2022年特許經(jīng)營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告（英）

2022FRANCHISINGOUTLOOKtYin2022.tEconomicEconomicOutlook:2018-2022agechangeagechangeagechangeagechange%3.1%2.1%2.1%taurantsFranchiseFranchiseEstablishmentsbyBusinessPercentagechangesPercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechangesPercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechange2%rtantrolenotonlyonthenationallevelbutalsoonthestatelevel.Nationalfranchisingactivitylargelyreboundedtopre-pandemiclevelsin2021,butehssTopTop10StatesbyGrowthRateFranchiseOutput(inmillion$)2021$71,354$61,632$19,598$13,433$3,179$19,861$30,197$1,950$5,190$11,1852022$76,014$65,363$20,730$14,209$3,361$20,984$31,868$2,053$5,463$11,770202175,43558,8859,1084,8294,1878,92428,2112,7705,7088,418202278,25060,8099,6805,2734,3109,46828,9902,8405,8508,625FranchiseEstablishmentsGrowthRateGrowthRateGrowthRateEmploymentranchise$52,208$16,932$25,714$11,485$16,663$59,707675,827203,396211,391337,038349,487227,795219,435307,075200,156814,963587,814648,554697,058778,577105,542185,035102,078157,903164,107144,451$9,605$4,472$2,712$1,674States56,13442,39393,78420,98027,19423,62922,84437,24958,05540,81571,4198,3918,2634,35256,46751,756202020212020202220204,0432,6928,1825,568NCNVMTTNNEAZSCTX5.5%5.7%5.8%5.3%5.7%5.2%5.3%4.2%4.7%5.8%6.5%6.1%3.8%3.9%3.9%3.7%3.4%3.0%2.5%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.4%3.4%2.5%2.5%3.9%3.7%3.0%3.3%IDv RODUCTIONFRANCHISING+2.2%EMPLOYMENT+3.1%OUTPUT+4.9%yAYEAROFREBALANCING&NORMALIZATIONEconomicEconomicOutlook:2018-2022PercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechangePercentagechanget2%7%3.1%7%FranchiseBusinessTOTALFRANCHISEESTABLISHMENTSFRANCHISEGROWTHRATE2.8%FranchiseEstablishmentsbyBusinessLineagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechange%%%%agechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeagechangeFranchiseEmploymentbyBusinessLineFranchiseEmploymentEmploymentDistributionbySectorRealEstatetialServicesalServicesnessServicesRetailFoodProductsServicesableFullServiceRestaurantsQuickServiceRestaurants3.3%.6%.5%7.2%.4%FRANCHISEEMPLOYMENTINCREASEDTO8.2MILLIONANETGAINOF660,300JOBSFROM2020.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2022202298tagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangetagechangeutputbyBusinessLineBillion0stCESFRANCHISESTHATOFFERSEAMLESSTECHNOLOGYSUPPORTFORREMOTETECHNOLOGYSUPPORTFORREMOTEWORKLREALESTATEEMPLOYMENTISFORECASTTOGROWBY4.3%-ANINCREASEOF11,600+JOBSUU.S.Retail&FoodServiceSales200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021(Est.)OFRETAILEXECUTIVESPLANTOMAKE80%OFRETAILEXECUTIVESPLANTOMAKEDIGITAL&SUPPLYCHAINIMPROVEMENTS.