宏觀經(jīng)濟管理學及財務知識分析范文（英文版）課件

CHAPTER1IntroductiontoMacroeconomics1Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CHAPTER1IntroductiontoMacroQuestionsHowmuchricherarewethanourparents?Howmuchricherwillourchildrenbethanourgrandparentswere?Willchangingjobsbeeasyorhardinfiveyears?Howmanyofuswillhavejobsinfiveyears?2Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsHowmuchricherarewQuestionsWillthebusinessesweworkforvanishasdemandfortheproductstheymakedriesup?Willinflationmakeuspoorbydestroyingoursavingsorrichbyeliminatingourdebts?3Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsWillthebusinesseswMacroeconomics...isthesubdisciplineofeconomicsthattriestoanswerthesesixquestionsisthebranchofeconomicsrelatedtotheeconomyasawhole4Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Macroeconomics...isthesubdisMacroeconomists...trytofigureoutwhyoveralleconomicactivityrisesandfallstrytounderstandwhatdeterminesthelevelandrateofchangeofthepricelevelstudyothervariablesthatplayamajorroleindeterminingtheoveralllevelsofproduction,income,employment,andprices5Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Macroeconomists...trytofigurWhyMacroeconomicsMattersCulturalLiteracyabilitytofollowandparticipateinpublicdebatesanddiscussionsunderstandingofnewsreportsonchangesintheeconomy6Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersCultFigure1.1-TheDailyFlowofEconomicNews7Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.1-TheDailyFlowofWhyMacroeconomicsMattersSelf-Interesteffectsofmacroeconomyonourdailylivesunderstandingofchangingopportunitiesastheeconomyfluctuates8Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersSelfWhyMacroeconomicsMattersCivicResponsibilitymoreinformedvotingmoreresponsiblemacroeconomicpolicy9Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersCiviMacroeconomicPolicyGrowthPolicypoliciestoaccelerateordeceleratelong-runeconomicgrowthmostimportantpoliciesforthelong-run10Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicPolicyGrowthPolFigure1.2-Long-RunEconomicGrowth:SwedenandArgentina,1900-200011Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.2-Long-RunEconomicMacroeconomicPolicyStabilizationPolicypoliciestosmoothoutthebusinesscyclebydiminishingthedepthofrecessionsanddepressionsbusinesscyclesarefluctuationsinproductionandemploymentboomsorexpansionsoccurwhenproductiongrowsandunemploymentfallsrecessionsordepressionsoccurwhenproductionfallsandunemploymentrises12Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicPolicyStabilizatFigure1.3-TheAmericanBusinessCycle:FluctuationsinTotalProductionRelativetotheLong-RunGrowthTrend13Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.3-TheAmericanBusiMacroeconomicsversusMicroeconomicsMacroeconomistsexaminetheeconomyasawholefocusonthefeedbackfromonecomponentoftheeconomytoanotherstudythetotallevelofproductionandemploymentbelievethatimbalancesbetweensupplyanddemandmayberesolvedbychangesinquantitiesratherthanprices14Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicsversusMicroecoMacroeconomicsversusMicroeconomicsMicroeconomistsstudythemarketsforsinglecommoditiesandthebehaviorofindividualhouseholdsandfirmsfocusonhowcompetitivemarketsallocateresourcestocreateconsumerandproducersurplusassumethatimbalancesbetweendemandandsupplyareresolvedbychangesinprices15Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicsversusMicroecoEconomicStatisticsandEconomicActivityEconomicactivityisthepatternoftransactionsinwhichthingsofreal,usefulvaluearecreated,transformed,andexchanged.NationalIncomeandProductAccounts(NIPA)reportedbytheU.S.CommerceDepartment’sBureauofEconomicAnalysis16Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.EconomicStatisticsandEconomTable1.2-TheFlowofEconomicData,

