項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理培訓(xùn)教材

項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理113.1

項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理概述13.2項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別4.3項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)13.3

13.4項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理13.5項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控13.6案例分析2某項(xiàng)工程需要確定未來一個(gè)月是否開工,若開工,天氣好,工程可按期完工,獲利10萬元;若天氣不好,則要損失2萬元.如果不開工,則不論天氣好壞,均要付出窩工費(fèi)0.2萬元.根據(jù)歷史資料,下月天氣好的概率0.3,天氣不好概率0.7,決策是否開工.引導(dǎo)案例31蟲3所.敢1托項(xiàng)袋目迎風(fēng)惹險(xiǎn)薄管口理糠概牙述1撇3伙.凡1劣.偏1悼風(fēng)刑險(xiǎn)料的晉定幣義1攜.黃風(fēng)旁險(xiǎn)倦是牌指扛不報(bào)良蛾后還果未或通損杯失渾、湖災(zāi)劑難優(yōu)發(fā)閃生肆的掌危仿險(xiǎn)掠和癢機(jī)落會(huì)椒。2鵲.孩風(fēng)糠險(xiǎn)直是繩損拳失些發(fā)報(bào)生逢的發(fā)不哀確司定兇性賞，裹即廳風(fēng)浸險(xiǎn)垃由伐不沒確渾定蔽性們和馬損失薪兩游個(gè)錢要切素借構(gòu)憐成侵。3糧.殖風(fēng)貿(mào)險(xiǎn)鋪是暖在滅一君定趁條世件絡(luò)下傳，酬一懂定豎期騙限咽內(nèi)鉆，庸某盯一塘事桑件浪其預(yù)圓期贏結(jié)點(diǎn)果縫與殖實(shí)掃際技結(jié)訴果聚之倡間的只變遮動(dòng)增程垃度伸。彼變愈動(dòng)豎程蹈度越檢大鞏，挪風(fēng)勤險(xiǎn)竿越賽大養(yǎng)。4純鄰粹曬風(fēng)幣險(xiǎn)矩：對配于磚只鑼能脫帶訪來威損前失辭的每風(fēng)蔥險(xiǎn)侄，茂可龍稱昂之虛為魂純休粹政風(fēng)唇險(xiǎn)坑，咳一械般廣由詠外嫩部央不兩確作定館因遭素脫引數(shù)起欲。投路機(jī)穗風(fēng)絞險(xiǎn)恒：對塌于熟既誓能吵帶蕩來委損凈失頃又學(xué)能綱帶慨來烏收偏益甚的游風(fēng)肢險(xiǎn)當(dāng)，立可殿稱舅之鞠為藍(lán)投重機(jī)言風(fēng)組險(xiǎn)惠，念如類市定場欲狀聲況限的怎變墨化案。5風(fēng)糟險(xiǎn)脅是責(zé)客貸觀伶存誰在鍬的濾，資不頸以逢人評的傭意番識(shí)殼而梳改芳變風(fēng)摔險(xiǎn)浪的參大洽小送可膝以臨衡宜量風(fēng)場險(xiǎn)差的致性自質(zhì)金和唉大商小錦可川能男發(fā)兆生裕變例化圾。6風(fēng)膊險(xiǎn)糕具抱備爸下懶列煌要拍素屆：事謹(jǐn)件售（路不而希逃望肺發(fā)刻生唉的告變羨化怎）事怖件沉發(fā)蛇生且的交概挺率事樓件貴的紗影蒼響掉（鉤后男果)風(fēng)正險(xiǎn)惡的癢原陶因每騾個(gè)買事賤件聾的矛風(fēng)膨險(xiǎn)良可防以欄定意義惜為他不吊確由定劉性家和隊(duì)后狠果乓的倡函趟數(shù)風(fēng)矛險(xiǎn)檢＝f（事?lián)s，絞不娃確齊定眨性釘，齒后減果皆）7風(fēng)贊險(xiǎn)定管姥理早是木識(shí)自別泉和咸評志估兇風(fēng)陪險(xiǎn)條，統(tǒng)建冰立截、遮選歌擇向、倘管幫理金和鼻解殊決金風(fēng)萌險(xiǎn)很的見可千選舟方隸案條的炕組晉織緒方舅法釣。風(fēng)握險(xiǎn)陶管摘理尤定助義范包過括桶：風(fēng)形險(xiǎn)勵(lì)管僻理敏是溝系傷統(tǒng)改識(shí)尚別朽和旺評街估斧風(fēng)擱險(xiǎn)澆因漏素耗的它形薦式萬化牧過施程巾；風(fēng)拆險(xiǎn)往管媽理引是籮識(shí)民別腰和潤控諸制網(wǎng)能斤夠陡引裹起偉不瓶希倆望屢的鬧變共化意的俯潛削在溪領(lǐng)責(zé)域照和泄事吼件喘的跪形雨式感、蜂系應(yīng)統(tǒng)議的福方悼法滑；在漁項(xiàng)腰目膊中跌，浙風(fēng)撒險(xiǎn)戶管飲理聰是塘在銀項(xiàng)丸目捆期鞋間縫識(shí)州別鑰、咱分鄙析瞞風(fēng)為險(xiǎn)盼因涼素煮，猾采變?nèi)「伪刂纫磳εげ甙偷母禌Q稅策豆科少學(xué)駝和國決敗策倦藝蛾術(shù)盡的倍結(jié)患合蔬。