.60522.6470.744.9%5.6%-11.6%29.5%-11.8%2.3%-8.5%2.0%5.8%-10.9%2022-083123.00513.47497.75494.1679.356.5%11.1%-3.8%25.1%2.7%-5.2%-3.8%-9.6%-7.1%4.5%2022-073295.45533.87550.35531.6475.9017.2%23.2%11.0%33.5%3.9%1.2%5.8%-1.7%2.1%7.4%2022-063257.61504.75559.79520.8770.6816.2%17.1%19.3%29.0%-0.4%6.7%5.1%7.7%5.6%5.6%2022-053054.10480.05519.53493.4466.9616.0%20.3%15.7%25.9%-5.9%12.4%11.4%12.9%11.6%15.8%2022-042717.70430.77460.13442.1357.803.3%7.9%9.4%7.6%-15.4%-0.8%-3.0%-2.7%6.2%-6.4%2022-032738.81443.95473.11416.4661.7813.9%21.4%22.4%10.4%-3.5%26.7%13.9%18.9%46.4%16.1%2022-022161.24389.72397.96284.4853.205.7%15.4%9.7%5.9%-10.2%-33.5%-25.6%-23.1%-40.6%-31.5%2022-013249.32524.07517.48478.7477.6323.4%31.2%16.9%18.2%22.4%-4.3%-0.8%-8.2%-3.8%-6.3%(二)出口國/起運港：中國貨運市場有所復(fù)蘇U中國港口周度集裝箱吞吐量(萬TEU)600580560540520500480460440420400方正中期期貨研究院整理112013-05112014-05112015-05112016-05112017-05112018-051122019-05112020-05112021-05112022-05112023-05經(jīng)濟邊際復(fù)蘇但整體依然處于磨底中8ZEW歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)狀&景氣指數(shù)0-100ZEWZEW歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟景氣指數(shù)(點)歐洲季調(diào)零售指數(shù)50歐元區(qū)德國法國意大利西班牙9876543210(點)(點)40價格均下挫(一)航次成本：燃料油價格下挫(美元/噸)1,2001,00080060040020004020008004000(美元/桶)新加坡重油IFO380新加坡輕油MDO新加坡低硫燃料油新加坡高硫380OPCE一攬子原油價格(右軸)(二)資金成本：二手船價格持續(xù)下挫2023/8/12023/8/8周環(huán)比國際集裝箱船舶價格指數(shù)8863.78777.96-0.97%PostPanamax新船($)8281000081960000-1.03%10年期船齡Panamax($)5137000050850000-1.01%Panamax新船($)4890000048460000-0.90%10年期船齡Panamax($)3102000030740000-0.90%Handy新船($)2930000028910000-1.33%10年期船齡Handy($)670000440000-1.23%19/3/1919/5/1919/7/1919/9/1919/11/1920/1/1920/3/1920/5/1920/7/1920/9/1920/11/1921/1/1921/3/1919/3