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MEETINGBRAZIL'SPOTENTIALASA
GREENECONOMY
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES
THEWORLDBANK
IBRD·IDAIWORLDBANKGROUP
DEC
2022
Keymessages
Brazilishighlyexposedtoclimate
riskandneedtotakeactiontoavoid
irreversibledamagetoitseconomy.
Globalclimatechangeandlocal
activitiesmaycontributetoreacha
tippingpointbeyondwhichlargeareas
oftheAmazonbasinwouldnolonger
beabletoprovidecrucialecosystem
services,causingirreversibledamage
tothestructureofthebiome.
Brazilisinanexceptionalpositiontoachieve
emissionsreductionatlowcostsandtobenefitfromclimateaction:itsenergysector(oneofthemostdifficulttodecarbonizeworldwide)alreadycomprisesaconsiderableshareofrenewables,
andmostofBrazil'sGHGemissionscomefrom
landconversionandagriculture,whichmakes
emissionsreductionarelativelylow-costoption.BasedonBrazil'sexperienceandtechnologyonlowenergy/forestmanagement,Brazilisinagreatpositiontoexportservicesandtechnologiesandbecomeagloballeaderinclimatechange.
Leveragingitsadvantagesingreenenergyandshiftingfroman
economicmodelbasedonresource
exploitationtoonebasedon
productivitygrowthcouldachieve
twoobjectives:enableBraziltogrowtseconomyandleadtoagreener,
richer,moresustainableandinclusivefuture.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022IMeetingBrazi'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Brazilcanachievenetzero
by2050bycombining:
Productivity-enhancing
measures,includingtradepolicy
reformstointegrateinglobalvalue
chainsbeyondcommoditiesandre-
balanceBrazil'sgrowthmodel,increase
efficiencyalongcriticalvaluechains,
developcompetitivenessingreenvalue
chains,leverageitslow-carbonenergy
matrixtobuildalowemissionindustrial
sector,andincreaseinvestmentin
infrastructure.
Economy-wideinterventions.
includingtwomainareas:(i)appropriate
pricing,throughsubsidyreformsandfiscal
reforms(includingcarbonpricing
mechanisms)toaligneconomicincentives;
and(i)measuresforresilienceandajust
transition,whichincludesinvestmentin
people'shealthandeducation,aswellas
relevantlaborandsocialprotection
interventions.
Sectoralinterventions.
including(i)curbingdeforestationandscalingupclimate-informedlandscapemanagement;(ii)
transitioningtogreenerandresilientenergy,transport,andinfrastructureforindustriesandmanufacturing,
and(ii)enablingresilientandlow-carboncities.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Whyclimate
actionnow?
Tomanageclimateimpacts
Toseizecompetitive
advantages
Tomeetnet-zerocommitments
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Whyclimateactionnow?
significantclimate
changeimpacts
1.Brazilfaces
2
Brazilisanagriculturalpowerhousebecauseofitshydrologicalconditions.
Deforestationandglobalclimatechangemightchangethis
Brazilalreadysuffersbecauseofchangingtemperatureandrainfallpatterns,reducedwateravailabilityandextendeddroughtsarebecomingmorefrequent,problemsare
expectedtoworsenovertime.Thishasimplicationsforhydropower(alreadyimpactsofwateravailabilityofupto20%),agriculture(80%rainfedagriculturewillsufferwithout
irrigationinfrastructure),andurbanwateruse,andthreatensBrazi'suniqueecosystems,especiallytheAmazonandCerradobiomes.
ExtremeweathereventsarealreadycausinglossesaveragingR$13billionperyear.
DisastersalsosignificantlydisruptBrazi'stransportandpowerinfrastructure,affecting
economiccompetitiveness.Thelow-incomeurbanareapopulation,especiallyresidentsofinformalsettlements(suchasslums),areparticularlyvulnerable.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
1.Brazilfaces
significantclimate
changeimpacts
Whyclimateactionnow?