1懶3網(wǎng).姨1分.拉2支風(fēng)魂險(xiǎn)建管憶理植的滋定范義81油3陸.經(jīng)1佩項(xiàng)鞭目逢風(fēng)帆險(xiǎn)兔管示理呀概躬述1井3扔.擺1執(zhí).丹3盤項(xiàng)刊目蘿風(fēng)寄險(xiǎn)綿的代概褲念P狹M喚B識(shí)O吐K甜把蛛風(fēng)睡險(xiǎn)腰定氧義門為蜂“咽一都旦蕉發(fā)籌生亭，格會(huì)徒對閃項(xiàng)璃目來目體標(biāo)郵產(chǎn)演生簡積存極積或疏消畏極王影油響悅的元不司確沾定節(jié)事鏡件逐或撞者當(dāng)情舉況如”碌。9在切項(xiàng)鞋目賽生名命灑周樂期勿內(nèi)分，棵風(fēng)柏險(xiǎn)槐因睬素窄有勤物榆質(zhì)末風(fēng)企險(xiǎn)門因悟素裳和班人原為攝風(fēng)狗險(xiǎn)禮因遭素浸兩紗類物窯質(zhì)襖風(fēng)瓣險(xiǎn)秒因處素遣：炭看貞得街見沒，題影獨(dú)響副損閃失岔概墨率衣和黑程發(fā)度獨(dú)的卸環(huán)看境匆條巡壽件算。人姐為郵風(fēng)酬險(xiǎn)嗓因居素飾：朋與易人獸們泰的器心爆理那和育行閃為益有勤關(guān)基的回一票種嚷無狂形并因集素（月道角德間風(fēng)織險(xiǎn)混和倍行侮為證風(fēng)有險(xiǎn)舒）搜。項(xiàng)搏目釋風(fēng)常險(xiǎn)蕉產(chǎn)螞生外的場原依因危拆險(xiǎn)技因川素鮮結(jié)浪合訓(xùn)說預(yù)幼想散和雞結(jié)拆果裕變兼動(dòng)練說1音0項(xiàng)諒目禾風(fēng)撲險(xiǎn)惕的紀(jì)特駝?wù)骺鸵嘤^爐性普反遍異性偶旨然麥性必少然蔽性可齡變漂性1煙11握3刷.俘1掩項(xiàng)令目被風(fēng)氣險(xiǎn)媽管鞭理久概叨述1氧3紡.末1淹.帶3城項(xiàng)曠目鴨風(fēng)嚇險(xiǎn)割的閱概扛念風(fēng)郊險(xiǎn)趴的岡相濱對所性對扇于先項(xiàng)蒸目薯風(fēng)辛險(xiǎn)充，仁人尊們系的陜承冬受狠能凳力錯(cuò)主些要舒受井下撇列饅幾昏個(gè)周因妥素控的陡影疊響忽：收汪益景的鞋大閥小投甚入萌的械大逢小項(xiàng)尺目期風(fēng)辛險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)成慘本由陽于猛項(xiàng)百目煉風(fēng)墊險(xiǎn)般的姓存漲在銹和另項(xiàng)株目正風(fēng)軋險(xiǎn)識(shí)事登故覆發(fā)升生敢后憂，檢人倚們廟必杏須沃支噴出觀的烏費(fèi)駁用悔和拾預(yù)喪期性項(xiàng)詠目左效課益脆的蠅減聽少灣。稅主拌要襯包選括揀：項(xiàng)亞目鹽風(fēng)加險(xiǎn)晨損嚴(yán)失蠅的語實(shí)博際抽成推本無島形取成連本預(yù)辮防府與維處額理語風(fēng)麗險(xiǎn)負(fù)的拆費(fèi)仰用1賓21坊3扛.蠅1暫項(xiàng)退目密風(fēng)閃險(xiǎn)川管歸理活概宮述1母3田.頓1掉.龍4筍項(xiàng)侄目灘風(fēng)犬險(xiǎn)凳管軟理悔的包定桿義春和南作僻用1區(qū)、斬項(xiàng)頓目讀風(fēng)維險(xiǎn)視管緞理拐定雨義項(xiàng)伴目悔風(fēng)悼險(xiǎn)竟管訂理貪是犧指衛(wèi)項(xiàng)愿目版管黃理爺組閥織廟對舌項(xiàng)嗚目婆可肆能挪遇血到艷的樓風(fēng)翅險(xiǎn)虛進(jìn)粱行圓規(guī)鞠劃黃、屑識(shí)攻別國、爪估蝴計(jì)校、逗評寬價(jià)夏、獵應(yīng)怨對料、酒監(jiān)云控淚的態(tài)過尤程哀，璃是役以炒科寫學(xué)肺的服管沖理站方岔法盲實(shí)可現(xiàn)勿最渣大巷安放全酸保奇障啦的飛實(shí)兼踐壞活歉動(dòng)銷總科稱悔。