土地成交市場(chǎng)2023半年度報(bào)告：上半年土地成交及城投拿地詳細(xì)盤(pán)點(diǎn)

證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)未經(jīng)許可，禁止轉(zhuǎn)載2023年上半年土地市場(chǎng)“冷熱不均”持續(xù)演繹，各區(qū)域表現(xiàn)如何？我們從全國(guó)和2023年上半年土地市場(chǎng)“冷熱不均”持續(xù)演繹，各區(qū)域表現(xiàn)如何？我們從全國(guó)和各省市土地成交情況以及城投拿地情況對(duì)上半年土地市場(chǎng)展開(kāi)分析。全國(guó)土地成交表現(xiàn)如何？1、成交額及溢價(jià)率：2023年上半年全國(guó)土地累計(jì)成交額1.53萬(wàn)億元，同比下降14.14%，加權(quán)溢價(jià)率6.59%，同比提升0.86個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。單月成交額逐月提。2、城投拿地情況：2023年上半年城投累計(jì)拿地占比23.20%，同比下降3.714%。各省份及各地市土地成交現(xiàn)狀分析：1、分省份看：18省土地成交額同比下降，低基數(shù)效應(yīng)下天津增速達(dá)283.63%浙江、江蘇、廣東累計(jì)成交額超1500億元，甘肅、青海等區(qū)域不足100億元。2、分地市看：熱點(diǎn)城市率先回暖，杭州、廣州、蘇州、西安、成都、南京、寧波、深圳8個(gè)地市土地累計(jì)成交額超300億元，147個(gè)地市累計(jì)成交金額不足10億元，主要集中于新疆、海南、甘肅、云南、遼寧、廣西等地。3、重點(diǎn)省市：昆明、天津土拍有所改善，蘭州、濟(jì)南、青島回落明顯。昆明市成交額53.53億元，同比增長(zhǎng)108%；青島、濟(jì)南成交額分別為125.24億元、，研究【債券分析】【債券分析】上半年土地成交及城投拿地詳細(xì)盤(pán)點(diǎn)究所證券分析師：周冠南業(yè)編號(hào)：S0360517090002券分析師：張晶晶業(yè)編號(hào)：S0360521070001相關(guān)研究報(bào)告7月流動(dòng)性月報(bào)》3-07-08置機(jī)會(huì)——7月信用債策略月報(bào)》3-07-06央行二季度問(wèn)卷調(diào)查解讀》城投拿地現(xiàn)狀：3-07-04城投拿地現(xiàn)狀：1、分省份看：江蘇、浙江、山東、廣東、四川共5個(gè)省份城投拿地金額大于2001、分省份看：江蘇、浙江、山東、廣東、四川共5個(gè)省份城投拿地金額大于200億元，甘肅、天津等6個(gè)區(qū)域小于20億元。不同區(qū)域城投拿地占比分化浙江、福建、山西、北京等9個(gè)區(qū)域位于10%-20%，上海、天津低于10%。2、分地市看：城投拿地金額前30的地市中煙臺(tái)、常州、景德鎮(zhèn)、威海、宜昌、鄭州等12個(gè)地市占比超50%，鹽城、徐州、德州、石家莊、濰坊共5個(gè)地市占比介于30%-50%，西安、廣州、武漢、成都、合肥、長(zhǎng)沙、蘇州等13個(gè)地市占比低于30%，其中杭州為8.63%在30個(gè)地市中最低。3、重點(diǎn)省市：云南城投拿地金額及占比下降，昆明有所提升；天津城投拿地金額及占比也有下降；濟(jì)南城投拿地金額同比提升16.49%，占比提升21.15個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；廣西城投拿地金額下降但占比提升，柳州市城投拿地金額、占比均上升；甘肅及蘭州市城投拿地金額下降，但占比提升。23-07-03后續(xù)展望：一方面，7月政治局會(huì)議召開(kāi)，在消費(fèi)、投資、房地產(chǎn)等多方面政策力度略超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，且為2019年以來(lái)年中政治局會(huì)議首次不提“房住不炒”，總量調(diào)控空間或被打開(kāi)；“因城施策用好政策工具箱”指向定力較強(qiáng)的核心一二線(xiàn)城市調(diào)控放松有望加碼；“城中村”改造、保障性住房建設(shè)或更加積極。另一方面，土地市場(chǎng)“冷熱不均”，分化狀態(tài)或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)演繹，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避下核心熱點(diǎn)城市將優(yōu)先受到市場(chǎng)追捧，而部分弱能級(jí)區(qū)域的恢復(fù)情況仍將有待驗(yàn)證，關(guān)注后續(xù)城投拿地占比以及再融資情況尤為重要。政治局會(huì)議強(qiáng)調(diào)“要有效防范化解地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，制定實(shí)施一攬子化債方案”，下半年再融資債券置換隱性債務(wù)等政策或有實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。短期看尾部區(qū)域債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或?qū)⒌玫揭欢ň忈專(zhuān)峭豆_(kāi)債券打破剛兌仍屬較小概率事件，主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍是基本面下行下的技術(shù)性違約與估值波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。