2000-200117Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Table1.2-TheFlowofEconomSixKeyEconomicVariablesRealGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)iscorrectedforchangesinthepricelevel(real)includesthereplacementofworn-outandobsoleteequipmentandstructuresaswellasnewinvestment(gross)countseconomicactivitythathappensintheUnitedStates(domestic)representstheproductionoffinalgoodsandservices(product)18Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesRealSixKeyEconomicVariablesRealGrossDomesticProductoftendividedbythenumberofworkersintheeconomymeasureshowwelltheeconomyproducesgoodsandservicesthatpeoplefindusefuldoesnotindicatetherelativedistributionofthenation’seconomicproductisanimperfectmeasureofeconomicwell-being19Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesRealFigure1.4-OfficiallyMeasuredRealGDPperWorkerintheUnitedStates20Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.4-OfficiallyMeasurSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheUnemploymentRatetobeunemployed,apersonmustwanttoworkandbeactivelylookingforajob(buthavenotyetfoundone)thelaborforceconsistsofthosewhoareemployedandthosewhoareunemployedtheunemploymentrateisequaltothenumberofunemployedpeopledividedbythelaborforce21Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.5-TheU.S.UnemploymentRate22Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.5-TheU.S.UnemploySixKeyEconomicVariablesTheUnemploymentRatefrictionalunemploymentoccursbecauseworkersandfirmsspendtimesearchingforthebestmatchcyclicalunemploymentoccursduringrecessionsanddepressionstheunemploymentrateisthebestindicatorofhowwelltheeconomyisdoingrelativetoitsproductivepotential23Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInflationRateisameasureofhowfasttheoverallpricelevelisrisinghyperinflationoccurswhenthepricelevelisrisingbymorethan20%permonth24Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.6-InflationintheUnitedStates25Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.6-InflationintheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInterestRateisimportantbecauseitgovernstheredistributionofpurchasingpoweracrosstimethemanydifferentinterestratesintheeconomyvarybydurationanddegreeofriskoftenmoveupanddowntogether26Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInterestRatenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofmoneydoesnottakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflationrealinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofgoodsandservicesdoestakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflation27Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.7-U.S.RealInterestRates,

1960-199928Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.7-U.S.RealInteresSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheStockMarketisheardaboutmostoften(everyday)isanindexofexpectationsforthefutureahighvaluemeansthatinvestorsexpecteconomicgrowthtoberapid,profitstobehigh,andunemploymenttobelow29Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.8-RealStockIndexPrices30Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.8-RealStockIndexSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRategovernsthetermsonwhichinternationaltradeandinvestmenttakeplacenominalexchangerateistherateatwhichmoniesofdifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanotherrealexchangerateistherateatwhichthegoodsandservicesproducedindifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanother31Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRateifdomesticcurrencyappreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesincreasesforeign-producedgoodsarerelativelycheapfordomesticbuyersimportsarelikelytobehighdomestic-madegoodsarerelativelyexpensiveforforeignersexportsarelikelytobelow32Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRateifdomesticcurrencydepreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesdeclinesdomestic-producedgoodsarerelativelycheapforforeignbuyersexportsarelikelytobehighforeign-madegoodsarerelativelyexpensivefordomesticbuyersimportsarelikelytobelow33Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.9-TheU.S.RealExchangeRate:

TheDollaragainstaCompositeIndex

ofForeignCurrencies34Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.9-TheU.S.RealExcTheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituationTheUnitedStates-2001economicgrowthhasslowedtoaveryweakpaceforecastfor2001isthatrealGDPwillgrowbynomorethan1.8%interestratesloweredthroughFedpolicyduetolags,effectsoflowerinterestrateswillnotbefeltuntilendof2001(attheearliest)inflationcontinuestobelow35Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituTheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituationTheUnitedStates-recentpastfromearly1990sto2000,therewasaneconomicboomunemploymentfellduringthe1990slowestunemploymentrateintwodecades(4%)realwagesincreasedonlyslightlyhelpedtokeepinflationlow36Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituTheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituationEuropeeconomicgrowthincountriesbelongingtotheEuropeanMonetaryUnionslowinglowinflationlessthan2%peryearrelativelyhighunemploymentnear10%37Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituTheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituationJapanslowgrowthraterealGDPgrewonly1.8%in2000realGDPisexpectedtogrowonlyby1.4%in2001deflationisoccurringtheoverallpricelevelfellby0.7%in200038Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.TheCurrent

