KPMG+2023全球半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)大調(diào)查

Navigating

short-term

volatility

inthe

semiconductorindustryMakersofvitaltecharereadytoovercometoday’s

obstacles2023KPMGGlobalSemiconductorIndustryOutlookFebruary

2023/semiconductorsKeyfindingsContentsImpactofCOVID-19FinancialexpectationsGrowthproductsIssues&prioritiesNextstepsForeword23This

is

the

18th

annual

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlookwith

key

findings

from

a

survey

of

151

senior

executives

from

globalsemiconductor

companies

conducted

in

the

fourth

quarter

of

2022

byKPMG

and

the

Global

Semiconductor

Alliance

(GSA).The

publication

isdesigned

for

semiconductor

CEOs,

COOs,

CFOs,

controllers,

financeleaders,

and

strategic

and

corporate

development

personnel.

Thisreport

is

equally

relevant

for

executives

of

companies

whose

productsare

heavily

reliant

on

semiconductor

components,

including

productsfor

telecommunications,

telecommunication

infrastructure,

cloudservices,

platform

providers,

Internet

of

Things

(IoT)

applications,

andautomotive

electronic

applications.Key

findingsFinancial

expectationsOperational

expectationsGrowth

products49141723242526Strategic

and

industry

issuesNext

stepsResearch

methodologyAbout

KPMG

and

the

GSAAbout

the

authors?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.1GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookForewordNo

one

doubts

that

the

world

runs

on

small

but

powerful

semiconductors

inside

all

things

digital

and

connectedDespite

supply

chain,

talent,

and

political-economic

challenges,

the

2023

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Outlookshows

the

industry

future

is

looking

brightIn

the

fourth

quarter

of

2022,

KPMG

LLP

andthe

Global

Semiconductor

Alliance

(GSA)surveyed

151

semiconductor

executivesabout

the

financial,

strategic,

and

operationaltrends,

issues,

and

agenda

items

across

theindustry

and

ecosystem.

The

research

showsthat

despite

headwinds,

global

semiconductorexecutives

maintain

an

overall

positive

outlookfor

the

industry

in

2023

and

beyond.such

as

automotive,

wireless

communications,and

cloud

computing.

Taken

together,

we

seethe

criticality

of

semiconductor

technologies

tothe

world’s

economy,

infrastructure,

products,and

services

continuing

to

be

dominant.Macro

economic

factors,

supply/demandimbalance,

talent,

and

political

risks

aremajor

forces

of

pressure

on

today’s

globalsemiconductor

market.

However,

industryexecutives

see

growth

potential

in

their

owncompanies

and

know

that

long

term,

theindustry

is

viable

and

growing,

even

if

a

normalcyclical

correction

is

underway.

Strategic

plans,Forward-looking

perspectives

on

a

rangeof

topics

demonstrate

this

optimistic

view.Eighty-one

percent

of

respondents

expect

theircompany’s

revenue

to

grow

year

over

year.Lincoln

ClarkLeader,

Global

Semiconductor

PracticeKPMG

LLPlincolnclark@Eighty

percent

expect

to

soon

see

an

end

to

the

actions,

and

investments

through

2023

willchip

shortage

that

has

been

burdening

OEMand

other

manufacturers

and

frustrating

endcustomers

in

search

of

all

sorts

of

everydayitems

that

were

in

short

or

limited

supply.And—using

government

funds

in

certaingeographies—companies

plan

to

invest

in

chipproduction,

research,

innovation,

and

talent

tomeet

demand

from

expanding

end

markets,allow

chipmakers

to

power

through

theseuncertainties

with

resilience.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.2GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookKeyfindingsKey

findingsImpactofCOVID-19FinancialexpectationsGrowthproductsIssues&prioritiesNextstepsFinancial

expectationsGrowth

products81%#1expect

theircompany’srevenue

toExpectations

for

annualAutomotive

is

the

mostSensors/MEMS

are

the

mostimportant

growth

productfor

the

industry.operating

profitability

of

theindustry

going

up

or

downare

evenly

split.important

applicationdriving

semiconductorcompanies’

