化工-行業(yè)周報：安全生產(chǎn)督導檢查持續(xù)開展繼續(xù)重點關(guān)注化企核心資產(chǎn)MDI、TDI、純堿、BDO、己內(nèi)酰胺價格上漲

證券研究報告工.853.22工7.17昆股份3.92技0.700.75金禾實業(yè)3.772.572.541.532.902.99斯特3.843.15相關(guān)報告《【興證化工】基礎(chǔ)化工行業(yè)周報——《加快非糧生物基材料創(chuàng)新發(fā)展三年行動方案》印發(fā)，勢(20230110-20230116)》hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03勛iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6投資要點工有限公司烷基化裝置在維修過程中發(fā)生泄漏爆炸著火事故，造成13人報，強調(diào)各地區(qū)、有關(guān)部門和企業(yè)要進一步扎實推進?；钒踩L險治理各項任務(wù)落地落實，立即組織開展化工裝置設(shè)備帶“病”運行專項排查整治。要全面開展安全風險排查，壓實安全生產(chǎn)責任，堅決遏制重特大事格局優(yōu)化，國內(nèi)技術(shù)領(lǐng)先、安環(huán)投入及管理優(yōu)異、管理水平先進的化工企業(yè)有望受益。22Q4主動管理型公募基金重倉持股中基礎(chǔ)化工持倉市值占比5.31%(季度0.22pcts，季度同比-0.73pcts)，石油石化持倉市值占比1.20%(季度pctspcts品盈利修復預期較強的背景下，估值已跌至較低水平，以龍頭公司周期底部業(yè)持續(xù)關(guān)銀光12萬噸裝置重啟推遲；上海科思創(chuàng)由于設(shè)備方面的原因降負運行；重啟，TDI供應緊張。需求方面，下游剛需采購為主。當前國內(nèi)外多套海巴中國化工品價格指數(shù)(CCPI)：本周CCPI較上周下跌0.3%，較上月同大的產(chǎn)品：氣化焦(山西)，+26%；丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)，現(xiàn)貨，-9%；聚醚胺(D230)，-5%；正丁醇(華東)，-3%；二氯甲烷(華?風險提示：化工產(chǎn)品需求不達預期的風險，國際油價大幅下跌的風請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-2-疫情緩解，品價格與價差的修復。建議關(guān)注桐昆股份、新鳳鳴。農(nóng)藥/化肥：國內(nèi)“二十大”報告再度重申糧食安全的重要性，國內(nèi)農(nóng)求，從農(nóng)化產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈看，磷肥原材料磷礦石價格尚處高位，磷礦-磷肥一蟒、興發(fā)集團。農(nóng)藥方面，安環(huán)收緊下農(nóng)藥行業(yè)集中度逐漸提高，頭部企業(yè)新一輪產(chǎn)能投放在即，我們建議關(guān)注農(nóng)藥行業(yè)內(nèi)具備領(lǐng)先工程化技球化渠道的制劑企業(yè)。著全球經(jīng)濟刺激退潮，原料需求邊際回落，其價格有望持續(xù)降低。海運端，2022年以來，海運供需錯配緩解，全球海運費出現(xiàn)明顯回落，未利水平有望迎來持續(xù)改善，國內(nèi)頭部企業(yè)產(chǎn)能擴張迅速，搶占全球市場份額，有望迎來行業(yè)修復與自身成長的共振，投資布局價值凸顯。重點段執(zhí)行，沸石、蜂窩陶瓷等相關(guān)產(chǎn)品有望持續(xù)放量。關(guān)注動力電池電解液龍頭天賜材料、新宙邦，正極材料龍頭當升科技，光伏膠膜全球龍頭化工新材料原創(chuàng)技術(shù)平臺昊華科技，國內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的半導體光刻膠龍頭彤程新材，貫通芯片制造、封裝的電子材料平臺型公司雅克科技，催化材料領(lǐng)先企業(yè)國瓷材料、萬潤股份，風電葉片固化劑細分領(lǐng)域龍頭阿科力、濮陽惠成。化學(福建)新裝置低負荷運行，浙江請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-3-某工廠負荷尚未提升，其他工廠開工較為穩(wěn)定。海外科思創(chuàng)德國的MDI裝置由于不可抗力原因短期內(nèi)無法重啟，其他裝置均保持正常運行。因物流輸運受阻，部分工廠對外貨源釋放縮量，場內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨流通緊俏。需求拿貨，采購積極性較為樂觀。本周純堿(輕質(zhì),華東)和純堿(重質(zhì),華東)價廠訂單較好且開工負荷有所提升，下游按需采購跟進。成本方面，純苯價格上漲，對己內(nèi)酰胺價格存一定支撐。本周己內(nèi)酰胺(華東)價格周環(huán)O延續(xù)停車，四川天華、萬華化學因天然氣緊張降負荷生產(chǎn)；本周BDO行業(yè)開工率位成交。需求方面，下游維持剛需跟進。本周BDO(華東)價格上漲投資策略年的化工行業(yè)投資應自下而上聚焦于自身存確定性成長的公司/行業(yè)。步強化。聚焦安全邊際與成長性，把握周期下行期化企核心資產(chǎn)的低估請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-4-值機會。重點推薦：萬華化學、華魯恒升、揚農(nóng)化工、恒力石化、榮盛石化?！敝圃觳牧蠂a(chǎn)化率仍較低，存在較大國產(chǎn)替代的長線機遇；同時美國對新能源材料方面，國家相關(guān)政策要求奠定國內(nèi)風電、光伏等新能源需瓶頸、儲能系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟性提升驅(qū)動需求爆發(fā)，風電、光伏、儲能消費化學品、新能源(風電、光伏、儲能)材料。播種面積的穩(wěn)定帶來的農(nóng)化行業(yè)景氣的可持續(xù)，高盈利驅(qū)動農(nóng)藥華峰化學、恒力石化、衛(wèi)星化學、金禾實業(yè)、新和成、國瓷材料、東材科技、昊華科技、榮盛石化、東方盛虹、福斯特、天賜材料、新宙實不力的風險。