MacroeconomicSituChapterSummaryMacroeconomicsisthestudyoftheoveralleconomy.Therearethreekeyreasonstostudymacroeconomicstogainculturalliteracytounderstandhoweconomictrendsaffectyoupersonallytoexerciseyourresponsibilityasavoterandcitizen39Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ChapterSummaryMacroeconomicsChapterSummaryThekeyindicatorsinmacroeconomicsarerealGDPtheunemploymentratetheinflationratetheinterestratethelevelofthestockmarkettheexchangerate40Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ChapterSummaryThekeyindicatCHAPTER1IntroductiontoMacroeconomics41Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.CHAPTER1IntroductiontoMacroQuestionsHowmuchricherarewethanourparents?Howmuchricherwillourchildrenbethanourgrandparentswere?Willchangingjobsbeeasyorhardinfiveyears?Howmanyofuswillhavejobsinfiveyears?42Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsHowmuchricherarewQuestionsWillthebusinessesweworkforvanishasdemandfortheproductstheymakedriesup?Willinflationmakeuspoorbydestroyingoursavingsorrichbyeliminatingourdebts?43Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.QuestionsWillthebusinesseswMacroeconomics...isthesubdisciplineofeconomicsthattriestoanswerthesesixquestionsisthebranchofeconomicsrelatedtotheeconomyasawhole44Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Macroeconomics...isthesubdisMacroeconomists...trytofigureoutwhyoveralleconomicactivityrisesandfallstrytounderstandwhatdeterminesthelevelandrateofchangeofthepricelevelstudyothervariablesthatplayamajorroleindeterminingtheoveralllevelsofproduction,income,employment,andprices45Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Macroeconomists...trytofigurWhyMacroeconomicsMattersCulturalLiteracyabilitytofollowandparticipateinpublicdebatesanddiscussionsunderstandingofnewsreportsonchangesintheeconomy46Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersCultFigure1.1-TheDailyFlowofEconomicNews47Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.1-TheDailyFlowofWhyMacroeconomicsMattersSelf-Interesteffectsofmacroeconomyonourdailylivesunderstandingofchangingopportunitiesastheeconomyfluctuates48Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersSelfWhyMacroeconomicsMattersCivicResponsibilitymoreinformedvotingmoreresponsiblemacroeconomicpolicy49Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.WhyMacroeconomicsMattersCiviMacroeconomicPolicyGrowthPolicypoliciestoaccelerateordeceleratelong-runeconomicgrowthmostimportantpoliciesforthelong-run50Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicPolicyGrowthPolFigure1.2-Long-RunEconomicGrowth:SwedenandArgentina,1900-200051Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.2-Long-RunEconomicMacroeconomicPolicyStabilizationPolicypoliciestosmoothoutthebusinesscyclebydiminishingthedepthofrecessionsanddepressionsbusinesscyclesarefluctuationsinproductionandemploymentboomsorexpansionsoccurwhenproductiongrowsandunemploymentfallsrecessionsordepressionsoccurwhenproductionfallsandunemploymentrises52Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicPolicyStabilizatFigure1.3-TheAmericanBusinessCycle:FluctuationsinTotalProductionRelativetotheLong-RunGrowthTrend53Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.3-TheAmericanBusiMacroeconomicsversusMicroeconomicsMacroeconomistsexaminetheeconomyasawholefocusonthefeedbackfromonecomponentoftheeconomytoanotherstudythetotallevelofproductionandemploymentbelievethatimbalancesbetweensupplyanddemandmayberesolvedbychangesinquantitiesratherthanprices54Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicsversusMicroecoMacroeconomicsversusMicroeconomicsMicroeconomistsstudythemarketsforsinglecommoditiesandthebehaviorofindividualhouseholdsandfirmsfocusonhowcompetitivemarketsallocateresourcestocreateconsumerandproducersurplusassumethatimbalancesbetweendemandandsupplyareresolvedbychangesinprices55Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.MacroeconomicsversusMicroecoEconomicStatisticsandEconomicActivityEconomicactivityisthepatternoftransactionsinwhichthingsofreal,usefulvaluearecreated,transformed,andexchanged.NationalIncomeandProductAccounts(NIPA)reportedbytheU.S.CommerceDepartment’sBureauofEconomicAnalysis56Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.EconomicStatisticsandEconomTable1.2-TheFlowofEconomicData,