TheAmazonapproachesapointofnoreturnbecauseofthecombinationofclimatechange,ongoinglandspeculationanddeforestation.Withfurtherforestlossand
degradation,Brazilcouldsoonreachatippingpointbeyondwhichlargeareasofthe
Amazonbasin,withinandoutsideBrazil,wouldnolongerhaveenoughrainfalltosupportthenativeecosystemsorprovideessentialecosystemservicestoBrazil'seconomy.TheprojectedimpactfromapotentialAmazontippingpointonBrazi'scumulativeGDPto2050hasbeenconservativelyestimatedataboutRS920billion(US$184billion).
Climateshockscouldpushadditional800.000to3.000.0000Braziliansintoextremepovertyassoonas2030.Economicmodelingshowshowclimate-relatedreductionsinagriculturalincome,extremeweatherevents,foodpricechanges,impactsonhealth,andreducedlaborproductivityduetoheatcouldexacerbatepoverty.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Whyclimateactionnow?
2.Brazilisexceptionallywell-
positionedtobenefitfromit
Brazil'semissionsprofilediffersfromthatofmostcountrybecauseofthelowshare
ofenergyandindustry(costlier-to-abatesectors)andthehighshareofland
use/forestryandagriculture(cheapertoabate).
LandusechangefromdeforestationandagriculturedominateBrazil'sGHG
2
3
emissions,accountingformorethan50percentofallemissions,comparedwith20
percentglobally,withdeforestationbeingresponsibleforthetotalityofthenetincrease
inrecentyears(butalsoofthenetdecreaseintheearly2000s).
Brazilhasalreadyoneofthemostdecarbonizedenergysectorsintheworldwith
adaptedandtestedtechnologyinplace.Renewablesaccountforroughly48percentof
theBrazilianenergymatrixandover80percentofitspowermatrix,comparedtoworld
averagesofapproximately15percentand27percent,respectively.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Whyclimateactionnow?
exceptionallywell-
5
ThecarbonintensityofBrazilianindustrialproductionislowerthanthatof
OECDandotherBRICScountries,providingastrongcompetitiveadvantageinadecarbonizingworld.
Brazilhasglobalcomparativeadvantagesinseveralgreenvaluechainsand
couldbecomeagloballeaderinexportingservicesandgoods,includingintheproductionofwindturbine,climatesmartagriculture,ethanol,greensteel
production,forestmanagement,electricbuses;batteries,andgreenhydrogen.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Brazilcanachievenet-zeroby2050byadoptingsectoralinterventions,structuralreforms,andeconomy-widepolicies
Onepossiblepathtonet-zero(seegraph)canbe
achievedbypursuing
Netzerodeforestation:zeroillegaldeforestationby2028andnetzeroby2050.
Negativeemissionsfromvariousformsofenhancedlanduse:
commercialplantations(nativeandexotic)andrestoration,climatesmart
agricultureandagroforestry,integratedlandmanagementsystems,pasture
restoration,protectedareas(reaching-600MtCO2eperyearnegativeemissions).
Agriculturalproductivitygainsinalreadyopenlandandatthesametimeeffective
restrictionofforestlands.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Brazilcanachievenet-zeroby2050byadoptingsectoralinterventions,
structuralreforms,andeconomy-widepolicies
Onepossiblepathtonet-zero(seegraph)
canbeachievedbypursuing(continued):
5
6
Shiftingthepowersystemtowardsasignificantincreaseinrenewable
electricity(upto99percent).
Higherelectrificationratesandhydrogendeploymentinthetransportsector,
andmodalshiftfromroadtransportationtowardsrailandwaterways,and
higherparticipationofpublictransportinurbanareas.
Transitiontolowcarbonfuelsinhighenergy-usesectors.
Reductionofemissionsinwaste,energyuseinindustryandagriculture,fuel
production,andbuildings.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy10
WhataretheWorldBank
recommendations?