$76.4BILLION5%INCREASEMidwestNortheastSoutheastSouthwestWestNORTHEAST:Employment:1,268,424Output:$143.7billionWESTEmployment:1,575,734Output:$165.5billionMIDWESTEmployment:1,866,149Output:$171.6billionSOUTHWESTMidwestNortheastSoutheastSouthwestWestNORTHEAST:Employment:1,268,424Output:$143.7billionWESTEmployment:1,575,734Output:$165.5billionMIDWESTEmployment:1,866,149Output:$171.6billionSOUTHWESTEmployment:1,178,656Output:$109.9billionSOUTHEASTEmployment:2,560,200Output:$235.9billion22022FranchisingOutlookbyRegionTopTop10StatesforFranchiseGrowthin2022THETOP10STATESFORFRANCHISEGROWTHIN20221.TEXAS2.FLORIDA3.ARIZONA4.SOUTHCAROLINA5.IDAHO6.TENNESSEE7.NORTHCAROLINA8.MONTANA9.NEBRASKA10.NEVADAThetop10statesforfranchisegrowthinandthethird-highestnumberofjobopenings2022(inorder)areprojectedtobeTexas,perunemployedpersonatarateof2.7.Florida,Arizona,SouthCarolina,Idaho,TennesseeandSouthCarolinaaretwooftheTennessee,NorthCarolina,Montana,Nebraska,fivestatesthatdonothavestateminimumwageandNevada.requirementsbutfollowthefederalminimumwageguidelines,whichallowsmallbusinesses,Trendsonpopulationmigrationshavereflectedlikefranchises,tohitthegroundrunning;thisandevendrivenstates’franchisegrowth.Wecouldhelpexplainwhyfranchisesinthesestateshaveseenanincreasingnumberofpeoplehavequicklyrebounded.NorthCarolinahasmovefromCaliforniaandtheNortheasttothemaintaineditsreputationasatoplocationformountainousWestandSouth.Accordingtothebusinessinvestment,withacombinationofU.S.CensusBureau’sPopulationEstimates,qualityinfrastructure,atop-notcheducationbetween2020and2021,Texas,Florida,system,askilledworkforce,andabusiness-Arizona,andNorthCarolinasawthegreatestfriendlyenvironment.7numericalpopulationgrowth,andIdaho,Utah,Montana,Arizona,andSouthCarolinasawtheMinimumwagelawsthatwouldincreasethegreatestpercentagepopulationgrowth.minimumwagethresholdforlocalfranchisesmallbusinesseswouldplaceanenormousTheexplosionofremoteandhybridworkwasfinancialburdenonthesebusinesseswhohaveakeycontributortothisshift.Workingfromalreadybeenbatteredbytheeconomicfallouthomehasallowedpeopletorelocatetostatesofthepandemic.Asweemergefromthewithaffordablehousingandlowcostofliving,pandemic,anywagelawsshouldensurethatallsearchingforabetterqualityoflife.Therefore,businessesaretreatedequallywithregardtothesestatesareexpectedtoleadfranchiseminimumwagepolicy,preventingordinancesexpansionin2022becauseofincreasingfromrequiringindependentlyownedfranchiseconsumerdemandandspendingfacilitatedbybusinessestoimplementnewminimumpopulationgrowth,aswellasastrengthenedwagelevelsatafasterpacethanlabormarketwithincreasingjobopportunitiesnon-franchisedbusinesses.AsofDecember2021,NebraskaachievedtheIFAforecaststhatstatesintheWestandSouthlowestunemploymentrateacrossall50stateswillexperiencethefastestupwardtrajectoryofandWashington,D.C.Italsohadthehighestfranchisebusinessgrowthin2022.Franchisesjobopeningsperunemployedpersonatarateinallotherstatesarealsomostlikelygoingtoof4,comparedtothenationalaverageof1.5,rampupin2022,thoughataslightlylowerrate,reflectingthestate’sstronglabordemandandcontinuingtopropeltheeconomytoacceleratedeconomicgrowth.Montanahasconvalescefromthepandemic-inducedalsoestablishedasturdylabormarket,withtheeconomicdownturn.ionINTRODUCTION2022INFLATIONISLIKELYTODECELERATE...SUPPLYBOTTLENECKSANDINFLATIONISLIKELYTODECELERATE...SUPPLYBOTTLENECKSANDLABORSHORTAGES[WILL]GRADUALLYDISSIPATE.tIN2021FRANCHISEWORKERS+9.2%WAGE&SALARY+4.7%HOURLYEARNINGS+4.7%HOURLYEARNINGSWageWageandSalaryGrowth50ctJun14ctctJun14ctJunUnemploymentUnemploymentRatebyEducationalAttainmentdfireforthefranchisingindustry.13Pandemic-highlyproductiveworkers,increaseaverageinducedaspirationsforself-determinationoperatingcosts,andreduceproductivityacrossandfinancialindependenceraisedthetideoftheeconomy.Consequently,thebroadenedfranchiseinterestasthefranchisebusinessstandardrisksslowingeconomicgrowthinordermodeloffersworkerstheopportunitytocontroltobenefitworkerswhoalreadyearnhighwages.theirownlocalbusinesses.Goinginto2022,thebiggestchallengeforAnexpansivejointemployerrule,asproposedfranchiseemploymentisthelaborshortage,insomestatesandpotentiallyonthefederalwhichhasbeenmostacuteforlow-paying,level,wouldunderminetheabilityforworkersin-personjobs,suchasrestaurant,recreationtobecomefranchisebusinessowners.Duetoandhotelpositionsintheleisureandhospitalitythehighlyambiguousnatureofanexpandedsector.Franchisesshouldpreparethemselvesjointemployerstandard,itimpactstheentireforhiringcompetitioninthelabormarketbysupplychain.Asaresult,astandardlikethisbuildingcompetitiveadvantageandutilizingincentivizescompaniesacrosstheeconomyaccessibletechnologytomanagepotentialtoperformmoretasksin-houseratherthanincreasesonlaborcosts.BusinessesthatcanGrowthGrowthinRealPCEandComponents(%) RealPCEDurableGoodsNondurableGoodsServices50201620172018201920202021202220232024202520261/1/06-7/1/06-1/1/07-7/1/07-1/1/08-7/1/08-1/1/09-7/1/09-1/1/10-7/1/10-1/1/11-7/1/11-1/1/12-7/1/12-1/1/13-7/1/13-1/1/14-7/1/14-1/1/15-7/1/15-1/1/16-7/1/16-1/1/17-7/1/17-1/1/181/1/06-7/1/06-1/1/07-7/1/07-1/1/08-7/1/08-1/1/09-7/1/09-1/1/10-7/1/10-1/1/11-7/1/11-1/1/12-7/1/12-1/1/13-7/1/13-1/1/14-7/1/14-1/1/15-7/1/15-1/1/16-7/1/16-1/1/17-7/1/17-1/1/18-7/1/18-1/1/19-7/1/19-1/1/20-7/1/20-1/1/21-7/1/21--MedianMedianHourlyWageGrowthbyOccupationHighSkillLowSkillMidSkillOverall5.04.54.03.53.02.52.0500.50.0SourceSource:CurrentPopulationSurvey,BureauofLaborStatistics,andFederalReservceBankofAtlantaCalculationsConsumerConsumerConfidenceIndexSourceSource:TheConferenceBoardUU.S.HouseholdWealth$80,000$60,000InflationInflationRate(ConsumerPriceIndexforAllUrbanConsumers)eGrossGrossPrivateDomesticBusinessInvestment MonthlyMonthlyTotalBusinessFormations–ActualandProjectionsweeklyreportfromtheUSCensusBureaubasedonthenumberofapplicationsforEmployerhtheInternalRevenueServiceployerbusinessesthatoriginatefromBusinesslicationAN-06AN-07AN-08AN-09AN-10AN-11AN-12AN-13AN-14AN-15AN-16AN-17AN-18AN-19AN-20AN-21HousingMarketIndexJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanAN-06AN-07AN-08AN-09AN-10AN-11AN-12AN-13AN-14AN-15AN-16AN-17AN-18AN-19AN-20AN-21HousingMarketIndexJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJan0Jan1Jan2Jan3Jan4Jan5Jan6Jan7Jan8Jan9JanJanJanU..S.SmallBusinessOptimismIndex11010510095908580SourceSource:TheNationalFederationofIndependentBusiness(NFIB)NAHBNAHB/WellsFargoHousingMarketIndex(HMI)andNewSingle-FamilyStarts9000605040000HousingMarketIndexSingle-FamilyStarts0SourceSource:NAHB/WellsFargoHousingMarketIndex.U.S.CensusBureau.UU..S.WeeklyAverageMortgageRatesasof01/20/20224.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%YearFixedRateMortgagesAdjustableRateMortgageswithafixedinterestrateforthefirstyearsAPPENDIX|FranchiseEstablishmentsGrowthRateGrowthRateGrowthRateGrowthRateEst)State902.8%2.2%-2.6%ALASKAARIZONAARKANSASCALIFORNIACOLORADOCONNECTICUTDELAWAREDISTRICTOFCOLUMBIAFLORIDAGEORGIAHAWAIIIDAHOILLINOISINDIANAIOWAKANSASKENTUCKYLOUISIANAMAINEMARYLANDMASSACHUSETTSMICHIGANMINNESOTAMISSISSIPPIMISSOURIMONTANANEBRASKANEVADANEWHAMPSHIRENEWJERSEYNEWMEXICONEWYORKNORTHCAROLINANORTHDAKOTAOHIOOKLAHOMAOREGONPENNSYLVANIARHODEISLANDSOUTHCAROLINASOUTHDAKOTATENNESSEETEXASUTAHVERMONTVIRGINIAWASHINGTONWESTVIRGINIAWISCONSINWYOMINGTOTAL90Growth90GrowthRateALABAMAALASKAARIZONAARKANSASCALIFORNIACOLORADOCONNECTICUTDELAWAREDISTRICTOFCOLUMBIAFLORIDAGEORGIAHAWAIIIDAHOILLINOISINDIANAIOWAKANSASKENTUCKYLOUISIANAMAINEMARYLANDMASSACHUSETTSMICHIGANMINNESOTAMISSISSIPPIMISSOURIMONTANANEBRASKANEVADANEWHAMPSHIRENEWJERSEYNEWMEXICONEWYORKNORTHCAROLINANORTHDAKOTAOHIOOKLAHOMAOREGONPENNSYLVANIARHODEISLANDSOUTHCAROLINASOUTHDAKOTATENNESSEETEXASUTAHVERMONTVIRGINIAWASHINGTONWESTVIRGINIAWISCONSINWYOMINGTOTALAPPENDIX|FranchiseEmploymentStaStateEst)GrowthRateGrowthRate1%1%1%1%.1%1%1%1%1%1%-11.4%8.8%3.1%eOutputinmillionGrowthRateGrowthRateGrowthRateGrowthRate$1,093$6,238$2,918$3,574$5,953$3,361$6,749$6,821$2,477$5,718$2,053$5,463$3,170$4,810$2,977$8,367$8,643$2,236$1,890$7,110 $2,763620GrowthRateStateALABAMAALASKAARIZONAARKANSASCALIFORNIACOLORADOCONNECTICUTDELAWAREDISTRICTOFCOLUMBIAFLORIDAGEORGIAHAWAIIIDAHOILLINOISINDIANAIOWAKANSASKENTUCKYLOUISIANAMAINEMARYLANDMASSACHUSETTSMICHIGANMINNESOTAMISSISSIPPIMISSOURIMONTANANEBRASKANEVADANEWHAMPSHIRENEWJERSEYNEWMEXICONEWYORKNORTHCAROLINANORTHDAKOTAOHIOOKLAHOMAOREGONPENNSYLVANIARHODEISLANDSOUTHCAROLINASOUTHDAKOTATENNESSEETEXASUTAHVERMONTVIRGINIAWASHINGTONWESTVIRGINIAWISCONSINWYOMINGTOTAL9$1,105$5,890$2,862$3,411$5,966$3,132$6,674$6,668$9,907$2,459$5,564$1,939$5,185$3,105$4,682$2,916$8,036$8,356$2,222$1,866$6,862 $2,7981840 $5,078$9,434$2,437$2,950$5,068$2,712$5,667$5,670$8,489$9,417$2,051$4,783$1,674$4,472$9,605$2,659$4,021$2,488$6,988$7,146$1,876$1,573$5,754 $2,343,236-14.7%16.3%4.9%7462345678923456789“2022TravelIndustryOutlook.”DeloitteUnitedStates,20Jan.2022.deration“2022RetailIndustryOutlook.”DeloitteUnitedStates,13Jan.2022.HYPERLINK"/us/en/pages/consumer-bu