財(cái)政緊縮政策不再是必由之路

IthasbeenjokedthatthelettersIMFstandfor“it’smostlyfiscal”.TheInternationalMonetaryFundhaslongbeenastalwartadvocateofausterityastherouteoutoffinancialcrisis,andeveryyearitchastisesdozensofcountriesfortheirfiscalindiscipline.Fiscalconsolidation–aeuphemismforcutstogovernmentspending–isastapleofthefund’srescueprogrammes.AyearagotheIMFwassuggestingthattheUShadafiscalgapofasmuchas10percentofgrossdomesticproduct.國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)曾被戲稱為“以財(cái)政為主的組織(itsmostlyfiscal)”。長期以來，該組織一直是緊縮政策的忠實(shí)擁躉，認(rèn)為它是走出金融危機(jī)的必由之路。每年IMF都會因數(shù)十個國家財(cái)政上的放縱而譴責(zé)它們?！柏?cái)政整固”（削減政府開支的委婉說法）是IMF眾多救援計(jì)劃的主要內(nèi)容。一年前，該組織曾暗示美國財(cái)政缺口高達(dá)其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的10%。AllofthismakestheIMF’srecentlypublishedWorldEconomicOutlookaremarkableandimportantdocument.Initsflagshippublication,theIMFadvocatessubstantiallyincreasedpublicinfrastructureinvestment,andnotjustintheUSbutmuchoftheworld.Itassertsthatwhenunemploymentishigh,asitisinmuchoftheindustrialisedworld,thestimulativeimpactwillbegreaterifinvestmentispaidforbyborrowing,ratherthancuttingotherspendingorraisingtaxes.Mostnotably,theIMFassertsthatproperlydesignedinfrastructureinvestmentwillreduceratherthanincreasegovernmentdebtburdens.Publicinfrastructureinvestmentscanpayforthemselves.所有這些都令I(lǐng)MF最近發(fā)布的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(WorldEconomicOutlook)成為一份非同尋常的重要文件。在這份IMF頭號出版物中，該組織提議大幅增加公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資，這一倡議的對象不僅包括美國，還包括世界許多國家。該報(bào)告稱，在失業(yè)率高企之際——正如許多工業(yè)化國家目前的狀況，以借債而不是削減其他開支或增稅為投資籌措資金，對經(jīng)濟(jì)會有更大的刺激效果。最值得注意的是，IMF稱經(jīng)過精心規(guī)劃的基建投資會減輕而不是加重政府的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，因?yàn)楣不A(chǔ)設(shè)施投資本身就能帶來回報(bào)。WhydoestheIMFreachtheseconclusions?Considerahypotheticalinvestmentinanewhighwayfinancedentirelywithdebt.Assume–counterfactuallyandconservatively–thattheprocessofbuildingthehighwayprovidesnostimulativebenefit.Furtherassumethattheinvestmentearnsonlya6percentrealreturn,alsoaveryconservativeassumptiongivenwidelyacceptedestimatesofthebenefitsofpublicinvestment.Then,annualtaxcollectionsadjustedforinflationwouldincreaseby1.5percentoftheamountinvested,sincethegovernmentclaimsabout25centsoutofeveryadditionaldollarofincome.Realinterestcosts,thatisinterestcostslessinflation,arebelow1percentintheUSandmuchoftheindustrialisedworldoverhorizonsofupto30years.Soinfrastructureinvestmentactuallymakesitpossibletoreduceburdensonfuturegenerations.IMF為何會得出這樣的結(jié)論？考慮一筆假想的對一條新公路的投資，這筆資金完全通過舉債籌集。假定建設(shè)公路的過程中不會產(chǎn)生任何刺激性好處（這一假設(shè)違反事實(shí)并且保守）。除此以外，假定投資的實(shí)際收益只有6%——考慮到人們普遍接受的對公共投資收益的估計(jì)，這一假定也極為保守。那么，由于政府將從每一美元的新增收入中征收大約25美分的稅，經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的年度稅收增幅將為投資額的1.5%。而在長達(dá)30年的時(shí)間跨度內(nèi)，這筆投資在美國及眾多工業(yè)國家的實(shí)際利率成本（即扣除通脹因素后的利率成本）不到1%。因此，基建投資實(shí)際上可能會減輕未來幾代人的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。