SECTORALMEASURES:
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Curbingdeforestation
Climate-smartagriculture
Greenerandmoreresilientenergy
Greenerandmoreresilienttransport
Low-carboncities
1
Sectoralinterventions
Curbingdeforestationanddeveloping
Brazil'sforesteconomy:
CurbingdeforestationisBrazil'ssingle,mosteffectivetooltoreduceGHG
emissionsandreachnetzeroby2050.Brazilhasthecapacityandthepolicy
instrumentstocurbillegaldeforestation,asshownbetween2004and2012,withadropofdeforestationbymorethan80percentevenduringatimeofhigh
commodityprices,whichreducedGHGemissionsbymorethan65percent.
Actionsincludestrengtheningforestlawenforcementandgovernance,addresslandgrabbingandextensivecattleranching,andfacilitatejusttransitionforruralhouseholds.AtthesametimeBrazilsforesteconomycansignificantlybenefitfromtheemergingcarbonmarketandtakeadvantageofdegradedlands.
Mtigalionpotential(MiCOzeyr')
35
30
25
20
Medium-large —Undesig/i
properties
15
10
5
0
—Smallproperties
—Ruralsettlement
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy12
Sectoralinterventions
Enhanceenforcementof
environmentallegislationbyadequatelystrengthening
satellitemonitoringofforests
(PRODES,DETER)and
environmentalenforcementagenciesthroughresourcing.
training,andinteragency
collaboration.
Mandatethe
interoperabilityand
integrationofthemultiple
landcadastersand
registriesandmodernize
andacceleratetheland
registration,analysis,and
validationprocesses.
Investinmoreaccessibleand
simplerdisputeresolutionsystems(arbitration,
mediation,andother
administrativeprocedures)andenforcecrediblepenaltiesfor
illegaloccupationand
deforestationoflandand
relatedland-grabbingactivities.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022IMeetingBrazi'spotentialasagreeneconomy13
Sectoralinterventions
Curbingdeforestationanddevelop
Rrazil'sforesteconomy
Completethemappinganddesignationofallundesignatedpublic
rurallands,includingthedesignation,mapping,demarcationand
registrationofallfederalandstateprotectedareas,indigenouspeoples'lands,agrarianreformsettlements.
Prioritizeinterventionsinmunicipalitieswiththehighest
2
deforestationratestoattackillegaldeforestationmoreefficientlyandavoidtheexpansionofthedeforestationfrontier.
Prioritizeinvestmentsineducationandhealthcareservicesinremote
Amazonvillages,includingIndigenousPeoplesandtraditional
communities,smallfarmerstoreducepovertyinthefrontier.
Createtheenablingenvironmentforaconservationfriendlyforest
economydevelopmentintheAmazon.Brazilhasthehighestforestryyieldgloballythankstofavorableclimaticconditionsanddecadesof
researchandcouldexpandtotheAmazon.Acombinationofappropriatefinancingmechanisms,pairedwithcarbonfinance,investmentsin
logisticsandfiscalincentiveswouldallowtheprivatesectortoinvestinanewforesteconomyintheAmazon,CerradoandMataAtlantica.
5.
SupportbioeconomydevelopmentforcommunitiesintheAmazonforests,includingNontimberforestproducts,fisheriesand
agroforestry.Developingmarketaccess,improvelogistics,development
oflocalcapacityandresearchandfacilitationofprivatecommunitypartnershipsintheAmazonwillprovideasustainableincometo
communitiesasanalternativetoillegalexplorationofnaturalresources.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy14
Sectoralinterventions
Scalingupclimate-smartandresilient
agricultureandsustainable
landscapemanagement
TheBrazilianagriculturesectorneedstoshifttowardamoreclimate-
smartagriculturetoachievesimultaneously(i)increasedproductivity
(particularlyamongstthepoorestfarmers),(ii)enhancedresilienceofthesectorandfarmerstowardsclimateshocksand,(i)reducedemissions(byenhancingcarbonstorageinsoilsandfosteringtheuseoflow-carbonpractices).
Implementationofarangeofpolicymeasuresandsupportforscalingupclimate-informedlandscapemanagementandfosteringclimate-smartagriculturewillneedtobetailoredacrossandwithinbiomesandrewardclimatesmartandresilientmanagementofnaturalassets.