1怖32艇、齒風(fēng)賴險(xiǎn)闖管辟理申同圖項(xiàng)日目寶管財(cái)理浪的怪關(guān)西系從游項(xiàng)盒目術(shù)的鵲成儀本叨、狀時(shí)伍間隔和串質(zhì)沸量帆目規(guī)標(biāo)眼來抱看趴，碌風(fēng)貪險(xiǎn)捆管喝理寒和誼項(xiàng)殿目串管妥理朋目夢標(biāo)讀一蹦致跟；項(xiàng)刃目衣范夏圍類管擦理尼：也風(fēng)憤險(xiǎn)孫管銜理揉通個(gè)過豬風(fēng)俱險(xiǎn)乏分偵析柿來費(fèi)識(shí)逢別椒、匙估鉤計(jì)畏和接評偉價(jià)奸這由些宵不獻(xiàn)確茂定紛性攔，桑向西項(xiàng)匹目趁范摔圍錫管宵理步提策出苦任躬?jiǎng)?wù)饑；風(fēng)屠險(xiǎn)掠管知理敗為予項(xiàng)單目愉計(jì)畢劃輪提揉供早了趣依敢據(jù)諸；從外項(xiàng)螞目掘的常成芝本辦管雹理瓶職筑能助來濕看庸，贊項(xiàng)曉目途風(fēng)刪險(xiǎn)益通站過譯風(fēng)榜險(xiǎn)雀分紫析柱，縱指般出菌有忘哪嬸些靠可毒能廊的勇意病外剃費(fèi)篩用博，崗并尼估校計(jì)單意塑外習(xí)費(fèi)敢用呢的但多雖少盼。從測項(xiàng)躲目坡的拉實(shí)慕施寇過絲式程岔來嗽看擇，鮮許攻多箭風(fēng)著險(xiǎn)高都黑在先項(xiàng)洞目李實(shí)悠施飯過訊程回中食由群潛猶在楊變賢成漲現(xiàn)圍實(shí)右；項(xiàng)老目雀人吉力記資切源閑管唉理河的慰許氧多江內(nèi)流容央也竊是息項(xiàng)債目腰風(fēng)盒險(xiǎn)憐管詳理姓的稱范江圍殊。1迷43惹、什風(fēng)貫險(xiǎn)扔管箱理路的根作營用通滅過蘇風(fēng)很險(xiǎn)辣分籃析勺，艇可嫩使夜項(xiàng)體目診相難關(guān)厚人爭員謊加篇深貫對蛋項(xiàng)投目裁和扛風(fēng)棗險(xiǎn)牧的含認(rèn)類識(shí)即和揚(yáng)理悄解嘆，身澄六清命各岔方羊案傻的燒利只弊蛋，供了你解研風(fēng)術(shù)險(xiǎn)煮對觸項(xiàng)篇目予的離影滋響溪，屈以易便糊減撓少飼或堪分毫散禁風(fēng)否險(xiǎn)泥；通檢過真檢子查慌和算考棚慮估所筑有尿到廊手稿信老息劫、律數(shù)柿據(jù)量和票資燥料凈，誓可法明懇確惹項(xiàng)愈目子的宗各蠶有滅關(guān)扣前竿提屈和胃假膽設(shè)暢；提境高掙項(xiàng)演目怪各撐種怠計(jì)貪劃其的燦可娃信肺度奏，藍(lán)有冬利滴于心改欲善念項(xiàng)香目玻執(zhí)榜行險(xiǎn)組靠織研內(nèi)而部蠢和囑外小部斬之股間再的辭溝益通帥；編尤制村應(yīng)副急步計(jì)俘劃抄時(shí)桐更詠有悠針至對鍋性分；1溉5能放夠恢將懸處岸理辨風(fēng)竟險(xiǎn)繼后擊果堤的鋒各廚種溉方許式撕更享靈疤活鬼的鳳組住合困起域來覆，囑在建項(xiàng)伶目叢管棟理蘿中率減傳少麗被稱動(dòng)魄，提增冬加烈主喘動(dòng)季；有雀利行于歸抓沃住菌機(jī)弓會(huì)亮，岔利落用墨機(jī)根會(huì)蟲；為進(jìn)以督后久的尊規(guī)死劃伏和惠實(shí)戲際槐工恩作幻玉提失供節(jié)反箭饋非，捎以另便耍在也規(guī)喚劃惡和紫設(shè)娃計(jì)盜階數(shù)段己采柄取喘措畢施肢防研止怎和謙避倦免工風(fēng)嗎險(xiǎn)其損際失糊；即距使理無速法童避戶免物風(fēng)粥險(xiǎn)精，睡也蝴能卵明河確最項(xiàng)攝目謊到紐奉底宴應(yīng)耗該也承呼受占多備大命損侄失玩或粱損有害綱；為金項(xiàng)霧目你施者工蹈、熔運(yùn)憂營的選晌擇累合漿同庭形葬式啊和崇制茂定閉應(yīng)帳急遞計(jì)堪劃稻提抱供懷依捐據(jù)扮；決瘡策敬更經(jīng)加事有居把黨握犧，顯更泄符攻合糕項(xiàng)也目費(fèi)的闖方袋針欺和栽目味標(biāo)懼，郵總視體撤上誘減鳳少壩風(fēng)場險(xiǎn)脾；可局推鍵動(dòng)尊項(xiàng)狗目藝執(zhí)胳行蠶組坊織彎和銷管稍理炮班他子焰積剛累芬有沿關(guān)俱風(fēng)偶險(xiǎn)技的副資法料脆和抽數(shù)米據(jù)割，懶以釀便爭改籮進(jìn)吼將舟來圖的滋項(xiàng)答目餃管鐮理宜。1捏6按運(yùn)項(xiàng)尾目就分灣類王，曬風(fēng)棗險(xiǎn)憑管情理賣尤償其某適蜻用領(lǐng)于憲以鵝下寶一任些桑項(xiàng)養(yǎng)目貢：①簡研園發(fā)庸項(xiàng)余目狂。羅諸姓如犬軍糠方殼型暢號(hào)憤研鋤制夸項(xiàng)射目左，朵由蜜于匙其廟研閣制祝與巴生而產(chǎn)完規(guī)襯模岡大暖、錄周竭期廉長瞞、醫(yī)技夸術(shù)拆復(fù)填雜站性缸和蝕生貴產(chǎn)辮的酬小躬批刻量見性丘等銀特揭點(diǎn)譽(yù)，拐在蜻實(shí)宣施披過塞程沙中雨存湯在喚著鏡諸搏多取不娃確賊定計(jì)因披素券，恩比陷一稅般超項(xiàng)線目掩具線有蘆更淚大燙的嗽風(fēng)悔險(xiǎn)處，買進(jìn)常行佛風(fēng)懂險(xiǎn)半管亡理昆尤脂為苗重絮要辯。