食品飲料行業(yè)2023年中報業(yè)績前瞻-飲料篇

食品飲料行業(yè)2023年中報業(yè)績前瞻——飲料篇323H1E凈利潤同比增速0.0%伊利0%23H1E凈利潤同比增速0.0%伊利0%%飲料行業(yè)代表企業(yè)23H1預計業(yè)績增速情況23H1E營收同比增速%.0%%.0%.0%.0% 今世緣 青啤%%%% 2020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-06302042020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-0630204強度減弱H當月同比(%)403.10-20注：注：2019年國內(nèi)旅游收入數(shù)據(jù)按可比口徑進行調(diào)整國內(nèi)旅游收入(億元)人均消費(元)700650600“五一”假期旅游收入增長不及出游人次增長1600.001500.001400.001300.001200.001000.00900.005102019603“五一5102019603“五一”假期國內(nèi)旅游收入及人均消費20231480.561470.851480.56550500450400523Q23Q1同比增長23H1同比增長21H1-23H1復合增長6限額以上企業(yè)不同類別消費品銷售同比增速相對較高基數(shù)上繼續(xù)保持增長10.8%6.7%必選類消費品2.9%4.0%2.9%-2.8%飲料類8.0%2.9%2.5%8.8%0.7%服裝類-4.4%-4.4%家用電器類可選類消費品-3.8%-3.8%7.4%-6.3%-6.2%-6.3%家具類-6.4%-4.5%-14.7%-8.5%-12.3%112.4-29.2%-28.1%37.434.737.874.154.057.262.249.837.833.88月9月7月2022年1-2月2023年3月4-6.4%-4.5%-14.7%-8.5%-12.3%112.4-29.2%-28.1%37.434.737.874.154.057.262.249.837.833.88月9月7月2022年1-2月2023年3月4月5月6月產(chǎn)量(萬千升)0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%-25.0%-30.0%-35.0%-40.0%-45.0%10月11月12月增長率(%)2022年7月-2023年6月全國白酒產(chǎn)量及增長情況-3.7%-8.6%402080600 -3.2%-13.3%724.0%48.219.667.812.4%125.448.3173.715.4%57.722.580.220.8%207.9151.9359.824.0%48.219.667.812.4%125.448.3173.715.4%57.722.580.220.8%207.9151.9359.821.7%33.770.923H1E23Q123Q2E23H1E823Q123Q2E23H1E311.4151.8463.2150.567.6126.863.3190.165.8141.9387.6308.2695.8營收 (億元)16.3%20.8%23H1E注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報白酒板塊2023上半年業(yè)績前瞻(部分)白酒行業(yè)貴州茅臺五糧液洋河股份山西汾酒瀘州老窖23Q123Q2E20.0%23Q123Q2E20.0%21.7%13.0%15.5%15.0%20.4%31.8%營收 (YoY)凈利潤 (億元)23Q123Q2E15.9%13.0%15.7%23Q123Q2E15.9%13.0%15.7%18.0%20.6%21.0%29.9%50.2%凈利潤 (YoY)335.2%水井坊8.56.715.3-39.7%2.2%-26.4%1.60.42.0-56.0%508.9%-45.2%白酒行業(yè)水井坊8.56.715.3-39.7%2.2%-26.4%1.60.42.0-56.0%508.9%-45.2%白酒行業(yè)古井貢酒65.845.524.8%22.0%23.6%15.742.9%27.0%927.921.3%22.0%21.6%5.43.18.5%23.0%%今世緣38.021.759.727.3%30.6%28.5%12.68.020.525.2%29.2%26.7%3Q123Q2E23H1E3Q123Q2E23H1E3Q123Q2E23H1E3Q123Q2E23H1E營收 (億元)凈利潤 (YoY)9舍得酒業(yè)20.235.67.3%30.0%%注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報白酒板塊2023上半年業(yè)績前瞻(部分)7.3%營收 營收 (YoY)%5.7凈利潤凈利潤 (億元)9.720.8%18.2%17.4%11.3%11.7%394.9695.8576.2490.9439.530.0%20.9%20.8%13.3%9.1%359.8297.90.0%246.5226.0199.580070060050040030020.8%18.2%17.4%11.3%11.7%394.9695.8576.2490.9439.530.0%20.9%20.8%13.3%9.1%359.8297.90.0%246.5226.0199.5800700600500400300200025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1營收(億元)同比增速(%)35030025020050040.0%26.6%20.0%10.0%-10.0%-20.0% 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1-30.0%歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)擊500400300200012.2%12.4%463.2412.2367.5271.5307.72021H12022H12023H1E23040.0%30.0%31.3%14.4%20.0%500400300200012.2%12.4%463.2412.2367.5271.5307.72021H12022H12023H1E23040.0%30.0%31.3%14.4%20.0%803015.1%16.3%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%173.7151.0108.621.6%10.0%-10.0%-30.0%-50.0%-202019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-50.0%2019H12020H150.0%30.0%度19.4%26.8%19.4%13.3%營收(億元)同比增速(%)13132.0歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)30.0%28.1%70.955.330.0%28.1%70.955.39-1HE2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E4040200806025.2%22.0%24.8%93.2-4.7%80.176.3116.6 201925.2%22.0%24.8%93.2-4.7%80.176.3116.6 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-50.0%30.0%21.7%20.0%10.0%0.0%141.9-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%營收(億元)同比增速(%)89695949392950.0%40.0%31.40.0%31.2%30.9%20.