城投債配置仍建議不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的投資者結(jié)合收益率、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力、債務(wù)水平、到期壓力、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)輿情等因素進(jìn)行綜合選擇，可以重點(diǎn)關(guān)注短端品種的下沉機(jī)會(huì)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：土地明細(xì)統(tǒng)計(jì)及城投口徑統(tǒng)計(jì)有偏差、土地市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期。分析證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)2 二、各省份及各地市土地成交現(xiàn)狀分析 5 土地成交呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng) 6(三)重點(diǎn)省市情況：昆明、天津土拍有所改善，蘭州、濟(jì)南、青島回落明顯 6三、城投拿地現(xiàn)狀及后續(xù)展望 7 (二)城投拿地金額位居前30的地市分布情況 8(三)重點(diǎn)省市情況：天津城投拿地占比下降，昆明、濟(jì)南、柳州、蘭州上升 9(四)拿地規(guī)模位居前30的城投主體情況 10四、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 11證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)3 9 證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)4們將全國(guó)和各省市土地成交的情況以及城投拿地情況對(duì)上半年土地市場(chǎng)展開(kāi)深入探討。土地成交數(shù)據(jù)方面，統(tǒng)計(jì)全市場(chǎng)招拍掛的土地成交明細(xì)，以便對(duì)城投拿地等情況進(jìn)有所土地市場(chǎng)持續(xù)低迷下，部分城市集中供地實(shí)際完成率較低，土拍政策又有所調(diào)整，部分地塊清單公布制度，進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化完善集中供地政策，更好發(fā)揮充分公開(kāi)披露信息對(duì)于穩(wěn)。6月城投拿地占比環(huán)比下降，加權(quán)平均溢價(jià)率環(huán)比上升注：加權(quán)平均溢價(jià)率采用成交額加權(quán)計(jì)算。證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)5一，而云南、陜西增速為25.34%、19.76%，也相對(duì)較高，主要受昆明、西安土地市場(chǎng)暖，杭州、廣州、蘇州、西安、成都、南京、寧波、深圳8個(gè)地市土地成于新疆、海南、甘肅、云南、遼寧、廣西等地。受昆明、西安土地市場(chǎng)回溫帶動(dòng)。福建、上海、甘肅、安徽、江西、廣西等9個(gè)區(qū)域半年各省土地成交情況省份土地成交額(億元)及成交增速加權(quán)平均溢價(jià)率及變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比增速2023年1-6月同比增速2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化浙江5997.38-39.30%2554.455.44%7.32%江蘇8358.80-29.69%1862.7712.55%3.73%2.31廣東3632.06-48.62%1519.6116.85%3.09%-8.476.75%3.04北京1781.69-26.44%1078.880.75%5.49%7.33%2.51東4075.36-32.76%950.86-27.94%10.80%3.32%0.61河北1597.50-25.94%739.385.37%5.20%4.54%0.55四川3262.72727.766.48%-3.213.45陜西1414.99624.1619.76%0.90%0.58上海2260.11-31.77%591.60-47.84%2.99%6.53%3.67安徽2023.31-29.53%578.29-37.00%10.24%7.79%河南1689.03-41.87%492.60-20.92%5.81%-5.067.67%2.81福建1703.81-34.81%473.15-51.55%15.71%-3.7810.67%6.37湖北1471.36457.51-2.80%5.46%-8.2012.00%8.27江西1595.46-23.23%438.2111.89%湖南1928.50-36.53%436.2711.74%2.9411.05%5.60天津394.57-64.64%291.71283.63%0.47%-7.862.95%2.63重慶795.79-57.69%195.65-4.44%.97%0.49%-2.64廣西621.70-38.78%164.43-32.57%3.91%10.23