②食現(xiàn)薦代妄大跑型銅工救程滾項(xiàng)貿(mào)目阿。燥這信些婦項(xiàng)看目掉往夫往拉投漢資面大禿、侄施臭工揭環(huán)乘境搬復(fù)滅雜涼，部項(xiàng)甲目元實(shí)波施翅過兩程棟中墊不費(fèi)確什定恭因鞋素莫很逝多猾，猜同畢時(shí)稱，堤傳繩統(tǒng)和風(fēng)婆險(xiǎn)吳管陵理已的交一都些發(fā)手籃段庸如溉保拌險(xiǎn)彩應(yīng)右用戶到釋這怎些騰大單型返工清程兇項(xiàng)而目澡時(shí)漸是竹有矮局堵限誤性腿的貍，嚼這失些紡都卵促廉使憤現(xiàn)非代府大澤型宴項(xiàng)廁目背需篩要觀更利有報(bào)效脈的疤風(fēng)下險(xiǎn)旱管困理扯。③惠國齒際打承顫包眉工黃程允項(xiàng)篇目剩。1孕7創(chuàng)隙新址多倚、桑使酒用證新仇技王術(shù)雄多撞的頭項(xiàng)估目占；預(yù)棄研固不揉充顫分罷，余不悠確捎定盒因爽素笑多企的略項(xiàng)忌目豬；項(xiàng)什目釀目搏標(biāo)醋沒耕有胞最貞終制確畜定寺的朵項(xiàng)緩目睬；投倡資振數(shù)桂額輩大倉的馳項(xiàng)摸目荒；邊捕設(shè)齒計(jì)取、暗邊宜施承工星、邊邊劑科惱研圍的自項(xiàng)拒目色；合挽作脊關(guān)舒系決復(fù)劍雜驢的描項(xiàng)秘目艙；受窮多佩種武因揉素檢制原約億和吐受蒜業(yè)失主服嚴(yán)叫格釀要微求珠的易項(xiàng)酬目革；具捷有視重像要橋政恢治督、牽軍默事憤、畢經(jīng)需濟(jì)識(shí)、胸社寫會(huì)嬌意亭義逢項(xiàng)磚目蹤蝶；國敲家程行門為詳?shù)纳耥?xiàng)雙目逆。按蘋項(xiàng)慨目坦性魄質(zhì)館，枝對喉具街備日下舍列凱特廉征龜?shù)捻?xiàng)莫目蘆尤百其最應(yīng)捏該昆進(jìn)診行暢風(fēng)蜂險(xiǎn)西管歲理邊：1牽81紡3拴.涂1聞項(xiàng)溉目聰風(fēng)心險(xiǎn)暑管君理俱概震述1鄉(xiāng)豐3啟.毯1截.仙4涂項(xiàng)曲目讓風(fēng)偷險(xiǎn)姻管古理高過獎(jiǎng)程評估和審核回顧風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對策的制定過程；評價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對策的執(zhí)行情況和效果；總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理設(shè)計(jì)、評價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對策；選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對策；實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)分析引起風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因；評價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率；估計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別確定監(jiān)測指標(biāo)；分析跟蹤信息；找出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；明確目標(biāo)確定監(jiān)督對象；記錄跟蹤信息；過濾和初步處理信息1翠9美沾國沿系孟統(tǒng)脫工懸程耳研絨究親所災(zāi)（愈S際E賄I則）乎把魯風(fēng)魯險(xiǎn)艘管碑理叛的非過述程較主輛要呢分休成女若殘干報(bào)個(gè)善環(huán)探節(jié)2斑0美績國率國震防判部課根射據(jù)寫其端管鍋理計(jì)實(shí)軋踐欲，尖建蛇立昆了保相兼對饞科妻學(xué)溜的柔風(fēng)蘇險(xiǎn)勢管刪理幻玉基四本猶過果程胸和夸體謠系都結(jié)踏構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)辨識(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)文檔2喉11譜3獻(xiàn).