國(guó)際市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷課件-國(guó)際貿(mào)易的動(dòng)態(tài)環(huán)境

TheDynamicEnvironmentofInternationalTrade國(guó)際貿(mào)易的動(dòng)態(tài)環(huán)境Topic#5Chapter#2TheTwentiethtotheTwenty–FirstCentury20世紀(jì)到21世紀(jì)ThefirsthalfofTheTwentiethCenturywasmarredbytwomajorglobalconflicts,andTheGreatDepression.20世紀(jì)的前半葉兩次世界大戰(zhàn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條損毀

WorldWar1–1914to1918第一次世界大戰(zhàn)1914-1918TheGreatDepression–1929to1939大蕭條時(shí)期1929-1939WorldWar2–1939to1945第二次世界大戰(zhàn)1939-1945TheMarshallPlan馬歇爾計(jì)劃TheMarshallplan;WasaplanaimedattherebuildingofEuropeandJapanaftertheirdestructionduringtheSecondWorldWar.馬歇爾計(jì)劃:計(jì)劃的目的是重建在二戰(zhàn)中摧毀的歐洲和日本AgencyofInternationalDevelopment;wasanorganizationcreatedafterWW2wheremembercountriescouldinvestfundstohelpfostereconomicdevelopmentinunderdevelopedcountriesinordertocreateastrongerworldeconomy.國(guó)際開發(fā)總署:二戰(zhàn)后成立的組織,為了更強(qiáng)大的全球經(jīng)濟(jì),成員國(guó)可以在不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家投資促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展Thebenefitsflowedbothways,sinceforeverydollardevelopedcountriesinvestedinunderdevelopedcountries,theyreceivedhundredsofdollarsinreturnoninvestedcapitalintheformofmanufacturedgoods,agriculturalgoods,etc.SincetheNorthAmericaneconomiesandinfrastructureshadnotbeenravagedbythewar,theywerethemainbenefactorsofthepostwareconomicresurgence.TheUnitedStatesandCanadabecamerichcountries!!!利益有兩方面,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的每一美元投資都投入到不發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,以工業(yè)品,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品為形式作為投入資本的回報(bào).因?yàn)楸泵绹?guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施沒在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中破壞,他們是戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的主要資助者,美國(guó)和加拿大聚斂財(cái)富GATT關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易總協(xié)定GATT(GeneralAgreementofTariffsandTrade);In1947GATTwasratifiedby23membernations.Theirgoalwastolimittradebarriersandincreaseglobaltradeamongnations.關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易總協(xié)定:1947年23個(gè)國(guó)家批準(zhǔn)了GATT,他們的目標(biāo)是降低貿(mào)易壁壘和增加全球貿(mào)易Duringtheworldwarstradeamongstwarringnationshadallbutstopped,andintheperiodbetweenthewarstherewasanatmosphereofprotectionism.Thisleadtotariffsashighas60%onmanyproductstolimittrade,andisoneofthecausesofTheGreatDepression!Afterthewarsworldleaderssoughtcooperationandtrade!!!戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間,交戰(zhàn)國(guó)的貿(mào)易停止了,貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義盛行,許多產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅高達(dá)60%,這限制了貿(mào)易,這也是導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的原因之一,戰(zhàn)后世界的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者尋求合作和貿(mào)易TradeInvestmentMeasures(TRIMS);Establishedthebasicprinciplethatinvestmentrestrictionscanbemajortradebarriers.貿(mào)易投資措施:建立的投資限制的基本原則可能會(huì)成為主要的貿(mào)易壁壘TheWorldTradeOrganization

