駿馬短線快參

請務(wù)必閱讀正文后的免責(zé)聲明部分請務(wù)必閱讀正文后的免責(zé)聲明部分駿馬短線快參中國銀河證券投資顧問部研究所2010年4月關(guān)注基本面，結(jié)合技術(shù)面，把握中短線，切記控風(fēng)險投資思路：中國物流與采購聯(lián)合會公布3月份制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）為55．1％，較上月上升3．1個百分點，顯示中國經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)中有升，強勁的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)提振了投資者信心。銀行股再融資方案基本確定，對A股市場的資金需求小于預(yù)期，有利于銀行股的估值修復(fù)。隨著上市公司2009年年報披露進入高潮，業(yè)績具有說服力的大盤藍籌股對市場資金吸引力增強。棲霞建設(shè)（600533）：可售資源豐富業(yè)績將有高增長公司09年合同銷售金額達到了創(chuàng)紀錄的44億元，其中有20億元將在今年結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)收入，為收入的增長打下了基礎(chǔ)。2010年公司計劃除保障房項目外全年施工面積137.16萬平方米，新開工面積83.54萬平方米，竣工面積32.07萬平方米，新開工規(guī)模的增長將帶來可售資源增加。公司在2008年參股的廣東棕櫚園林股份有限公司將在近期上市，我們認為這將對公司股價有正面作用。參照可比公司東方園林目前的估值水平，廣東棕櫚園林上市后可為公司帶來約3億元的投資收益。由于公司擁有可觀的可售資源以及開發(fā)項目的銷售均價較09年已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了較大上漲，我們預(yù)計公司今明兩年業(yè)績將有大幅增長，10、11年每股收益分別為0.34和0.52元，建議投資者關(guān)注。（銀河駿馬工作組）所屬行業(yè)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)與經(jīng)營業(yè)煤炭采選業(yè)目前可流通市值(億元)67.727.49總市值(億元)67.727.50每股收益(元)（3Q09）0.210.29每股凈資產(chǎn)(元)2.584.09每股公積金(元)0.970.26每股未分配利潤(元)0.472.25凈利潤同比增長(%)18.8-68.62凈資產(chǎn)收益率(%)8.237.02市盈率（TTM）30.3519.84市凈率2.56.08最新收盤價6.4524平煤股份（601666）：關(guān)注高業(yè)績彈性和河南省的資源整合10年公司煤礦產(chǎn)量增長主要來自既有煤礦的技改增產(chǎn)以及首山礦投產(chǎn)新增100萬噸產(chǎn)量，我們預(yù)計10-11年公司煤炭產(chǎn)量分別為4013萬噸和4073萬噸，同比增長8%和1%。公司的母公司中平能化集團（或者上市公司）作為兼并主體可以兼并平頂山礦區(qū)、韓梁礦區(qū)、臨汝礦區(qū)、禹州礦區(qū)、郟縣礦區(qū)的小煤礦。作為三個5000萬噸級的煤炭企業(yè)之一的中平能化應(yīng)該能夠兼并大約2000萬噸的產(chǎn)能，考慮到兼并權(quán)益（可能51%），也即是說權(quán)益產(chǎn)量增加大約1000萬噸?？紤]到公司可能進行的盈余管理，我們謹慎的預(yù)計10-11年每股收益分別為1.46元和1.54元，同比增長46%和5%，建議投資者關(guān)注。（銀河駿馬工作組）所屬行業(yè)煤炭采選業(yè)煤炭采選業(yè)目前可流通市值(億元)375.417.49總市值(億元)375.417.50每股收益(元)（3Q09）10.29每股凈資產(chǎn)(元)5.484.09每股公積金(元)1.80.26每股未分配利潤(元)1.52.25凈利潤同比增長(%)-51.25-68.62凈資產(chǎn)收益率(%)18.427.02市盈率（TTM）19.4819.84市凈率4.836.08最新收盤價26.8724【近期跟蹤】推薦日期股票代碼股票名稱推薦價格（元）累計漲幅（%）累計最高漲幅（%）滬深300同期累計最高漲幅（%）超越滬深300比例（%）2010-4-1600649城投控股12.206.159.021.407.622010-3-31600325華發(fā)股份16.405.796.710.775.942010-3-31002024蘇寧電器18.900.580.950.770.182010-3-30600036招商銀行16.300.491.351.010.342010-3-30600028中國石化12.00-1.250.331.01-0.682010-3-29600016民生銀行7.483.614.683.591.092010-3-23002078太陽紙業(yè)19.733.854.412.721.692010-3-22600058五礦發(fā)展17.842.695.832.992.842010-3-22600966博匯紙業(yè)9.694.755.062.992.05 注：駿馬推薦股票超過10個交易日不再跟蹤，推薦價格為推薦日前一天收盤價。【重點回顧】推薦日期股票代碼股票名稱推薦價格（元）累計最高漲幅（%）超越滬深300比例（%）2010-4-1600649城投控股12.209.027.622010-3-31600325華發(fā)股份16.406.715.942010-3-19600067冠城大通13.4714.1810.362010-3-17600376首開股份18.5020.5414.662010-3-10000983西山煤電33.628.125.502010-2-26600017日照港7.4115.6512.612010-2-12000983西山煤電33.089.894.542010-2-11600037歌華有線15.1510.174.622010-2-11600271航天信息21.7910.144.592010-2-10600066宇通客車17.1715.788.742010-2-10600426華魯恒升19.1811.994.952010-1-19600377寧滬高速7.4112.0111.222010-1-18000680山推股份13.357.496.182010-1-15000488晨鳴紙業(yè)8.796.374.662010-1-13600806昆明機床15.495.876.062010-1-12601872招商輪船5.7411.