午2拆項(xiàng)育目梁風(fēng)場險(xiǎn)瘡識(shí)費(fèi)別1豬3立.球2眨.男1俱風(fēng)譜險(xiǎn)鋒的墊分疾類按咳風(fēng)識(shí)險(xiǎn)哭后洗果找劃夜分誕：輸純瞎粹艇風(fēng)奧險(xiǎn)清：談直與接貼財(cái)鋼產(chǎn)威損層失況、巧連江帶建損繭失尚、曠法奇律貨責(zé)輩任揀、循個(gè)配人補(bǔ)損望失傻；稼投奔機(jī)泛風(fēng)栽險(xiǎn)按材風(fēng)足險(xiǎn)眠來遷源煌劃侮分牛：這自演然趟風(fēng)犯險(xiǎn)憐、雷人豆為井風(fēng)暗險(xiǎn)獸、駁政掩治娘風(fēng)靈險(xiǎn)碗、族組遇織亮風(fēng)益險(xiǎn)按逐風(fēng)味險(xiǎn)腥是橫否挎可張管物理極劃望分是：對可全預(yù)氣測獄可授管押理佩、除不嶄可市管圣理按吧風(fēng)鍛險(xiǎn)朱影聞響辣范模圍釀劃剝分術(shù)：瞞局她部破風(fēng)艘險(xiǎn)碰、耳總飲體牙風(fēng)漂險(xiǎn)按賺風(fēng)兄險(xiǎn)剛后憤果言的坊承揀擔(dān)劫者腫劃旬分劍：悠項(xiàng)杏目蠅業(yè)撥主保風(fēng)靜險(xiǎn)漫、撤承榆包捷商瓣風(fēng)拌險(xiǎn)彎、允投染資冠方阿風(fēng)兄險(xiǎn)釀、抖設(shè)乞計(jì)燙單演位屑風(fēng)類險(xiǎn)龜?shù)劝床斤L(fēng)他險(xiǎn)誕的投可薪預(yù)站測獸性塔劃漿分京：笨已把知婚風(fēng)朱險(xiǎn)漸、庭可些預(yù)弟測搶風(fēng)縱險(xiǎn)勉、值不仔可拐預(yù)蓋測頓風(fēng)纏險(xiǎn)按袍風(fēng)苦險(xiǎn)土的炸狀商態(tài)嗚劃侍分鞠：左靜盡態(tài)匪風(fēng)跑險(xiǎn)畏和木動(dòng)混態(tài)陡風(fēng)聚險(xiǎn)2辰21耕3皮.以2香項(xiàng)層目已風(fēng)營險(xiǎn)處識(shí)食別1刻3賓.剛2剃.掉2扣項(xiàng)辭目連風(fēng)蚊險(xiǎn)勤識(shí)錄別齡的撇基勢礎(chǔ)項(xiàng)諒目泛自照身祥特互點(diǎn)蛾：業(yè)猾主羊和烈投扣資啟者傷、貼承購包棚商阿、歷項(xiàng)兩目春管悉理湊者項(xiàng)償目努外匯在烤環(huán)錦境徑：政攀治葛因可素召、圾法貨律碰因里素錯(cuò)、翁經(jīng)將濟(jì)核因撫素優(yōu)、保社襯會(huì)息風(fēng)終險(xiǎn)剪、揪自鴿然透條搜件項(xiàng)所目千生望命符周承期卸各搭個(gè)檢階烈段備的晨各食種料可駝能慰風(fēng)貧險(xiǎn)2枯3風(fēng)喊險(xiǎn)謠識(shí)謝別斑需蹦要旗確照定奏三憲個(gè)搞相弓互籍關(guān)技聯(lián)經(jīng)的爬因勵(lì)素·嘉風(fēng)磨險(xiǎn)封來鑄源事（勁R稀i帥s割k坡S執(zhí)o擊u叢r白c到e禍s熱）駝：喜時(shí)屆間敢、蠶費(fèi)鞭用您、侮技她術(shù)議、塑法謹(jǐn)律斜等娃等渾；·擺風(fēng)悠險(xiǎn)甜事恢件趁（瞇R分i科s句k患E字v廚e撤n抗t浩）焦：蠻給炭項(xiàng)辣目休帶攝來符積廈極齡或撇消茶極細(xì)影扔響嘉的犯事紙件稱；·嗽風(fēng)痰險(xiǎn)麥征秧兆橋（催R檔i拿s正k茅S旗y個(gè)m蔑p挖t碑o耽m垃s依）嗽：闖又滾稱族為間觸撲發(fā)寫器賠（注T購r仇i鉛g朋g弊e古r西s噸）刊，斧是類指轉(zhuǎn)實(shí)震際父的萌風(fēng)技險(xiǎn)料事瓶件燥的炭間臣接冬表弄現(xiàn)奏形薄式厭。2媽4項(xiàng)馬目光風(fēng)昌險(xiǎn)影識(shí)敬別研過段程玩一訊般握可竭分殖為撲下艙面尚五嘴個(gè)裝步恢驟第膊一抬步湖，隔確衡定嗽目淹標(biāo)刊。第手二斯步域，螺明篇確塵最壺重疤要終的夏參即與狀者姑。第嶼三末步卡，膠收仍集番資坊料荒。(農(nóng)1懷)漏項(xiàng)延目反產(chǎn)梯品兔或吊服震務(wù)燦的諸說互明米書(濟(jì)2序)證項(xiàng)喂目價(jià)的培前燒提翅、長假嘉設(shè)貍和脹制胡約攻因梅素(侍3下)傲與鼻本他項(xiàng)凝目逐類恭似寸的巧案桂例第扔四該步揮，組估禁計(jì)遵項(xiàng)變目強(qiáng)風(fēng)栽險(xiǎn)哄形四勢朵。第聚五哀步闖，很根贏據(jù)脹直處接懲或便間劉接希的泥癥奇狀慢將米潛風(fēng)在虛的限項(xiàng)便目螺風(fēng)翅險(xiǎn)縮慧識(shí)泉?jiǎng)e宇出每來捐。2些51洽3溝.渾2熱.天3予項(xiàng)矮目晨風(fēng)否險(xiǎn)加識(shí)志別昨的允方拉法風(fēng)響險(xiǎn)銀識(shí)停別疤問學(xué)詢減法粱：援頭摟腦易風(fēng)滴暴剖、突專往家外預(yù)浪測承法財(cái)逢務(wù)極報(bào)奴表豬法嗽：閣分盯析旅資冬產(chǎn)企負(fù)頃債桂表植、域營港業(yè)周報(bào)燃表噴及澤財(cái)揮務(wù)垂記膜錄流尾程商圖雀法腎：妹根悅據(jù)甩項(xiàng)肢目庫的蹦總種流揉程榨圖紋和宅分棄流亦程季圖冷展森示趙項(xiàng)巖目哨實(shí)晌施辮的占全闖過擊程鵲，匯根妥據(jù)浪這峽些蒸過顛程塘分副析妖潛顧在反的釀風(fēng)格險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)曠場素視躲察辦法相腫關(guān)忍部或門牲配摩合暖法索釀賠椅統(tǒng)綿計(jì)氏記梁錄販法環(huán)跳境損分豈析騰法抹：辣項(xiàng)脊目參的錯(cuò)環(huán)躍境綠包沉括眨：輕業(yè)聞主撿、拴原墳材獄料妨供投應(yīng)歲商歪、局競滑爭摸者浸、盡政夠府思管利理磨者2只61攤3映.局2分項(xiàng)豎目陽風(fēng)踐險(xiǎn)速識(shí)勞別1務(wù)3喪.器2忍.踢4松項(xiàng)屯目峰風(fēng)鑄險(xiǎn)嚇識(shí)涂別遮的何結(jié)霞果風(fēng)勺險(xiǎn)尖來練源節(jié)表風(fēng)相險(xiǎn)全的賞分叢類戒或澇分臘組風(fēng)炮險(xiǎn)拋癥患狀對喂項(xiàng)矩目賊其蔽它萌方告面翅的枝要紅求2旦71君3桐.價(jià)3巡壽項(xiàng)頸目析風(fēng)滴險(xiǎn)辭評胖價(jià)1狠3景.杠3飽.凝1舅項(xiàng)北目秀風(fēng)銀險(xiǎn)蚊估違計(jì)項(xiàng)旁目滔風(fēng)奶險(xiǎn)參估生計(jì)療的幻玉含惑義悟：妥估禿算或風(fēng)駝險(xiǎn)轎事孝件犁發(fā)概生診的拔概正率符及宿其委后瞇果賤的靈大以小螺，興以唯降辣低佛項(xiàng)描目償?shù)奶┎粖^確存定煎性慎。項(xiàng)鏟目姨風(fēng)娘險(xiǎn)程估彩計(jì)醉的糾工香具些和色方級(jí)法愈：1、搖統(tǒng)弓計(jì)狀法發(fā)：分朋布苗頻昏率平尋均釘數(shù)效、苗中莊位踢數(shù)毛、柄眾簽數(shù)臣：中漸位鉗數(shù)診是理大絹小獸排求列融數(shù)斜的面中給間肯數(shù)歇；盾眾層數(shù)黎是姑一霧組醉數(shù)懷中喉出仰現(xiàn)風(fēng)最鞠多炸的物數(shù)嚴(yán)。平暈均乞方稼差正寬態(tài)者分怕布概票率2絹8如兼果浙決糞策煎目惕標(biāo)枝是開效伯益卷最塔大脂,則瞇采輔取垂期揀望憲值償最蜓大輝的錢行柏動(dòng)纏方豬案如史果蠟決敏策掛目貸標(biāo)盤是棟損羅失柔最忙小箱,則眾選旗取趣期餅望壓值武最禁小帳的勒方降案(洲1膊)科期填望尋值掌法E活(慕X雷)衡=風(fēng)夫險(xiǎn)壞型療決鏟策例寸:己某艦項(xiàng)照工渡程慮需億要帆確克定蜜未究來繡一瘡個(gè)畏月骨是典否沖開石工親,耐若酸開扒工婚,適天驚氣赴好鼓,葵工啟程幸可鞠按且期送完暫工年,罵獲轉(zhuǎn)利睡1州0秧萬龜元珠;堅(jiān)若抄天禾氣退不廢好碎,汁則努要柱損枯失減2湖萬重元精.禿如頁果耳不劑開剪工蒼,鼓則粱不踩論抄天丟氣脖好垃壞小,丸均阿要舅付辟出盡窩昌工然費(fèi)誤0法.級(jí)2介萬螺元理.螺根碑據(jù)潔歷歐史菌資君料攻,花下抄月滲天廈氣督好介的患概槍率每0睬.底3談,語天外氣社不乒好撈概猾率離0畢.出7略,象決愿策尚是謀否誘開碑工牛.

天氣好天氣不好期望值0．30．7

方案1：開工10萬元-2萬元

方案2：不開工-0.2萬元-0.2萬元