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-5- 錄9- 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-6- 3、滌綸庫存(天) -32-4、錦綸庫存(天) -32-5、粘膠庫存(天) -32- 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-7- 請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-8- 行業(yè)周報請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-9-表1、重點跟蹤化工產(chǎn)品價格與價差大類產(chǎn)品單單位更新日期本周上周周漲幅上月同期月漲幅上季度同期季度漲幅年初年內(nèi)漲幅指數(shù)中國化工品價格指數(shù)CCPI---2023/01/2748734887-0.3%47981.6%4885-0.2%47821.9%人民幣對美元匯率(中間價)2023/01/276.77026.77020.0%6.9646-2.8%7.2555-6.7%6.8912人民幣對歐元匯率(中間價)---2023/01/277.33617.33610.0%7.42297.09553.4%7.2535美元指數(shù)2023/01/27101.92102.00103.49110.78-8.0%103.91S&P500--美元/盎司2023/01/274070.563972.612.5%3839.506.0%3770.558.0%3895.084.5%黃金現(xiàn)貨價2023/01/271932.451924.900.4%1813.756.5%1674.4015.4%1852.204.3%CRB商品價格指數(shù)---2023/01/27554.33554.330.0%554.63549.280.9%554.330.0%貨代運價指數(shù)CFFI:中國-歐洲2023/01/27324332430.0%32430.0%4223-23.2%32430.0%貨代運價指數(shù)CFFI:中國-北美--2023/01/27410141010.0%41010.0%471441010.0%WTI期貨(主連合約)美元/桶2023/01/2781.0180.330.8%78.403.3%92.6173.6710.0%Brent期貨(主連合約)美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/2786.1386.160.0%82.264.7%98.5778.699.5%WTI期貨(次月合約)2023/01/2781.2880.610.8%78.503.5%87.18-6.8%73.9210.0%Brent期貨(次月合約)美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/2787.2886.3183.464.6%93.07-6.2%78.8210.7%WTI期貨(第12月合約)2023/01/2777.2077.63-0.6%75.132.8%78.7072.616.3%Brent期貨(第12月合約)美元美元/桶2023/01/2779.1079.100.0%81.89-3.4%88.1079.100.0%WTI現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/01/2778.3978.390.0%78.40.0%88.1776.931.9%Brent現(xiàn)貨美元美元/桶2023/01/2783.0283.020.0%83.060.0%97.0181.222.2%原油Dubai現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/01/2778.1778.170.0%78.0691.3476.512.2%Cinta現(xiàn)貨美元美元/桶口2023/01/2777.2777.270.0%79.03-2.2%94.5176.471.0%美國原油鉆井數(shù)2023/01/27609613-0.7%621613-0.7%618美國商業(yè)原油庫存千千桶美元/桶2023/01/274485484396072.0%4189524368302.7%4206466.6%Brent-WTI期貨主連合約價差2023/01/275.125.833.8632.6%5.965.022.0%WTI主連合約-次月合約美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/27-0.27-0.28--0.1-5.43105.0%-0.25-Brent主連合約-次月合約2023/01/27-0.15--5.50120.9%-0.13-WTI主連合約-第12月合約美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/273.812.7%3.2716.5%13.91-72.6%1.06259.4%Brent主連合約-第12月合約2023/01/277.037.06-0.4%0.371799.5%10.48-32.9%-0.41-三地原油簡單10天平移均價美元美元/桶2023/01/2779.4979.010.6%79.76-0.3%92.6779.210.3%中國92#汽油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)元/噸2023/01/27924992490.0%92010.5%10197-9.3%9466-2.3%中國0#柴油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)元元/噸2023/01/27770077000.0%76550.6%85557895-2.5%美國87#汽油美分/加侖2023/01/272432430.0%2401.2%2752430.0%美國柴油(紐約)美分美分/加侖2023/01/273163160.0%331-4.6%472-33.0%3160.0%煉油歐洲ARA柴油(CIF)美元/噸2023/01/278888880.0%947-6.3%10788880.0%亞洲柴油(新加坡)美元美元/桶2023/01/2713130.0%14-0.8%25-9.8%130.0%92#汽油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/01/2703994.2%9015.0%958.3%8619.6%含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元美元/桶2023/01/2720172.9%145.5%30-7.7%0711.6%航空煤油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