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)75.5%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0% 26.5%24.0%5007.8%190.1153.369.0121.241.5%33.1%67.835.2%26.3%50.135.411.916.1201975.5%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0% 26.5%24.0%5007.8%190.1153.369.0121.241.5%33.1%67.835.2%26.3%50.135.411.916.12019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E63.8250100.0%20022.3%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E營收(億元)同比增速(%)905030-10117.5%歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)汾積極鋪市，產(chǎn)品提價趨勢明顯。受益于省內(nèi)消費需求推預計青花汾酒全系列同比增長35%以上。腰部產(chǎn)品老白汾、費與宴席回補，預增速25%以上國化目標明確15.4%218.1189.1134.356.655.84020-3.2%54.040.0%20.0%0.0%-15.4%218.1189.1134.356.655.84020-3.2%54.040.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%-80.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1EHE0-30.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E10.0%15.8%-16.1%160.0155.450.00.021.7%250.0200.0150.0100.0營收(億元)同比增速(%)21.8%10021.8%806.3%806.3%80.210.0%0.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%4.8%68.960歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)2025.2%21.2%26.7%30.0%-4.9%1020.5-10.0%242025.2%21.2%26.7%30.0%-4.9%1020.5-10.0%24510.710.2-30.0%0-50.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E1510.0%30.9%7070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.0322%.29.4%59.720.7%46.538.5-4.7%30.6322%.29.4%59.720.7%46.538.5-4.7%30.629.18.5%30.0%10.0%-10.0%-30.0% 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-50.0%50.0%營收(億元)同比增速(%)2550.0%歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)HE13130.0110.090.070.050.030.010.0-10.027.0%28.5%25.2%30.0%23.6%10.0%111.3-27.0%28.5%25.2%30.0%23.6%10.0%111.3-7.8%-10.0%-30.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-50.0%營收(億元)同比增速(%)03002520534.5%39.9%39.2%50.0%0.0%26.1-17.9%2-50.0%13.834.5%39.9%39.2%50.0%0.0%26.1-17.9%2-50.0%13.83 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-100.0%歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)36.1%12.512.5整體來看，高端和地產(chǎn)酒品牌動銷及回款反饋較好，部分品牌預計提前完成全年增長目標。整體來看，高端和地產(chǎn)酒品牌動銷及回款反饋較好，部分品牌預計提前完成全年增長目標。高端酒在去年上半年經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中并未有較大幅度影響，整體保持穩(wěn)健，預計今年全年仍將實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長放開后二三線城市及鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的送禮場景預計火爆，地產(chǎn)酒的消費場景仍將火熱，進一步帶來庫存消化，同時保持全年進度順利推進。尤其是宴席消費場景產(chǎn)品線的高端次高端品牌，如老窖特曲、汾酒目前庫存良性動銷預期20.4%524.8-1.2%7.0%374.6343.3305.91-2月5月同比增長(%)6月3月20.4%524.8-1.2%7.0%374.6343.3305.91-2月5月同比增長(%)6月3月4月啤酒產(chǎn)量(萬千升)25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%419.71.6%60050040030020002023年1-6月啤酒產(chǎn)量21.1%%8.5%4.5%8.4%%4.3%7.9%營收 (YoY)凈利潤 (YoY)營收 %8.5%4.5%8.4%%4.3%7.9%營收 (YoY)凈利潤 (YoY)營收 (億元)3Q123Q2E23H1E//231.2109.2216.244.584.535.341.276.417.019.636.722.6%%24.7%23H1E3Q123Q2E23Q1/28.9%13.6%7373.3%-1.7%23Q2E/22.0%15.3%31.1%-13.9%注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報，華潤使用核心凈利潤，百威單位為美元20啤酒行業(yè)華潤啤酒青島啤酒重慶啤酒燕京啤酒百威亞太啤酒代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻23H123H1E%%6.5%%6.2%3Q1/53.90.63.023Q2E/4.54.62.823H1E46.635.68.35.25.8 (億元)--8.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%7.2%7.0%231.2210.1196.3188.3174.1-7.5% 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-10.15.