%4.46云南361.52-25.37%153.1725.34%4.26%-4.28.30%西438.21-47.33%135.6912.21%3.51%貴州1053.23-48.34%131.94-47.71%13.42%7.152.73%0.91內(nèi)蒙古242.10-23.09%128.2028.79%7.00%6.68%新疆318.19-44.62%114.53-21.22%3.01%-2.534.45%0.48遼寧393.45-62.87%111.42-29.59%.86%0.47%-4.04海南293.9116.37%104.8115.75%3.81%13.57%2.98吉林180.65-77.69%94.4616.36%0.47%2.00%甘肅166.65-63.32%52.99-43.36%5.79%3.42%-4.69黑龍江62.95-74.35%43.1184.25%.83%3.62%-0.88寧夏74.73-31.25%35.2342.51%4.03%-27.533.53%-4.88青海67.89-54.88%3.79-91.51%0.26%-7.923.29%2.89全國(guó)合計(jì)48257.61-37%15286.627%-7.067%0.86證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)6(二)各地市情況：超半數(shù)地市土地成交呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)云南、遼寧、廣西等地。省份地市土地成交額(億元)及成交增速加權(quán)平均溢價(jià)率及變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比增速2023年1-6月同比增速2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化浙江杭州1829.50-43.89%1043.36-20.87%5.84%8.80%2.88廣東廣州1225.80-51.59%613.0146.69%1.62%-4.447.00%5.89江蘇蘇州931.25-53.34%520.542.98%-2.706.49%3.09陜西西安1059.05-4.42%478.2221.32%0.64%2.32%0.81四川成都1614.94-9.99%436.76-9.86%2.99%4.80江蘇南京1368.13-35.38%379.473.86%-8.447.83%3.42浙江寧波814.67-30.07%322.11-46.57%6.26%5.74%廣東深圳765.82-31.47%304.3325.82%8.64%-2.558.67%-3.31廣東佛山388.983%271.2562.39%0.97%-20.097.64%5.73浙江溫州515.49-48.69%245.536.59%2.82%-0.97浙江臺(tái)州424.72-21.09%230.2818.46%河北石家莊246.931%218.7381.38%2.37%-2.062.44%.47安徽合肥631.96-28.68%209.65-47.31%6.27%10.80%2.82江蘇無(wú)錫920.93-23.76%205.8951.87%1.48%-7.720.58湖北武漢464.66-75.38%197.761.59%4.03%2.54湖南長(zhǎng)沙797.70-30.80%192.345%19.79%13.562.28福建廈門(mén)489.79-40.04%177.64-52.71%44.02%24.5911.33%8.24浙江湖州454.186%166.527.66%3.03%0.22江蘇常州1094.61-9.52%155.00-22.80%2.92%-6.943.65%2.88浙江紹興441.61-41.97%152.251.94%9.81%5.11江蘇鹽城462.74-43.52%147.9728.83%17.23%11.76%浙江嘉興443.51-37.92%144.71-39.73%5.25%5.28%-0.72江蘇南通837.84-40.97%132.48-27.81%0.93%-9.78浙江金華678.24-47.68%129.56-41.21%2.81%-31.607.74%4.53山東青島591.28-25.87%125.24-36.27%1.60%0.083.88%2.41河北保定251.29-52.05%120.3452.43%8.95%8.76河南鄭州367.85-63.97%112.23-34.58%1.29%-5.090.85%山東德州143.06-50.42%100.55128.29%0.02%2.48%2.47江蘇徐州677.281%98.223%0.24%-29.230.96%山東濟(jì)寧294.44-28.02%98.0618.24%3.76%4.21%-3.47對(duì)市場(chǎng)較為關(guān)注的區(qū)域(省、自治區(qū)、直轄市)及其下轄部分地級(jí)市做進(jìn)一步分析。(城投公司)、昆明云睿投資有限公司(東方航空子公司)、云南華澤置業(yè)有限公司(云南建投子公司)、安寧創(chuàng)佳房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)有限公司(民營(yíng)房企)、昆明杰盛房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)有限責(zé)任公司(昆明盤(pán)龍區(qū)建投子公司)。