/01/2722183.9%174.9%211.6%0912.8%行業(yè)周報請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-10-新加坡石腦油新加坡石腦油FOB美元/桶日本石腦油CFR日本石腦油CFR美分元/噸元/噸丙丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)美元/噸丁烷(華東冷凍CFR丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)元元/噸正丁烷(山東)基礎(chǔ)油(150SN基礎(chǔ)油(150SN,東北)120#溶劑油(華東120#溶劑油(華東)元/噸混調(diào)高硫混調(diào)高硫180CST(華東)558#半煉石蠟(華南)元/噸重交瀝青(華南)元/重交瀝青(華南)改性瀝青(華南改性瀝青(華南)元/噸國內(nèi)主國內(nèi)主營汽油出廠價-原油價差美元/噸國內(nèi)主營柴油出廠價-原油價國內(nèi)主營柴油出廠價-原油價差國內(nèi)主營成品油價-原油價差美元/噸美元/噸國國際汽油市場價-原油價差國際柴油市場價-原油價差美元/噸美元/噸國際成品油市國際成品油市場價-WTI原油價差美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸國際成品油市場價-Brent原油價差新加坡新加坡FOB汽油價-Brent原油價差新加坡FOB柴油價-Brent原油價差美元/噸美元/噸新新加坡FOB航空煤油價-Brent原油價差美灣WTI321價差美元/噸美元/桶美灣美灣Brent321價差亞洲Minas321價差美元/桶美元/桶中東中東Dubai321價差中國瀝青開工率美元/桶%美美國煉廠開工率%2023/01/2775.2273.712.0%66.1313.7%73.572.2%65.5314.8%2023/01/277126863.8%64510.3%6893.3%63012.9%22023/01/272023/01/2777776030777757300.0%717155309.2%8856100777756300.0%5.2%9.0%22023/01/272023/01/2787787787775275276716.6%6262263741.0%6868768727.7%6161262743.3%14.3%37.7%27.7%39.9%2023/01/27566152986.9%510310.9%55202.6%489415.7%2023/01/27920092000.0%92000.0%940092000.0%22023/01/272023/01/277740058407720057902.8%7720055602.8%81081006520-8.6%7725056300.9%5.0%3.7%22023/01/272023/01/2785085004155850850041050.0%850850039050.0%850850046550.0%850850039550.0%1.2%6.4%2023/01/27527552251.0%50255.0%5700-7.5%50753.9%2023/01/27206.50206.28205.940.3%166.0324.4%273.81-24.6%22023/01/272023/01/27112.17112.17102.91111.95111.95102.790.2%114.60114.60102.69667.2381.9966.8%178.45178.45137.921%0.2%25.5%-25.4%22023/01/272023/01/27178.57178.57299.36178.34178.34299.13198.03198.03374.47-9.8%193.01193.01671.78-7.5%234.37234.37355.16-23.8%1%-55.4%22023/01/272023/01/27170.99170.99151.02173.64173.64150.91192.34192.34177.28290.24290.24266.991%199.62199.62180.04-43.4%22023/01/272023/01/27186.40186.40208.46152.66152.66184.36106.57106.57193.3174.9%29.529.55186.83530.9%105.81105.81175.4876.2%7.8%11.6%18.8%2023/01/27284.65249.46269.825.5%176.7561.0%235.032023/01/2732.7632.760.0%30.5839.7630.582023/01/2728.0728.070.0%25.948.2%31.00-9.5%25.948.2%2023/01/2720.4620.460.0%15.8329.2%6.86198.4%15.8329.2%22023/01/272023/01/271919.0328.771919.0332.810.0%1818.5140.292.8%1111.7455.3762.2%1919.0338.760.0%-28.6%-48.0%-25.8%2023/01/2786.1085.300.9%92.00-6.4%90.60-5.0%79.608.2%天然氣美國HenryHub期貨(主連合約)美元/MMBtu英國NBP現(xiàn)貨(遠期合約)便便士/Therm美國HenryHub現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu美國N.Y.Hub現(xiàn)貨美元美元/MMBtu美元/MMBtuGPL現(xiàn)貨美元美元/MMBtuTTF現(xiàn)貨歐元/兆瓦時TTF期貨(次月合約)歐元歐元/兆瓦時美元/MMBtu中國中國LNG現(xiàn)貨(華北)元/噸美美國天然氣庫存十億立方英尺2023/01/272.873.224.561%5.98-52.0%3.74-23.3%22023/01/272023/01/27423.478423.4780.0%723.74204.45318.3%423.4780.0%0.0%-7.0%-21.9%0.0%22023/01/272023/01/272.582.58617.952.582.58617.950.0%31.831.820.39-91.9%1.1.6913.1753.0%2.582.58617.950.0%0.0%36.3%0.0%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