8510.312010-1-11600718東軟集團23.5022.5519.272010-1-11600030中信證券32.2610.016.732010-1-6000022深赤灣15.2913.0212.162010-1-5600271航天信息20.5419.8118.142010-1-5002152廣電運通33.0015.0013.322010-1-4600616金楓酒業(yè)17.9224.7824.162010-1-4600897廈門空港18.2516.1115.492009-12-31601898中煤能源13.546.575.482009-12-30600806昆明機床14.2914.7711.992009-12-29002018華星化工12.4419.7716.342009-12-25600037歌華有線13.8938.1633.542009-12-25000039中集集團12.2525.6321.012009-12-24600271航天信息18.2634.7826.942009-12-14600835上海機電13.806.525.172009-12-11600271航天信息18.4033.7532.462009-12-10600616金楓酒業(yè)17.3428.9527.0220000726魯泰A11.6617.1515.222009-12-8600037歌華有線14.0536.5836.522009-12-8000729燕京啤酒17.5226.1426.082009-12-7002202金風(fēng)科技29.7720.9320.122009-12-7600143金發(fā)科技11.194.924.112009-12-4600598北大荒15.296.614.322009-12-3000887中鼎股份13.6122.8520.752009-12-2000690寶新能源9.8621.4018.262009-12-1000659珠海中富7.3017.8113.222009-12-1000816江淮動力7.3710.856.272009-11-30600327大廈股份12.7821.7513.172009-11-25600795國電電力7.2316.8713.362009-11-24000823超聲電子8.8659.5958.702009-11-24600426華魯恒升21.8215.7214.832009-11-23600268國電南自17.8465.9864.132009-11-23002097山河智能18.8719.6117.762009-11-20601899紫金礦業(yè)10.0214.7713.242009-11-19600019寶鋼股份7.9023.0421.172009-11-18600028中國石化12.3216.4814.552009-11-18600064南京高科25.2013.0611.132009-11-16000715中興商業(yè)9.9643.5738.482009-11-16600717天津港12.1113.388.282009-11-13601872招商輪船5.5815.059.392009-11-12600026中海發(fā)展14.5412.386.592009-11-11000012南玻A17.7528.4522.902009-11-11600741華域汽車10.2416.1110.572009-11-11600195中牧股份23.1312.416.862009-11-10600438通威股份9.2642.3336.542009-11-10600428中遠航運11.3412.436.652009-11-9600227赤天化11.5521.7315.562009-11-9000022深赤灣14.2021.6915.512009-11-6000726魯泰A9.9037.9831.232009-11-6600028中國石化12.2217.4310.682009-11-5600271航天信息18.3833.9026.822009-11-4000528桂柳工19.1722.5914.942009-1600177雅戈爾14.3115.167.522009-11-3600736蘇州高新7.4543.6234.622009-10-30000823超聲電子7.5986.3072.412009-10-30600588用友軟件20.1154.0540.162009-10-28600125鐵龍物流7.4471.2459.672009-10-28600718東軟集團20.8538.1326.562009-10-27002267陜天然氣18.9835.1926.882009-10-27000898鞍鋼股份13.6019.5611.242009-10-26601872招商輪船5.3320.4512.172009-10-23600797浙大網(wǎng)新5.9053.9043.422009-10-22600966博匯紙業(yè)9.7214.925.162009-10-22000402金融街13.4014.554.792009-10-20600837海通證券14.3344.4533.372009-10-20600026中海發(fā)展13.2823.0411.962009-10-19000024招商地產(chǎn)27.1427.8213.742009-10-19000680三推股份11.5624.1310.062009-10-19600348國陽新能42.7019.445.362009-10-16000937金牛能源34.0041.1526.992009-10-16000876新希望11.8026.2712.122009-10-15000933神火股份27.7546.4131.832009-10-150000616億城股份6.0942.2027.612009-10-14000027深圳能源11.6225.399.772009-10-14601898中煤能源12.3823.678.052009-10-13000059遼通化工10.1633.7616.422009-10-12000401冀東水泥14.3339.2222.332009-10-12600016民生銀行6.9823.937.032009-10-12600642申能股份10.9021.014.122009-10-9000612焦作萬方17.8580.3957.322009-10-9601088中國神華30.3628.105.022009-9-22600177雅戈爾13.2324.579.312009-9-18600037歌華有線12.3555.3844.002009-9-18600064南京高科22.3027.7616.372009-9-17002104恒寶股份10.20126.76113.262009-9-17600410華勝天成12.3172.7159.202009-9-16601898中煤能源12.9418.326.342009-9-15000402金融街12.7120.778.482009-9-15600795國電電力7.0719.527.232009-9-14000926福星股份8.8863.9649.762009-9-14000562宏源證券20.1031.8417.642009-9-9600736蘇州高新6.6062.1245.502009-9-9600026中海發(fā)展12.8427.2610.632009-9-8600060海信電器12.06136.24117.102009-9-7000933神火股份24.0069.2949.112009-9-7600697歐亞集團18.4958.4138.232009-9-4600271航天信息15.8854.9733.802009-9-4000401冀東水泥13.4448.4427.272009-9-3600741華域汽車7.9549.5621.642009-8-27600178東安動力10.5574.4157.842009-8-27000759武漢中百9.5249.1632.592009-8-25600655豫園商城16.3193.0778.562009-8-25600831廣電網(wǎng)絡(luò)7.4191.7777.262009-8-25600664哈藥股份16.5821.296.782009-8-21600736蘇州高新6.3468.7751.162009-8-6600085同仁堂18.6038.0138.052009-8-6600439瑞貝卡9.9335.2535.282009-8-5600004白云機場10.6615.9515.882009-8-4000612焦作萬方22.6042.4842.052009-8-4600018上港集團6.3711.9311.512009-8-3000401冀東水泥15.6027.8826.052009-7-31600028中國石化14.1210.205.572009-7-31600019寶鋼股份9.459.314.682009-7-30600718東軟集團18.2757.6450.762009-7-29600845寶信軟件25.4348.0946.842009-7-29000729燕京啤酒15.7939.9638.702009-7-29000876新希望11.7826.4925.232009-7-28600808馬鋼股份5.9220.4418.852009-7-27600557康緣藥業(yè)15.2470.5466.842009-7-27000488晨鳴紙業(yè)8.8119.5215.832009-7-24600704中大股份16.9070.0665.922009-7-23600308華泰股份12.3743.4137.972009-7-23600500中化國際13.3010.835.392009-7-22600690青島海爾14.2981.8874.442009-7-22600230滄州大化14.5767.8160.372009-7-21600309煙臺萬華17.5750.2644.352009-7-21000709唐鋼股份9.9613.657.752009-7-20600138中青旅12.1057.6049.562009-7-20600004白云機場10.0423.1115.062009-7-17600858銀座股份21.4133.5824.962009-7-16600685廣船國際24.9341.0332.172009-7-16600087長航油運6.8524.8215.952009-7-16000680山推股份12.3716.017.142009-7-15000989九芝堂10.7846.1036.022009-7-15600795國電電力7.5615.875.792009-7-14601991大唐發(fā)電8.5941.2128.062009-7-14600693東百集團9.2532.7619.602009-7-13600085同仁堂17.4846.8534.942009-7-13600717天津港13.1217.385.472009-7-9000568瀘州老窖29.3437.6624.212009-7-9600068葛洲壩12.5118.715.262009-7-8600418江淮汽車5.98108.7094.852009-7-7600690青島海爾13.2895.7183.022009-7-7600143金發(fā)科技9.3540.1127.422009-7-3600122宏圖高科13.1950.8735.042009-7-2000562宏源證券21.6829.0611.602009-7-1000401冀東水泥13.8044.5724.462009-6-30601919中國遠洋13.8246.2426.642009-6-30601898中煤能源12.4435.7716.182009-6-29600736蘇州高新5.8881.9760.412009-6-29600664哈藥股份14.1142.5220.962009-6-26000933神火股份19.61107.1985.222009-6-26000718蘇寧環(huán)球13.4233.3811.412009-6-25000024招商地產(chǎn)28.7337.4915.622009-6-25601006大秦鐵路10.3726.814.942009-6-24600005武鋼股份8.1154.1330.812009-6-24601628中國人壽26.8829.025.702009-6-22600019寶鋼股份6.6555.3431.862009-6-22601088中國神華27.6652.3928.912009-6-19000800一汽轎車15.1082.4558.142009-6-19000527美的電器13.1879.0654.712009-6-18600281太化股份7.3665.7639.442009-6-18000729燕京啤酒14.6251.1624.882009-6-12000759武漢中百9.6447.3018.892009-6-11000728國元證券18.2551.6724.462009-6-11600019寶鋼股份6.9149.4922.282009-6-10000612焦作萬方13.59136.94108.482009-6-10600665天地源5.7544.3515.892009-6-9002142寧波銀行10.9863.4834.502009-6-9600322天房發(fā)展5.6636.407.412009-6-8600785新華百貨16.3891.2761.882009-6-8600030中信證券26.9044.2414.852009-6-5600966博匯紙業(yè)7.86