證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)7中車(chē)子公司)、重慶中交置業(yè)有限公司(中國(guó)交建子公司)、中海企業(yè)發(fā)展集團(tuán)有限公司(中國(guó)海外興業(yè)子公司)、天津市津筑房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)有限公司(津城建子公司)。、天津土拍改善，其他區(qū)域多同比下滑省份地市土地成交額(億元)及成交增速加權(quán)平均溢價(jià)率及變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比增速2023年1-6月同比增速2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化云南-361.52-25.37%25.34%4.26%-4.28云南97.75-43.02%53.5381%0.01%0.11天津-394.57-64.64%291.71283.63%0.47%-7.862.95%2.63-4075.36-32.76%950.86-27.94%3.32%0.61青島591.28-25.87%-36.27%0.083.88%2.41濟(jì)南397.13-57.55%59.54-55.24%2.85%-2.600.43%濟(jì)寧294.44-28.02%98.063.76%4.21%-3.47濰坊519.5192.30-21.04%65.65%56.180.00%-3.56貴州-23-48.34%-47.71%7.152.73%0.91貴州貴陽(yáng)292.94-59.78%24.14-34.73%42.320.34%貴州遵義220.19-51.48%39.20-52.21%0.31%0.62%廣西-621.70-38.78%-32.57%3.91%4.46廣西柳州9.230.03%-7.929.36%9.34甘肅--63.32%52.99-43.36%5.79%3.42%-4.69甘肅54.74-62.53%7.18-82.41%6.89%4.810.44%-8.64、天等地城投拿地占比有上升。城投拿地金額方面，2023年上半年江蘇、浙江、山東、廣東、四川共5個(gè)省份城投證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)8蘇、云南、甘肅、重慶、河北等9個(gè)區(qū)域位于省份城投拿地金額(億元)與增速城投拿地占比與變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比增速2023年1-6月同比增速2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化安徽760.0728.50%5937.57%32.96%7.40北京014864.94%-5.220%5.18福建363.8475.42-60.88%21.35%4%-3.80甘肅33.77-64.37%20.26%-0.6024.82%.85廣東948.19-3.53%258.80-43.63%3%廣西302.4163.39-21.37%48.64%38.55%5.49貴州565.77-42.83%75.73-22.88%53.72%5.1757.39%海南41.8150.31%3%3.21-5.34河北336.32761%21.05%6.7721.47%2.12河南770.442545.61%23.9134.97%3.70黑龍江6.8566.59%1%89%湖北681.299.73%5746.30%26.1135.53%-4.03湖南1.1447-25.07%53.99%40.45%-3.72吉林40.93-45.37%31.9737.81%22.66%33.84%5.27江蘇3744.638.46%479.87-25.35%44.80%25.76%江西884.8766-41.84%55.46%37.58%-4.97遼寧77.5628.00%28.9888.92%1%26.01%內(nèi)蒙古42.015.79%26.385.90%5%20.58%-4.45寧夏5.29-56.09%4.937.07%-4.000%青海7.92-53.82%0.39-94.71%7%0.278%-6.271.963.29%300.62-25.84%42.74%31.62%0.9097.7420.0722.30%9.239%西398.4235.78%2741.74%26.48%4.11上海335.4438.2884%2.736.47%-9.67四川2.2226.50%224.9846.04%30.91%天津77.722.01%-28.09%0%4.51%新疆92.64-33.93%23.034.71-3.60云南699.73%38.40-7.53%32.55%25.07%-8.91浙江9.8770.37%425.95-39.98%31.34%20.187%-5.22重慶287.57-32.56%46.2031.46%23.61%6.45全國(guó)合計(jì)7353.835.91%3546.44-25.97%35.96%23.20%-3.71(二)城投拿地金額位居前30的地市分布情況宜介于30%-50%，西安、廣州、武漢、成都、合肥、長(zhǎng)沙、蘇州等13個(gè)證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)9省份地市城投拿地金額(億元)與增速城投拿地占比與變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化廣東廣州408.9823.62%150.83-42.42%33.36%20.3024.60%-38.08陜西西安282.2290.31%123