Reformingandretargetingexistingfinancingprogramsandincentivesto
furtherpromotetheadoptionoflow-carbonandresilientagriculturepracticesbyscalinguptheABC+program,andincreasingloanslimitsforfarmerswithanapprovedEnvironmentalRegularizationProgram(PRA);Dedicatedsupporttothepoorestfamilyfarmersshouldbeenhanced,includingsupporttofamily
farmers'CARregistrationtoallowthemtoaccessruralcredit.
Changingtheparametersofthelandtax(ITR)torewardtheadoptionofgoodpracticesandtheefficientuseofareasthatcanbefarmedorranched.
Supportextensionservices,anddisseminationofbestpracticesonclimate
smartagriculture.
Fosterresearchonclimatesmartagricultureandlandscapemanagement(in
particularonintegratedagro-sylvo-pastoralsystems,agroforestryandonoptionstoreducemethaneemissionsfromcattle).
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022IMeetingBrazi'spotentialasagreeneconomy15
Percent(%)
Sectoralinterventions
Scalingupclimate-smartandresilient
agricultureandsustainable
landscapemanagement
Increasetheuseofclimate-risksmanagementtoolssuchasinsuranceinstrumentsandcoverageforagriculturalproductiontocatalyzeclimateresilienceandproductivitygains.
Enhancinginvolvementoftheprivatesectorindeliveringmarketsolutionsfor
sustainablefoodsystems,byscaling-upgreencertificationsandlow-carbonsustainabletraceabilityprotocols,aswellascarbonmarketinitiatives.
Supportforest-basedeconomicactivities,bystrengtheningthe
implementationoftheforestcodebyscalinguptheCadastroAmbientalRural(CAR)andenablinginvestmentsinagroforestryandallowtradingofAPPrights.
Ensuringajusttransitiontoavoidadverseimpactonformal
andinformallaborinruralareas.
Potentialforproductivitygainsfrom
differentlandusestrategies
Year
DeforestationDetorestatior
TotalCropwith—TotalCrwihut—CropinCroplandsOnlyCattle
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022IMeetingBrazi'spotentialasagreeneconomy
Sectoralinterventions
Brazilpowersystemcanbedecarbonizedwithout
additionalcosts,asloweroperatingcostswouldcompensateinvestmentneeds.Anet-zeroPowerSystem(NZPS)would
costonlymarginallymorethanbusinessasusual.
Beyondelectricitygeneration,Brazilcouldinvestto
efficientlydecarbonizetransportandindustry.TheDeepDecarbonizationoftheEnergySystem(DDES)assumes
increasedlevelofelectrificationandtheuseofgreen
hydrogenforfuelswitchandexportatcomparableeconomy-widecostsbutrequireconsiderableupfrontinvestments.
Reducesupportforinefficientandcostlyfossil-fuelpowergeneration,includingreplacingplansofinstalling8GWofnewthermalwithincreasedrenewableenergycapacityandstorage,avoidingsignificativefinancialandeconomiccosts.
UseBrazil'scomparativeadvantageinthegreensupplychains:greenhydrogen,e-buses,batterycomponents.Thiswouldalsoaccelerateitsenergy
transition,diversifyexports,andattract
investment.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022IMeetingBrazi'spotentialasagreeneconomy17
Sectoralinterventions
Greenerandmoreresilienttransportinfrastructure
BrazilcouldadopttheAvoid-Shift-Improveframeworktodecarbonizeits
transportsystemandmakeitmoreinclusive:
Traveldemandcanbereducedthroughmorecompactandmixed-useurbandevelopment,whichcanalsoimprove
people'saccesstoservicesandeconomicopportunities.Low
EmissionZonesinlargecitiescanreduceemissionsand
generateincomethatcanbeusedtoimprovepublic
transportservices.