世界貿(mào)易組織TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO);Wascreatedin1994asaninstitutiontodealwith,andeliminatetradedisputesamongstthe132membercountries.世貿(mào):1994成立的機(jī)構(gòu)旨在處理和消除132個(gè)成員國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端TheUruguayRound;GATTbecamepartofWTOandthenumberofnationsseekingglobalbarrierfreetradeincreasedto117nations.烏拉圭會(huì)談:關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易總協(xié)定成為世貿(mào)的一部分,更多的國(guó)家尋求全球的自由貿(mào)易,成員國(guó)增至117個(gè)SkirtingtheSpiritofGATTandWTO回避關(guān)貿(mào)協(xié)定和世貿(mào)精神TheWTOhasbeentryingtosethealthandsafetystandardsandworkplacerightsacrossallmembernations.Theyalsotrytoenforcepatentandtrademarkprotection,howevermanydevelopingnationsareslowtocomply.世貿(mào)努力在成員國(guó)中建立安全的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),他們也實(shí)施專利和商標(biāo)保護(hù),然而許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家推行的很慢Thereisalsodifferentlevelsofinstitutionalisedcorruptionandinfluencewithindifferentmembernationsthatcreateproblemsforbusinessesandcountriesinvolvedintrade.不同成員國(guó)的不同程度的制度化的腐敗和影響使商業(yè)和國(guó)家的貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生了問題TheInternationalMonetaryFund國(guó)際貨幣基金組織TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF);WasformedafterWW2tostabiliseforeignexchangeratesandtheestablishmentoffreelyconvertiblecurrenciestofacilitatetheexpansionandbalancedgrowthofinternationaltrade.(181membercountries)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織:二戰(zhàn)后成立,致力于穩(wěn)定貨幣匯率和建立自由兌換貨幣促進(jìn)擴(kuò)張,平衡國(guó)際貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)（181個(gè)成員國(guó)）TheWorldBank世界銀行TheWorldBank;Isaninstitutionthathasasit`sgoalthereductionofpovertyandtheimprovementoflivingstandardsbypromotingsustainablegrowthandinvestmentinpeople.世界銀行:這一機(jī)構(gòu)的目標(biāo)在于減少貧困,提高生活質(zhì)量,促進(jìn)可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和投資TherearefiveinstitutionswithinTheWorldBankprovidingserviceforpooranddevelopingcountries.世界銀行中有五個(gè)體系為貧窮和發(fā)展中國(guó)家提供服務(wù)ServicesProvidedbyTheWorldBank世界銀行提供的服務(wù)1.Lendingmoneytotheeconomiesofdevelopingcountriestofinancedevelopmentprojectsineducation,health,andinfrastructure.為發(fā)展中國(guó)家提供貸款支持教育,醫(yī)療,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)2.Providingassistancetogovernmentsfordevelopmentalprojectstothepoorestdevelopingcountries,(percapitaincomeof$925).為最貧窮國(guó)家的政府的發(fā)展項(xiàng)目提供援助(平均每人每年925美元)3.lendingdirectlytotheprivatesectortohelpstrengthenprivatebusinesssectorindevelopingeconomies.在發(fā)展中國(guó)家直接對(duì)私營(yíng)部門投資增強(qiáng)私營(yíng)企業(yè)4.Providinginvestorswithinvestmentguaranteesagainstnoncommercialriskfactors.為投資者提供投資保證防止商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)5.increaseinvestmentflowbyprovidingconciliationandarbitrationservicestosortdisputesbetweengovernmentsandinvestors.通過提供調(diào)解和仲裁政府與投資者之間的爭(zhēng)端的服務(wù)來增加投資ProtestsAgainstGlobalInstitutions反對(duì)全球化體系A(chǔ)nti-Globalists;Theyrebelagainsttheimplicationsofitsexistenceandvehementlychallengetheviewthatitisinevitableandnaturallyoccurring.反對(duì)全球化者:他們對(duì)抗存在的影響，激烈的挑戰(zhàn)不可避免的和必然發(fā)生的觀點(diǎn)Everytimeworldleadersgettogethertodiscusstheworldeconomyandinternationaltradethereareprotests.Somecanbecomeveryviolent!!!每次世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者聚在一起討論世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和國(guó)際貿(mào)易都會(huì)有反對(duì)者,有的會(huì)變得很激烈InternationalTradeTheories國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亞當(dāng)·斯密和絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大衛(wèi)·李嘉圖和相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奧林和具備的生產(chǎn)要素CountrySimilarityTheory國(guó)家相似理論P(yáng)roductLifeCycleTheory產(chǎn)品周期理論AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亞當(dāng)·斯密和絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)Absoluteadvantage;Theadvantagethatexistswhenacountryhasamonopolyonproducingaspecificproductorisabletoproduceitmoreefficientlythanallothercountries.

絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì):一個(gè)國(guó)家在特定商品上壟斷或比其他國(guó)家生產(chǎn)效率更高的優(yōu)勢(shì)DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大衛(wèi)·李嘉圖和相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)ComparativeAdvantage;Thetheorythatstatesthatacountryshouldselltoothercountriesthoseproductsitproducesmosteffectivelyandefficiently,andbuyfromothercountriesthoseproductsitcannotproduceaseffectivelyorefficiently.