方走案丸1麗:勒E鵲1腳=嘴1尺0光*倚0昨.積3追+溫(蘿-頸2飼)中*桑0販.撇7催=華1楚.黨6逮(甜萬壘元址)方斯案些2盤:朝E奴2角=怠(湊-革0賴.密2招)上*蟲0始.矛3逮+年(蝴-抗0蜂.幻玉2價(jià))刑*鉗0軍.寬7議=赤-候0旋.索2醉(宴萬游元端)益輔損聞期摘望洗值圓高悉,翅可鈴采掃用2低9決靜策籮樹喚法要晉素鋸:①?zèng)Q匹策利點(diǎn)—表貼示觸決個(gè)策皆結(jié)非果②方重案字枝—代缺表臂一腎個(gè)株方甲案③自拔然譯狀城態(tài)疼結(jié)洋點(diǎn)—各袖自伐然薯狀撐態(tài)霞獲瓜得腎效甜益津的槳機(jī)觀會(huì)④概集率剛枝—代甜表義自坦然捕狀守態(tài)決究策旁點(diǎn)方考案鴿枝自裳然貌狀往態(tài)師結(jié)癢點(diǎn)概動(dòng)率裕枝益衛(wèi)損性值3早0例回:郵某闊項(xiàng)疼工乎程閃需秧要孝確準(zhǔn)定湯未蘇來說一燥個(gè)艷月倚是奧否亮開籍工酒,份若亮開屋工也,鍵天者氣協(xié)好污,肢工牲程醉可惑按韻期娃完溪工迅,博獲桐利妹1升0框萬騙元蛋;百若暮天猛氣房誠不做好煉,送則形要科損穴失殿2數(shù)萬鈴元曉.杠如撕果拐不箭開慕工勞,腳則排不育論林天蹲氣代好供壞疏,否均仔要稻付可出駁窩隨工話費(fèi)市0丟.慎2治萬燙元墓.弟根歪據(jù)堆歷贏史浪資補(bǔ)料顧,宣下脊月議天占?xì)馀酆孟⒌那懈畔锫售E0盲.屆3胸,優(yōu)天絹氣潮不炕好嚇概游率速0緞.羊7西,敞決寶策眉是作否稈開拾工扭.123不純開悲工E營2項(xiàng)=端-峽0阻.懇2或萬袍元天冷氣恐壞顯(窄0妹.施7塊)開判工1支0印萬酬元-持2吃萬鞏元-匆0疊.斗2朗萬狂元-艷0陵.語2拋萬網(wǎng)元天妻氣縮慧好眉(躍0安.私3紐奉)天拒氣稼壞羽(猾0破.商7寶)天闖氣言好洲(姑0言.晌3里)E幕1傾=粥1收.臉6未萬哨元計(jì)拋算牧步洗驟3彎11潛3蜂.讀3歸項(xiàng)網(wǎng)目魯風(fēng)器險(xiǎn)荒評捆價(jià)1惕3捎.踢3萄.歐1倚項(xiàng)慚目放風(fēng)涂險(xiǎn)藥估丈計(jì)4哲、撓外嗓推卻方置法趨民勢緣瑞外疼推嘉法使，終時(shí)軌間攔序煩列幸法件，況根蕉據(jù)灣歷創(chuàng)史練信更息禁數(shù)鉤據(jù)橫推紛斷必未領(lǐng)來津事酷件早發(fā)葛生譜的臺(tái)概馳率性和捐后駁果緣瑞。5嗚、季專揀家賓評滅定臭法犬—曬—課德色爾外菲蠶法3乎21米3屬.噸3治項(xiàng)督目洗風(fēng)承險(xiǎn)練評寬價(jià)1秧3駐.半3藍(lán).梨2繞項(xiàng)籃目煤風(fēng)殿險(xiǎn)者評朵價(jià)1慢、董風(fēng)束險(xiǎn)毯評嚼價(jià)綁的驢目鳴的對時(shí)項(xiàng)乓目樓諸姐風(fēng)貴險(xiǎn)挺進(jìn)嗎行隱比賢較桿和霜分筍析奇，優(yōu)確質(zhì)定誕它蝴們丟的宰先究后域順猴序若；從寶項(xiàng)然目惠整振體鹿出雁發(fā)腿弄晉清奇各乘風(fēng)霉險(xiǎn)虜事址件卷之嘴間薯確太切皺的刷因鬧果宅關(guān)筐系賽；考蚊慮辭各效種姜不顫同蒙風(fēng)蛋險(xiǎn)橡之板間偽相川互斑轉(zhuǎn)號(hào)化辦的放條紙件容，登研劈燕究券如凍何嚇轉(zhuǎn)全化雜為桂機(jī)震會(huì)唉；量陸化別已盤識(shí)柏別隱風(fēng)押險(xiǎn)啄的快發(fā)番生雙概斧率價(jià)和抹后銳果除，歡減稠少聽風(fēng)畫險(xiǎn)旱發(fā)葡生停概卻率烈和組后惑果判估薪計(jì)院中塑的婆不茅確削定心性少。3圈32學(xué)、漆風(fēng)鮮險(xiǎn)茫評述價(jià)臺(tái)的壩步蹄驟確線定隙風(fēng)現(xiàn)險(xiǎn)淺評卷價(jià)鮮基蕩準(zhǔn)確教定鉛項(xiàng)續(xù)目臘整餐體線風(fēng)砍險(xiǎn)毀水賄平將舟單勿個(gè)撓風(fēng)超險(xiǎn)域與同單蠻個(gè)胳評量價(jià)效基必準(zhǔn)螞、浮項(xiàng)新目深整吊體假風(fēng)塊險(xiǎn)譜水都平澆與逮整毅體瘋評替價(jià)宇基其準(zhǔn)變對瀉比衡，壩看梅項(xiàng)盾目某風(fēng)靈險(xiǎn)惰是殺否溉在居可維接挎受龜范攪圍睛之含內(nèi)環(huán)，魯以勸確置定厭項(xiàng)疊目招是湯否數(shù)繼繭續(xù)泳進(jìn)號(hào)行愿。3麻41煩3底.矛4淋項(xiàng)黑目宮風(fēng)樸險(xiǎn)今處購理1誕3醒.浙4插.貍1鏡回炒避杰風(fēng)飯險(xiǎn)1焦、族下?lián)趿蟹珟孜龇N六情偷況蛇，右需銀要毫考扯慮焰是以否玻采陸用強(qiáng)回泊避濤風(fēng)盛險(xiǎn)牢的侵策族略勇：客稠觀距不擇需說要況的革項(xiàng)酬目師，蜓沒臟有箭必貴要游冒省險(xiǎn)一因旦肺造悔成趁損抽失想，授項(xiàng)賊目甜執(zhí)寫行脹組嶺織揀無極力紙承貍擔(dān)帶后您果翻的框項(xiàng)毀目李；僅籍僅愉為摘了氧個(gè)筍人湯的電功鑄名沈利票祿待客碎觀榆上念不勒需隸要浪的禮項(xiàng)肯目婚。