revenuestreams.increase

in

2023.6

4%#2expect

industryrevenue

toincrease

in

2023.The

majority

plan

toincrease

spending

onCapex,

workforce

and

R&D.Wireless

ranks

as

thesecond

most-criticalend

market,

followed

bycloud,

IoT,

and

AI.Operational

expectationsStrategic

and

industry

issues52%will

ease

by

mid-

46%diversity

of

the#1think

the

chipsupply

shortagewill

increasegeographicalA

global

talent

shortageis

the

top

issue

in

thesemiconductor

ecosystem.Nationalization

ofsemiconductor

technologyis

a

top

geopolitical

concern.2023.supply

chainin

the

next

12months.24%67%believe

there

is

already

aninventory

excess

and

the

chipsupply

shortage

is

over.say

talent

risk

is

the

top

strategicpriority

over

the

next

three

years.Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.3GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookKeyfindingsFinancialImpactofCOVID-19FinancialexpectationsGrowthproductsIssues&prioritiesNextstepsexpectationsKey

takeaways—

81%expecttheircompany’s

revenuetoincreasein2023,and64%expectindustryrevenuetoincrease.—

Expectationsforannualoperatingprofitabilityoftheindustrygoingupordownareevenlysplit.—

ThemajorityplantoincreasespendingonCapex,workforceandR&D.Almost

two-thirds

of

semiconductor

leadersare

predicting

industry

revenue

will

increase,not

contract

That’s

a

positive

indicator

for

theupcoming

year

given

the

current

economics

andthe

fact

the

industry

is

almost

at

the

point

ofhaving

excess

inventoryMark

Gibson,

GlobalSectorHeadofTechnology,Media&

Telecommunications,

KPMGInternational?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.4GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookFinancial

expectationsLeaders

remain

optimistic

about

revenue

growth,

thoughslower

rates

expectedWhat

is

your

outlook

for

your

company’s

revenue

growth

over

the

next

yearcompared

to

the

current

year?

(select

one)Semiconductor

executives’

views

on

their

own

company’s

growth

are

somewhatmore

bullish

than

anticipated,

given

that

the

industry

is

in

the

midst

of

a

normalcorrection

cycle

and

many

economists

around

the

world

are

predicting

a

recession.More

than

8

in

10

respondents

(81

percent)

expect

their

company’s

revenue

toincrease

over

the

coming

year.

Almost

one-quarter

(23

percent)

expect

growth

ofmore

than

20

percent.81%13%

6%What

is

your

outlook

for

the

annual

revenue

growth

of

the

globalsemiconductor

industry

over

the

next

year?

(select

one)Although

generally

optimistic,

expectations

are

lower

than

those

expressed

in

lastyear’s

survey,

when

nearly

all

respondents

(95

percent)

predicted

their

company’s1revenue

to

increase.

New

factors

in

play

in

the

semiconductor

ecosystem—fears

ofa

downturn,

increased

geopolitical

focus,

risks

to

the

supply

chain,

and

rising

globalinflation—are

understandably

hampering

leaders’

outlook,

though,

as

a

general

trend,most

remain

positive.64%31%5%Stressors

in

the

ecosystem

are

having

a

more

significant

impact

on

this

year’sindustrywide

outlook,

with

cost

pressures

the

key

underlying

factor

driving

downsentiment.

Facing

increased

prices

for

capital,

materials,

and

labor,

industry

growthand

profitability

projections

are

somewhat

uncertain.What

is

your

estimate

for

the

change

in

the

annual

operating

profitability

ofthe

global

semiconductor

industry

over

the

next

year?

(select

one)44%43%13%Company

growth

expectations

outpace

those

for

the

broad

industry,

as

reflected

inthis

research

and

other

industry

forecasts.

In

last

year’s

survey,

97

percent

forecastedindustry

revenue

would

grow

in

2022.

This

year,

64

percent

of

respondents

forecast2the

industry’s

revenue

will

grow

in

2023.

Nearly

half

(45

percent)

predict

industrygrowth

of

10

percent

or

less.

