建設(shè)氣候適應(yīng)性強、低碳、就業(yè)豐富的非洲-波士頓咨詢集團

BostonConsultingGroup1RichAfricaByPatrickDupoux,LucasChaumontet,PiaCarona,StefanoNiavas,ToluOyekan,YounèsZrikem,KeshMudaly,andFionaTokpleClimatechangeposesasigni?cantthreattothecontinent.Butasglobaldecarbonizatione?ortsintensify,Africacouldemergeasagreenpowerhouse.continentsthathavelargehumanpopulationsAfricahascontributedtheleasttoclimatechangeInitdroveonly4%ofglobalCO2emissions,andaboutthree-quartersofthattotalcamefromjust?vecountries—SouthAfrica BostonConsultingGroup2term,thecontinent’scontributionisevensmaller.Between1751and2017AfricasionsNeverthelessitislikelytobedisproportionatelyimpactedbyawarmingplanet:today,thecontinentorofthecountriesthataremostvulnerabletoclimatechangeththesignicantimpactofclimatechangeinAfricaandthelimitedcapacityofAfricancountries—manyofwhichareamongthepoorestintheworld—toadapt.Withoutrapidandboldaction,climatechangecoulderasetwodecadesofeconomicprogress,lockthecontinentintoevenhigherlevelsofpoverty,andeventuallygeneratemillionsofclimaterefugees.Thosedireoutcomes,however,arenotinevitable.Africancountrieshaveachancenotonlytocreateresiliencefortheireconomiesandsocieties,butalsotoadvanceethreeactionsmassivefundstobuildclimateresilience.Collaborationwithand?nancialsupportfromtheinternationalcommunitywillbecriticaltoobtainingtheleveragingnewtechnologiesandbusinessmodels,Africancountriescanchartimizedtothelocalcontextresourcesandlocalcapabilitiestodrivethecreationoflocalizedgreenmanufacturinghubs.DoingsocancreatemillionsofjobsandspearheadAfrica’sindustrialdevelopment.Thesuccessorfailureofthesee?ortswillhingelargelyontheabilityofAfricanleadersandoftheglobalcommunitytoworkcollaborativelyontopicsof?nance,citybuildingAfricanleadersmustcreatesoundplansfor?2022BostonConsultingGroup3liencethatidentifysolutionstotheircountriesspecicchallengesandopportunities.Atthesametime,developedcountriesinotherpartsavehistoricallycontributedthemosttoglobalemissionsmustndpublicsectorsOnerecentpositivesigninthisregardisanagreementannouncedattheNovembere?ortstodecarbonizeitspowersectorandrealizeajustenergytransition.Committingtosuchcollaborativee?ortsisnotmerelyamatterofclimatejustice,ensuringthatAfricancountriesthatcontributedlittletoclimatechangedonotbyAfricancountriesandtheinternationalcommunitycanadvancesustainabledevelopment,enableAfricatourgeoningnetzeroeconomyanddriveprogressinconfrontingtheclimatethreat—notjustforAfrica,butfortheplanetasawhole.TheClimateChallengeinAfricaAfricascontributiontoglobalgreenhousegasemissionshasbeenandremainsnegligibleEmissionspercapitainsubSaharanAfricaareamongthelowestintheworldatmegatonofCO2percapitain2018.Thecorrespondingemissionsroughlyand4megatonsofCO2percapita,respectively,in2018.2Nevertheless,climatechangewillhaveanoutsizeimpactonAfricancountries.(SeeExhibit1.)?2022BostonConsultingGroup4TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangestatesthattherateofhuman-inducedsurfacetemperatureincreaseontheAfricancontinenthasbeenandwillcontinuetobemorerapidthantheglobalaverage.Extremeweatherevents,includingheavyrainandheatwaves,willincreaseinfrequencyandintensitythecontinentisprojectedtoexperiencedrierconditionsoverall.SealevelrisewillthreatenAfrica'scoastallines,includingmegaoonThelocalimpactofclimatechangeincertainpartsofAfricaislikelytohavetinentskeyeconomicsectorstodayparticularlyeatherandarevulnerabletochangesweatherpatternsandlocalclimatesConsequentlyrisingglobaltemperaturesepopulationdisplacementthreatenhumannwaterresourcesAtthesametimeAfricahascapitalandendemicpovertyallofwhichseverelylimittheabilityofcountriesintheregiontoadapt.ThetychallengeisparticularlydauntingofthecountriesontheAfricancontinentfallintothecategoryofleastdevelopedcountries,meaningthattheyBostonConsultingGroup5avelowincomesfaceseverestructuralimpedimentstosustainabledevelopmentandareparticularlyvulnerabletoeconomicandenvironmentalshocks.Andrecentprogressmadeonthecontinent,butalsotowidenthedevelopmentgapbetweenAfricaandtherestoftheworld.Thefalloutfromsuchacascadeofevents,however,wouldbeglobal,aspoliticalinstabilityandcon?ictcouldincrease,triggeringasurgeinthenumberofAfricanpoliticalandclimate5Africancountrieswhoseeconomiesrelyonexportingfossilfuelsorcarbon-ensiveproductswillsueranadditionalhitastheglobaleconomydecarbonizesseexportsareincreasinglyatriskasleadingglobalmarketsimplementtaxwhichisigeriaAngolaandAlgeriaandcarbonFailingtoadapttoboththephysicalriskofclimatechangeandemergingtradeThreeClimateActionPrioritiesThemagnitudeoftheclimatechangechallengefacingAfricarequirescountriestonomicdevelopmentandaccelerateionoflocalgreenmanufacturingcapabilitiesAsleadersinsideandadevelopstrategiesineachareatheymustbasetheireortsonthecoreprincipleofensuringajusttransitionthatcontributestotheimprovedwell-beingofcitizensandtotheeradicationofpovertyandinequality.(See“TheNeedBostonConsultingGroup6THETHENEEDFORJUSTTRANSITIONSdominatedpowersystemmustgobeyondsimplycreatingjobs.ItmusteconomyForexamplewhatroleshouldsocialwelfareplayforpeoplewhocannotbereskilledorredeployed?Andhowshouldthegovernmenttrytomanagegeographicandculturaldislocationasthecoaleconomyrampsdowninthenortheasternpartofthecountryandasnewgreenjobsinthesouthwesternpartassessanumberofimportantopportunitiesandchallenges,aswellastheedtocapturethoseopportunitiesiftheyaretoensureajusttransitionofSouthAfrica’spowerandothersectorstonetzero.(Seetheneedtoactcollaborativelyanddecisivelytoensurenooneislebehind.AholisticsolutionencompassingacomprehensivesetofenablerswillbecriticalnotjustforSouthAfricabutforAfricaasawholetoensurethatnooneislebehindandthattheeconomyofthefutureisinclusiveandstandTheyshouldgivespecialattentiontoprotectingtheirmostvulnerablecommunities,includingthosemostlikelytobecomeclimaterefugeesoremepovertytrapsAscountriesfocusonadaptationmeasurestheywillalsoneedtotailortheiractionstotheregionalcontext.ThecostofadaptationmeasuresinAfricawillbeimmense.EveninascenarioinonsEnvironmentProgramestimatesthatthecontinents?2022BostonConsultingGroup7Africa,annualadaptationcostsasashareofGDPmayamounttoanaverageaboutangprojectedguresinotherregionsoftheworldwhichrangesarealreadyinvestinginadaptationprojectsandactivitiesmstorestoredegradedlandstAfricadeploymentofwaterdesalinationprojectsacrossthecontinentandinitiativessuchastheInitiativefortheAdaptationofAfricanAgriculturewhichisledbyMoroccoandsupportedbyalargecoalitionofregionallsupportforadaptationactionintheregion(See“ThePowerofAdvancedAnalyticsinAdaptation.”)THETHEPOWEROFADVANCEDANALYTICSINADAPTATIONtdetectassessandcommunicateriskscreasethephysicalandeconomicresilienceofcountriesandcommunities.Kenyasuccessiveyearsofpoorrainhaveletheregioninseveredrought,millionsofpeopleDroughtpredictiontoolshavebeendevelopedthatdrawonadvancedanalyticstoimproveresilienceinthefaceofsuchevents.ThesetoolshavethepotentialtoserveasearlyfdroughtsorBostonConsultingGroup8arleveltheimpactofclimatechangelocallyonspeci?csectors,regions,orsandtheycansupportdecisionmakingbytestingthecandmicroeconomiceectivenessofpotentialmeasurescymakersseekingtoanticipateandrespondtodroughts,aswellastodonorswishingtomaximizethepositiveimpactoftheirfunding.Creatingande?ectivelyleveragingdataanalyticstoolswillbecriticaltoactioninAfrica.IntheEastAfricanCommunity(EAC)—consistingofthenationsulturalsectorsbybuildingclimatelsteringvaluecreationbyshiingtothenThesestepscanyieldmeaningfulnvironmentalsocialandeconomicbenetsForexampleclimatesmartACcouldlowergreenhousegasemissionsbyuptocouldbolsterannualGDPfortheEACregionbyasmuchasbillion.heEACismakingadaptationAfricanglobal?nanceisinadequate.AlthoughAfricaistheworld’ssecond-largestandsecond-most-populouscontinent,only10%oftheworld’sclimatefundsgototheBostonConsultingGroup9continent,andgloballylessthan15%ofallclimatefundsgotoadaptationrojectsInadditiondevelopednationshavesofarfallenshortoffulllingtheirpledgetoprovide$100billioninannualclimate?nancingtodevelopingnations—pportcriticaladaptationactionniesaretoincreasetheiradaptivecapacitytodealwithclimatechangetheymustadvancetheiroverallsocioeconomicdevelopment—andaccesstocleancessto10ClimatechangeandthepressuretoclosethedevelopmentgaphaveputAfricandevelopmentpathsimilartotheonethattoday'sindustrializedcountriesdidinthepastrootedinfossilfuelsandoutdatedtechnologies.Butthis"grow?rst,cleanupoachwouldleadAfricancountriestocreatehighlycarbonintensiveeconomiesandlockthecontinentintoincreasinglyuncompetitivesocioeconomicandtechnicalsystemsUltimatelysuchabetwouldlimitAfricasgrowthpotentialmakeita“marketoflastresort”thatreliedonoutdatedtechnologies,andfurtherwidenthedevelopmentgapbetweenitandtherestoftheworld.AfricancountriesshouldavoidrepeatingtheunsustainabledevelopmentchoicesofldleveragethecontinentsvastrenewablegiesrgygreenhydrogengreensyntheticfuelsadvanceddigitizationSucheortsnotonlywouldhelpaddresstheustmicdevelopmentityrenewableenergynniestcountriesintheworldarein?2022BostonConsultingGroup10Africa.Infact,thecontinentcouldbecomethe?rsttopowerindustrializationintermittentnatureofrenewablescanbemanagedbydeployinghydropoweriblenaturalgaswhichisavailableinanumberofAfricancountriesandcanserveasatransitionfuelinthemiddleterm),and,inthelongerdbatterytechnologyMoroccohasalreadysitiontoapredominatelyrenewableenergypowersystemThecountryaimstomeet52%ofitspowerdemandviahydropower,wind,andEuropeinthelongerterm.TograspthepotentialofrenewableenergyinAfricatohelpsolvethecontinent’senergygapanddrivedecarbonization,considerthesituationsoftheEAC,Nigeria,dSouthAfricaearoundmillionpeoplehavenoaccesstoelectricitydistributedrenewableenergyisthemostcostcompetitiveoption.11AndBostonConsultingGroup11distributedenergyenabledbyrenewableenergytechnology,digitization,andnsupportelectricationinbothruralandurbanareastheEACtoproducearoundoftheprojectedwholiveinremoteareasbymillionpeopleandslashCOemissionsbymilliontons).InNigeriameanwhiledistributedsolarphotovoltaicPVenergyisthemostcostcompetitiveoptiontomeettheelectricitysupplygapinurbanareas,suchastheplyingonlytoofdemandSolarPVdieselhybridsystems,couldgenerateup10to15TWhayearinLagos.Oneofthemostcarbon-intensiveeconomiesintheworld,andthelargestemitteronthecontinentSouthAfricaisresponsibleformorethan30%ofAfrica'stime,however,SouthAfricahasamongthebestwindandsolarresourcesintheinatedpowersystembackedbynaturalgasasacostcompetitivepowerorthecountryOfcourse,transitioningSouthAfrica’spowersystemtonetzerowillnotcomeethedeploymentofroughlygigawattsofwindandsolarnationalsupportforsuchaneortisgrowingAtCOPthegovernmentsofAfricaFranceGermanytheUKtheUSandtheEuropeanUnionannouncedanagreementtoprovide$8.5billionoverthenextthreeto?veyearstohelpsupportSouthAfrica’stransition.Ifwellmanagedandwellcoordinated,themillionnetjobyearsassumingthatthecountrycaneectivelyreskillandredeploy?2022BostonConsultingGroup12theworkforce,withadditionaljobpotentialifthecountrycanlocalizeelementsoftherenewableenergyvaluechain.Africancountrieswillbene?tthoselivingonthecontinentandwillbeacriticalfactorinmitigatingclimatechangeglobally.thelpfuelthedevelopmentofarobustgreenmanufacturingbase.ForexampletheDemocraticRepublicofCongohasthelargestprovenreservesofiontodayAfricancountrieslablerenewableenergytohasgreensteelandothergreenmetalsfuelcellselectricricaTHETHEGREENHYDROGENOPPORTUNITYINAFRICAdctrolysiswillbeanimportantenablerofdecarbonizationacrosssectorstransport,aviation,andshipping.TheInternationalEnergyAgencymportmarketswithimporttargetsofaroundtomegatonsofeenhydrogenproductionwillbethe?2022BostonConsultingGroup13dSaudiArabia,arealreadypositioningthemselvestobecomeleadingsuppliersofHowever,manyAfricancountriesareendowedwithvastrenewableenergyrownandcouldproducegreenhydrogenatgloballyivepricesForexampleSouthAfricacouldgenerategreennsyntheticfuelproductionSouthAfricaiswellpositionedtobecomeamajorproducerofgreenfuels,suchassyntheticaviationfuelande-ammonia,forlocalandglobalmarkets.Thecontinentsuniquenaturalcapitalgivesitanothersigni?cantgreenrestoration,andbiocharproduction.Asaresult,AfricancountriescandevelopnewbusinessesandservicesthataregoodfortheplanetevenastheygeneratetpoolsforthecontinentTheCongoBasinrainforest,forexample,istheworld’smostimportantforestdiversityorcarbonsequestrationGabonwhichtodayreliesheavilyonoilimportsisexploringhowtomonetizethepreservationandrestorationofitsportionofthemegatonsofCOannuallymorethanone-thirdofFrance'sannualemissions.12In2021,Gabonreceivedapaymentof$17million,the?rsttrancheofa$150milliondealwiththeorestdegradationThismakesGabontherstAfricancountrytoreceive?2022BostonConsultingGroup14rgreenpotentialAfricancountriesmustdrivecollaborationonnational,regional,andinternationallevelsandacrosssectors.ticalstartingstodevelopambitiousnationalclimateresilienceplansthatfosterconcreteestablishregionalandinternationalcollaborationandcomponents:materesilience,andgaugepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsonthemostvulnerableeinvestmentsrequiredtoavoidorminimizedetrimentale?ectsoverthecomingyears.steatoryriskandensureproperexecutionandtrackingofetweenpoliciesthatphaseoutfossilfuelsandthosethatencourageinvestmentsinnewgreentechnologies.TheabilityofAfricangovernmentstoonwithauniedvoicewillbecriticaltosparencyandimprovinginvestorcondenceasubstantialshareofinternationalnancinganddrivinggotiationsthroughauniedAfricanvoice.Africancountriesmustalsoaligntheirapproachestoengagingtheinternationalcommunityontopicssuchasgreen?nance,climatefunding,technologytransferandcapacitybuildingTheInitiativefortheAdaptationoflturewhichaimstoattractmorefundstoAfricasagriculturaladaptationprojects,o?ersagoodexampleofhowacoordinatedalliance?2022BostonConsultingGroup15betweenmultipleAfricangovernmentscanelevatekeyissuesontherdinationcanultimatelystrengthenionatkeyforumssuchasCOPandbeyondtenstocausedisastrousdamagetoAfricancountrieseventivelylittletoclimatechangeThispotentialtriskfortherestoftheworldItisessentialforAfricannationsandfortheinternationalcommunity,especiallythedevelopedesponsiblefortheclimatecrisistoworktogethertotionasuresandputtheminplacealongwiththerequiredtechnologicalnancialandpoliticalenablers.Atthesametime,Africancountriesneedtoidentifyandrealizenewgreenindustrializationopportunities—particularlyinconnectionwithdevelopingAfricanmanufacturinghubsforfuturelocalandglobalnet-zeromarkets—todriveioeconomicdevelopmentonthecontinentInthisregardAfricahastheopportunitytoturnvulnerabilityintostrengthandtogrowintoagreenrpowerprovidingarmfoundationforsustainabledevelopmentonthecontinentandbeyond.tdecarbonizedfutureforAfricancountriesiscriticalnotjustforthecontinent’spolitical,economic,andenvironmentalstability,butforthegoodoftheworldasawhole.ItisclearlyintheinterestofgovernmentsaroundtheglobetounlockmassiveinvestmentsinAfricaandtopartnerwithAfricancountriestoensurethattheire?ortsdonotfail.?2022BostonConsultingGroup16AuthorsPatrickDupouxManagingDirectorandSeniorPartner;HeadofAfricaParisLucasChaumontetManagingDirector&PartnerJohannesburgPiaCaronaPartnerNairobiStefanoNiavasManagingDirector&PartnerLagosToluOyekanManagingDirector&PartnerLagosYounèsZrikemPartner&DirectorCasablancaKeshMudalyPrincipalJohannesburgFionaTokpleProjectLeaderJohannesburg?2022BostonConsultingGroup17,1GlobalCarbonAtlasCO2emissionsdata.,2WorldBank,“CO2Emissions(MetricTonsperCapita).”3IPCC6thAssessmentReport.4WorldBank,“TheNumberofPo