相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì):這個(gè)理論表明一個(gè)國(guó)家應(yīng)向其他國(guó)家銷售其能高效生產(chǎn)的商品,購(gòu)買其不能高效生產(chǎn)的商品Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奧林和具備的生產(chǎn)要素FollowalongthelineofComparativeAdvantage,HeckscherandOhlinsuggestthatsomecountrieshavenaturaladvantages,knownasfactors.依照相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)理論,赫克舍·奧林提出國(guó)家應(yīng)該有自然優(yōu)勢(shì)如各種要素Thus;AcountrywillhaveaComparativeAdvantageinproductsthatrequireresourcesthatareabundantinthatcountry.因此,一個(gè)國(guó)家要在充足的自然資源生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品上有相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)CountrySimilarityTheory國(guó)家相似理論Economist,SteffenLinder,in1960,suggestedthattradebetweencountriesformanufacturedgoodsdependedonthesimilaritiesinconsumerpreferences,productionconditions,andeconomicdevelopmentstage.Economicandsocialsimilarityincreasesleveloftradebetweencountries.經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬琳達(dá)1960年提出國(guó)家間商品的交換依靠相似的消費(fèi)者選擇,生產(chǎn)環(huán)境,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的相似能提升國(guó)家間貿(mào)易的階段ProductLifeCycleTheory產(chǎn)品周期理論RaymondVernon,IsverysimilartoTheProductLifeCycleTheory,butincludesthefactorsofglobalcompetitionandtrade.HesaysthatwithinthePLCtherearethreestagesofinternationalproductgrowth.Theyare;雷蒙德·弗農(nóng)提出與產(chǎn)品周期理論相似的理論,但包括全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和貿(mào)易的因素,他說在產(chǎn)品周期理論內(nèi)國(guó)際產(chǎn)品增長(zhǎng)有三個(gè)階段1.NewProductStage;Entrepreneurslaunchanewproductintheirhomemarket,wheretheyunderstandtheenvironment.新產(chǎn)品階段:企業(yè)家在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)推行新產(chǎn)品,他們了解市場(chǎng)環(huán)境2.MatureProductStage;Demandfortheproductexpandsfasterthensupplyascustomersaltertheirchoicesandadoptnewstyling.Asdemandmovesoffshoresodoesproduction!成熟產(chǎn)品階段:對(duì)產(chǎn)品的需求迅速增長(zhǎng),然后供給滿足消費(fèi)者的不同選擇和采用新款式,產(chǎn)品的需求和生產(chǎn)到達(dá)國(guó)外3.StandardizedProductStage;Demandfortheproductstabilizes.Theinnovativefeaturesoftheproductnolongerexist.Productionmovestothelowestcostlocationsasdemanddrops.標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化產(chǎn)品階段:產(chǎn)品的需求穩(wěn)定,產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的特點(diǎn)不再存在,隨著需求下降,生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到低成本地區(qū)NewProductStageStandardizedProductStageMatureProductStageDomesticMarketInternationalMarketTradeandInvestmentPatterns