Achievingamodalshiftinfreightwillrequirelarge
investmentsinrailwaysandwaterways,whilemodalshiftin
passengertransportwillrequireimprovingpublictransit
serviceandpassengerrail.
Proactiveinvestmentstomaketheroadnetwork
moreresilienttonaturalhazardswouldincreaseupfront
costbutpaybackovertime(with2xreturnovereach$1
invested).
Improvetheenergyefficiencyoffreighttransport,
includingbyincreasedelectrification,oftrucksand
locomotivesorshiftingtohydrogenfuels.Investments
willalsobeneededtoelectrifybusesandlightvehicles,to
coverthecostsofvehiclesaswellascharging
infrastructure.
However,retrofittingroadsoutsidethenormalreplacementschedulehasabenefit-costratiobelow1,except
forthemostcriticalassets(suchasthemaincorridorsforsoyexports).
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy18
Sectoralinterventions
Low-carbon,more
resilientcities
With87percentofthepopulationliving
inurbanareasandincreaseddisaster
hazards,actionstomakecitieslow-
carbon,moreresilientandinclusiveisa
toppriority:climateactionincities
requiresstrongerurbanplanning.
management,accesstofinanceand
public-privatecoordination.
Buildcapacityatmunicipallevelformorecoordinated
urbandevelopmentplanningandmanagementand
securefinancingtoinvestinmultipleareas(e.g.urban,
water,transport,waste),includingthroughincreased
privatesectorengagementandinvestinginnature-based
andgreyinfrastructuremeasurestoaugmenturban
resilience.
Supportland-useandurbanplanningthatincrease
densitythroughcompacturbanformandtransit-
orienteddevelopmentcouldhaveastrongimpactin
reducingGHGemissionsbutalsoinincreasing
productivity
Developanex-antestrategyforthefinancial
managementofdisastersandsupporttothemost
exposedcities.
ReduceGHGemissionsfromcitiesbypromoting:Greenbuildingcertificationprograms,SolidWasteManagementsystemthatincludemethanecaptureanddestruction,Traveldemandmanagementmeasuresthatmayswitchuserstoadditionaluseofpublictransport,and
Introductionofcleanfuelalternativesinthepublictransportfleet.
Investinurbanresilience,toaddressthecombined
challengesofsocialexclusion,laggingaccessto
infrastructureandservices,andvulnerabilitytoextremeclimaticevents,throughacombinationof"hard"and"soft"interventions.Large-scaleclimate-adaptiveinfrastructuresolutionscombinedwithnon-structuralmeasuressuchasstrengtheningearlywarninganddisasterpreparedness
andresponsesystems.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy19
WhataretheWorldBank
recommendations?
ECONOMY-WIDE
MEASURES
Carbonpricinginstruments
Productivityenhancingmeasures
Climateadaptivesocialprotection
systems
Financingclimateaction
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy20
real2021Ussbn
01
Economy-widemeasures
Pricingmechanismtoalign
economicincentives
Brazil'staxsystemcouldbecomemore
productivity-enhancingandgreener.ProposalsfortaxreformsinBrazilhavebeendebatedforseveralyearsandcouldprovideanopportunitytopursue
theimplementationofarevenue-neutralcarbontax,whilerevisingandeventuallyphasingoutsubsidiestoemission-intensiveactivities.
Acarbonpricingmechanismcouldbecreated
throughmultiplemechanisms,includingan
emissiontradingsystem(ETS),acarbontax,oramixofinstruments.
Aneconomy-widecarbonchargeonfossilfuelscouldraiseaboutR$150
billion(1.3%ofGDP)inrevenuefromfossilfuelsby2030,whichcouldinturnbeusedtopromoteproductivity,inclusion,andadaptation.Becauseacarbonpricingpolicycanhavedetrimentalimpactsonequity,ashareoftheincomewouldneedtobeusedtoprotectthesectionofthepopulationmostaffectedbypriceshocks.
AnETScouldacceleratedecarbonizationandleverageglobalcarbon
markets.TheBrazilianCongressisdiscussingabillonnationalETSfocusingontheindustrysector.ApreliminarystepfortheestablishmentofanETS
wouldbethecreationofameasuring,reporting,andverification(MRV)systemforlargeGHGemitters.AgricultureandLULUCFarenotgoodcontendersforanETS,butforestoffsetscouldprovideopportunitiesforemissionreductions.
FiscalrevenuesbnUSS(hs)
d09%
-Fiscalrevenues%ofGDP(rhs)
real20211USsbn
■Coal
□Gasoline
DREsubsidies
ONaturalODiesel
oNel
gas
Non-roadoil
OLPG&kerosene
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy21
Economy-widemeasures
02
deforestation.Keypolicymeasuresinclude:
Boostingproductivitythroughdeeperregionalandglobaltradeintegration:Tradepolicyreformthat
createopportunitiestointegrateinregionalandglobalvaluechainsbeyondprimarycommodities.
Improvingthebusinessclimate.Reducingthe"Custo
Brasil"throughbusinessenvironmentreformsandadoptingareformofthetaxsystem.
Promotinginnovationandtechnologicaladoptionbyrevampingthecurrentunderperforminginnovation
policies.
Modernizinginfrastructure:Toclosethe
infrastructuregap,Brazilwillneedtosignificantlyincreaseitsinvestmentsininfrastructure,buttheadditionalneedslinkedtoclimatechangedonotchangedrasticallythischallenge
Placinglearningbackontherighttrack:Reducing
drop-outrates,reversinglearninglossesandincreasingthequalityofeducation.
Thesemeasuresare
discussedinmoredetailinthepolicynoteson
growth(here),
infrastructure(here)andeducation(here).
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy22
03
Economy-widemeasures
Adaptivesocialprotectionpoliciesto
ensureajusttransition
Climatepoliciescanalsohaveundesirableeffectsthatneedtobemanagedthroughappropriatecomplementaryinterventions.Forinstance,acarbonpricingpolicycouldhavedetrimentalimpactsonequity,unlessashareofthe
revenuesisusedtoprotectthebottomofthepopulationmostaffectedbypriceshocks.
Investmentinhumancapitalandsocialprotectionandactivelaborpoliciescan
actasanenablerforresilienceanddecarbonization.Thetransitionfrom“non-greenjobs"canleadtolong-termimpactsoncertaingroupsofworkers.Activelabormarketprogramsandunemploymentinsurancecanbeimportantfor
increasingemployabilityofthosedisplacedbythegreentransitionbyadaptingtheirskillsetto"greenjobs"
StrengthenBrazil'ssocialprotectionsystemtohelpvulnerablepopulationsadapttoclimatetransformationsandclimateshocks.AnAdaptiveSocial
Protection(ASP)systemcombinesdifferentsectoralapproachesofSocial
Protection,DisasterRiskManagement,andClimateChangeAdaptationtobuild
theresilienceofthepoorandvulnerablebyenhancingtheircapacitytopreparefor,copewith,andadapttocovariateshocks.Brazil'sSPsystemiswellestablished
butthereisroomtoexpanditscapacitytorespondtoshocksandtomodernizethesocialregistrywithinformationonvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.
Socialprotectioncansupportthemitigationofclimatechangethrough
programsfocusingonreducingdeforestationorrestorationofecosystems.
SocialprotectioncanhelpthemitigationofdeforestationthroughPaymentforEnvironmentalServices(PES)orthroughPublicWorksPrograms.PESprogramssuchasthediscontinuednationalBolsaVerdeprogramortheongoingBolsa
FlorestaprograminthestateofAmazonascanserveasimportantSPinterventionsforforestcommunities.
BRAZILPOLICYNOTES2022|MeetingBrazil'spotentialasagreeneconomy23
PuttingitTogether
Investmentneeds&FinancingOptions
AmongCCDRcountriestodate,economiccostsinBrazilareamongthe
lowest,reflectingBrazil'spotentialtoreconciledevelopmentandtheclimateagendaandbecomealeaderintheglobaldecarbonizationeffort.
Prelimi
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