2000-200157Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Table1.2-TheFlowofEconomSixKeyEconomicVariablesRealGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)iscorrectedforchangesinthepricelevel(real)includesthereplacementofworn-outandobsoleteequipmentandstructuresaswellasnewinvestment(gross)countseconomicactivitythathappensintheUnitedStates(domestic)representstheproductionoffinalgoodsandservices(product)58Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesRealSixKeyEconomicVariablesRealGrossDomesticProductoftendividedbythenumberofworkersintheeconomymeasureshowwelltheeconomyproducesgoodsandservicesthatpeoplefindusefuldoesnotindicatetherelativedistributionofthenation’seconomicproductisanimperfectmeasureofeconomicwell-being59Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesRealFigure1.4-OfficiallyMeasuredRealGDPperWorkerintheUnitedStates60Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.4-OfficiallyMeasurSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheUnemploymentRatetobeunemployed,apersonmustwanttoworkandbeactivelylookingforajob(buthavenotyetfoundone)thelaborforceconsistsofthosewhoareemployedandthosewhoareunemployedtheunemploymentrateisequaltothenumberofunemployedpeopledividedbythelaborforce61Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.5-TheU.S.UnemploymentRate62Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.5-TheU.S.UnemploySixKeyEconomicVariablesTheUnemploymentRatefrictionalunemploymentoccursbecauseworkersandfirmsspendtimesearchingforthebestmatchcyclicalunemploymentoccursduringrecessionsanddepressionstheunemploymentrateisthebestindicatorofhowwelltheeconomyisdoingrelativetoitsproductivepotential63Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInflationRateisameasureofhowfasttheoverallpricelevelisrisinghyperinflationoccurswhenthepricelevelisrisingbymorethan20%permonth64Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.6-InflationintheUnitedStates65Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.6-InflationintheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInterestRateisimportantbecauseitgovernstheredistributionofpurchasingpoweracrosstimethemanydifferentinterestratesintheeconomyvarybydurationanddegreeofriskoftenmoveupanddowntogether66Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheInterestRatenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofmoneydoesnottakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflationrealinterestrateistheinterestrateintermsofgoodsandservicesdoestakeintoaccounttheeffectsofinflation67Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.7-U.S.RealInterestRates,

1960-199968Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.7-U.S.RealInteresSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheStockMarketisheardaboutmostoften(everyday)isanindexofexpectationsforthefutureahighvaluemeansthatinvestorsexpecteconomicgrowthtoberapid,profitstobehigh,andunemploymenttobelow69Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheFigure1.8-RealStockIndexPrices70Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Figure1.8-RealStockIndexSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRategovernsthetermsonwhichinternationaltradeandinvestmenttakeplacenominalexchangerateistherateatwhichmoniesofdifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanotherrealexchangerateistherateatwhichthegoodsandservicesproducedindifferentcountriescanbeexchangedforoneanother71Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRateifdomesticcurrencyappreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesincreasesforeign-producedgoodsarerelativelycheapfordomesticbuyersimportsarelikelytobehighdomestic-madegoodsarerelativelyexpensiveforforeignersexportsarelikelytobelow72Copyright?2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.SixKeyEconomicVariablesTheSixKeyEconomicVariablesTheExchangeRateifdomesticcurrencydepreciatesitsvalueintermsofothercurrenciesdeclinesdomestic-producedgoodsarerelativelycheapforforeignbuyersexportsarelikelytobehighforeign-madegoodsarerela