The

forecast

from

the

World

Semiconductor

Trade4

Increase4

Decrease4

No

changeStatistics

is

also

in

the

single

digits,

predicting

growth

of

4.1

percent

in

2023.3Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.Further,

there

is

an

even

split

among

those

who

think

industry

operating

profitabilitywill

increase

(44

percent)

versus

decrease

(43

percent).

This

research

indicatesrevenue

growth

is

not

all

being

passed

through

to

the

bottom

line,

largely

becauseinflation

in

supply

chains

is

being

absorbed

by

chipmakers

and

not

all

being

passed

onto

customers.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.5GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookFinancial

expectationsIndirect

impacts

of

the

Russia-Ukraine

War

lower

growth

projectionsGeopolitical

issues

also

seem

to

have

a

notable

influence

on

industry

revenue

projections.

Forty-one

percent

ofsemiconductor

executives

are

concerned

the

Russia-Ukraine

war

will

materially

impact

industry

revenue

growthin

2023,

a

substantial

increase

from

prior

KPMG

research

conducted

in

May

2022,

when

a

smaller

minority

(25percent)

expressed

that

view.4The

indirect

impact

of

the

war

is

manifested

in

several

different

ways,

with

some

parties

blaming

it

for

the

highcost

of

energy,

which

is

a

factor

that

has

driven

up

inflation

and

interest

rates

and

slowed

demand.

The

2023outlook

published

by

KPMG

Economics

predicts

a

shallow

recession

in

2023.5How

concerned

are

you

that

the

Russia-Ukraine

war

will

materially

impact

revenuegrowth

for

the

semiconductor

industry

in

2023?

(select

one)41%12%21%26%32%9%Not

at

all

concernedVery

concerned44Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.6GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookFinancial

expectationsSpending

to

increase

as

inflationary

pressure

buildsWhat

is

your

outlook

for

semiconductor-related

capital

spending

by

yourcompany

(both

equipment

and

software)

over

the

next

year

compared

withyour

company’s

current

year

spending?

(select

one)When

it

comes

to

spending

plans

for

2023,

rising

global

inflation

and

interest

ratesare

the

big

story.

Sixty-two

percent

of

semiconductor

leaders

expect

their

company’scapital

spending

(CapEx)

on

equipment

and

software

to

increase

from

last

year.Only

15

percent

plan

to

make

CapEx

reductions.

Three-quarters

also

say

their

R&Dspending

will

go

up.

While

companies

need

to

invest

to

meet

future

demand,

theywill

be

hesitant

to

borrow

at

the

same

levels

as

they

would

in

a

lower-interest-rateenvironment.6,

762%15%23%During

the

next

year,

do

you

expect

your

company’s

global

workforce

toincrease

or

decrease?

(select

one)More

than

7

in

10

respondents

(71

percent)

also

expect

their

company’s

globalworkforce

to

expand.

Contributing

to

this

view

are

the

strategic

commitments

beingmade

around

the

world

to

increase

chip

output,

including

in

the

U.S.,

the

E.U.,

andChina.

To

boost

capacity,

each

country

is

likely

to

create

manufacturing-related

jobs

to71%15%15%build

new

foundries

and

higher-paying

specialized

jobs

to

staff

new

facilities.8Further,

while

workforce

expansion

would

drive

up

the

cost

of

doing

business

in

anyeconomic

environment,

it

could

reach

new

levels

when

we

factor

in

current

wageinflation

and

the

competitive

talent

marketplace.

It

is

also

notable

that,

while

major9What

is

your

expectation

for

the

change

in

R&D

spending

by

your

companyfor

the

next

year

over

the

current

year?

(select

one)players

in

the

broader

technology

sector

made

headline-grabbing

cuts

and

layoffs

in2022,10

the

semiconductor

industry

has

been

slower

so

far

in

enacting

headcountcuts.75%8%17%4

Increase4

Decrease4

No

changeSource:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.7GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookFinancial

expectations202320222023

Semiconductor

IndustryConfidence

IndexIndustryConfidence

Index(n

=

151)(n

=

152)Near-term

challenges

across

the

global

semiconductorindustry

and

ecosystem

have

arisen

in

the

past

year,impacting

leader

confidence.

The

2023

SemiconductorConfidence

Index

score

of

56

represents

a

steepdecline

from

the

all-time

high

of

74

in

2022

and

thelowest

level

in

half

a

decade.

