貿(mào)易與氣候變化-2022年世界貿(mào)易報(bào)告

WORLDTRADEREPORT2022ClimatechangeandinternationaltradeWhatisWhatistheWorldTradeReport?Whatisthe2022Reportabout?FindoutmoreTheWorldTradeReportisanannualpublicationthataimstodeepenunderstandingabouttrendsintrade,tradepolicyissuesandthemultilateraltradingsystem.The2022WorldTradeReportexploresthecomplexinterlinkagesbetweenclimatechangeandinternationaltrade,revealinghowinternationaltradeandtraderulescancontributetoaddressingclimatechange.Website:Generalenquiries:enquiries@Tel:+41(0)227395111Coverimage:Kamarjani,BangladeshTechnicianstravelwiththeirequipmentbyrickshawtoinstallasolarpowersystemataruralhousebuiltonKharzanirChor,anislandontheJamunaRiver.Theseislandscomeandgooveraperiodofaround10to20yearsandthusconnectingthemtothenationalgridisimpractical.However,aprogrammeofruralelectrificationisbeingrolledoutusingsolarpanelsandbatteriesinstalledatindividualhomes.?LaurentWeyl/Argos/PanosPictures.11ONTENTSContentsAcknowledgementsanddisclaimer2Abbreviations4ForewordbytheWTODirector-General6Keymessages8Executivesummary9troductionB.Theroleoftradeinadaptingtoclimatechange5.ConclusionC.Thetradeimplicationsofalow-carboneconomysy5.Conclusionernationaltradeies5.Conclusionnationaltrade5.ConclusionF.Thecontributionoftradeinenvironmentalgoodsandservices5.ConclusionG.ConclusionOpinionpiecesnthyWORLDTRADEREPORT2022AcknowledgementsTheWorldTradeReport2022waspreparedundertheDirectorGeneralResearchandStatisticsDivision,andAikHoeLim,authorsofthereportareMarcBacchettaEddyBekkers,CosimoBeverelli,MateoFerrero,niouthorsareAbsarAliAntoniageUllaKaskArneKlauauClarisseMorganJuanPabloaminIgnotoSocratesKraidoelhosonRobertJ.R.Elliott,DanielC.Esty,MarcoFugazza,dertTehGratitudeisalsoduetothespeakersoftheWorldiacialthanksalsogotoentandAnnek2233LEDGEMENTSANDDISCLAIMERDisclaimerTheWorldTradeReportanditscontentsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheWTOSecretariat,exceptopinionsorviewsofmembersoftheWTOTheWORLDTRADEREPORT2022AbbreviationsAPECBCACBDRCPC2COe2CTEEDBEGEGSEIFEITEEKCEPPEREGESETSETEWEFFEDCFFSRG7G20GATSGDPGGPGHGGPAGTMGVCHSIPCCLDCOECDRCASCMSDGsSIDSSPSSTCSTDFTBTTeCO2TESSDTFATPRM4455ABBREVIATIONSTRIPSTRAINSUNECEkUNFCCCWCOWTO66WORLDTRADEREPORT2022ForewordbytheWTODirector-GeneralChinafromEuropetotheAmericas,wehaveseenReport2022:ClimateChangeandInternationaleowngngonessuchassmall-islanddevelopingstates,least-reansofsolarpanelstradedacrossbordersin2017drbond77FOREWORDBYTHEWTODIRECTOR-GENERALnokeinitiativesandstandardstherearemorethan20ersandrkingwithothermultilateralagenciesetheslpisThisreportisbeinglaunchedatthesametimeasestmentfacilitationkteispossible–butwewillneedstrongpoliticalleinJunewheremembersnitsroleasao88WORLDTRADEREPORT2022Keymessages?Climatechangeisreshapingcountries’economicandtradeprospects,andisamajorthreattofuturegrowthandprosperity.Highertemperatures,risingsealevelsand?Tradeisaforcemultiplierforcountries’adaptationefforts,reducingcostsandincreasingimpact.Climateshockswillremaincostlyanddisruptive,buttradecanhelperprepareandrespondthroughaccesstotechnologiesandcriticalgoodsrelevantfortheuld?Tradecanreducethecostofmitigationandspeedupthelow-carbontransitionandthecreationofgreenjobs.Thoughtrade,likemostcurrenteconomicactivity,generatesGHGemissionsitalsocontributestoreducingthembyenablingaccesstocuttingedgedutthereisscopetodomoreWTOsimulations?Internationaltradecooperationcanmakeclimateactionsmoreeffective,andthelow-carbontransitionmorejust,byminimizingtradefrictionsandinvestorment99EXECUTIVESUMMARYExecutivesummaryClimatechangerepresentsaseverepervasiveandbateditcouldundomuchoftheprogressstatesandleast-developedcountries(LDCs)–areeactionstoadvanceajusttransitiontowardsalow-sexistentialthreattheWorldspellsoutbytheWTO,couldsupportandlowerthecostofelarketsdonotsufficetoaddressthethreatsfromerectintsdyieldatransitioncouldalsocreatemillionsofnewjobsinsiveeconomynotleastbecausemoreninBecausetheexistingbuild-upofGHGsinthefldamagesIPCCbThereportmakesthreekeypoints.First,whilestesGHGemissionstradeandtradepolicieslowWORLDTRADEREPORT2022Eventhoughclimatechangecanhaveprofoundnegativeimpactsoninternationaltrade,tradeandwell-designedtradepoliciesareessentialelementsofsoundclimatechangeadaptationstrategies.todecreaseonaveragebybetweenandpersodsinheavilyconcentratedglobalvaluechains(GVCs)anddisruptedtheglobalelectronicandedergeshtdcouldsufferfromreducedaccesstorawmaterials.stresistantcropvarieties,earlywarningsystemsandteshocks,suchasweatherforecasting,insurance,eenEXECUTIVESUMMARYFigure1:Greatercapacitytoadjusttoclimatechangetendstobeassociatedwithgreateropennesstotrade1.8eof,629).cesdonAlthoughtradegeneratesGHGemissions,tradeandtradepoliciescanbepartofthesolutionstosupportalow-carbontransition.worldshareofcarbondioxideCOemissionsoodsandservicesexportsdtoaccountforaround0percentofglobalcarbonemissionsineWORLDTRADEREPORT2022vicesinvolvedaswellastheenergysources,productiontsofthesetince990.AsignificantpartofthecostdeclineofsolarpanelsystemshasbeenattributedtoGVCs,whichonstagesindifferentcountriesWTOandedtsaionggedwouldbebettersupported–andaccelerated–byasingnumberbyotherpolicies,tradepoliciescanhelpcountriesandincreasetheambitionriffbarrierstendtobeoWTOFigure2:Supportmeasuresandtechnicalregulationsarethemostcommontrade-relatedclimatechangemitigationmeasures444415360338324312303122312332312009201020112018201920202012200920102011201820192020tionsOthermeasuresSources:Authors’calculation,basedontheWTOEnvironmentalDatabase.Note:Thecategory“technicalregulations”includesconformityassessmentprocedures.Onenotifiedmeasurecancovermorethanonetypeofpolicy.simulationanalysissuggeststhateliminatingtariffsandreducingnon-tariffmeasuresonsomeenergy-relatedenvironmentalgoodsandenvironmentallypreferableproductscouldincreaseglobalexportsintheseproductsbyUS$109billion(5percent)andUS$10.3billion(14percent),respectively,by2030.Theresultingimprovementsinenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergyadoptionareestimatedtoreducenetcarbonemissionsby0.6percent,whiletheknock-oneffectsofacceleratingthespreadofenvironmentalinnovationwoulddomuchmore,includingincreasingthedemandforancillaryservicesrelatingtothesale,delivery,installationandmaintenanceofenvironmentaltechnologies.Thatsaid,harnessingthefullpotentialofinternationaltradeinrenewableenergyandotherenvironmentalgoodsandservicesalsorequiresambitiousclimatepoliciesandactionstoupgradepower-generation,transmissionanddistributioninfrastructureaswellastobuildawell-functioningqualityinfrastructure.Improvingtheambitionandeffectivenessofclimatechangeactionrequiresgreaterinternationaltradecooperation.Addressingclimatechangerequiresglobalcooperationonallfronts,andinternationaltradecooperation,attheWTOandelsewhere,isanintegralpartoftheefforts.Thebottom-upinternationalclimateregime,withnationallydeterminedcontributionsandmitigationactions,encouragesbroad-basedparticipationandunderlinestheurgencyofclimateaction.Butitalsoresultsinwidelyvaryinglevelsofclimateambitionacrossjurisdictions,withtheattendantrisksofcarbonleakageandcompetitivenessloss,especiallyincarbon-intensiveandtrade-exposedsectors.Theseriskshavepromptedsomecountriestoconsiderbordercarbonadjustmentmeasures.Uncoordinatedtrade-relatedclimatepolicies,however,couldgiverisetotradetensionsandheightenmarketplaceuncertaintyinwaysthatdiscouragemuch-neededWORLDTRADEREPORT2022roballevelasnotedabovetheopenandsWTObodiessuchastheCommitteeonTradeandeiderrights,asprovidedbyWTOrules,isalsoessentialberscandomuchmoretoenhanceedntriesandareasthethMinisterialConferenceinJune2022,WTOenningtopursueglobalpublicgoodsthanatcorrectingaparticulardouldinvolveanticsseensincethestartofthepandemic;itwouldalsoincludingtheWTO,whichtracksthesupplyofkeyFigure3:AidforTradedisbursementsrelatedtoclimatechangehaveincreasedoverthepastdecade2013201420152016201720192.92013201420152016201720ansportandstorageAgricultureforestryandshingOthersSources:Authors’calculations,basedonOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentDAC-CRS(DevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeCreditorReportingSystem)AidActivitiesDatabase.Note:Onlyprojectswithanexplicitobjectiveofadaptingtoormitigatingclimatechangeandprojectsidentifyingclimatechangeasimportantbutsecondaryobjectiveareconsideredasclimatechange-relatedofficialdevelopmentassistance.Projectscanbecross-cuttingandhavebothadaptationandmitigationobjectives.coordinatedpolicyresponseswhenneededtopreventmarketsfromseizingupAtthe12thMinisterialConference,WTOmembersvowedtoaddresstheglobalfoodsecuritychallengesbyexemptingfromexportrestrictionsfoodboughtbytheWorldFoodProgrammeforhumanitarianpurposesandpledgingtofacilitatetradeinfood,fertilizersandotheragriculturalinputs.Implementingthesedecisionscouldcontributetomanagingtheknock-oneffectsofsurgingfoodpricesduringacrisis,thusincreasingfoodsecurity.Fourth,improvingtheabilitytounderstandandmanageclimate-relatedrisksandinvestmentopportunitieswouldimprovethesynergiesbetweenclimatefinanceandAidforTrade.ClimatefinancetodevelopingcountriescontinuestofallshortoftheUS$100billiongoalfor2020(OECD,2022a)andhasnotachievedthebalancebetweenadaptationandmitigationfinancesetoutintheParisAgreement(UNEP,2021a,2021b).However,theAidforTradeinitiative,supportedbytheWTOandotherorganizations,canhelpdevelopingcountries,particularlyLDCs,tobuildclimate-resilienttradecapacityandinfrastructure,andsupporttradepoliciestofosteralow-carbontransition.Between2013to2020,AidforTradedisbursementsrelatedtoclimateactiontotalledUS$96billion,withalargershareofthedisbursementsdirectedatclimatemitigation(seeFigure3).Finally,reinforcingtheWTO’sexistingcooperationwithinternationalandregionalorganizations,includingintheareasofclimateriskprevention,climate-induceddisasterrelief,transportdecarbonizationandclimatefinance,isimportanttoadvancetradecooperationonclimatechange.Overthepastfewyears,WTOmembershavestartedtoaddresssomeoftheseissues.However,thescaleandurgencyoftheclimatecrisisdemandadditionaleffortsinsupportofamoreinclusiveandjusttransitiontoalow-carboneconomyandamoreresilientfuture.AIntroductionTacklingclimatechangerequiresatransformationoftheglobaleconomy.Whilelimitingconsumptionandchanginglifestyleswouldhelp,reducinggreenhousegasemissionstonetzerowillbeimpossiblewithouttechnologicalandstructuralchangeonaglobalscale.Thistransformationwillinvolvecosts,butalsoopportunities–notjusttoheadoffanenvironmentalcatastrophe,buttoreinventthewaytheworldgeneratesenergy,manufacturesproductsandgrowsfood.Justastradehelpedtodriveeconomicprogressinthepast–byincentivizinginnovation,leveragingcomparativeadvantagesandexpandingaccesstoresourcesandtechnologies–tradecanplayacentralroleindrivingprogresstowardsalow-carbonglobaleconomy.Butharnessingthepotentialoftradewilldemandnewpoliciesandmorecooperation.2022023Contents1.Thenextgreattransformation2.Harnessingthetransformativepoweroftrade3.OverviewofthereportWORLDTRADEREPORT2022nhousegasGHGemissionsneedhrnlwithoutcuttingandindustrializationallpoweredbyfossilfuelslfcenturiesofandheworldremainsdependentonGHGemissions.Yet,whiletechnologicalandeconomicprogresshas“fuelled”theclimatecrisis,itisalsoindispensable tomitigatingandovercomingit.Replacingfossil fuelswithrenewableenergies–solar,windandgeothermalpower,andothers–isessentialtoavoidandreduceGHGemissions,asarestepstoecarbonizetransportationsteelproductioncementecosystemslesswastefulandmoreresource-efficientoverall.Adaptingtotheadverseeffectsofclimatechangesystems(UNFCCC,2016a).solarpanelsandelectriccarstoverticalfarmsandelectricarcfurnaces–alreadyexist,thechallengeievedstoragearealsoadvancingrapidly.ThentherearetheItisalsoimportanttofocusnotjustonwhatreeyomcansignificantlysloworblockeconomicprogress.ONCLIMATECHANGEANDONmt(R&D)inthe1960sand70s;Europeanpoliciesto1990sand2000s;andChineseeffortstoimprovedisfuelsBrakarzInshortthediffusionoflow-wtoaveorrjustmentcoststransition–acrosssectorsrangingfrompowercapture–alreadytotalledUS$1.3trillionin2021,(IEA,2022b).InordertoreduceGHGemissionstoytred30percentofelectricitygenerationin2021(IEA,9WORLDTRADEREPORT2022Aprojectsthatant2026tobe50percenthigherthanbetween2015energydemandisgrowingalmostasfastsofossil2022c).TheIEAestimatesthatthecurrentpaceoficesesndlewilltradeplayinthetransitiontoalowgrowth.Butinthefuture,withtherightpoliciesinFigureA.1:Fossilfuelsremainthedominantenergysourcedespiteincreasinguseofrenewables180018061812181818241800180618121818182418301836184218481854186018661872187818841890189619021908191419201926193219381944195019561962196819741980198319921998200420102016140,000120000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000TraditionalbiomassCoalOilGasNuclearRenewable220ONCLIMATECHANGEANDONrvedownthecostsofesince2010,whiletheefficiencyofsolarpanelshasandfromoffshorewindby13percent.Thepriceof1990,whiletheirenergydensityhasnearlytripledinjust10years.alf(IEA,2020).Asaresultofthesedramaticpriceandrplants(IEA,2022a;WTOandIRENA,2021).ngeishandusingsolarpanels,forexample,thepricefallscleantechnologiestradeplaysacentralFigureA.2:Thepriceofrenewableshasplungedinthelast10yearss200920192121WORLDTRADEREPORT2022tissignificantthatbetween0and2020,exportsButthecontributionoftradeandtradepolicytoasupplychains.OpeninguptradeacrossarangeofnomiessyapositiveroleinscalingupnewtechnologiesandButsubsidiescanalsobeusedtosupportcarbon-theclimatecrisisevenworse.Inthecaseoffossilfuelsubsidies–whichamountedtoUS$440theyarediscouragingthemwithcarbontaxesandsmeasuresbothnationallyandgloballyandFigureA.3:Astheuseofsolarpanelexportsincreases,theirpricefallst990088776655443322110001995200020052010Source:Authors’calculations,basedondataonsolarPVmodulecostsfromKavlak,McNerneyandTrancik(2018)andBloomberg222ONCLIMATECHANGEANDONsubsidiesandcarbonpricesareessentiallythelosetoseparatecarbonctionsworldwidewhichriskscreatingaesultAlthoughWTOrulesespeciallythoseconcerningeexample.Thechallengeistofindapolicymixthateneedtodiscouragecarbonemissionstoytodrivingthisepartofthesolutiontotacklingclimatechange,anddiscussesionwherethecostsandenlyandequitablyshared(UNFCCC),thisreportunderscoreshowthegoalseATheirhgtowellbelow2°C–andpreferablytobelow1.5°C–isessentialtolimittheconsequencesofclimatechange,pastGHGemissionshavealreadycaused,ealevelstorise,andhaveincreasedextremeweathertheeffectsofsuchchangesontradecosts,supplysve223224WORLDTRADEREPORT2022FigureA.4:Therelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandtradeiscomplexandmultifacetedontoanestheroleldisadvantagesforsomeeconomies.SuchchangestheWTOcanplayanimportantroleinsupportingitputsapriceoncarbonemissionsasameansofdeinonecountrytoproducegoodsandservicesaredtclimatechangeChapterFdiscusseshowtradeONCLIMATECHANGEANDONEndnotestoasclosetozeroaspossible,sothatanyGHGsthatchaswatervapourConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)are:CO2fromfossilfuelcombustionandindustrialprocessesCO2-FFI);netCO2emissionsfromlanduse,land-usechangeoxideNO;andfluorinatedgases(F-gases),comprisinghydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs),ryGHGemittedthroughhumanactivities,methanehasveddecliningcostsofrenewableseveryyearsince20002525BTheroleoftradeinadaptingtoclimatechangeWhilereducinggreenhousegasemissionsisessentialtolimittheconsequencesofclimatechange,climatechangeisalreadyhavingamajorimpactontheenvironment,peopleand,asaresult,theglobaleconomy.Thischapterexplorestheimpactsofclimatechangeoninternationaltradeanddiscussestherolethattrade,tradepolicyandinternationalcooperationcanplayinsupportingclimatechangeadaptationstrategies.Climatechangeincreasestradecostsanddisruptsproductionandsupplychains.However,tradeandtradepolicies,inconjunctionwithrelevantpoliciesandinternationalcooperation,canhelptoalleviatesomeoftheimpactsofclimatechange,includingonfoodsecurity,bycontributingtoenhancingeconomicresilience.28283439472828343947Contents1.Introduction2.Whydoesclimatechangeadaptationmatter?3.Internationaltradeandtradepolicycansupportclimatechangeadaptationstrategies4.Internationalcooperationisessentialtoassistcountriesinadaptingtoclimatechange5.ConclusionKeyKeyfactsandfindingse28WORLDTRADEREPORT28eruencesofnatechangecouldstressalone(WHO,2018).Itmayalsohaveseveresticrisingsealevelsordrought,especiallyincountrieseawarmingofbetween1.6°Cand3.6°Cabovepre-balannualGDPlossesofbetween1and3.3percentrelativeeBoxB.1:ClimatechangeimpactsonsecurityintheSahelrhaffectthepooresthouseholdsdisproportionatelyInthiscontextrisksksB.THEROLEOFTRADEB.THEROLEOFTRADEINADAPTINGTOCLIMATECHANGEyconsistentllthlowerresiliencetolossesnueto(i)Climatechangewillalterpatternsofcomparativeadvantage,leavingsomeeconomiesatadisadvantagefwaterbetweenthedrisksofaccidentsandofheatexhaustionorstrokeabove25°C,labourproductivityfallsby2percentSeppanenFiskandFaulkner,2003).OnemeasurepanIPCCofglobalspreadacrosscountries(Schenker,2013;SchenkerelsanincreaseinglobalranAfricatopercent22930WORLD30WORLDTRADEREPORT2022WORLDTRADEREPORT2022OPINIONOPINIONPIECEByDanaeKyriakopouloueniorPolicyFellowattheGranthamResearchInstituteonClimate ary itutionsForumSustainablePolicyInstituteandClimateinaction:implicationsforinternationaltrade 3030B.B.THEROLEOFTRADEINADAPTINGTOCLIMATECHANGEonsofCby2060,RCAcouldincreaseforsomeeconomies.s.CLIMATECHANGEANDINTERNATIONALTRADE(ii)Climatechangeislikelytoincreasetradecostsunevenlyacrossregionsandsealevelrisesincoastalregions(EEA,2017;IPCC,accountsfor80percentofworldtradebyvolumeckedstdouble,from385to691keyportsglobally(outofGreaterheatstressandincreasedcoastalfloodingnhaveast3131WORLDTRADEREPORT2022FigureB.1:Economieswithlessdiversifiedexportstendtobemoreexposedtoclimatechange0.250.350.450.550.650.75NorthAmericaSub-SaharanAfricaSouthAsiaSource:Authors’calculations,basedonND-GAINClimateVulnerabilityIndexandIMFExportDiversificationIndexfor2014.Note:Theclimatechangeexposureindexmeasureshowmuchsocietiesandeconomieswillbestressedbythephysicalimpactsofclimatechange.Thesizeofthedotsrepresentseachcountry’svulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Theclimatechangevulnerabilityindexconsiderscountries’exposuretoclimatechange,theirsensitivitytorelatedimpacts,andtheiradaptivecapacity.5Theexportdiversificationindexrangesfromzero(nodiversification)toone(completediversification).332tradeflowsthroughalimitednumberofportsandtraderoutes,areespeciallyvulnerableinthisregard(Bahagia,SandeeandMeeuws,2013;Izaguirreetal.,2021).Forinstance,theParanáRiver,whichtransports90percentofParaguay’sinternationaltradeofagriculturalgoods,85percentofArgentina’sand50percentofBolivia’s,nowfrequentlyreachesverylowlevelsduetorecurrentseveredroughts.Shallowwaterforcescargoshipstooperateathalforlowercapacityinordertonavigateandtransportagriculturalcommoditiesandothergoods,causingsignificantcongestionanddelaysaroundthewaterwaysandports(BatistaandGilbert,2021).Otherrivers,includingtheDanubeandtheRhine,areexperiencingsimilarsituationswithlowwaterlevels,makingitimpossibleformanyvesselstooperate.Althoughclimateimpactontransportationisexpectedtobelargelynegative,climatechangecouldpositivelyaffectsomeregionaltransportationnetworks(WTO,2019).Forinstance,areductioninsea-icemayleadtotheavailabilityofnewandshortershippingroutes.