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%7.2%7.0%231.2210.1196.3188.3174.1-7.5% 2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E-10.0%營收(億元)同比增速(%)46.638.024.1%22.6%18.7%11.120.8-11.4%50.045.040.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0HE106.4%120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E50.00.012.8%250.0200.0150.0100.0442.9歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)2112.2%150.05.4%216.2100.0192.7182.9165.5156.8-5.3%30.8%25.4%24.9%28.524.217.8%%18.5335.620.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%12.2%150.05.4%216.2100.0192.7182.9165.5156.8-5.3%30.8%25.4%24.9%28.524.217.8%%18.5335.620.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%40.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.00.02019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E營收(億元)同比增速(%)50.016.6%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1EHHE及其增速2019H1-2023H1E青島啤酒凈利潤及其增速22250.0200.0200.0歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)79.484.571.44.0%-4.4%11.2%6.418.317.57.36.214.3%17.7%13.7%2.54.2%2.48.32019H12020H12021H79.484.571.44.0%-4.4%11.2%6.418.317.57.36.214.3%17.7%13.7%2.54.2%2.48.32019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1EHE148.0%9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0160.0%140.0%120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%90.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.02019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E308.0%%350.0%300.0%250.0%200.0%150.0%100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%23營收(億元)同比增速(%)歸母凈利潤(億元)同比增速(%)99.9242022Q32022Q4202399.9242022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q29794.899.7需求呈現(xiàn)復蘇走弱，產(chǎn)品結構優(yōu)化及推動高端化進程助力龍頭企業(yè)營收平穩(wěn)增長，4-6月規(guī)模以上企業(yè)乳制品產(chǎn)量分別同增乳制品類更具增長潛力奶類生產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)當季值9.5%8.9%1827.44.8%5.0%1769.31584.61454.81-2月5月同比增長(%)6月2688.40.5%300029.5%8.9%1827.44.8%5.0%1769.31584.61454.81-2月5月同比增長(%)6月2688.40.5%30002500200050000050002023年1-6月飲料產(chǎn)量3月4月飲料產(chǎn)量(萬噸)14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%25//23.0%//58.5//27.0%8.8%%9.4%0.62.540.6%27.0%//8.0//23.0%//58.5//27.0%8.8%%9.4%0.62.540.6%27.0%//8.0%//29.2//%3Q123Q2E23H1E3Q123Q2E23H1E3Q123Q2E23H1E24.1%30.0%27.2%5.06.111.144.3%49.0%%%%0.50.955.6%20.0%31.6%營收 (YoY)凈利潤 (億元)凈利潤 (YoY)263Q123Q2E23H1E//515.4//204.2334.4333.9668.324.929.754.66.37.725.252.3營收 (億元)7.7%3.0%5.7%36.227.463.62.7%5.0%3.8%注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報，蒙牛使用經(jīng)營利潤乳品、軟飲行業(yè)伊利股份蒙牛乳業(yè)農(nóng)夫山泉東鵬飲料新乳業(yè)天潤乳業(yè)乳業(yè)、軟飲代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻46.8%700.0600.0500.0400.0300.0200.0100.00.013.6%12.3%473.45.3%668.3632.15.7%449.763.661.353.215.2%9.6%37.43.8%37.700.0600.0500.0400.0300.0200.0100.00.013.6%12.3%473.45.3%668.3632.15.7%449.763.661.353.215.2%9.6%37.43.8%37.8-1.1%562.9HE42.2%20.0%18.0%16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%70.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.02019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E45.0%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%18.9%企業(yè)降價出貨)營收(億元)同比增速(%)2019H12020H12021H120222019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1E2715.6%477.2459.1398.6375.38.0%3.9%-5.8%143.8%8%16.029.233.3%20.8%%29.5-41.12.1515.437.725.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5