Every

individual

input

ofthe

2023

Semiconductor

Confidence

Index

is

downfrom

the

previous

year.

Demand

has

been

negativelyimpacted

by

the

macro

economic

environment,including

increasing

inflation

and

interest

rates,

andsemiconductor

companies

are

slowing

down

2023investments.

Nevertheless,

the

long-term

viabilityof

this

essential

industry

remains

strong,

withrespondents

expressing

an

overall

positive

outlookdespite

near-term

obstacles.725854593987786869662023RevenueGrowth56CapitalSpending2022WorkforceGrowth74R&D

SpendingChangeProfitabilityChange*Anindexvalueabove50indicatesa

morepositive(ratherthannegative)outlookabouttheindustryanditsprospects.Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey

2023,

n=151KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey

2022,

n=152?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.8GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookKeyfindingsOperationalImpactofCOVID-19FinancialexpectationsGrowthproductsIssues&prioritiesNextstepsexpectationsKey

takeaways—

52%thinkthechipsupplyshortagewilleasebymid-2023.—

24%believethereisalreadyaninventoryexcessandthechipsupplyshortageisover.—

46%willincreasegeographicaldiversityofthesupplychaininthenext12months.Softening

demand

in

today’s

tight

globaleconomic

climate

is

rebalancing

product

inthe

semiconductor

industry

According

to

ourresearch,

many

people

in

the

know

are

sayingthe

chip

supply

shortage

is

already

over”Chris

Gentle,

Partner,

GlobalSemiconductorPractice,KPMGLLP?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.9GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookOperational

expectationsSupply

chain

diversification

tops

the

operational

agendaAs

international

conflicts

give

rise

to

more

nationalization

of

technology

and

restrictivetrade

policies

in

key

regions,

the

resilience

of

semiconductor

supply

chains

is

underthreat.To

improve

agility

and

resiliency,

nearly

half

of

semiconductor

executives

will

increasegeographic

diversity

of

their

supply

chain.

It

is

the

leading

change

planned

for

the

next12

months

(46

percent)

as

well

as

13

to

36

months

into

the

future

(48

percent).What

changes

do

you

expect

to

make

to

improve

supply

chain

agility

and

resiliency

in

your

company?

(select

all

that

apply)Within

the

next

12

months?

In

the

next

13–36

months?IncreasegeographicalIncreasegeographical46%48%47%diversityofsupplychaindiversityofsupplychainBuildamoresustainablesupplychainBuildamoresustainablesupplychain36%34%31%30%IncreasemanufacturingcapacityNew/revisedcontinuityplans39%36%Investindigitizingmysupplychain(predictiveanalytics,automation,etc.)Investindigitizingmysupplychain(predictiveanalytics,automation,etc.)Buildamorecustomer-centricsupplychainIncreasemanufacturingcapacityReprioritizeendmarkets26%25%25%23%Increaseinternalsupplychaincapabilities26%25%24%Buildamorecustomer-centricsupplychainNew/revisedcontinuityplansIncreaseinternalsupplychaincapabilitiesReprioritizeendmarketsDonotanticipatefurtherchangesBuildoutmoreinventoryOtherBuildoutmoreinventoryDonotanticipatefurtherchangesOther11%9%9%8%2%1%Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.10

GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookOperational

expectationsAt

a

regional

level,

U.S.

companies

are

particularly

focused

on

supply

chaindiversification

due

to

trade

restrictions

with

China,

making

it

difficult

to

sourcecomponents

or

assemblies

from

Asia.11

The

influence

of

the

CHIPS

and

Science

Act—U.S.

federal

statute

signed

into

law

in

August

2022—is

also

playing

a

key

role.

The

actprovides

roughly

$280

billion

in

new

funding

to

strengthen

domestic

semiconductormanufacturing,

design,

and

research.12More

than

half

(55

percent)

of

respondents

also

selected

the

long-term

impactsof

the

Russia-Ukraine

war

as

a

significant

geopolitical

issue

for

their

businesses.Semiconductor

companies

have

been

dealing

with

the

operational

impacts

of

theRussia-Ukraine

war

for

approximately

one

year,

putting

contingencies

in

place

tosource

neon

and

palladium

and

other

raw

chip

materials

outside

of

Ukraine.(And,

many

companies

had

already

divested

away

from

the

region

after

the

Crimeainvasion

by

the

Russian

military

in

2014.)