貿(mào)易和投資模式Thelevelofglobaltradeisincreasingandhasbeenforanumberofyears.Ascountriescontinuetoworktogetheronglobalissuessuchaspopulation,resourcelimitations,globalwarming,andpoverty,cooperationandtradeareevermoreimportant.Tradecreateshealthyeconomiesforallthoseinvolved,andaspoorcountriesdevelop,anddevelopingcountriesbecomerich,theglobalmarketplacewillcontinuetogrow.全球貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)已持續(xù)了很多年,隨著全球的國(guó)家一起解決人口增長(zhǎng),資源限制,全球變暖和貧困的問題,合作和貿(mào)易更加重要,貿(mào)易使參與者產(chǎn)生健康的經(jīng)濟(jì),隨著貧窮的國(guó)家發(fā)展,發(fā)展中國(guó)家變得富有,全球市場(chǎng)會(huì)繼續(xù)發(fā)展BRIC;DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!金磚四國(guó):受注視的發(fā)展中國(guó)家Brazil;200million巴西2億人口Russia;200million俄羅斯2億人口India;1.2billionpeople印度12億人口China;1.3billionpeople中國(guó)13億人口DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!受注視的發(fā)展中國(guó)家BalanceofPayments收支平衡BalanceofPayments;Thesystemofaccountsthatrecordsanation’sinternationalfinancialtransactions.收支平衡:記錄一個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)際金融處理的賬目系統(tǒng)CurrentAccount;Arecordofallmerchandiseexports,imports,andservicesplusunilateraltransfersoffunds.現(xiàn)在的賬目:對(duì)所有商品的進(jìn)出口,服務(wù)和單邊資金轉(zhuǎn)移的記錄CapitalAccount;Arecordofdirectinvestment,portfolioinvestment,andshorttermcapitalmovementstoandfromcountries.資本賬目:對(duì)直接投資,證券投資組合和國(guó)家短期投資的進(jìn)出的記錄ReserveAccount;Arecordofimportsandexportsofgold,increasesordecreasesinforeignexchange,andincreasesordecreasesinliabilitiestoforeigncentralbanks.儲(chǔ)備金賬目:對(duì)黃金的進(jìn)出口,外匯的增減,外國(guó)中央銀行負(fù)債的增減的記錄TradeBalance;Isareflectionofthedifferencebetweentotalexportsandtotalimports.貿(mào)易平衡:是總出口和總進(jìn)口差異的反映CurrentAccountBalance;Isamorecompletepictureofthefinancialflowsintoandfromalocaleconomy.現(xiàn)在賬目平衡:是一個(gè)更完整的一個(gè)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)財(cái)政的流量的進(jìn)出的反映TradeSurplus;Afavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’sexportsexceedsthatofitsimports.貿(mào)易順差:有利的貿(mào)易平衡,一國(guó)出口的貿(mào)易額超過進(jìn)口TradeDeficit;Anunfavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’simportsexceedsthatofitsexports.貿(mào)易逆差:不利的貿(mào)易平衡,一國(guó)進(jìn)口的貿(mào)易額超過出口BalanceofPaymentsandForeignExchange收支平衡和外匯ExchangeRate;Referstothevalueofacurrencyinrelationtothevaluesofothercurrencies.匯率:本國(guó)貨幣價(jià)值與其他貨幣價(jià)值的關(guān)系PurchasingPowerParity(PPP);Thevalueofacountriescurrencyandthecostoflivinginthatcountry,comparedtothevalueofanothercurrencyinanothercountryandthecostoflivinginthatcountry.購(gòu)買力同等:一國(guó)貨幣的價(jià)值與生活成本與另一國(guó)相比較FactorsAffectingTheExchangeRate影響匯率的因素FloatingExchangeRate;Thevalueofcurrencyissetbythelawsofsupplyanddemandforcurrencyontheinternationalexchangemarkets.變動(dòng)的匯率在國(guó)際交換市場(chǎng)上貨幣的價(jià)值由對(duì)貨幣的需求決定Currencyvalueschangedailyandareeffectedbymanyfactorssuchasperceivedeconomichealthoracountry’seconomyincomparisontothatofothercountries,andinternationalevents.貨幣價(jià)值每日一變,受經(jīng)濟(jì)安全感知或本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與它國(guó)比較和國(guó)際事件因素的影響Protectionism貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義Protectionism;Theuseofgovernmentregulationstolimittheimportofgoodsandservices.貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義政府條例的使用限制商品和服務(wù)的進(jìn)口

TradeBarriers;Arebarriersputinplacebygovernmentstorestrictorpreventinternationaltrade.貿(mào)易壁壘:政府設(shè)置壁壘限制或阻止國(guó)際貿(mào)易TradeBarriers貿(mào)易壁壘Tariff;Ataximposedonimports.關(guān)稅強(qiáng)加到進(jìn)口上的稅Quota;Isaspecificunitordollarlimitappliedtoaparticulartypeofgood.限額:對(duì)特定商品限制交易量和交易額VoluntaryExportRestrictions;(VER)orOrderlyMarketAgreements;(OMA);areagreementsbetweenimportingandexportingcountriesforarestrictiononthevolumeofexports.自愿出口限制或有序市場(chǎng)協(xié)議:是進(jìn)口和出口國(guó)對(duì)大量出口限制的協(xié)議Boycott;Isanabsoluterestrictionagainstthepurchaseandimportationofcertaingoodsfromothercountries.聯(lián)合抵制:是對(duì)從其它國(guó)家進(jìn)口特定商品的絕對(duì)的限制Embargo;Isarefusaltoselltoaspecificcountry.禁止或限制貿(mào)易:拒絕和特定國(guó)家貿(mào)易MonetaryBarrier;Restrictionsonmoneyexchange.貨幣壁壘:對(duì)貨幣兌換的限制Standard;Standardsonproductsafetyandqualityandbusinessrules.標(biāo)準(zhǔn):產(chǎn)品安全和質(zhì)量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和商業(yè)準(zhǔn)則AntidumpingPenalties;Limitsonimportsbasedonpredatorypricing,topreventdumping.反傾銷處罰:對(duì)掠奪性定價(jià)商品的限制,目的是防止傾銷ProtectionLogicandIllogic

保護(hù)主義的邏輯性和非邏輯性Therearecountlessreasonswhygovernmentstrytorestricttradebytheuseofprotectionistmeasures.Someoftheseargumentsarebasedonthefollowing;有無數(shù)的原因來說明為什么政府要使用貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義者的方法來限制貿(mào)易以下的,內(nèi)容是一部分論證:

1.Protectionofaninfantindustry.對(duì)早期工業(yè)的保護(hù)

2.Protectionofthehomemarket.對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的保護(hù)

3.Theneedtokeepmoneyatho