Infact,thiscalculationunderstatesthepositivebudgetaryimpactofwell-designedinfrastructureinvestment,astheIMFrecognised.Itneglectsthetaxrevenuethatcomesfromthestimulativebenefitofputtingpeopletoworkconstructinginfrastructure,aswellasthepossiblelong-runbenefitsthatcomefromcombatingrecession.Itneglectstherealitythatdeferringinfrastructurerenewalplacesaburdenonfuturegenerationsjustassurelyasdoesgovernmentborrowing.事實(shí)上，正如IMF認(rèn)識到的，這個計(jì)算過程低估了經(jīng)過精心規(guī)劃的基建投資對預(yù)算的積極影響。它忽略了人們得以從事基建工作這一刺激性好處帶來的稅收增長，以及對抗衰退可能帶來的長期好處。它還忽略了一個事實(shí)：推遲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施更新同政府舉債一樣，必然給未來幾代人造成負(fù)擔(dān)。Itignoresthefactthatbyincreasingtheeconomy’scapacity,infrastructureinvestmentincreasestheabilitytohandleanygivenlevelofdebt.Critically,ittakesnoaccountofthefactthatinmanycasesgovernmentcancatalyseadollarofinfrastructureinvestmentatacostofmuchlessthanadollarbyprovidingatrancheofequityfinancing,ataxsubsidyoraloanguarantee.它忽略的另一個事實(shí)是：通過提高整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)能，基建投資還提升了經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)對任何水平債務(wù)的能力。還有一個至關(guān)重要的問題是，它沒有考慮到如下事實(shí)：通過提供股權(quán)融資、稅收補(bǔ)貼或貸款擔(dān)保，政府促成一美元基建投資的成本可能會遠(yuǎn)低于一美元。Whenittakesthesefactorsintoaccount,theIMFfindsthatadollarofinvestmentincreasesoutputbynearly$3.Thebudgetaryarithmeticassociatedwithinfrastructureinvestmentisespeciallyattractiveatatimewhenthereareenoughunusedresourcesthatgreaterinfrastructureinvestmentneednotcomeattheexpenseofotherspending.Ifweareenteringaperiodofsecularstagnation,unemployedresourcescouldbeavailableinmuchoftheindustrialworldforquitesometime.IMF發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果將上述因素都考慮在內(nèi)，每一美元投資會增加近3美元的產(chǎn)出。在這個未利用資源足夠充足的時(shí)期，這種與基建投資相關(guān)的預(yù)算計(jì)算尤其具有吸引力，因?yàn)榧哟蠡ㄍ顿Y不一定會以犧牲其他開支為代價(jià)。如果說我們正在進(jìn)入長期停滯階段，那么對多數(shù)工業(yè)國家，在相當(dāng)長的時(shí)間內(nèi)都有未利用資源可用。Whilethecaseforinvestmentappliesalmosteverywhere–possiblyexceptingChina,whereinfrastructureinvestmenthasbeenusedastimulustoolforsometime–theappropriatestrategyfordoingmorediffersaroundtheworld.盡管加大投資的理由適用于幾乎所有地區(qū)（也許中國是個例外，那里把基建投資當(dāng)成刺激手段已有一段時(shí)間），但合適的投資策略因地區(qū)而異。TheUSneedslong-termbudgetingforinfrastructurethatrecognisesbenefitsaswellascosts.Projectsshouldbeapprovedwithreasonablespeed.Thegovernmentcancontributebysupportingprivateinvestmentsinareassuchastelecommunicationsandenergy.美國需要對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開展長期預(yù)算，在考慮成本的同時(shí)，還要考慮由此帶來的收益。對項(xiàng)目的批準(zhǔn)應(yīng)具備足夠的效率。政府可以通過支持電信及能源等領(lǐng)域的私有部門投資發(fā)揮作用。Europeneedsmechanismsforcarryingoutself-financinginfrastructureprojectsoutsideexistingbudgetcaps.ThismaybepossiblethroughtheexpansionoftheEuropeanInvestmentBankormoreuseofcapitalbudgetconceptsinimplementingfiscalreviews.歐洲則需要建立相關(guān)機(jī)制，在現(xiàn)存預(yù)算上限之外，開展自籌資金的基建項(xiàng)目。要實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)，可以擴(kuò)大歐洲投資銀行(EuropeanInvestmentBank)的規(guī)模，或在財(cái)政審核的過程中更多運(yùn)用資本預(yù)算的概念。Emergingmarketsneedtomakesurethat