2白、妥此押種鴉回吉避辮風(fēng)塘險(xiǎn)棕的判缺村點(diǎn)套或迷限駕制但是稅：對恭某揚(yáng)一土具稱體筑風(fēng)擔(dān)險(xiǎn)脅單榮位艘來賣說愿，糟有夫些鵲風(fēng)列險(xiǎn)警是素不浸可鞏避互免旱的困；任煎何虧經(jīng)莖濟(jì)告活而動(dòng)槐都駝要顧風(fēng)避險(xiǎn)辜，行這章是鑒風(fēng)智險(xiǎn)寇的劣普搖遍用性流和藍(lán)客里觀避性筐；避摘免宇一想種友風(fēng)伶險(xiǎn)漲很嗓可嗓能素會(huì)睬產(chǎn)每生掀另碎一首種賤新逮的普風(fēng)幸險(xiǎn)鐵；如進(jìn)果破主加體尾不歐了胸解陰風(fēng)謝險(xiǎn)攀，井就乞不崇能狠有米效炕的中避況開漿風(fēng)桃險(xiǎn)垃。3侄51興3跪.皆4煉項(xiàng)治目湯風(fēng)評險(xiǎn)捐處艦理1衣3媽.何4脖.許2滿預(yù)拋防戚風(fēng)塘險(xiǎn)1希、裕工優(yōu)程酸法防貨止璃風(fēng)并險(xiǎn)助因燃素障出圈現(xiàn)罪；減艱少術(shù)已嚴(yán)存醫(yī)在搞的烈風(fēng)淡險(xiǎn)狼因創(chuàng)素專；將伙風(fēng)敏險(xiǎn)掩因砌素究在娃時(shí)憤間賤和羞空鞠間朽上債隔映離外。2外、宿無館形鳥法教鋼育曉法程株序儀法3沾61蓋3爐.沿4彼項(xiàng)律目要風(fēng)沫險(xiǎn)皇處舒理1翠3愿.所4堂.材3塊降狠低乎風(fēng)充險(xiǎn)對途于庭項(xiàng)拒目默班嶺子詠很委少咸或莫根拾本符不裁能藝控款制果的煮風(fēng)連險(xiǎn)雕有洗必顏要患采啄用把迂?fù)?dān)回岔策腎略練；將欠項(xiàng)魯目燦每炊一斥個(gè)罪具敬體喉“洞風(fēng)湯險(xiǎn)攤”丈都蛋降騙低課到件可跪接患受咱的呈水銳平舍；重塵視份時(shí)冤間燥因速素蠟，著將摘未信來臉的活風(fēng)法險(xiǎn)皮“錄移期到父”歉現(xiàn)弟在傻。3覽71牛3碌.杠4疊.寇4揪轉(zhuǎn)析移壞風(fēng)子險(xiǎn)出托售發(fā)螺包開叢脫寺責(zé)香任標(biāo)合刑同保怠險(xiǎn)泄與帖擔(dān)娘保3眨81爆3棄.賞4獎(jiǎng).睬5蠢應(yīng)商急余計(jì)桃劃掀的變編嘆制應(yīng)坑急理計(jì)貌劃探的蓮分路類純躍事甜后腎的帶尚有沃必墊要份事津前挎行掉動(dòng)境的渴事慕后仆計(jì)能劃緩晝和溉結(jié)莊果剖的賢事沈前湯行不動(dòng)1街3止.拍4奪.半6風(fēng)禾險(xiǎn)鈔自會(huì)留風(fēng)驚險(xiǎn)擊自淚留屢是濁一私種感風(fēng)腰險(xiǎn)票的耳財(cái)猜務(wù)遠(yuǎn)對柜策支，悠由莊企現(xiàn)業(yè)靠或它工痛程將項(xiàng)逢目銅自獨(dú)身長承碼擔(dān)龍風(fēng)妙險(xiǎn)忙。風(fēng)震險(xiǎn)私自盲留伍的幕有拘利郊和鈴不酸利似情斯況3愈91藝3止.懲5與項(xiàng)銅目題風(fēng)換險(xiǎn)暮監(jiān)拆控1稠3嘴.滔5億.欄1永風(fēng)跌險(xiǎn)耀監(jiān)菜控合的途依水據(jù)風(fēng)牽險(xiǎn)黃管察理詳計(jì)繳劃索和按風(fēng)選險(xiǎn)葬應(yīng)貍對侍計(jì)略劃項(xiàng)旺目杜進(jìn)瞇度返報(bào)福告項(xiàng)盈目壇評釘審4焦01宇3者.是5爸.淚2記風(fēng)址險(xiǎn)報(bào)控奸制根鐮據(jù)罵風(fēng)奴險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)因旗素量的認(rèn)特元性敲，炊采翼取切一宴定淡措衡施敵使稀其垃發(fā)妨生牲的握概償率攔降爆至痕接強(qiáng)近駐于智0或的罰程演度客，咸從堂而坊預(yù)淋防失風(fēng)妥險(xiǎn)英因躁素錢的棗產(chǎn)合生瞞；減袋少秋已騰存芽在跡的旱風(fēng)雖險(xiǎn)圈因思素貢；防望止慘已娛存差在惹的渣風(fēng)照險(xiǎn)騎因鏟素搏釋妹放值能昏量懶；改丹善詢風(fēng)毀險(xiǎn)璃因爽素短的概空條間洞分盡布口從壇而潤控夾制凡釋昆放屢能乏量南的杜速蓋度驢；把李時(shí)稍間族和移空植間踐上狗把宿風(fēng)競險(xiǎn)食因深素箭與騎可丟能承遭謊受除損也害影的勵(lì)人膨財(cái)捐物且隔留離番；改沫變助風(fēng)置險(xiǎn)拋因幣素從的撤基窗本賭性其質(zhì)下；奴加銳強(qiáng)歪風(fēng)賴險(xiǎn)傅部兵門綁的愿防盛護(hù)塞能襯力偉；