.6279.09%26.65%13.2725.85%8.34江蘇常州506.77-0.88%109.401.66%46.30%4.0370.58%16.98浙江杭州294.49-5.21%90.08-36.39%6.578.63%河北石家莊75.0932.06%89.8516%30.41%15.0141.08%16.58四川成都446.915.78%81.189%27.67%4.1318.59%浙江金華298.07108.28%77.788%43.95%32.9160.04%17.16江蘇蘇州332.010.40%72.10-42.52%35.65%19.0813.85%江蘇鹽城322.8525.27%70.860%69.77%38.3147.89%-22.78江蘇南通335.366%69.5812.63%40.03%52.52%18.86河南鄭州146.88133.42%66.5124.69%39.93%33.7759.27%28.17湖南岳陽(yáng)112.400%64.65136.23%69.06%18.0983.56%32.56廣東深圳135.87-53.78%64.5517.74%-8.5721.21%-4.91浙江溫州144.66347.00%59.34-32.46%28.06%24.84浙江寧波199.44143.63%55.23-33.03%24.48%17.453.47四川眉山192.5458.77%44.6139.63%75.73%30.4362.93%7.38湖北武漢136.564%43.081169.89%29.39%18.7321.78%18.68山東德州70.653.30%41.88120.79%49.38%25.6841.65%江蘇徐州417.8921.74%41.54-38.55%61.70%17.0042.30%浙江湖州189.0565.01%39.76-42.24%41.62%19.7923.88%安徽合肥155.98278.91%37.68-40.26%24.68%20.0417.97%2.12浙江嘉興165.4651.35%36.55-39.82%37.31%22.0125.26%-0.04江西萍鄉(xiāng)101.1934.85%36.364%93.73%18.4986.88%湖北宜昌84.9935.4341.63%48.94%-0.8662.97%8.39江西景德鎮(zhèn)103.563%35.16381.75%3.5536.47山東煙臺(tái)100.7534.399.3671.40%53.66山東濰坊341.8622.85%33.4665.80%19.6136.25%7.31山東威海156.19-36.22%33.19-43.44%72.77%5.1065.63%-4.05湖南長(zhǎng)沙300.4916.02%32.65-38.80%37.67%15.2016.97%-5.78福建漳州59.09359.74%31.4729.92%28.7852.87%28.76(三)重點(diǎn)省市情況：天津城投拿地占比下降，昆明、濟(jì)南、柳州、蘭州上升所提升；天津城投拿地金額及占比也有所下降；山東城投拿地金額超300億元，提省份地市城投拿地金額(億元)與增速城投拿地占比與變化(百分點(diǎn))2022年同比增速2023年1-6月同比增速2022年同比變化2023年1-6月同比變化云南-117.699.73%38.40-7.53%32.55%10.4125.07%-8.91云南昆明13.60-39.95%14.60190.84%13.91%0.7127.27%7.79天津-77.72192.01%13.15-28.09%19.70%17.314.51%54山東-1741.963.29%300.62-25.84%42.74%14.9231.62%0.90山東青島155.9768.55%9.77-70.22%26.38%14.787.80%-8.89山東濟(jì)南140.62-38.10%20.4516.49%35.41%11.1334.35%21.15山東濟(jì)寧98.4346.75%15.82-20.55%33.43%17.03-7.87山東濰坊341.8622.85%33.461.09%65.80%19.6136.25%7.31貴州-565.77-42.83%75.73-22.88%53.72%5.1757.39%18.48貴州貴陽(yáng)189.86-14.37%16.8475.97%64.81%34.3769.77%43.89貴州遵義105.11-65.73%24.57-10.56%47.73%8662.69%29.19廣西-302.411.76%63.39-21.37%48.64%18.3338.55%5.49廣西柳州111.98192.62%5.2117.81%79.25%56.7056.43%13.41甘肅-33.77-64.37%13.15-11.95%20.26%-0.6024.82%8.85甘肅蘭州6.32-79.30%2.34-8.65%11.54%-9.3532.57%26.30證監(jiān)會(huì)審核華創(chuàng)證券投資咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)資格批文號(hào)：證監(jiān)許可(2009)1210號(hào)10(四)拿地規(guī)模位居前30的城投主體情況2023年上半年拿地規(guī)模位居前30的城投主體主要分布在浙江、江蘇等地。從城投設(shè)有限責(zé)任公司、南通一諾城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)開(kāi)發(fā)有限公司、江蘇金壇投資控股有限公司、寧波德鎮(zhèn)市興陶建設(shè)開(kāi)