Yet,

nearly

one

in

three

respondents(29

percent)

are

still

concerned

or

very

concerned

about

the

war

materially

impactingthe

semiconductor

supply

chain.

Among

those

who

expressed

concern,

the

leadingaction

planned

will

be

adjusting

prices,

selected

by

54

percent

of

respondents.In

the

APAC

region,

making

the

supply

chain

more

flexible

and

adaptable

to

geopoliticalchanges

and

other

disruptions

is

the

highest

priority.

With

the

U.S.

governmentexpanding

trade

restrictions

on

technology

products,

Chinese

semiconductorcompanies

are

scrambling

to

figure

out

where

to

buy

the

equipment

to

continuemaking

advanced

node

products

or

whether

to

expand

to

where

restrictions

are

lessdebilitating.

Further,

these

trade

restrictions

are

impacting

China’s

ability

to

importadvanced

chips

for

their

own

manufacturing

and

end

products.Finally,

supply

chain

sustainability

is

also

an

operational

focus

area

for

globalchipmakers.

Thirty-six

percent

of

respondents

will

make

changes

to

build

a

moreflexible

and

resilient

supply

chain

in

the

coming

year.

That

percentages

jumps

to47

percent

when

looking

over

a

two-

to

three-year

time

span.In

addition,

Asian

chip

players

in

Taiwan,

Japan,

South

Korea,

Singapore,

and

Malaysiaare

much

more

dependent

on

China-based

imports

for

components

than

U.S.

chipmanufacturers,

and

the

gap

looks

set

to

further

widen

as

the

CHIPS

and

Science

Actbolsters

domestic

manufacturing

in

the

U.S.What

are

you

doing

to

address

your

organization’s

concerns?(select

all

that

apply)How

concerned

are

you

that

the

Russia-Ukraine

war

will

materially

impactthe

semiconductor

supply

chain

in

2023?

(select

one)54%More

verticalintegration26%Adjusting

pricesAlternative

sources

ofraw

materials(e.g.,neon,palladium,etc.)38%37%Reducing

outputOther24%Moving

to

long-termcontracts13%Source:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

among

those

who

are

concernedthe

Russia-Ukraine

war

will

materially

impact

the

semiconductor

industry,

n=68.NotatallconcernedVeryconcernedSource:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.11

GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookOperational

expectationsEnd

of

the

semiconductor

shortage

is

in

sightOur

research

indicates

that

the

supply-demand

imbalance

in

the

industry

has

lessened

More

than

two-thirds

of

respondents

(52

percent)

think

that

by

mid-2023,

the

supplyand

stabilization

of

the

global

chip

shortage

is

fast

approaching

or

already

here.

In

fact,the

industry

could

be

shifting

from

a

constrained

environment,

where

it

was

difficult

toget

product,

to

one

of

abundance

driven

by

excess

inventory

and

weakened

demand,as

recently

seen

in

memory.shortage

with

have

eased.

Fifteen

percent

think

supply

and

demand

is

already

inbalance

for

most

products,

while

only

20

percent

think

the

shortage

will

last

into

2024or

later.15%Current

supply/demand

is

inbalance

for

most

productsWhen

do

you

anticipate

the

semiconductor

supplyshortage

will

ease?26%Early202352%26%

Mid202313%End20234%4%Early2024Mid202420%9%End20243%OtherSource:

KPMG

Global

Semiconductor

Industry

Outlook

Survey,

n=151.?

2023

KPMG

LLP,a

Delaware

limited

liability

partnership

and

a

member

firm

of

the

KPMG

global

organization

of

independent

member

firms

affiliated

with

KPMGInternational

Limited,

a

private

English

company

limited

by

guarantee.

All

rights

reserved.12

GlobalsemiconductorindustryoutlookOperational

expectationsSince

the

semiconductor

industry

is